{"id":441886,"date":"2026-11-11T09:40:06","date_gmt":"2026-11-11T02:40:06","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/market-news\/three-drivers-setting-golds-tone-as-december-fed-hike-bets-build-according-to-standard-chartered-441886\/"},"modified":"2026-11-11T09:40:06","modified_gmt":"2026-11-11T02:40:06","slug":"three-drivers-setting-golds-tone-as-december-fed-hike-bets-build-according-to-standard-chartered","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/market-news\/three-drivers-setting-golds-tone-as-december-fed-hike-bets-build-according-to-standard-chartered-441886\/","title":{"rendered":"Three drivers setting gold\u2019s tone as December Fed hike bets build, according to Standard Chartered"},"content":{"rendered":"<div>\n<p dir=\"ltr\">Gold\u2019s drop on the CPI data shows how tightly the metal is now tied to Fed hike pricing, and therefore to oil. With a December quarter-point hike fully priced, any further rise in odds of a half-point move is likely to pressure bullion toward the support Standard Chartered has flagged, near $3,886. Equities are now a third driver: risk-off moves in stocks have not reliably supported gold during this conflict. The bank\u2019s call for a softer dollar and steady central bank buying gives longer-term holders a reason to stay put, but the near-term path runs through December\u2019s decision.<\/p>\n<p dir=\"ltr\">&#8212;<\/p>\n<p dir=\"ltr\">Fed speak is hawkish:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/investinglive.com\/central-banks\/fed-s-goolsbee-calls-cpi-borderline-disturbing-flags-three-inflation-worries\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"follow\">Fed\u2019s Goolsbee calls CPI \u2018borderline disturbing\u2019, flags three inflation worries<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/investinglive.com\/central-banks\/fed-s-paulson-backs-further-gradual-rate-hikes-names-three-triggers-for-faster-action\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"follow\">Fed\u2019s Paulson backs further gradual rate hikes, names three triggers for faster action<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/investinglive.com\/central-banks\/more-from-fed-s-bowman-shifts-focus-to-inflation-wants-ai-and-middle-east-risks-to-ease-first\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"follow\">More from Fed\u2019s Bowman: Shifts focus to inflation, wants AI and Middle East risks to ease first<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p dir=\"ltr\">&#8212;<\/p>\n<p dir=\"ltr\">\nGold has kept its footing above $4,000, but with oil feeding Fed hike bets, Standard Chartered\u2019s $4,700 target depends on a softer dollar arriving later rather than sooner.<\/p>\n<p dir=\"ltr\">Summary:<\/p>\n<ul dir=\"ltr\">\n<li>Standard Chartered said gold continues to trade above the key $4,000 level, with oil, inflation risks and equities setting the tone<\/li>\n<li>Spot gold fell nearly 3% to around $4,020 on Tuesday after October CPI rose 0.4% month on month, against 0.3% expected<\/li>\n<li>A December quarter-point Fed hike is fully priced, and half-point odds rose to around 10%<\/li>\n<li>The bank stays overweight gold, with three-month and 12-month targets of $4,350 and $4,700<\/li>\n<li>It expects Fed hikes in December and H1 2027 to a peak of 4.25% to 4.50%, and has flagged $3,886 as key support<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p dir=\"ltr\">\nGold is still holding above the key $4,000 an ounce level despite a sharp sell-off after hotter-than-expected US inflation data, Standard Chartered said. Crude oil, inflation risks and equity markets are setting the tone, according to the bank, as traders focus on the Federal Reserve\u2019s December meeting.<\/p>\n<p dir=\"ltr\">Spot gold fell nearly 3% on Tuesday to trade around $4,020 an ounce in the US session, while December futures dropped close to 2% to around $4,035. The metal had opened above $4,100 for the first time since October 22, but reversed after October consumer prices rose 0.4% on the month, above the 0.3% expected. The data lifted the dollar and Treasury yields, raising the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion.<\/p>\n<p dir=\"ltr\">Rate expectations shifted with the release. A quarter-point Fed hike in December is now fully priced, and the probability of a half-point move rose to around 10% from zero before the data, according to CME FedWatch. Fed Governor Christopher Waller had said earlier that a hot CPI reading could lead him to support a bigger increase.<\/p>\n<p dir=\"ltr\">Standard Chartered\u2019s longer-term view remains constructive. In a report earlier this month, the bank said it remains overweight gold but trimmed its three-month target to $4,350 an ounce and its 12-month target to $4,700. It expects the Fed to raise rates in December and again in the first half of 2027, taking the target range to a peak of 4.25% to 4.50% before easing in the second half of next year. A softer dollar and continued buying by emerging-market central banks should drive gains over 12 months, it said, even though rising bond yields and a firmer dollar have been recent headwinds.<\/p>\n<p dir=\"ltr\">The bank has also flagged downside risk in the near term. In late October, it warned that gold needs to hold support around $3,886 after slipping below $4,000, or risk a deeper correction.<\/p>\n<p dir=\"ltr\">The pattern this year has been clear: rising oil prices from the Iran war have fed inflation and Fed hike expectations, and gold has struggled under that pressure rather than rallying as a haven. With December\u2019s decision looming, oil and the next inflation data will decide whether the $4,000 floor holds.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p dir=\"ltr\">\n<p>                            This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.<\/p><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Gold\u2019s drop on the CPI data shows how tightly the metal is now tied to Fed hike pricing, and therefore to oil. With a December quarter-point hike fully priced, any further rise&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":216,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[86],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-441886","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-market-news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/441886","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/216"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=441886"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/441886\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=441886"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=441886"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=441886"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}