{"id":441920,"date":"2026-11-11T13:40:12","date_gmt":"2026-11-11T06:40:12","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/market-news\/nasdaq-today-says-fold-that-short-441920\/"},"modified":"2026-11-11T13:40:12","modified_gmt":"2026-11-11T06:40:12","slug":"nasdaq-today-says-fold-that-short","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/market-news\/nasdaq-today-says-fold-that-short-441920\/","title":{"rendered":"Nasdaq Today says: “Fold that short.”"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Opinion: You don’t want to be shorting this market (Nasdaq) when the price has reclaimed this channel (daily timeframe).<\/p>\n<\/p>\n

Nasdaq futures may be reversing the selloff. Here’s where the bullish case could fail<\/p>\n

After last week’s technology-stock rout, Nasdaq futures are showing early signs of a bullish recovery. Improving price action and buying pressure suggest that sellers may be losing control, but the critical question is whether buyers can defend the recovery or whether another sharp decline is coming.<\/p>\n

Nasdaq-100 futures (NQ) are beginning to challenge the bearish narrative that dominated last week’s technology-stock selloff. The latest price and order-flow evidence favors an early bullish recovery, but not a confirmed long-term reversal. For traders, the area around 27,780-27,813 could be particularly important in determining whether the recovery survives.<\/p>\n

And there is an important lesson here: You can be right about the direction of the Nasdaq and still lose money by buying at the wrong time.<\/p>\n

Is the Nasdaq selloff turning into something more bullish?<\/p>\n

The sharp technology-stock decline on Thursday, November 5, left many investors questioning whether the market was entering a deeper correction.<\/p>\n

Concerns surrounding artificial intelligence spending, stretched valuations and the financial demands of AI infrastructure have made investors especially sensitive to weakness in companies such as Nvidia.<\/p>\n

But markets rarely move in straight lines, and the evidence is starting to change.<\/p>\n

Nasdaq futures recovered significantly after reaching approximately 26,366.50 on November 6. Another decline toward 27,516 on November 10 failed to produce a sustained breakdown.<\/p>\n

The subsequent recovery was accompanied by improving hourly price action and increasingly constructive buying pressure.<\/p>\n

By approximately 00:29 Eastern Time on November 11, NQ was trading around 28,227, having reached an observed high of 28,233.25.<\/p>\n

Those are historical overnight observations, not continuously updated market quotations.<\/p>\n

What interests me is not simply that Nasdaq futures have rebounded. It is how the market has behaved when sellers attempted to push prices lower, and how effectively buyers subsequently advanced the price.<\/p>\n

The AI rebound is spreading beyond Wall Street<\/p>\n

There are other developments worth connecting to the futures picture.<\/p>\n

In Asia, technology shares have been recovering. South Korea’s KOSDAQ has jumped nearly 5%, adding to evidence that appetite for some AI-related investments is returning.<\/p>\n

The broader regional developments are covered in investingLive’s Asia-Pacific market news report on the KOSDAQ rebound and oil markets<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Meanwhile, CoreWeave stock surged approximately 13% following its earnings announcement<\/a>.<\/p>\n

The company’s strong revenue growth and higher guidance provide evidence that demand for AI computing infrastructure remains substantial.<\/p>\n

However, as the CoreWeave analysis explains, extraordinary growth does not eliminate concerns about financing costs or guarantee a sustainable stock-price recovery.<\/p>\n

This distinction is important.<\/p>\n

Investors can become more optimistic about AI infrastructure demand while remaining concerned about profitability, valuations and financing.<\/p>\n

Similarly, improving sentiment toward AI stocks can help Nasdaq futures recover without guaranteeing that the broader market has established a durable bullish trend.<\/p>\n

There is also a macroeconomic complication. The October US consumer price index<\/a>, released November 10, increased 0.4% month over month, with core inflation rising 0.3%.<\/p>\n

Inflation and interest-rate expectations remain meaningful risks for growth-stock valuations.<\/p>\n

Something interesting is happening beneath the Nasdaq recovery<\/p>\n

One of the most useful ways to assess a market recovery is to compare price movement with the buying and selling activity taking place beneath it.<\/p>\n

An important observation occurred during the 10:00 a.m. Eastern hour on November 10.<\/p>\n

Nasdaq futures advanced approximately 362 points, despite recording negative net trading Delta.<\/p>\n

What does that mean?<\/p>\n

Delta measures the difference between aggressive buying volume and aggressive selling volume.<\/p>\n

A negative Delta means that more volume was executed aggressively on the selling side than on the buying side.<\/p>\n

Yet prices advanced.<\/p>\n

That apparent contradiction teaches us something important: Aggressive selling does not automatically produce falling prices.<\/p>\n

The market’s response to buying and selling pressure can sometimes be more informative than the pressure itself.<\/p>\n

In the subsequent recovery, several hourly advances were accompanied by increasingly consistent positive Delta.<\/p>\n

That is a more straightforward bullish combination. Buyers were becoming more aggressive, and prices were responding by moving higher.<\/p>\n

Additional positive buying-pressure observations during the November 10 evening session strengthened the case that the recovery was attracting participation.<\/p>\n

However, the latest completed Delta observations preceded the final upward extension in the price data. That extension should not be described as independently confirmed by fresh Delta readings.<\/p>\n

None of this proves institutional accumulation or guarantees another rally.<\/p>\n

It does suggest that the bearish conditions visible during last week’s selloff are no longer behaving quite the same way.<\/p>\n

Nasdaq futures: The 27,780-27,813 area deserves attention<\/p>\n

This is probably the most practical part of the analysis for swing traders.<\/p>\n

Two important market references from November 10 are relatively close together:<\/p>\n

27,780: Previous-session Point of Control<\/p>\n

The Point of Control, or POC, identifies the price associated with the highest trading volume within a defined volume profile.<\/p>\n

It helps illustrate where substantial trading activity was concentrated.<\/p>\n

27,813: Previous-session VWAP<\/p>\n

VWAP stands for Volume-Weighted Average Price. It measures the average trading price, weighted by volume.<\/p>\n

Traders use it to assess whether the market is trading above or below an important volume-weighted reference.<\/p>\n

Together, these measurements establish an area around 27,780-27,813 that could help distinguish a healthy recovery from a potentially failing one.<\/p>\n

If Nasdaq futures remain comfortably above this region, the early bullish interpretation retains meaningful support.<\/p>\n

But sustained trading below the area would make me reconsider whether buyers are really establishing control.<\/p>\n

The distinction between a temporary penetration and sustained trading below support matters.<\/p>\n

A sharp downward move that quickly reverses is not necessarily equivalent to a breakdown that holds and attracts further selling.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n

What about 27,600?<\/p>\n

There is a wider reference around 27,600, just below a previous-session value-area boundary near 27,619.<\/p>\n

For traders evaluating a broader swing, that provides additional room for volatility.<\/p>\n

But there is a trade-off.<\/p>\n

Using wider structural tolerance means accepting substantially more movement against a bullish view before deciding that the recovery may be failing.<\/p>\n

For my early-reversal interpretation, I prefer paying attention to the 27,780-27,813 region rather than automatically allowing the market all the way down to 27,600 before reconsidering.<\/p>\n

These are analytical reference levels, not universal stop-loss instructions.<\/p>\n

The most important trading lesson: Being early versus being right<\/p>\n

Imagine two traders examining the same Nasdaq recovery.<\/p>\n

The first wants substantial confirmation before considering a bullish position.<\/p>\n

The second is willing to explore the bullish possibility earlier, accepting the risk that the apparent reversal may fail.<\/p>\n

Neither approach is automatically superior.<\/p>\n

The first trader may avoid several false starts, but also risk entering only after much of the rally has happened.<\/p>\n

The second may obtain more favorable positioning, but may experience more failed reversal attempts.<\/p>\n

There is no free lunch.<\/p>\n

Now consider another situation.<\/p>\n

A trader reads a bullish Nasdaq analysis when futures are near 28,300.<\/p>\n

The trader buys immediately, without considering how far the market has already advanced.<\/p>\n

Nasdaq subsequently pulls back toward 28,100 or 28,000.<\/p>\n

The bullish market interpretation might still be reasonable. But the trader could already be facing an uncomfortable loss, particularly when using leveraged futures.<\/p>\n

This is why we should separate two different decisions:<\/p>\n

    \n
  1. \n

    Market direction: Is the evidence becoming more bullish or bearish?<\/p>\n<\/li>\n

  2. \n

    Trade execution: Is the current price attractive enough, relative to the risk and potential reward, to justify a position?<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

    A bullish outlook is not an instruction to chase a rally.<\/p>\n

    Sometimes the better decision is to wait for a pullback, a successful retest of support, or further confirmation.<\/p>\n

    And sometimes the market simply moves higher without providing the entry a trader wanted.<\/p>\n

    Missing a move does not automatically make waiting the wrong decision.<\/p>\n

    Three scenarios for Nasdaq futures<\/p>\n

    1. The bullish recovery gains strength<\/p>\n

    If NQ establishes sustained trading above approximately 28,233-28,250, that would provide another encouraging indication.<\/p>\n

    Constructive hourly closes and continued positive buying pressure would strengthen the interpretation.<\/p>\n

    The next historical upside references include approximately 28,465 and the November 4 high around 28,969.<\/p>\n

    These are areas to monitor, not guaranteed price targets.<\/p>\n

    2. Sellers regain control<\/p>\n

    A decline beneath approximately 28,060-28,100 would be an initial warning that short-term momentum is deteriorating.<\/p>\n

    More importantly, sustained trading beneath 27,780-27,813 would weaken the preferred early bullish framework.<\/p>\n

    Further weakness below 27,600 would represent a more substantial deterioration.<\/p>\n

    The November 10 low around 27,516 would then become another relevant downside reference.<\/p>\n

    In that situation, the bullish interpretation needs to change with the evidence, rather than being defended simply because it once looked promising.<\/p>\n

    3. Nasdaq consolidates instead<\/p>\n

    A third outcome is that Nasdaq moves sideways without establishing meaningful new highs or breaking important support.<\/p>\n

    Buying and selling pressure may alternate while prices remain within a range.<\/p>\n

    That is not necessarily bullish or bearish.<\/p>\n

    It may simply mean the market has not yet decided which direction it wants to pursue.<\/p>\n

    For traders, doing nothing can be a perfectly reasonable response when there is no attractive opportunity with clearly defined risk.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n

    What does this mean for Nvidia and other technology stocks?<\/p>\n

    Nasdaq futures can offer useful clues about investors’ broader appetite for growth and technology exposure.<\/p>\n

    A sustained improvement in Nasdaq price action could encourage investors to investigate whether selling pressure is also easing in individual technology stocks.<\/p>\n

    But we should not confuse the two.<\/p>\n

    A bullish Nasdaq recovery does not automatically mean Nvidia, CoreWeave, Microsoft or every other technology company will rise.<\/p>\n

    Their earnings, valuations, financial positions and individual technical structures still matter.<\/p>\n

    CoreWeave’s post-earnings volatility illustrates the point particularly well. An individual company can experience dramatic price movements even while the broader index follows a different path.<\/p>\n

    Futures can help establish market context, but they should complement rather than replace stock-specific analysis.<\/p>\n

    My conclusion: The bears may be losing their advantage, but don’t confuse that with a buy signal<\/p>\n

    The Nasdaq’s recent recovery has developed beyond a single positive candle.<\/p>\n

    We have improving hourly price action, signs that aggressive selling is producing less sustained downside progress, and increasingly constructive buying pressure.<\/p>\n

    Taken together, these observations make me less comfortable with the assumption that aggressively shorting Nasdaq remains the better side of the market.<\/p>\n

    That does not mean another selloff is impossible.<\/p>\n

    The broader technical damage has not been fully repaired, and investors continue to face genuine uncertainties involving AI spending, inflation and technology valuations.<\/p>\n

    For now, the 27,780-27,813 area provides an important reference for assessing the health of the early recovery. Around 27,600 offers a wider structural boundary.<\/p>\n

    The bigger lesson, however, applies to virtually any market.<\/p>\n

    Good trading analysis is not about being certain of what happens next. It is about recognizing when the evidence changes, knowing what would invalidate your interpretation, and understanding that a promising market direction does not automatically provide an attractive trade entry.<\/p>\n

    Market analysis based on Nasdaq futures observations through November 11, 2026, 00:29 ET. The outlook is conditional and should be reassessed as new trading data become available.<\/p>\n

    Educational only. Trade at your own risk.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n

    This article was written by Itai Levitan at investinglive.com.<\/p><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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