{"id":442003,"date":"2026-11-12T10:40:08","date_gmt":"2026-11-12T03:40:08","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/market-news\/icymi-opec-output-jumps-nearly-2-million-bpd-toward-prewar-levels-as-saudi-production-rebounds-442003\/"},"modified":"2026-11-12T10:40:08","modified_gmt":"2026-11-12T03:40:08","slug":"icymi-opec-output-jumps-nearly-2-million-bpd-toward-prewar-levels-as-saudi-production-rebounds","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/market-news\/icymi-opec-output-jumps-nearly-2-million-bpd-toward-prewar-levels-as-saudi-production-rebounds-442003\/","title":{"rendered":"ICYMI: OPEC output jumps nearly 2 million bpd toward prewar levels as Saudi production rebounds"},"content":{"rendered":"<div>\n<p dir=\"ltr\">The supply recovery takes some of the edge off shortage fears and helps explain why Brent dipped below $90 earlier this week. But the rebound in prices on Wednesday shows that the war risk premium is far from gone. With confirmed Hormuz transits still a fraction of normal, any escalation that hits pipelines or Red Sea routes would quickly reverse the gains in supply. Aramco\u2019s deeper discount to Asia points to weaker pricing power for Gulf crude and is a modest positive for Asian refiners. For the wider macro picture, oil remains the main channel through which the war feeds inflation. Steadier supply would ease pressure on the Fed and the BoJ, while renewed disruption would harden the case for further hikes.<\/p>\n<p dir=\"ltr\">&#8211;<\/p>\n<p dir=\"ltr\">\nOPEC has found ways around the Strait of Hormuz, but with transits through the strait still about a quarter of normal, supply is recovering on workarounds, not on peace.<\/p>\n<p dir=\"ltr\">Summary:<\/p>\n<ul dir=\"ltr\">\n<li>OPEC crude output rose by nearly 2 million bpd in October to about 27.2 million bpd, against about 28.6 million before the Iran war, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.wsj.com\/business\/energy-oil\/opecs-oil-production-nears-prewar-levels-on-saudi-rebound-70ffcc13\" rel=\"follow\">The Wall Street Journal<\/a> (gated) reported, citing OPEC data<\/li>\n<li>Saudi Arabia raised production to around 10.6 million bpd from about 8.4 million in September<\/li>\n<li>Pipelines, ship-to-ship transfers and US military support have helped Gulf producers sustain exports<\/li>\n<li>Confirmed Hormuz transits averaged about 4 million bpd last week, compared with roughly 17 million before the war, according to Kpler<\/li>\n<li>Saudi Aramco cut December Arab Light prices to Asia by $2 a barrel to a $7 discount to Oman\/Dubai<\/li>\n<li>Brent rose 1.5% to around $93 on Wednesday, and OPEC left its demand forecasts unchanged<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p dir=\"ltr\">\nOPEC\u2019s crude production climbed back toward prewar levels in October, with Saudi Arabia leading a sharp rebound, The Wall Street Journal reported, citing OPEC\u2019s latest monthly data. Alternative pipelines, ship-to-ship transfers and other workarounds allowed Gulf producers to keep oil flowing despite continued attacks on shipping.<\/p>\n<p dir=\"ltr\">Output from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries rose by nearly 2 million barrels a day to about 27.2 million barrels a day last month. That compares with about 28.6 million in February, before the Iran war began. Saudi Arabia, the group\u2019s de facto leader, raised production to around 10.6 million barrels a day from about 8.4 million in September.<\/p>\n<p dir=\"ltr\">More than eight months into the conflict, US military support, tanker-to-tanker transfers and cross-country pipelines have helped producers sustain exports. They have done so even as vessels in the Strait of Hormuz face repeated attacks and the Houthis threaten Red Sea traffic. Saudi crude exports averaged around 7 million barrels a day in October, according to Kpler data. That was slightly lower than September but still above the kingdom\u2019s 2025 average of about 6.2 million. Loadings from Saudi Arabia\u2019s eastern terminals on the Gulf coast have picked up again, after exports shifted toward Red Sea ports earlier in the war.<\/p>\n<p dir=\"ltr\">The strait itself remains the bottleneck. Before the war, it carried around a fifth of the world\u2019s oil and liquefied natural gas. Confirmed transits averaged about 4 million barrels a day over the past week, compared with roughly 17 million before the conflict, Kpler data show. Those figures are preliminary, though, and some tankers cross with their transponders switched off.<\/p>\n<p dir=\"ltr\">Gulf producers are discounting heavily to win buyers and offset high tanker and freight costs. Saudi Aramco cut its December official selling price for Arab Light crude to Asia by $2 a barrel, to a $7 discount to the Oman\/Dubai benchmark.<\/p>\n<p dir=\"ltr\">The data arrived as oil prices rebounded. Brent rose 1.5% to around $93 a barrel on Wednesday, after dipping below $90 earlier in the week. West Texas Intermediate gained 1.6% to about $87. Ongoing attacks and uncertainty over US-Iran peace talks tempered hopes of de-escalation.<\/p>\n<p dir=\"ltr\">OPEC kept its demand forecasts unchanged. It expects global consumption to rise by 180,000 barrels a day this year and 2.55 million barrels a day next year. Key OPEC+ members agreed earlier this month to hold output steady in December. The recovery in supply eases the worst of the shortage fears. But with Hormuz flows still a fraction of normal, the market remains exposed to any fresh disruption.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p dir=\"ltr\">\n<p>                            This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.<\/p><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The supply recovery takes some of the edge off shortage fears and helps explain why Brent dipped below $90 earlier this week. But the rebound in prices on Wednesday shows that the&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":216,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[86],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-442003","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-market-news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/442003","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/216"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=442003"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/442003\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=442003"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=442003"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=442003"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}