{"id":442054,"date":"2026-11-12T16:40:10","date_gmt":"2026-11-12T09:40:10","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/market-news\/gold-erases-post-midterms-gains-as-higher-real-yields-and-us-dollar-hurt-whats-next-442054\/"},"modified":"2026-11-12T16:40:10","modified_gmt":"2026-11-12T09:40:10","slug":"gold-erases-post-midterms-gains-as-higher-real-yields-and-us-dollar-hurt-whats-next","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/market-news\/gold-erases-post-midterms-gains-as-higher-real-yields-and-us-dollar-hurt-whats-next-442054\/","title":{"rendered":"Gold erases post-midterms gains as higher real yields and US dollar hurt. What’s next?"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

Gold extended the
\n selloff yesterday as the hawkish repricing continued to weigh on the precious
\n metal amid rising real yields and stronger US dollar. <\/p>\n

As a reminder, the
\n drop was triggered by the surprisingly hawkish remarks from Fed\u2019s Waller where not
\n only he said that he would vote for a rate hike in December regardless of the inflation
\n data but he also put on the table a 50 bps hike in case the data came in higher
\n than expected.<\/p>\n

The losses then
\n extended after the US CPI came indeed hotter than expected and raised the
\n probabilities for a 50 bps hike. Fed\u2019s Hammack spoke after the CPI data and she
\n also left a door open for a larger rate hike. At the moment, traders are
\n pricing in just a 12% chance of a 50 bps hike but the probabilities could rise
\n further in case more Fed members support such a move or don\u2019t push back against
\n this possibility. <\/p>\n

Meanwhile, the US-Iran
\n negotiations remain at a stalemate. The WSJ reported that US Vice President
\n Vance is considering face-to-face talks with a top Iranian security official in
\n an effort to end the war. <\/p>\n

In separate
\n reports, Iranian senior officials believe the US is planning either further
\n military strikes or an ever-tightening economic pressure to push Iran into
\n retaliatory actions. Overall, there\u2019s understandably lots of mistrust, but it
\n reinforces the view that a deal is not as near as the market expected. <\/p>\n

Looking ahead, I
\n would expect rate hikes to put even more downward pressure on the stock market
\n and long-term Treasury yields amid increased growth concerns, barring an end to
\n the Iran war. This could ultimately be positive for gold. <\/p>\n

Keep in mind that
\n in the current context, if Trump decides to escalate the war, inflation
\n expectations would rise alongside weakening growth outlook, creating a
\n stagflationary environment. This should be bullish for gold. At the same time,
\n if we get a de-escalation, we could see a dovish repricing on easing inflation
\n concerns, which should also support gold in the short-term. <\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

GOLD TECHNICAL
\n ANALYSIS \u2013 DAILY TIMEFRAME<\/p>\n<\/p>\n

On the daily chart, we can
\n see that gold<\/a>(CFD contract) fell back
\n below the broken trendline and it\u2019s now targeting the 3,885 support where we have
\n also the major upward trendline for confluence. We can expect the buyers to
\n step in around the support, with a defined risk below the upward trendline, to
\n position for a rally into the 4,700 level. The sellers, on the other hand, will
\n want to see the price breaking lower to increase the bearish bets into the 3,500
\n level next.<\/p>\n

GOLD
\n TECHNICAL ANALYSIS \u2013 4 HOUR TIMEFRAME<\/p>\n<\/p>\n

On the 4 hour chart, we can
\n see that the selloff extended further after the price broke below the minor 4,040
\n support and the upward trendline. We now have a downward trendline defining the
\n bearish momentum. If we get a pullback, we can expect the sellers to lean on
\n the trendline, with a defined risk above it, to keep targeting the 3,885
\n support. The buyers, on the other hand, will look for a break higher to pile in
\n for a rally into new highs. <\/p>\n

GOLD
\n TECHNICAL ANALYSIS \u2013 1 HOUR TIMEFRAME<\/p>\n<\/p>\n

On the 1 hour chart, there\u2019s
\n not much we can add here as the sellers will have a better risk to reward setup
\n around the downward trendline, while the buyers will need to wait for the price
\n to come into the 3,885 support or break above the downward trendline to start
\n positioning for new highs. The red lines define the average daily range<\/a> for today.<\/p>\n

UPCOMING CATALYSTS<\/p>\n

Today<\/a>we get the latest US Jobless Claims figures. Tomorrow,
\n we conclude the week with the US PPI data. <\/p>\n

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.<\/p><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Gold extended the selloff yesterday as the hawkish repricing continued to weigh on the precious metal amid rising real yields and stronger US dollar. As a reminder, the drop was triggered by…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":216,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[86],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-442054","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-market-news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/442054","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/216"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=442054"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/442054\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=442054"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=442054"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=442054"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}