{"id":442132,"date":"2026-11-13T02:40:07","date_gmt":"2026-11-12T19:40:07","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/market-news\/feds-daly-how-much-tightening-and-when-is-no-a-decision-for-right-now-442132\/"},"modified":"2026-11-13T02:40:07","modified_gmt":"2026-11-12T19:40:07","slug":"feds-daly-how-much-tightening-and-when-is-no-a-decision-for-right-now","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/market-news\/feds-daly-how-much-tightening-and-when-is-no-a-decision-for-right-now-442132\/","title":{"rendered":"Fed&#8217;s Daly: How much tightening and when is no a decision for right now"},"content":{"rendered":"<div>\n<ul dir=\"ltr\">\n<li>No doubt of AI-fueled price pressures<\/li>\n<li>AI contributing directly only a modest amount to inflation<\/li>\n<li>AI having limited impact on labor market<\/li>\n<li>We have an inflation problem, but AI is not doing most of the driving<\/li>\n<li>There has been repricing in AI valuations, but it\u2019s not the unwinding of interest or enthusiasm<\/li>\n<li>That suggests there\u2019s not a risk to growth<\/li>\n<li>There is positive momentum for productivity growth<\/li>\n<li>A lot of work being done that we might see more productivity growth in next 1-3 years<\/li>\n<li>Stable labor market, positive growth and productivity growth, and high inflation<\/li>\n<li>Have to focus on bringing inflation down<\/li>\n<li>Just because we have to fight inflation problem now doesn\u2019t mean we should ignore potential that productivity growth could be disinflationary<\/li>\n<li>Inflation shocks can compound, can\u2019t be complacent<\/li>\n<li>Bias is that further tightening will be needed<\/li>\n<li>Inflation is bleeding into services<\/li>\n<li>Once services inflation rises it\u2019s sticky<\/li>\n<li>Tighter financial conditions are most welcome<\/li>\n<li>But markets don\u2019t do the work of the Fed; keeping prices stable is the job of the Fed<\/li>\n<li>Financial markets are in alignment with where Fed needs to be<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p dir=\"ltr\">Daly is the surprise hawk here and that matters because she\u2019s historically been a reliable dove \u2014 when she says her \u201cbias is that further tightening will be needed,\u201d that\u2019s a committee tell, not an outlier. The services language is the sharpest part: inflation \u201cbleeding into services\u201d and \u201conce services inflation rises it\u2019s sticky\u201d is the exact framework the Fed used to justify the 2022-23 campaign, and reviving it signals she sees second-round effects, not just energy passthrough. The direct rebuttal of Bowman\u2019s financial-conditions argument \u2014 markets don\u2019t do the Fed\u2019s work \u2014 closes off the main dovish off-ramp. Her AI framing cuts hawkish too: productivity optimism means hiking poses \u201cnot a risk to growth,\u201d removing the other excuse to pause. Stack this with Logan and the center of gravity is clearly toward more than the 27.7 bps priced this year. Williams-Logan-Daly versus Bowman isn\u2019t a split; it\u2019s a consensus with one dissenter.<\/p>\n<p>                            This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.<\/p><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>No doubt of AI-fueled price pressures AI contributing directly only a modest amount to inflation AI having limited impact on labor market We have an inflation problem, but AI is not doing&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":216,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[86],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-442132","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-market-news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/442132","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/216"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=442132"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/442132\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=442132"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=442132"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=442132"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}