{"id":442142,"date":"2026-11-13T06:40:13","date_gmt":"2026-11-12T23:40:13","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/market-news\/goldman-sees-ai-spending-hitting-1-4-trillion-by-end-2027-nearly-4-of-the-us-economy-442142\/"},"modified":"2026-11-13T06:40:13","modified_gmt":"2026-11-12T23:40:13","slug":"goldman-sees-ai-spending-hitting-1-4-trillion-by-end-2027-nearly-4-of-the-us-economy","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/market-news\/goldman-sees-ai-spending-hitting-1-4-trillion-by-end-2027-nearly-4-of-the-us-economy-442142\/","title":{"rendered":"Goldman sees AI spending hitting $1.4 trillion by end-2027, nearly 4% of the US economy"},"content":{"rendered":"<div>\n<p dir=\"ltr\">Goldman\u2019s forecast supports the AI infrastructure trade, especially chipmakers, chip equipment makers and networking suppliers, which get the most from a spending path well above consensus. Its point that most AI hardware is imported matters for macro traders. Strong capex does not mean equally strong US GDP growth, and the gap shows up instead in a wider trade deficit and in demand for Asian supply chains. Downplaying the regulatory risk from the midterms may ease one worry that has weighed on data centre-linked stocks. Funding costs remain the main pressure point, as Fed hike expectations push borrowing costs higher.<\/p>\n<p dir=\"ltr\">&#8212;<\/p>\n<p dir=\"ltr\">Earlier:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/investinglive.com\/stocks\/cerebras-raises-2026-outlook-sees-revenue-tripling-in-2027-as-26bn-backlog-builds\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"follow\">Cerebras raises 2026 outlook, sees revenue tripling in 2027 as $26bn backlog builds<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/investinglive.com\/stocks\/applied-materials-beats-on-q4-and-guides-above-forecasts-as-chip-equipment-demand-holds\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"follow\">Applied Materials beats on Q4 and guides above forecasts as chip equipment demand holds<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/investinglive.com\/stocks\/cisco-beats-and-lifts-fy27-view-as-ai-revenue-from-hyperscalers-set-to-more-than-double\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"follow\">Cisco beats and lifts FY27 view as AI revenue from hyperscalers set to more than double<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p dir=\"ltr\">&#8212;<\/p>\n<p dir=\"ltr\">\nGoldman expects AI spending to reach a $1.4 trillion annual pace by the end of 2027 and keep driving US capex, but because much of the hardware is imported, the direct boost to US GDP is far smaller than the spending total.<\/p>\n<p dir=\"ltr\">Summary:<\/p>\n<ul dir=\"ltr\">\n<li>Annualised AI-related hardware and IP spending is seen at $1.4trn by the end of 2027, nearly 4% of the US economy<\/li>\n<li>Spending is expected to pass $900bn by the end of 2026<\/li>\n<li>US business investment is forecast to grow about 8% in 2027, nearly double the consensus of around 4%<\/li>\n<li>AI is expected to add more than 5 percentage points to 2027 capex growth, but only 0.6 point to GDP including semiconductors and 0.2 point without them<\/li>\n<li>Most information processing equipment is imported and so netted out of GDP<\/li>\n<li>Democrats\u2019 midterm wins are seen posing only limited risks to AI investment; rising borrowing costs are the bigger risk<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p dir=\"ltr\">\nArtificial intelligence will remain the main driver of US business investment growth in 2027, according to Goldman Sachs. The bank expects annualised spending on AI-related hardware and intellectual property to reach $1.4 trillion by the end of next year, equivalent to nearly 4% of the US economy. That compares with its forecast of more than $900 billion by the end of 2026, Reuters reported on Wednesday.<\/p>\n<p dir=\"ltr\">The outlook is well above the market consensus. Goldman expects US business investment to grow about 8% in 2027, close to double the consensus forecast of around 4%. It estimates that AI-related investment alone will add more than 5 percentage points to capex growth next year once semiconductors are included.<\/p>\n<p dir=\"ltr\">The more striking detail is how little of that spending shows up in US output. Goldman estimates AI investment will add 0.6 percentage point to US GDP growth in 2027 including semiconductors, and only 0.2 point without them. The reason is trade: most information processing equipment is imported, so it is netted out of GDP. The bank also argued that official business investment data undercount semiconductor investment. In other words, the AI boom is huge for capex and for the companies supplying it, but its direct boost to the US economy is much smaller than the spending total suggests.<\/p>\n<p dir=\"ltr\">On politics, Goldman played down the risk from Democrats\u2019 victories in this month\u2019s midterm elections, which had raised concerns about tighter regulation of data centre development. The bank said the outcome poses only limited risks to AI investment.<\/p>\n<p dir=\"ltr\">The forecast comes in a week when corporate results have backed the spending story. Cisco raised its full-year outlook on strong AI networking demand from hyperscalers, Applied Materials guided above forecasts on chip equipment orders, and Cerebras reported a backlog of around $26 billion.<\/p>\n<p dir=\"ltr\">The main risk is funding. Rising borrowing costs and tighter investor scrutiny could slow AI capital spending, particularly as companies rely more on debt to pay for the build-out. With markets pricing a strong chance of another Fed hike in December, the cost of that debt is worth watching.<\/p>\n<p dir=\"ltr\">\n<p>                            This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.<\/p><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Goldman\u2019s forecast supports the AI infrastructure trade, especially chipmakers, chip equipment makers and networking suppliers, which get the most from a spending path well above consensus. Its point that most AI hardware&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":216,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[86],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-442142","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-market-news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/442142","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/216"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=442142"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/442142\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=442142"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=442142"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=442142"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}