{"id":442148,"date":"2026-11-13T08:40:06","date_gmt":"2026-11-13T01:40:06","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/market-news\/barclays-sees-oil-risks-skewed-higher-with-middle-east-flows-still-15-below-pre-war-442148\/"},"modified":"2026-11-13T08:40:06","modified_gmt":"2026-11-13T01:40:06","slug":"barclays-sees-oil-risks-skewed-higher-with-middle-east-flows-still-15-below-pre-war","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/market-news\/barclays-sees-oil-risks-skewed-higher-with-middle-east-flows-still-15-below-pre-war-442148\/","title":{"rendered":"Barclays sees oil risks skewed higher with Middle East flows still 15% below pre-war"},"content":{"rendered":"<div>\n<p dir=\"ltr\">Barclays\u2019 view goes against the recent selling in crude. It suggests the roughly 7% fall in Brent and WTI over the past week has gone further than the data support while flows and inventories stay tight. Light speculative positioning means a renewed Hormuz incident or a stalled diplomatic track could set off a sharp short-covering rally. The long Brent calendar spread recommendation reflects a bet that tight prompt supply will keep the curve in backwardation, with near-dated prices above later ones. Higher oil would also keep inflation and central bank hike expectations elevated, adding to pressure on rate-sensitive assets.<\/p>\n<p dir=\"ltr\">&#8212;<\/p>\n<p dir=\"ltr\">\nBarclays argues that oil doesn\u2019t need a new shock to rise: with Hormuz flows still short, stocks depressed and traders under-positioned, simply continuing the stalemate is enough to tilt the risks higher.<\/p>\n<p dir=\"ltr\">Summary:<\/p>\n<ul dir=\"ltr\">\n<li>Barclays sees near-term oil price risks skewed to the upside, with a US-Iran diplomatic breakthrough still out of reach<\/li>\n<li>Front-month Brent and WTI have each fallen about 7% since the bank\u2019s previous update a week earlier<\/li>\n<li>Direct Hormuz exports averaged about 9 mb\/d in the week to 31 October, or nearly 18 mb\/d including bypass routes, about 23% below pre-war<\/li>\n<li>On a 30-day average, Middle East flows are around 85% of pre-war levels<\/li>\n<li>Inventories outside China remain well below normal, and most strategic reserve releases are over<\/li>\n<li>Demand from China and India is recovering and speculative positioning is light; Barclays keeps its forecasts and its long Brent calendar spread call<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p dir=\"ltr\">\nBarclays says oil markets are too relaxed about the risks ahead and sees prices skewed higher in the near term, even after a fresh slide in crude. In its latest Energy Sigma note, titled \u201cStatus quo\u201d, the bank argues that a diplomatic breakthrough in US-Iran tensions remains out of reach, while traders are not positioned for the current stalemate to continue.<\/p>\n<p dir=\"ltr\">The call comes despite weak prices. Barclays noted that front-month Brent and WTI futures have each fallen about 7% since its previous update a week earlier, but said the data released since then all point the same way. In its view, diplomacy is continuing but an imminent deal looks unlikely.<\/p>\n<p dir=\"ltr\">The first pressure point is the Strait of Hormuz. A recent rise in attacks on shipping has slowed the recovery in Middle East flows. The bank said direct net exports through the Strait averaged about 9 million barrels per day in the week to 31 October. Ship-to-ship transfers and pipelines that bypass the Strait lifted the total to nearly 18 million barrels per day, still about 23% below pre-war levels. Flows briefly exceeded pre-war volumes in mid-October despite the blockade of Iran, but that did not last. On a 30-day average, Middle East flows were close to 19.5 million barrels per day at the end of October, around 85% of pre-war levels.<\/p>\n<p dir=\"ltr\">Barclays\u2019 bigger concern is stockpiles. Inventories have stabilised but are not rebuilding. Global inventories outside China remain well below their usual range, and most strategic reserve releases are now over. The bank argues that this means even a continuation of the current situation carries upside risk, with a higher chance of a sharp price spike than before.<\/p>\n<p dir=\"ltr\">Two other indicators support that view. Demand from the most price-sensitive buyers is recovering, with combined China and India seaborne imports climbing back toward year-earlier levels after a deep slump. And speculative positioning in Brent and WTI remains light, which leaves room for buyers to return.<\/p>\n<p dir=\"ltr\">Barclays also addressed the recent widening in the price gap between WTI and Canadian heavy crude. It said the gap reflects shipping costs, refinery and upgrader outages and strategic reserve releases, not a surge in supply. The bank kept its price forecasts unchanged and repeated its recommendation for long calendar spreads in Brent, a bet that near-dated contracts will gain against later ones as supplies stay tight.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p dir=\"ltr\">\n<p>                            This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.<\/p><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Barclays\u2019 view goes against the recent selling in crude. It suggests the roughly 7% fall in Brent and WTI over the past week has gone further than the data support while flows&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":216,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[86],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-442148","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-market-news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/442148","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/216"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=442148"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/442148\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=442148"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=442148"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=442148"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}