{"id":442228,"date":"2026-11-16T00:40:06","date_gmt":"2026-11-15T17:40:06","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/market-news\/nvida-stock-analysis-before-its-earnings-442228\/"},"modified":"2026-11-16T00:40:06","modified_gmt":"2026-11-15T17:40:06","slug":"nvida-stock-analysis-before-its-earnings","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/market-news\/nvida-stock-analysis-before-its-earnings-442228\/","title":{"rendered":"Nvida stock analysis before its earnings"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Nvidia stock lost 12.75% while Nasdaq futures gained 3%. Now comes the $167-$174 test<\/p>\n

Nvidia’s sharp rebound from $148.80 was followed by another selloff. With earnings approaching and a new interim CEO in place, the next price tests could reveal whether buyers are regaining confidence or merely interrupting a larger decline.<\/p>\n

Nvidia shares (NVDA) fell 12.75% in the week ended November 13, while E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures (NQ) gained 3.02%. That is an important divergence for a stock widely regarded as a barometer of the artificial intelligence trade.<\/p>\n

The message is not that Nvidia must recover or that technology stocks are immune to further selling. It is that Nvidia’s weakness has been considerably greater than that of its benchmark, and traders should watch whether that gap starts closing or becomes even more pronounced.<\/p>\n

For Nvidia bulls, the first meaningful recovery test is approximately $167-$174. For bears, the ability of buyers to defend $158-$162 may be equally important.<\/p>\n

Nvidia’s rebound looked impressive. Friday exposed its weakness.<\/p>\n

The sequence of Nvidia’s recent trading is more informative than the weekly percentage decline alone.<\/p>\n

On Monday, November 9, the stock opened near $173 following the previous Friday’s $186.64 close. It subsequently recovered toward $179, but still finished the session lower.<\/p>\n

Tuesday brought renewed selling. Wednesday offered another recovery attempt, taking Nvidia to $177.54 before the stock settled at $173.73.<\/p>\n

Then came Thursday’s extraordinary session.<\/p>\n

Nvidia opened near $151 on November 12 and traded across a wide $148.80-$167.14 range. By the end of the first four-hour trading period, shares had recovered to approximately $166, eventually closing at $166.19.<\/p>\n

Daily trading volume reached approximately 747.7 million shares, more than four times the preceding 20-session average.<\/p>\n

That recovery matters. It shows that substantially lower prices did not simply lead to uninterrupted selling. Buyers were able to push the stock much higher during the session, although the available price observations cannot establish who initiated the move or the exact sequence of every intraday high and low.<\/p>\n

But Friday changed the interpretation.<\/p>\n

Nvidia opened near $170, briefly reached that price and subsequently traded down to $158.39 before closing at $162.85.<\/p>\n

Consider what that means for expectations.<\/p>\n

Someone encouraged by Thursday’s recovery might reasonably have wanted to see Nvidia establish itself above $170 and challenge Wednesday’s highs. Instead, the recovery failed to gain traction.<\/p>\n

That is a disappointment for the bullish interpretation, even though it does not establish that sellers have regained complete control.<\/p>\n

Importantly, Friday did not break Thursday’s $148.80 extreme.<\/p>\n

The market has demonstrated both the ability to rebound sharply and the inability, so far, to sustain that rebound.<\/p>\n

Why $167-$174 is Nvidia’s first meaningful recovery test<\/p>\n

A useful way to evaluate the next move is to examine where trading activity was concentrated during the completed November 9-13 week.<\/p>\n

An estimated point of control, or POC, identifies a price region associated with particularly heavy trading activity. It is a reference area, not a magic support or resistance line.<\/p>\n

For Nvidia, the estimates place that region at approximately $167-$172. Actual recent price behavior, including Friday’s failure around $170 and Wednesday’s $173.73 close, supports watching the slightly wider $167-$174 corridor.<\/p>\n

Here is what would make the next recovery more convincing:<\/p>\n