Market News

USD/JPY fell to 157.00 from 157.75 after fresh undervaluation talk from a variety of officials.

This is the second round of jawboning today. Earlier, Katayama took the unusual step of disclosing that Trump raised the weak yen with Takaichi at their UN meeting this week, and that Takaichi told him, "as a general principle," that an undervalued yen is a problem. That got about 30 pips. Now Katayama says she and Bessent "reaffirmed the point that the undervaluation of the yen is a problem" and that she expects the "excessive" yen selling to be corrected. She even suggested the market "misunderstood" something.

The language isn't new. "Substantial undervaluation" has been Treasury's phrase since the July 31 joint intervention, when USD/JPY was…

The AUDUSD has fallen sharply this week as buying of the US dollar took center stage. Fed officials struck a tougher tone on policy, Treasury yields moved higher, and the market-implied probability of an October rate hike rose to around 66% at the time of this update. Higher US yields can make the dollar more attractive relative to other currencies, adding pressure to pairs such as AUDUSD.

The technical picture turned more bearish on Wednesday when the pair broke below its 100-day moving average with momentum. That put the 200-day moving average, currently near 0.70217, in the sellers’ sights.

The price reached that level early in the Asia-Pacific session yesterday and briefly broke below it. Buyers responded, pushing the pair back up, but…

Speaking on CNBC, Greer said the US will release on Monday the details of negotiations between China and the US.

I wouldn't expect to be overwhelmed but at least it's all on the rails.

Meanwhile Trump is tweeting. It seems we're at the stage of his Presidency, where he's all about re-naming things.

Very productive meeting with President Xi for both the U.S.A. and China. Tremendous things will be happening. Like almost everyone else, he seemed to like calling the poorly and inaccurately named Artificial Intelligence to a far more accurate and important name, SUPER INTELLIGENCE. That would be “SUPER!” Everyone last night agreed, also. President DJT

I think people will continue to call it whatever they want.

This…

Nearly $18 billion worth of Bitcoin and Ethereum options are expiring today, making this one of the largest quarterly settlements of the year. While an options expiry does not automatically mean that Bitcoin or Ethereum will rise or fall, large settlements can temporarily change the market's liquidity and hedging dynamics. Understanding how options work helps explain why crypto markets can experience unusual price action and volatility around major expiry dates.

What are options?

Options are derivatives that give traders the right, but not the obligation, to buy or sell an asset at a predetermined price before or at expiration. A call option gives the buyer the right to buy the underlying asset at a specific strike price, while a put option…

• Prior was +1.1%
• Ex-transport +0.3% vs +0.6% expected
• Prior ex-transport +0.4%
• Ex-defense +0.1% vs +1.3% prior
• Non-defense capital goods orders ex-air +1.6% vs +0.5% expected
• Prior +0.2%

The big data point this week was the S&P Global PMI that showed an accelerating US economy. The headline here is flat but the core orders matter much more of the underlying direction of the economy and that's a great number that helps to back up the bullish view on the economy. The market reaction has been nil but this is another brick in the hawkish pyramid.

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

The yen is the standout currency this morning. The U.S. dollar is down 0.77% against the JPY, with USDJPY trading near 157.61. Japan’s Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama said President Trump raised concerns about yen weakness during his meeting with Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi. Katayama said Takaichi replied that an undervalued yen was problematic as a general principle.

USDJPY has also fallen back below its 200-hour moving average and 50% retracement near 158.45, followed by the swing area around 158.00. Sellers have more control while the price stays below those levels. Buyers need to reclaim 158.00 first, then 158.45, to start repairing the short-term technical picture.

The dollar is mixed but mostly lower. It is down against the EUR,…

Headlines:

• USD/JPY falls below 158.00 as Takaichi says Trump flagged weak yen pressure
• Crude oil falls on reports of potential phased US-Iran deal that would reopen the Strait of Hormuz
• Trump-Xi summit extends the trade truce but leaves the biggest market questions unresolved
• How have interest rate expectations changed after this week's events?
• Fed's Williams: Persistent supply shocks are making the inflation fight harder
• German consumer climate darkens ahead of October as higher energy costs bite
• Ethereum struggles amid macro headwinds, but renewed US-Iran hopes limit the downside
• Month-end FX flows point to yen and pound selling, euro buying – BofA

Markets:

• WTI crude oil down 2.4% to $92.36
• JPY leads, CHF lags on the day
• 10-year Treasury yields up…

IC – Europe Fundamental Forecast | 25 September 2026

What happened in the Asia session?

The Asian trading session is being influenced by expectations surrounding U.S.–China trade relations, monetary policy divergence, and ongoing geopolitical risks affecting energy markets.

Recent market developments include continued pressure on the Japanese yen following the Bank of Japan’s interest-rate increase to 1.25%, while concerns about potential currency intervention from by Japanese authorities remain relevant for USD/JPY traders. The Chinese yuan has also attracted attention after the People’s Bank of China adopted a less restrictive approach toward yuan appreciation ahead of the U.S.–China summit.

What does it mean for the European & US…