Market News

US stock markets started strong and we saw 10% bounces in beaten-up memory stocks. It didn't last but it also didn't break down. 

Some notable names:

• MU +5.1%
• SNDK +3.5%
• INTC +7.7%
• SKHY +2.8%
• NVDA +2.8%
• QCOM +5.8%

The hyperscalers were near flat and the indexes were higher but didn't finish at the highs. I wouldn't give the win today to the bulls or the bears. It was a nice day but came after a brutal rout. Non-farm payrolls may have limited the enthusiasm because it puts a rate hiking cycle back on the table.

Weighing at one point was a report on a strategy shift from MSFT where they will curb third-party data centers, with Oracle cited. That briefly sent ORCL 3% lower and weighed on the Nasdaq. Overall, it was a tough week for stocks but the…

• US October non-farm payrolls +165K vs +65K expected
• Canada Employment change for October -4.7K vs 13.6K estimate. Unemployment rate 6.7%.
• Iran responds positively to latest mediator proposal - report
• November US UMich prelim consumer sentiment 51.0 vs 48.0 expected
• Iran reviewing proposals to curb nuclear program - report
• BOJ's Ueda: Consumer prices now around 3% and expected to rise further into early next year
• Microsoft is reportedly winding down it's Oracle deal to wind down AI cloud capacity
• Fed's Daly: Jobs report is good news
• Trump chief of staff Susie Wiles to be replaced by Stephen Miller
• Trump: We are talking to Iran, we are doing very well with Iran

Markets:

• Gold down $22 to $4065
• US 10-year yields down 2.4 bps to 4.86%
• WTI crude oil flat at…

• We are talking to Iran
• We are doing well with Iran
• I want Stephen Miller to run things well as chief of staff
• Stephen gets it, he'll do a great job
• I wanted to make a change

It's not clear if Wiles quit or Trump 'wanted to make a change'. There isn't much of a signal on Iran but there hae been some late-day bids in crude, almost certainly on fears of weekend escalation.

Meanwhile, SNN reports that Iran's military doctrine is moving towards aggression, under the orders of the Commander in Chief. There is a separate report that the recent Russia-Iran contacts came after a US request.

White House chief of staff Susie Wiles will be leaving her post, President Trump reported. She will move over to the Trump political operation, he said. 

Her replacement is Stephen Miller, who Trump said is "one of my most trusted advisors". Miller was the deputy chief of staff.

Bloomberg reports that Wiles resigned on Thursday night, so this impetus could have come from her, rather than Trump.

In any case, Miller is an extreme hawk on immigration and that's what he is best known for. He becamse less prominent after the immigration roundups in Minnesota. Perhaps more importantly, Miller has been one of the most forceful public defenders of Trump's 2026 war against Iran.

This could be an early signal that Trump has no plans to make peace or to…

The Fed’s Daly spoke on CNBC about the jobs report, wages and inflation.

• Job report good news

• Wage growth isn’t booming

• Real wages are falling

• Feel hopeful when think about American workforce

• On inflation, would like confidence to be higher

• High inflation for too long

• inflation has to be number 1 priority.

• Strong labor market gives Fed latitude to get job done on inflation. Rate hike was right move, also good to be on hold at last meeting.

• Uncertainty and tariffs, war, AI, but inflation is more stubborn than would like.

• Will have to tighten policy further.

• Prepared to raise rates if it is called for

• Thinks the Fed needs to be deliberate

• How much more tightening and when need more information

• The AI trade has to be orderly.

• Quite a bit commitment to…

As London and European traders head home for the weekend, the major European stock indices are closing lower across the board. The German DAX led the way with a 1.92% decline, wiping out its gain for the week. Spain’s IBEX fell 0.60% on the day but still posted the strongest weekly gain among the major European indices. The UK FTSE 100 was the only one of the five to finish the week lower.

European stocks at the close

• German DAX closed at 25,820.37, down 1.92% on the day and unchanged for the week.

• France’s CAC 40 closed at 8,139.01, down 0.81% on the day and up 2.13% for the week.

• UK FTSE 100 closed at 10,673.93, down 1.01% on the day and -0.52% for the week.

• Spain’s IBEX 35 closed at 19,369.49, down 0.60% on the day and up 3.84% for the…

The US is pressing China to immediately fulfill the commitments Presidents Donald Trump and Xi Jinping made in Busan, South Korea, in October 2025. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said he and US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer raised concerns with Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng and stressed that further progress depends on concrete results.

Rare earths are the sticking point. US officials told the Financial Times that China has fulfilled only about two-thirds of its commitments and has failed to increase supply as Washington expected. Beijing disputes the US assessment. One material in focus is yttrium, used in jet engines and missiles. The FT reports that Chinese export restrictions are affecting Japanese suppliers that serve US…

US stocks are giving back some of their gains as a report circulates that Microsoft is winding down an arrangement with Oracle for AI cloud capacity. Details on the scope and timing of any wind-down remain unconfirmed.

Oracle shares are trading at $111.35 after reaching a session high of $119.70. The stock fell as low as $109.21 in the current hourly bar, its lowest level since February 2024. That puts the shares $8.35, or about 7%, below the day’s high.

The headline comes a day after the Nasdaq 100 fell 6.36% as investors sold chipmakers and other stocks tied to the AI buildout. The question for investors is whether Microsoft is shifting where it gets its computing power or scaling back how much capacity it plans to add.

The major indices…

Iranian negotiators are reviewing proposals that would see Tehran curb its nuclear program, according to the Times of Israel.

Iran had previously refused to put the issue on the table until its seven conditions were met. Now there appears to be a thawing on that stance, if the reporting is correct. It cites a US official and a diplomat familiar.

"The proposals stop short of complete dismantlement, but do address Iran’s stockpile of highly enriched uranium, the diplomat familiar with the talks adds, saying that the offers would see Iran receive significant sanctions relief from the US."

WTI crude is down 18-cents today to $90.33 but has fallen dramatically this week on hopes for a peace deal after the Iran war proved wildly unpopular at the…

Bitcoin moved higher with stocks in the risk-on trade that followed the election results. Yesterday, that trade went into reverse. As AI concerns sent stocks tumbling, Bitcoin gave up its post-election gains, fell back below its 100-day moving average and returned to a swing area that has repeatedly come into play since August.

In the video above, I walk through the chart and outline what needs to happen to give buyers some relief. Where can buyers lean with close risk? What levels would they need to get above to take back some control? And where does the price have room to roam if the floor gives way?

The swing area is the immediate barometer.

Bitcoin was trading near $75,632 at the time of the chart, inside the swing area between $74,925…

He is having a conversation with IMF managing direction Kristalina Georgieva:

• Underlying inflation will likely stay around 2% but we recognize some upside risks
• We do look at actions of other central banks very carefully as they do affect asset prices, interest rates and exchange rates
• We are discussing communication by the central bank but don't have a formal commitment yet

The market is split almost 50/50 on what the Bank of Japan will do on December 18 but it's a bit early for signalling from Ueda.

The global forex and CFD broker enters an exclusive partnership with the German Bundesliga club, marking a new milestone in its international brand expansion strategy.

Xlence, the global forex and CFD broker, has officially signed a sponsorship agreement with German football club 1. FSV Mainz 05, becoming the club’s Official Internationalization Partner. 

Through this partnership, Xlence advances its international growth strategy by building closer ties with European professional football and creating opportunities to expand brand awareness and engagement across Asian markets.

The partnership brings together Xlence and 1. FSV Mainz 05, combining their…