The broader market mood remains more cautious so far on the day. European indices are lightly changed while S&P 500 futures are down 0.1% with traders and investors still digesting the latest developments from the Middle East.

US-Iran talks continue to stall but there is some hope with reports emerging earlier today that Iran might offer up a concession in “reopening” the Strait of Hormuz before sitting down for nuclear talks. However, that seems to be likely contingent on the US also lifting its naval blockade in the meantime.

There was a rehash of the headlines just a little over an hour ago here. And that coincides a little with a slight push lower in the dollar, even as broader risk sentiment is keeping more reserved. EUR/USD is now up 0.2% on the day to 1.1745, sticking with the bounce off the 200-day moving average (blue line) from last week:

The chart reaffirms that buyers are still trying to force their agenda, defending the key support level above. That comes after a gap to the downside at the open today, in which the pair started off at 1.1690. So, it’s a decent push higher on the session so far.

That being said, we are seeing price action now run into some near-term resistance from the 200-hour moving average at 1.1750. So, buyers are not fully in near-term control just yet.

Elsewhere, we are seeing more of the same kind of price movements. AUD/USD also opened with a gap lower at 0.7125 but is now trading up by 0.5% on the day 0.7185. There is some key resistance around the region of 0.7187-00 but a firm break there opens up the path to its highest levels since June 2022 next.

Meanwhile, USD/CAD is also dropping by 0.4% to 1.3610 – its lowest level in seven weeks. That comes as oil prices continue to stay underpinned with Brent crude (July contract) up 2.6% to $101.70 while WTI crude is up 2.3% to $96.55 on the day.

Even precious metals are also looking cautious, with gold down 0.1% to $4,703 and silver down 0.1% to $75.66 currently.

As such, it is only the dollar that is acting a little out of sync here considering the movement in other asset classes. That as the market mood remains more cautious but at least not seen that bad considering that US-Iran talks are still not progressing.

As a reminder, we’re now nine weeks into the war in the Middle East and the Strait of Hormuz is still in de facto closure.

This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

IC Markets Global – Europe Fundamental Forecast | 27 April 2026

What happened in the Asia session?

A tug-of-war between constructive domestic macroeconomic data in China and the persistent shadow of global geopolitical risk. Market participants assessed the March industrial profit figures as a critical indicator of manufacturing resilience, which provided some buoyancy to Chinese assets despite the drag created by the ongoing energy shock and unresolved conflicts in the Middle East.

What does it mean for the Europe & US sessions?

Escalating U.S.-Iran tensions are driving oil prices above $107 per barrel for Brent crude, alongside stalled peace talks impacting global energy costs and equity sentiment as European and U.S. sessions open. Key macroeconomic focuses include China’s industrial profits rising 15.8% in March despite oil disruptions, U.S. stock futures declining amid AI stock flows and broader market divergence, and persistent inflation pressures with year-ahead expectations at 4.7%.
​
The Dollar Index (DXY)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from DXY today?

The US Dollar opened higher, buoyed by fading optimism over US-Iran talks that raised Middle East tensions, reinforcing its safe-haven appeal amid ongoing inflation pressures and Fed hawkishness; analysts see consolidation in the Dollar Index but upside risks from energy shocks if ceasefires falter, with key pairs like USD/JPY and EUR/USD underscoring its dominance versus softer global currencies.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is widely expected to hold the federal funds rate target range steady at 3.50%–3.75% at its March 17–18, 2026, meeting, amid rising oil prices from the US-Israel war against Iran and persistent inflation pressures, delaying any 2026 cuts potentially to September.
• The Committee continues to pursue maximum employment and 2% inflation goals, with the labor market weakening further as nonfarm payrolls declined by 92,000 in February 2026 and the unemployment rate rose to 4.4% from 4.3% in January.
• Officials face tilted risks from geopolitical tensions, elevated oil prices, and sticky inflation, with CPI steady at 2.4% year-over-year in February 2026, headline PCE at 2.8% in January, and core PCE rising to 3.1%.
• Economic activity has cooled after robust Q4 2025 growth of nearly 5%, with the Atlanta Fed GDPNow now estimating Q1 2026 growth at around 2.1%–2.7% amid softer consumer spending and labour data.
• December 2025’s Summary of Economic Projections forecasts 2025 unemployment at a median of 4.5%, 2026 GDP growth at 2.3%, and core PCE at 2.5%, with the dot plot signalling one more cut in 2026 to a median 3.4% funds rate; March updates may reflect softer labor and inflation upticks.
• The Committee maintains its data-dependent stance amid a softening labor market, inflation above target, and new oil shocks, likely holding rates at 3.50%-3.75% with ongoing divisions and possible hawkish dissents on rate cuts.
• The FOMC continues its adjusted quantitative tightening, with Treasury rolloff caps at $5 billion per month and agency MBS at $35 billion per month to ensure ample reserves post-2025 program adjustments.
• The next meeting is scheduled for 28 to 29  April 2026.

Next 24 Hours Bias
Medium Bullish

Gold (XAU)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from Gold today?

As of Monday, the price of gold is trading at approximately $4,695.38 per troy ounce, reflecting a daily decline of 0.29%. Despite this recent softening, the precious metal has maintained a strong performance over the longer term, posting a 3.99% gain over the past month and an increase of over 40% compared to the same period last year.

Next 24 Hours Bias   
Medium Bullish

The Euro (EUR)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from EUR today?

The euro is trading cautiously versus major peers, notably the US dollar, as markets digest renewed stagflation worries in the Eurozone and geopolitical headwinds linked to the Iran‑related conflict. Despite some technical bounces, EUR/USD remains near recent lows, underpinned by a relatively hawkish‑leaning ECB that is reluctant to cut rates aggressively amid uneven growth and still‑elevated uncertainty, keeping the euro on a defensive footing heading into the week’s key data releases.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Governing Council of the ECB is expected to keep the three key interest rates unchanged at its 29–30 April 2026 meeting, with the main refinancing rate at 2.15%, marginal lending facility at 2.40%, and deposit facility at 2.00%. This reflects an ongoing commitment to 2% inflation stability amid heightened uncertainties from Middle East tensions and US trade policies under President Trump. Market probabilities indicate around 58% odds of no change, though some banks now price in potential hikes due to rising inflation risks.
• Price dynamics show increasing upside pressures, with headline HICP inflation likely around 2.0-2.2% in early 2026, driven by energy costs from Middle East conflicts offsetting euro strength. Core inflation remains sticky but moderating slowly, with projections revised upward to 2.6% for 2026 overall amid hawkish signals from ECB leadership.
• Updated Eurosystem staff projections for April 2026 may forecast headline inflation at 2.1-2.2% in 2026, 1.9% in 2027, and 2.0% in 2028, with upside risks from energy and trade dominating balanced prior views. A stronger euro provides some counterbalance, but recent data revisions highlight persistent pressures.
• Euro area GDP growth holds steady, with Q2 2026 surveys suggesting 0.2-0.3% qoq growth, in line with 1.1-1.3% annual forecasts through 2027. Defence spending, infrastructure, and low unemployment support resilience against trade headwinds and softer external demand.
• The labour market remains tight, with unemployment steady near 6.4%, bolstered by wage growth and participation gains. Supportive credit conditions continue aiding investment and consumption despite global risks.
• Business sentiment is cautious amid US tariffs, geopolitical flare-ups, and supply chain easing; a somewhat weaker euro boosts exports, while fiscal measures aid domestic activity.
• The Governing Council maintains its data-dependent, meeting-by-meeting stance, scrutinizing inflation, transmission, and external shocks without pre-committing to rate paths.
• Balance sheet normalization advances smoothly, with APP/PEPP wind-downs complete and no liquidity issues; banks show ample reserves and stable funding access.

​The next meeting is on 29 April 2026

Next 24 Hours Bias
Weak Bearish

The Swiss Franc (CHF)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from CHF today?

As of Monday, the Swiss Franc (CHF) is navigating a landscape defined by safe-haven demand, shifting monetary policy expectations, and significant economic data releases. Investors remain particularly focused on liquidity trends and the Swiss National Bank’s (SNB) stance toward currency valuation amidst ongoing regional instability.

Central Bank Notes:

• At its monetary policy assessment on 19 March 2026, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) is widely expected to leave the policy rate unchanged at 0%, continuing the extended pause since September 2025, as the Governing Board considers current settings adequate to keep inflation near the target without resorting to negative rates.
• Inflation data since December indicate persistent weakness, with headline CPI hovering around 0% year-on-year through early 2026 and core measures subdued at roughly 0.4%, underscoring limited price pressures and lingering, though contained, deflation risks.
• The SNB’s updated conditional inflation forecast shows minimal change from December, with averages of about 0.2% in 2025 (now complete), 0.3% in 2026, and 0.6% in 2027 under a steady 0% policy rate. However, recent flat CPI readings may slightly lower near-term expectations, preserving scope for further easing if needed.
• Global conditions remain challenging, marked by U.S. tariff escalations under President Trump, subdued external demand, and uncertainties in major export markets such as Europe and the U.S., prompting the SNB to exercise caution despite resilient Swiss domestic activity.
• Sentiment in manufacturing and export sectors stays soft amid franc appreciation and weaker foreign orders, squeezing margins. Yet, overall GDP growth is expected to be around 1.5% in 2026, with unemployment edging up modestly from historic lows.
• The SNB reaffirms its readiness to intervene via rate cuts or FX operations should deflationary pressures intensify, while emphasizing clear communication through detailed meeting minutes and coordination with global partners on currency matters.

The next meeting is on 18 June 2026.

Next 24 Hours Bias
Medium Bearish

The Pound (GBP)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from GBP today?

The British pound remains volatile today, Monday, as traders brace for a week of significant economic data and central bank developments in both the UK and the US. The currency is currently navigating a technical environment that suggests potential bearish pressure, with analysts observing a range-bound trade likely between 1.3454 and 1.3608.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) met on 19 March 2026, maintaining the Bank Rate at 3.75 per cent in a unanimous decision, following the prior narrow 5–4 vote to hold at the 5 February 2026 meeting. This pause reflects a sharp reversal from earlier market expectations of a 25-basis-point cut, driven by a Middle East conflict sparking global energy and commodity price surges. The March meeting did not include a Monetary Policy Report, with the next one due in April.
• Quantitative tightening (QT) proceeds unchanged at the 2025 pace of gilt holdings reductions, maintaining gradual balance-sheet normalization attuned to liquidity conditions and supportive of a restrictive stance amid new shocks.
• Headline CPI inflation faces near-term upside from the energy shock, reversing prior disinflation trends in domestic prices and wages; pre-shock services inflation had eased but now contends with higher utility and input costs, keeping pressures above the 2 per cent target. MPC projections will update in April, but analysts see inflation at 3-4 per cent by the end of 2026.
• UK growth softens further into Q2 2026, with unemployment risks rising amid potential confidence drops, higher precautionary saving, and widening output gaps; regular pay growth had cooled pre-shock but now faces business cost pass-through.
• Global headwinds intensify via Middle East conflict, driving volatile energy/commodity prices and sterling/gilt swings; MPC deems direct shocks manageable if demand weakens sufficiently to limit second-round effects.
• Inflation risks now tilt upwards from energy persistence and potential wage/cost embedding, offset by downside from demand slack and job losses; prior balance has shifted amid uncertainty on shock duration.
• The MPC adopts a wait-and-see posture post-shock, with policy deemed somewhat restrictive pre-event; all members are ready to act data-dependently for 2 per cent sustainability, eyeing April for fuller impact analysis and possible easing if disinflation resumes. Governor Bailey’s guidance stresses close monitoring without firm-cut commitments.
• The next meeting is on 30 April 2026.

  Next 24 Hours Bias
  Weak Bearish

The Canadian Dollar (CAD)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from CAD today?

The Canadian dollar (CAD) showed mild strength today, Monday, trading around 1.3662 USD/CAD by close, down slightly from Friday’s 1.3670 amid ongoing US dollar fluctuations and global risk sentiment. Recent weeks have seen the loonie bolstered by oil price stability and a weaker USD influenced by Middle East tensions and Fed policy expectations, though it faces headwinds from the Bank of Canada’s caution on rates.
​
Central Bank Notes:

• The Governing Council held the overnight rate target steady at 2.25% at its 25 March 2026 meeting, aligning with consensus forecasts and extending the pause in policy adjustments amid balanced risks. The Bank emphasized persistent global uncertainties from Middle East conflicts and U.S. trade policies under President Trump, but affirmed the current stance supports ongoing disinflation without immediate shifts despite elevated energy price volatility.
• U.S. tariff threats and regional geopolitical tensions continue weighing on business sentiment, though Canadian manufacturing PMI has edged higher into expansion territory, with export orders firming on energy demand. Goods exports, led by crude oil, sustained momentum into February, offsetting cautious capex as firms prioritize resilience over aggressive growth.
• Economic growth carried into Q1 2026 at an annualized pace of around 2.2%, building on Q4 2025’s solid performance, fueled by resource exports, government outlays, and manufacturing rebound. February preliminary data points to steady expansion, though winter weather and supply chain frictions modestly curbed potential upside.
• Services sector PMI climbed further above 50, with broad gains in tech, hospitality, and business services; consumer-facing areas showed tentative improvement as real wages rose, though high service costs still restrained discretionary outlays. The Bank sees this diffusion as evidence of rebalancing toward sustainable activity.
• ​National housing resales ticked up in January-February alongside modest price gains, buoyed by stable rates and improved affordability in select regions, while inventory buildup in urban centers prevents excessive tightening. Officials anticipate continued moderation, aided by prudent mortgage rules amid steady household formation.
• Headline CPI eased to about 2.1% year-over-year in February 2026 estimates, staying within the control band, as core gauges like CPI-trim and median dipped to near 2.7% on softer food and durable goods pressures—despite sticky shelter costs. This reinforces the Bank’s view of inflation sustainably approaching the target.
• Policymakers reiterated that 2.25% remains well-calibrated to anchor 2% inflation and foster adjustment, with no cuts signaled barring downside surprises in growth or prices. Attention now turns to Q2 durability, core inflation persistence, and evolving trade/geopolitical clarity.
• The next meeting is on 29 April 2026.

Next 24 Hours Bias
Weak Bearish

Oil

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from Oil today?

Oil prices climbed on Monday, as hopes for a second round of US‑Iran peace talks faded and geopolitical risk in the Middle East flared anew, keeping the Strait of Hormuz supply channel under pressure and pushing Brent crude back toward the mid‑$100s per barrel and WTI closer to $96 per barrel amid ongoing volatility and elevated risk premia.

Next 24 Hours Bias
Medium Bullish

The post IC Markets Global – Europe Fundamental Forecast | 27 April 2026 first appeared on IC Your Trading Edge | Official Blog.

I’d be very careful in trying to read the headlines that are doing the rounds at the moment. There are plenty of sources on social media echoing the same headlines that we’ve seen from earlier here:

• Iran proposes Hormuz deal without nuclear talks in bid to break US negotiation deadlock

The headlines are along the lines of “Iran reopens Strait of Hormuz without nuclear deal”. That is a very dangerous set of words without any context. So, be wary of that just in case.

As a reminder, the main point of the story is that Iran is reportedly proposing to offer a concession to the US in “reopening” the Strait of Hormuz with nuclear negotiations set for a later date. The proposal is meant to try and break the deadlock between the two sides now and argues for nuclear talks to only begin but only after the Strait of Hormuz is reopened and the US lifts its naval blockade.

This whole thing is likely why Iran foreign minister Araghchi also visited Oman, to seek discussions in managing traffic and safe transit along the waterway.

But as a reminder, control over the Strait of Hormuz is still Iran’s number one leverage against the US at this stage. If they are to so easily give that up, they surely know they would be cornered in any negotiations after. As such, don’t expect this “reopening” to be one that sees movement along the strait return to normal.

If anything else, we’re likely to only see a more limited “reopening” and a conditional one where ship traffic is allowed to slowly pick up over time. And even then, we surely won’t see traffic return to what it was before the conflict started.

In any case, this “reopening” is also conditional on the US lifting its naval blockade. Otherwise, any “reopening” will quickly be off the table like what we saw before.

This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

Dubai, UAE – 10.04.26

IC (previously IC Markets), a leading global provider of online trading services, has announced a strategic partnership with Guillermo Ochoa, accelerating its expansion across Latin America with a sharp focus on Mexico—one of its fastest-growing markets.

An icon of modern football, Ochoa continues to perform at the highest level with AEL Limassol, maintaining his status as one of Mexico’s most trusted and recognizable sporting figures. With a distinguished international career and widely expected to anchor Mexico’s goal in the next cycle of global competition, his influence across Mexico and Latin America remains unmatched.

Through this partnership, IC secures exclusive rights to Ochoa’s name, image, and likeness across global marketing channels, enabling a high-impact, culturally resonant rollout across the region. The collaboration is designed to convert momentum into market dominance—combining IC’s global trading infrastructure with Ochoa’s credibility, reach, and deep-rooted trust among millions of fans.

“This is a strategic move, not a branding exercise,” said Andrew Budzinski, Founder of IC. “Guillermo Ochoa represents performance under pressure, consistency at the highest level, and absolute trust—exactly what trading demands. As we scale aggressively in markets like Mexico, this partnership allows us to cut through faster, connect deeper, and convert stronger.”

Ochoa added: “I have always believed that success comes from discipline, preparation, and performing when it matters most. IC shares that same mindset. This partnership is about connecting with people who are focused on improving, growing, and making smarter decisions every day, and I’m excited to be part of that journey with them.”

IC will activate the partnership through a fully integrated, multi-channel strategy spanning broadcast, digital, and social ecosystems. Premium live match exposure across Latin America, combined with high-performance digital acquisition campaigns and localized content, is expected to significantly expand reach while driving measurable improvements in engagement, conversion, and client acquisition efficiency.

This partnership strengthens IC’s growing global sports portfolio, alongside its high-profile relationship with the Haas F1 Team, reinforcing the brand’s positioning at the intersection of performance, precision, and global scale. As Latin America continues to emerge as a critical growth market, IC is doubling down on strategic investments that deliver both brand impact and commercial returns.

The post IC signs Guillermo Ochoa to Accelerate Growth Across Latin America first appeared on IC Your Trading Edge | Official Blog.

Global Markets:

•  Asian Stock Markets : Nikkei up 1.74%, Shanghai Composite up 0.15% Hang Seng up 0.18% ASX down 0.19%
• Commodities : Gold at $4,740.21 (-0.04%) Silver at $76.430 (0.02%), Brent Oil at $100.41 (1.27%), WTI Oil at $95.36 (1.03%)
• Rates : US 10-year yield at 4.318, UK 10-year yield at 4.9320, Germany 10-year yield at 3.0068

News & Data:

• (CAD) Core Retail Sales m/m 0.5%  to 0.8%  expected

Markets Update:

Asia-Pacific markets mostly advanced on Monday as investors looked beyond renewed diplomatic friction between the United States and Iran, even though rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East continued to support higher oil prices. 

Japan’s Nikkei 225 climbed 1.4% to reach a record high, while South Korea’s Kospi surged 1.83%, also touching a fresh peak. In contrast, Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 slipped 0.54%. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index edged down 0.17%, whereas mainland China’s CSI 300 gained 0.25% after China reported a strong 15.8% year-on-year rise in March industrial profits, accelerating from the 15.2% growth recorded in the first two months of the year.

Market sentiment remained relatively resilient despite U.S. President Donald Trump canceling plans to send envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner to Islamabad for talks with Iran, citing internal confusion within Iran’s leadership.

Oil prices jumped roughly 2% after another attempt at peace negotiations between Washington and Tehran stalled. Brent crude rose above $107 per barrel, while U.S. crude climbed near $96. 

Tensions also stayed elevated around the Strait of Hormuz following reports that Iran’s Revolutionary Guard boarded two cargo vessels near the strategic shipping route. Meanwhile, U.S. stock futures edged lower, even as the S&P 500 and Nasdaq closed at record highs last Friday.

Upcoming Events:

• 12:30 PM GMT – USD Core Retail Sales m/m
• 11:01 PM GMT – GBP BRC Shop Price Index y/y

The post Monday 27th April 2026: Asia-Pacific Markets Rise Despite U.S.–Iran Tensions as Oil Prices Climb first appeared on IC Your Trading Edge | Official Blog.

IC Markets Global – Asia Fundamental Forecast | 27 April 2026

What happened in the U.S. session?

U.S.-Iran stalemate, the outlook for Fed policy, and lingering inflation pressure from higher oil prices, with Reuters also flagging a political development around Fed chair nominee Kevin Warsh. The most relevant macro backdrop was that U.S. investors were digesting a run of labor-market and growth signals already in focus, while the key overnight theme remained “higher-for-longer” rates risk rather than a fresh blockbuster data surprise.

What does it mean for the Asia Session?

Traders should expect a cautious start with positioning shaped by the coming BoJ, Australia CPI, and China PMI releases, while the main cross-market risk remains the Middle East energy story and its impact on inflation, the yen, and regional risk assets. In practice, that means watching USD/JPY, AUD/USD, oil, gold and Asia equity futures closely, because the market is likely to trade on policy expectations and geopolitics before the week’s biggest data hits.

​
The Dollar Index (DXY)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from DXY today?

The dollar starts the week on 27 April 2026 slightly softer, hovering just below 100 on the DXY as traders balance the Fed’s still‑restrictive stance and elevated US yields against expectations of at least one rate cut in 2026 and weakening US consumer sentiment, all while keeping an eye on the 28–29 April FOMC decision and ongoing Middle East headlines.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is widely expected to hold the federal funds rate target range steady at 3.50%–3.75% at its March 17–18, 2026, meeting, amid rising oil prices from the US-Israel war against Iran and persistent inflation pressures, delaying any 2026 cuts potentially to September.
• The Committee continues to pursue maximum employment and 2% inflation goals, with the labor market weakening further as nonfarm payrolls declined by 92,000 in February 2026 and the unemployment rate rose to 4.4% from 4.3% in January.
• Officials face tilted risks from geopolitical tensions, elevated oil prices, and sticky inflation, with CPI steady at 2.4% year-over-year in February 2026, headline PCE at 2.8% in January, and core PCE rising to 3.1%.
• Economic activity has cooled after robust Q4 2025 growth near 5%, with the Atlanta Fed GDPNow now estimating Q1 2026 growth at around 2.1%–2.7% amid softer consumer spending and labor data.
• December 2025’s Summary of Economic Projections forecasts 2025 unemployment at a median of 4.5%, 2026 GDP growth at 2.3%, and core PCE at 2.5%, with the dot plot signaling one more cut in 2026 to a median 3.4% funds rate; March updates may reflect softer labor and inflation upticks.
• The Committee maintains its data-dependent stance amid a softening labor market, inflation above target, and new oil shocks, likely holding rates at 3.50%-3.75% with ongoing divisions and possible hawkish dissents on rate cuts.
• The FOMC continues its adjusted quantitative tightening, with Treasury rolloff caps at $5 billion per month and agency MBS at $35 billion per month to ensure ample reserves post-2025 program adjustments.
• The next meeting is scheduled for 28 to 29 April 2026.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bullish

Gold (XAU)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from Gold today?

Gold opened Monday in a narrow, choppy range just below 4,800 USD/oz, consolidating after a strong first‑quarter run that lifted prices over 40% year‑on‑year. Markets remain sensitive to Fed policy signals and broader risk‑off headlines, but for now, sentiment is balanced, with many traders positioned for a possible downside break in the near‑term horizon rather than a fresh leg higher.

Next 24 Hours Bias
Medium Bullish

The Australian Dollar (AUD)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from AUD today?

The Australian dollar (AUD/USD) remains in a period of consolidation, navigating between ongoing geopolitical risks and domestic inflationary pressures. The currency continues to trade within a bullish channel, though it faces technical resistance near the 0.7134 level, with market sentiment currently balancing the potential for a bearish correction against the support provided by a hawkish Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA).

Central Bank Notes:

• The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is expected to hold its cash rate at 3.85% at the March 16-17, 2026 policy meeting, following the widely anticipated 25 basis point hike to 3.85% in early February after persistent inflation pressures from late 2025. While some banks like CBA, NAB, and Westpac now forecast a further 25-basis-point rise to 4.10% as soon as May if inflation data remains sticky, consensus tilts toward a pause in March to assess incoming monthly CPI and labor market signals. The February hike reversed prior cuts, entering mildly restrictive territory amid capacity pressures, with the board emphasizing data dependence.
• Inflation remains elevated, with December 2025 CPI at 3.8% year-on-year and trimmed mean at 3.3%, above the 2–3% target midpoint. RBA’s February Statement revised forecasts higher, projecting trimmed-mean inflation to peak in mid-2026 above 3% and remain elevated through early 2027, driven by services, housing, and demand resilience despite some monthly cooling, such as January’s 0.2% MoM gauge. Monthly CPI data continues to highlight core stickiness beyond energy rebates, delaying the target return to late 2027 or beyond.
• January 2026 monthly indicators showed modest easing, but headline CPI risks upward surprises from housing (up recently) and services amid firm domestic demand. Trimmed mean pressures persist from wage growth and capacity constraints, with consumer expectations ticking to 5% YoY in February surveys. Enhanced monthly reporting sharpens vigilance on potential broad-based pick-up.
• The labor market shows softening, with unemployment around 4.1-4.4%, down slightly to 4.1% in December, but unit labor costs are elevated due to subdued productivity. Household spending faces higher borrowing costs post-hike, yet private demand recovery sustains capacity strains. Vulnerabilities persist amid resilient employment dynamics.
• Global growth modestly revised up but tempered by geopolitics and commodity volatility; policy now restrictive post-February, with the RBA balancing inflation against employment risks. Data from the monthly CPI and Q1 GDP will guide, amid household debt sensitivities.
• Sustained restrictive stance post-February anchors inflation return to target, upholding dual mandate with flexibility to new risks like further inflation upticks.
• Markets price a March hold at 3.85%, with big four banks split: CBA, NAB, Westpac eye May hike to 4.10% if persistence continues, while others see limited upside unless acceleration. Upcoming monthly CPI pivotal for Q2 trajectory.
• Policy vigilance counters inflation stickiness against household fragilities and global uncertainties, reaffirming adaptability under dual mandate.
• Base case favors March hold with risks tilted hawkish for further hikes if data is hot; monthly indicators key to 2026 path.
• The next meeting is on 5 to 6 May 2026.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bullish

The Kiwi Dollar (NZD)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from NZD today?

The New Zealand dollar is currently trading with a mild bullish bias, supported by persistent inflation and a more hawkish RBNZ tone, but gains are being capped by global risk uncertainty and the market’s focus on Monday’s trade balance data. A better-than-expected trade number would likely help NZD extend its recent recovery, while a wider deficit could quickly pressure the currency again.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is widely expected to hold the Official Cash Rate (OCR) steady at 2.25% at its 8 April 2026 Monetary Policy Review, aligning with unanimous market consensus from Reuters polls and previews.
• The MPC continues its data-dependent “wait-and-see” approach after February’s pause, balancing stimulus from prior 325-basis-point cuts against inflation’s path back to the 2% target, with readiness for gradual normalization only if the recovery strengthens or inflation exceeds forecasts.
• Headline CPI, last at 3.1%, is on track to re-enter the 1-3% band in Q2 2026 and hit 2% by mid-2027, aided by spare capacity, moderating wages, and softer food/fuel prices; two-year business inflation expectations have ticked up slightly to 2.37%.
• Household spending and housing remain subdued amid cautious consumption, low net migration, and labor market softness, though easing retail rates support budgets; high-frequency GDP indicators show steadying momentum in an early recovery phase.
• Accommodative borrowing costs from the low OCR are boosting mortgage approvals and sentiment, but business credit growth lags due to uneven confidence; overall stimulus persists below the 3% neutral rate.
• Risks are balanced, with a favorable global environment—including stronger dairy/meat exports and a softer NZ dollar—offsetting oil shocks and prior China/US trade worries; vigilance remains on second-round inflation effects.
• Forecasts point to potential OCR hikes starting late 2026 (e.g., December) or early 2027 to 2.50% by year-end if activity/inflation firms, but policy stays supportive if recovery unfolds gradually as expected.
• The next meeting is on 27 May 2026.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish

The Japanese Yen (JPY)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from JPY today?

The yen has been bouncing between short-lived gains and renewed weakness, but the overall tone remains fragile. Recent commentary from BOJ officials has not given traders a strong reason to expect immediate tightening, while repeated warnings from Tokyo suggest policymakers are uncomfortable with the currency’s weakness; that keeps intervention talk alive, especially if USD/JPY pushes closer to 160.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Policy Board of the Bank of Japan meets on 18–19 April 2026, with markets anticipating the short-term policy rate to remain at 0.75%, as the bank continues evaluating the December 2025 and prior hikes’ effects amid data-dependent normalization.
• The BOJ will target the uncollateralized overnight call rate around 0.75% and indicate future hikes hinge on impacts to lending, financing, and activity, with Governor Ueda signaling scrutiny of data for potential moves in April or later meetings.
• JGB tapering advances per plan, cutting outright purchases by ¥400 billion quarterly through Q1 2026 and slowing to ¥200 billion from April onward, targeting roughly ¥2-3 trillion monthly by mid-2026, adjustable for market stability
• Japan’s economy maintains moderate growth into Q1 2026, building on the Q4 2025 rebound via exports and fiscal measures, though manufacturing sentiment holds soft amid overseas demand weakness and yen pressures.
• Core CPI (ex-fresh food) likely stays near 2.3-2.5% y/y in early 2026. Tokyo prints off prior highs but above 2%, while core-core hovers around 2.6%, reflecting sustained but easing inflationary forces.
• Input costs ease further from import peaks, yet services inflation, 5% wage targets in shunto talks, and anchored expectations above 2% support price persistence, with upside risks from yen and geopolitics.
• Near-term real GDP may ease below trend due to tightening and external shocks like Iran tensions, but negative real rates, wage gains, and stimulus should underpin consumption and capex rebound.
• Medium-term, overseas recovery, labor shortages, and productivity lifts are set to fuel wages and core inflation near/above 2%, enabling gradual hikes toward 1% if conditions align.
• The next meeting is on 27 to 28 April 2026.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bearish

Oil

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from Oil today?

Today’s oil market is characterized by elevated but somewhat stabilized prices driven by lingering geopolitical risk around Iran and the Strait of Hormuz, combined with a cautious OPEC+ strategy that has begun modestly increasing output while reserving the option to cut again if conditions worsen; this backdrop supports a genuinely volatile trading environment where WTI oscillates in the 90s and Brent remains above 100, with every headline on Middle‑East tensions capable of triggering sharp intraday moves.

Next 24 Hours Bias
Medium Bullish

The post IC Markets Global – Asia Fundamental Forecast | 27 April 2026 first appeared on IC Your Trading Edge | Official Blog.

DXY (U.S. Dollar Index):

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

The price has already bounced off the pivot and may continue its bullish move toward the 1st resistance

Pivot: 98.01

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns with the 50% Fiboancci retracement, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 95.80

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing low support, indicating a potential area where the price could again stabilize.

1st resistance: 100.53
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement

EUR/USD:

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price has already reacted off the pivot and may continue its bearish move toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 1.1808

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 1.1631

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once again

1st resistance: 1.2044

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

EUR/JPY:

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before rising again toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 186.22

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 184.64
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a potential area where the price could again stabilize.

1st resistance: 189.52
Supporting reasons: Identified as a resistance that aligns with the 161.8% Fibonacci extension, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

EUR/GBP:

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before continuing its bearish move down toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 0.8687

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 0.8619
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing low support, indicating a potential area where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 0.8769
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

GBP/USD:

Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price has already bounced off the pivot and may continue its bullish move toward the 1st resistance

Pivot: 1.3461

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 1.3195
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support that aligns with the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 1.3860
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance, indicating a potential level that could halt further upward movement.

GBP/JPY:

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could make a short-term pullback toward the pivot before rising again toward the 1st resistance

Pivot: 213.22

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 209.64
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 217.18
Supporting reasons: Identified as a resistance that aligns with the 127.2% Fibonacci extension, indicating a potential level that could halt further upward movement.

USD/CHF:

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

The price has already reacted off the pivot and may continue its bearish move toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 0.7871

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 0.7752
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 0.8030
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

USD/JPY:

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price has already bounced off the pivot and may continue its bullish move toward the 1st resistance

Pivot: 157.58

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 154.24

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a strong area where buyers might return, and the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 161.74

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance. This level represents the next key area where upward movement could be capped amid increased selling pressure

USD/CAD:

Potential Direction: Bullish                                                                                                                                                                              

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

The price has already bounced off the pivot and may continue its bullish move toward the 1st resistance

Pivot: 1.3647

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 1.3547

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing low support, indicating a key level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 1.3940

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, making it a possible target for bullish advances and a level where some sellers could return to cap gains

AUD/USD:

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could make a short-term pullback toward the pivot before rising again toward the 1st resistance

Pivot: 0.6943

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 0.6676

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, this area has provided strong support historically and may attract buying interest for a potential short-term bounce

1st resistance: 0.7182

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

NZD/USD

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

The price has already reacted off the pivot and may continue its bearish move toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 0.5946

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 0.5774

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, this area has provided strong support historically and may attract buying interest for a potential short-term bounce

1st resistance: 0.6079

Supporting reasons: Identified a swing high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

US30 (DJIA):

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before continuing its bearish move down toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 49,687.50

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 46,872.00

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, suggesting a potential area where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 50,477.23

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

DE40 (DAX):

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before continuing its bearish move down toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 24,805.50

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 23,332.36

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a key level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 25,451.76

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

US500 (S&P 500):

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could make a short-term pullback toward the pivot before rising again toward the 1st resistance

Pivot: 6,992.26

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 6,531.49

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 7,451.23

Supporting reasons: Identified as a resistance that aligns with the 161.8% Fibonacci extension, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

BTC/USD (Bitcoin):

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price has already reacted off the pivot and may continue its bearish move toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 76,476.06

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 71,074.92

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 85,026.77

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

ETH/USD (Ethereum):

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before continuing its bearish move down toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 2,618.80

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 2,156.71

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 3,053.33
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

WTI/USD (Oil):

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price has already bounced off the pivot and may continue its bullish move toward the 1st resistance

Pivot: 87.53

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 73.75
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a key level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 119.24
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

XAU/USD (GOLD):

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price has already reacted off the pivot and may continue its bearish move toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 4,858.96

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 4,367.70
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a key level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 5,464.42
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

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The post Monday 27th April 2026: Technical Outlook and Review first appeared on IC Your Trading Edge | Official Blog.

It was another big week for markets last week, with geopolitical updates from the Middle East again dominating market moves. However, sentiment remained high, with several bourses again hitting record levels despite a distinct lack of progress in the Persian Gulf.
The week ahead is a massive one for markets, with further geopolitical updates likely to hit markets, as well as a very full macroeconomic calendar featuring no less than five major central banks set to make interest rate calls, some major tier 1 data due for release, and big earnings updates from major tech firms in the US.
News out of the US of a shooting incident at an event attended by President Trump on Saturday is unlikely to lead to major moves in the market. However, the update that he cancelled the trip of key negotiators to Pakistan may lead to some downside sentiment moves on the Monday open.

Here is our usual day-by-day breakdown of the major risk events this week:

It is very much the calm before the central bank storm on Monday, with very little on the macroeconomic calendar. Again, geopolitical updates from the weekend are likely to add to volatility on the open.

The calendar kicks into action on Tuesday, with the main event coming in the first session of the day, when the Bank of Japan announces its latest interest rate decision. There is little of note in the London session, but the New York day sees the first major US data of the week in the form of CB Consumer Confidence data early in the session.

It’s a big calendar day on Wednesday. The initial focus will be on Australian markets in the Asian session, with key CPI data due out. The London session will see German CPI numbers delivered across the course of the day. However, the big events will bookend the US session, with the Bank of Canada making its rate call early in the day, before, a few hours later, we hear from the Federal Reserve Bank on what could be Jerome Powell’s last update as Chairman.

It is a massive day on the event calendar on Thursday, although the Asian session is relatively quiet. The London session sees updates coming thick and fast, with German GDP data due out before key EU CPI flash numbers. Then, later in the session, we have the big interest rate calls from the Bank of England and the European Central Bank. The New York session is equally as busy, with both Canadian and US GDP data out, alongside the US Core PCE Price Index, Employment Cost Index, and weekly unemployment claims numbers.

Traders will be hoping for a quiet day to close out the week on Friday, and it is quiet on the economic calendar. However, bank holidays in several major centres may lead to exacerbated moves if any fresh geopolitical updates hit the newswires.

The post The Week Ahead – Week Commencing 27 April 2026 first appeared on IC Your Trading Edge | Official Blog.

US Tech Stocks Drive Higher into the Weekend – Nasdaq up 1.6%

US equity markets closed out the week with a divergence in performance across the major indices. The Nasdaq outperformed, rallying 1.63% to finish at a record 24,836, while the S&P gained 0.80% to close at 7,165, also marking a fresh record close. In contrast, the Dow Jones lagged, slipping 0.16% to 49,230. In bond markets, US Treasury yields moved lower across the curve, with the 2-year yield falling 5.5 basis points to 3.778% and the 10-year yield declining 2.4 basis points to 4.301%. The move lower in yields came alongside weakness in the US dollar, with the USD Index dropping 0.26% to 98.51. Market sentiment in rates and FX was influenced by reports that the Department of Justice is set to close its investigation into Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, opening the way for Kevin Warsh to take over the reins in the coming months. Commodity markets delivered a mixed performance to end the week. Brent edged higher by 0.25% to $105.33 per barrel, while WTI crude declined 1.51% to $94.40 per barrel, as uncertainty around Gulf negotiations continued to underpin elevated pricing despite a lack of concrete progress. Gold prices moved higher, gaining 0.32% to $4,709.50, supported by the softer US dollar and lower yields environment.

Geopolitics and Fundamentals to Drive Markets this Week

Geopolitical developments remained in focus over the weekend. A shooting incident at an event in Washington attended by President Trump is not expected to significantly impact market sentiment. However, reports that the US has cancelled a planned diplomatic trip to Pakistan may introduce a modest risk-off tone as the new trading week begins. Traders will continue to keep a very close eye on all updates on the Middle East, especially if there is any sign of an escalation in hostilities or the possibility of a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, but they will also be turning their attention back to fundamentals as the week progresses, with several major central banks set to give interest rate updates and some key data releases set to drop. The main focus will be on how central banks are looking to react to the inflationary pressures brought about by recent surging energy prices and how much this could affect global markets in the coming months. With so many moving parts and updates in the coming days, traders are expecting to see plenty of volatility across all financial products.

Quiet Start to a Busy Trading Week

It is a quiet start to a busy trading week, with very little of note on the macroeconomic calendar to move markets for the first three sessions of the week. Trading conditions in the Asian session are expected to be relatively subdued, with both Australia and New Zealand observing public holidays, likely resulting in thinner liquidity across the region. We have seen some gapping in FX on the Asian open, with some dollar strength hitting the market from a haven perspective, but so far trading has been orderly. There is also very little on the calendar in both the London and New York sessions today, and so traders will be looking to the newswires for any geopolitical updates to spur fresh direction, with the Middle East still very much front of mind and attention for most.

The post General Market Analysis – 27/04/26 first appeared on IC Your Trading Edge | Official Blog.

• Prior -28.0; revised to -28.1

The German consumer climate worsens to a three-year low as the fallout from the Middle East conflict continues to take a toll on Europe’s largest economy.

In particular, higher energy prices and in turn higher inflation is translating into a major worry for German households. And that is reflected by a nosedive in income expectations, which fell from -6.3 in April to -24.4 going into May. Economic expectations also declined further, down from -6.9 in April to -13.7 going into May.

On the latter, we’re pretty much circling levels last seen back during the Russia-Ukraine crisis in 2022. So, that’s a clear enough signal to how dire the outlook is as we look to the months ahead. And especially as the Middle East conflict shows no signs of easing just yet.

GfK notes that:

“Income expectations are collapsing as a result of rising inflation. Against this backrop, people also consider the current time to be less favourable for major purchases.”

This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

This ties back to the earlier headline, where Araghchi spoke about “important discussions” with Oman on the Strait of Hormuz. He now says that Iran and Oman have agreed to “continue consultations on the strait with expert-level talks”. This ties to the earlier headline that Iran is perhaps trying to work out a proposal for safe transit of the waterway.

While the headline sounds positive and may mark a break of the hard line that Iran has been holding, it is best to be reminded that Tehran officials will not give away too much leverage over the situation. As a reminder, their ace card is control over the Strait of Hormuz. And to give that up before any agreement on the nuclear agenda would be wishful thinking.

If anything else, expect any “reopening” of the strait to be very limited in nature. In other words, it is a bit part concession that Iran wants to offer up in exchange for the US breaking its naval blockade. It isn’t to say that Iran is giving up control of the strait entirely. So, keep that in mind.

Risk trades are still taking a more positive cue from the latest development though. S&P 500 futures are now up 0.1% after dropping by around 0.3% earlier in the day. Meanwhile, WTI crude has also eased a touch from a high of $96.68 at the start of the day to $95.35 currently.

This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

• India signs New Zealand free trade deal as Modi accelerates global FTA push
• Preview: Bank of Japan rate decision knife-edge, Japan inflation runs hotter than expected
• Citi says oil flow disruption could continue, Brent could hit US$150 / barrel
• China industrial profits surge at fastest pace since September in boost for economy
• Iran proposes Hormuz deal without nuclear talks in bid to break US negotiation deadlock
• People’s Bank of China sets yuan reference rate at 6.8579 (vs. estimate at 6.8282)
• Heads up for Japan market holiday this week, and then three the following week
• China imports set to overtake exports for first time since 2021 on AI chip surge
• Trump’s 60 Minutes interview has nothing on his war on Iran so far
• Goldman Sachs raises Q4 2026 oil forecasts. Mid East output loss drive big inventory draw
• US futures (Globex) are open. Oil up, stocks down on US-Iran talks stalling
• Iran’s FM said had discussion with Oman on ways to ensure safe transit in Hormuz Strait
• Reports a cargo ship has been attacked south of Bab al-Mandab Strait. Second front opening
• An hour after the Globex open Trump will be speaking in an interview on 60 Minutes
• Northern Japan early morning earthquake. M6.1
• Reports that Iran presents three-phase peace framework, with nuclear talks held to last
• Monday open FX (unlike the closed Strait of Hormuz). Indicative rates 27 April 2026
• Trump: Iran war’s end will come very soon and it will be victorious
• Newsquawk Week in Focus: Fed, BoJ, BoE, ECB, BoC, US PCE, GDP and ISM mfg. PMI
• Trump cancels Pakistan trip for Kushner and Witkoff
• Pakistan talks: Iran delivered both their demands and reservations about US demands

At a glance:

• Oil opened higher on Globex bids but gains were unwound through the session
• Trump cancelled envoy trip to Pakistan and maintained naval blockade; Iran kept Hormuz closed, lifting oil in Sunday evening US trade; gold and stocks fell on the news
• Trump struck a measured tone, saying he was willing to negotiate with Iran by phone
• Iran passed a new proposal via Pakistani mediators to reopen Hormuz and lift the blockade first, with nuclear talks to follow at a later stage
• Iranian FM Araghchi visited Oman, meeting Sultan Haitham bin Tariq to discuss ending the war, regional stability and safe Hormuz transit; presented a “workable framework” for a permanent end to the conflict
• Reports of a cargo ship attacked south of Bab al-Mandab Strait, raising fears of a second front opening in the Iran conflict
• Axios publication of the Iran-US proposal gave risk assets a boost and trimmed oil prices; regional equities and US equity index futures on Globex gained
• Lebanon-Israel ceasefire has broken down with both sides continuing missile exchanges
• USD opened higher early in the session but reversed lower

Oil markets opened the week on the front foot, with buyers pushing prices higher on Globex at the Sunday open, but the gains proved short-lived as the session wore on and the initial risk premium was gradually unwound.

The weekend had set a cautious tone. Trump’s decision to cancel the planned trip by envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner to Islamabad, combined with Iran’s continued effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, had driven oil higher in Sunday evening US trade, with gold and equities moving lower as investors weighed the implications of a deepening stalemate.

Trump’s own messaging was less hawkish than his actions implied, however. The US president signalled he was prepared to negotiate with Iran by telephone, a remark that took some of the edge off the geopolitical risk premium and suggested Washington had not entirely closed the door on a diplomatic path forward.

Behind the scenes, Iran had passed a new proposal to the White House via Pakistani mediators, offering to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and lift the naval blockade first, with nuclear negotiations to follow at a later stage. The proposal is designed to bypass deep internal divisions within the Iranian leadership over the scope of nuclear concessions Tehran is willing to offer. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi reinforced the diplomatic push with a visit to Muscat, where he met Sultan Haitham bin Tariq to discuss ending the war and advancing regional stability. Araghchi presented what was described as a workable framework for a permanent end to the conflict, with Oman’s role as a key mediator front and centre. Safe transit through the Strait of Hormuz was high on the agenda.

Adding to the tension, reports emerged of a cargo ship being attacked south of the Bab al-Mandab Strait, raising concerns that a second front is opening in the broader conflict with Iran and that shipping disruption may extend well beyond Hormuz.

The mood in markets shifted when the Iran proposal received wider mainstream coverage following Axios publishing the story. The broader pickup in coverage gave risk assets a meaningful boost, trimming oil prices from their earlier highs while lifting regional equities and US equity index futures on Globex, as traders reassessed the probability of a diplomatic breakthrough.

Elsewhere, the Lebanon-Israel ceasefire has broken down, with both sides exchanging missile fire in a further deterioration of the regional security picture. The US dollar opened firmer early in the session but reversed course and pressed lower as the day progressed.

—

Still to come:

President Trump is set to convene a Situation Room meeting with his senior national security and foreign policy advisers on Monday to assess the deadlocked Iran negotiations and weigh potential next steps in the conflict.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.