Market News

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW

USD:

The US dollar gave back most of its gains after Trump walked back on his hawkish rhetoric and said that negotiations would continue, claiming that Iran called him to make a deal.

That was enough to trigger a dovish repricing in interest rate expectations, taking us back to pre-escalation conditions. Barring another US-Iran escalation, the price action should remain mostly rangebound into the US CPI report due on Tuesday.

The CPI should have a major influence on interest rate expectations given the Fed’s focus on inflation. If the data surprises to the upside, we will likely see another rally in the US dollar on a hawkish repricing. Conversely, …

• BoJ set to keep interest rates unchanged in July but maintain policy guidance pledging to continue raising rates
• BoJ may revise up fiscal 2026 economic growth forecast in quarterly report due in July, keep focus on risk of inflation overshoot

The Bank of Japan is set to leave its benchmark interest rate unchanged at its July monetary policy meeting, while maintaining forward guidance that signals additional rate hikes remain likely if economic and inflation trends continue to evolve in line with its expectations, according to sources.

Although policymakers are not anticipated to adjust borrowing costs this month, the central bank is expected to reaffirm its commitment to gradually normalizing monetary policy. Officials are likely to stress…

IC Markets Global – Europe Fundamental Forecast | 10 July 2026

What happened in the Asia session?

Asia’s trading session on Friday was dominated by geopolitical developments surrounding the U.S.-Iran conflict rather than major macroeconomic data releases. Oil prices remained supported despite modest profit-taking, reflecting continued concerns over potential supply disruptions, while the Japanese yen stayed under pressure near multi-decade lows as markets watched for possible intervention from Japanese authorities. Regional equities benefited from the previous U.S. technology-led rally and improved risk sentiment, with semiconductor stocks outperforming.

What does it mean for the Europe & US sessions?

Markets are entering the European and…

As things stand, markets are well expecting the ECB to stay put in July. Policymakers themselves have confirmed that in saying that only a "negative surprise" to the June inflation numbers would really affect their line of thinking. And as we see with the data, inflation dynamics were slightly better in June and that will offer some comfort and breathing room for the ECB.

The supposed "reopening" of the Strait of Hormuz was supposed to help more with that. However, things have taken a turn for the worse in the past week and uncertainty continues to linger over the future.

Inflation pressures are still likely to stay as such with markets also being conditioned to arguably just one more rate hike by the ECB for this year. As things stand,…

• IEA sees total world oil supply 860K bps lower than demand in 2026 (versus 920K bps lower prior)
• IEA sees world oil demand falling by 1 million bpd in 2026 (versus 1.1 million bpd prior)
• IEA says world oil supply to fall by 3.7 million bpd in 2026 (versus 3.9 million bpd prior)
• For 2027, IEA sees supply growth of 7.5 million bpd if Hormuz strait transits improve, demand growth of 2 million bpd
• Escalation of hostilities could upend the 2027 surplus outlook

The International Energy Agency (IEA) slightly narrowed its forecast for the global oil market deficit in 2026 in its latest monthly report, while warning that the outlook for 2027 remains highly dependent on developments in the Strait of Hormuz.

The agency now expects total world oil supply…

•  Asian Stock Markets : Nikkei up 1.84%, Shanghai Composite up 0.76% Hang Seng up 1.73% ASX up 0.50%
• Commodities : Gold at $4,129.40 (-0.27%) Silver at $60.280 (0.13%), Brent Oil at $76.66 (0.47%), WTI Oil at $72.41 (0.43%)
• Rates : US 10-year yield at 4.540, UK 10-year yield at 4.8985, Germany 10-year yield at 3.0528

• (USD) Unemployment Claims 215K  to 218K  expected

U.S. stock futures slipped slightly on Thursday night after a strong Wall Street session that kept the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite on track for weekly gains. S&P 500 futures fell 0.12%, Nasdaq 100 futures lost 0.18%, while Dow futures were little changed.

On Thursday, the Nasdaq climbed 1.3%, the S&P 500…

Tech Markets Rally Despite War Concerns – Nasdaq up 1.3%

US equity markets finished higher overnight, with technology stocks once again leading the advance as renewed optimism surrounding semiconductor companies helped offset ongoing concerns surrounding the conflict in the Middle East. The Nasdaq outperformed, rising 1.30% to close at 26,206, while the broader S&P 500 gained 0.81% to finish at 7,543. The Dow Jones Industrial Average also moved higher, adding 0.27% to close at 52,487.

In fixed income markets, US Treasury yields eased as investors continued to monitor geopolitical developments and assess the outlook for monetary policy. The US 2-year Treasury yield declined 4.2 basis points to 4.177%, while the benchmark 10-year…

IC Markets Global – Asia Fundamental Forecast | 10 July 2026

What happened in the U.S. session?

A combination of the release of the Federal Reserve’s June FOMC meeting minutes, weekly U.S. jobless claims, and ongoing Middle East geopolitical developments. The Fed minutes reinforced concerns that policymakers remain worried about persistent inflation, particularly from higher energy prices, and showed that further rate hikes remain a possibility if inflation fails to ease. Meanwhile, initial jobless claims fell to 215,000, indicating that the U.S. labor market remains resilient despite recent signs of cooling.

What does it mean for the Asia Session?

Traders should keep a close eye on geopolitical developments, U.S. monetary policy…

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW

Gold has recouped all the losses experienced on Wednesday when Trump said to reporters at the NATO summit that the Memorandum of Understanding with Iran was over for him. Later on, Trump walked back on his comments and said that negotiations would continue, claiming that Iran called him to make a deal.

That was enough for traders to price out the geopolitical risk premium and go back to previous levels. Barring another US-Iran escalation, the price action should remain rangebound into the US CPI report due on Tuesday.

The US CPI should have a major influence on interest rate expectations given the Fed’s focus on inflation. If the data surprises to…

• June final CPI +1.8% vs +1.8% y/y prelim
• Prior +2.4%
• June final HICP +2.0% vs +2.0% y/y prelim
• Prior +2.8%

French headline annual inflation is confirmed at 1.8% in June, marking a drop from 2.4% in May. The decline in price pressures owes much to a sharp slowdown in energy prices, with that recording +11.1% in June as compared to +16.6% in May. Even on the monthly figure, headline inflation fell by 0.3% with energy prices seeing a sharp downturn (-4.2% in June after +0.6% in May).

That being said, core annual inflation also experienced a sharp drop in June as it falls to 1.0%. That is down from the 1.5% estimate in May. The sharp decline in core prices stemmed primarily from the slowdown in air transport prices and cyclical price decreases in…