Good morning, afternoon or evening to all ForexLive traders and welcome to the start of the new FX week!
On a Monday morning, market liquidity is very thin until it improves as more Asian centres come online.
As usual for an early Asia Monday morning, prices are liable to swing around on not too much at all, so take care out there.
Despite grim PMIs on the continent and risk-off around the globe on inflation worries, the euro and global stocks have been pressured of late with the resurgence of geopolitical worries stemming from the Ukraine crisis.
The news that Russian President Vladimir Putin moved to add 300,000 new troops to shore up the country’s flagging war on Ukraine and threatened to use nuclear weapons sent markets into a tailspin last week and there is little let-up in the latest headlines surrounding the debacle. However, the headlines are mixed and sactions remain the West’s weapon despite the threat of nucear conflict.
Ukraine Pres Zelenskiy was last heard saying that maybe ”Putin’s nuclear threats were a bluff, but now, it could be a reality” as per a CBS interview.
Meanwhile, the United States warned of “catastrophic consequences” if Moscow were to use nuclear weapons in Ukraine after Russia’s Foreign Minister said regions holding widely-criticized referendums would get full protection if annexed by Moscow.
Indeed, the Financial Times wrote, ”according to few western officials, any potential Russia’s nuclear strike against Ukraine would be unlikely to spark a retaliation in kind but would instead trigger conventional military responses from western states to punish Russia.”
Nat Sec Adviser Sullivan said that ”US privately and at a very high level informed Russia that any use of nuclear weapons would lead to catastrophic consequences for Russia because the US and its allies will give a decisive response.”
Reuters reports that ”votes in four eastern Ukrainian regions, aimed at annexing territory Russia has taken by force mostly since its invasion in February, were staged for a third day on Sunday. The Russian parliament could move to formalize the annexation within days.”
Prime Minister Liz Truss said Britain and its allies should not be listening to Russian President Vladimir Putin’s “sabre-rattling” on Ukraine after he ordered a partial mobilisation of troops and raised the possibility of nuclear conflict, as Reuters reports:
“We should not be listening to his sabre-rattling and his bogus threats. Instead, what we need to do is continue to put sanctions on Russia and continue to support the Ukrainians,” Truss told CNN in an interview broadcast on Sunday
As for markets, the US dollar, as measured by the ICE dollar index was reaching a high of 113.228 on Friday as bond yields touched the highest since 2010. The yield on the US 10-year note hit a high of 3.829% while the euro consequently fell for a fourth straight day, down 1.5% to $0.9686 for the close, 10 pips above the low of the day scored after data showed the downturn in the German economy worsened in September. The pound made another 37-year low of 1.0834.Full Article
The gold price remains well embedded below its 200-week moving average due to the expectations that the US central bank will keep on raising rates at historically large clips in the face of strong inflationary headwinds. Closing at its lowest in more than two years on Friday as the dollar rose to a two-decade high following the Federal Reserve’s latest hike to US interest rates last week, gold could be at a point of no return, at least for the immediate future should the USD and rates continue to move higher keeping pressure on the precious metals complex.
”We see the potential for continued outflows from money managers and ETF holdings to weigh on prices moving forward, which ultimately raises the probability of a pending capitulation from the small number of family offices and proprietary trading shops that hold complacent length in gold,” the analysts at TD Securities argued.
”In this context, while prices are certainly weak, precious metals’ price action could still have further to fall as the restrictive rates regime is set to last for longer.”
Let’s move to the technical landscape:
The price is extending lower and lower on a monthly basis and has just taken out some critical levels on the lower time frames as well as the monthly structures. A break of $1,577 opens risk to $1,512.
We have a similar scenario on the weekly chart towards the support of $1,632 following a break of key structure.
The daily chart is a little more clouded with the M-formation, a reversion pattern that could pull in the price prior to the next move to the downside.
On the other hand, the hourly chart has already seen a correction and if the bears commit to below 1,650, then the downside could play out a lot sooner, leaving the opening sessions as prospective bearish plays to start the week off.Full Article
Ethereum price trades at $1,323 on Sunday, several days after sliding to $1,200. It was a surprise that the largest smart contracts token would give up most of its gains during and after the much-publicized Merge.
On-chain data shows a significant reduction in the Ethereum Supply. As investors sold, pressure built, forcing Ether to explore downhill levels from $2,000 to $1,200. Meanwhile, Ethereum price is consolidating losses, a move that could attract interest from investors – hoping for a bullish turnaround toward the end of the year.
On-chain data from Santiment shows that Ethereum’s supply tanked in the days leading to the Merge on September 15. Large volume investors mainly drove the urge to sell. For instance, addresses holding between 1,000 and 10,000 tokens shrunk to 5,523 from 5,634 on September 14.
Addresses with tokens between 10,000 and 100,000 stand at 1,179 after dropping from 1,196 in the same period. Overhead pressure on Ethereum hit its peak as addresses holding between 100,000 and 1 million ETH tokens plunged to 138, recorded on August 28.
Ethereum Supply Distribution
From the chart above, investors have eased the selling pressure. Minor upside movements are evident but not strong enough to support a sustained bullish breakout. As soon as Ethereum price validates support at $1,200, the same investors pushing the price down will return to make the most of the potential move back to $2,000.
Ethereum price’s daily chart concurs with the decreased selloff drive among investors by firmly holding marginally above $1,300. The OBV (On Balance Volume) indicator is moving horizontally at the midline, which implies consolidation will take precedence before Ethereum price decides the direction it will take going forward.
ETH/USD daily chart
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) may add credibility to Ether’s optimistic outlook if it closes the gap to the mean line. Traders searching for entry positions should watch for the 12-day EMA (Exponential Moving Average – red) to step above the 26-day EMA (blue), validating the uptrend.
On the upside, Ethereum price might encounter a massive seller congestion zone at the 100-day SMA (Simple Moving Average – blue) – around $1,474. Other crucial targets sit at the 50-day SMA (red) – around $1,611 and the 200-day SMA (purple) – near $2,000.Full Article
Chainlink price is among the few crypto assets in the green on Sunday. The smart contacts’ price feed oracle token defied the bear market this week to post 23.7% gains. As discussed earlier in the week, the V-shaped pattern matured at LINK brushed shoulders with $8.00. Chainlink price must hold above this level to secure the gains made, allowing buyers to plan for the next move to $14.00.
Chainlink price is trading at $7.99 while facing extremely oversold conditions. The Stochastic RSI on its eight-hour chart maxed within a whisker of touching the 100.00 mark. It means that LINK price could be trading above its real market value, and a pullback is likely before the uptrend continues.
Profit takers at $8.00 would also contribute to the building overhead pressure, thus increasing the chances of a bearish correction. The OBV (On Balance Volume) indicators shows that Chainlink price lack momentum to carry on with the uptrend.
LINK/USD eight-hour chart
It might not be an awful idea if Chainlink price retreated to $7.00. The IOMAP on-chain metric by IntoTheBlock reveals that the region between $6.75 and $7.34 is a strong buyer congestion zone. Approximately 28,200 addresses previously purchased around 338.7 million LINK tokens in the area. Investors within this range are unlikely to bow to selling pressure. If anything, Chainlink price would collect more liquidity for a sharp rise to $14.00.
Chainlink IOMAP model
Weaker IOMAP cohorts to the upside affirm Chainlink price’s bullish outlook. In other words, the path with the least resistance is upward for now, but LINK price must first build momentum to avoid a pump and dump situation.Full Article
Bitcoin price is pivoting around $19,000 as it collects liquidity for its next move. This week’s trading was marred with challenging external forces from the United Kingdom’s Bank of England (BoE) and the United States Federal Reserve (Fed).
The latter hiked interest rates by 0.75%, with Jerome Powell, the Fed chair, reiterating that inflation must be combated. Although the BoE announced slightly less strict measures, its 0.50% hike saw interest rates spike to a 14-year high.
Bitcoin price and the crypto market have been feeling the pinch as investors shun risky assets. In other words, there isn’t just enough demand behind BTC for a rally despite analysts calling a floor price around $18,000.
Bitcoin bulls have a challenging task–defending the $19,000 inflection point. On the upside, a breakout is on the horizon following the formation of a symmetrical triangle pattern. The upper falling trendline shows sellers are not ready to let off Bitcoin price. However, the pattern’s ascending trend line cements buyers’ presence in the market.
As shown by the OBV (On Balance Volume) indicator, low trading volume signifies consolidation – and is synonymous with triangle breakouts.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator on the same four-hour chart flaunts a positive outlook. Bitcoin price’s 10% breakout above the triangle will gain traction as the MACD moves closer to the mean line. Movement into the positive region (above the mean line) would confirm BTC’s optimistic outcome.
BTC/USD four-hour chart
The IOMAP on-chain model by IntoTheBlock (ITB) presents a conflicting outlook, as observed in the chart below. As Bitcoin price lifts toward its triangle target at $20,915, it might encounter heavy overhead pressure stemming from the 1.09 million addresses that previously bought roughly 575,000 coins between $19,617 and $20,156.
Bitcoin IOMAP model
For a bullish breakout to $20,915, Bitcoin price must use this calm period to collect enough liquidity to overpower potential sellers. Otherwise, a recovery above $20,000 would remain a pipe dream to the extent of losses as far as $14,000.Full Article
XRP price is slowing down from its winning streak this week. The international money remittance token, issued by Ripple, jumped a whopping 75% from $0.3200 to $0.5615 between September 16 and September 23. XRP price successfully navigated a week characterized by numerous external forces related to inflation and the global economy.
XRP price’s strong week stems from a growing investor interest – and optimism that the case Ripple faces against the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) may soon end. Ripple and the SEC filed motions for summary judgment to compel the judge to dismiss the case before trial and rule in their favor.
The SEC filed the case against Ripple Labs and its top executives in December 2020 for allegedly selling unregistered securities. Nearly two years after the filing, the lawsuit still drags on.
No one knows how the court will handle the motions for summary judgment. However, XRP price would benefit immensely if the ruling favored Ripple Labs. FXStreet recently reported that the two conflicting parties might soon have a window to agree on a settlement. Nevertheless, this is unlikely to be the outcome with the latest developments.
The XRP community is extremely bullish following the development in court. On the other hand, XRP is doddering at $0.4901 after pulling back from its five-month high at $0.5615. The 200-day SMA (Simple Moving Average – purple) provides the payments token with immediate support.
As long as the 200-day SMA remains unbroken, investors won’t need to worry about losing the weekly accrued gains. However, a sell signal from the TD Sequential indicator reveals that selling pressure may be building, and a reversal is in the offing.
XRP/USD daily chart
The call to buy to XRP manifests in a green nine candlestick, but traders must confirm the actual sell order by checking whether the low of the sixth and the seventh candles in the count is exceeded by that of the eighth and ninth bars.
It is essential to remember that the bear market is still on – and so are the chances of a pullback. Traders looking for possible exit points should consider the 200-day SMA analyzed above. On the downside, new entries can be made around the resistance turned support at $0.3800.Full Article
Ethereum price is focused on returning positive results on Saturday. The largest smart contracts token has printed three bullish candles in a row to trade at $1,331. Excitement over the Merge event last week is still reverberating across the cryptocurrency market, but it’s doing little to flip ETH’s technical outlook bullish. The Merge took place on September 15 – ushering in a new dawn for Ethereum on a more energy-efficient proof-of-stake (PoS) consensus.
The daily chart’s DMI (Directional Movement Index) indicates the gradually declining overhead pressure. Support at $1,200 allowed previously sidelined investors to hop onto the bandwagon ahead of an anticipated move to $2,000. Ethereum price would gain momentum as the –DI (red) crosses above the +DI (blue).
A buy signal from the TD Sequential indicators, which manifested in red nine candlestick, is affirmative of the improving technical picture. Traders may consider buy orders if the low of the sixth and seventh candles close below the low of the eighth and ninth bars.
ETH/USD daily chart
Meanwhile, higher buyer congestion is required, preferably at $1,300, to protect the progress made from $1,200. Big movements north will be limited due to the lack of strong demand for the token.
The global economy is expected to continue struggling in the foreseeable future amid efforts to combat rising inflation. Investors, especially institutional, will likely keep off risky asset classes such as crypto until the global economy returns to favorable levels.
Now, eyes are set on the Ethereum price’s ability to step above $1,500 – a resistance level reinforced by the 100-day SMA (Simple Moving Average – blue). This move will confirm to investors that ETH has gathered the requisite liquidity to sustain an uptrend. However, Ethereum will only be safe from potential dips under $1,000 if it reclaims the position above $2,000.
It is worth mentioning that Ethereum price clustered between $1,500 and $1,700 for nearly two months (July 18 – September 16) before the most recent flash drop. In other words, the desired move to $2,000 might not be quickly achieved due to the seller congestion in this range. Traders should consider locking in early profits at the 100-day SMA and the hurdle at $1,700 to avoid losing accrued gains as Ethereum price recovers.Full Article
Tezos price is trading at $1.5267 after defying strong opposing forces witnessed in the cryptocurrency market this week. Investors remain jittery about the worsening economic environment globally, especially with inflation blowing off ceilings in the United States and Europe.
The United Kingdom has hinted at a recession amid a 0.1% decrease in its GDP (Gross Domestic Product), while Germany is at the risk of a -3.5% economic growth in 2023.
Tezos price climbed by almost 4% this week from support at $1.4000. However, profit takers were a stumbling block, forcing XTZ to abandon recovery on tagging $1.550. Support at $1.5170 must hold to prevent losses from erasing the token’s weekly progress.
Tezos announced its 11th protocol upgrade dubbed Kathmandu on September 23. The team said that the software upgrade is equipped to support off-chain computation using Layer 2 solutions such as optimistic roll-ups. Users can generally look forward to a better experience due to the streamlined blockchain process to achieve a higher transaction throughput.
— Tezos (@tezos) September 23, 2022
The team added in the upgrade’s formal proposal that Tezos now has a dedicated testnet protocol to be utilized when experimenting with new features – improving the random nature of the mainnet delegate selection, a move designed to enhance network security.
Investors positively reacted to the Kathmandu protocol upgrade by grabbing new positions. However, the bear market has taught traders to book early profits, thus initiating an ongoing pullback from a solid confluence resistance formed by the 100-day (blue) Simple Moving Average (SMA) and the 200-day SMA.
Now, all eyes are focused on the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level’s ability to absorb the rising selling pressure at $1.5192. Buyers may take back control if the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) firmly holds its positive outlook. Odds will favor a move up the ladder as long as the MACD settles above the mean line.
XTZ/USD four-hour chart
Investors will be looking for new entry positions at the 50-day SMA (red) if support at $1.5192 disintegrates. They may need to look for entries further down at $1.440 and $1.4000 if a selloff flares up.Full Article
Dogecoin price is at a critical juncture in the wake of a 22% jump in value this week. Initially, the move from support at $0.0560 saw Doge price respect a descending channel’s lower boundary.
A break above the channel defied negative economic news from the United States and the United Kingdom to close the gap to $0.0684. The largest meme token must consolidate gains at a higher level to secure a continued rally to $0.1000.
Dogecoin price is exchanging hands at $0.0654 while bulls double down on their efforts to prevent erasing the progress made over the last few days. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) affirms that buyers currently have the upper hand. However, further movement north would be restricted due to the decreasing trading volume.
DOGE/USD four-hour chart
Dogecoin price needs to make a four-hour to a daily close above the seller congestion at $0.0600. Otherwise, investors should start to acclimatize to an imminent pullback. The 200-day (purple) Simple Moving Average (SMA) is one of the key targets on the downside – the second being the 50-day SMA (red) at $0.0600.
It is preferable for Dogecoin price to first gather more liquidity before entering the second phase of its quest to reclaim the $0.1000 level. The IOMAP model reveals the presence of voluminous selling pressure between $0.0678 and $0.0698. Approximately 86,000 addresses previously bought 42.54 billion tokens in the range. It will be challenging for Dogecoin price to navigate through this hostile area because investors might consider offloading their bags at their respective breakeven points.
Dogecoin IOMAP model
On the other hand, the on-chain reveals the lack of vital support areas, which means the gains accrued this week are in danger of being wiped out. This sentiment also calls for caution from traders – consider locking in profits when you can, remembering the bear market is not over yet.Full Article
After dealing with a challenging week, Bitcoin price is finding footing at $19,000. Various unfavorable external forces curtailed recovery from support roughly at $18,000, forcing a rejection at around $19,500.
Most analysts are convinced that Bitcoin price has already touched its floor price, and the only way is to the upside. However, investors do not seem to agree and look elsewhere for opportunities amidst hiking interest rates to combat exploding inflation.
Bitcoin mining stocks have continued to wallow in murky waters, largely attributed to the crypto market bear run. This week was particularly tough for most stocks globally, with the US Federal Reserve raising interest rates by 0.75%. The Bank of England (BoE) announced a slightly lower hike of 0.5% to combat the ballooning inflation against high energy and food prices.
According to a stock report by The Block, Marathon Digital Holdings, Iris Energy and Cipher Mining had fallen the most by the close of the market on Friday. Losses were generally witnessed across all Bitcoin mining stocks while BTC price doddered below the $19,000 mark.
Bitcoin stocks performance chart
Since the beginning of the year, investors have cut investment budgets to risky markets, citing spiking inflation levels and a strict monetary policy. This means that while Bitcoin price may have tapped a floor price, it lacks the momentum to sustain recovery.
Meanwhile, Bitcoin price is gradually getting closer to symmetrical triangle pattern breakout, as shown on its daily chart. The direction of the potential move is still unknown; hence traders must wait for a natural break above or below the pattern.
A bullish outcome is possible, but buyers must defend the $18,500 level. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator’s buy signal adds credibility to BTC’s tentative 9.5% move to $20,914.
BTC/USD four-hour chart
If push comes to shove and selling pressure overwhelms buyers at $18,500, an equal opposite breakout to $16975 may come into play. Other targets on the downside are $18,050 and $17,450 for traders looking forward to shorting BTC price.Full Article