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We are seeing huge moves in markets after Trump announced a peace deal with Iran. The news was confirmed by Israel's N12, which suggests it's a broader deal that also includes Lebanon.

We are seeing large, immediate moves in markets with the S&P 500 up 1.3%, or just shy of 100 points. The Nasdaq is up 1.8% and the Russell 2000 is up 2.4%.

Another big mover is gold, which broke below some key levels yesterday. It's back above those today and rising by $90 to $4165, or 2.2%. Silver is up 4%.

Treasury yields are down 5-7 bps across the curve as inflation risks fade. The US dollar is broadly weaker and USD/JPY is flirting with 160.00 to the downside.

The big loser is oil, which is trading down $2.50 with the entire decline coming on this. I tend…

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Freddie Mac publishes a 30 year fixed-rate mortgage average for the week. In the current week, the average moved up from 6.48% to 6.52%. That is the highest rate for the year and the highest rate going back to August 25 when the yield was at 6.56%

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Looking at the chart, there is a floor near 5.98% to 6.08% that floor extends back to the end of August 2022. In early February, the yield moved to 5.98%.

The 100 and 200 week moving averages, come in at 6.50% and 6.62%. With the average yield at 6.52% this week, it sits between those longer-term averages suggesting a neutral bias.

For 2026, the housing market looks more like a slow-growth, high-rate environment than a boom or bust:

• Existing-home sales: roughly 4.0–4.2 million annual pace.
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The US treasury will auction off $22 billion of 30 year bonds at the top of the hour. The auction is the third of three coupon auctions this week. The three year note auction was met with average demand. The 10 year auction was met with strong international demand which led to a solid (grade A-) distribution (negative tail, higher than average bid to cover, lower dealer support needed).

The 30 year bond auction will determine the overall success of the issuance this week.

The 30-year Treasury bond is important because it reflects the market's view of long-term growth, inflation, and U.S. fiscal health.

• Higher 30-year yields can increase borrowing costs for businesses, infrastructure projects, and mortgages.
• It is a key gauge of investor…
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• Prior forecast was in January
• GDP growth could slow to 1.3% if energy supply disruptions continue
• Emerging market growth seen at 3.6% vs 4.4% last year. Down from 4.0% in January
• China GDP seen at 4.2% vs 4.4% in Jan
• Eurozone growth seen at 0.8% vs 0.9% in Jan
• US GDP seen at 2.2% vs 2.2% in Jan
• Cuts Middle East growth forecast to 1.6% from 4.3%

If anything, this underscores how resilient growth can be despite and energy shock. It took the market some time to figure that out but it's certainly in the stock market now.

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

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• Prior was +6.0% (revised to +5.7%)
• PPI +1.1% m/m vs +0.7% expected
• Prior m/m reading was +1.4%
• Ex food and energy +4.9% y/y vs +5.4% expected
• Ex food and energy +0.4% m/m vs +0.5% expected
• Prior m/m ex food and energy +1.0% (revised to +0.7%)
• Ex food, energy and trade +5.1% vs +4.4% prior
• Ex food, energy and trade +0.8% vs +0.5% prior

The headline highlights the pipeline problem for US inflation as the Iran war continues and it will feed into PCE inflation next week. The market will take some solace in the downward revisions and the core readings. They offer a similar take to CPI, which showed that higher prices were largely lodged in energy. However when you also strip out trade, there is a significant acceleration that indicates that tariff…

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• Prior +10.3% revised to +10.5%

In April, the total value of building permits issued in Canada decreased $1.0 billion (-7.6%) to $12.5 billion. Both the non-residential sector (-10.5%) and the residential sector (-5.5%) contributed to the decline in construction intentions.

On a constant dollar basis (2023=100), the total value of building permits issued in April declined 7.7% from the previous month and was up 2.7% on a year-over-year basis.

Residential construction intentions declined by $437.7 million to $7.5 billion in April. The multi-family component (-$429.7 million to $4.8 billion) accounted for most of the decline in the month, while the single-family component remained virtually unchanged, at $2.7 billion.

For background on the…

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Trump writes on Truth Social:

The United States will be hitting Iran (Whose Navy, Air Force, Radar, Anti Aircraft, and all other forms of Defense, together with most of its offensive capability, are GONE!), VERY HARD TONIGHT. At some point in the not too distant future, we will be taking Kharg Island, and other oil infrastructure points, and assume total control of their Oil and Gas Markets, much like we have with Venezuela, which is working out brilliantly for both Venezuela and the United States of America. Thank you for your attention to this matter! President DONALD J. TRUMP

Obviously, Iran does not appear to be backing down despite endless threats from Trump. I can't imagine the threat of expropriating Iran's oil and gas is…

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• Prior week Initial claims 225K (Largest since the first week of February)
• Prior week for continuing claims 1.777 million revised to 1.771M
• initial jobless claims 229K vs 219K estimate
• The 4-week moving average was 219,000, an increase of 4,250 from the previous week's unrevised average of 214,750
• Continuing claims 1.795M versus 1.780 million estimate. Prior week revised to 1.771M from 1.777M
• The 4-week moving average was 1,780,500, an increase of 4,750 from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised down by 1,500 from 1,777,250 to 1,775,750

For two weeks in a row, the initial claims data has come in higher than expectations employment a deterioration of labor conditions. However, the price remains within the…

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Headlines:

• Iran maintains that Strait of Hormuz is closed until further notice
• US-Iran talks are still on track according to a CNN diplomatic source
• US futures nudge up on the session, focus turns to SpaceX IPO
• ECB preview: forget the rate hike and focus on forward guidance
• ECB rate hike today will be a mere posturing play

Markets:

• WTI crude down 0.7% to $89.36
• European indices nudge higher on the session
• S&P 500 futures up 0.7%, Nasdaq futures up 1.1%
• USD, CHF lead, CAD lags on the day
• US 10-year yields down 1.9 bps to 4.52%
• Gold up 0.2% to $4,083
• Bitcoin up 2.2% to $63,129

It was a quiet but nervy session, even as markets are keeping in calmer and steadier mood for the most part.

US-Iran tensions continue to fill the air but at least for now, Trump is…

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The post Ex-Dividend 12/06/2026 first appeared on IC Your Trading Edge | Official Blog.

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From earlier today: Iran shuts Strait of Hormuz to all vessels, says ships will be targeted

And now they're repeating that the waterway will remain closed "until further notice".

Before today, there have been some vessels still crossing the strait. From official ship tracking data, these numbers were still less than 10 vessels per day. But if you include shadow fleets, they may be somewhere around 10 to 30 vessels per day crossing perhaps.

However, the actual figure is tough to ascertain and these do not really include bigger commercial vessels. At this stage, most ships who are willing enough have to bear the entire cost/risk when crossing with their AIS transponder turned off as maritime insurance will not cover any of this.

And even if the…

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Global Markets:

•  Asian Stock Markets : Nikkei up 0.09%, Shanghai Composite down 0.73% Hang Seng down 1.24% ASX down 0.21%
• Commodities : Gold at $4,093.85 (-0.96%) Silver at $63.640 (-1.67%), Brent Oil at $94.76 (1.78%), WTI Oil at $91.87 (2.04%)
• Rates : US 10-year yield at 4.552, UK 10-year yield at 4.9400, Germany 10-year yield at 3.0686

News & Data:

• (USD) Core CPI m/m 0.2 %  to 0.3%  expected

Markets Update:

U.S. stock futures declined on Wednesday night after the United States launched additional military strikes against Iran, raising concerns about escalating geopolitical tensions and pushing oil prices higher. Futures linked to the S&P 500 fell 0.4%, while Nasdaq 100 futures dropped 0.6%. Dow Jones Industrial…

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