February 4, 2023 15:09 FXStreet Market News
Shiba Inu, the second-largest meme coin in the crypto ecosystem, has witnessed a massive spike in its popularity among long-term holders. SHIB price bucked the market-wide downtrend and yielded 12% gains for holders since January 21.
Also read: Assessing the possibility of Bitcoin price crash to $20,000 after US NFP rises to 517,000
Shiba Inu, the largest meme coin competitor of Dogecoin has witnessed a massive spike in the volume of SHIB held by wallet addresses for over a year. As seen in the chart below, the number of wallet addresses holding SHIB for over a year has climbed consistently over the past year. Cruisers, or the category of holders holding SHIB for less than 12 months decreased.
As the Shiba Inu community awaits the launch of layer-2 scaling solution Shibarium, the accumulation of SHIB by long-term holders has picked up pace.
Shiba Inu addresses by time held
Shiba Inu was one of Friday’s biggest gainers, the Dogecoin-killer is trading close to its three-month high. Despite a decline in the global crypto market SHIB bucked the market-wide downtrend.
The Shiba-Inu-themed cryptocurrency continues to enjoy high correlation with Bitcoin. According to data from crypto intelligence tracker CoinGecko, SHIB is currently 0.97 correlated with Bitcoin. The meme coin’s correlation with BTC could negatively influence the meme coin’s uptrend unless bulls push the meme coin higher.
After a massive retracement in Bitcoin in a knee-jerk reaction by crypto traders, BTC is back to the $23,300 level. Shiba Inu is likely to sustain its uptrend if Bitcoin stays above the key psychological level of $23,000.
Full ArticleFebruary 4, 2023 12:26 Forexlive Latest News Market News
An interesting weekend item from Reuters about oil, but also about circumventing trade payments in the dominant USD – helping Russia to de-dollarise its economy.
Reuters cite four sources (unnamed) for the information. More detail at that link.
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The background top this is that banks and financial institutions are cautious about clearing payments, not wanting to unintentionally violate the sanctions imposed against Russia after its invasion of Ukraine. The Russian oil price cap has been imposed by the Group of Seven nations and Australia.
Indian (and Chinese) purchases of Russian oil may not be in violation of sanctions, but, exercising an abundance of caution, Indian refiners and dealers are concerned they may not be able to continue to settle trades in dollars. Hence thus of UAE dirhams (code is AED).
February 4, 2023 09:33 FXStreet Market News
AVAX price made significant improvement in the last month, but the recent break in the uptrend is beginning to worry investors. How this could impact Avalanche is the same as the rest of the cryptocurrencies since there is no significant immediate development noted in the ecosystem that could alter the altcoin’s trajectory.
AVAX price is currently teetering at the immediate resistance level, trading at $21.40 at the time of writing. The altcoin would be able to flip the $21.47 resistance level into a support level if it manages to close above the same in the next 24 hours.
Generally, this is considered a positive sign as, following it, the altcoin gets the room it needs to rally further. At the moment, aiming at $22.95 and flipping it into a support floor would be ideal.
This is because, in order for the cryptocurrency to chart new highs, Avalanche will need to breach the resistance level at $25.94 as well. Doing so would create a concrete support floor at $22.95 and also help AVAX chart a 21% rally.
FTT/USD 1-day chart
However, the condition of the market must be taken into consideration as well. By the looks of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is indicating that the cryptocurrency is scheduled for a cool down and not a rally. The presence around or above 70.0 is a sign of the cryptocurrency being overbought.
Thus if further cooldown takes precedence, the altcoin would remain consolidated between $21.47 and $19.78. But if the $19.78 support level is lost, the AVAX price would be in trouble as the only chance for it to bounce back is at $19.12 and $17.11.
The latter price level marks the critical support line. A daily close below this level would invalidate the bullish thesis, pushing the price to $15.96 and lower.
Full ArticleFebruary 4, 2023 09:02 FXStreet Market News
FTX saga added another eventful moment to its list after a company with no direct connection to FTX filed for bankruptcy. The repercussions that arose from the ongoing bankruptcy proceedings reached Emergent Fidelity through the one common link, Sam Bankman-Fried.
Sam Bankman-Fried owned Emergent Fidelity Technologies along with FTX. The company was also the responsible offshore entity that was home to the 55 million Robinhood shares worth more than $550 million.
However, the company went ahead and filed for bankruptcy on Friday despite the Department of Justice providing no clear answer about the ownership of the shares.
The Chapter 11 bankruptcy filing will allow the liquidators to work through the situation. Commenting on the same, a liquidator in a court statement said,
“ [The liquidators] duties are to the debtor’s creditors, whoever those creditors may be. Given the many parties claiming to be creditors or outright owners of the debtor’s assets in proceedings in the US, the JPLs believe that Chapter 11 protection is the only practical way to empower the debtor to defend itself, the assets, and its creditors’ interests in the US.”
Sam Bankman-Fried, despite being no longer in control of the company, owns nearly 90% of the entity, with FTX co-founder Gary Wang owning the remaining 10% of the company. Whether or not the Department of Justice returns the Robinhood shares cannot be ascertained, but for now, the company has only $20.7 million in cash.
FTT price, following its 26% dip in the last few days, has now consolidated, keeping itself stuck in a sideways momentum between $1.7 and $2.4. Trading at $2.0, the cryptocurrency managed to chart a green candle, rising by more than 7% in the last 24 hours.
FTT/USD 1-day chart
Any volatile change in the price action would be explained by some outside factor, as the rest of the market is also rather quiet at the moment. As for cryptocurrency traders, laying low would be the way to go.
Full ArticleFebruary 4, 2023 07:49 FXStreet Market News
The crypto market has seen a lull in activity after making gains earlier in the week. Despite the slowing trend, the outlook remains mildly bullish for Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Ripple.
Bitcoin price has been on a steady upward trajectory since the start of the year, and, despite some short-lived dips, the peer-to-peer digital currency continues to show promise.
Bitcoin price currently trades at $23,165, down 0.5% on the day. The trend remains bullish as the bears have yet to produce a settling price beneath the 8-day exponential moving average (EMA). The Binance exchange API suggests the bulls remain in control, with a strong candle from January 12 and an influx of $454,000 transactions.
The next bullish target remains near the mid-$24,000 zone, which could result in a 6% increase from the current Bitcoin price.
BTC/USDT 1-Day Chart
Traders should be on the lookout for the $23,000 zone, as a breach below this level could result in a sell-off toward previous resistance zones near $21,000. The Bitcoin price would result in an 8% decline under the bearish scenario.
Ethereum price reached a new high for the year at $1,714 earlier in the week, but profit-taking has since occurred. Despite some bearish influence, the overall trend remains intact.
Ethereum is currently trading at $1,666, hovering above the 8-day EMA and 21-day SMA, which signals a healthy uptrend. The lack of momentum calls for caution as bullish traders await more volatility.
The volume indicator is also in the bulls’ favor, but the market remains at a standstill as traders monitor key levels for potential sell-offs. The $1,610 zone remains crucial for Ethereum’s uptrend, and a failure to hold above this level could trigger a deeper decline.
The next bullish target for Ethereum remains near the mid-$1,800 liquidity zone, which could result in a 12% increase from the current Ethereum price.
ETH/USDT 1-Day Chart
Invalidation of the bullish forecast targeting $1,850 could occur from a breach below $1,610, resulting in further sell-offs and a potential decline of 18% from Ethereum’s current market value.
XRP price has seen limited movements this week, with back-and-forth price action taking place within the $0.40 zone. Despite this sluggishness, key indicators suggest a positive outlook for the digital remittance token. The 21-day simple moving average (SMA) continues to provide support. A Fibonacci retracement analysis of the winter rally shows that the current price represents a correction rather than a significant reversal.
XRP price is currently trading at $0.411. The recent pivot point at $0.381 on January 31 landed at the 38.2 retracement level, a common stopping ground for consolidations during strong uptrend rallies. So long as XRP stays above the halfway point near $0.361, the potential for a larger macro upswing lingers.
A conservative approach would be to target the $0.44 liquidity zone as the next pitstop for the uptrend, resulting in a 10% increase from XRP’s current market value.
XRP/USDT 1-Day Chart
Traders looking to join the trend could place an invalidation point below the recent swing low at 0.381. A breach of the barrier would likely Induce the 50% retracement into the 0.361 Zone, resulting in a 12% decrease from Ripple’s price today.
February 4, 2023 06:35 Forexlive Latest News Market News
The US jobs report was – as Fed’s Daly put it – a “wow” number. The Non Farm Payroll increased by a whopping 517K. The prior two months were revised higher by 71K. The combined total of 587K far outpaced the expectations of 185K. Wow is right.
The unemployment rate moved down to 3.4% (expected a rise to 3.6%), the lowest since 1969. The average hourly earnings increased by 0.3% and the YoY by 4.4% which were as expected. The work week increased to 34.7 hours from 34.3 hours expected. That is a big jump and indicative of solid employment.
The number was more the initial claims and the JOLTs data vs the anecdotal stories of layoffs.
It had some analysts saying, “it is so good, ignore it”, which I guess is another way of saying, “My model is right. The BLS is wrong”. However, the reality is, the jobs data continues to show month after month strength.
Looking at the industries:
Good producing jobs added 46K
IN the service jobs, they added 397K
Government even added a chunk with a gain of 78K
Later the ISM nonmanufacturing index came in much stronger than expected at 55.2 versus 50.4
Recession? What recession?
The US stocks initially took the news as more bearish as the Fed might need to hike more and keep the rates higher for a time period longer than the market’s expectations. However, when momentum slowed on the decline, the major indices moved back to the upside and erased all the declines for the day. That was also in the face of less than stellar earnings from Amazon, Alphabet and Apple after the close on Thursday. Intraday,
However, the climb was a tough one and buyers turned back to sellers. Word that Fed’s Daly would be speaking on FoxBusiness, may have been a catalyst to take some off the table. Recall, Daly was a bit more hawkish on the inflation prospects when she spoke on January 9th just before the blackout period. She was particularly insistent that the goods inflation was coming down, but service inflation ex housing was still elevated.
The stock buyers had the courage of 1000 matadors in the morning hours, but cowered a bit with the prospects of a Fed official coming out and saying “we are still data dependent”, inflation is still elevated, and “it was far to early” to call a peak (which is what she reminded the market).
Next week, when more Fed officials speak, it will be hard to say things are slowing down. In reality, the employment situation seems like it is doing the opposite – despite the job cuts announced, and that will continue to be a scare to the Fed who only has one job – to see inflation comes down.
In the debt market. yields moved higher and stayed elevated for the day:
Gold tumbled in reaction to the higher dollar. It is closing down near -$46 or -2.44% at $1865.63 after moving to within $41 of $2000 yesterday (the high reached $1959.74). Silver tumbled 4.67% or down -$1.09.
Crude oil focused on the higher dollar and it too fell even though stronger growth might lead to more demand down the road. Crude oil closed the week down -7.89%
The USD was the strongest of the majors rising by over 2% vs the NZD (+2.29%), AUD (2.16%) and was up 1.97% vs the JPY. The only currency the USD rose by less than 1% today was the CAD with a gain of only 0.69%.
USD was the strongest of the major currencies this week.
For the trading week, the USD rose vs all the major currencies:
It certainly was a Wow day (and a Wow week as well with 3 major central banks in play, and an earnings week highlighted by the likes of Meta, Apple, Alphabet, Amazon, Boeing, Merck, Honeywell, Starbucks).
Next week, the calendar of events will be a little less packed. Nevertheless, the anticipation of what Fed officials might say is intriguing and potentially market moving. ON Tuesday at 12 PM, Fed’s Powell will speak at the Economic Club of Washington. On Wednesday, NY Fed’s Williams will also speak (and I am sure others Fed officials will be asked to comment on policy post the jobs report).
The Bank of Australia is expected to hike rates by 25 basis points on Tuesday in Australia (Monday night at 10:30 PM ET).. Recall Australia CPI for Q4 came in at 1.9% vs 1.6% estimate when announced on January 24. Canada will release their employment report on Friday a month after reporting an oversized gain of 104K last month. The expectations are for 15K on Friday. The BOC raised rates by 25 bps on January 25th and said they were “conditionally pausing” as they assess the economic data going forward. That will be a key data point for their rate hike sabbatical.
Taking a look at the calendar of earnings, the major releases are now over. Next week there are a few names but the impacts should be minimal:
Monday:
Tuesday:
Wednesday
Thursday
February 4, 2023 05:26 FXStreet Market News
Cardano price continues to display bullish price action that could be misinterpreted by impatient traders. This thesis sews the short-term narrative with Cardanos’s recent 40% rally in an attempt to provide clarity for weeks to come.
Cardano price has been on an uptrend for the past few weeks. On February 2, the ADA token established a new high for February at $0.4125, but this high was met with resistance. While the resistance may be interpreted as a sign of exhaustion, Cardano’s larger outlook since December justifies the ongoing grapple. If the technicals are correct, ADA could embark on a much larger move.
Cardano price currently auctions at $0.403. One of the key indicators signaling that a potential move higher is on the horizon is the 1-2-1-2 ramping pattern within the current uptrend rally. This pattern occurs when the price makes higher lows and higher highs in a repetitive manner.
The stair-stepping price action indicates an asset’s open interest amongst algorithmic bots, day traders, and smart-money operatives. As the pattern progresses, the price movements can become more intense and volatile, creating an environment where a big move could occur.
Another factor to consider is the divergences on the Relative Strength Index (RSI). The RSI is a momentum indicator that compares the depth of recent gains to recent losses in an attempt to assess an asset’s overbought or oversold conditions. At the time of writing, Cardano shows bullish divergences within the 1-2-1-2 pattern after breaching over-bought conditions. This could be interpreted as a cool-down signal before Cardano makes its next leg up.
Based on the current ramping 1-2-1-2 pattern, Cardano could see further gains in the near future. The $0.45 zone represents a confluence of resistance, support, and untagged liquidity levels dating back to September 2022.
ADA/USDT 1-Day Chart
Invalidation of the bearish thesis could occur from a dip below the $0.36 support zone. If the breach were to happen, the Cardano price could decline toward the $0.30 level of support resulting in a 23% increase from ADA’s current market value.
February 4, 2023 05:26 FXStreet Market News
The USD/CHF is surging sharply during Friday’s North American session, as Wall Street is set to finish the last trading day of the week with losses. Therefore, the USD/CHF is trading at 0.9260, above its opening price by 1.42%.
On Friday, the USD/CHF rally broke two downslope resistance trendlines, which would pave the way for further losses. In addition, the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 0.9210 was reclaimed during the uptrend, exposing crucial resistance levels, which, once cleared it, could pave the way for further gains.
The USD/CHF first resistance will be the January 31 daily high at 0.9288. A breach of the latter and the 0.9307, the 50-day EMA is up for grabs., followed by January’s 12 high at 0.9360.
On the flip side, the USD/CHF first support would be the 20-day EMA at 0.9210. Bears reclaiming the latter would exacerbate a fall below 0.9200, followed by the February 3 daily low at 0.9112.
February 4, 2023 04:56 FXStreet Market News
USD/CAD climbs in the North American session after hitting a daily low of 1.3311 before Wall Street opened. Nevertheless, a strong US jobs report bolstered the US Dollar, the strongest currency in the FX space. At the time of writing, the USD/CAD exchanges hand at 1.3402.
Technically speaking, the USD/CAD is still neutral-to-upward biased, though it reclaimed some resistance levels after testing the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) a couple of days ago. On its way north, the USD/CAD pair conquered an upslope-support trendline that was broken on January 31, which means the uptrend could resume shortly.
Therefore, the USD/CAD next resistance would be the 50-day EMA at 1.3443. Break above, and the USD/CAD pair would rally to January 31 daily high at 1.3471, followed by 1.3500.
As an alternate scenario, the USD/CAD first support would be the 1.3400 mark. Once cleared, the USD/CAD might test the 20-day EMA at 1.3388, followed by a downslope trendline turned support at 1.3355-65, and then the 1.3300 psychological barrier.
February 4, 2023 04:40 Forexlive Latest News Market News
WTI crude oil futures settled at $73.39 today. That was down -$2.49 or -3.28%.
The high price reached $78.00 today. The low reached $73.13. The price traded to the lowest level going back to January 23. The low for the year reached $72.46 back on January 5th. The cycle low from December reached $70.08.
For the week, the price of crude oil tumbled by $8.06%. The close last week was up at $79.68.
Full ArticleFebruary 4, 2023 03:29 FXStreet Market News
Cosmos price (ATOM) is witnessing a bullish surge this week, breaking out of its recent consolidation and moving upwards by 10%. Technical indicators accompanying the rally show bulls are confidently poised. If market conditions persist, the Cosmos token could rally an additional 10% in the coming days.
ATOM price currently trades at $15.12. The uptrend in ATOM has been consistent since the end of December, with the price progressively rising and gaining back lost market value from November’s 40% decline.
The volume indicator shows an increase in market activity during the price rally, indicating strong support from market participants. Furthermore, ATOM is trading above both the 8-day exponential moving average and the 21-day simple moving average, compounding the positive outlook for the cryptocurrency.
With the current momentum and skeptical sentiment in the market, a conservative target for the Cosmos price rests 10% above the current market value, near the $16 price level. The $16 zone has unchallenged liquidity levels dating back to September 2022.
ATOM/USDT 1-day chart
To maintain the uptrend, ATOM needs to hold above the $13 level, which has acted as both support and resistance in the past.A daily candlestick close beneath this level would invalidate the bullish thesis. If the breach occurs Trader should prepare for a much steeper decline, likely to challenge unmitigated price levels within the recent Trend move. Under the bearish scenario, the $12 price level would likely act as the next level of support, resulting in a 20% decline from ATOM’s current price.
Full Article
February 4, 2023 03:26 FXStreet Market News
GBP/USD nosedives and extended its losses past the 50 and 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) on Friday after a surprisingly strong jobs report from the United States (US) that increased speculations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) could raise rates back above Wednesday’s 25 basis points mark (bps). At the time of writing, the GBP/USD is trading at 1.2060 after reaching a daily high of 1.2265.
Investors’ sentiment turned sour after January’s Nonfarm Payrolls report was released. Data showed that the economy added 517K new jobs against the 200K estimated; consequently, the Unemployment Rate tumbled from 3.5% to 3.4%. Additionally, December’s data was revised upward, which means the US Federal Reserve still has ways to go to curb stubbornly high inflation towards the 2% goal.
As the headline crossed the screens, the GBP/USD dived from around its daily highs at 1.2260s and collapsed 200 pips towards the 1.2060 area. In the meantime, the US Dollar Index, a measure of the greenback’s value against a basket of six currencies, rose to a new three-week high at 102.90, up 0.94%.
Later, the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) revealed that services industry activity climbed above expansionary territory, boosted by new orders, while prices paid moderated. The ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI rose by 55.2 last month, vs. 49.2 in December and above the 50.4 foreseen by analysts.
Earlier in the European session, the UK S&P Global/CIPS Services PMI had its worst month in two years, falling to 48.7, down from December’s 49.9, its lowest level since January 2021. Therefore, the S&P Composite PMI, combining manufacturing and services data, slumped to 48.5 in January from 49.0 last month.
Next week’s UK economic calendar will feature the Monetary Policy Report Hearings and the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) MoM and QoQ. Across the pond, the US economic docket will feature the US Federal Reserve speakers, namely Jerome Powell and John C. Williams from the New York Fed. Additionally, Initial Jobless Claims and the University of Michigan (UoM) Consumer Sentiment would shed some light regarding the status of the US economy.