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PBOC sets yuan reference rate at 6.8028

September 24, 2020 09:29   FXStreet   Market News  

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Thursday 24th September: Technical Outlook and Review

September 24, 2020 09:02   ICMarkets   Market News  

Key risk events today:

SNB Monetary Policy Assessment and Policy Rate; US Unemployment Claims; BoE Governor Bailey Speaks; Fed Chair Powell Testifies; US Treasury Secretary Mnuchin Speaks.

(Previous analysis as well as outside sources – italics).

EUR/USD:

The euro held the bulk of its losses against the greenback Wednesday, recording a fourth consecutive daily decline.

H4 relinquished the 1.17 handle in wake of feeble sub-50 Eurozone services PMIs and the DXY crossing above 94.00. Support at 1.1652 on the H4 timeframe is next on tap should further selling develop, closely joined by AB=CD structure (black arrows) at 1.1660 and 1.618 BC projection at 1.1649. Popping above 1.17, however, leads price back to H4 resistance at 1.1723, a previous Quasimodo support.

On the weekly timeframe, support at 1.1733, a prior Quasimodo resistance level, remains under attack. A notable close beyond the aforementioned level shines the spotlight on the 2019 yearly opening level at 1.1445. Interestingly, on the daily timeframe, dipping sub 1.1733 has seen the unit shake hands with channel resistance-turned support, extended from the high 1.1147.

Areas of consideration:

Short term, the H4 AB=CD correction around 1.1660 is likely to interest buyers, particularly as the area converges with support priced in at 1.1652. The H4 zone may draw in additional impetus from daily channel support, though there is also a chance upside could find resistance around 1.17 on the H4 if weekly sellers hold below 1.1733.

GBP/USD:

GBP/USD, technically speaking, trades at incredibly confluent support.

  • Out of the weekly timeframe, the pair is crossing swords with the 2019 yearly opening value at 1.2739 and intersecting trend line resistance-turned support, taken from the high 1.5930.
  • From the daily timeframe, trend line support, extended from the low 1.2075, and the 200-day SMA (orange – 1.2721) are in play.
  • H4 is seen rebounding from the 1.27 handle and converging 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at 1.2718, as well as a 127.2% Fibonacci extension point at 1.2695.

Areas of consideration:

The reaction from 1.27 (and Fibonacci confluence), along with current support on the higher timeframes, is likely appealing, enough to perhaps draw in buyers. The next upside target rests around the 1.28 handle on the H4.

AUD/USD:

Down more than 1% Wednesday, AUD/USD, weighed amid risk aversion, overthrew August’s opening value at 0.7128 on the H4 Wednesday, potentially clearing space to support at 0.7042 (a prior Quasimodo resistance) and a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at 0.7038. Note a break here exposes the key figure 0.70.

On the weekly timeframe, support at 0.7147 remains under pressure, with price targeting the 2020 and 2019 yearly opening values at 0.7016 and 0.7042, respectively. The daily timeframe, thanks to recent selling, has support at 0.7049 in sight.

Areas of consideration:

As of current price, sellers appear to have the upper hand until crossing paths with the 0.7050ish range. Should we reach this far south, traders will likely look to offload shorts and consider long positions, in light of support confluence: H4 support at 0.7042 (along with 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at 0.7038) converges with the 2019 yearly opening value to the pip (weekly timeframe), and is positioned nearby daily support at 0.7049.

USD/JPY:

USD/JPY extended to a third consecutive daily gain Wednesday, strengthened on the back of the US dollar index making headway north of 94.00. Retesting 105 on the H4, the pair, as you can see, latched onto fresh bids above Quasimodo resistance at 105.14 and resistance plotted at 105.24. This, from a technical standpoint, has perhaps cleared the river north until August’s opening value at 105.75 and September’s opening value at 105.88.

From the higher timeframes, we can see the unit regained footing above weekly support at 104.70.

Areas of consideration:

For those who read Wednesday’s technical briefing you may recall the following (italics):

In order to climb above weekly support at 104.70 and make any progress, H4 resistances at 105, 105.14 and 105.24 must be cleared. Overthrowing H4 resistance at 105.24, therefore, may trigger bullish themes to take the currency pair up to at least August’s opening value at 105.75, with a break throwing September’s opening level at 105.88 into the mix.

Unfortunately, the H4 or H1 candles failed to retest 105.24 as support before rallying to fresh weekly peaks. Should this occur today, knowing where we’re coming from on the higher timeframes and the room seen to advance on the H4 to 105.75, buyers are likely to make an appearance.

USD/CAD:

The DXY crossing above 94.00 and closing higher for a fourth consecutive session, along with WTI concluding sharply off session peaks at $40.70 a barrel, led USD/CAD higher Wednesday.

H4, after retesting the 1.33 handle, caught fresh bids and reached peaks at 1.3381. Further buying from here is likely to tag the 1.34 handle/August’s opening level, plotted close by channel resistance, taken from the high 1.3257.

From the higher timeframes, research notes the following:

Following a stronger-than-expected recovery off support at 1.3059, pinned just north of the 2020 yearly opening value at 1.2975 on the weekly timeframe, weekly price has taken on trend line support-turned resistance, taken from the low 1.2061. Continued upside highlights the 2017 yearly opening value at 1.3434 as possible resistance.

A closer reading of price action on the daily timeframe reveals resistance at 1.3225 gave way in recent trading. In terms of fresh resistance, we do not see much to hang our hat on until crossing swords with trend line resistance, etched from the high 1.4265, which happens to align closely with the 200-day SMA (orange – 1.3521). Also in close view is trend line support-turned resistance, taken from the low 1.2957. However, before reaching the said daily levels, we must contend with weekly resistance around 1.3434.

Areas of consideration:

For those who read Wednesday’s technical briefing you may recall the following (italics):

Although buyers appear to lack passion off 1.33 at the moment, the retest of this level is notable knowing we have room for buyers to stretch their legs on the higher timeframes to at least weekly resistance placed at 1.3434 (the 2017 yearly opening level).

Conservative traders are likely to seek additional confirmation, perhaps in the form of a H4 bullish candlestick pattern, before pulling the trigger, targeting the aforementioned H4 resistances.

Traders currently long are likely honing in on 1.34, followed by weekly resistance (the 2017 yearly opening value) at 1.3434. Here sellers could make a show, though should follow-through buying develop, technical eyes will likely be on the daily trend line resistance (1.4265).

USD/CHF:

0.92 served well as support Wednesday, welcoming a retest mid-way through the London session. H4 rebounded strongly from the round number and extended gains heading into US trading, positioning weekly resistance at 0.9255 within striking distance, which happens to merge closely with a H4 AB=CD (red arrows) completion at 0.9249 and a 127.2% Fibonacci extension point at 0.9257.

Movement on the weekly timeframe reveals buyers staged an impressive recovery off support at 0.9014, potentially gleaning additional impetus from ABCD support at 0.9051 (black arrows), and is now approaching resistance mentioned above at 0.9255 (a previous Quasimodo support level).

Form the daily timeframe, the beginning of September observed the upper border of a falling wedge pattern (drawn from the high 0.9241 and a low of 0.9056) give way, consequently unlocking a bullish reversal signal. Although resistance at 0.9187 initially put a lid on gains, buyers regained consciousness after retesting the falling wedge and recently engulfed the aforementioned resistance level. Weekly resistance at 0.9255 is next on tap, followed by the daily falling wedge take-profit target (blue arrows) at 0.9297.

Areas of consideration:

For those who read Wednesday’s technical briefing you may recall the following (italics):

A decisive H4 close above 0.92 today could call for further buying (conservative traders will likely want to see a retest of the round number form before committing), targeting weekly resistance at 0.9255, which merges closely with a H4 AB=CD (red arrows) pattern at 0.9249 and 127.2% Fibonacci extension point at 0.9257.

With H4 approaching AB=CD resistance around 0.9249 and weekly price closing in on resistance from 0.9255, buyers are likely to begin liquidating longs with fresh sellers also potentially making an appearance.

Dow Jones Industrial Average:

US equity benchmarks tumbled Wednesday amid rising COVID-19 cases. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 525.05 points, or 1.92%; the S&P 500 declined 78.65 points, or 2.37% and the Nasdaq traded lower by 330.65 points, or 3.02%.

Technically, from the weekly timeframe, the unit is seen fast approaching demand (green) at 25916-26523, an area active buyers may try and defend. This follows a recent attempt to overrun the 2020 yearly opening value at 28595 (sited just under Quasimodo resistance at 29409).

Trading on the daily timeframe recently elbowed through an ascending wedge, taken from the low 22803, and support from 27640 (now a serving resistance). This, alongside Wednesday’s bearish outside reversal candle, potentially sets the stage for a move to the 200-day SMA (orange – 26275), followed by a possible run to support priced in at 24934.

H4 resistance at 27455 side-lined hopes of additional recovery gains on Wednesday, as price aggressively turned to lower levels in recent hours, engulfing Monday’s low at 26708 and shining the spotlight on a 127.2% Fibonacci extension point at 26628, followed by August’s opening value at 26492. Follow-through downside through the aforementioned levels points to an approach towards Quasimodo support at 26300.

Areas of consideration:

The weekly and daily timeframes suggest additional losses.

While August’s opening value at 26492 could encourage buying, given the level residing within weekly demand at 25916-26523, H4 Quasimodo support at 26300 is equally likely to entice buyers due to the 200-day SMA merging closely with the level (and also positioned within the aforementioned weekly demand).

XAU/USD (GOLD):

Weekly support at $1,882 recently made its way back into the spotlight and is currently under pressure, with gold trading lower by nearly 5% on the week so far. Should sellers strengthen their grip, channel resistance-turned support, etched from the high $1,703, might enter view.

Support from $1,911 was recently engulfed (now serving as resistance) on the daily timeframe, following last week’s action gripping trend line support-turned resistance, taken from the low $1,455. Consequently, after pencilling in a third consecutive daily loss, this shifts focus to support at $1,841.

On the H4 timeframe, we can see resistance at $1,916 maintained its position (a previous Quasimodo support) in recent trade. Following Tuesday’s bearish outside candle, Wednesday explored lower levels and took over support at $1,871 (now an acting resistance), directing the technical radar to support at $1,835.

Areas of consideration:

According to technical structure, price indicates sellers still have the advantage until connecting with daily support at $1,841, closely shadowed by H4 support at $1,835 and then the weekly channel support (around $1,825ish).

Therefore, between $1,825/$1,841, this area represents a clear take-profit target for current shorts and, at the same time, provides a platform for buyers to consider.

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USD/JPY Price Analysis: This could be the bulls’s last dance in the 105, eyes on 103.50s

September 24, 2020 09:02   FXStreet   Market News  

  • USD/JPY is stalling at market structure are bears looking for an opportunity to the downside.
  • Bulls might have some upside to go yet, but the air will be getting thinner at those heights. 

USD/JPY is drawing in attention considering the level it has reached in recent trade since the break of the 105 figure.

As per yesterday’s analysis, USD/JPY has run to the 105.40/50s target:

Current market

The question is, where now?

According to the market structure, there is resistance at this juncture which could give rise to a test of support in the lower end of the 105 area:

On the other hand, this could be the last dance for the bulls for some time.

Failures here will open the prospect of a continuation of the deterioration of the pair towards a 103.50 target:

DXY has run too far too soon, maybe?

However, while this may fit the US election’s hedge narrative, from a technical standpoint, there are upside arguments for the dollar long term:

For the meantime, however, there is room for a correction to that 61.8% Fib retracement which would give rise to some downside in USD/JPY.

A 5-wave analysis offers some give at this juncture to a test of 93.59 before 95.50 can be achieved in the DXY. 

Full Article

US election risk may push gold to record high before the year-end – Citigroup

September 24, 2020 09:02   FXStreet   Market News  

Gold could hit a record high above $2,075 before the end of 2020 on the back of uncertainty surrounding the US elections, analysts at Citigroup Inc. warned on Wednesday, according to Bloomberg. 

Key points

The precious metals market is underpricing prospects of the US election outcome delay. 

The bank’s forecast implies a surge of more than $200 for bullion futures from Wednesday’s price of $1,900.

The election “could be an extraordinary catalyst for gold flat price and volatility skew late in the fourth quarter, even though historically there is no clear pattern for gold trading or price volatility into and after the US elections. 

The yellow metal rallied from $1,450 to $2,075 in 4-1/2 months to Aug. 7, as unprecedented liquidity injections by major central banks coupled with fears of prolonged coronavirus-led economic downturn strengthened the demand for scarce safe-haven assets. 

At press time, gold is trading near $1,860 per ounce. 

Full Article

What to watch for gold to come bouncing back

September 24, 2020 08:40   Forexlive Latest News   Market News  


HIGH RISK WARNING: Foreign exchange trading carries a high level of risk that may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage creates additional risk and loss exposure. Before you decide to trade foreign exchange, carefully consider your investment objectives, experience level, and risk tolerance. You could lose some or all of your initial investment; do not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. Educate yourself on the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial or tax advisor if you have any questions.


ADVISORY WARNING: FOREXLIVE™ provides references and links to selected blogs and other sources of economic and market information as an educational service to its clients and prospects and does not endorse the opinions or recommendations of the blogs or other sources of information. Clients and prospects are advised to carefully consider the opinions and analysis offered in the blogs or other information sources in the context of the client or prospect’s individual analysis and decision making. None of the blogs or other sources of information is to be considered as constituting a track record. Past performance is no guarantee of future results and FOREXLIVE™ specifically advises clients and prospects to carefully review all claims and representations made by advisors, bloggers, money managers and system vendors before investing any funds or opening an account with any Forex dealer. Any news, opinions, research, data, or other information contained within this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment or trading advice. FOREXLIVE™ expressly disclaims any liability for any lost principal or profits without limitation which may arise directly or indirectly from the use of or reliance on such information. As with all such advisory services, past results are never a guarantee of future results.

Full Article

EUR/USD Price Analysis: 23.6% Fib retracement support breached

September 24, 2020 08:40   FXStreet   Market News  

  • EUR/USD closed Wednesday below 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the March to September rally. 
  • The daily chart suggests scope for a decline to 1.15. 

EUR/USD closed Wednesday at 1.1670, breaching the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the uptrend from the March low of 1.0623 to the Sept. 1 high of 1.2011. That Fibonacci level of 1.1687 may now act as resistance. 

The pair is currently trading at 1.1670 amid signs of bullish divergence of the hourly chart relative strength index. As such, the pair may challenge resistance levels at 1.1687 to 1.17, before suffering a deeper drop, as suggested by the head-and-shoulders breakdown seen on the daily chart. 

The 14-day RSI, too, is reporting a bearish bias with a below-50 print. 

Support levels are seen at 1.1495 (March 9 high) and 1.1486 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement). 

A close above the head-and-shoulders neckline level of 1.1770 is needed to invalidate the bearish outlook

Daily chart

Trend: Bearish

Technical levels

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BoJ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes: Solvency problems for some firms and financial system stability

September 24, 2020 08:29   FXStreet   Market News  

The Bank of Japan minutes revealed that a few members said prolonged damage to economy from pandemic could lead to solvency problems for some firms, affect financial system stability.

 Members agreed must ease without hesitation if needed, with eye on impact of pandemic on economy.

 One member said must examine whether current policy framework was sufficient, act promptly if action was needed.

 One member said close, appropriate coordination between fiscal, monetary policies crucial.

 Members agreed there was risk financial intermediation could stagnate if financial institutions’ profits remain under prolonged strain.

 Members agreed there was chance financial system vulnerability might heighten.

One member said BoJ must look more deeply into how monetary policy could be shaped in ‘with-corona’ world.

One member said must scrutinise how monetary policy affects business management from medium-term perspective.

 Govt representative said hope boj keeps in close contact with govt in achieving early economic recovery via appropriate monetary policy.

A few members said must retain cautious view on pace of overseas economic recovery.

A few members said must be on alert to risk Japan, other countries, might see a renewed resurgence in coronavirus infections.

One member said a resurgence in infections would delay timing of economic recovery.

One member said impact of pandemic, if prolonged, could lead to job losses, hurt household income and spending.

A few members said prolonged damage to economy from pandemic could lead to solvency problems for some firms, affect financial system stability.

The Bank of Japan publishes a study of economic movements in Japan after the actual meeting.

These meetings are held to review economic developments inside and outside of Japan and indicate a sign of new fiscal policy.

Any changes in this report tend to affect the JPY volatility. Generally speaking, if the BoJ minutes show a hawkish outlook, that is seen as positive (or bullish) for the JPY, while a dovish outlook is seen as negative (or bearish).

Market implications

There is a growing sentiment of insolvency problems in the market.

The bank indexes are bleeding to extraordinarily low levels, such as the KRB.

More here: USD/JPY testing bear’s commitments at a critical resistance

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GBP/CAD Price Analysis: Choppy conditions at counter trendline resistance

September 24, 2020 08:17   FXStreet   Market News  

  • GBP/CAD is being rejected at monthly resistance which opens the case for the downside. 
  • Bears can be enthused by the restest at the countertrendline resistance but 4HR price action is dubious.

GBP/CAD has failed to break out of from the reverse heand and shoulders on the monthly chart and is rejected at a strong level of supply. 

The price is making signs for a breakout to the downside on both the weekly and daily chart but there is less conviction on the lower time frame. 

The following is s topdown analysis that illustrates the downside bias.

Monthly chart

The price failed to break the resistance once again which is invakudting the reverse head and shoulders. 

Weekly chart

The weekly chart shows that there are prospects of a move above the trendline to the prior structure.

Weekly chart 38.2% Fib confluence

However, there are many confluence of the the 28.2%, the counter trendline and prior nearterm structure. 

Daily chart

The daily chart has already offered a number of confirmations that the counter trendline and confluence resistance structure is solid on the restest in what appears to the formation of wave-3.

4HR chart reverse head and shoulders risk

The 4-hour chart is, however, seeing the price test back above the 21 moving average.

The risk here is a formation of the reverse head and shoulders and a break to the upside above structure in choppy conditions. 

The price action fro here should be monitored for a test of the recent lows. A break and restest could offer prospects of a bearish setup with a lower target. 

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US stock index futures are getting smashed still on Globex

September 24, 2020 07:33   Forexlive Latest News   Market News  


HIGH RISK WARNING: Foreign exchange trading carries a high level of risk that may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage creates additional risk and loss exposure. Before you decide to trade foreign exchange, carefully consider your investment objectives, experience level, and risk tolerance. You could lose some or all of your initial investment; do not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. Educate yourself on the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial or tax advisor if you have any questions.


ADVISORY WARNING: FOREXLIVE™ provides references and links to selected blogs and other sources of economic and market information as an educational service to its clients and prospects and does not endorse the opinions or recommendations of the blogs or other sources of information. Clients and prospects are advised to carefully consider the opinions and analysis offered in the blogs or other information sources in the context of the client or prospect’s individual analysis and decision making. None of the blogs or other sources of information is to be considered as constituting a track record. Past performance is no guarantee of future results and FOREXLIVE™ specifically advises clients and prospects to carefully review all claims and representations made by advisors, bloggers, money managers and system vendors before investing any funds or opening an account with any Forex dealer. Any news, opinions, research, data, or other information contained within this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment or trading advice. FOREXLIVE™ expressly disclaims any liability for any lost principal or profits without limitation which may arise directly or indirectly from the use of or reliance on such information. As with all such advisory services, past results are never a guarantee of future results.

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Pre-election volatility may be nothing compared to after it. Trump refuses to commit to peaceful power transfer.

September 24, 2020 07:21   Forexlive Latest News   Market News  

Trump was asked directly: “Will you commit to a peaceful transfer of power after the election?”

Trump’s response was: “We’re gonna have to see what happens.”

The exchange occurred at a White House event.

Trump is, of course, full of crap, so I wonder how much store to place in this. But,a heads up, the social and financial market volatility we are seeing may very well continue after the election. 

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South Korea vice fin min warns stock market volatility may expand further

September 24, 2020 07:09   Forexlive Latest News   Market News  


HIGH RISK WARNING: Foreign exchange trading carries a high level of risk that may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage creates additional risk and loss exposure. Before you decide to trade foreign exchange, carefully consider your investment objectives, experience level, and risk tolerance. You could lose some or all of your initial investment; do not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. Educate yourself on the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial or tax advisor if you have any questions.


ADVISORY WARNING: FOREXLIVE™ provides references and links to selected blogs and other sources of economic and market information as an educational service to its clients and prospects and does not endorse the opinions or recommendations of the blogs or other sources of information. Clients and prospects are advised to carefully consider the opinions and analysis offered in the blogs or other information sources in the context of the client or prospect’s individual analysis and decision making. None of the blogs or other sources of information is to be considered as constituting a track record. Past performance is no guarantee of future results and FOREXLIVE™ specifically advises clients and prospects to carefully review all claims and representations made by advisors, bloggers, money managers and system vendors before investing any funds or opening an account with any Forex dealer. Any news, opinions, research, data, or other information contained within this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment or trading advice. FOREXLIVE™ expressly disclaims any liability for any lost principal or profits without limitation which may arise directly or indirectly from the use of or reliance on such information. As with all such advisory services, past results are never a guarantee of future results.

Full Article

Gold Price Analysis: XAU/USD’s potential short-term reprieve if USD pulls back

September 24, 2020 07:02   FXStreet   Market News  

  • Gold is on the verge of a correction to give rise to further bearish prospects.
  • Bears will be seeking resistance to hold in a weekly bearish close.

Gold prices have deteriorated in the US dollar’s relentless comeback as investors move away from stocks

The price of the dollar is correlated to gold, so it stands to reason that if the dollar is about to tail off its gains, then gold should find reprieve.

The following is a top-down analysis of where the price is anticipated to travel between resistance and support structures, offering further opportunities to the downside.

The opportunities will arise if the US dollar breaks higher on the monthly and daily charts as illustrated below.

Monthly chart

The monthly chart shows that the price has seen a heavy rejection fro the highest levels on record.

The move has snapped four straight months of gains.

Weekly chart

The weekly chart is offering prospects of some further room to the downside.

Daily chart

However, the daily chart is meeting a prior low and a 78.6% Fibonacci retracement. 

If the US dollar now stalls, then this could be as about as far as gold will travel for the time being before an upside correction.

Bears will be looking for a weekly close below the resistance structure to give rise to further downside opportunities. 

As it stands, the DXY could be about to correct the recent bullish leg and be set on the completion of a bullish 5-wave pattern:

Monthly bullish DXY outlook

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