Market News

There are a couple of expiries to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold below.

The first ones are for EUR/USD layered between the 1.1415 through to 1.1475 levels. The expiries don't tie much to any technical significance but could still act on their own volition in keeping price action more in check in the session ahead.

For starters, the ones at 1.1475 are keeping around the recent resistance region of 1.1470-80 in July trading. So, the expiries there could act as an added ceiling layer for buyers to chew through to really gather more upside momentum. Tying together with that, the ones at 1.1450 might offer some interest in keeping price action more tightly bound in the session ahead. That unless we get any major surprises from…

The Nasdaq-100 is near record highs, but these stocks remain trapped in deep bear markets

The Nasdaq-100 may be trading close to record territory, but the strength of the headline index tells only part of the story. Several well-known growth stocks remain more than 50% below their all-time highs, creating a striking divide between the index’s biggest winners and its most severely damaged constituents.

This divergence matters for investors. A stock that has fallen 50%, 70% or even 90% is not automatically cheap. Some declines reflect a temporary business cycle, while others reveal deteriorating margins, fading competitive advantages or a permanently lower valuation.

Key takeaway: The most interesting opportunity may not be finding the stock…

• Q2 preliminary GDP +0.2% vs +0.2% q/q expected
• Prior (Q1) -0.1%
• Q2 preliminary GDP +0.7% vs +0.8% y/y expeced
• Prior (Q1) +0.9%

The French economy is estimated to have rebounded in Q2, helped mostly by a modest recovery in domestic demand conditions. Overall, domestic demand (excluding inventories) contributed +0.1% to GDP growth, after -0.2% in Q1 2026. This comes as household consumption picked up in Q2 (+0.2%) after the slump in Q1 (-0.3%).

Meanwhile, the contribution of foreign trade to growth was also positive (+0.6%) compared to the previous quarter (-0.8%) but offset by the negative contribution from changes in inventories (-0.6%) compared to the previous quarter (+0.9%).

Overall, it still points to a more sluggish momentum in the French…

• Q2 preliminary GDP +% vs +0.2% q/q expected
• Prior (Q1) -0.1%
• Q2 preliminary GDP +% s +0.8% y/y expeced
• Prior (Q1) +0.9%

More to come..

This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

Fed chair Warsh has definitely stirred the pot with his latest forward guidance approach, or should I say lack thereof, as he wants markets to do the job on tightening instead.

I would argue that the press conference damaged his credibility more so than it looks like he laid down a marker, but we'll have to see if markets agree to that. So far, the bond market is definitely hinting that if the Fed chair wants to play this game of poker, then we will be calling his bluff.

JP Morgan is one to offer a quick reaction to the FOMC meeting yesterday. The firm had previously only penciled in the next rate hike by the Fed in the second half of 2027. But after Warsh's communique, they now expect a rate hike to follow in December this year instead.…

Bitcoin analysis today after the Fed: BTC futures trade near a two-way decision zone

Bitcoin futures experienced a volatile reaction following the Federal Reserve decision, but the initial price swings did not produce a lasting directional breakout.

The July Bitcoin futures contract first surged from below $64,000 to approximately $64,720, before reversing sharply toward $63,335. Buyers subsequently repaired much of that decline, although the recovery stalled near $64,405.

At the time of this analysis, Bitcoin futures are trading near $64,075, close to today's developing VWAP. That leaves BTC in a difficult location for intraday traders, where price can still move convincingly in either direction.

This is a pure tradeCompass article without a…

It is going to be a packed calendar in European morning trade today, with a mix of economic and inflation numbers to run through. The latter will continue to be the more pertinent one to watch but with the ECB already pausing this month, there shouldn't be too much immediate impact. That unless we see some real surprise to the data.

As things stand, traders are pricing in ~64% odds of the ECB acting next in September with ~38 bps of rate hikes priced in by year-end. So, therein lies the risks of which the balance of probabilities will flow based on what the data will offer up later today.

Here's a quick rundown of the agenda in the session ahead:

• 0530 GMT: France Q2 preliminary GDP data
• 0700 GMT: Spain Q2 preliminary GDP data
• 0700 GMT: Spain…

It's that time of the month again with only two days left in July trading now. As always, the month-end flows may already be slowly playing out but there could still be some added volatility especially when we get to the London fix before all is said and done. And that is what traders have to be prepared for just in case.

Alongside the mix of volatility from other key events this week, it makes for a very messy period in digesting price movements. So if the risk levels are not to your liking, you might be better off waiting until next week for the dust to settle and for more clarity. Sometimes the best trade is to protect your capital and not take unnecessary risks that don't suit your risk profile/tolerance.

Anyway, back to what to expect…

Ten year Treasury yields are up 7 bps so far in Asia and 30s are up 9 bps.  The latter just hit a fresh cycle high at 5.24%. That's the highest since 2007 and it looks like a major break could be taking place.

We have been testing the 5.20% level since October 2023 when inflation was running at 9%. Even at that time, the market believed the Fed would get it back down to 2%. Now, despite all the tough talk, Warsh didn't act.

At the same time he correctly diagnosed that the economy is strong and the employment market is stable. He also highlighted AI capex, which the Mag7 this week showed no signs of throttling. In contast, the capex numbers have moved up again.

So what does it mean? 

For starters, the US 30-year is probably the second…

US Central Command released a statement:

At 10 p.m. ET on July 29, U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) forces successfully completed a heavy wave of strikes against Iran in response to yesterday's attempted missile attacks on U.S. forces.CENTCOM assets struck dozens of Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) targets in Iran, including military command centers, missile and drone facilities, coastal surveillance and defense sites, and maritime capabilities. The strikes aimed to further diminish threats posed by Iran and its proxies to American forces, commercial shipping, and neighboring Gulf countries.On July 28, IRGC forces launched multiple ballistic missiles from Iran in an attempted surprise attack on U.S. forces based in the Middle East.…

There are too many wars right now and too many fronts. But with strikes in Iraq and Saudi Arabia this week, it's getting worse by the day.

At the moment, there are air raid sires in Polish cities near the Ukranian border and Russia launches strikes against the far west of Ukraine. It's been weeks since Russia targeted this far into Ukraine.

Polish officials write:

Attention. Due to the activity of the Russian Federation's long-range aviation, which is carrying out strikes on the territory of Ukraine, military aviation operations have commenced in Polish airspace... ghter aircraft and an early warning aircraft have begun operations, while ground-based air defense systems and radar reconnaissance systems have reached a state of readiness.

To be…

The US military confirms that it has struck targets inside Iran. For now, WTI is down $1 and that might reflect initial reports that the attack wasn't some kind of overwhelming escalation. 

At some point though, the oil needs to flow.

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.