Articles

• US stocks close the week with gains on the day. S&P and Nasdaq lower for the week.
• Next week will be the Grand Daddy of the earning calendar this quarter
• Baker Hughes oil rig count +5 to 482.
• ECBs Schnabel:Services inflation showing last mile in inflation fight especially difficult
• European shares bounce back. Mixed performance for the week.
• Initial Atlanta Fed GDPNow growth tracker comes in at 2.8%
• University of Michigan consumer sentiment for July 66.4 versus 66.0 estimate (and prelim)
• Kickstart the FX trading day for July 26 w/a technical look at the EURUSD, USDJPY & GBPUSD
• US Core PCE YoY for June 2.6% versus 2.5% estimate
• The AUD is the strongest and the JPY is the weakest as the NA session begins.
• ForexLive European FX news wrap: A bit of respite ahead of the US PCE report

For most of the week, the flow of funds sent the JPY and CHF higher on flight to safety flows. The AUD (and NZD) lower as risk off sentiment dominated on the back of slowdown in China, lower commodities and stocks moving lower.

Today saw a reversal of some of those trends.

For the day, the AUDSD is the strongest of the majors. The CHF is ending as the weakest. The JPY is ending the day mixed. The USD which was mixed for a lot of the week is ending the week with the same fortunes today.

Stocks moved higher in both Europe and the US today.

The major European indices bounced back in trading today with all the indices higher.

• German DAX, +0.68%
• France CAC +1.22%
• UK FTSE 100 +1.21%
• Spain’s Ibex +0.18%
• Italy’s FTSE MIB +0.12%

For the trading week, most of the indices were higher except Italy’s FTSE MIB

• German DAX +1.38%
• France CAC, -0.22%
• UK FTSE 100, +1.59%
• Spain’s Ibex, +0.71%
• Italy’s FTSE MIB, -1.09%

The final numbers in the US closed the day with gains across the board.

• Dow industrial average rose 654.27 points or 1.64% at 40,589.35.
• S&P index rose 59.86 points or 1.11% at 5459.09
• NASDAQ index rose 176.16 points or 1.03% at 17357.88
• The small-cap Russell 2000 rose to 37.08 points or 1.67% at 2260.06.

For the trading week, the results were mixed with the Dow up for the 4th consecutive week. The Russell 2000 was up for the 3rd week.. The S&P and the Nasdaq were down for the 2nd consecutive week. Next week will be influenced by a slew of earnings highlighted by Microsoft, Apple, Amazon and Amazon amongst other large cap titans in various industries.

US yields are closing the day near lows across the yield curve:

• 2 year yield 4.389%, -5.4 basis points
• 5-year yield 4.0767%, -6.8 basis points
• 10-year yield 4.195%, -6.0 basis points
• 30-year yield 4.456%, -4.4 basis points

For the trading week:

• 2-year yield -13 basis points
• 5-year yield, -9.4 basis points
• 10-year yield, -4.7 basis points
• 30-year yield, unchanged.

The 2-10 year rose by 8.3 basis points for the week to -19.4 basis pointe. The 2-30 year spread is ending positive by 6.7 basis points.

Fundamentally today, the PCE data was consistent with the PCE data from the GDP data yesterday.

The core PCE moved up by 0.188% (rounded to 0.2%. The YoY rose by 2.6%. The was unchanged from last month. The headline PCE rose of 0.1% (revised higher) with the YoY dipping to 2.5% from 2.6%.

The Michigan consumer survey data was mixed with the sentiment moving higher vs the preliminary, the current conditions lower and the expectations higher . Inflation results were more or less as expected and close to last months levels.

IN addition to the parade of earnings, the Fed, the Bank of England and the Bank of Japan will announce interest rate decision. The US jobs report will be released on Friday. Australia and EU CPI will be released. China PMI will be released as well.

Thank you for the support.this week. Wishing you all a great weekend (PS enjoy the Olympics).

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

The US stocks have closed the week with gains on the day.

The S&P and the Nasdaq remain lower on the week. The Dow and the small-cap Russell 2000 closed higher with the Russell 2000 the best performer on the rotation on hopes lower rates would help those companies going forward.

The final numbers are showing:

• Dow industrial average rose 654.27 points or 1.64% at 40,589.35.
• S&P index rose 59.86 points or 1.11% at 5459.09
• NASDAQ index rose 176.16 points or 1.03%17357.88

The small-cap Russell 2000 rose to 37.08 points or 1.67% at 2260.06.

For the trading week:

• Dow Industrial Average average rose 0.75%.The Dow closed higher for the fourth consecutive week
• S&P index fell -0.83%. The S&P index fell for the second consecutive week.
• NASDAQ index-2.08%. The NASDAQ index fell for the second consecutive week.
• Russell 2000 rose 3.466% and for the third consecutive week.

Next week is a huge week with Amazon, Apple, Meta Platforms, and Microsoft all scheduled to release earnings.

Today:

• Meta Platforms +2.75%
• Amazon, +1.47%
• Alphabet -0.17%
• Apple +0.22%
• Microsoft +1.64%
• Tesla -0.20%
• Nvidia +0.71%

For a list of the other companies scheduled to release can be found HERE. Of course the Fed interest rate decision on Wednesday will also be a key event. The week will also end with the US jobs report on Friday (177K estimate with the unemployment rate at 4.1%).

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Next week will be a key earnings release week. 4 of 7 of the Magnificent 7 will be released with Microsoft, Meta Platforms, Apple and Amazon all scheduled to report.

As if that wasn’t enough, McDonald’s, Pfizer, Merck, AMD, Starbucks, Boeing, Qualcomm, Intel, Exxon Mobil and Chevron will also report.

Monday

Before Open:

• McDonald’s
• Phillips

After Close:

• Tilray

Tuesday

Before Open:

• SoFi
• Pfizer
• PayPal
• BP
• P&G
• Corning
• Merck

After Close:

• AMD
• Microsoft
• Starbucks
• Pinterest

Wednesday

Before Open:

• Boeing
• Kraft Heinz
• Altria

After Close:

• Meta (Facebook)
• Qualcomm
• Carvana
• Lam Research
• Western Digital

Thursday

Before Open:

• Moderna
• ConocoPhillips
• Wayfair
• SiriusXM

After Close:

• Amazon
• Apple
• Intel
• Coinbase
• DraftKings

Friday

Before Open:

• ExxonMobil
• Chevron
• Frontier Communications

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

The major European indices have bounced back in trading today with all the indices higher. A snapshot of the closing levels shows:

• German DAX, +0.68%
• France CAC +1.22%
• UK FTSE 100 +1.21%
• Spain’s Ibex +0.18%
• Italy’s FTSE MIB +0.12%

For the trading week, most of the indices were higher with the exception of Italy’s FTSE MIB

• German DAX +1.38%
• France CAC, -0.22%
• UK FTSE 100, +1.59%
• Spain’s Ibex, +0.71%
• Italy’s FTSE MIB, -1.09%

In the European debt market yields move lower today, Looking at the benchmark 10 year yields:

• Germany, -3.0 basis points at 2.403%. For the trading week, yields fell -6.3 basis here.
• France, -2.5 basis points at 3.11%. For the trading week, yields fell -1.9 basis points
• UK -3.7 basis points at 4.11%. For the trading week, yields fell 3.0 basis points.
• Spain -4.0 basis points at 3.232%. For the trading week, yields fell -2.8 basis points.
• Italy, -2.3 basis points at 3.762%. For the trading week, yields fell -2.4 basis points

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

As the opening bell rings on the major US exchanges, the major indices are trading higher. Having said that the NASDAQ index was up over 200 points in premarket trading and is currently up only 136 points. Having said that with the declines this week, any gain is accepted at this point.

A snapshot of the market currently shows:

• Dow industrial average is trading up 447 points or 1.12% at 40,384. For the week the index is now up 0.26%
• S&P index is trading at 46.80 points or 0.86% at 5445.94. For the week, the index is down -1.07%
• NASDAQ index is trading at 143 points or 0.82% at 17323. For the week, the NASDAQ index is down -2.30%

The small-cap Russell 2000 (which is higher this week by 3.24%) is trading up 38.52 points or 1.73% at 2261.42. For the week, the index is up 3.435%. Last week the index was up 1.67% and the week before the index was up 5.996%.

Looking at the NASDAQ from a technical perspective, getting above 17353, and a swing area at 17494 – 17544 is needed to give the buyers some confidence and gives sellers some cause for pause on the downside.

Looking at the US yields:

• 2-year yield 4.387%, -5.6 basis points
• 5-year yield 4.085%, -6.0 basis points
• 10 year yield 4.205%, -5.0 basis points
• 30-year yield 4.460%, -3.9 basis points

Looking at other markets:

• Crude oil is trading down $0.81 at $77.44. For the week, crude oil is down -1.35%
• Gold is trading up $14 or 0.59% at $2379.30. The price of gold is down -0.89%
• Silver is down four cents or -0.16% at $27.79. The price is down -4.81% this week.
• Bitcoin is trading higher at $67,454 ahead of the weekend conference where former Pres. Trump will give the keynote address.. Last week bitcoin closed the week at $68,158. So the price is still lower on the week, but it’s well off its low at $63,424

The USDJPY has been talked about as the reason for the stock decline (open for some debate). The USDJPY moved up to technical resistance between 154.53 and 154.88, and found willing sellers. The price is back down testing the 38.2% retracement of the move up from December 2023 low at 153.65. The pair has found some support buyers on the look.

With traders in stocks, trading USDJPY, holding that level and bouncing might help stocks. Conversely, breaking below 153.65, followed by more selling the USDJPY could hurt the stocks (especially the USDJPY).

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

• Prior month 68.2
• Current condition 62.7 versus 64.1 preliminary and 65.9 last month.
• Expectation 68.8 versus 67.2 preliminary, and 69.6 last month
• 1 year inflation expectations 2.9% versus 2.9% preliminary and 3.0% last month.
• 5 year inflation expectations 3.0% versus 2.9% preliminary and 3.0% last month

A mix of the details compared to the preliminary.

• Sentiment higher employment area
• Current conditions lower employment area
• Expectations higher than preliminary

In an interesting study chart of the consumer sentiment within the survey, those surveyed with the Top tercile of stock holdings had higher confidence, while those who did not all stocks has a much more negative view on the consumer sentiment. That is not too surprising given the relative rise in US stock markets over the last year and a half.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

• Prior month core PCE 2.6%
• Core PCE MoM 0.2% versus 0.1% estimate. Unrounded was lower than the 0.2% gain at 0.188%
• Core PCE urine year 2.6% versus 2.5% estimate. Last month 2.6%
• PCE MoM 0.1% vs 0.1% estimate. The unrounded was lower than 0.1% at 0.0788%
• PCE YoY 2.5% versus 2.5% estimate and 2.6% prior
• Personal income +0.2% versus 0.4% estimate. Prior month revised down to 0.4% from 0.5%. Wages and salaries were up 0.3%.
• Personal spending 0.2% versus 0.4% last month (revised from 0.3%).
• Savings rate came in at 3.4% versus 3.5% last month

The core PCE was a bit higher than expectations which is somewhat congruent with the core PCE data released yesterday through the GDP report.

The Fed pricing sees 67 basis points of cut by the end of the year with a cut in September priced in.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Today’s data, may help the Fed with their decision next week (and going forward), as the “favored measure of inflation” (the core PCE) will be released at 8:30 AM ET.

A review of the economic data to be released today, will be highlighted by that PCE data (and Personal income and spending) along with the University of Michigan consumer sentiment (final) at 10 AM ET. I have been hearing how the core PCE will be 0.18% but the Reuters estimate has it at 0.1%. Be aware.

• PCE price index MoM: Forecast 0.1% versus 0.0% last month. YoY estimate 2.5% versus 2.6% last month.
• Core PCE Price Index m/m: Forecast 0.2% versus 0.1% last month. Estimate 2.5% versus 2.6% last month
• Personal Income m/m: Estimate 0.4% versus 0.5% last month
• Personal Spending m/m: Estimate 0.3% versus 0.2% last month
• Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment: Estimate 66.0 versus 68.2 last month and 66.0 preliminary
• Revised current conditions: Preliminary 64.1. Last month 65.9
• Revised expectations: Preliminary 67.2. Last month 69.6
• 1-year inflation expectations. Preliminary 2.9% versus 3.0% last month
• 5-year inflation expectations. Preliminary 2.9% versus 3.0% last month

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Headlines:

• All eyes turn to the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation next
• USD/JPY volatility stays in focus after the bounce yesterday
• US futures continue to pull higher on the day
• France July consumer confidence 91 vs 90 expected
• Eurozone consumers see inflation at 2.8% in the next 12 months – ECB survey
• Trump wants a weaker dollar but will he get his wish?

Markets:

• AUD leads, JPY lags on the day
• European equities higher; S&P 500 futures up 0.7%
• US 10-year yields down 1.9 bps to 4.236%
• Gold up 0.4% to $2,373.24
• WTI crude down 0.3% to $76.85
• Bitcoin up 3.0% to $67,231

Markets are taking a bit of a breather today, following the volatile risk selloff in the last few days.

Equities are faring better with S&P 500 futures seen up 0.7% as tech shares are finding some respite. European indices are also holding higher, with the French CAC 40 index seen up 0.9% though still largely down on the week.

In FX, USD/JPY is also keeping with the overnight bounce in a push to 154.70 from around 153.80 earlier in the session. The 100-hour moving average for the pair is seen at 154.83 and will be a key near-term level to watch before the weekend.

As we see traders sense some relief, AUD/USD is also seen higher by 0.3% to 0.6560 while USD/CHF is also up 0.2% to 0.8835 on the day. The latter fell to its lowest since March yesterday but staved off a firm break below 0.8800 at least.

In other markets, gold is also up 0.4% to $2,373 while Bitcoin is up roughly 3% to $67,231 currently.

It’s all pointing to just a bit of respite as all eyes turn to the US PCE report next. That will be the make or break for overall sentiment before we close out the week.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Broader markets are seeking a respite today and if that is to hold, it will need the next key US inflation indicator to play ball. So far, risk trades are sensing some relief today after a rough week. But can it hold through until the weekend?

The expectation for the US PCE price index is for the monthly reading to come in at +0.1% for both the headline and core estimates. Meanwhile, the annual reading is expected to be at +2.5% for both the headline and core estimates as well. However, Goldman Sachs argues that we could see the core reading be at +0.2% m/m and +2.6% y/y with the latter unchanged from May.

The narrative at the moment is that the disinflation process in the US is continuing to take hold. However, it is moving at a rather gradual pace. And given the circumstances, there might be bumps in the road as per what policymakers are expecting as well.

So, even with a 2.6% reading in the core annual estimate today, it’s not a major setback to the Fed.

But with markets pretty much sitting on edge this week, any readings above that could easily spook investors. And all of the early gains we’re seeing in stocks and risk could be in jeopardy before the weekend comes along.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

That is leading to a much better mood in broader markets so far today. USD/JPY is also now trading up by 0.2% to 154.25 with the dollar keeping marginally lower elsewhere. While still in narrow ranges, EUR/USD and GBP/USD are both up 0.1% to 1.0851 and 1.2865 respectively.

Besides that, gold is also seen higher by 0.4% to $2,374 after having fallen by 1.4% in trading yesterday.

In Europe, stocks are also nudging higher now with the DAX up 0.2% and the CAC 40 up 0.9% on the day.

It’s all pointing to a slight reprieve after the continued selloff in risk over the last few days. But there’s still one final hurdle to get through in the US PCE price index later.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Based on the earnings results of companies reporting on 25 July (AMC), here’s a summary focusing on the moves made by these companies and their possible impact on the overall market indices such as SPX and NDX. The list is ordered by market cap to highlight the biggest movers and provide an average weighted move. Emphasis is placed on the most popular companies and brands likely to influence market sentiment. Companies with moves less than 2 percent are disregarded unless they are popular brands or stocks.

Highlights of most popular companies

• Norfolk Southern (NSC)
  • Move: +6.8%
  • Market Cap: $50.4B
  • Impact: Norfolk Southern’s substantial positive move adds to the bullish outlook. 😃

Other notable movers

• Baker Hughes Company (BKR)

  • Move: -36.8%
  • Market Cap: $42.9B
  • Impact: Baker Hughes’ significant negative move suggests strong bearish sentiment. 😟

• Deckers Outdoor (DECK)

  • Move: +10.5%
  • Market Cap: $21.4B
  • Impact: A significant positive move from Deckers Outdoor indicates a bullish sentiment. 😊

• Hartford Financial Services Group (HIG)

  • Move: +1.9%
  • Market Cap: $35.5B
  • Impact: A positive move from Hartford Financial is a bullish indicator, though below 2%, it’s included due to its popularity. 😊

Overall market cap weighted trend

1. Positive influence:

   • Norfolk Southern (+6.8%): With a market cap of $50.4B, Norfolk Southern’s positive move will have a considerable bullish influence.
   • Deckers Outdoor (+10.5%): A substantial move from Deckers Outdoor, with its $21.4B market cap, significantly boosts bullish sentiment.

2. Negative influence:

   • Baker Hughes (-36.8%): The sharp decline from Baker Hughes, with its $42.9B market cap, is a significant bearish influence.

3. Overall sentiment:

   • The combined effect of these movements, weighted by their market caps, suggests a mixed outlook with a slight bullish bias. The substantial positive impacts from Norfolk Southern and Deckers Outdoor are likely to outweigh the negative impact from Baker Hughes.

Expected directional bias for 26 July

• Slightly bullish: Given the positive impact from high market cap companies like Norfolk Southern and Deckers Outdoor, the overall market indices (SPX and NDX) are expected to trend slightly bullish on 26 July. The influence of these household names is likely to sway retail investor sentiment towards a more optimistic outlook. 📈

Investors and traders should prepare for a potentially mixed market with a slight bullish bias, adjusting their strategies accordingly based on the performance of these influential companies and the overall market sentiment derived from these earnings reports.

This article was written by Itai Levitan at www.forexlive.com.