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The USDCAD has seen plenty of up-and-down price action this week, but one message has been consistent: buyers have struggled to sustain momentum near the highs for the year.

The highs from October 5 and October 9 established a ceiling near 1.4292–1.4298. Monday’s high fell short at 1.4286. On Wednesday, the stronger-than-expected CPI data gave buyers another opportunity to push higher, but the rally stalled at 1.4298.

From there, the price rotated lower and closed back below the 100- and 200-hour moving averages near 1.4244.

Go figure. Stronger inflation. A lower USDCAD.

Yesterday’s higher-than-expected PPI data did not turn the tide either. Instead, the pair extended its decline, breaking below a key floor between 1.41922 and…

• Prior was 0.0% (revised to +0.1%)
• Capacity utilization 76.9% vs 76.5% exp
• Manufacturing output +0.3% vs +0.3% exp
• Prior manufacturing output -0.3% (revised to -0.2%)

• Mining +0.2%
• Utilities +3.5%
• Machinery +1.4%, primary metals +1.6%, electrical equipment +1.3%, chemicals +1.0%.

The headline is flattered by utilities. Electric utility output jumped 3.7% m/m and is up 9.6% y/y, and the utility operating rate rose 2.3 points to 73.8%. That could be weather, but the year-over-year trend is consistent with data center load. Utilities output rose at a 14.8% annualized pace in Q3.

Manufacturing is a two-speed story:

• Semiconductor output rose 2.1% m/m and is up 19.9% y/y. It grew at a 28.4% annualized rate in Q3, which drove most of the 3.8% gain in…

• Want to gauge neutral rate estimate taking into account accumulative impact of past rate hikes on financial conditions, domestic prices
• Hard to say anything clear about Japan’s neutral rate of interest
• Takeaway from this week’s meetings was to exchange views with other policymakers on how Middle East conflict and AI demand could affect global, Japanese economies and inflation
• As we have said, our policy has entered a new phase as underlying inflation is quite close to 2%, we cannot allow inflation to rise further
• As underlying inflation is quite close to 2%, it is becoming more important than before to anchor inflation around our target
• Haven’t been in touch with US Treasury Secretary Bessent since we met in Asheville
• Timing, pace of future…

The US dollar continues its move to the downside today despite the hotter US CPI and PPI reports this week. Treasury yields are also higher this morning, but the greenback is struggling to attract buyers.

In the morning video above, I take a look at the three major currency pairs—EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD—from a technical perspective. For each pair, I outline the bias, the risk-defining levels and the targets that would give either the buyers or sellers more control.

The disconnect between the inflation headlines and the dollar’s direction is worth watching. Stronger inflation would normally offer support through expectations for tighter monetary policy. However, traders still need to see that fundamental story reflected in the price…

• Prior was +0.7% m/m (revised to +0.5%)
• Export prices +2.2% vs +1.0% expected
• Prior export prices were +0.6% (revised to +1.2%)
• Import prices y/y 8.1%  vs +7.0% prior

It's been an ugly week for inflation data. The market seems to think the Fed can tame it by waiting until December but that's some serious imported inflation that's going to be working its way through prices for awhile.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes the import and export price indexes  monthly. They measure what US buyers pay for foreign goods and services and what foreign buyers pay for American output. The data rarely moves markets on its own, but it is a useful read on how the dollar, global commodity prices and foreign producer costs are feeding into the US economy.…

Ethereum extended the losses yesterday following a hot US PPI report but eventually rebounded strongly as dip-buyers stepped in around key technical levels.

The macro and geopolitical pictures haven’t improved at all, so the rebound looks to be driven more by overstretched positioning.

This could limit the upside unless we get a breakthrough in US-Iran negotiations or the economic data continues to point towards a strong economy while the Fed remains slow in addressing inflationary pressures.

Looking ahead, we have the Flash PMIs, the FOMC, US–Iran negotiations and the US midterm elections as key catalysts. Deteriorating economic data could increase concerns …

Headlines:

• Gold shrugs off hot inflation data as market focus may be shifting to growth concerns
• How have interest rate expectations changed after this week's events?
• Chart of the day: 10-year Treasury yields hit reverse this week but the real test is still ahead
• Eurozone September final CPI +3.8% vs +3.8% y/y prelim

Markets:

• NZD leads, USD and JPY lag on the day
• 10-year Treasury yields up 2.5 bps to 5.11%
• WTI crude oil -0.3% to $96.20
• Gold up 0.2% to $4,176
• European stocks higher; S&P 500 futures +0.1%
• Bitcoin up 0.7% to $82,577

It was a quieter session as broader markets continue to digest the calmer mood as we look toward the final stages this week.

The selloff in the bond market had stalled in recent days despite hotter-than-expected US inflation…

Crude oil extended the gains yesterday into new highs as the lack of positive developments in the Middle East continues to support oil prices. The US-Iran negotiations have stalled over the conditions for reopening the Strait of Hormuz.

The US insists that Iran needs to address the nuclear programme first, while Tehran continues to prioritise its conditions, which include the lifting of the US blockade.

Iran has intensified the disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, with reports of vessels being struck and container ships sinking after hitting naval mines. Iranian officials have also said that they are using new tactics to target ships.

Meanwhile, the conflict between…

The past few weeks have been rather painful for EUR/USD buyers but it seems like things are finally taking a turn for the better. Ironically, this is all coming after hotter-than-expected US inflation data from the CPI and PPI reports this week. Yet, that is helping to give EUR/USD a lift as it pushes to 1.1260 today - the highest in a little over a week.

The immediate reaction to the US CPI report on Wednesday saw the pair fall to a low of 1.1114 before staging a meaningful rebound in the past few sessions. And with that, the technical picture is also starting to look more encouraging for buyers.

Of note, EUR/USD has managed to climb back above both its 100-hour (red line) and 200-hour (blue line) moving averages for the first time in five…

• Eurozone September final CPI +3.8% vs +3.8% y/y prelim
• Prior +3.2%
• Eurozone September final core CPI +2.5% vs +2.5% y/y prelim
• Prior +2.4%

There are no changes to the preliminary estimates, with euro area headline inflation confirmed to have surged to 3.8% in September. That marks a notable acceleration from the 3.2% estimate in August, with energy price inflation being the main culprit. Of note, energy prices were up 4.0% monthly and 18.9% annually in September (as compared to 14.3% annually in August).

While the ECB may be able to look past the acceleration in headline prices, it will be tough for policymakers to keep brushing aside further increases in core inflation. The annual estimate here is seen rising to 2.5% from 2.4% previously. And…

Solana has been under pressure in the past couple of weeks alongside the broader crypto market as deteriorating macro conditions and rising oil prices weighed on risk sentiment.

On the fundamental side, the upcoming Alpenglow upgrade could be a key catalyst. Scheduled for October 21, the consensus upgrade aims to reduce transaction finality, improving Solana's performance for applications requiring faster settlement.

On the macro side, despite higher than expected US inflation data, we’ve seen minor changes in Fed rate hike expectations and the slightly dovish repricing further out the curve, suggest the market might be starting to get more concerned about the growth …

Dow Jones futures recover, but can bulls overcome 52,612 amid Fed and inflation uncertainty?

Dow Jones futures are showing a more constructive technical picture on Friday, October 16, but the economic backdrop remains complicated. Federal Reserve uncertainty, persistent inflation, concerns about AI financing and changing bond-market expectations could influence the next move. Meanwhile, E-mini Dow futures are approaching an important resistance test around 52,612, with higher potential targets if buyers can sustain the recovery. Let's first jump into my Dow Jones futures technical analysis video right with the European market open:

What news could affect the Dow Jones today?

Several developments over the past 24 hours deserve attention. They…