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The PBOC allows the yuan to fluctuate within a +/- 2% range, around this reference rate. More here on this.
August's corporate goods price index reinforces what markets had already priced in, that the Bank of Japan is close to certain to raise rates to 1.25% at next week's meeting, so the immediate surprise value for JPY crosses is limited. The more interesting detail is the import price index, up 24.8% year on year, which points to continued yen weakness feeding directly into domestic cost pressures rather than easing as some had hoped. That keeps alive the more hawkish end of rate expectations, with analysts now pencilling in a further hike to 1.75% in the second quarter of 2027, earlier than previously anticipated. For JPY, the data supports the broader narrative of a BOJ playing catch-up on inflation, which should continue to underpin the…
The fixing mechanism matters most right now because of what it has been signalling over recent weeks. The PBOC set its reference rate at the widest weak side deviation from market estimates in six months in late August, after the yuan touched a three and a half year high, a clear sign of discomfort with the pace of gains rather than the level itself. Traders should read this as the central bank applying the brakes rather than attempting to reverse the broader trend, since the yuan has still risen a meaningful amount against the dollar this year. The balancing act Beijing faces is straightforward: a stronger currency helps with capital stability and import costs, but too rapid a rise risks eroding export competitiveness at a time when the…
Friday's Asian selloff is a fairly direct continuation of Thursday's US session, where a hotter than expected PPI print and a fresh leg higher in Treasury yields pushed traders to price in a substantially higher chance of a Federal Reserve rate hike at next week's meeting, up sharply from before the data. Rising yields hit growth and technology names hardest in the US on Thursday, and that same dynamic appears to be carrying through to Asian tech-heavy indices this morning, with South Korea's Kospi and Japan's Nikkei both under pressure. The other major thread running through Thursday's session was oil, with Brent surging more than 6% to briefly trade above $108 a barrel on Iran war-related supply concerns, a move that both adds to…
more to come
This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.FARTCOIN's reported 20 percent slide over 24 hours, alongside more than 6.5 million tokens moving to exchange hot wallets, is a useful live example of a pattern that recurs across crypto markets whenever a price move coincides with an on-chain transfer story.
The transfers themselves, including flows attributed to Coinbase Prime Custody, Gate.io and market maker Wintermute, are drawn from a single on-chain tracking account rather than confirmed by the exchanges or custodians involved, and a transfer to an exchange wallet is not the same event as an executed sale. Even the reporting's own netflow figures showed inflows only modestly ahead of outflows on the day, smaller than some earlier periods, which sits awkwardly against headline…
The August reading confirms New Zealand's manufacturing sector is still growing, but the pace is clearly moderating, a signal that may feed into the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's broader read on domestic activity alongside employment and price data. The flat employment sub-index, sitting right at the 50.0 breakeven line, is arguably the more sensitive data point for rate-path watchers, since a slip below that mark would point to actual sector job losses rather than simply slower hiring intentions. Steady New Orders and Finished Stocks readings suggest underlying demand has not cracked, which should temper any reading of this print as a genuine downturn signal. For NZD crosses, a soft but still-expansionary PMI is unlikely to be a…
The circular financing debate cuts to a question investors have been circling for months (many, many months): how much of the current AI infrastructure buildout reflects genuine end-user demand versus vendor financing chasing its own tail. Nvidia's customer concentration disclosure, with three direct customers accounting for 16%, 15% and 13% of first-half fiscal 2027 revenue, gives the concern some statistical weight regardless of how the investment structuring is characterised. Regulatory commentary from the IMF and BIS on AI financing risk more broadly adds a macro dimension, since both flagged growing use of debt and private credit across the AI value chain rather than singling out any one company. For now, the debate looks more…
USD/JPY: 154.00 US$2.86bn 153.00 US$2.74bn 152.00 US$1.66bn
EUR/USD: 1.1575 EUR1.44bn 1.1600 EUR996.2mn 1.1500 EUR947mn
AUD/USD: 0.7150 AUD657.4mn 0.7250 AUD622.1mn 0.7110 AUD543.5mn
USD/CAD: 1.3900 US$693.8mn 1.3800 US$535mn 1.3950 US$319.7mn
GBP/USD: 1.3630 GBP565.4mn 1.3500 GBP540mn
Q&A: FX option expiries
What exactly is an FX option expiry? An FX option gives its holder the right, though not the requirement, to buy or sell one currency for another at an agreed rate, called the strike, on or before a set date. That date is the expiry.
Why can a large expiry influence the spot market? It largely comes down to hedging. Banks and dealers who have written these options typically hedge their exposure by trading the underlying currency pair. As…
Thursday's confirmed attack on two vessels near Oman's Khasab, at the mouth of the Strait of Hormuz, adds a fresh, verified data point to the run of shipping incidents that have punctuated the Iran war since earlier this year, and this kind of event tends to move oil risk premia even before vessel identities or damage extent are known. That sits alongside, but is separate from, the still-unconfirmed claim that Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline has suffered a fresh rupture, a claim now supported by a second round of satellite imagery rather than by any official corroboration.
A confirmed shipping attack landing on the same day raises the odds that traders start pricing in a broader pattern of extended infrastructure risk rather than…
Thursday's confirmed attack on two vessels near Oman's Khasab, at the mouth of the Strait of Hormuz, adds a fresh, verified data point to the run of shipping incidents that have punctuated the Iran war since earlier this year, and this kind of event tends to move oil risk premia even before vessel identities or damage extent are known. That sits alongside, but is separate from, the still-unconfirmed claim that Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline has suffered a fresh rupture, a claim now supported by a second round of satellite imagery rather than by any official corroboration.
A confirmed shipping attack landing on the same day raises the odds that traders start pricing in a broader pattern of extended infrastructure risk rather than…
I'll get more up on this soon, but this is moving oil:
Also, Iran has struck 2 vessels with 4 missiles in the US-backed southern Omani corridor of the Strait of Hormuz. the vessels were transiting under US escort.
This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.