Market News

• Yen weakens on BoJ hike as two dissents temper hawkish read Alt headlines:
• Bank of Japan (BOJ) raises policy rate by 25bp, as expected
• Re Airbus, Pratt & Whitney: French airline has grounded a newly upgraded aircraft
• Goldman keeps $5,400 gold forecast intact despite Fed hike
• UBS sees two more RBA hikes to 4.85% terminal rate after Bullock's comments
• Bullock: RBA weighing whether policy is tight enough as oil pressures build
• US sanctions Iranian crypto exchange BitBank over IRGC Hormuz bitcoin transfers
• PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 6.7521 (vs. estimate at 6.7065)
• Seven ways to value Bitcoin, from network adoption to stock-to-flow
• Yen slips, Aussie firms as BoJ data softens and Bullock flags RBA hike
• Bullock says upside inflation…

The 7-2 vote split, with dissents from Toichiro Asada and Ayano Sato, confirms the board remains genuinely divided rather than unanimous in its resolve, which may temper how aggressively markets price the pace of further tightening beyond today's move.

The statement's explicit forward guidance, that the Bank will continue raising rates in response to developments in activity, prices and financial conditions, gives markets a clear signal that this is not viewed as a one-off adjustment.

The BoJ's own attachment flags underlying CPI accelerating to clearly above 2% from the second half of fiscal 2026, which is a meaningfully hawkish signal for JGB yields if realised, though the Bank also acknowledges the Middle East situation and AI-related…

The move higher in USD/JPY, from around 156.25 to around 156.70  (156.80+ as I type now), is a fairly clean "buy the rumour, sell the fact" reaction: the 25 basis point hike to 1.25% was close to fully priced heading into the decision, so simply delivering it removed a source of uncertainty without giving the currency fresh support. The 7-2 vote, rather than a stronger consensus, is doing some of the work behind the yen's softer tone, since two dissents signal the board is not unanimously convinced the economy and inflation have accelerated enough to justify tightening, a slightly less hawkish outcome than a cleaner vote would have implied. Even so, the Bank's own guidance that it will continue raising rates, along with its projection…

The immediate financial exposure here is contained since only four aircraft from a 14-strong fleet at a single regional French carrier are affected, but the reputational and regulatory stakes are broader. The Pratt & Whitney engine involved is now the default on new ATR turboprop deliveries and has been ordered by FedEx and IndiGo, so any finding that points to a design issue rather than an isolated fleet problem could carry implications for RTX, Pratt & Whitney's parent, and for Airbus and Leonardo as ATR's joint owners. The episode also lands inside a live, wider debate over bleed air systems used on almost every commercial aircraft flying today, following earlier reporting that found leaks of engine oil and other fluids into aircraft…

The PBOC allows the yuan to fluctuate within a +/- 2% range, around this reference rate. More here on this.

• 6.7521 is the strongest for CNY since 3 February, 2023

PBoC injects 463.3bn yuan via 7-day reverse repos at 1.40%

• injects 100bn in 14-day reverse repos

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Goldman Sachs holding its end-2027 gold forecast at $5,400 an ounce despite this week's rate hike is the more notable signal here, since it suggests the bank sees the Fed's tightening path as a headwind that slows gold's rally rather than one that reverses it. That view sits against a backdrop where higher rates would typically curb demand for a non-yielding asset by increasing the appeal of yield-bearing alternatives, yet gold has still edged higher on Friday, helped by a softer dollar and a 1% pullback in oil prices. With 16 of 18 Fed policymakers now pointing to at least one more hike this year, the near-term path for real yields remains a genuine headwind, but Goldman's unchanged long-term call implies the bank sees that pressure as…

This second batch of Q&A comments (earlier) hardens the picture from Bullock's earlier testimony, with her saying inflation risks are skewed to the upside and that persistent inflationary shocks are hard to look through, language that leaves little room to read a pause into the September 28-29 meeting. Her comment that there is a general consensus the neutral rate has risen matters beyond this cycle, since a higher neutral rate implies the RBA's current policy setting is less restrictive than the headline cash rate alone suggests, supporting her earlier remark that the Board is thinking about whether policy is tight enough. Deputy Governor Hauser's line that the Board is totally committed to hitting the inflation target reinforces that…

Bullock's Q&A comments read as a clear extension of her earlier committee testimony, where she said upside inflation risks flagged in August are now materialising, and they push the tone further toward a hike at the September 28-29 meeting. The explicit "higher for longer" framing on oil, paired with her comment that businesses are now more inclined to pass on cost increases, speaks directly to the pass-through risk the RBA has been watching closely, while her remark that the Board is thinking about whether policy is tight enough is about as direct a signal as a sitting Governor gives outside a post-meeting statement. Her characterisation of the housing price falls as not that significant removes a potential reason to hold off tightening…

The designation adds a fresh layer of scrutiny to crypto's role in Iran sanctions evasion, a theme likely to keep pressure on exchanges and wallets with any exposure to Iranian-linked flows, even indirectly. It also touches the Hormuz corridor story directly, since the sanctioned Hormuz Safe Marine Services Authority is described as having used BitBank to process payments tied to its bitcoin-settled transit scheme for vessels crossing the strait, a scheme Iran had reportedly targeted for over $10 billion in revenue. For oil and shipping markets, the practical effect is incremental rather than immediate, since sanctions on a single exchange are unlikely to materially disrupt Iran's broader sanctions evasion infrastructure, but they add…

Seven ways to value Bitcoin, according to Ned Davis Research

Bitcoin has risen 26% over the past four months, and its climb last month came as senators debated the Clarity Act. Even after that legislation failed in the Senate, Bitcoin held onto most of those gains, according to Dow Jones Newswires (via MarketWatch). But the question of what Bitcoin is actually worth remains one of the more contested debates in markets, precisely because, unlike a stock or a bond, it has no cash flow, earnings, or balance sheet to anchor a valuation.

Ned Davis Research's chief alternatives strategist, John Laforge, addressed that gap directly in a note published Wednesday, cited by Dow Jones Newswires, laying out seven distinct approaches to valuing the…

The fixing mechanism matters most right now because of what it has been signalling over recent weeks. The PBOC set its reference rate at the widest weak side deviation from market estimates in six months in late August, after the yuan touched a three and a half year high, a clear sign of discomfort with the pace of gains rather than the level itself. Traders should read this as the central bank applying the brakes rather than attempting to reverse the broader trend, since the yuan has still risen a meaningful amount against the dollar this year. The balancing act Beijing faces is straightforward: a stronger currency helps with capital stability and import costs, but too rapid a rise risks eroding export competitiveness at a time when the…

Moves have been modest but clearly visible in Asian trade, with the yen the session's underperformer after Japan August inflation data undershot forecasts across the board, and the Australian dollar the stronger performer following Governor Bullock's comments to a parliamentary committee. USD/JPY has ticked higher as traders price a chance the Bank of Japan sounds less hawkish in its outlook today even if it delivers the widely expected rate hike, while AUD/USD has firmed on the view that Bullock's remark that upside inflation risks flagged in August are now materialising all but confirms another RBA hike at the September 28-29 meeting. Neither move has been dramatic, but the divergence gives a clean read on how each central bank's…