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• High yield 4.538%.
• WI level at the time of the auction 4.539%.
• Tail -0.1 basis points versus six auction average of 0.6 basis points
• Bid to cover 2.57X versus 2.44X
• Directs 12.3% versus average of 21.1%
• Indirects 78.21% versus average of 67.6%
• Dealers 9.5% vs average 11.4%

Auction Grade B+

The only negative was that the domestic buyers were much less than the average. The international buyers made up for the shortfall and the dealers were saddled with less than the average which is indicative of solid demand.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

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The US treasury will auction off $39 billion of 10 year notes at the top of the hour. The current 10 year yield is at 4.534%. At the last auction the yield was set at 4.468%.

Since the war started on February 28, the low yield was at 3.926% on March 2, the high was reached at 4.687% on May 19. The corrective low reached since the high has dipped to 4.422% reached last week.

Why the 10-Year Yield Matters

• Mortgage Rates – Higher yields usually lead to higher mortgage rates, which can slow home sales and construction.
• Business Borrowing – Companies pay more to borrow when yields rise, potentially reducing investment and hiring.
• Stock Valuations – Higher yields make bonds more attractive and can pressure stock prices, especially growth and…
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Trump earlier talked about the US hitting back and I'd say that's likely but a bit less on this. This is a guy who was talking tough every day during the early phase of the war and now there's a comment like this? That reads as someone looking for a way out of this.

It looks like Iran is trying to establish escalation dominance with the US, or at least escalation parity.

At the moment, the stock market is getting beaten up on a tech reversal but oil has come down and that's the Iran trade. The Russell 2000 is also down just 0.4%.

Given this it's tough to take the side of "huge escalation is coming" at the moment but you never know with Trump.

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

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Trump cites the downed helicopter.

• We want a deal that's meaningful and works
• We're going to hit them again hard today
• We'll see what happens with the deal
• They keep tapping us along
• They should sign the deal
• Declined to say he was going to hit bridges and power plants
• They have agreed to not have a nuclear weapon, all they need to do is sign the paper
• On the deal "it's fully negotiated"

This is obviously escalation, the only thing that gives me some pause is him saying "today" rather than suggesting it's a campaign. He's also referring back to the deal.

At the same time, it sounds like he thinks he can bomb them into accepting his deal terms. If anything, this might push them further away.

US stocks are at the lows of the day with the S&P 500 down…

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The market is trading a tad better after CPI but the details make for a complex picture. The headlines were basically in-line with estimates and core at +0.2% vs +0.3% was a touch soft. Notably though, the unrounded reading was +0.249% so it was right on the cusp.

The relief bounce isn't a surprise given the market is anxious about runaway inflation that the Fed will be forced to address. This number is still soft enough that Team Transitory 2.0 can hold its breath for another month.

Looking ahead there are notable base effects for the coming months of US CPI: June 2025: +0.3% drops out July 2025: +0.2% drops out August 2025: +0.3% drops out September 2025: +0.3% drops out That means steady +0.3% m/m readings will keep inflation at…

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It's finally time for the CPI and the market is nervous.

Gold and silver cracked today, breaking the war lows on fear that Trump doesn't have the 'imminent' peace deal that he's promised 37 times (according to CNN's count).

Now it looks like the pendulum is swinging towards further escalation with Trump writing:

"Iran’s Military is a complete and total mess. Much of it, like their Navy and Air Force, doesn’t even exist anymore - They have been completely defeated. Iran is all talk and no action. The Bully of the Middle East is DEAD!!! They’ve taken too long to negotiate a deal that would have been great for them, now they will have to pay the price!!! President DONALD J. TRUMP"

His message on Fox News was slightly different, saying that…

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Headline CPI:

• Prior was +3.8%
• m/m reading +0.5% vs +0.5% expected
• Month-over-month unrounded +0.631%
• Unrounded headline +4.249% vs +3.811% prior

Core measures:

• Core CPI m/m +0.2% vs +0.3% expected. Last month +0.4%
• Core CPI y/y +2.9% vs +2.9% expected. Last month was +2.8%
• Unrounded core +2.851% vs +2.750% prior
• Real weekly earnings vs -0.2% prior
• Shelter +0.3% vs +0.6% last month
• Shelter y/y +3.4%
• Services less energy services +0.3% m/m vs +0.5% prior
• Services less energy services y/y +3.4%
• Food +0.2% m/m vs +0.5% m/m prior
• Food +3.1% y/y
• Energy +3.9% m/m vs +3.8% m/m prior
• Energy +23.5% y/y
• Rents +0.4% m/m vs +0.5% prior
• Owner's equivalent rent +0.3% vs +0.5% prior
• Gasoline +7.0% m/m vs +5.4% prior
• Used cars and trucks +0.1% m/m vs 0.0% prior
• New vehicles…
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It's a heated morning already as we look to US trading later with Trump going on blast about Iran today. The message is that he's had just about enough as negotiations continue to drag on and now Iran must "pay the price". As such, he is threatening fresh strikes against Iran's infrastructure while indirectly reaffirming that the naval blockade will stay in place.

So much for being "very close" to a deal, eh? An interesting tidbit from yesterday was that Trump framed that a deal was close or something along those lines nearly 40 times during the war so far. Yet, here we are.

What is of added interest though is the timing of his message today. Before this, he was happy playing to his boy who cried wolf persona. So, what changed?

Is it perhaps…

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Trump on Truth Social:"Iran’s Military is a complete and total mess. Much of it, like their Navy and Air Force, doesn’t even exist anymore - They have been completely defeated. Iran is all talk and no action. The Bully of the Middle East is DEAD!!! They’ve taken too long to negotiate a deal that would have been great for them, now they will have to pay the price!!! President DONALD J. TRUMP"

Trump is getting nervous now that the stock market is falling almost daily? Maybe someone told him that the Fed being forced to hike into a negative supply shock won't be good for the economy nor the mid-term elections?

I've mentioned in the past weeks that the surge in stock prices might have given Trump a false sense of leverage. That works as long as…

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Headlines:

• Trump on Iran: They've taken too long to negotiate a deal, now they will have to pay price
• Iran's Baghaei: Tehran needs to re-assess talks with the US following overnight clashes
• US futures hold lower with inflation data in focus
• The S&P 500 is at risk of another selloff as traders hold their breath ahead of the US CPI
• What is the distribution of forecasts for the US CPI?
• BOJ governor Ueda has been hospitalised, expected to be absent from next week's meeting
• BOJ to raise interest rates to 1% in June meeting - poll

Markets:

• S&P 500 futures down 1.0%, Nasdaq futures down 1.5%
• Oil prices stay underpinned, WTI crude up 1.5% to $89.50
• US dollar keeps steadier across the board
• US 10-year yields up 1.4 bps to 4.54%
• Gold down 2.3% to $4,165
• Bitcoin…
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• Trump says he's close to ordering new strikes against Iranian power plants and bridges
• Tehran taking too long to make a deal

Trump said on Fox News that he is close to authorizing new strikes against Iranian infrastructure, including power plants and bridges, while accusing Tehran of dragging out negotiations and refusing to accept a deal that Washington believes should already have been reached.

Just earlier, Trump portrayed Iran as a defeated military power and warned that its leadership had squandered opportunities for diplomacy. He also claimed that much of the country's naval and air capabilities "don’t even exist anymore" and that Iran had been "completely defeated." He further described the Islamic Republic as "all talk and no action"…

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The post Ex-Dividend 11/06/2026 first appeared on IC Your Trading Edge | Official Blog.

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