Market News

Goldman Sachs holding its end-2027 gold forecast at $5,400 an ounce despite this week's rate hike is the more notable signal here, since it suggests the bank sees the Fed's tightening path as a headwind that slows gold's rally rather than one that reverses it. That view sits against a backdrop where higher rates would typically curb demand for a non-yielding asset by increasing the appeal of yield-bearing alternatives, yet gold has still edged higher on Friday, helped by a softer dollar and a 1% pullback in oil prices. With 16 of 18 Fed policymakers now pointing to at least one more hike this year, the near-term path for real yields remains a genuine headwind, but Goldman's unchanged long-term call implies the bank sees that pressure as…

This second batch of Q&A comments (earlier) hardens the picture from Bullock's earlier testimony, with her saying inflation risks are skewed to the upside and that persistent inflationary shocks are hard to look through, language that leaves little room to read a pause into the September 28-29 meeting. Her comment that there is a general consensus the neutral rate has risen matters beyond this cycle, since a higher neutral rate implies the RBA's current policy setting is less restrictive than the headline cash rate alone suggests, supporting her earlier remark that the Board is thinking about whether policy is tight enough. Deputy Governor Hauser's line that the Board is totally committed to hitting the inflation target reinforces that…

Bullock's Q&A comments read as a clear extension of her earlier committee testimony, where she said upside inflation risks flagged in August are now materialising, and they push the tone further toward a hike at the September 28-29 meeting. The explicit "higher for longer" framing on oil, paired with her comment that businesses are now more inclined to pass on cost increases, speaks directly to the pass-through risk the RBA has been watching closely, while her remark that the Board is thinking about whether policy is tight enough is about as direct a signal as a sitting Governor gives outside a post-meeting statement. Her characterisation of the housing price falls as not that significant removes a potential reason to hold off tightening…

The designation adds a fresh layer of scrutiny to crypto's role in Iran sanctions evasion, a theme likely to keep pressure on exchanges and wallets with any exposure to Iranian-linked flows, even indirectly. It also touches the Hormuz corridor story directly, since the sanctioned Hormuz Safe Marine Services Authority is described as having used BitBank to process payments tied to its bitcoin-settled transit scheme for vessels crossing the strait, a scheme Iran had reportedly targeted for over $10 billion in revenue. For oil and shipping markets, the practical effect is incremental rather than immediate, since sanctions on a single exchange are unlikely to materially disrupt Iran's broader sanctions evasion infrastructure, but they add…

Seven ways to value Bitcoin, according to Ned Davis Research

Bitcoin has risen 26% over the past four months, and its climb last month came as senators debated the Clarity Act. Even after that legislation failed in the Senate, Bitcoin held onto most of those gains, according to Dow Jones Newswires (via MarketWatch). But the question of what Bitcoin is actually worth remains one of the more contested debates in markets, precisely because, unlike a stock or a bond, it has no cash flow, earnings, or balance sheet to anchor a valuation.

Ned Davis Research's chief alternatives strategist, John Laforge, addressed that gap directly in a note published Wednesday, cited by Dow Jones Newswires, laying out seven distinct approaches to valuing the…

The fixing mechanism matters most right now because of what it has been signalling over recent weeks. The PBOC set its reference rate at the widest weak side deviation from market estimates in six months in late August, after the yuan touched a three and a half year high, a clear sign of discomfort with the pace of gains rather than the level itself. Traders should read this as the central bank applying the brakes rather than attempting to reverse the broader trend, since the yuan has still risen a meaningful amount against the dollar this year. The balancing act Beijing faces is straightforward: a stronger currency helps with capital stability and import costs, but too rapid a rise risks eroding export competitiveness at a time when the…

Moves have been modest but clearly visible in Asian trade, with the yen the session's underperformer after Japan August inflation data undershot forecasts across the board, and the Australian dollar the stronger performer following Governor Bullock's comments to a parliamentary committee. USD/JPY has ticked higher as traders price a chance the Bank of Japan sounds less hawkish in its outlook today even if it delivers the widely expected rate hike, while AUD/USD has firmed on the view that Bullock's remark that upside inflation risks flagged in August are now materialising all but confirms another RBA hike at the September 28-29 meeting. Neither move has been dramatic, but the divergence gives a clean read on how each central bank's…

Bullock's acknowledgment that upside inflation risks flagged in August are now materialising, rather than merely a possibility, leans hawkish ahead of the Board's meeting in just over a week. Her explicit link between Middle East oil price gains and both direct and indirect inflation pass-through gives markets a clearer read on why a further hike remains live, even as she flagged that Australian growth is slowing. The Australian dollar could find some support from the hawkish tone, particularly the reference to other advanced-economy central banks also responding to the same global inflation shock, though the acknowledgment of softening housing and gradually easing labour market conditions tempers how far that repricing is likely to run.…

New Zealand August data. 

Trade Balance -1349mn

• Expected -1775mn, Prior -2118mn
• Annual Trade Balance -5.44bn

Imports 8bn

• Prior 9.33bn

Exports 6.66bn

• Prior 7.22bn 

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Food Prices (y/y) 1.9%

• Prior 1.9%
• for the m/m +0.3%

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Just the data here, I'll have more to come on this separately.

August y/y headline CPI 1.9%

• expected 2.0%, prior 1.9%

CPI Ex-Food and Energy (AKA core-core CPI) 1.7%

• expected 2.0%, prior 1.8%

Ex-Food CPI (AKA core CPI) 1.7%

• expected 1.8%, prior 1.8%

Background:

• Preview: BoJ rate hike bet stays intact as Japan awaits August CPI

Still to come:

• Preview: BoJ set to hike rates today, focus turns to pace and yen reaction

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

JPMorgan says Bitcoin's hedging overhang could work in its favour against gold

What happened

JPMorgan analysts said in a note dated September 17 that Bitcoin could gain more support than gold if investors start unwinding the short positions and options currently used to hedge Bitcoin ETF holdings. The bank pointed to a gap in how the two ETF markets have recovered since inflows returned after the Federal Reserve's late-July meeting: gold ETFs have clawed back all of their earlier 2026 outflows, while Bitcoin ETFs have only recovered about half of theirs.

The evidence behind the call is positioning data, not price action. Short interest in BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) remains close to its highest level this year, while short…

UBS's view that further hikes remain likely this year points to continued support for the US dollar and real yields, a combination that raises the opportunity cost of holding gold and could see some of August's ETF inflows unwind in the near term. Longer term, the bank argues gold's investment case remains intact, underpinned by rising global debt, an expected weaker dollar and the prospect of rate cuts next year.

Other analysts framed the unanimous vote as evidence the Fed is taking a firmer stance against persistent inflation, much of it tied to elevated energy prices flowing from the conflict in the Middle East, with a further hike by year end widely seen as close to settled. Beyond that, views diverge sharply on how long above-target…