Market News

US treasury sells $16 billion of two-year notes at a high yield of 4.315%

• High yield 4.315%
• WI level at the time of the auction 4.320%
• Tail -0.5 basis points vs average of 0.1 bps
• Bid to cover 2.66X vs average of 2.63X
• Directs 34.05% versus average of 29.2%
• Indirects 56.59% versus average of 58.2%
• Dealers 9.36% versus average of 12.6%

AUCTION GRADE: B+

Solid auction with a negative tail, directs higher. Indirect modestly below the average. Dealers are saddled with less than average

N12 News is reporting on comments from Pres. Trump:

• We are having deep talks with Iran.
• I am not going to take much time to negotiate, either it will move quickly or won't happen at all.
• we will go back to very powerful military action if talks are not successful.
• Everyone involved in negotiations with Iran has asked me don't shoot emphasizing that he believes the Iranians want to reach a deal.
• There is nothing to gain and nothing to lose.
• Says that since he pauses the Straits, oil prices have fallen and stock markets have risen.

The Dow industrial average is up 300 points or 0.57%. The S&P index is up modestly by 0.10% and the NASDAQ is down modestly by -0.06% in what has been volatile up and down trading today.

Technically, looking at the…

The USDCAD is modestly higher on the day after sellers failed to extend the downside following an early break lower. The pair opened on the defensive and slipped below its rising 100-hour moving average (currently at 1.40874), but bearish momentum quickly stalled ahead of the 200-hour moving average at 1.4064. The decline reached a low of 1.4071—just above that key support—before buyers stepped back in and drove the pair higher.

That rebound has now lifted the USDCAD to 1.4112, putting the pair within just 4 pips of last week's high at 1.41166. That level is technically significant because it also aligns with the July 10 swing low, meaning what had previously acted as support has now turned into resistance. If buyers are to strengthen the…

The US economic calendar of releases is done for the day after the weaker than expected durable goods orders. However, there will be not one but 2 coupon auctions today. Normally the US treasury auctions off its coupon issues on to say Wednesday and Thursday. However, because of the Federal Reserve interest rate decision on Wednesday, they will frontload the auctions starting today. Below is a detailed looking at the auctions this week:

U.S. Treasury Auction Calendar (Week of July 27, 2026)

Monday, July 27

• 11:30 a.m ET – $69 billion 2-year note auction
• 1:00 p.m. ET – $70 billion 5-year note auction

Tuesday, July 28

• 1:00 p.m. ET – $44 billion 7-year note auction

The Fed decision will be on Wednesday followed by the press conference with Fed…

The major U.S. stock indices are trading higher, with investors encouraged by a combination of easing geopolitical tensions, sharply lower oil prices, and hopes that the recent flare-up in the Middle East may be giving way to renewed diplomacy. The Dow Jones Industrial Average leads the gains, up 1.23%, while the NASDAQ is higher by roughly 242 points, or 0.95%, after being up more than 300 points in premarket trading. The S&P 500 is up 0.81%.

One of the biggest catalysts today has been the sharp decline in crude oil. WTI crude is down more than $5.40 a barrel, extending its retreat as traders unwind the geopolitical risk premium that had been built into prices over the past two weeks. Reports suggesting a pause in U.S. military…

The USDCHF moved higher last week, testing a topside trendline connecting the series of lower highs dating back to July 1 on the hourly chart (see red numbered circles on the chart below). The pair stalled against that trendline on both Thursday and Friday, leaving traders with a key question heading into the new week: Would buyers finally force a breakout, or would sellers regain control?

The answer initially came during the Asian session, when the pair gapped lower and fell back below the 0.8170 level. As highlighted in last week's videos, the 0.8170–0.8214 zone represents an important resistance area from the 2025 daily chart (see the daily chart below - top yellow area). Selers moving below that level tilted the bias lower. 

The decline…

• Prior month -4.5% revised to -4.0%
• Advanced Durable goods orders for June 03% versus 2.5% estimate
• Durable goods ex transportation 0.6% vs 0 8% estimate. Prior month 1.8%
• Durable goods ex defense 0.3% versus -4.3% last month. Prior month -4.3%
• Nondefense capital ex air 0.9% versus 0.8%. Prior month +1.9%

Details of shipment, inventories:

• Manufactured durable goods shipments rose $2.4 billion (+0.7%) in June to $330.7 billion, following a 1.1% increase in May. Positive.
• Computers and electronic products led shipment gains, rising $0.8 billion (+2.4%) to $34.7 billion, marking the ninth consecutive monthly increase.
• Unfilled orders increased $9.3 billion (+0.6%) to $1.590 trillion, after a 0.7% gain in May.
• Transportation equipment led the…

The USD is mostly lower as yields retreat as oil retreats, as stocks don't retreat (they rise) as the war retreats.   In the video above I take a look at the 3 major currency pairs to kickstart the trading day in North America. What are the key levels in play and why (I show you too)?  What is the bias, the risks for that bias and the targets on where you are going.   Be aware. Be prepared. 

The biggest development over the weekend was the pause in the U.S. bombing campaign against Iran, ending nearly two weeks of escalating military action and creating an opportunity for renewed diplomacy. President Trump halted additional strikes after military advisers concluded the campaign had largely achieved its objectives while warning that further…

Headlines:

• Market update today and what may be interesting to trade
• Oil prices fall as expectations for de-escalation strengthen after the US halted strikes on Iran
• A case of US-Iran déjà vu for markets?
• Big tech earnings in focus in Wall Street this week
• ECB policymaker Žigman says September decision will be based on data and projections
• ECB policymaker Kazimir says at least one more rate hike will be needed
• Japan must exit excessively tight fiscal policy, says prime minister Takaichi
• Germany business sentiment rises further and by more than expected in July - Ifo
• UK retailers report smallest downturn in sales in six months during July - CBI

Markets:

• WTI crude down 6.7% to $83.30, Brent crude down 7.5% to $89.45
• European equities gain; S&P 500…

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW

USD:

The US dollar came back under pressure after some positive developments on the US-Iran front. In fact, the US halted its strikes after 13 days of attacks and Iran said it will maintain a ceasefire so long as the US remains on pause.

This has led to some optimism as traders took this latest development as an early sign of a potential de-escalation and triggered a selloff in oil prices.

The greenback will likely remain under pressure amid the de-escalation expectations, but traders will keep a close eye on the headlines as things can re-escalate quickly with just a single Trump’s post.

Looking ahead, we have the FOMC rate decision on Wednesday…

Market update today: Nasdaq rebounds, oil retreats and Ethereum targets $2,150

TLDR: Risk appetite improved on July 27 as equity markets rebounded and oil retreated. Nasdaq cash has important support at 27,900-28,000, copper remains constructive above 6.30, natural gas risks falling toward 2.50, and Ethereum is targeting 2,140-2,150 after defending 1,963.

The market began the week with a stronger tone in equities and renewed pressure on energy prices as concerns surrounding the Middle East eased. However, several markets remain close to important decision levels rather than confirmed breakouts.

The figures below refer to different instruments, including cash indices, continuous futures, September futures contracts, spot cryptocurrencies and…

• UK July retail sales balance -26
• Prior -54
• UK expected retail sales for August -26
• Prior -45

The headline retail sales balance for July is the highest since January while the expected sales for the month ahead in August also climbs to its highest since March. Besides that, the volume of retail sales for this time of the year was reported to be below normal by the smallest amont since February. So, that's some added good news despite the still negative readings above.

Do keep in mind though that the CBI retail sales data tends to be a bit more downbeat as compared to the BRC data and/or the ONS typically. So, there's that to account for too when viewing the readings. You can even see that with the ONS retail sales data for June that was…