Market News

What is Bitcoin’s price action telling traders?

As Friday moves toward its conclusion and Bitcoin transitions into weekend trading, the price action is sending a fairly clear message: neither buyers nor sellers have taken firm control of the broader range, but the shorter-term bias has tilted back in favor of the sellers.

Bitcoin has been trading in an up-and-down range since August 21. The lower boundary comes between $75,688 and $76,229, while the upper boundary is between $81,517 and $82,281. Those areas continue to define the larger battle between buyers and sellers.

Sellers had their shot at the range floor

Earlier this week, Bitcoin tested the lower support area between $75,688 and $76,229. Sellers had their shot to push through the…

As the trading week moves to a close, the USDCAD is moving higher in trading today, extending the week’s trading range after buyers leaned against an important cluster of moving-average support.

At today’s low, the pair found willing buyers near its 200-day moving average at 1.38323 and the 200-hour moving average at 1.38258. When two technically important moving averages sit near one another, the area becomes more significant. Buyers can lean against that cluster because it provides a clearly defined level where they can measure and limit risk.

The rebound took the price back above the 50% midpoint of the 2026 trading range at 1.38663 and briefly through the nearby swing area between 1.38669 and 1.38770. However, the upside momentum…

The dust is beginning to clear on the Houthi attack on Thursday on Saudi Arabia's east-west pipeline and the picture isn't good. The above picture is the 'after' and here is the purported 'before' image of a pumping station.

Evidently, 'several' of these were hit in the western part of the country.

I want to put into perspective the importance of this pipeline, because it's critical. It carries up to 7 million barrels per day but analysts have pegged the actual useful capacity at 5-6 mbpd. It was constructed as a (wise) backup to exports via Hormuz and was put into service following the war.

It's been a tremendously important relief valve to get oil to market. Now it's shut down.

A statement from Saudi Arabia officially confirms it:

The market is already priced at 86% so they're late to the party on this one.

Might as well also put out a forecast for Spain to win the 2026 FIFA World Cup.

In any case, all that's at stake now is Warsh's credibility. If he doesn't hike, then it's going to be a long, ugly term for him and gold is going straight to the moon. It's also going to be interesting to see how the tweeter-in-chief reacts.

The $432 billion deficit last month was near a monthly record but it seems as though much of that spending was pulled forward from August as the latest month shows a nice bounce.

• Fiscal Year to date deficit at $1.966 trillion verus $1.973 trillion a year ago
• Outlates $527 billion vs $689 billion a year ago
• Receipts $360 billion vs $344 billion a year ago
• Net cutoms receipts of $12.836 billion

This number could tad some of the pressure of Treasuries but the month-to-month numbers are tough to get a read on because spending shifts around.

Lane says that if the rise in energy prices persists, maybe it will hit consumption in the autumn but it remains an uncertain issue.

The framing is interesting here because suggests the burden of proof is now on the negative side. Oftentimes, central bankers bake in some weakness in non-energy spending in a price spike but Lagarde this week emphasized the resilience of the economy and consumption.

Now there is a question if the ECB hikes back-to-back  and right now the odds are slightly over 50%.

More comments:

• Wages are not responding much to the energy shock

Middle East tensions continue to escalate. CNN reports that projectiles struck Saudi Arabia’s east-west oil pipeline system, triggering fires at pump stations located beside the pipeline. The extent of the damage—and how long repairs may take—remains unclear, although one U.S. official said the drones originated from Iraq.

Separately, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman reportedly urged President Trump to authorize military strikes against the Houthis as they advanced along Yemen’s Red Sea coast. Trump declined to commit U.S. forces directly but agreed to provide intelligence and targeting support, according to Reuters.

Those headlines would normally be expected to push oil sharply higher—and geopolitical risk has helped lift prices this…

Meta Platforms is back in focus this week after launching Muse, its new personal AI agent on September 8. The announcement itself was not entirely unexpected, as the personal AI agent had been tested internally under the name Project Hatch and reports suggested a launch was approaching. What caught the market’s attention was the breadth of what Muse could do—and, more importantly, the potential for Meta to finally turn its massive AI investment into subscription, shopping and transaction revenue.

Unlike a traditional chatbot that simply answers questions, Muse is designed to take action. It can help organize schedules, draft and send emails, shop, complete forms and make reservations.

Muse is initially available to U.S. adults through a…

The broader US stock indices are squeezing higher after buyers showed up against key support during yesterday’s decline. The rebound is encouraging, but both the S&P and Nasdaq are now trading around their 100- and 200-hour moving averages. Those levels will determine whether buyers can take back more control.

After four consecutive days of declines, the broader US stock indices are squeezing higher despite a fundamental backdrop that remains less than ideal. The latest CPI data showed inflation pressures are still not fully under control, while the University of Michigan inflation expectations added another reason for the Federal Reserve to remain cautious.

The market is now pricing in around a 90% probability of Fed tightening. Normally,…

Today is an anniversary.

Anniversaries are often days of celebration. They are also days of remembrance. Today is not a day to celebrate. It is a day to pause and remember—to remember all those who “slipped the surly bonds of Earth” and touched the face of God.

I personally knew three people who died that day. Ironically, each was named John, and each was working on the upper floors of the World Trade Center.

It is difficult to imagine what they went through. In a strange way, I hope the plane struck where they were working and that their lives ended instantly. The alternative—the thought of them trapped by the intense heat, forced to jump or waiting helplessly for the buildings to collapse—is something I would rather not contemplate.

And…

• Priorwas 51.0
• Current conditions 50.9 vs 51.3 exp
• Expectations 45.8 vs 50.5 exp
• One-year inflation 4.6% vs 4.0% exp
• Five-year inflation 3.4% vs 3.3% exp

Those inflation expectations numbers will further tilt the Fed towards hiking rates next week. I think it's a done deal now and the market has it at 82%.

I'm increasingly conviced that the trade in AI is no longer the model makers or the vendors, but at the user level. This is the RAMP trade that I've been writing about since last year (real assets, margin potential).

Today we get some insight into how it will unfold and the potential.

At this point, you don't need to build the best AI model to make money from artificial intelligence. You might just need a fleet of garbage trucks and a better way to route them.

Waste Connections offers an interesting example of where this could be heading in hard-asset industries. The company estimates its first wave of AI initiatives can deliver roughly 100 basis points of margin expansion by 2030, in comments to CIBC analysts.

What is the plan?

"Pricing…