Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.
If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.
FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.
The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.
Here’s a great chart from BMO showing the consistent jobs growth in the establishment survey compared to the household survey showing net job losses since June.
On both charts, BMO highlights the slowing trend.
On a 6-month moving
average basis, this dragged the household survey’s payrolls growth to just 32k,
and even the establishment survey’s 6-month moving average has slipped to
effectively its lowest level since the pandemic. It’s no secret that labor is the
benchmark lagging indicator, and as such, the trend in hiring holds marginally
more weight than the outright level for monetary policymakers.
The latest jobs report is due Friday, December 8.
This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.
dYdX (DYDX) token price is attempting a recovery rally after a bearish catalyst, the voluminous token unlocks, was priced in. Investors who anticipated the related volatility are sure to have made profit, with more incoming, potentially, amid rising momentum.
dYdX (DYDX) price is up 6% in the last 24 hours, coming on the back of an unlocks event that saw up to 150 DYDX tokens unleashed into the market. The tokens were allocated to investors, founders, employees, advisors and consultants. The token’s price is pulling north, defying the narrative, as investors were likely to cash in for quick profit.
The tokens were unlocked on the dYdX chain, which is not supported by any centralized exchange just yet. Notably, Ethereum to dYdX chain bridge is one way and cannot be converted back to ERC-20.
As reported, many investors continue to keep their tokens bridged within the wETH dYdX smart contract with blockchain analyst Lookonchain reporting that three whale wallets had received tokens from the dYdX foundation had moved 6.81 million DYDX tokens worth up to $21.46 million at the time to Binance exchange.
With three wallets, 0xD21B, 0x63C6, and 0xa70d still collectively holding more than 14 million DYDX tokens, it could mean more seller momentum is underway, despite the current climb.
dYdX price is hinting at a recovery rally, pulling north with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) hinting at the continuation of the trend. Its position above the 50 level points to a strong price strength and if the trajectory continues, a buy signal would soon be executed once it crosses above the signal line (yellow band).
Traders heeding this call could extend the uptrend for dYdX price, potentially catapulting it past the $3.601 resistance level. In a highly bullish case, it could extrapolate into the supply zone extending from $3.722 to $4.003. To confirm the continuation of the uptrend, however, DYDX market value must overcome the mean threshold at $3.862.
DYDX/USDT 1-day chart
On the flipside, with the Awesome Oscillator (AO) indicator showing red histogram bars that are pulling towards the zero level and ultimately into the negative territory, dYdX price could be coiling up for a correction.
The ensuing selling pressure could see dYdX price lose the $2.967 support level to collect the buy-side liquidity residing underneath.
The Swiss Franc (CHF) weakened on Friday after the publication of mixed GDP data for the third quarter. On a YoY basis, the Swiss economy grew by 0.3% in Q3 versus the 0.5% expected, according to the State Secretariat of Economic Affairs. Quarter-on-quarter, however, GDP gained more than expected, helping to balance out the poor YoY result.
Most of the Swiss Franc’s major pairs found a floor on Friday after ferocious sell-offs. USD/CHF may have hammered out a low after a turnaround in bearish sentiment toward the US Dollar. The pair is down 0.65% at 0.8694 at the time of writing. EUR/CHF halted its steep decline after the Swiss GDP data. GBP/CHF likewise seems to have halted its decline.
USD/CHF – the number of Swiss Francs that one US Dollars can buy – is an overall downtrend on the short and medium-term timeframes, and in a long-term range.
Overall, the trend is biased to extend lower. The next major target to the downside is the round number level at 0.8600, followed by the 2023 low of 0.8552. A break below Thursday’s 0.8683 lows would provide bearish confirmation.
US Dollar vs Swiss Franc: Daily Chart
The pair has just found a floor at key long-term range lows and formed a textbook hammer Japanese candlestick pattern on Thursday. If Friday ends bullishly and closes above Wednesday’s open at 0.8780, it would confirm the hammer reversal and probably signal the beginning of a short-term recovery for the pair.
It is possible the pair has formed a measured move price pattern since the October 3 highs (see chart above). Measured moves are three wave patterns that look like large zig-zags. The first and third waves are usually of a similar length. If this is the case, then there is a possibility wave C may have completed. This would suggest a lull in selling pressure and the possibility of a short-term recovery. Given price has not started rising very strongly yet, however, this is still highly speculative, and the trend remains down.
EUR/CHF – the number of Swiss Francs that one Euro can buy – fell off a cliff midweek and into Thursday. As the week comes to a close, however, it has recovered some ground and is now trading just above a major support and resistance line at 0.9520, which held up prices during the summer.
Euro vs Swiss Franc: Daily Chart
The pair is in a downtrend on all timeframes, suggesting bears have the upper hand and prices should continue lower.
A break below the 0.9470 lows would confirm the bearish bias and see prices fall to the next key support area at the 0.9417 October lows.
GBP/CHF – the number of Swiss Francs that one Pound Sterling can buy – is broadly in a sideways trend. Thursday’s sell-off found a floor at 1.1000, a significant long-term support level and the bottom of the range.
The pair is currently trading just above support from the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA, Red).
Pound Sterling vs Swiss Franc: Daily Chart
Buyers and sellers are evenly balanced. A buy signal from MACD on the weekly chart coincided with the October lows. This was followed by the recovery witnessed in late October and early November. There is a chance of this move continuing. A break above the 1.1150 highs and the consolidation zone formed in early November would provide confirmation of further upside, which could see the pair claw its way back up to the long-term range highs just below 1.1500.
The Swiss National Bank (SNB) is the country’s central bank. As an independent central bank, its mandate is to ensure price stability in the medium and long term. To ensure price stability, the SNB aims to maintain appropriate monetary conditions, which are determined by the interest rate level and exchange rates. For the SNB, price stability means a rise in the Swiss Consumer Price Index (CPI) of less than 2% per year.
The Swiss National Bank (SNB) Governing Board decides the appropriate level of its policy rate according to its price stability objective. When inflation is above target or forecasted to be above target in the foreseeable future, the bank will attempt to tame excessive price growth by raising its policy rate. Higher interest rates are generally positive for the Swiss Franc (CHF) as they lead to higher yields, making the country a more attractive place for investors. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken CHF.
Yes. The Swiss National Bank (SNB) has regularly intervened in the foreign exchange market in order to avoid the Swiss Franc (CHF) appreciating too much against other currencies. A strong CHF hurts the competitiveness of the country’s powerful export sector. Between 2011 and 2015, the SNB implemented a peg to the Euro to limit the CHF advance against it. The bank intervenes in the market using its hefty foreign exchange reserves, usually by buying foreign currencies such as the US Dollar or the Euro. During episodes of high inflation, particularly due to energy, the SNB refrains from intervening markets as a strong CHF makes energy imports cheaper, cushioning the price shock for Swiss households and businesses.
The SNB meets once a quarter – in March, June, September and December – to conduct its monetary policy assessment. Each of these assessments results in a monetary policy decision and the publication of a medium-term inflation forecast.
Render (RNDR) price is trading with a bullish bias, boasting a stark 165% climb beginning early September. However, this rally could be running out of steam as the peer-to-peer (P2P) network of connected graphic processing units confronts a formidable supply barrier.
Render (RNDR) price has been trading within a supply zone for almost three weeks now, beginning November 18. Based on technical indicators RNDR is massively overbought with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 74, hinting at a possible correction.
Meanwhile, the supply zone extending from $3.158 to $3.725 continues to impose overhead pressure on Render price. It could precipitate a 20% fall to the $2.825 support level.
Further south, the slump could extend lower for RNDR market value to hit $2.238, or worse, fall below the ascending trendline to bring the $1.317 swing low into focus.
RNDR/USDT 3-day chart
On the flip side, increased buying pressure could see Render price overcome the supply zone to record a candlestick close above the $3.725 resistance level.
It is imperative that Render price breaks and closes above the upper boundary of the supply zone at $3.725 lest the 20% fall becomes imminent. Such a move, where Render price overcomes the $3,725 roadblock, would see the supply zone flipped to a bullish breaker.
It would also mark the invalidation of the bearish thesis and set the tone for RNDR market value to hit the $4.150 resistance level. In a highly bullish case, the token could extend a neck higher towards the $4.607 range high, standing almost 30% above current levels, perhaps even pitching a santa rally.
Shibarium the famous Layer 2 (L2) blockchain network built atop the Ethereum blockchain continue to gain traction even as it links to the Shiba Inu (SHIB) coin. It was developed to serve as a scaling solution for Shiba Inu, enabling faster and cheaper transactions. However, despite the two ecosystems being tied to the hip, their value growth is not showing parity.
Shibarium and the Shiba ecosystem technology and marketing specialist, Lucie, has revealed that the L2 network’s transactions have hit a new all-time high as $5.11 million. She acknowledges increased traffic, soaring gas prices, and more burn, highlighting that “the momentum is coming slowly but surely.”
Meanwhile, it remains unclear where the traffic is coming from but there is speculation that the momentum could soon reflect on on-chain trading volume as well as Bone ShibaSwap (BONE), SHIB and Leash (LEASH) prices, seeing as these ecosystems are all intertwined. This is yet to be seen, particularly for SHIB, whose price remains underwater.
Shiba Inu price continues to consolidate between the $0.00000814 and $0.00000910 levels, with a 0.5% value surge over the last day and 1% pump in the last week. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains above 50, suggesting bulls are leading the SHIB market. However, its flattened outlook shows buying activity remains at a minimum.
Meanwhile, the Awesome Oscillators (AO) are showing red histogram bars and thinly holding in the positive territory. This shows the bears could easily take over. Meanwhile, however, while the odds still favor the bulls, increased buying pressure could see Shiba Inu price extend north, clearing out from the consolidation phase by flipping the $0.00000910 resistance to a support floor.
In a highly bullish case, the gains could extend for Shiba Inu price to shed one zero and test the $0.00001066 resistance level. Such a move would constitute a 30% climb above current levels.
SHIB/USDT 1-day chart
On the flip side, increased selling pressure below current levels could see Shiba Inu price lose the immediate support at $0.00000814, potentially extending the fall to the $0.00000659 support level. In the dire case, the slump could extend for the price to collect buy-side liquidity that continues to reside underneath.
The US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has again presented itself as a menace, this time called out by the court for misleading and cajoling the court with false arguments. The turnout worsens their score sheet and how especially the crypto community perceives them as the latest citing concerns a crypto firm.
SEC lawyers are facing possible sanctions after revelations that they lied to the court concerning “existential dangers” relating to crypto firm Debt Box. Reportedly, the financial regulator convinced the court to grant them a restraining order against the cryptocurrency firm using made-up “evidence” that has now proven to have been made up.
Specifically, the legal representatives lied that Debt Box was trying to move its assets as well as funds belonging to its investors overseas. This influenced the court into issuing a restraining order against te firm and almost freezing its bank accounts in August.
As it turns out, Debt Box never moved funds outside the US. The crypto firm has also demonstrated that its bank accounts remain open, contrary to procedure whenever one plans to move their business to another country.
With the lie, therefore, the SEC is called out for “undermining the integrity of the case proceedings,” and causing “irreparable harm” to the reputation of Debt Box project.
Now, unless the SEC can convince the court, led by Chief Judge Robert J. Shelby of Utah, with a legitimate reason why they lied, the agency could be sanctioned, with a penalty that for now remains unknown.
Notably, like Binance and Coinbase, the SEC also has history levying charges on intention to trade unregistered securities against Dent Box, citing “node licenses.”
Facts aside, the SEC’s track record of attacks against crypto firms has done much in tarnishing its reputation, so much so that crypto proponents have stood up against it for yet another “false” attack on the crypto community.
Ripple lawyer, John E. Deaton, to begin with, says he is not surprised that the financial regulator has been caught lying, adding, “It appears the lawyers at the SEC have made it personal when it comes to crypto cases.”
Any person surprised a federal judge is considering sanctions against the SEC for lying to the Court, in a case involving crypto, has not been paying attention during the last 3 years.
It appears the Lawyers at the SEC have made it personal when it comes to crypto cases. SEC… https://t.co/1rjLjiTvF3
— John E Deaton (@JohnEDeaton1) December 2, 2023
With this, he calls for a subpoena against the financial watchdog. His colleague, Ripple CTO Stuart Alderoty has also listed a detail analysis of troubling patterns seen with the SEC.
A troubling pattern emerges:
– Court finds the SEC demonstrated “hypocrisy” by making inconsistent arguments to the Court and not acting out of a “faithful allegiance to the law.” SEC v Ripple, 7/12/22
– Court agrees that the SEC defaulted on its duty to respond in good faith to…
— Stuart Alderoty (@s_alderoty) December 1, 2023
The two Ripple executives have a longstanding bad perception of the SEC, sprouting from the agency’s numerous attacks not only on payments protocol company, but also on other players in the crypto firm.
It depends on the transaction, according to a court ruling released on July 14:
For institutional investors or over-the-counter sales, XRP is a security.
For retail investors who bought the token via programmatic sales on exchanges, on-demand liquidity services and other platforms, XRP is not a security.
The United States Securities & Exchange Commission (SEC) accused Ripple and its executives of raising more than $1.3 billion through an unregistered asset offering of the XRP token.
While the judge ruled that programmatic sales aren’t considered securities, sales of XRP tokens to institutional investors are indeed investment contracts. In this last case, Ripple did breach the US securities law and will need to keep litigating over the around $729 million it received under written contracts.
The ruling offers a partial win for both Ripple and the SEC, depending on what one looks at.
Ripple gets a big win over the fact that programmatic sales aren’t considered securities, and this could bode well for the broader crypto sector as most of the assets eyed by the SEC’s crackdown are handled by decentralized entities that sold their tokens mostly to retail investors via exchange platforms, experts say.
Still, the ruling doesn’t help much to answer the key question of what makes a digital asset a security, so it isn’t clear yet if this lawsuit will set precedent for other open cases that affect dozens of digital assets. Topics such as which is the right degree of decentralization to avoid the “security” label or where to draw the line between institutional and programmatic sales are likely to persist.
The SEC has stepped up its enforcement actions toward the blockchain and digital assets industry, filing charges against platforms such as Coinbase or Binance for allegedly violating the US Securities law. The SEC claims that the majority of crypto assets are securities and thus subject to strict regulation.
While defendants can use parts of Ripple’s ruling in their favor, the SEC can also find reasons in it to keep its current strategy of regulation by enforcement.
The court decision is a partial summary judgment. The ruling can be appealed once a final judgment is issued or if the judge allows it before then. The case is in a pretrial phase, in which both Ripple and the SEC still have the chance to settle.
Stacks (STX) price is trading with a bullish bias, recording a steady uptrend as part of a recovery rally. However, this optimism could run out of steam soon amid increasing volatility.
Stacks (STX) price has a bit of upside potential left. It could climb 15% at most before a correction, with the position of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 69 shows that STX could soon be overbought once it crosses above the 70 level. This could precipitate a correction.
The Awesome Oscillator (AO) is still in the positive territory, showing the bulls maintain a presence in the STX market. Meanwhile, evidence of increasing volatility can be seen in the Bollinger Bands widening, increasing the risk in the STX market.
With this outlook, early profit-taking, spooked by volatility-related risk could see Stacks price face a rejection from the upper band of the Bollinger Bands, pulling south to break below the midline (yellow band) of the indicator at $0.6227. In the dire case, the slump could extend for the price to lose the support offered by the lower band, which almost confluences with the ascending trendline at $0.4713.
On the flipside, increased buying pressure could see Stacks price breach the upper band of the Bollinger Band indicator at $0.7741 before a possible extension to the $0.8860 resistance level, which could mark the take profit level for the less conservative traders. However, the more conservative ones should consider placing their take profits slightly lower.
If Stacks price breaks and closes above the $0.8860, it would not only invalidate the expected bearish thesis, but also clear the path for a continuation of the trend, potentially going as high as the supply zone extending from $1.0638 to $1.1568. A break and close above the midline of this order block at $1.1123 would confirm the continuation of the uptrend.
Coinbase (COIN) stock has been in an uptrend since late October. COIN stock has gained strength as the US-based exchange gained favor while the sun set on its industry peer and market rival Binance.
Coinbase was touted as the clear chalk, betting favorite, or in simple terms, the best bet. This follows Binance’s and former CEO Changpeng Zhao’s (CZ) capitulation to the US Department of Justice (DoJ). Evidence of this has been reported by on-chain aggregator IntoTheBlock, showing that the exchange’s stock, COIN, is up 300% this year, outpacing both Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH), which are up 130% and 75% year to date.
Price performance: COIN, BTC, ETH, MicroStrategy
The data aggregator indicates that with the 300% value surge this year, trading volume has played a key role in driving the price. Fourth-quarter volumes have already surpassed what was recorded in the third quarter despite there being one full month to go before the final quarter ends.
The COIN chart on TradingView corroborates this outlook, showing a steep climb in COIN’s share price in Q4. Specifically, it shows an 87% value surge since October 30 and a 61% rally since November 1.
COIN is already massively overbought, evidenced by the position of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) above 70. Nevertheless, the inclination of this momentum indicator shows that there could still be more upside potential.
Similarly, the Awesome Oscillator (AO) indicator is in positive territory with green-soaked histogram bars demonstrating that bulls have control of the COIN market.
TradingView: COIN 1-day chart
It should be noted that Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong already pedaled the exchange following Binance’s bubble bursting on November 21, saying, “We now have an opportunity to start a new chapter for this industry…Americans should not have to go to offshore, unregulated exchanges to benefit from this technology.”
Armstrong touted the US as the rightful hub for crypto, highlighting that Coinbase believes in economic freedom and that the US democratic system will eventually get things right.
Since the founding of Coinbase back in 2012 we have taken a long-term view. I knew we needed to embrace compliance to become a generational company that stood the test of time. We got the licenses, hired the compliance and legal teams, and made it clear our brand was about trust…
— Brian Armstrong ️ (@brian_armstrong) November 21, 2023
Ripple lawyer John E. Deaton corroborated the allusion. He attributed the assumption to the fact that the exchange has been named in the surveillance sharing agreement (SSA) of multiple institutional players that have filed for spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETF) with the US Securities & Exchange Commission (SEC), as indicated on NASDAQ’s 19b-4 form.
Nevertheless, Coinbase is not free of its own regulatory troubles. In a recent event, the exchange was found guilty of administrative offense and fined 1 million Rubles in Russia for non-compliance. This is aside from its ongoing contention with the SEC over securities law violations.
Welcome to the new month, same as the old month.
The mood was to buy everything and sell oil, same as it was for all of November. It started out as a quiet one and a good Canadian jobs report moved the loonie into the poll position with it only up 30 pips on the day. From there though, a softer US ISM manufacturing report helped to kick off a wave of USD selling, particularly in USD/JPY.
In addition, stocks began to rip. Powell spoke similarly to Daly and Williams yesterday, which was mildly hawkish but in time the market ignored it and priced in even more rate cuts next year. Fed funds futures are now at 133 bps next year and 70% for the first one in March. That’s aggressive to say the least.
But the bigger picture theme is that we’re going back to the world of low rates and low inflation, not some kind of sticky, 1970s redux. That’s a major change and it’s what is driving everything.
Adding to that was another slump in oil, most of which came after Baker Hughes data showed the US adding more rigs. There’s a creeping feeling that we’re headed for another battle for market share because OPEC isn’t going to cut production again. That could be a big deflationary impulse, at least initially.
The euro didn’t benefit from the USD selling because inflation numbers in Europe are cratering, along with yields. The euro was particularly soft into the London fix, which points to flows and it staged a 50 pips recovery later to finish almost flat but still at the bottom of the pile beside the US dollar.
AUD is going to be one to watch in the year ahead. It was tops today and the housing market there just hasn’t cracked. That could keep the rate hiking cycle going longer but note that Chinese ETF FXI also hit at 52-week low today so maybe that’s an upside risk? Sentiment about China surely couldn’t get much worse.
Have a great weekend.Full Article
In Friday’s session, the EUR/GBP pair was seen at 0.8560 after a downward rally of 0.70%. On the daily and four-hour chart, the cross reached oversold conditions suggesting that an upwards correction may be on the horizon, but the overall trend currently favours the sellers.
The technical indicators on the daily chart are exhibiting robust bearish momentum. The pair’s position beneath the 20, 100 and 200-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs) underscores the dominant downward trend. In addition, the rising red bars of the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) concur with this downward outlook, reinforcing the influence of bearish pressure while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is navigated into oversold territory, a sign typically associated with selling saturation which tends to be followed by an upwards correction.
Examining the four-hour chart on the shorter time frame presents similar bearish signals. The pair shows signs of oversold conditions, as evidenced by the Relative Strength Index (RSI). while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) prints rising red bars.
Support Levels: 0.8530, 0.8515, 0.8500.
Resistance Levels: 0.8600, 0.8630, 0.8670.