Articles

The post Ex-Dividend 21/3/2025 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

Turnaround Thursday is in the making as the jitters have quickly returned to markets today. The Fed managed to calm some nerves yesterday but we’re seeing a reversal of that today with equities slipping across the board. In Europe, the DAX is now down 1.8% and has erased the gains for the week.

Amid the more dour risk mood, we’re seeing the dollar catch a bid across the board with EUR/USD now down 0.6% to 1.0837 and AUD/USD down 1.1% to 0.6286 on the day.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Is the U.S. Economy the Titanic? Or Just a Bumpy Ride?

A political cartoon recently published by Chinese state media, Xinhua, depicts Uncle Sam confidently standing at the bow of the U.S. Economy as it sails straight toward an iceberg labeled “Trumpcession.” The message is clear: America is heading for economic disaster, and its leaders are either blind to it or too arrogant to change course.

It’s an effective piece of propaganda. But before anyone nods in agreement, it’s worth asking a broader question—does the U.S. media do the same thing to China?

The reality is that both sides often push narratives of economic doom for their rivals. Each portrays the other as spiraling toward collapse while reassuring its own people that everything is under control. But what’s real, what’s exaggerated, and what should we actually be paying attention to?

The Art of the Economic Doom Narrative

Xinhua’s cartoon is a perfect example of how propaganda works. It takes a complex economic situation and distills it into a simple, emotionally charged image. The U.S. is supposedly in decline, sinking under the weight of failed policies.

This messaging is not unique to China. Western media regularly pushes similar narratives about China’s economy:

• When China’s GDP growth slows, headlines warn of an imminent collapse.
• When youth unemployment rises, the system is supposedly failing.
• When foreign companies shift some production away from China, it’s framed as the beginning of the end for its manufacturing dominance.

Each side frames the other as weak, unstable, and losing ground. The reality is more complicated.

What China Says About the U.S. (And How Much is True?)

Chinese state media tends to push three core narratives about the United States:

1. The U.S. is drowning in debt and heading for financial collapse

• Reality: The U.S. national debt has surpassed $34 trillion, and rising interest payments pose long-term risks. However, the U.S. still controls the world’s dominant currency, and demand for U.S. debt remains strong.
• Exaggeration: A full-scale economic collapse is unlikely. The dollar remains the global reserve currency, and investors continue to see the U.S. as a safe haven.

2. The U.S. is politically dysfunctional and incapable of governance

• Reality: Partisan gridlock, government shutdowns, and legislative battles create instability.
• Exaggeration: While dysfunction exists, the U.S. system allows for adaptation and correction. Even with political divisions, markets, businesses, and institutions continue to function.

3. The U.S. economy is all hype, no substance—China is the future

• Reality: China has made significant economic gains and leads in key industries like electric vehicles and infrastructure.
• Exaggeration: The U.S. remains dominant in technology, finance, and global markets. Its stock market, venture capital ecosystem, and innovation sectors continue to outpace China’s in many areas.

What the U.S. Says About China (And How Much is True?)

Western media narratives about China’s economy often mirror what China says about the U.S.:

1. China’s real estate bubble will crash its entire economy

• Reality: Evergrande’s collapse and a broader slowdown in the property sector have created serious risks. Real estate accounts for roughly 30% of China’s GDP.
• Exaggeration: While the sector is struggling, the government has tools to prevent a total meltdown. Unlike in the U.S., China’s banking system is heavily state-controlled, reducing the risk of an uncontrolled collapse.

2. China’s population decline means long-term economic decline

• Reality: A shrinking and aging population poses challenges, particularly for economic growth and labor supply.
• Exaggeration: Japan has also faced demographic decline but remains a major economic power. China’s economy is evolving, and automation, AI, and trade diversification could mitigate some of the impact.

3. China is losing its manufacturing dominance

• Reality: Companies are shifting some production to Vietnam, India, and Mexico due to rising costs and geopolitical tensions.
• Exaggeration: China still leads global manufacturing by a wide margin. Its supply chain infrastructure remains unmatched, and foreign investment continues to flow into key industries.

What Actually Matters?

If neither economy is collapsing, what should people focus on instead of propaganda-driven narratives?

• Stock Market Performance: If an economy is truly in decline, markets will reflect it over time.
• Trade Data: Who is exporting more? Who controls key global supply chains?
• Foreign Investment Flows: If investors believe a country is weakening, they will pull their money out.

Both the U.S. and China have economic challenges, but neither is on the brink of collapse. The global economic order is shifting, but not in the black-and-white terms often portrayed.

Trumpcession? Look Beyond the Propoganda

The next time you see a dramatic claim about the U.S. or China—whether it’s the U.S. economy sinking like the Titanic or China’s entire financial system unraveling—take a step back.

Propaganda doesn’t always mean false information. It means selective information, framed to serve a specific agenda.

The best way to understand reality is to look beyond political narratives and follow the real indicators—markets, trade, and capital flows. That’s where the truth lies. Follow ForexLive.com for additional perspectives.

This article was written by Itai Levitan at www.forexlive.com.

I believe he’s alluding to this one here, which is supposed to go into effect on 1 April. It was in response to the steel and aluminum tariffs that came into effect early last week.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Is the U.S. Economy the Titanic? Or Just a Bumpy Ride?

A political cartoon recently published by Chinese state media, Xinhua, depicts Uncle Sam confidently standing at the bow of the U.S. Economy as it sails straight toward an iceberg labeled “Trumpcession.” The message is clear: America is heading for economic disaster, and its leaders are either blind to it or too arrogant to change course.

It’s an effective piece of propaganda. But before anyone nods in agreement, it’s worth asking a broader question—does the U.S. media do the same thing to China?

The reality is that both sides often push narratives of economic doom for their rivals. Each portrays the other as spiraling toward collapse while reassuring its own people that everything is under control. But what’s real, what’s exaggerated, and what should we actually be paying attention to?

The Art of the Economic Doom Narrative

Xinhua’s cartoon is a perfect example of how propaganda works. It takes a complex economic situation and distills it into a simple, emotionally charged image. The U.S. is supposedly in decline, sinking under the weight of failed policies.

This messaging is not unique to China. Western media regularly pushes similar narratives about China’s economy:

• When China’s GDP growth slows, headlines warn of an imminent collapse.
• When youth unemployment rises, the system is supposedly failing.
• When foreign companies shift some production away from China, it’s framed as the beginning of the end for its manufacturing dominance.

Each side frames the other as weak, unstable, and losing ground. The reality is more complicated.

What China Says About the U.S. (And How Much is True?)

Chinese state media tends to push three core narratives about the United States:

1. The U.S. is drowning in debt and heading for financial collapse

• Reality: The U.S. national debt has surpassed $34 trillion, and rising interest payments pose long-term risks. However, the U.S. still controls the world’s dominant currency, and demand for U.S. debt remains strong.
• Exaggeration: A full-scale economic collapse is unlikely. The dollar remains the global reserve currency, and investors continue to see the U.S. as a safe haven.

2. The U.S. is politically dysfunctional and incapable of governance

• Reality: Partisan gridlock, government shutdowns, and legislative battles create instability.
• Exaggeration: While dysfunction exists, the U.S. system allows for adaptation and correction. Even with political divisions, markets, businesses, and institutions continue to function.

3. The U.S. economy is all hype, no substance—China is the future

• Reality: China has made significant economic gains and leads in key industries like electric vehicles and infrastructure.
• Exaggeration: The U.S. remains dominant in technology, finance, and global markets. Its stock market, venture capital ecosystem, and innovation sectors continue to outpace China’s in many areas.

What the U.S. Says About China (And How Much is True?)

Western media narratives about China’s economy often mirror what China says about the U.S.:

1. China’s real estate bubble will crash its entire economy

• Reality: Evergrande’s collapse and a broader slowdown in the property sector have created serious risks. Real estate accounts for roughly 30% of China’s GDP.
• Exaggeration: While the sector is struggling, the government has tools to prevent a total meltdown. Unlike in the U.S., China’s banking system is heavily state-controlled, reducing the risk of an uncontrolled collapse.

2. China’s population decline means long-term economic decline

• Reality: A shrinking and aging population poses challenges, particularly for economic growth and labor supply.
• Exaggeration: Japan has also faced demographic decline but remains a major economic power. China’s economy is evolving, and automation, AI, and trade diversification could mitigate some of the impact.

3. China is losing its manufacturing dominance

• Reality: Companies are shifting some production to Vietnam, India, and Mexico due to rising costs and geopolitical tensions.
• Exaggeration: China still leads global manufacturing by a wide margin. Its supply chain infrastructure remains unmatched, and foreign investment continues to flow into key industries.

What Actually Matters?

If neither economy is collapsing, what should people focus on instead of propaganda-driven narratives?

• Stock Market Performance: If an economy is truly in decline, markets will reflect it over time.
• Trade Data: Who is exporting more? Who controls key global supply chains?
• Foreign Investment Flows: If investors believe a country is weakening, they will pull their money out.

Both the U.S. and China have economic challenges, but neither is on the brink of collapse. The global economic order is shifting, but not in the black-and-white terms often portrayed.

Trumpcession? Look Beyond the Propoganda

The next time you see a dramatic claim about the U.S. or China—whether it’s the U.S. economy sinking like the Titanic or China’s entire financial system unraveling—take a step back.

Propaganda doesn’t always mean false information. It means selective information, framed to serve a specific agenda.

The best way to understand reality is to look beyond political narratives and follow the real indicators—markets, trade, and capital flows. That’s where the truth lies. Follow ForexLive.com for additional perspectives.

This article was written by Itai Levitan at www.forexlive.com.

I believe he’s alluding to this one here, which is supposed to go into effect on 1 April. It was in response to the steel and aluminum tariffs that came into effect early last week.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

The dollar is making some headway in European morning trade as it trades up against the rest of the major currencies bloc with exception of the yen. EUR/USD is beginning to lose altitude as it is now down 0.5% to 1.0840 levels. The pair is facing a switch in the near-term bias as price action now falls through both the 100 and 200-hour moving averages:

GBP/USD is also down 0.4% to 1.2955 currently, facing another rejection of the 1.3000 level this week. Meanwhile, the antipodes are bearing the brunt of the losses today with AUD/USD marked down by 0.9% after a dismal jobs report earlier here. The jobless rate held steady but the employment change number was terribly ugly.

Adding to the weight for the commodity currencies is that we’re starting to see risk appetite get sapped as well. S&P 500 futures are now up by just 0.1% on the day while European indices are retreating with the DAX down by a little over 1%.

Wall Street might have salvaged some pride in trading yesterday but evidently, the jitters are still hard to shake off for now.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

• Eurostoxx flat
• Germany DAX flat
• France CAC 40 -0.1%
• UK FTSE +0.1%
• Spain IBEX flat
• Italy FTSE MIB flat

After the over 3% gains since Friday, the DAX is continuing with the breather from yesterday. Other major indices in Europe are also doing the same it would seem, following at least four straight days of gains coming into today. US futures are sitting higher though, with S&P 500 futures up 0.4% and Nasdaq futures up 0.5% currently.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Global Markets:

•  Asian Stock Markets : Nikkei up 0.34%, Shanghai Composite down 0.09%, Hang Seng down 1.21% ASX up 1.15%
• Commodities : Gold at $3059.35 (0.60%), Silver at $34.5 (0.68%), Brent Oil at $71.35 (0.5%), WTI Oil at $67.51 (0.54%)
• Rates : US 10-year yield at 4.238, UK 10-year yield at 4.6305, Germany 10-year yield at 2.7980

News & Data:

• (USD) Federal Funds Rate 4.5%  to 4.5% expected

Markets Update:

Asia-Pacific markets showed mixed results Thursday as China’s central bank held interest rates steady, following the U.S. Federal Reserve’s decision to keep benchmark rates unchanged.

Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 rose 1.02%, while South Korea’s Kospi gained 0.28%, and the small-cap Kosdaq climbed 0.55%. However, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index dropped 1.36%, and mainland China’s CSI 300 slipped 0.17% after Beijing opted to keep its key lending rates unchanged to balance economic growth and currency stability. The People’s Bank of China maintained the 1-year loan prime rate at 3.1% and the 5-year LPR at 3.6%, unchanged since a cut in October. Japan’s markets were closed for a holiday.

The Federal Reserve held interest rates at 4.25%–4.5% on Wednesday while signaling two potential rate cuts later this year. Their economic outlook included rising inflation and slower growth. Fed Chair Jerome Powell acknowledged recession concerns but downplayed the likelihood of a severe downturn.

U.S. stock futures remained stable after the major indexes rallied in response to the Fed’s outlook. The three key indexes closed higher, with the S&P 500 rebounding from correction territory. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 383.32 points (0.92%) to 41,964.63. The S&P 500 gained 1.08% to end at 5,675.29, while the Nasdaq Composite advanced 1.41% to 17,750.79.

Upcoming Events: 

• 12:00 PM GMT – GBP Official bank Rate

The post Thursday 20th March 2025: Asia-Pacific Markets Mixed as China Holds Rates first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

IC Markets Europe Fundamental Forecast | 20 March 2025

What happened in the Asia session?

The Asia forex session was characterized by cautious trading and moderate volatility, with the U.S. dollar remaining under pressure against major currencies. USD/JPY traded within a technical range, while EUR/USD continued its upward momentum toward 1.0900. GBP/USD held above 1.2950, and AUD/USD moved toward 0.6350, supported by rising commodity prices.

Overall, the session reflected a continuation of trends from the U.S. session, with improved risk appetite and ongoing dollar weakness being the dominant themes.

What does it mean for the Europe & US sessions?

The European and U.S. sessions are poised to continue the trends set in the Asian session, with the U.S. dollar expected to remain under pressure against major currencies. EUR/USD may extend gains above 1.0900, while GBP/USD is likely to fluctuate around the 1.2950 level, influenced by upcoming UK employment data. 

Market focus will be on central bank decisions, particularly the Federal Reserve’s policy announcement and subsequent press conference, which could significantly impact currency movements and overall market sentiment.

 Key economic data releases, including U.S. Retail Sales and the Philadelphia Fed Survey, are anticipated to drive intraday volatility. Risk appetite is expected to remain generally positive, supporting equity markets and riskier assets, while safe-haven demand may keep gold prices elevated above $3,000. 

The Dollar Index (DXY)

Key news events today

Unemployment Claims (12:30 pm GMT)

What can we expect from DXY today?

With the release of U.S. unemployment claims at 12:30 pm GMT, the DXY (U.S. Dollar Index) is expected to experience volatility as traders assess the health of the U.S. labor market. Currently trading near 103.50, the index remains under bearish pressure, holding below key technical levels like the 100-day EMA and 104 resistance.

If unemployment claims come in lower than expected, signaling labor market strength, the DXY could see a short-term rebound toward resistance at 104.10 or higher. Conversely, higher-than-expected claims may reinforce bearish sentiment, pushing the index toward support at 103.20 or potentially testing the psychological level of 102.00.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System voted unanimously to maintain the Federal Funds Rate in a target range of 4.25 to 4.50% on 19 March 2025
• The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2% over the longer run. The economic outlook remains uncertain, and the Committee is attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate.
• Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace. The unemployment rate has stabilized at a low level in recent months, and labor market conditions remain solid. However, inflation remains somewhat elevated.
• The March Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) maintains the projection of two rate cuts in 2025 totaling 50 basis points, consistent with the previous quarter’s forecast.
• GDP growth forecasts were revised upward for 2025 (2.1% vs. 2% in the December projection), while remaining steady at 2% for 2026. PCE inflation projections have been adjusted slightly higher for 2025 (2.5% vs. 2.4%) and 2026 (2.1% vs. 2.0%).
• In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook. The Committee would be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of its goals.
• The Committee will continue reducing its holdings of Treasury securities and agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities. Beginning in April, the Committee will slow the pace of decline of its securities holdings by reducing the monthly redemption cap on Treasury securities from $25 billion to $5 billion. The monthly redemption cap on agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities will be maintained at $35 billion.

• The next meeting is scheduled for 29-30 April 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish

Gold (XAU)

Key news events today

Unemployment Claims (12:30 pm GMT)

What can we expect from Gold today?

Gold (XAU) is expected to experience volatility today as traders await the release of U.S. unemployment claims data at 12:30 pm GMT. Currently trading above $3,000 per ounce, gold remains supported by ongoing global economic uncertainty and geopolitical tensions. The unemployment claims report will be closely watched for its potential impact on Federal Reserve policy expectations and, consequently, on gold prices. A higher-than-expected number of jobless claims could weaken the dollar and potentially boost gold prices, as it may reduce pressure on the Fed to maintain higher interest rates. Conversely, lower-than-expected claims could lead to a short-term dip in gold prices.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bearish

The Australian Dollar (AUD)

Key news events today

Unemployment Rate (12:30 am GMT)

Employment Change (12:30 am GMT)

What can we expect from AUD today?

The Australian dollar (AUD) is poised for volatility today following the release of key employment data. The unemployment rate held steady at 4.1% in February, meeting expectations, while the employment change showed a surprising decrease of 52,800 jobs, significantly below the forecast of 30,000 job gains. This unexpected decline has already caused the AUD to weaken, with AUD/USD dropping 0.3% to 0.6341 post-release.

Given these mixed signals, the AUD is likely to face downward pressure in the short term. Traders may interpret the weak employment figures as a sign of economic softening, potentially increasing expectations for future RBA rate cuts. However, the steady unemployment rate could provide some support.

AUD/USD, currently around 0.6330, may test support near 0.6274 if bearish sentiment persists. Resistance is likely around 0.6365, with a break above potentially targeting 0.6405. Market participants should also consider broader factors influencing the AUD, including global risk sentiment and commodity prices.

Central Bank Notes:

• The RBA reduced the cash rate by 25 basis points to bring it down to 4.10% on 18 February, marking the first rate cut since November 2020.
• Financial conditions are restrictive, which is weighing on demand and is helping to bring down underlying inflation; growth in private demand has been subdued.
• Underlying inflation has moderated over the past three quarters with trimmed mean inflation easing to 3.2% over 2024 and it is expected to reach the 2–3% target range in early 2025, which is sooner than expected at the time of the November Statement.
• The unemployment rate declined a little in late 2024 to 4% with much of the strength in the labour market underpinned by strong employment growth, which has also bolstered household incomes.
• The announcement of tariffs between the United States and other major economies poses challenges to the global outlook but the scale and incidence of the tariffs and their effects remain highly uncertain – which may itself delay some investment until the outlook becomes clearer.
• Economic activity strengthened in China but growth there is still facing structural headwinds while domestic economic growth is forecast to pick up and the labour market is forecast to remain tight.
• If the cash rate follows the market path, underlying inflation is projected to be a little above 2.5% over most of the forecast period. The anticipated recovery of GDP growth and lingering tightness in labour market conditions are expected to sustain some upward pressure on inflation.
• Sustainably returning inflation to target within a reasonable timeframe remains the Board’s highest priority. This is consistent with the RBA’s mandate for price stability and full employment.
• The Board will continue to rely upon the data and the evolving assessment of risks to guide its decisions, paying close attention to developments in the global economy and financial markets, trends in domestic demand, and the outlook for inflation and the labour market.
• The next meeting is on 1 April 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish

The Kiwi Dollar (NZD)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from NZD today?

with no major economic events scheduled, NZD/USD is expected to trade within a technical range, influenced by global risk sentiment, U.S. dollar movement, and commodity market trends. The pair remains supported by a weaker USD, but upside momentum may be limited without fresh economic catalysts.

Key Levels on the H4 Timeframe:

Support at 0.5770, where buyers may step in to maintain bullish momentum.

Resistance at 0.5830, a key barrier that, if breached, could push NZD/USD toward 0.5900.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) agreed to reduce the Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 50 basis points bringing it down to 3.75% on 19 February, marking the fourth consecutive rate cut.
• The Committee assessed that annual consumer price inflation remains near the midpoint of the MPC’s 1 to 3% target band; inflation expectations are at target and core inflation continues to fall towards the target mid-point.
• Economic activity in New Zealand remains subdued and with spare productive capacity, domestic inflation pressures continue to ease. Price and wage-setting behaviours are adapting to a low-inflation environment while the price of imports has fallen, also contributing to lower headline inflation.
• Economic growth is expected to recover during 2025 as lower interest rates will encourage spending, although elevated global economic uncertainty is expected to weigh on business investment decisions. Higher prices for some key commodities and a lower exchange rate will increase export revenues and employment growth is expected to pick up in the second half of the year as the domestic economy recovers.
• Global economic growth is expected to remain subdued in the near term as geopolitics, including uncertainty about trade barriers, is likely to weaken global growth. Global economic activity is also likely to remain fragile over the medium term given increasing geoeconomic fragmentation.
• Consumer price inflation is expected to be volatile in the near term, due to a lower exchange rate and higher petrol prices. Nevertheless, the Committee is well placed to maintain price stability over the medium term.
• The economic outlook remains consistent with inflation remaining in the band over the medium term, giving the Committee confidence to continue lowering the OCR. If economic conditions continue to evolve as projected, the Committee has scope to lower the OCR further through 2025.
• The next meeting is on 9 April 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bearish

The Japanese Yen (JPY)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from JPY today?

The Japanese Yen (JPY) is expected to trade with a slight bearish bias today following the Bank of Japan’s (BOJ) decision to maintain interest rates at 0.5% yesterday. With no major news events scheduled for today, the JPY’s movements will likely be influenced by the aftermath of the BOJ meeting and broader market sentiment.

The BOJ’s cautious stance, citing heightened global economic uncertainty and potential risks from U.S. trade policies, may continue to weigh on the Yen. USD/JPY is currently trading around 148.1, having briefly surpassed the 150.00 level after the BOJ decision

Central Bank Notes:

• The Policy Board of the Bank of Japan decided on 24 January, by an 8-1 majority vote, to set the following guidelines for money market operations for the inter-meeting period:
  1. The Bank will encourage the uncollateralized overnight call rate to remain at around 0.5%.
  2. The Bank will embark on a plan to reduce the amount of its monthly outright purchases of JGBs so that it will be about 3 trillion yen in January-March 2026; the amount will be cut down by about 400 billion yen each calendar quarter in principle.
• Japan’s economy has recovered moderately, although some weakness has been seen in part. Exports and industrial production have been more or less flat while corporate profits have been on an improving trend and business sentiment has stayed at a favourable level.
• The employment and income situation has improved moderately while private consumption has been on a moderately increasing trend despite the impact of price rises and other factors.
• On the price front, the year-on-year rate of increase in the consumer price index (CPI, all items less fresh food) has been at around 3% recently, as services prices have continued to rise moderately, reflecting factors such as wage increases, although the effects of a pass-through to consumer prices of cost increases led by the past rise in import prices have waned.
• Inflation expectations have risen moderately while underlying CPI inflation has been increasing gradually toward the price stability target of 2%. With wages continuing to rise, there has been an increase in moves to reflect higher costs, such as increased personnel expenses and distribution costs, in selling prices.
• Japan’s economy is likely to keep growing at a pace above its potential growth rate, with overseas economies continuing to grow moderately and as a virtuous cycle from income to spending gradually intensifies against the background of factors such as accommodative financial conditions.
• The next meeting is on 19 March 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bearish

The Euro (EUR)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from EUR today?

With no major economic events scheduled, EUR/USD is expected to trade within a technical range, primarily driven by U.S. dollar movement, global risk sentiment, and bond yield fluctuations. The pair remains supported by ongoing USD weakness, but upside potential may be limited without fresh catalysts.

Key Levels on the H4 Timeframe:

Support at 1.0766, where buyers may attempt to maintain bullish momentum.

Resistance at 1.0950, a key level that, if breached, could push EUR/USD toward 1.1000.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Governing Council reduced the three key ECB interest rates by 25 basis points on 6 March to mark the fifth successive rate cut.
• Accordingly, the interest rate on the main refinancing operations and the interest rates on the marginal lending facility and the deposit facility will be decreased to 2.65%, 2.90% and 2.50% respectively.
• The Council acknowledged that monetary policy was becoming meaningfully less restrictive, easing borrowing costs for businesses and households with inflation projected to average 2.3% in 2025, 1.9% in 2026, and 2.0% in 2027, while core inflation also neared the 2% target.
• Although domestic inflation remains elevated due to delayed wage and price adjustments, wage growth is moderating.
• Economic growth forecasts were revised downward to 0.9% for 2025 and 1.2% for 2026, reflecting weak exports and investment.
• The asset purchase programme (APP) and pandemic emergency purchase programme (PEPP) portfolios are declining at a measured and predictable pace, as the Eurosystem no longer reinvests the principal payments from maturing securities.
• The ECB remains data-dependent and will adjust its policy as needed to ensure inflation stabilizes around its 2% medium-term target without committing to a specific rate path.
• The next meeting is on 17 April 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bearish

The Swiss Franc (CHF)

Key news events today

SNB Monetary Policy Assessment (8:30 am GMT)

SNB Policy Rate (8:30 am GMT)

SNB Press Conference (9:00 am GMT)

What can we expect from CHF today?

The Swiss franc (CHF) is poised for heightened volatility today as the Swiss National Bank (SNB) announces its monetary policy decision at 8:30 am GMT, followed by a press conference at 9:00 am GMT. Market expectations are leaning towards a 25 basis point rate cut, which would bring the policy rate down to 0.25% from the current 0.50%. This anticipated move is driven by Switzerland’s low inflation, which has approached the lower end of the SNB’s 0-2% target range.

If the SNB delivers the expected rate cut, the CHF may initially weaken against major currencies. However, the franc’s reaction will largely depend on the SNB’s forward guidance and any comments on potential currency intervention. The recent strength of the euro against the franc, driven by improved eurozone growth prospects, may factor into the SNB’s decision-making process.

Central Bank Notes:

• The SNB eased monetary policy by lowering its key policy rate by 50 basis points, going from 1.00% to 0.50% on 12 December, marking the fourth consecutive reduction.
• Underlying inflationary pressure has decreased again this quarter.
• Inflation in the period since the last monetary policy assessment has again been lower than expected as it decreased from 1.1% in August to 0.7% in November; both goods and services contributed to this decline.
• In the shorter term, the new conditional inflation forecast is below that of September: 1.1% for 2024, 0.3% for 2025 and 0.8% for 2026, based on the assumption that the SNB policy rate is 0.5% over the entire forecast horizon.
• GDP growth in Switzerland was only modest in the third quarter of 2024 with growth in the services sector again somewhat stronger, while value added in manufacturing declined.
• There was a further slight increase in unemployment, and employment growth was subdued while the utilisation of overall production capacity was normal.
• The SNB anticipates GDP growth of around 1% this year while currently expecting growth of between 1.0% and 1.5% for 2025.
• The SNB will continue to monitor the situation closely and will adjust its monetary policy if necessary to ensure inflation remains within the range consistent with price stability over the medium term.
• The next meeting is on 20 March 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish

The Pound (GBP)

Key news events today

Claimant Count Change (7:00 am GMT)

Monetary Policy Summary (12:00 pm GMT)

MPC Official Bank Rate Votes (12:00 pm GMT)

Official Bank Rate (12:00 pm GMT)

BOE Gov Bailey Speaks (12:30 pm GMT)

What can we expect from GBP today?

The British pound (GBP) is expected to experience significant volatility today due to a series of key economic events. The Bank of England (BOE) is widely anticipated to maintain its benchmark interest rate at 4.5% during its March meeting at 12:00 pm GMT. 

Earlier in the day, the Claimant Count Change data at 7:00 am GMT may set the tone for GBP trading, with any surprises potentially influencing market sentiment. Governor Andrew Bailey’s speech at 12:30 pm GMT will also be critical, as markets look for clarity on the BOE’s outlook amid economic uncertainties.

GBP/USD, currently near 1.30, faces resistance at this psychological level. Hawkish signals could push the pair higher, while dovish commentary may lead to a decline toward support levels around 1.2940.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted by a majority of 7 to 2 to reduce the Bank Rate by 25 basis points (bps) to bring it down to 4.50% on 6 February 2025, while two members preferred to reduce it by 50 bps.
• The MPC also voted unanimously to reduce the stock of UK government bond purchases held for monetary policy purposes and financed by the issuance of central bank reserves, by £100B over the next 12 months to a total of £558B, starting in October 2024. On 18 December 2024, the stock of UK government bonds held for monetary policy purposes was £655B.
• CPI inflation was 2.5% in 2024 Q4 as domestic inflationary pressures moderated but remained somewhat elevated while some indicators eased more slowly than expected. Higher global energy costs and regulated price changes are expected to push up headline CPI inflation to 3.7% in 2025 Q3, even as underlying domestic inflationary pressures are expected to wane further.
• While CPI inflation is expected to fall back to around the 2% target thereafter, the Committee will pay close attention to any consequent signs of more lasting inflationary pressures.
• GDP growth has been weaker than expected at the time of the November Monetary Policy Report, and indicators of business and consumer confidence have declined – GDP growth is expected to pick up from the middle of this year.
• The labour market has continued to ease and is judged to be broadly in balance. Productivity growth has been weaker than previously estimated, and the Committee judges that growth in the supply capacity of the economy has weakened.
• Based on the Committee’s evolving view of the medium-term outlook for inflation, a gradual and careful approach to the further withdrawal of monetary policy restraint is appropriate and it will continue to monitor closely the risks of inflation persistence and what the evolving evidence may reveal about the balance between aggregate supply and demand in the economy.
• Monetary policy will need to continue to remain restrictive for sufficiently long until the risks to inflation returning sustainably to the 2% target in the medium term have dissipated further and the Committee will decide the appropriate degree of monetary policy restrictiveness at each meeting.
• The next meeting is on 8 May 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bearish

The Canadian Dollar (CAD)

Key news events today

BOC Gov Macklem Speaks (4:50 pm GMT)

What can we expect from CAD today?

The Canadian dollar (CAD) is expected to trade with moderate volatility today as markets anticipate Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem’s speech at 4:50 pm GMT. Following the recent rate cut to 2.75%, the CAD has faced pressure due to trade tensions with the U.S. and concerns about slowing domestic demand. Macklem’s remarks will be closely watched for insights into the central bank’s outlook on inflation, growth, and future policy adjustments.

USD/CAD, currently near 1.4325, remains in a bearish correction phase, with support at 1.4240 and resistance at 1.4370. A dovish tone from Macklem could weaken the CAD further, potentially pushing USD/CAD toward 1.4375 or higher. Conversely, any hawkish signals may strengthen the CAD and test lower support levels. Overall, CAD movements today will hinge on Macklem’s commentary and broader market sentiment.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Bank of Canada reduced its target for the overnight rate by 25 basis points bringing it down to 2.75% on 12 March; this marked the seventh consecutive meeting where rates were reduced.
• The bank announced its plan to complete the normalization of its balance sheet, ending quantitative tightening, and will restart asset purchases in early March, beginning gradually so that its balance sheet stabilizes and then grows modestly, in line with growth in the economy.
• The Governing Council noted that the economy grew more than expected in the fourth quarter of last year, spurred by past rate cuts but growth is now expected to slow at the turn of the year due to increasing trade conflict with the United States.
• Employment growth strengthened in November through January and the unemployment rate declined to 6.6%. In February, job growth stalled. While past interest rate cuts have boosted demand for labour in recent months, there are warning signs that heightened trade tensions could disrupt the recovery in the jobs market. Meanwhile, wage growth has shown signs of moderation.
• Inflation remains close to the 2% target. The temporary suspension of the GST/HST lowered some consumer prices, but January’s CPI was slightly firmer than expected at 1.9%. Inflation is expected to increase to about 2½% in March with the end of the tax break. The Bank’s preferred measures of core inflation remain above 2%, mainly because of the persistence of shelter price inflation. Short-term inflation expectations have risen in light of fears about the impact of tariffs on prices.
• While economic growth has come in stronger than expected, the pervasive uncertainty created by continuously changing U.S. tariff threats is restraining consumers’ spending intentions and businesses’ plans to hire and invest.
• While monetary policy cannot offset the impacts of a trade war, the Governing Council will carefully assess the timing and strength of both the downward pressures on inflation from a weaker economy and the upward pressures on inflation from higher costs.
• The Council will also be closely monitoring inflation expectations and is committed to maintaining price stability for Canadians by keeping inflation close to the 2% target.
• The next meeting is on 16 April 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bearish

Oil

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from Oil today?

With no major news events scheduled today, WTI crude oil delivery is currently trading at $67.53per barrel, up 0.64% from the previous close. The market shows a slight upward trend, with the May 2025 contract trading at $66.93, also up 0.69%. These prices indicate a modest recovery in oil markets, though they remain well below the year’s high of $87.67. The current price levels suggest ongoing concerns about global economic growth and oil demand, balanced against supply constraints from OPEC+ production cuts.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bearish

The post IC Markets Europe Fundamental Forecast | 20 March 2025 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

The stocks are not scared by the Fed chair’s comments about the economy and policy action going forward and are rising sharply.

The S&P index is now up over 1.5% and the NASDAQ index is up over 2.0%. The small-cap Russell 2000 is up 1.9%

Shares of Nvidia are up 3.94%. Alphabet shares are up 3.08% and Tesla shares are up 6.74%. Software shares are also higher with the IGV ETF of technology software rising by 2.54%

Other gainers today

• Shopify Inc (SHOP): 103.00 ▲+8.99 (+9.56%)
• Robinhood Markets (HOOD): 43.77 ▲+3.67 (+9.15%)
• MicroStrategy (MSTR): 308.37 ▲+25.18 (+8.89%)
• Super Micro Computer (SMCI): 41.19 ▲+3.29 (+8.68%)
• SoFi Technologies (SOFI): 12.88 ▲+0.93 (+7.78%)
• Boeing (BA): 173.65 ▲+12.09 (+7.48%)
• Tesla (TSLA): 240.88 ▲+15.57 (+6.91%)
• Trump Media & Technology Group (DJT): 21.39 ▲+1.30 (+6.47%)
• United Airlines Holdings (UAL): 75.79 ▲+4.45 (+6.24%)

Technically, the S&P is testing/breaking above its 100 hour moving average of 5704.93. Stay above that moving average would be more bullish and would target the 30.2% retracement at 5750.90.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

For some context, Beijing’s efforts to boost household consumption mostly covers subsidies for goods. However, local economists are of the view that while that is helpful, it’s not enough as they need to also focus more on services consumption.

“You may not buy another television this year after you bought one last year, but the services industry is different. It has stickiness and it’s not one-off. I have a specific suggestion that the subsidy scheme could expand to the services sector. This can be done right away.” – Yan Se, deputy director of the Institute of Economic Policy and Peking University

“The service industry will be a main force of employment in the future. Even if we have achieved good results in the manufacturing sector today, we should be aware that what China needs is a strong and innovative manufacturing industry, not a manufacturing industry that accounts for a large share of GDP.” – Chen Yuyu, director of the Institute of Economic Policy at Peking University

“When we talk about insufficient consumption, the key issue is the lack of services consumption. Goods consumption is more or less stable, but services consumption is directly related to the level of urbanisation.” – Liu Shijin, former PBOC adviser

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.