Articles

The Bakers Hughes rig count for the current week shows:

• Total rig up 8 at 590
• Oil rigs + 5 at 488
• NatGas rigs +3 and 97

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

The CNBC retail monitor sees consumer spending cooling, but still higher:

• Retail sales ex auto and gas MoM: +0.5% versus +0.7% last month.
• Retail Sales YoY ex auto and gas: +2.1% versus +0.9% last month
• Core Retail Sales MoM: 0.2% versus +1.0% last month
• Core Retail Sales YoY: on .9% versus 1.7% last month

Looking at the different components 7 were higher vs 10 last month:

Gains were led by:

• Clothing and accessories: +2.1%
• Food services and drinking places: +1.7%.
• Nonstore retailers: +1.5%

Losers were led by:

• Electronics and appliances: -0.9%
• Building and Garden Supplies: -1.3%
• Sporting-goods, hobby, music and bookstores: -2.9%

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Boeing machinists went on strike after rejecting a 25% pay raise.That is shuttered the going manufacturing plant

Here are the main points from the Boeing CFO’s statement

• Strike Impact: Strike will jeopardize recovery, impact production and deliveries

• Cash Conservation: Laser-like focus on actions to conserve cash

• Union Negotiations: Want to get back to the table and reach an agreement

• Production Goals: Getting to 38/month by end of year will take longer

• Inventory Levels: About 70 aircraft left in inventory at shadow factory

• Supply Chain Constraints: Broadly impacting the industry, affecting deliveries

• Specific Production Impacts:

• 787 deliveries below 5/month due to seat shortage

• Lower 777 deliveries due to engine supply issues

• Defense Unit: Q3 margins to be negative

Fitch is now out saying that if the strike is extended it could impact Boeings ratings (cut to junk status).

Shares are down -3.1% at $157.80. For the trading year, the stocks is down close to 40% on the year.

The consistently negative Boeing headlines takes the headline away from Intel. It’s shares are down nearly 61% on the year. The third worst performer of the Dow stocks is Nike down -27.6% in 2024

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

That’s a wrap for the European stock indices for the trading week, and then ended the day with gains, and the week with gains as well.

For the trading day:

• German DAX +0.92%
• France’s CAC, +0.41%.
• UK’s FTSE 100 +0.39%
• Spain’s Ibex, +1.23%
• Italy’s FTSE MIB +0.34%

For the trading week:

• German DAX +2.11%
• France’s CAC +1.54%
• UK’s FTSE 100 +1.12%
• Spain’s Ibex +3.29%
• Italy’s FTSE MIB +0.83%

Looking at European benchmark 10 year yields:

• Germany 2.149%, -5.3 basis points
• France 2.839%, -6.0 basis points
• UK 3.770%, -14.7 basis points
• Spain 2.943%, -8.8 basis points
• Italy 3.513%, -7.2 basis points

As London/European traders had for the exits, US stocks are higher in trading near highs for the day:

• Dow industrial average up 421 points or 1.02% at 41517.50
• S&P index up 37.40 points or 0.67% at 5633.10.
• NASDAQ index up 113.3 points or 0.65% at 17683.94

Russell 2000 up 49.21 points or 2.31% at 2178.64. . That is its largest gain since August 23.

Boeing shares are down -0.50% as machinists go on strike. J.P. Morgan is the other Dow 30 stock negative on the day (-0.60%). IBM, Caterpillar, and Intel lead the gainers with gains of around 2%.

Looking at the US debt market:

• 2-year yield 3.599%, -4.9 basis points
• 5-year yield 3.439%, -2.6 basis points
• 10 year yield 3.662%, -1.7 basis points
• 30 year yield 3.992%, -0.3 basis points

Gold is on pace for another record close. It’s price is up $22 or 0.87% at $2581. For the trading week gold is up 3.37% on a gain of $84

Silver is up $0.96 or 3.24% at $30.91. Silver is up 10.38% this week with a gain of $2.90

Crude oil is trading up $0.30 at $69.38. Crude oil is up 1.92% with a gain of $1.31.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

John Paulsen made a killing by calling the 2008 housing market bubble. A supporter of GOP candidate Trump, he is on CNBC given an interview.

• He says it is a good time for investing
• We did have a bubble in government debt (negative interest rate times), but does not see it anymore
• He favors a 50 basis point cut from the Fed next week
• He thinks the tipping point from the national debt could put pressure on the financial markets (US yields).
• If we continue to run high deficits and increase taxes that would hurt the economy.
• We will see a crash if see 40% capital gains taxes, tax on unrealized gains, and if the Trump tax cuts expire under a Harris presidency.
• If Harris won, he would be more in cash and keep his investment in Gold (gold is at a record level)
• The major reason gold is rising as have less confidence in paper money.
• 10% in gold would be a prudent amount for investors.
• The markets depend on who is elected.
• Thinks stocks will go up, interest go do, earnings go up and have a robust economy if Trump elected President

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

• Prior month 67.9
• University of Michigan consumer sentiment 69.0 versus 68.5 estimate.Best since May 2024
• Current conditions 62.9 versus 61.5 estimate. Last month 61.3. Best since June 2024
• expectations and 73.0 versus 71.0 estimate. Last month 72.1. Best since April 2024
• 1-yesr inflation expectations 2.7% versus 2.8% last month.
• 5- year inflation expectations 3.1% versus 3.0% last month

The final release will be announced in a few weeks.

The inflation expectations for 1 year is back within the middle of the pre-Covid up-and-down range which for the most part was between 2.3% in 3.4%.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

The major US stock indices are opening with modest changes. Coming into the day the S&P and NASDAQ indices are working on a four day winning streak trying to extend that to five for five this week. It is Friday the 13th. Can the markets rise above that jinx?

A snapshot of the market currently shows:

• Dow industrial average is trading up 161.44 points or 0.40% at 41253.47
• S&P index is trading up 14.30 points or 0.26% at 5610.55.
• NASDAQ index is trading up 33 points or 0.199% at 17605.80

The small-cap Russell 2000 is trading up 29.05 points or 1.36% at 2158.45.

Looking at the US debt market, yields are lower with the year leading the way. The 2-10 year and is now around positive by about eight basis points:

• 2-year yield 3.578%, -7.0 basis points
• 5- year yield 3.431%, -3.6 basis points
• 10- year yield 3.657%, -2.3 basis points
• 30- year yield 3.987%, -0.9 basis points

Looking at other markets:

• Crude oil is trading up $0.48 and $69.46. For the trading week, the price is still up 2.10%
• Gold ready to a new record high yesterday and is continuing that trend today. The price is up $21.31 or 0.83% at $2580
• Silver is up another $0.83 or 2.8% at $30.68
• Bitcoin is down around $300 and $57,824.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

The chance for a 50 basis point cut next week by the Fed is now up to 50-50 in volatile trading this morning.

At this time yesterday the chance of a 50 basis point cut was only about 20 – 25%. Then comments from Wall Street Journal’s Nick Timiraos where he talked about the dilemma the Federal Reserve faces in either going big or going low ignited some speculation that he may have gotten a nudge from the Fed.

Overnight former New York Fed Pres. Dudley that thought a 50 basis points is a possibility as well.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Both the S&P index in the NASDAQ index have been higher on each of the trading days this week. That comes after the NASDAQ index fell by -5.77% last week, and the S&P index fell by -4.25% as well.

This week with a 1-day to go:

• S&P index is up 3.46%
• NASDAQ index is up 5.27%

The Dow industrial average is up 1.86% this week after falling -2.93% last week.

The futures this morning are implying a mixed opening

• Dow industrial average up 94 points
• S&P index up 10.01 points
• NASDAQ index is trading down -18 points

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

• Import prices prior month: +0.1%
• Export price prior month: was 0.7% revised to us 0.5%
• Import prices MoM -0.3% % vs -0.2% estimate
• Export prices MoM -0.7% vs -0.1% estimate
• Import prices YoY 0.8% vs 1.6% last month
• Export prices YoY -0.7% vs 1.4% last month

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

• Prior month -0.6%

Details of wholesale sales which rose 0.4% versus -1.1% expected:

• Wholesale sales (excluding petroleum, petroleum products, other hydrocarbons, oilseed, and grain) grew by 0.4% to $82.7 billion in July.
• Sales increased in four of the seven subsectors.
• Growth was led by the agriculture supplies industry group (miscellaneous subsector) and the food, beverage, and tobacco subsector.
• Wholesale sales were 1.1% higher in July compared to the same month one year earlier.
• In volume terms, wholesale sales increased by 0.5% in July

inventories rise by 0.5% versus -0.1% in June:

• Wholesale inventories rose by 0.5% to $127.5 billion in July, following a 0.1% decline in June.
• Increases were recorded in four of the seven subsectors.
• The machinery, equipment, and supplies subsector led the growth, up 1.0% to $39.4 billion, 3.9% higher than a year earlier.
• The motor vehicle and motor vehicle parts and accessories subsector saw a 2.0% increase to $17.3 billion.
• Inventory declines were noted in the personal subsector (-0.8% to $20.1 billion) and the building material and supplies subsector (-0.5% to $22.0 billion).
• The inventory-to-sales ratio remained unchanged at 1.54 in July, indicating the time required to deplete inventories if sales stay constant.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

• Prior quarter: 78.5% revised to 78.6%

Details:

• Canadian industries operated at 79.1% capacity in Q2 2024.
• This is a slight increase from 78.6% in Q1 2024.
• The Q1 2024 capacity utilization was revised up by 0.1 percentage point.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.