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Japan CFTC JPY NC Net Positions down to ¥-76.6K from previous ¥-63.7K

October 16, 2021 07:26   FXStreet   Market News  

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United States CFTC Gold NC Net Positions climbed from previous $182.6K to $185.5K

October 16, 2021 07:26   FXStreet   Market News  

Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.

If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.

FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.

The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.




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Wall Street Close: US stocks finished on the right foot this week, its best since July

October 16, 2021 06:35   FXStreet   Market News  

  • The Dow Jones Industrial, the S&P 500, and the Nasdaq Composite posted gains between 0.7% and 1.6% on Friday.
  • US Retail Sales surprised to the upside, while the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index fell.
  • The USD/JPY reached five-year highs above 114.00.
  • Bitcoin broke the $60,000 barrier, trades at All-Time-Highs.

US equities finished on a higher note in the week, the best since July on the back of solid corporate earnings and a better than expected Retail Sales report. The US T-bond yields rose while the greenback fell.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 1.1% to 35,294.76, up 1.6% on the week. The S&P 500 added 0.7% to 4,471.37 and climbed 1.8% for the week, while the heavy-tech Nasdaq Composite ticked up 0.5%, to 14,897.34, and gained 2.2% for the week.

Mixed US macroeconomic data could not suppress the rise of stocks

US Retail Sales surprisingly increased in September, suggesting resilient demand for goods. The headline showed an increase of 0.7% more than the 0.2% contraction foreseen by analysts. Excluding Autos, it expanded 0.8% higher than the 0.5% estimated.

As coronavirus infections increased in August and September, demand for services decreased as people shifted their spending toward goods. Increasing spending on merchandise would likely exert additional pressure on the supply chains, which have not been able to keep up with growing demand.

Further, the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index fell to its lowest level since 2011. The preliminary reading fell to 71.4 from 72.8 in September, data showed. Estimations were at 73.1. Additionally, according to the report, consumers expect an inflationary reading of 4.8% over the next year.

The US Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback’s performance against a basket of six rivals, lost 0.02% and was last seen at 93.957, while the US 10-year Treasury yield rose five basis points (bps) closed at 1.574%, finishing down for the first week out of five.

In the forex market, the EUR/USD advanced 0.04% to finish at 1.1601, while the GBP/USD closed at five-week highs, at 1.3743 for a 0.52% gain on Friday. The USD/JPY followed the US T-bond 10-year benchmark note coupon, ended at five-year highs, at 114.20, 0.46% up in the day. The AUD/USD held to its five-week highs around 0.7414.

In the commodities market, Gold (XAU/USD) slid 1.59%, finished at $1,767.20 troy ounce, whereas Silver (XAG/USD) followed its footprints, slumped 0.98%, at $23.28. US Crude oil benchmark, Western Texas Intermediate (WTI), heightened 1.22%, at $81.93 per barrel.

In the Crypto environment, at the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at new all-time highs, above $62,000,  on the possibility of a 90% chance that the SEC will approve a Bitcoin ETF while Ethereum is trading around $3,878.

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Ethereum may trounce Bitcoin as ETH next all-time high at $8,000

October 16, 2021 05:02   FXStreet   Market News  

  • Ethereum price shakes off multiple bearish divergence warnings.
  • An incoming explosive move will likely rally the entirety of the altcoin market – even the laggards.
  • Little resistance ahead to stop Ethereum price from breaking the current all-time high.

Ethereum price has finally displayed some clear and bullish strength. The past couple of weeks have been indecisive and almost warned of an impending bull trap – but sellers ultimately were unable or unwilling to do anything. So now the buy-side is in explicit control.

Ethereum price pushes on towards $4,000 and then to new all-time highs

Ethereum price on the $100/3-box reversal Point and Figure chart is very close to completing a double-top at the $3,900 value area. If that occurs, the entry on the Point and Figure chart is the next box above the double-top at $4,000. The market could see a massive rally higher towards the $8,100 value area from that entry point.

$8,100 is a price zone shard by the 161.8% Fibonacci expansion level, and the projected target zone utilizing the vertical profit-taking method in Point and Figure analysis. $4,200 is the 61.8% Fibonacci expansion and may act as a short profit-taking region, but not a solid resistance zone. The combinations of the Fibonacci expansion, vertical profit target, and psychological number provide a strong case for resistance and the new all-time high to occur at $8,000.

ETH/USD $100/3-box reversal Point and Figure Chart.

As Ethereum approaches the bullish entry level at $4,000, bulls will want to monitor any persistent selling pressure. If buyers cannot close Ethereum price at the $4,000 level, then a drop lower to create a double bottom at $2,800 is very probable. The bearish scenario would invalidate any upside trade ideas and likey confirm a strong bear market.

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USD/JPY rallies to three-year highs above 114.00 amid risk-on market sentiment

October 16, 2021 04:33   FXStreet   Market News  

  • USD/JPY soars during the week, despite US dollar weakness across the board.
  • Rising US T-bond yields underpins the USD/JPY pair.
  • US Retail Sales upwardly surprised, rose by 0.7%, more than expectations.

The USD/JPY extends its one-and-a-half month rally, advances 0.47% during the New York session, trading at 114.21 at the time of writing. As portrayed by US equity indexes rising between 0.46% and 1.12%, positive market sentiment in the financial markets weighs on the Japanese yen.

Additionally, the US T-bond yields, which correlate positively with the USD/JPY pair, are climbing. The 10-year US Treasury yield is up to six basis points, sitting at 1.577%, boosts the greenback against the yen.

Meanwhile, upbeat US macroeconomic data lend a hand to the greenback. Surprisingly, US Retail Sales for September rose by 0.7%, higher than the 0.2% contraction foreseen by economists. Excluding autos and gas, sales expanded by 0.7%, better than the 0.5% in the previous month.

Furthermore, the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index reading was 71.4, worse than the 72.8 estimated by investors, the second-lowest reading since 2011, as consumers grew more concerned about current conditions and the economic outlook.

USD/JPY Price Forecast: Technical outlook

The USD/JPY had witnessed a 400 pip rally since October 4, when it was trading around 110.50. The Relative Strenght Index (RSI) at 75, depicts that the upward move is overextended, as the RSI showed oversold conditions since October 11. On that same day, the 50-day moving average (DMA) crossed over the 100-DMA, giving a boost to the pair, as the correct order for moving averages in an uptrend is the shorter-time frames moving average, over the longer time frame ones. 

That said, the USD/JPY first resistance level is October 4, 2018,  high at 114.54, which is a crucial price level, unsuccessfully tested four times in four years. A break above the latter can clear the way for further gains, exposing key resistance levels like January 27, 2017, high at 115.37, followed by January 9, 2017, high at 117.52.

On the other hand, failure at 114.00 could open the door for a leg-down in confluence with the current RSI oversold conditions. The first of the critical support levels to be tested would be the October 13 high at 113.79, followed by the October 12 low at 112.99, and then the October 8 high at 112.24.

KEY ADDITIONAL LEVELS TO WATCH

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ForexLive Americas FX news wrap: Never underestimate the US consumer

October 16, 2021 04:21   Forexlive Latest News   Market News  

Forex news for North American trade on October 15, 2021:

Markets:

  • Gold down $27 to $1768
  • US 10-year yields up 5.1 bps to 1.57%
  • WTI crude oil up 94-cents to $82.25
  • S&P 500 up 32 points to 4470
  • NZD leads, JPY lags

The US retail sales report was a strong surprise but the market reaction was minimal. Later, flows appeared into the London fix with a distinct element of USD selling. That knocked USD/JPY down to 114.00 from 114.42 and hit the dollar elsewhere as well. It later recovered most of the gains.

At the same time, you’d be surprised that dollar wasn’t stronger if you were looking at bonds, particularly the front end. Yesterday’s fat finger in twos still had people talking and some were certainly wishing they’d sold more into it as rates moved up 4 bps to touch 0.40% for the first time since the pandemic. Yields rose all the way out the curve, particularly in 5s which are pricing in a rate hike cycle.

EUR/USD was chopping as it ranged between 1.1590 and 1.1610, tapping each edge three times and then finishing the day nearly flat.

Cable was much more lively as it rose to 1.3745, gaining nearly three-quarters of a cent on the day.

The real action continues to be in yen crosses as they added another strong day with GBP/JPY above the January 2018 high in yet another breakout. Yen crosses — including CHF/JPY all gained at least 0.5%.

Forex news for North American trade on October 15, 2021:

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US stocks finish a strong week with a flourish

October 16, 2021 04:09   Forexlive Latest News   Market News  


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United States Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Count climbed from previous 433 to 445

October 16, 2021 03:56   FXStreet   Market News  

Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.

If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.

FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.

The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.




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US 2-year yields rise above 0.40% for the first time since the pandemic

October 16, 2021 03:26   Forexlive Latest News   Market News  

Bonds continue to price in hikes

The bond market is having a rethink on inflation and interest rates today. US 2-year yields are up 4.5 basis points today to 0.40%. It’s the highest since the start of the pandemic as the front end of the curve looks to make a move.

A September 2022 hike is now 80% priced in and every time a central banker expresses some doubt in the ‘transitory’ ethos, that ticks ever-so-higher.

This is a big mountain to climb but we’ll get there eventually.

Bonds continue to price in hikes

It’s also a painful reminder that back in the 1980s, you could get one of these paying 16%. Before the financial crisis you could get 5-6%.

Invest in yourself. See our forex education hub.

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GBP/JPY rallies at five-year highs, braces to 157.00

October 16, 2021 03:26   FXStreet   Market News  

  • The British pound continues its rally against the Japanese yen on the back of BoE’s hiking rates expectations.
  • The market sentiment is upbeat, boosting risk-sensitive currencies like the Sterling.
  • Japanese Finance Minister said that currency stability is “very important” and will keep an eye on the forex market moves.

The GBP/JPY extends its seven-day rally during the New York session, advances 1.09%, is trading at 157.14 at the time of writing. As witnessed by the US equity stocks rising between 0.48% and 1.13%, risk-on market sentiment in the financial markets weighs on the safe-haven yen. 

The British pound and the New Zealand dollar are the stronger currencies in the forex market, whereas the Japanese yen is the laggard. Factors like risk appetite and central bank divergence exert additional pressure on the yen.

Since Monday of this week, the British pound has been on the right foot against the yen. Over the last weekend, members of the Bank of England expressed concerns about higher energy prices, which in part spurred consumer prices that passed the levels tolerated by the central bank. That said, Michael Saunders, and Governor Andrew Bailey, talked openly about the need for higher rates to contain inflationary pressures.

In the meantime, Finance MinisterShunichi Suzuki said that currency stability is “very important” and that Japan’s government will scrutinize the economic impact of the forex market moves. Further added, that “we will continue to closely watch currency market moves and their impact on the economy.”

GBP/JPY Price Forecast: Technical outlook

The weekly chart depicts that the cross-currency is at five-year highs, approaching the June 2016 swing highs, around 160.10, which is the next resistance for the GBP/JPY pair. 
The GBP/JPY is in an uptrend, confirmed by the Relative Strenght Index (RSI) at 66, aiming higher, accelerating toward oversold levels, but with room left, for another leg-up. However, to resume the upward trend, it will need a close above 157.00.

GBP/JPY Key additional levels to watch

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AUD/USD consolidating gains at five-week highs above 0.7400

October 16, 2021 03:26   FXStreet   Market News  

  • The aussie extends rally to five-week highs at 0.7440.
  • A higher risk appetite has boosted the Australian dollar.
  • AUD/USD is heading towards 0.7450.

The Australian dollar has rallied for the fifth consecutive day on Friday, extending its rebound from 0.7170 lows in late September, to five-week highs at 0.7440, before pulling back to consolidate in the 0.7415/20 area.

Risk appetite has boosted the AUD

An improved market sentiment, with the stock markets advancing for the second consecutive day on the back of upbeat quarterly earnings by major banks and better than expected US retail sales have favored the risk-sensitive Aussie, weighing on safe assets like the US dollar.

Beyond that, the relaxation of COVID-19 restrictions in Sydney, the country’s most populated city after a four-month lockdown has improved optimism. Australian authorities have pledged that the quarantine required for vaccinated travelers that arrive in New South Wales would not be necessary since November 1, since the New South Wales state is set to reach an 80% first-vaccination dose rate on Saturday.

Furthermore, the Chinese central bank has finally assured that Evergrande’s risks to the financial system are “controllable” and unlikely to spread which has eased concerns about a chain reaction affecting the financial sector of the world’s second-largest economy.

AUD/USD heading towards 0.7450 – UOB

According to the FX analysis team at UOB, the pair is heading towards 0.7450: “There is no change in our view even though AUD could consolidate for a couple of days first before heading towards 0.7450. On the downside, a break of the ‘strong support’ at 0.7350 (level was at 0.7325 yesterday) would indicate that the current positive phase has come to an end.”

Technical levels to watch

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Cardano Price Prediction: ADA ready to explode to $4

October 16, 2021 02:56   FXStreet   Market News  

  • Cardano price returns to bullish conditions, denying further sell-side control
  • An imminent breakout towards new all-time highs is likely.
  • Little resistance ahead, but bulls should remain wary.

Cardano price has failed to capitalize on the movement generated by its closest peers, Bitcoin and Ethereum. As a result, very tight and challenging trading ranges have been the norm for Cardano, but that may change here soon.

Cardano price targets a breakout above $2.45

Cardano price has a very bullish set up on its $0.05/3-box reversal Point and Figure chart. If a new column of Xs forms and hits the $2.45 entry, three things happen simultaneously. First, a double-top is broken, confirming an entry signal. Second, the entry confirms a complete Bear Trap Point and Figure pattern. Finally, the entry at $2.45 is a breakout above the dominant bear market angle.

The breakout could be the very beginning of a new bullish expansion phase for Cardano price. The initial target on the breakout is based on the horizontal profit target method in Point and Figure analysis. $4.05 is the initial range and would be a new all-time high.

However, the current trading conditions still have a significant bearish weight. Therefore, Cardano price must remain above the $2.05 value area. If it fails to hold $2.05 as support, a return to the $1.80 trading range is likely.

ADA/USD $0.05/3-box Point and Figure Chart

Bulls should also be aware of some resistance on any breakout near the prior swing high and high volume node at $2.80. While the momentum of the breakout may make any near-term resistance moot, $2.80 has been a consistent source of trouble for Cardano, and it would certainly be odd for it not to provide some resistance in the future.

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