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Japan June consumer confidence index 32.1 vs 34.1 prior

June 29, 2022 13:02   Forexlive Latest News   Market News  

  • Latest data released by the Japanese Cabinet Office – 29 June 2022
Justin Low


Justin Low

Wednesday, 29/06/2022 | 04:57 GMT-0

29/06/2022 | 04:57 GMT-0

  • Prior 34.1

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USD/JPY leans bullish above 136.00 on upbeat options market signals

June 29, 2022 13:02   FXStreet   Market News  

USD/JPY picks up bids towards the weekly high around 136.40 ahead of Wednesday’s European session amid the market’s anxiety ahead of key data/events, which in turn underpins the US dollar buying.

Also read: USD/JPY slips beneath 136.00 on upbeat Japan Retail Trade, softer yields, focus on Fed’s Powell

In addition to the cautious mood ahead of the key monetary policy discussions among the central bankers from the US, the UK and European Union (EU) at the ECB Forum, options market signals for the USD/JPY also propel the pair’s prices of late.

That said, the highest daily risk reversal (RR) for the USD/JPY in eight days, as per the ratio between call and put premiums, keeps the pair buyers hopeful.

That said, the daily RR snapped a five-day downtrend while rising to 0.110 by the end of Tuesday, the highest since June 17, whereas the weekly print also prints gains for the first time in three, up 0.030 by the press time.

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Gold Price Forecast: $1,800 – two steps away, will Powell power XAUUSD bears?

June 29, 2022 12:56   FXStreet   Market News  

  • Gold Price cracks the critical daily support line at $1,820.25
  • Powell could fuel a fresh upswing in the USD even amid weaker yields.
  • XAUUSD sellers are likely to retain control, with $1,800 in sight.  

Gold Price failed to sustain the rebound and turned south in the American session on Tuesday, having booked the second straight daily loss. In doing so, the bright metal cracked the critical demand area, although growing recession fears helped put a floor. The bullion staged a decent comeback in the first half of the day, as the dollar remained broadly sluggish amid a positive shift in risk sentiment. Risk flows returned after China announced a reduction in the quarantine period for international travelers, as Beijing and Shanghai reported zero covid cases after four months. The metal climbed to test the $1,830 level amid broad dollar weakness while the uptick in US Treasury yields capped the rebound.

The tide, however, turned in favor of the dollar bulls and smashed gold price back to the $1,820 support after the US Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence index hit its lowest since February 2021, dampening investor optimism and reviving worries over the recession. Surging oil prices rekindled inflation fears, which added to the dour mood and boosted the greenback at gold’s expense.

Gold Price is struggling to find demand so far this Wednesday, as traders appear non-committal and refrain from placing any directional bets on the metal ahead of the Policy Panel of the heads of the Fed, ECB and BOE at the annual ECB Forum on central banking. The discussions between the key central bank officials will hold the key to shaping up the market expectations of policy normalization, which could have a significant impact on the non-yielding gold.

Apart from the ECB Summit, the US final GDP revision and OPEC+ decision will be closely eyed for fresh cues on the broader market sentiment.

Gold Price Chart: Daily

As observed on the daily chart, gold price closed Tuesday below the rising trendline support at $1,820.25, confirming a two-week old pennant breakdown.

The downside break opens floors towards the $1,800 threshold. However, Friday’s low of $1,1817 and June 15 low of $1,808 could come to the rescue of bulls before.  

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) continues to hover below the midline, suggesting that sellers will remain in charge going forward.

On the flip side, buyers need to recapture the pennant support turned resistance, now at $1,822, above which a decent bounce towards the $1,838 area cannot be ruled out. That price zone is the convergence of the short-tern critical 21-Daily Moving Average (DMA) and the pennant resistance.

Further up, the mildly bullish 200 DMA at $1,845 will challenge additional recovery moves. The bearish 50 DMA at $1,853 will be the last line of defense for XAU sellers.

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Asian Stock Market: Tumbles on downbeat US Consumer Confidence, focus is on Fed Powell

June 29, 2022 12:56   FXStreet   Market News  

  • Asian equities have witnessed a sell-off, following the footprints of Wall Street.
  • The downbeat US Consumer Confidence has dented the market sentiment globally.
  • A stable US PCE price-wise is itself a damaging catalyst for the risk-perceived currencies.

Markets in the Asian domain have witnessed a steep fall as the downbeat US Consumer Confidence has crossed the boundaries and has dented the sentiment of investors globally. The downwardly revised US Consumer Confidence brought a significant sell-off in the Wall Street on Tuesday and a similar pattern has been followed in the Asian indices. The US Conference Board reported the Consumer Confidence at 98.7, lower than the estimates of 100, and the former release of 103.2.

At the press time, Japan’s Nikkei225 tumbled 1.18%, China A50 surrendered 1.00%, Hang Seng plunged 1.51%, and Nifty50 eased 0.66%.

A downbeat US Consumer Confidence displays less confidence of the US individuals in the growth prospects of the US economy. No doubt, the soaring fossil fuels, and food prices have cut the growth forecasts and the households are facing the headwinds of lower-valued ‘paychecks’. This also results in lower consumer spending on durables and consumer products and eventually a slump in aggregate demand.

Meanwhile, the US dollar index (DXY) is hovering below 104.50 and is awaiting the speech from Federal Reserve (Fed) chair Jerome Powell. Fed Powell is expected to sound hawkish while providing hints of likely monetary policy action in July.  Apart from that, the US economic data holds significant importance. The release of the US Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) will hog the limelight. The market consensus states an unchanged US PCE at 7% on an annual basis, which is also vulnerable for the US Consumer Confidence. A significant slump in the US PCE price-wise is the need of the hour.

On the oil front, oil prices have witnessed a minor correction after a firmer recovery. The black gold is holding itself above $111.00 in the early European session. The supply constraints will continue to stay prolonged as the OPEC cartel is unable to fill the restricted supply from Moscow.

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ICYMI: Citi month-end flow model points to dollar buying

June 29, 2022 12:51   Forexlive Latest News   Market News  

There was already a hint of that in trading yesterday but there’s still today and tomorrow to go, so just be wary that month-end flows could make things a little muddy in the sessions ahead.

Citi’s model hints at a stronger USD buying signal than the historical average. From yesterday:

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North Rhine Westphalia June CPI +7.5% vs +8.1% y/y prior

June 29, 2022 12:33   Forexlive Latest News   Market News  

  • Latest data released by Destatis – 29 June 2022
Justin Low


Justin Low

Wednesday, 29/06/2022 | 04:28 GMT-0

29/06/2022 | 04:28 GMT-0

  • Prior +8.1% y/y

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USD/TRY grinds higher towards 17.00 on Turkish inflation woes, Fed’s Powell eyed

June 29, 2022 12:29   FXStreet   Market News  

  • USD/TRY picks up bids to reverse early-day losses, keeps previous day’s rebound from three-week low.
  • Fears of higher inflation in Turkey recall pair buyers ahead of the key ECB Forum event.
  • Turkey’s agreement to lift opposition over Sweden and Finland’s joining of NATO probe upside moves.
  • Fed’s Powell needs to defend hawkish policies and hint at something more to keep USD on the front foot.

USD/TRY extends the previous day’s recovery moves to 16.67 during early Wednesday morning in Europe. The Turkish lira (TRY) pair’s latest rebound could be linked to the fresh fears of higher inflation in Turkiye, as well as a cautious mood ahead of important monetary policy discussions among the central bankers from the US, the UK and the European Union (EU) at the ECB Forum.

That said, the latest Reuters poll said that Turkiye’s inflation is expected to rise above 78% in June and it was seen declining to just below 70% by end-2022. The survey also mentioned the reason by stating, “As pricing behavior deteriorates across the board due to a weak currency and a loose monetary policy.”

It’s worth noting that the nation’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) rallied to 73.5% in May while refreshing a multi-year high. However, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan refrains from rate hikes and rather pushes qualitative measures termed as ‘liralization’ to defend the national currency. The next reading for Turkish CPI will be for May and will be out on Monday.

On the other hand, a jump in the one-year US consumer inflation expectations joined hawkish Fed bets to renew the US dollar’s safe-haven demand. The US Conference Board (CB) Consumer Confidence Index dropped for the second consecutive month in June, to 98.7 versus 100.0 expected and 103.2 in May. In doing so, the widely followed consumer sentiment gauge dropped to the lowest level since February 2021. Further details revealed that the one-year consumer inflation rate expectations climbed to 8% from May’s revised print of 7.5. It should be noted that the US trade deficit dropped to the lowest in a year, to $104.3 billion, per the latest release for May.

It should be noted that Turkey’s step back from a hard stand over Sweden and Finland’s joining of North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) challenge the USD/TRY buyers. On the same line could be the recently softer US Treasury yields amid recession fears.

Looking forward, the US Core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) for Q1 2022, expected to remain unchanged at 5.1%, will be important. On the same line will be the final readings of the US Q1 GDP, which is likely to confirm a 1.5% Annualized contraction. Above all, the central bankers’ discussions at the ECB Forum will be the key for the market players to watch for clear directions.

Technical analysis

The USD/TRY pair’s corrective pullback remains elusive until crossing the previous support line from early May, around 17.00 by the press time. Alternatively, 50-DMA restricts the immediate downside of the pair at around 16.07.

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AUD/USD Price Analysis: Stays on the way to 0.6880 support

June 29, 2022 12:26   FXStreet   Market News  

  • AUD/USD holds lower ground near weekly low, prints three-day downtrend.
  • MACD, RSI challenge corrective pullback, sustained trading below the key SMAs favor bears.
  • Monthly low, 61.8% FE adds to the downside filters, 200-SMA holds gate for buyer’s entry.

AUD/USD remains pressured around 0.6900, despite the latest rebound from intraday low heading into Wednesday’s European session.

The Australian dollar (AUD) pair’s weakness could be linked to the downside RSI (14), not oversold, as well as bearish MACD signals.

Also favoring the quote’s bearish bias is the sustained trading below the 100 and 200-SMAs, not to forget a weekly descending resistance line.

That said, an upward sloping support line from June 14 restricts the AUD/USD pair’s immediate downside near 0.6880.

Following that, the monthly low of 0.6850 precedes the 61.8% Fibonacci Expansion (FE) of June 02-16 moves, near 0.6800, will be in focus.

Alternatively, recovery remains elusive below the aforementioned immediate descending resistance line, at 0.6960 by the press time.

Should AUD/USD buyers manage to cross the 0.6960 hurdle, the 100 and 200 SMAs, respectively near 0.6990 and 0.7050, will be crucial to watch before confirming the upside momentum.

Overall AUD/USD pair’s recent bounce appears  nothing more than the corrective pullback amid a sluggish session.

AUD/USD: Four-hour chart

Trend: Further weakness expected

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USD/INR Price News: Skids below 79.00 as DXY turns sideways, oil slips, Fed Powell eyed

June 29, 2022 12:26   FXStreet   Market News  

  • USD/INR has failed to sustain the all-time-high recorded above 79.00.
  • The DXY is displaying back and forth moves ahead of Fed Powell.
  • Oil prices have corrected a little, and the upside remains favored on prolonged supply constraints.

The USD/INR pair has slipped below the psychological support of 79.00 at the open, however, the upside remains imminent on broader strength in the US dollar index (DXY). The asset recorded an all-time high of 79.09 on Tuesday and a follow-up corrective move due to profit-booking has dragged the asset lower.

The DXY is trading sideways in a narrow range of 104.36-104.52 as investors are awaiting the speech from the Federal Reserve (Fed) chair Jerome Powell and US economic data. As the Fed is fully committed to bringing price stability to the US economy, Fed chair Jerome Powell may dictate a hawkish ideology on interest rate policy for July.

One thing that may disturb Fed policymakers now is the downbeat Consumer Confidence. The US Conference Board has reported the economic data at a 16-month low, which is 98.7 lower than the estimates of 100 and the former release of 103.2. Soaring oil and food prices have dented the sentiment of the US households. A lower Consumer Confidence results in lower consumption from the households, which may also reduce the confidence of the Fed in dictating extremely strict quantitative measures.

On the oil front, oil prices have witnessed some long liquidation after a firmer recovery. The black gold is holding itself above $111.00 and a minor correction will sooner turn into an impulsive move. The supply constraints will continue to stay prolonged as the OPEC cartel is unable to fill the restricted supply from Moscow.

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US Independence Day Holiday Trading Schedule 2022

June 29, 2022 12:02   ICMarkets   Market News  

Dear Trader,

Please find our Updated trading schedule for the US Independence Day Holiday on Monday, 4th July 2022 below. All times mentioned below are Platform time (GMT +3).

Forex & Crypto :

Precious Metal:

Spot Energy:

Indices:

Energy Futures:

Soft Commodities Futures:

Indices Futures:

Bonds Futures:

Equities:

 

Kind regards,

IC Markets

 

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Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD eyes further downside towards $1,800, Fed Chair Powell in focus

June 29, 2022 11:49   FXStreet   Market News  

  • Gold bounces off weekly/daily low but stays pressured during three-day downtrend.
  • Fears of inflation/recession weigh on prices, headlines concerning China, market’s inaction probe bears.
  • US Q1 2022 PCE details, central bankers’ panel discussion at the ECB Forum will be crucial for fresh impulse.

Gold Price (XAU/USD) remains on the back foot around $1,820, despite the recent bounce from intraday low. In doing so, the yellow metal prints a three-day downtrend as traders await the week’s key data/events amid a sluggish Asian session on Wednesday.

The bullion prices refreshed their weekly bottom on breaking a short-term symmetrical triangle the previous day as market sentiment soured amid recession/inflation fears. However, cautious optimism surrounding China seems to challenge the gold sellers of late.

“China will halve to seven days its COVID-19 quarantine period for visitors from overseas, with a further three days spent at home, health authorities said on Tuesday,” per Reuters. The news also joined the latest comments from the US Deputy Commerce Secretary Don Graves who said, “A clear US response on China tariffs is coming soon,” per Bloomberg TV.

Elsewhere, a jump in the one-year US consumer inflation expectations joined hawkish Fedspeak to renew the US dollar’s safe-haven demand. The US Conference Board (CB) Consumer Confidence Index dropped for the second consecutive month in June, to 98.7 versus 100.0 expected and 103.2 in May. In doing so, the widely followed consumer sentiment gauge dropped to the lowest level since February 2021. Further details revealed that the one-year consumer inflation rate expectations climbed to 8% from May’s revised print of 7.5. It should be noted that the US trade deficit dropped to the lowest in a year, to $104.3 billion, per the latest release for May.

Amid these plays, the US 10-year Treasury yields snapped a two-day uptrend whereas Wall Street closed in the red. The S&P 500 Futures, however, print mild gains and it seems to probe the gold bears of late.

Moving on, the US Core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) for Q1 2022, expected to remain unchanged at 5.1%, will precede the central bankers’ discussions at the ECB Forum to offer important insights. Should Fed Chair Jerome Powell manage to defend hawkish polic moves, the XAU/USD selling may gain extra strength.

Technical analysis

Gold bears remain hopeful as a clear downside break of the two-week-old symmetrical triangle joins descending RSI (14) line (not oversold) and bearish MACD signals.

Adding to the metal’s bearish bias is a successful break of the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement (Fibo.) of May 16 to June 12 upside.

That said, the XAU/USD bears are on their way to the 78.6% Fibo. surrounding $1,805. However, the $1,800 threshold may test the further downside before directing the bullion prices towards the yearly low marked in May around $1,786.

Alternatively, the stated triangle’s support line, now resistance around $1,820, precedes the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level near $1,823 to restrict the short-term upside of gold prices.

Following that, the weekly high near $1,830 and the 50% Fibo. level surrounding $1,835 can entertain XAU/USD bulls. However, a convergence of the 100-SMA and the aforementioned triangle’s upper line, near $1,837-38, appears the key hurdle to break for the buyers to retake control.

Gold: Four-hour chart

Trend: Further downside expected

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