Articles

Is the US pandemic benefits expiration starting to bite?

Is the US pandemic benefits expiration starting to bite?

73236   September 18, 2020 21:33   Forexlive Latest News   Market News  

Some real-time numbers are sagging

A surprise political shift today came from the White House, which encouraged Senate Republicans to give ground on a stimulus deal with Democrats. Could that be because they’re seeing signs of economic weakness creep in?

Pantheon today shows a few charts that show some very early evidence that might be the case:

Some real-time numbers are saggingRestaurant, airline, hotel and mobility data all had a Labor Day bump but is now largely below August levels. That could be a holiday effect but it’s something worth watching.

JPMorgan’s card spending data is still above August levels but it’s also cooled in the past week and is 20% below Feb levels.

US card spending

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Canada July retail sales +0.6% vs +1.0% expected
Canada July retail sales +0.6% vs +1.0% expected

Canada July retail sales +0.6% vs +1.0% expected

73221   September 18, 2020 20:35   Forexlive Latest News   Market News  

Canadian retail sales for July 2020:

  • Prior was +23.7%
  • Advance July estimate was +0.7%
  • July ex autos -0.4% vs +0.5% prior
  • Early Statistics Canada estimates suggest that retail sales increased by 1.1% in August

That ex-autos number is worrisome. Canadian government benefits weren’t cut off in July but spending struggled.

For bank trade ideas, check out eFX Plus

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Canada August Teranet house price index +5.7% y/y vs +5.5% prior
Canada August Teranet house price index +5.7% y/y vs +5.5% prior

Canada August Teranet house price index +5.7% y/y vs +5.5% prior

73220   September 18, 2020 20:33   Forexlive Latest News   Market News  

House price index from Teranet and National Bank

  • Prior was +5.5% y/y
  • Index at 240.43 vs 239.01 prior
  • Index up 0.6% m/m

The 12-month gain was led by Ottawa-Gatineau (12.6%), Halifax (11.1%),
Montreal (10.1%), Hamilton (8.4%) and Toronto (7.3%). Lagging the
countrywide average were Victoria (3.3%), Winnipeg (3.3%), Vancouver
(3.2%) and Quebec City (2.4%). Down from 12 months earlier were Edmonton
(−2.4%) and Calgary (−2.5%).

For bank trade ideas, check out eFX Plus

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US current account balance for 2Q -$170.5 billion vs. -$160 billion estimate
US current account balance for 2Q -$170.5 billion vs. -$160 billion estimate

US current account balance for 2Q -$170.5 billion vs. -$160 billion estimate

73219   September 18, 2020 20:33   Forexlive Latest News   Market News  


HIGH RISK WARNING: Foreign exchange trading carries a high level of risk that may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage creates additional risk and loss exposure. Before you decide to trade foreign exchange, carefully consider your investment objectives, experience level, and risk tolerance. You could lose some or all of your initial investment; do not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. Educate yourself on the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial or tax advisor if you have any questions.


ADVISORY WARNING: FOREXLIVE™ provides references and links to selected blogs and other sources of economic and market information as an educational service to its clients and prospects and does not endorse the opinions or recommendations of the blogs or other sources of information. Clients and prospects are advised to carefully consider the opinions and analysis offered in the blogs or other information sources in the context of the client or prospect’s individual analysis and decision making. None of the blogs or other sources of information is to be considered as constituting a track record. Past performance is no guarantee of future results and FOREXLIVE™ specifically advises clients and prospects to carefully review all claims and representations made by advisors, bloggers, money managers and system vendors before investing any funds or opening an account with any Forex dealer. Any news, opinions, research, data, or other information contained within this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment or trading advice. FOREXLIVE™ expressly disclaims any liability for any lost principal or profits without limitation which may arise directly or indirectly from the use of or reliance on such information. As with all such advisory services, past results are never a guarantee of future results.

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Canada wholesale trade sales for July 4.3% vs. 3.5% estimate
Canada wholesale trade sales for July 4.3% vs. 3.5% estimate

Canada wholesale trade sales for July 4.3% vs. 3.5% estimate

73218   September 18, 2020 20:33   Forexlive Latest News   Market News  


HIGH RISK WARNING: Foreign exchange trading carries a high level of risk that may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage creates additional risk and loss exposure. Before you decide to trade foreign exchange, carefully consider your investment objectives, experience level, and risk tolerance. You could lose some or all of your initial investment; do not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. Educate yourself on the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial or tax advisor if you have any questions.


ADVISORY WARNING: FOREXLIVE™ provides references and links to selected blogs and other sources of economic and market information as an educational service to its clients and prospects and does not endorse the opinions or recommendations of the blogs or other sources of information. Clients and prospects are advised to carefully consider the opinions and analysis offered in the blogs or other information sources in the context of the client or prospect’s individual analysis and decision making. None of the blogs or other sources of information is to be considered as constituting a track record. Past performance is no guarantee of future results and FOREXLIVE™ specifically advises clients and prospects to carefully review all claims and representations made by advisors, bloggers, money managers and system vendors before investing any funds or opening an account with any Forex dealer. Any news, opinions, research, data, or other information contained within this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment or trading advice. FOREXLIVE™ expressly disclaims any liability for any lost principal or profits without limitation which may arise directly or indirectly from the use of or reliance on such information. As with all such advisory services, past results are never a guarantee of future results.

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The North American consumer is the focus of the economic calendar today

The North American consumer is the focus of the economic calendar today

73216   September 18, 2020 20:17   Forexlive Latest News   Market News  

The Friday calendar is an interesting one

The Friday calendar is an interesting one

We got some modest disappointment in August US retail sales this week and now we turn back the clock a month for July Canadian retail sales. The consensus is +1.0% after a 23.7% jump in June. Given the dated nature of the report, I wouldn’t expect a big response from CAD but Statistics Canada has been offering more real-time estimates of data so look out for a headline about August.

That report is due at the bottom of the hour along with US current account numbers, Canadian house prices from Teranet and Canadian wholesale trade sales. Don’t expect a market reaction on any of them.

But do expect a market reaction to the September UMich consumer sentiment survey. These numbers have been stubbornly stuck to the pandemic lows and economists only see a small improvement to 75.0 from 74.1.

In terms of Fed talk we get Bullard (1400 GMT), Bostic (1600 GMT) and Kashkari (1900 GMT).

For bank trade ideas, check out eFX Plus

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Thought for the day – Don’t ignore market sentiment

Thought for the day – Don’t ignore market sentiment

73211   September 18, 2020 19:49   Forexlive Latest News   Market News  

What’s the market mood?

What's the market mood?

Sentiment analysis is simply understanding the current mood of the market.  

The market, like a person, is subject to different moods. Correctly reading the market’s mood is crucial in making profit. Now, if you misread a person’s mood you may end up accidentally feeling the effect of a person’s bad mood 

In a similar way, if you are unaware of the market’s mood or sentiment, then you may end up with a losing trade.

Do you have a good grasp of market sentiment? Make sure you know what the market mood each and every single day that you are trading. 

Check out an article I did on some case studies of sentiment based trades here. 

For bank trade ideas, check out eFX Plus

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UK sells 1and 3 month bills today with negative yield

UK sells 1and 3 month bills today with negative yield

73206   September 18, 2020 19:33   Forexlive Latest News   Market News  

First time since 2017, via Bloomberg

  • This follows last weeks sale of 6 months bills at -0.0005%. 

Aside from Dec 2020 contract implied yields on all of short sterling contracts out to September 2023 are below zero with 2 and 5 yr gilt yields also having negative yields. 

A BoE shift to negative rates increasingly priced in. 

10 year UK gilt yields at 0.167. 

First time since 2017, via Bloomberg
For bank trade ideas, check out eFX Plus

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Forexlive European FX News 18 Sep – NZD leads the pack on Finance Minister interview

Forexlive European FX News 18 Sep – NZD leads the pack on Finance Minister interview

73203   September 18, 2020 19:17   Forexlive Latest News   Market News  

NZD leads the way 

Other markets

  • FTSE -0.16%
  • Euro Stoxx +0.08%
  • Dax +0.35%
  • CAC -0.22%
  • Gold +0.42%
  • US oil +0.27%

The session started with USD weakness helping push the major pairs up. The day promised potential volatility with quadruple witching in play, but that was illusory.  See here for an explanation on what this is.  

NZD leads the way 

The NZD was the star performer for the session assisted by New Zealand Finance Minister Grant Robertson who suggested that a stronger than expected economic recovery might be likely to temper a dovish Reserve Bank of New Zealand. However, analysts still expect the RBNZ to move to Negative Interest Rates next year. RBNZ meet Wednesday 23 next week. 

Close behind was the JPY and that was despite the risk on tilt. This took USDJPY down through the lows of the day. Could this be due to ‘Suganomics’ which Eamonn reported on earlier? Bloomberg report that Japanese sentiment has been boosted toward the Yen thanks to a pledge from new PM Yoshihide Suga for deregulation and reform. 

The EURUSD was sat under a large option of over €1 billion euros. The option had a 98% call bias split, so that should be acting like a magnet pulling prices up from 1.1850 at the start of the session. At the moment EURUSD is doing little and stayed in a tight 30+ pip range. 

The DXY flirted with a key intraday trend line for most of the session doing little in sympathy with the EURUSD. 

Well that’s all folks. A pretty low volatile end to the week despite the quadruple witching. It’s been a pleasure. Justin will return next week after a well deserved break. I will maintain my daily post and will of course update everyone on how I managed my gold longs from FOMC. Have a great weekend

It’s been fun! 

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NZD outperforms on Finance Minister’s positivity 

NZD outperforms on Finance Minister’s positivity 

73198   September 18, 2020 18:51   Forexlive Latest News   Market News  

NZD

NZD, RBNZ

The New Zealand Dollar lead the pack today assisted by New Zealand Finance Minister Grant Robertson who suggested that a stronger than expected economic recovery might be likely to temper a dovish Reserve Bank of New Zealand. However,  analysts still expect the RBNZ to move to Negative Interest Rates next year. RBNZ meet Wednesday 23 next week. 

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USDJPY makes fresh lows
USDJPY makes fresh lows

USDJPY makes fresh lows

73192   September 18, 2020 18:40   Forexlive Latest News   Market News  


HIGH RISK WARNING: Foreign exchange trading carries a high level of risk that may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage creates additional risk and loss exposure. Before you decide to trade foreign exchange, carefully consider your investment objectives, experience level, and risk tolerance. You could lose some or all of your initial investment; do not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. Educate yourself on the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial or tax advisor if you have any questions.


ADVISORY WARNING: FOREXLIVE™ provides references and links to selected blogs and other sources of economic and market information as an educational service to its clients and prospects and does not endorse the opinions or recommendations of the blogs or other sources of information. Clients and prospects are advised to carefully consider the opinions and analysis offered in the blogs or other information sources in the context of the client or prospect’s individual analysis and decision making. None of the blogs or other sources of information is to be considered as constituting a track record. Past performance is no guarantee of future results and FOREXLIVE™ specifically advises clients and prospects to carefully review all claims and representations made by advisors, bloggers, money managers and system vendors before investing any funds or opening an account with any Forex dealer. Any news, opinions, research, data, or other information contained within this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment or trading advice. FOREXLIVE™ expressly disclaims any liability for any lost principal or profits without limitation which may arise directly or indirectly from the use of or reliance on such information. As with all such advisory services, past results are never a guarantee of future results.

Full Article

How does a bill become law in the UK?

How does a bill become law in the UK?

73188   September 18, 2020 18:21   Forexlive Latest News   Market News  

PM Johnson proceeds with Bill

The path of  any bill in the UK can be long and protracted. This will be the case with Johnson’s Internal Markets Bill because of the controversy surrounding whether it is or is not a breach of international law. 

Here is an infograph highlighting the ‘ping pong’ nature of the bill as it will be batted between the House of Commons and the House of Lords. The recent agreed amendment may smooth the path through the two houses, but the EU are not punching the air with joy over the bill.

The main point is that a bill takes time to get through the UK bureaucratic system.

PM Johnson proceeds with Bill

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Rewind