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US officials warn Iran may take months to yield under a naval blockade, despite Trump saying the war is near an end, with talks stalled and demands on uranium enrichment still far apart.

Summary:

• Trump says the Iran war is “very close to over,” but negotiations remain stalled with wide gaps between both sides.
• The US is pressing for a 20-year enrichment freeze and removal of uranium, while Iran is offering far less.
• Officials and analysts warn Iran could take months or longer to feel enough economic pain from the blockade to concede.
• The US is prepared to sustain the naval blockade indefinitely, though it may strain military resources.
• Talks via Pakistan have yielded no breakthrough, with both sides still far apart.
• Internal and external pressures are building, including risks to global energy flows and US domestic politics.

The United States is intensifying economic and military pressure on Iran through a naval blockade, even as President Donald Trump signals confidence that the war is nearing its end, highlighting a growing disconnect between political messaging and the realities of negotiation.

Trump has framed the conflict as close to resolution, suggesting Iran is eager to strike a deal. However, recent talks have produced little progress, with both sides maintaining firm and largely incompatible positions. Washington is demanding that Iran freeze uranium enrichment for at least 20 years and remove enriched material from its territory, while Tehran has offered only a shorter-term freeze and insists on retaining its stockpile.

Despite the administration’s optimism, officials and analysts caution that the blockade strategy may take significant time to have its intended effect. Some estimate it could take months or longer (WSJ, gated) before economic pressure meaningfully weakens Iran’s negotiating position, underscoring the risk of a prolonged standoff.

The US military appears prepared for that scenario. A senior official indicated the Navy could maintain the blockade indefinitely, although concerns remain that doing so would strain resources and reduce US flexibility in other strategic theatres such as the Pacific.

Meanwhile, diplomatic efforts remain in limbo. Vice President JD Vance is on standby to return to Pakistan for further talks, but no concrete plans have been set following earlier discussions that ended without breakthroughs.

Complicating matters further, Iran’s leadership has signalled resistance to pressure tactics, while hardline elements within the regime appear to be gaining influence following recent military losses. At the same time, regional allies such as Saudi Arabia are urging caution, warning that escalation could spill over into broader disruptions across key global energy routes.

For now, the US strategy hinges on whether sustained pressure can force concessions—but the timeline for that outcome remains highly uncertain.

The “months-long” pressure timeline suggest expectations of a prolonged energy risk premium. Oil volatility and shipping disruptions remain key, while any delay in a deal extends upside risks to inflation and global growth uncertainty.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

• Fed’s Beige Book: Overall activity showed slight to modest growth in 8 of 12 districts
• ECB sources report: Policymakers wary of April rate hike
• Japan’s Katayama said she spoke with Bessent about currencies
• US and Iran said to be weighing two-week ceasefire extension
• US EIA weekly crude oil inventories -913K vs +154K expected
• US NAHB April housing market index 34 vs 37 expected
• Ceasefire in Lebanon will be approved tonight – report
• Fed’s Hammack signals “patient policy” as Fed navigates five-year inflation miss
• Canada February manufacturing sales +3.6% vs +3.8% expected
• Empire Fed April manufacturing index +11.0 vs -0.5 expected

Markets:

• Gold down $46 to $4749
• WTI crude oil down 28-cents to $90.99
• US 10-year yields up 2.5 bps to 4.28%
• AUD leads, JPY lags

It was another big day in the market as the Nasdaq rose for an 11th consecutive day. The combination of hopes for peace in the Middle East combined with AI optimism has led to a powerful rebound. The question now is whether there is some retracement or whether the FOMO afterburners kick in during earnings season.

• S&P 500 up 0.8% — first record closing high since Jan 27
• Nasdaq up 1.6% to first record closing high since October 29
• Russell 2000 +0.1%
• DJIA -0.2%
• Toronto TSX Comp +0.2%

The numbers here highlight some of the divergence as tech is carrying this rally. That shows that it’s that sector and a re-leveraging in it that’s mostly driving the move. The real economy stocks didn’t do much on Wednesday, though they’ve all had a big bounce from the lows.

What worries me is that we’ve seen big moves in things like quantum computing stocks that are a fair proxy for retail and options activity. That can sometimes be a leading indicator but it’s fragile.

For what it’s worth, there wasn’t much validation of the stock market move elsewhere. Treasury yields were 1-3 bps higher across the curve and oil was down just 28-cents while gold was lower. The FX market did see some positive bids in commodity currencies but the euro was flat. Australian jobs data is due later.

It looks like we will need a fresh catalyst or actual peace deal to move the needle from here but earnings have also been good and financials have been bid on strong numbers all week. The commentary from banks was also generally good for the real economy and the economic data since the war began has been constructive. Tomorrow we get numbers on initial jobless claims and the Philly Fed.

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

I posted a preview of the Australian jobs report here:

• For the Reserve Bank: despite a softening labour outlook, inflation risks tied to the energy shock remain the dominant concern. As a result, upcoming labour data is unlikely to materially shift near-term policy expectations.

China’s first-quarter GDP is expected to show a modest pickup in growth, supported by resilient exports, though the outlook for the remainder of 2026 is increasingly clouded by external risks and weak domestic demand.

Economists broadly expect the January–March expansion to come in around 4.7–4.8% year-on-year, up from 4.5–5.0% in the fourth quarter, marking a tentative rebound after growth slowed to a multi-year low late last year. On a quarterly basis, activity is seen improving slightly to around 1.3%, suggesting some stabilisation in momentum at the start of the year.

However, the underlying detail points to a still-fragile recovery. March activity indicators are expected to remain soft overall, with retail sales forecast to slow to around 2.5% year-on-year, highlighting persistent weakness in household consumption. Fixed-asset investment is also seen subdued at roughly 1.9% year-to-date, reflecting ongoing caution among businesses and local governments.

Industrial production is a relative bright spot, projected to grow around 5.5% year-on-year, underpinned by export-oriented manufacturing and pockets of strength in high-tech sectors. Even so, export momentum is expected to cool as the year progresses, particularly if global demand weakens.

The property sector remains a key drag. Nationwide housing prices across China’s 70 major cities are expected to stay in negative territory, though any signs of a slower pace of decline would offer tentative encouragement that the sector is nearing a bottom.

Looking ahead, economists expect growth to ease through the rest of 2026, with full-year GDP projected around 4.6%. The ongoing Middle East conflict, via higher energy costs and pressure on global demand, is seen as a growing headwind, squeezing corporate margins and complicating the recovery.

Policy support is likely to remain measured. With growth tracking within Beijing’s 4.5–5.0% target range, authorities may opt for incremental easing—such as reserve requirement cuts—rather than large-scale stimulus, while continuing to prioritise consumption support over the medium term.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

This is nothing really new as AP reported hours ago that a two-week ceasefire was on the table. At the moment, all the headlines are pointing towards peace.

Despite that, there are some more equity bids on this and oil is ticking lower. The Nasdaq is now up 1% in its 11th (!) day in a row of gains.

About an hour ago, Axios reported that the US and Iran made progress in talks on Tuesday, moving closer to a framework agreement to end the war.

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

• Prior was 38
• Single family 37 vs 42 prior
• Prospective buyers 22 vs 25 prior
• Sales expectations 42 vs 49 prior

The US housing industry is in a deep recession and rising rates following the Iran war aren’t going to help. If there’s any good news it’s that borrowing costs have ticked down since the ceasefire. We are a long way from the Fed getting back to rate cuts though and the latest indications are that the economy is solid.

The NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI), published monthly by the National Association of Home Builders, is one of the most widely followed gauges of sentiment in the U.S. residential construction industry. Derived from a survey that NAHB has conducted for more than 40 years, the index polls roughly 900 home builders nationwide, asking them to rate current single-family home sales as good, fair, or poor, to assess expected sales over the next six months, and to evaluate the traffic of prospective buyers. Scores from these three components are combined into a seasonally adjusted composite index, where 50 is the dividing line — readings above 50 indicate that more builders view conditions favorably, while readings below signal a negative outlook.

The HMI has remained stubbornly below 50 throughout 2025 and into 2026, reflecting persistent affordability headwinds from elevated mortgage rates, high construction costs, and stretched home prices relative to incomes. The index closed 2025 at 39 in December, then slid to 37 in January 2026 as all three subcomponents declined. February brought a further dip to 36, a five-month low, with future sales expectations falling to 44 — well below the breakeven threshold. March saw a modest rebound to 38, with all three components ticking higher: current sales rose to 42, expected sales improved to 49, and buyer traffic edged up to 25.

Throughout this period, roughly two-thirds of builders have reported offering sales incentives, and over a third have been cutting prices — averaging around 6% — underscoring the degree to which affordability constraints continue to weigh on demand despite lower mortgage rates relative to a year ago.

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

• Prior was +3081K
• Gasoline -6328K vs -2077K expected
• Distillates -3122K vs -2437K expected

The oil market has bigger things to worry about than this but there are around 100 VLCC’s heading to the US Gulf, so there is going to be a very large call on US oil supplies in the next few weeks. WTI crude oil is down 17-cents to $91.10 today.

The Weekly Petroleum Status Report (WPSR), published by the U.S. Energy Information Administration, is one of the most closely watched energy data releases in the world. Issued every Wednesday, the report provides a comprehensive snapshot of the U.S. petroleum balance sheet, covering crude oil and refined product inventories, refinery inputs and utilization rates, domestic production, imports, exports, and product supplied — a proxy for demand. The data are collected from refiners, pipeline operators, bulk terminal operators, and other industry participants, and are widely used by traders, analysts, and policymakers to gauge the supply-demand balance in oil markets.

In the report for the week ending April 3, 2026, U.S. commercial crude oil inventories rose by 3.1 million barrels to 464.7 million barrels, well above the market expectation for a build of roughly 700,000 barrels. At that level, crude stocks sat about 2% above the five-year average for the time of year — a notable shift from earlier in March, when they were running slightly below average. The build came amid a string of weekly inventory increases, with crude stocks rising by 6.2 million, 6.9 million, 5.5 million, and 3.1 million barrels in successive weeks from mid-March through early April, reflecting a combination of softer refinery runs and elevated imports.

On the products side, gasoline inventories fell by 1.6 million barrels to 239.3 million barrels, while distillate stocks dropped 3.1 million barrels to 114.7 million barrels. Refinery utilization edged down to 92.0%, with crude inputs averaging 16.3 million barrels per day.

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Al Mayadeen cites a senior “Iranian political-security source” who says that a ceasefire in Lebanon will be approved tonight. The source also says it’s “possible” that Netanyahu may move to undermine it.

The ceasefire is said to be for one week but will extend with the Iran-US ceasefire, which was reported by the Associated Press to be under discussion to extension, citing mediators.

This is another sign that everything is leading towards peace but with a 10-day rally in the Nasdaq, I’d argue that peace is +90% priced in already and note that the toughest discussions are always at the end. I can’t imagine it will be a completely smooth process and every day of missing oil production hurts.

S&P 500 futures are up 0.1% and have ticked higher following this report.

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

• Prior was -0.2
• New orders +19.3 vs +6.4 prior
• Prices paid +51.0 vs +36.6 prior
• Employment +9.8 vs +5.8 prior

Separately, the US was out with import/export price data:

• Import prices +0.8% vs +2.0% exp
• Export prices +1.6% vs +1.5% exp

Those numbers align with PPI data released earlier this week that were surprisingly benign.

The Empire State Manufacturing Survey, published monthly by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, is one of the earliest regional manufacturing indicators released each month and is closely watched as a barometer of broader U.S. industrial activity. The survey polls approximately 200 manufacturing executives across New York State, who report changes in 11 indicators — including general business conditions, new orders, shipments, inventories, employment, and prices — relative to the prior month, as well as their expectations six months ahead. The main headline index, general business conditions, is a standalone question rather than a weighted average of the other components. Readings above zero signal expansion, while negative readings indicate contraction.

After slipping into negative territory in late 2025, the index turned positive in January 2026, jumping to 7.7 from a revised -3.7 in December as new orders and shipments both improved. February’s reading edged down slightly to 7.1, with activity continuing to expand modestly and employment rising.

The March reading, however, disappointed markets, falling to -0.2 — well below the consensus forecast of around 3 to 4 — marking the first negative print of the year. New orders showed modest growth at 6.4, but shipments contracted at -6.9 and delivery times lengthened significantly. Input price pressures eased notably, with the prices paid index declining sharply by 13 points to 36.6, though it remained elevated. Despite the soft headline number, manufacturers expressed strong optimism about the six-month outlook, and capital spending plans climbed to a multi-year high of 21.6.

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

• Prior was -3.0% (revised to -3.1%)
• Wholesale sales vs +2.0% vs +2.3% expected
• Prior wholesale -1.0% (revised to -1.1%)

The Monthly Survey of Manufacturing (MSM), conducted by Statistics Canada, is a key indicator of the health of Canada’s industrial sector. The survey covers approximately 6,500 manufacturing establishments classified under the North American Industry Classification System (NAICS), tracking sales of goods manufactured, inventories, unfilled orders, new orders, and capacity utilization rates. Data are reported in current Canadian dollars and adjusted for seasonal variation, with constant-dollar estimates also provided to strip out price effects. The survey draws on both direct responses from manufacturers and modelled estimates derived from Goods and Services Tax filings for smaller establishments.

Manufacturing is a significant contributor to the Canadian economy, and the MSM data are widely used by the Bank of Canada, federal and provincial governments, and private-sector analysts to monitor the business cycle and inform policy decisions.

In the most recent data, manufacturing sales fell 3.0% in January 2026 to $68.7 billion, driven overwhelmingly by the transportation equipment subsector, which dropped 18.2%. Motor vehicle sales plunged 38.9% to their lowest level since September 2021, as several major auto assembly plants in Ontario extended their winter shutdowns into January for model changeover retooling and production line maintenance. Machinery manufacturing also declined 5.6%. Overall, sales fell in 11 of 21 subsectors. In constant dollars, the decline was even steeper at 3.9%. Inventories, meanwhile, rose 0.9% to $120.6 billion, pushing the inventory-to-sales ratio up to 1.76 from 1.69 in December — a sign that goods were accumulating relative to weakening shipment activity.

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

• Full report here

AP News is reporting that mediators are working to extend the two-week ceasefire between the US and Iran before it expires next week on April 22. Despite a US naval blockade and renewed threats from Tehran, regional officials report that both nations have reached an agreement in principle to continue diplomatic efforts.

The primary obstacles to a lasting peace involve disputes over Iran’s nuclear program, control of the Strait of Hormuz, and compensation for wartime damages. While Trump has expressed optimism that a deal is close, other US officials remain cautious.

The markets are already looking past the war and as long as the ceasefire holds, the downside will likely remain limited. Nevertheless, the risk that the conflict resumes at any moment is still there, so traders will need to stay nimble. In the meantime, US and Iran are replenishing their miliary arsenals.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

Headlines:

• Markets keep the calm awaiting a potential US-Iran deal
• Gold remains supported amid US-Iran deal optimism as real yields extend the drop
• US president Trump: I think the war with Iran can be over very soon
• Trump says he thinks extending the ceasefire will not be necessary
• Mediators move closer to extending US-Iran ceasefire – AP News
• US sends thousands more troops to Middle East as Trump seeks to squeeze Iran – WaPo
• IRGC warns to stop all imports and exports in the Gulf of Oman if US continues blockade
• Iran reportedly to use alternative ports to bypass US blockade of Strait of Hormuz
• Japan poised to release around 36 million barrels from its oil reserves
• US president Trump: If Powell doesn’t leave, I have to fire him
• France March final CPI +1.7% vs +1.7% y/y prelim
• Eurozone February industrial production +0.4% vs +0.3% m/m expected

Markets:

• Oil prices bounce back from early lows, WTI crude up 1.1% to $92.25
• US dollar little changed, hold more mixed on the day
• European stocks more cautious, S&P 500 futures flat amid a more tepid mood
• US 10-year yields up 1 bps to 4.265%
• Gold down 0.7% to $4,805, Silver down 1.0% to $78.70
• Bitcoin down 0.1% to $74,054

After the risk rally yesterday, markets are keeping calmer with a bit of a more tepid mood in trading so far today.

US president Trump continues to reaffirm that the war will be coming to an end “very soon”, with traders and investors eyeing a positive outcome from the next round of talks on Thursday.

However, there are some mixed signals with US reportedly sending over more troops to the Middle East while Iran’s military issued threats of disrupting shipping in the Gulf of Oman and Red Sea so long as the US blockade continues.

That is all keeping markets on edge as we look to US trading later, with oil prices bouncing back from the lows since Asia trading. With open interest shifting more towards the June contract, the front-month May contract for WTI crude may not be the best indicative price for the commodity but is still the one in play right now.

That fell to near $87 in Asia trading earlier but has bounced back strongly to around $92.50 currently. In similar vein though, the June contract also fell to just below $85 before jumping back up to sit a little under the $90 mark at the moment.

As for the broader risk mood, things are keeping fairly tepid with equities not doing a whole lot. US futures are keeping near unchanged levels with S&P 500 futures flat on the day. Meanwhile, major indices in Europe are looking fairly cautious today with the DAX also flat and CAC 40 down 0.6% though.

As a reminder, the S&P 500 is just 0.5% away from a fresh record high. So, that gives a better idea about where we stand in having priced in the optimism towards the end of the conflict in the past week.

In the major currencies space, the dollar is sitting little changed with there being not much to work with in European morning trade. EUR/USD is down 0.1% to 1.1777 while USD/JPY is up 0.1% to 158.95 and AUD/USD up just 0.2% to 0.7140.

Precious metals are taking a light knock though with gold down 0.7% to $4,805 while silver is down 1.0% to $78.70 on the day.

It’s still all on US-Iran developments at the moment.

This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

At the same time, they are also threatening to disrupt all commercial shipping in the Red Sea if the blockade continues.

In case you missed it, the US military had earlier in the day announce that it has now “fully implemented” a naval blockade on all Iranian ports. This even led to some murmurs about Iran exploring alternatives but that didn’t seem too viable. From earlier in the session: Iran reportedly to use alternative ports to bypass US blockade of Strait of Hormuz

With a second round of talks slated for tomorrow, the IRGC threat here is certainly an interesting one. That as you would assume that if a peace deal is on the cards, perhaps there is not much of a need to issue such a threat. However, perhaps it is just a bit of a show of force that they won’t so easily compromise on the situation.

I guess we’ll have to wait and see in due time.

For some context, the Gulf of Oman is located just outside the Strait of Hormuz and houses one of a key port in the UAE, namely the Fujairah Port. That among other major ports for oil and gas under Oman too. And it also covers around two major Iranian ports – namely the Chabahar Port and the Jask Port.

This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.