Articles

ForexLive Asia FX news wrap: China GDP expanded in 2020

ForexLive Asia FX news wrap: China GDP expanded in 2020

104832   January 18, 2021 11:49   Forexlive Latest News   Market News  

Forex news for Asia trading
for Monday
18
January 2021

The
early hours of the new week here in Asia were sedate but livened up
for a while once Globex opened. US equity index futures dropped away
a little and this was soon followed by USD strength across the board
for major currencies. In
other developments during the Asian morning news
crossed that Canadian media was reporting incoming US President Joe
Biden would cancel the Keystone XL pipeline project. CAD,
predictably, weakened on the news. USD/CAD
remains near the top of its range for the session as I update.

USD/JPY
had notable swings, trading to highs above 103.90 (but shy of 104.00)
with
the early US dollar strength but has since fallen back to under
103.70 briefly – its just above there as I post.

AUD
and NZD join CAD on the weaker side of the ledger for the day. EUR,
GBP and CHF are all lower also but have been a little more resilient.
Yen has gained against the USD on the session.

Data
today – the focus was China. Q4 GDP confirmed China has a positive
year for economic growth, all other major economies around the globe
have contracted. Biden
has work to do if he wants a reset with China. Activity
data for December shows a continued recovery for the factory sector –
consumption continues to struggle though (the consumer is still on
the weak side). 

CAD has not shown much recovery as I post:

Forex news for Asia tradingfor Monday18January 2021

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Gold has “some upside” in Q1 but the back half of the year sees a sustained fall
Gold has “some upside” in Q1 but the back half of the year sees a sustained fall

Gold has “some upside” in Q1 but the back half of the year sees a sustained fall

104826   January 18, 2021 11:17   Forexlive Latest News   Market News  

Summary of comments via RBC on their view for gold this year:

Positive factors for gold bode well for gold to average $US1922 over Q1:

  • stimulus package measured in trillions expected from the Biden administration,
  • some tamping down of the Fed tapering narrative
  • raising rates will be “no time soon” 

Less positive inputs:

  • dollar strength and higher rates will remain a headwind for exactly as long as they persist

View ahead:

  • We think gold still has some upside in Q1 2021, particularly if fiscal and monetary policy do not disappoint
  • the second half of 2021 however will bring more sustainable moves lower for gold

For bank trade ideas, check out eFX Plus

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(Not FX) – The FBI is vetting National Guard troops in DC due to fears of aninsider attack
(Not FX) – The FBI is vetting National Guard troops in DC due to fears of aninsider attack

(Not FX) – The FBI is vetting National Guard troops in DC due to fears of aninsider attack

104822   January 18, 2021 10:56   Forexlive Latest News   Market News  

AP with the report on US defense officials saying they are worried about an insider attack or other threat from service members involved in securing President-elect Joe Biden’s inauguration

  • And thus the FBI is to vet all of 25,000 National Guard troops coming into Washington for the event

Army Secretary Ryan McCarthy told The Associated Press on Sunday that officials are conscious of the potential threat, and he warned commanders to be on the lookout for any problems within their ranks as the inauguration approaches. So far, however, he and other leaders say they have seen no evidence of any threats, and officials said the vetting hadn’t flagged any issues.

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Here’s what happens next for the Keystone XL pipeline if Biden cans it
Here’s what happens next for the Keystone XL pipeline if Biden cans it

Here’s what happens next for the Keystone XL pipeline if Biden cans it

104819   January 18, 2021 10:40   Forexlive Latest News   Market News  

A summary of remarks from RBC’s response to this earlier news:

RBC:

  • Given comments stating Biden’s opposition to KXL back in May 2020, we do not think this action should come as a surprise to the market. 

RBC see a glimmer of hope:

  • Could a renewable commitment save the project? TC Energy announced that it will achieve net zero emissions for the project when it is placed into service in 2023, while committing to fully power KXL by renewable energy no later than 2030. 

The kicker, though:

  • We would be surprised if this saves the project

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China activity data (December 2020): Industrial Production 7.3% y/y (expected 6.9%)
China activity data (December 2020): Industrial Production 7.3% y/y (expected 6.9%)

China activity data (December 2020): Industrial Production 7.3% y/y (expected 6.9%)

104807   January 18, 2021 10:02   Forexlive Latest News   Market News  


HIGH RISK WARNING: Foreign exchange trading carries a high level of risk that may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage creates additional risk and loss exposure. Before you decide to trade foreign exchange, carefully consider your investment objectives, experience level, and risk tolerance. You could lose some or all of your initial investment; do not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. Educate yourself on the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial or tax advisor if you have any questions.


ADVISORY WARNING: FOREXLIVE™ provides references and links to selected blogs and other sources of economic and market information as an educational service to its clients and prospects and does not endorse the opinions or recommendations of the blogs or other sources of information. Clients and prospects are advised to carefully consider the opinions and analysis offered in the blogs or other information sources in the context of the client or prospect’s individual analysis and decision making. None of the blogs or other sources of information is to be considered as constituting a track record. Past performance is no guarantee of future results and FOREXLIVE™ specifically advises clients and prospects to carefully review all claims and representations made by advisors, bloggers, money managers and system vendors before investing any funds or opening an account with any Forex dealer. Any news, opinions, research, data, or other information contained within this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment or trading advice. FOREXLIVE™ expressly disclaims any liability for any lost principal or profits without limitation which may arise directly or indirectly from the use of or reliance on such information. As with all such advisory services, past results are never a guarantee of future results.

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China Q4 GDP 6.5% y/y (vs. expected 6.2%)
China Q4 GDP 6.5% y/y (vs. expected 6.2%)

China Q4 GDP 6.5% y/y (vs. expected 6.2%)

104806   January 18, 2021 10:02   Forexlive Latest News   Market News  


HIGH RISK WARNING: Foreign exchange trading carries a high level of risk that may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage creates additional risk and loss exposure. Before you decide to trade foreign exchange, carefully consider your investment objectives, experience level, and risk tolerance. You could lose some or all of your initial investment; do not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. Educate yourself on the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial or tax advisor if you have any questions.


ADVISORY WARNING: FOREXLIVE™ provides references and links to selected blogs and other sources of economic and market information as an educational service to its clients and prospects and does not endorse the opinions or recommendations of the blogs or other sources of information. Clients and prospects are advised to carefully consider the opinions and analysis offered in the blogs or other information sources in the context of the client or prospect’s individual analysis and decision making. None of the blogs or other sources of information is to be considered as constituting a track record. Past performance is no guarantee of future results and FOREXLIVE™ specifically advises clients and prospects to carefully review all claims and representations made by advisors, bloggers, money managers and system vendors before investing any funds or opening an account with any Forex dealer. Any news, opinions, research, data, or other information contained within this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment or trading advice. FOREXLIVE™ expressly disclaims any liability for any lost principal or profits without limitation which may arise directly or indirectly from the use of or reliance on such information. As with all such advisory services, past results are never a guarantee of future results.

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ForexLive Americas FX news wrap: Sell-the-stimulus mood boosts dollar

ForexLive Americas FX news wrap: Sell-the-stimulus mood boosts dollar

104802   January 18, 2021 09:45   Forexlive Latest News   Market News  

Forex news for North American trade on January 15, 2020:

Markets:

  • Gold down $21 to $1826
  • US 10-year yields down 4 bps to 1.09%
  • WTI crude down $1.43 to $52.14
  • S&P 500 down 27 points to 3768
  • USD leads, NZD lags
There was a decided risk off tone in markets and that meant a bid in the US dollar even as Treasury yields slid. It was a classic ‘sell the fact’ move after Biden’s big stimulus plan, something I warned about.

Midway through the day, commodity currencies and risk assets tried to stage a rally and they made some headway before the selling returned later.

The economic data was a reminder of how much the government is supporting consumption as retail sales missed badly. There were also reminders of inflation pressures in the PPI and U Mich data, but the bond market appears to be moving on from that theme.

There wasn’t much political fallout from the Biden plan with few Senators speaking for or against it. Take that as a good sign for Biden but the market wasn’t in that kind of mood, perhaps with the long weekend taking away some of the positive sentiment.

Tune in for the Chinese data on the weekend and a thin session on Monday.

Forex news for North American trade on January 15, 2020:

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Canada’s ambassador to the US says “government of Canada continues to support the Keystone XL project”
Canada’s ambassador to the US says “government of Canada continues to support the Keystone XL project”

Canada’s ambassador to the US says “government of Canada continues to support the Keystone XL project”

104800   January 18, 2021 09:40   Forexlive Latest News   Market News  


HIGH RISK WARNING: Foreign exchange trading carries a high level of risk that may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage creates additional risk and loss exposure. Before you decide to trade foreign exchange, carefully consider your investment objectives, experience level, and risk tolerance. You could lose some or all of your initial investment; do not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. Educate yourself on the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial or tax advisor if you have any questions.


ADVISORY WARNING: FOREXLIVE™ provides references and links to selected blogs and other sources of economic and market information as an educational service to its clients and prospects and does not endorse the opinions or recommendations of the blogs or other sources of information. Clients and prospects are advised to carefully consider the opinions and analysis offered in the blogs or other information sources in the context of the client or prospect’s individual analysis and decision making. None of the blogs or other sources of information is to be considered as constituting a track record. Past performance is no guarantee of future results and FOREXLIVE™ specifically advises clients and prospects to carefully review all claims and representations made by advisors, bloggers, money managers and system vendors before investing any funds or opening an account with any Forex dealer. Any news, opinions, research, data, or other information contained within this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment or trading advice. FOREXLIVE™ expressly disclaims any liability for any lost principal or profits without limitation which may arise directly or indirectly from the use of or reliance on such information. As with all such advisory services, past results are never a guarantee of future results.

Full Article

BoA forecast for higher for gold from here
BoA forecast for higher for gold from here

BoA forecast for higher for gold from here

104798   January 18, 2021 09:34   Forexlive Latest News   Market News  

Estimates from Bank of America / Merrill Lynch for gold:

  • For 2021 USD 2063 average 
  • but the analysts expect that to drop back across 2022 to  USD1900

Silver to rise in 2022 though:

  • 2021 $28.74
  • 2022 $31.00 

For bank trade ideas, check out eFX Plus

Full Article

Iran has jailed a US businessman ahead of likely negotiations with Biden
Iran has jailed a US businessman ahead of likely negotiations with Biden

Iran has jailed a US businessman ahead of likely negotiations with Biden

104777   January 18, 2021 09:12   Forexlive Latest News   Market News  


HIGH RISK WARNING: Foreign exchange trading carries a high level of risk that may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage creates additional risk and loss exposure. Before you decide to trade foreign exchange, carefully consider your investment objectives, experience level, and risk tolerance. You could lose some or all of your initial investment; do not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. Educate yourself on the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial or tax advisor if you have any questions.


ADVISORY WARNING: FOREXLIVE™ provides references and links to selected blogs and other sources of economic and market information as an educational service to its clients and prospects and does not endorse the opinions or recommendations of the blogs or other sources of information. Clients and prospects are advised to carefully consider the opinions and analysis offered in the blogs or other information sources in the context of the client or prospect’s individual analysis and decision making. None of the blogs or other sources of information is to be considered as constituting a track record. Past performance is no guarantee of future results and FOREXLIVE™ specifically advises clients and prospects to carefully review all claims and representations made by advisors, bloggers, money managers and system vendors before investing any funds or opening an account with any Forex dealer. Any news, opinions, research, data, or other information contained within this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment or trading advice. FOREXLIVE™ expressly disclaims any liability for any lost principal or profits without limitation which may arise directly or indirectly from the use of or reliance on such information. As with all such advisory services, past results are never a guarantee of future results.

Full Article

China data is due at 0200GMT – GDP preview
China data is due at 0200GMT – GDP preview

China data is due at 0200GMT – GDP preview

104762   January 18, 2021 09:02   Forexlive Latest News   Market News  

Data from China due on Monday 18 January 2021 at 10 am Beijing time (0200GMT):

As posted earlier:

China GDP

  • expected +2.7% q/q, +6.2% y/y

  • prior was +2.7% q/q and +4.9% y/y

& China activity data for December 2020

Industrial Production y/y

Industrial Production YTD y/y

Fixed Assets (excluding rural) YTD y/y

Retail Sales y/y,

Retail Sales YTD y/y

  • expected -36.9%, prior was -4.8%

  • note the dichotomy between industrial production and retail sales, this is (an admittedly imperfect) indication in the changing recovery rates of the industrial and domestic demand sectors

I’m a wee bit snowed under so if you are after a preview I’ll refer to this helpful pice from Reuters that discusses what’s going on China a little more widely also:

For bank trade ideas, check out eFX Plus

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Singapore data: December NODX +6.8% y/y (beats expected of -0.7%)
Singapore data: December NODX +6.8% y/y (beats expected of -0.7%)

Singapore data: December NODX +6.8% y/y (beats expected of -0.7%)

104761   January 18, 2021 08:45   Forexlive Latest News   Market News  


HIGH RISK WARNING: Foreign exchange trading carries a high level of risk that may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage creates additional risk and loss exposure. Before you decide to trade foreign exchange, carefully consider your investment objectives, experience level, and risk tolerance. You could lose some or all of your initial investment; do not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. Educate yourself on the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial or tax advisor if you have any questions.


ADVISORY WARNING: FOREXLIVE™ provides references and links to selected blogs and other sources of economic and market information as an educational service to its clients and prospects and does not endorse the opinions or recommendations of the blogs or other sources of information. Clients and prospects are advised to carefully consider the opinions and analysis offered in the blogs or other information sources in the context of the client or prospect’s individual analysis and decision making. None of the blogs or other sources of information is to be considered as constituting a track record. Past performance is no guarantee of future results and FOREXLIVE™ specifically advises clients and prospects to carefully review all claims and representations made by advisors, bloggers, money managers and system vendors before investing any funds or opening an account with any Forex dealer. Any news, opinions, research, data, or other information contained within this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment or trading advice. FOREXLIVE™ expressly disclaims any liability for any lost principal or profits without limitation which may arise directly or indirectly from the use of or reliance on such information. As with all such advisory services, past results are never a guarantee of future results.

Full Article

Rewind