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The Times is reporting that Labour Wes Streeting is likely to abandon his bid for PM in favor of Andy Burnham if Burnham wins the Makerfield by-election.

• There is a feeling that no one can beat Andy if he wins the by-election and launches a push to unseat PM Keir Starmer.

Although it is not surly, the trends are that Burnham would be the best candidate.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Iran Foreign Minister is saying:

• Focus is on ending the war and fulfilling Iran’s clear demands.
• Tehran’s main focus is ending the war on all fronts including Lebanon, releasing frozen assets,and stopping pressing actions and maritime piracy
• Despite the negative record, Iran is pursuing the path of negotiations with seriousness in good faith, but is suspicious of America’s performance.

They say that they are currently studying the US’s points for peace.

Meanwhile, Pres. Trump says that oil from Venezuela is coming to Texas/Louisiana/Alaska.

• Iran will not have a nuclear weapon
• More fighting to come unless Iran gets smart.

I don’t know if the gap is narrowing, but the markets seem to think if there is more bombing, it would be short-lived before a surrender. My guess.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

• High yield 5.122%
• WI level at the time of the auction 5.122%
• Tail 0.0 basis points
• Bid to cover 2.55X
• Directs 22.94%
• Indirects 67.67%
• Dealers 9.39%

The dealer takedown was less than the 6-month average of 11.1%. The Bid to cover was a little lower than the average at 2.62x but the international demand saved the day with 67.67% vs 6-month average at 63.5%.

AUCTION GRADE C+

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

The WSJ is reporting that OpenAI is preparing confidential IPO paperwork, setting up what could become one of the biggest and most closely watched tech offerings in years. Reports say the company is working with Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley, with a possible filing coming within days and a public debut targeted as early as September.

The move follows a legal victory over co-founder Elon Musk, although the company still faces questions about profitability, heavy AI infrastructure spending, and rising competition from Anthropic. CEO Sam Altman is leading the company toward what could become a defining IPO for the AI era.

Key points:

• OpenAI preparing confidential IPO filings
• Filing could come within days
• Public debut may happen as early as September
• Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley advising
• Legal win over Elon Musk cleared a major hurdle
• Musk expected to appeal
• Concerns remain over spending and profitability
• Competition from Anthropic is growing
• IPO could become a major test of AI market enthusiasm

Market implications:

An OpenAI IPO would likely boost attention across AI-linked stocks, semiconductors, cloud infrastructure, and data-center companies. Investors will closely watch revenue growth, enterprise adoption, and spending levels to judge whether AI valuations remain justified.

Several groups and companies could benefit significantly from an OpenAI IPO, but the biggest winners would likely be:

• Microsoft
  • Microsoft is the largest strategic partner and infrastructure provider to OpenAI.
  • Benefits would come through:
    • Increased Azure cloud demand
    • Revenue-sharing agreements
    • Higher enterprise AI adoption
    • Stronger positioning in the AI race
  • A successful IPO would also validate Microsoft’s aggressive AI investment strategy.
• NVIDIA
  • OpenAI’s massive computing needs require enormous amounts of NVIDIA GPUs.
  • Continued AI expansion would likely support ongoing demand for chips, servers, and AI infrastructure.
• Cloud and data-center companies
  • Firms tied to AI infrastructure, networking, cooling systems, and power demand could benefit as AI spending accelerates.
• OpenAI employees and early investors
  • An IPO could unlock enormous paper wealth for employees, executives, venture investors, and strategic backers.
• The broader IPO market
  • A strong OpenAI debut could revive investor appetite for large tech IPOs after several slower years.

Who could face pressure?

• Google, Meta, and Amazon
  • A successful IPO could intensify competitive pressure as investors compare AI growth strategies and monetization progress.
• Smaller AI startups
  • Investor capital could become more concentrated around dominant AI leaders like OpenAI and Microsoft.

Having said that, all boats may rise

Bottom line

The biggest overall beneficiary may be Microsoft because it sits at the center of both the infrastructure and monetization side of the AI boom. An OpenAI IPO would likely reinforce Microsoft’s position as one of the primary commercial winners of the artificial intelligence revolution.

Shares of Microsoft are trading up around $0.66 at $418. The low price was at $411.30 today.

Ps. The bankers are in for a pay day as well with OpenAI, Anthropic and SpaceX lining up. Goldman and Morgan Stanley are the leads on this one.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

The Iranian Foreign Minister is speaking and says:

• The negotiations are ongoing through Pakistan intermediary
• On uranium transfer, says “why should Iran transfer its enriched uranium to another country? “
• Says that no one was worried about our nuclear program
• Everyone knows that our nuclear program is 100% peaceful.
• Says they do not want demands, but want rights.

The Pakistan Army chief may visit Iran tomorrow to announce the completion of the final version of the text of the agreement

Speaking earlier, President Trump said the U.S. would “give this one shot” regarding Iran negotiations and emphasized that he was “in no hurry,” signaling a willingness to allow diplomacy more time while still maintaining pressure. He added that Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu would ultimately “do whatever he wants” regarding Iran, while also stating that Iran has been “decimated,” reinforcing the administration’s hardline tone.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

The price of crude oil has moved to a low of $97 on the news. The current prices trading backup at $98.60. US stocks are higher with the S&P up 70 points or 0.94% while the NASDAQ index is up 340 points or 1.31%.

The USD has moved to lower. The price of USDJPY has moved below the 100 hour moving average at $158.78 to test the low prices from the last two trading days near $158.60. Moving below those levels would have traders targeting the rising 100 hour moving average at 158.10..

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

A Reuters article is making the rounds saying that a June rate hike is “nearly sealed”

• ECB officials see a June rate hike as nearly certain, with persistent high energy costs keeping inflation pressures elevated.
• The ECB is likely to avoid committing to a July hike, preferring to keep options open and remain data dependent.

Inflation risks have increased as elevated energy prices continue to pressure the outlook, with no visible peace agreement involving Iran in sight. Headline inflation is already running at 3%, well above the ECB’s 2% target, reinforcing the case for a June rate hike. Officials also acknowledge that even if a peace agreement is eventually reached, energy prices could remain elevated for some time before markets fully stabilize.

At the same time, policymakers remain increasingly concerned about the growth outlook. Weak economic activity, softer labor market conditions, and slowing demand are expected to help dampen inflation pressures over the medium term. As a result, while a June hike appears increasingly likely, the ECB is expected to remain cautious about committing to a steady pace of tightening beyond that meeting.

Financial markets are currently pricing in three ECB rate hikes over the next year, with the first move expected in July and the last anticipated by February.

The EURUSD has moved higher over the last hour

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Looking at the weekly EIA oil inventory data showed a large drawdown of crude oil stocks. Gasoline toys fall. Distillates rise modestly:

• Crude oil inventories -7.863M versus estimate drawdown of -2.942M
• Distillates, build of 0.372M vs expected drawdown of -1.072M
• Gasoline drawdown -1.548M vs estimate drawdown of -2.096M
• Cushing drawdown of -1.604M vs a drawdown of -1.702M last week.

Despite the drawdown, crude oil is trading lower on the day by $-3.80 at $100.30. The low price extended to $99.45. The high price is at $104.45.

Technically, the price has dipped back below the 200 hour moving average at $100.57. Stay below that moving average level keeps the sellers more in control.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Geopolitical uncertainty remains a key catalyst for the market. Admittedly, the reactions have been somewhat less muted on good news lately. We will be monitoring those reactions. Meanwhile, trumpeters speaking and says

• Will work on Taiwan problem
• Will speak to Taiwan’s president.
• Think it’s good Xi meeting with Putin.
• On Iran, says that we are going to give this one shot, and am in no hurry.
• Will seek out of get rid of people in DOJ and FBI (not sure what that means honestly).
• Says that Israel PM Netanyahu will do whatever he wants him to do on Iran. Says Iran is decimated.

Crude oil remains a key market moving determinant, and also important in the consumer’s eyes. Currently, crude oil is trading lower, down $2.40 or -2.30% at $101.78, as sellers push the market closer to an important technical support zone.

On the hourly chart, the low price today reached $100.75, just above the rising 200-hour moving average at $100.55 (green line on the chart below). That moving average is proving to be a key barometer for the short-term bias. Recall that during Monday’s trade, buyers also leaned against the 200-hour moving average, helping the price rebound after testing support near the swing area between $97.34 and $98.58.

As long as the price can hold above the 200-hour moving average, buyers still maintain some near-term technical control. However, a sustained break below that level would shift the bias more to the downside from a technical perspective. If sellers gain that momentum, traders would next look toward the swing area support between $97.34 and $98.58, along with the 50% midpoint of the broader trading range since April at $98.30, as the next major downside targets.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

London, Larnaca – HFM is proud to congratulate Arsenal Football Club on being crowned Premier League champions, marking a defining moment for the club, its supporters and everyone connected to the Arsenal family.

After 22 years, Arsenal have returned to the summit of English football. This is more than a title win. It is the reward for belief, patience and a relentless commitment to progress, values that have defined Arsenal’s journey and continue to inspire millions around the world.

From the legacy of the Invincibles to this new chapter of success, Arsenal’s triumph is a reminder that history is built over time. Through consistency, resilience and belief, the club has earned its place once again at the top of English football.

As the Official Online Trading Partner of Arsenal, HFM celebrates this achievement with immense pride. Our partnership is built on shared values: preparation, precision, trust and the pursuit of high performance. In football, as in trading, long-term success is built on preparation, discipline, and the ability to perform when it matters most.

This Premier League victory belongs to the players, the manager, the staff and the supporters who kept believing. It is a moment earned through resilience and a statement of what can be achieved when ambition is matched by action.

HFM congratulates Arsenal Football Club, its players, staff and supporters on a remarkable Premier League triumph and a season that will be remembered for years to come.

About HFM

HFM is an award-winning multi-asset broker offering trading services and facilities to retail and institutional clients worldwide. Known for its cutting-edge technology, competitive conditions, and client-first approach, HFM provides an unparalleled trading experience ensuring that clients have access to the tools and resources necessary to navigate the often complex world of online trading.

This article was written by IL Contributors at investinglive.com.

Headlines:

• A steadier mood as we get into European trading, still no US-Iran breakthrough yet
• EUR/USD continues its run lower amid increasing Fed hike bets, surging Treasury yields
• Gold extends the losses as Fed rate hike risks increase amid prolonged US-Iran stalemate
• ECB policymaker Wunsch warns we are at the beginning of an inflation problem
• Soon to be ECB policymaker Moulin says it’s too soon to say if ECB needs to act in June
• What did the U.S. walk away with from the China summit?
• China to buy 200 Boeing jets and ease rare earth curbs in US trade breakthrough
• UK inflation underwhelms in April but it comes with some major caveats
• Euro area headline inflation confirmed to pick up further in April amid Middle East war
• Germany producer prices nudge higher in April as higher energy prices continue to bite

Markets:

• Slight recovery in equities; DAX up 0.5%, CAC 40 up 0.7% on the day
• S&P 500 futures up 0.3%, Nasdaq futures up 0.5%
• Oil prices down with WTI crude down 1.9% to $102.15
• 10-year Treasury yields down 3 bps to 4.64%
• US dollar little changed, hold more mixed on the day
• Gold up 0.3% to $4,493
• Nvidia earnings, FOMC meeting minutes eyed next

It was another quiet session but defined by a steadier risk mood in markets for the most part. That comes after the more defensive risk tone in the earlier half of the week.

Oil prices and bond yields come off the boil a little and that is helping to provide some respite to broader markets. That being said, the US-Iran conflict continues to drag on and there is still no breakthrough on talks. So, that will continue to pose a headwind to overall risk sentiment amid a lack of positive headlines.

WTI crude is down 1.9% to $102.15 with bond yields in the US and Europe cooling off a little today. 10-year yields in the US are down 3 bps to 4.64% while 10-year yields in France are down 5 bps to 3.94% on the day.

That’s helping to see equities breathe a sigh of relief with European indices posting modest gains of around 0.5% to 0.6%. Meanwhile, S&P 500 futures are seen up 0.3% on the day.

In FX, the dollar is holding steadier with changes being very light across the major pairs. EUR/USD is flat near 1.1600 with large option expiries in play while USD/JPY is flat and hugging the 159.00 level amid potential intervention risks.

Besides that, we’re seeing precious metals recover a bit of ground at least with gold up 0.3% to $4,493 and silver up 2.6% to $75.75 so far today.

Nvidia earnings and the FOMC meeting minutes will be the two major things to look out for in US trading later. So, keep an eye out for that alongside the usual US-Iran shenanigans once again.

This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

• CPI +3.0% vs +3.0% y/y prelim
• Prior +2.6%
• Core CPI +2.2% vs +2.2% y/y prelim
• Prior +2.3%

Services inflation continues to be the main sticking point, but is at least seen easing to 3.0% in April (previously 3.3%). Meanwhile, food price inflation is still keeping thereabouts at 2.4% (previously 2.5%). But with regards to the headline reading, energy price inflation is the main category that is bringing up prices. On a monthly basis, energy prices were up 3.0% and up 10.8% on an annual basis. On the latter, that is a marked step up from the 5.1% estimate in March.

All in all, this just points to a continued uptick in headline price pressures as the US-Iran conflict drags on. And the impact of that will be more evident in broader categories as higher energy costs become more embedded into other parts of the economy.

With there still being no resolution to the war, expect prices to stay underpinned in Q2 and even in the early stages of Q3 at the very least.

The more detailed breakdown of the report above can be seen below:

This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.