Articles

Thursday 26th November: Asian markets gain slowly as US numbers put sentiment off
Thursday 26th November: Asian markets gain slowly as US numbers put sentiment off

Thursday 26th November: Asian markets gain slowly as US numbers put sentiment off

90944   November 26, 2020 17:02   ICMarkets   Market News  

Global Markets:

  • Asian Stock Markets : Nikkei up 0.91%, Shanghai Composite up 0.22%, Hang Seng up 0.41%, ASX down 0.70%
  • Commodities : Gold at $1814.05 (+0.47%), Silver at $23.42 (+0.26%), Brent Oil at $47.78 (-1.55%), WTI Oil at $45.01 (-1.53%)
  • Rates : US 10-year yield at 0.883, UK 10-year yield at 0.312, Germany 10-year yield at -0.570

News & Data:

  • (USD) Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment 76.9 vs 76.9 expected
  • (USD) Unemployment Claims 778K vs 732K expected
  • (USD) Prelim GDP q/q 33.10% vs 33.10% expected
  • Sunak: UK Should Not Be Stretching For A Brexit Deal At Any Cost – LBC
  • FOMC Minutes Show Fed Split Over Asset-Purchase Plans

Markets Update:

Asian stock markets are turning in a muted performance on Thursday as optimism about the recent positive news regarding coronavirus vaccines was offset by data that showed U.S. weekly jobless claims unexpectedly increased amid a surge in coronavirus infections in the U.S.

The Shanghai composite rose 0.2% while the Shenzhen component fell 0.5%. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index ended its trading day 0.4% higher. The Nikkei 225 gained 0.9% while the Topix index rose 0.6%. The Australian market declined 0.7% following the mixed cues from Wall Street amid disappointing economic U.S. data. Investor sentiment was also dampened following news that Australian coal worth more than A$700 million is being held up at Chinese ports due to rising tensions between Australia and China.

The U.S. dollar index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of its peers, was at 91.908 after seeing levels above 92.4 earlier this week. Bitcoin fell 4% to $17,909, pulling off from a near-three-year high touched the previous day. Still, the crypto-currency sits on gains of about 30% so far this month.

Upcoming Events:

  • 09:00 AM GMT – (EUR) M3 Money Supply y/y
  • 09:00 AM GMT – (EUR) Private Loans y/y
  • 12:30 PM GMT – (EUR) ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts
  • 11:30 PM GMT – (JPY) Tokyo Core CPI y/y

Full Article


Thursday 26th November: Technical Outlook and Review

Thursday 26th November: Technical Outlook and Review

90802   November 26, 2020 08:45   ICMarkets   Market News  

Key risk events today:

Limited.

(Previous analysis as well as outside sources – italics).

EUR/USD:

Wednesday witnessed the euro capitalise on dollar weakness, recently probing fresh monthly peaks at 1.1929.

H4 movement retested, and held, the 1.19 handle as support, shining the spotlight on September’s opening value at 1.1937.

Meanwhile, the weekly timeframe shows buyers making their way towards the 2018 yearly opening value at 1.2004, closely shadowed by Quasimodo resistance priced at 1.2092. The daily timeframe is also poised to test resistance at 1.1940, followed by Quasimodo resistance from 1.1965.

Areas of consideration:

  • Breakout buyers north of 1.19 on the H4 are likely targeting September’s opening value at 1.1937.
  • September’s opening value on the H4 and daily resistance at 1.1940 marks healthy (resistance) confluence to work with.
  • Weekly resistance, in the shape of the 2018 yearly opening value, at 1.2004 joins closely with the key figure 1.20 on the H4, consequently representing strong resistance.

GBP/USD:

Largely overlooking the lack of Brexit developments and UK Chancellor Sunak’s spending review, GBP/USD buyers went on the offensive Wednesday.

Technically, H4 remains supported above the 1.33 point, recording a fourth consecutive daily advance. H4 is also still dealing with familiar resistance (yellow) between 1.3425/1.3368 (made up of two 127.2% Fibonacci projection points at 1.3425/1.3368, the round number 1.34, an 88.6% Fibonacci retracement ratio at 1.3390 and September’s opening value at 1.3368).

From the weekly timeframe, after rejecting the 2019 yearly opening value from 1.2739 in September, buyers eventually mustered enough strength to take on the 2020 yearly opening value at 1.3250 last week and record a third consecutive weekly gain. Additional strength could have the unit knock on the door of the 2018 yearly opening value from 1.3503. Technically, however, the immediate trend has remained lower since topping in 2014.

Elsewhere, the daily picture, thanks to recent upside, is seen squeezing sellers within the bearish harmonic Gartley pattern’s PRZ at 1.3384/1.3312. Overthrowing the aforementioned PRZ could be viewed as an early cue we’re headed for the 2018 yearly opening value at 1.3503 on the weekly scale.

Areas of consideration:

  • Weekly buyers targeting 1.3503 and daily sellers under pressure within the bearish harmonic Gartley pattern’s PRZ at 1.3384/1.3312, positions H4 sellers out of the resistance zone from 1.3425/1.3368 in a vulnerable position.
  • Bullish scenarios, in light of the above analysis, may be found off the 1.33 region (in the event of a correction) or north of the 1.34 handle (H4).

AUD/USD:

The Australian dollar finished the European session considerably off worst levels against the buck on Wednesday. Ultimately, though, little change has been seen from a technical perspective. As such, here’s a reminder of where we left yesterday’s outlook.

Recent action breached the top side of a H4 ascending triangle pattern (0.7340). This projects a possible target of around 0.7544 (red arrows), implying a break above September’s opening value at 0.7376, the 0.74 handle and Quasimodo resistance at 0.7403.

Buyers, based on the weekly timeframe, are seen extending the 3% showing off the 2020 (0.7016) and 2019 (0.7042) yearly opening values (supports) formed early November, positioning the unit within striking distance of resistance at 0.7379. In view of this market trending higher since early 2020, buyers may also be eyeballing resistance parked at 0.7495.

Following the November 13 retest of support at 0.7235, despite a somewhat lacklustre performance last week, buyers have eventually found some grip and shined the spotlight on resistance at 0.7393 (positioned above weekly resistance).

Areas of consideration:

  • Breakout buyers above the H4 ascending triangle have an ultimate target of 0.7544, though could have problems with resistances nearby (see below).
  • September’s opening value at 0.7376, weekly resistance at 0.7379 and daily resistance at 0.7393 form an area of resistance to be mindful of.
  • 74 on the H4, along with Quasimodo resistance at 0.7403 and a 127.2% Fibonacci projection point at 0.7411 is also an area to be aware of.

USD/JPY:

Modestly lower on the day, USD/JPY struggled to find demand on Wednesday as the DXY piled into fresh monthly lows.

Heading into Thursday’s session, H4 is seen holding south of November’s opening value at 104.50 after failing to find acceptance north of the latter on Wednesday. 104 demands attention should sellers remain in the driving seat, with a break exposing 103.70 lows.

Higher timeframes unchanged:

Weekly price, since connecting with the underside of supply at 108.16-106.88 in August, has gradually shifted lower and developed a declining wedge (106.94/104.18). Quasimodo support at 102.55 is in the picture, with a break exposing support plotted at 100.61. A strong bounce from 102.55 may provide enough impetus for buyers to attempt a breakout above the current declining wedge.

The technical landscape from the daily timeframe, however, reveals scope to close in on trend line resistance, extended from the high 111.71, with a break to perhaps take a run at resistance from 106.06. Nevertheless, sellers taking over could lead price to the 103.17 November 6 low, followed by weekly Quasimodo support at 102.55. The only noteworthy addition on this timeframe is the back-to-back indecision doji candles recently formed.

Areas of consideration:

  • Retesting 104.50 on the H4 scale today as resistance may be a platform sellers show interest in, targeting at least 104.

USD/CAD:

USD/CAD prices finished mostly unmoved Wednesday, with H4 action attempting to negotiate direction around the key figure 1.30. Buying interest off the round number was hampered by 1.3020 yesterday, indicating sellers may try to knock price south of 1.30 today, in hope of reaching Quasimodo support at 1.2927.

However, before reaching for the aforementioned H4 Quasimodo, as underlined in yesterday’s technical briefing, traders might want to take into account weekly support resides close by in the form of a 2020 yearly opening value at 1.2975, as well as daily support coming in at 1.2973 (essentially marking the same region).

Areas of consideration:

  • Given 1.30 is a widely watched figure, buyers are unlikely to give up this level without a fight.
  • A fakeout through 1.30 to welcome buyers off weekly/daily supports at 1.2975ish could arise. A reaction off higher timeframe supports, fuelled on sell-stop liquidity (from under 1.30), may see buyers close back above 1.30, a move that might attract additional buyers back to September’s opening value at 1.3043 (H4).

USD/CHF:

The safe-haven Swiss franc latched on to a mild bid Wednesday amidst risk aversion. Leaving trend line resistance, extended from the high 0.9295, and November’s opening value at 0.9161 unchallenged, this escorted USD/CHF back through the 0.91 handle on the H4 into a familiar area of support from 0.9075-0.9088 (orange) and consequently tested 0.9079 (a clear H1 Quasimodo resistance-turned support). Beyond 0.9075-0.9088, bearish themes could develop towards September’s opening value at 0.9038, followed by the key 0.90 level.

Action on the higher timeframes currently offers little in terms of technical structure.

Weekly price is seen lingering mid-way between support at 0.9014, a level dovetailing closely with ABCD support at 0.9051 (black arrows), and 0.9255 resistance (a prior Quasimodo support). It should also be noted this market has been trending lower since April 2019, seen clearly from the weekly scale.

From the daily timeframe, price remains languishing south of resistance at 0.9187, with Quasimodo support at 0.9009 representing a possible downside objective on this chart. It’s also worth acknowledging trend line resistance resides close by, taken from the high 0.9901.

Areas of consideration:

  • 9075-0.9088 is a grounded area of support on the H4 scale, though given the force sellers entered the zone a break lower is perhaps in the offing, a move that could trigger further weakness to at least September’s opening value at 0.9038 (H4).
  • Buyers making a stand out of 0.9075-0.9088 may see additional buyers join following a H4 close back above 0.91.

Dow Jones Industrial Average:

US equity benchmarks finished mixed Wednesday amid less-than-stellar US data. The Dow Jones Industrial Average shed 173.77 points, or 0.58%; the S&P 500 traded lower by 5.76 points, or 0.16%, while the Nasdaq ended higher by 57.08 points, or 0.47%.

Buyers, based on the H4 scale, failed to find approval above the widely watched 30,000 figure on Wednesday, dipping from all-time peaks at 30,217 and establishing what many technicians will view as an early bull trap. H4 support at 29,518 is in sight, while digging beyond may have sellers make their way towards two Quasimodo supports at 29,202 and 29,240.

Meanwhile, on the bigger picture, weekly support is not expected to make an appearance until around the 2020 yearly opening value at 28,595. Similarly, declining support on the daily timeframe, taken from the high 29,193, also offers support around the 28,595ish area.

Areas of consideration:

  • For many, this will be a difficult unit to sell sub 30,000, having recently witnessed fresh all-time highs.
  • Dip-buyers are likely watching H4 support at 29,518 and the two Quasimodo supports at 29,202 and 29,240.
  • Crossing back above 30,000, on the other hand, could ignite breakout strategies.

XAU/USD (GOLD):

It was a slow day for the yellow metal Wednesday, modestly buoyed north of the $1,800 level and a H4 Quasimodo support at $1,802.

As described in Wednesday’s technical briefing, H4 buyers may struggle to find a foothold off $1,800 as daily action reveals a possible fakeout through $1,800 into the 200-day SMA (orange – $1,797). Traders may also acknowledge weekly price suggests an extension to the downside towards support coming in at $1,787.

Areas of consideration:

  • H4 whipsawing through $1,800 to test the 200-day SMA on the daily timeframe at $1,797 is a possible scenario. Buyers defending the SMA and printing a H4 close back above $1,800 may invite additional buyers into the fight.
  • Holding south of $1,800, on the other hand, could fuel continuation selling towards weekly support at $1.787.

The accuracy, completeness and timeliness of the information contained on this site cannot be guaranteed. IC Markets does not warranty, guarantee or make any representations, or assume any liability regarding financial results based on the use of the information in the site.

News, views, opinions, recommendations and other information obtained from sources outside of www.icmarkets.com.au, used in this site are believed to be reliable, but we cannot guarantee their accuracy or completeness. All such information is subject to change at any time without notice. IC Markets assumes no responsibility for the content of any linked site.

The fact that such links may exist does not indicate approval or endorsement of any material contained on any linked site. IC Markets is not liable for any harm caused by the transmission, through accessing the services or information on this site, of a computer virus, or other computer code or programming device that might be used to access, delete, damage, disable, disrupt or otherwise impede in any manner, the operation of the site or of any user’s software, hardware, data or property

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Full Article

Wednesday 25th November: Asian markets gain as Dow closes at record highs
Wednesday 25th November: Asian markets gain as Dow closes at record highs

Wednesday 25th November: Asian markets gain as Dow closes at record highs

90551   November 25, 2020 16:02   ICMarkets   Market News  

Global Markets:

  • Asian Stock Markets : Nikkei up 0.50%, Shanghai Composite down 1.19%, Hang Seng up 0.19%, ASX up 0.59%
  • Commodities : Gold at $1805.30 (+0.04%), Silver at $23.25 (-0.24%), Brent Oil at $48.23 (+0.94%), WTI Oil at $45.26 (+0.78%)
  • Rates : US 10-year yield at 0.875, UK 10-year yield at 0.323, Germany 10-year yield at -0.563

News & Data:

  • (JPY) BOJ Core CPI y/y 0.00% vs -0.10% expected
  • (AUD) Construction Work Done q/q -2.60% vs -2.00% expected
  • (JPY) SPPI y/y -0.60% vs -0.50% expected
  • (USD) CB Consumer Confidence 96.1 vs 97.7 expected
  • (USD) Richmond Manufacturing Index 15 vs 20 expected
  • (USD) S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI y/y 6.60% vs 5.30% expected
  • (USD) HPI m/m 1.70% vs 0.80% expected
  • (GBP) CBI Realized Sales -25 vs -34 expected
  • (EUR) German ifo Business Climate 90.7 vs 90.3 expected
  • Japan Kato: Received Courtesy Call From Chinese Foreign Minister Wang
  • China ready to boost COVID-19 vaccine cooperation with Germany: Xi

Markets Update:

Asian stock markets are in positive territory on Wednesday day following the record closing highs overnight on Wall Street as news about U.S. President-elect Joe Biden’s transition to the White House and continued optimism about coronavirus vaccines boosted risk appetite.

In China, the Shanghai composite dipped 1.2% while the Shenzhen component shed 1.8%. In Japan, the Nikkei 225 rose 0.5% while the Topix index gained 0.3%. The Hang Seng index in Hong Kong also advanced 0.2%. The Australian market is rising for a third straight day following the gains on Wall Street. The easing of virus-induced travel restrictions in Australia also buoyed sentiment.

U.S. Treasuries were also pressured by expectations that Yellen’s nomination as Treasury Secretary could ease the passage of a fiscal stimulus package, which would mean more debt. Oil prices also held near highest levels since March on the improved global economic outlook.

Upcoming Events:

  • 09:00 AM GMT – (EUR) ECB Financial Stability Review
  • 01:30 PM GMT – (USD) Prelim GDP q/q
  • 01:30 PM GMT – (USD) Unemployment Claims
  • 03:00 PM GMT – (USD) Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment
  • Tentative – (GBP) Autumn Forecast Statement
  • 07:00 PM GMT – (USD) FOMC Meeting Minutes

Full Article


Wednesday 25th November: Technical Outlook and Review

Wednesday 25th November: Technical Outlook and Review

90436   November 25, 2020 08:51   ICMarkets   Market News  

Key risk events today:

Australia Construction Work Done q/q; RBNZ Governor Orr to Speak; ECB Financial Stability Review; US Prelim GDP q/q; US Unemployment Claims; US Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment; FOMC Meeting Minutes.

(Previous analysis as well as outside sources – italics).

EUR/USD:

Europe’s single currency posted modest gains against the US dollar Tuesday, with H4 candles now seen touring just south of 1.19 and Quasimodo resistance at 1.1895. The scenery north of 1.19 reveals room to approach September’s opening value at 1.1937, while to the downside the 1.18 handle calls for attention, followed by Quasimodo support priced in at 1.1779.

Meanwhile, the weekly timeframe shows neither buyers nor sellers are willing to take control, despite healthy interest off support at 1.1621 early November. Should buyers regain consciousness, nevertheless, the 2018 yearly opening value at 1.2004, closely shadowed by Quasimodo resistance priced at 1.2092, are on show. Traders may also want to acknowledge July’s trend line resistance break, taken from the high 1.2555, on top of the break of the 1.1495 March 9 swing high, consequently placing long-term buyers in a reasonably healthy position.

The daily timeframe witnessed fresh highs form November 9 (red arrow), following a spike to lows ahead of support at 1.1594 and a 50.0% retracement ratio from 1.1582. For some, this may be understood as bullish confirmation. Resistance, however, is seen at 1.1940, followed by Quasimodo resistance from 1.1965. Traders may also recognise that just beyond the aforementioned resistances, weekly resistance at 1.2004 is seen (2018 yearly opening value).

Areas of consideration:

  • 19 and H4 Quasimodo resistance at 1.1895 remains watched resistance.
  • 18 is likely watched in this market. Sell-stop liquidity resting south of this round number (protective stop-loss orders and breakout sellers’ orders) may also tempt a fakeout lower to draw in fresh buyers from H4 Quasimodo support at 1.1779.
  • Possible breakout buying north of 1.19 on the H4, targeting September’s opening value at 1.1937.
  • September’s opening value on the H4 and daily resistance at 1.1940 marks healthy confluence to work with if a breach of 1.19 occurs.

GBP/USD:

GBP/USD entered another offensive phase Tuesday, bid on the back of risk-on trading. Recording a third consecutive daily advance, deriving technical support from the 1.33 region, H4 is circling within striking distance of familiar resistance between 1.3425/1.3368 (made up of two 127.2% Fibonacci projection points at 1.3425/1.3368, the round number 1.34, an 88.6% Fibonacci retracement ratio at 1.3390 and September’s opening value at 1.3368).

From the weekly timeframe, after rejecting the 2019 yearly opening value from 1.2739 in September, buyers eventually mustered enough strength to take on the 2020 yearly opening value at 1.3250 last week and record a third consecutive weekly gain. Additional strength could have the unit knock on the door of the 2018 yearly opening value from 1.3503. Technically, however, the immediate trend has remained lower since topping in 2014.

Elsewhere, the daily picture, thanks to recent upside, is seen squeezing sellers within the bearish harmonic Gartley pattern’s PRZ at 1.3384/1.3312. Overthrowing the aforementioned PRZ could be viewed as an early cue we’re headed for the 2018 yearly opening value at 1.3503 on the weekly scale.

Areas of consideration:

  • Weekly buyers targeting 1.3503 and daily sellers under pressure within the bearish harmonic Gartley pattern’s PRZ at 1.3384/1.3312, positions H4 sellers out of the resistance zone from 1.3425/1.3368 in a vulnerable position.
  • Bullish scenarios, in light of the above analysis, may be found north of the 1.34 handle (H4) today.

AUD/USD:

Risk currencies outperformed Tuesday, with AUD/USD rallying nearly 1% and breaching the top side of a H4 ascending triangle pattern (0.7340). This projects a possible target of around 0.7544 (red arrows), implying a break above September’s opening value at 0.7376, the 0.74 handle and Quasimodo resistance at 0.7403.

Buyers, based on the weekly timeframe, are seen extending the 3% showing off the 2020 (0.7016) and 2019 (0.7042) yearly opening values (supports) formed early November, positioning the unit within striking distance of resistance at 0.7379. In view of this market trending higher since early 2020, buyers may also be eyeballing resistance parked at 0.7495.

Following the November 13 retest of support at 0.7235, despite a somewhat lacklustre performance last week, buyers have eventually found some grip and shined the spotlight on resistance at 0.7393 (positioned above weekly resistance).

Areas of consideration:

  • A 0.73 retest could interest buyers on the H4, having noted the ascending triangle breakout, initially targeting September’s opening value at 0.7376 and the 0.74 handle.
  • September’s opening value at 0.7376, weekly resistance at 0.7379 and daily resistance at 0.7393 form an area of resistance to be mindful of.

USD/JPY:

Appreciating for a third consecutive session, upbeat risk sentiment bolstered USD/JPY movement going into London’s morning session on Tuesday. Dumping the yen in favour of the buck led H4 above November’s opening value at 104.50 to peaks at 104.76.

With H4 poised to retest 104.50, and room for buyers to hone in on the 105 handle, a rigid defence may be seen off 104.50 today.

Against the backdrop of the H4 timeframe, weekly price, since connecting with the underside of supply at 108.16-106.88 in August, has gradually shifted lower and developed a declining wedge (106.94/104.18). Quasimodo support at 102.55 is in the picture, with a break exposing support plotted at 100.61. A strong bounce from 102.55 may provide enough impetus for buyers to attempt a breakout above the current declining wedge.

The technical landscape from the daily timeframe, however, reveals scope to close in on trend line resistance, extended from the high 111.71, with a break to perhaps take a run at resistance from 106.06. Nevertheless, sellers taking over could lead price to the 103.17 November 6 low, followed by weekly Quasimodo support at 102.55.

Areas of consideration:

  • Higher timeframes demonstrate room to advance.
  • Retesting 104.50 on the H4 scale today may be a platform buyers show interest in, targeting at least 105.

USD/CAD:

The US dollar slipped to 2-week lows against the Canadian dollar Tuesday, weighed by WTI climbing above $44.50 a barrel and the US dollar index tunnelling through 92.50.

Demolishing September’s opening value at 1.3043 on the H4 scale has led candles to within touching distance of the key figure 1.30 (a widely watched level in this market that’s joined by a Quasimodo support [red arrow] around 1.2997). Removing the round number today may clear the river south towards H4 Quasimodo support at 1.2927.

However, before reaching for the aforementioned H4 Quasimodo, traders might want to take into account weekly support resides close by in the form of a 2020 yearly opening value at 1.2975, as well as daily support coming in at 1.2973 (essentially marking the same region).

Areas of consideration:

  • Immediate support could arise from the 1.30 level on the H4 timeframe this morning, with buyers also perhaps recognising the barrier comes with a Quasimodo support at 1.2997.
  • A H4 close south of 1.30 underlines intraday bearish scenarios, though sellers must take into account weekly and daily support are stationed nearby around 1.2975.
  • A fakeout through 1.30 to welcome buyers off weekly/daily supports at 1.2975ish could arise. A reaction off higher timeframe supports, fuelled on sell-stop liquidity, may see buyers close back above 1.30, a move that may attract additional buyers back to September’s opening value at 1.3043.

USD/CHF:

For those who have been following our USD/CHF analysis over the past few days, technical traders will acknowledge the recent recovery from H4 support at 0.9075-0.9088 and, of course, the whipsaw through 0.91. The retest of the noted round number yesterday, a move highlighted as a possibility in Tuesday’s technical briefing, could lead buyers to test H4 trend line resistance, extended from the high 0.9295, followed by November’s opening value at 0.9161.

Action on the higher timeframes, however, remains pretty much unmoved, with daily price chalking up back-to-back indecision doji candles.

Weekly timeframe:

The prior week witnessed buyers strongly rebound from support at 0.9014, a level dovetailing closely with ABCD support at 0.9051 (black arrows). Bid/offers, however, were even last week, finishing unmoved.

0.9255 resistance (a prior Quasimodo support) is next in the firing range should buyers support this market, with a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement ratio forged at 0.9388 to target should further buying emerge (an initial take-profit zone associated with the ABCD support mentioned above).

It should also be noted this market has been trending lower since April 2019.

Daily timeframe:

From the daily timeframe, price remains languishing south of resistance at 0.9187. While Quasimodo support at 0.9009 represents a possible downside objective on this chart, it’s worth acknowledging trend line resistance also resides close by, taken from the high 0.9901.

Areas of consideration:

  • Room to discover higher levels on the bigger picture suggests H4 buyers out of 0.9075-0.9088 and off 0.91 could see H4 trend line resistance and November’s opening value at 0.9161 enter play today.
  • Beyond 0.9075-0.9088, assuming a lack of commitment from buyers, bearish themes could develop towards September’s opening value at 0.9038, followed by the 0.90 level.

Dow Jones Industrial Average:

US stocks finished higher Tuesday, with the Dow topping 30,000 for the first time in history. The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 454.97 points, or 1.54%; the S&P 500 traded higher by 57.82 points, or 1.62%, and the Nasdaq ended higher by 156.15 points, or 1.31%.

With the unit closing north of 30,000 and retesting the latter on the H4 scale in the shape of a hammer candlestick pattern, buyers could defend 30,000 given limited resistance until reaching a 127.2% H4 Fibonacci projection point at 30,414. Should 30,000 give way, H4 support at 29,518 is in sight.

Areas of consideration:

  • Buyers observing H4 price holding 30,000 could be enough to stir additional buying, targeting the 2% H4 Fibonacci projection at 30,414.

XAU/USD (GOLD):

Spot gold registered a second day of losses Tuesday, down 1.7% against the US dollar.

Despite the precious metal discovering lower levels amid COVID-19 vaccine developments (moves that drove equities sharply higher), H4 action recently revealed mild respite off the $1,800 level and a Quasimodo support level at $1,802.

H4 buyers, however, may struggle to find a foothold off $1,800 as daily action reveals a possible fakeout through $1,800 into the 200-day SMA (orange – $1,797).

Areas of consideration:

  • H4 whipsawing through $1,800 to test the 200-day SMA on the daily timeframe at $1,797 is a scenario worth keeping an eye out for. Buyers defending the SMA and printing a H4 close back above $1,800 may invite additional buyers into the fight.
  • Holding south of $1,800, on the other hand, could fuel continuation selling towards weekly support at $1.787.

The accuracy, completeness and timeliness of the information contained on this site cannot be guaranteed. IC Markets does not warranty, guarantee or make any representations, or assume any liability regarding financial results based on the use of the information in the site.

News, views, opinions, recommendations and other information obtained from sources outside of www.icmarkets.com.au, used in this site are believed to be reliable, but we cannot guarantee their accuracy or completeness. All such information is subject to change at any time without notice. IC Markets assumes no responsibility for the content of any linked site.

The fact that such links may exist does not indicate approval or endorsement of any material contained on any linked site. IC Markets is not liable for any harm caused by the transmission, through accessing the services or information on this site, of a computer virus, or other computer code or programming device that might be used to access, delete, damage, disable, disrupt or otherwise impede in any manner, the operation of the site or of any user’s software, hardware, data or property

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Full Article


Tuesday 24th November: Markets cheer vaccine news
Tuesday 24th November: Markets cheer vaccine news

Tuesday 24th November: Markets cheer vaccine news

90207   November 24, 2020 15:49   ICMarkets   Market News  

Global Markets:

  • Asian Stock Markets : Nikkei up 2.50%, Shanghai Composite down 0.34%, Hang Seng up 0.09%, ASX up 1.26%
  • Commodities : Gold at $1826.40 (-0.62%), Silver at $23.46 (-0.75%), Brent Oil at $46.42 (+0.83%), WTI Oil at $43.48 (+0.98%)
  • Rates : US 10-year yield at 0.867, UK 10-year yield at 0.323, Germany 10-year yield at -0.568

News & Data:

  • (USD) Flash Manufacturing PMI 56.7 vs 52.5 expected
  • (GBP) Flash Services PMI 45.8 vs 43.2 expected
  • (GBP) Flash Manufacturing PMI 55.2 vs 50.5 expected
  • (EUR) Flash Services PMI 41.3 vs 42.2 expected
  • (EUR) Flash Manufacturing PMI 53.6 vs 53.2 expected
  • (EUR) German Flash Services PMI 46.2 vs 46.1 expected
  • (EUR) German Flash Manufacturing PMI 57.9 vs 56 expected
  • (EUR) French Flash Manufacturing PMI 49.1 vs 50.2 expected
  • (EUR) French Flash Services PMI 38 vs 39.2 expected
  • UN says Japan violated rights of former Nissan chief Ghosn
  • Trump says recommended GSA administration to start transition protocols

Markets Update:

Asian stock markets, led by Japan, are mostly higher on Tuesday following the positive cues overnight from Wall Street after British pharmaceutical giant AstraZeneca said its coronavirus vaccine candidate being developed in collaboration with Oxford University had an average efficacy of 70 percent.

Investor sentiment also received a boost following news that the Trump administration has officially commenced the transition process to U.S. President-elect Joe Biden, and Biden has chosen former U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen to be Treasury Secretary

Mainland Chinese markets, on the other hand, were lower by the afternoon: the Shanghai composite and the Shenzhen component both dipped 0.3%. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index was slightly higher. In afternoon trade, the Nikkei 225 jumped 2.5% while the Topix index advanced 2%. In Australia, the S&P/ASX 200 gained 1.5%.

Oil prices added to last week’s gains as traders anticipated the vaccine news would spur a recovery in energy demand. The dollar index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of six major rivals, nudged down to 92.406 while the euro gained 0.11% on the day to $1.1853.

Upcoming Events:

  • 03:00 PM GMT – (USD) CB Consumer Confidence
  • 08:00 PM GMT – (NZD) RBNZ Financial Stability Report

Full Article

Tuesday 24th November: Technical Outlook and Review

Tuesday 24th November: Technical Outlook and Review

90102   November 24, 2020 09:17   ICMarkets   Market News  

Key risk events today:

US CB Consumer Confidence; RBNZ Financial Stability Report.

(Previous analysis as well as outside sources – italics).

EUR/USD:

1.19 and H4 Quasimodo resistance at 1.1895 came forward Monday and guided EUR/USD sharply lower, spiking through H4 support at 1.1820 and testing the 1.18 handle. H4 Quasimodo support priced in at 1.1779 is in line should 1.18 give way. Landscape north of 1.19, on the other hand, shifts light towards September’s opening value at 1.1937.

From the weekly timeframe, Monday’s technical briefing aired the following (italics):

Despite healthy interest off support at 1.1621 early November, recent weeks exhibited an uninspiring tone.

Should buyers regain consciousness, the 2018 yearly opening value at 1.2004, closely shadowed by Quasimodo resistance priced at 1.2092, are on show.

Traders may also want to acknowledge July’s trend line resistance break, taken from the high 1.2555, on top of the break of the 1.1495 March 9 swing high, consequently placing long-term buyers in a reasonably healthy position.

Aside from the daily timeframe finishing Monday in the shape of a long-legged doji pattern, structure remains unchanged from Monday’s technical briefing (italics):

November 9 witnessed fresh highs form (red arrow), following a spike to lows ahead of support at 1.1594 and a 50.0% retracement ratio from 1.1582. For some, this may be understood as bullish confirmation. In terms of resistance, however, 1.1940, followed by Quasimodo resistance from 1.1965, is seen nearby.

Traders may also recognise that just beyond the aforementioned resistances, weekly resistance at 1.2004 is seen (2018 yearly opening value).

Areas of consideration:

  • 18 is likely watched in this market. Sell-stop liquidity resting south of this round number (protective stop-loss orders and breakout sellers’ orders) may also tempt a fakeout lower to draw in fresh buyers from H4 Quasimodo support at 1.1779.
  • 19 and H4 Quasimodo resistance at 1.1895 also remains watched resistance, following yesterday’s sizeable retracement.
  • Possible breakout buying north of 1.19 on the H4, targeting September’s opening value at 1.1937.
  • September’s opening value on the H4 and daily resistance at 1.1940 marks healthy confluence to work with if a breach of 1.19 occurs.

GBP/USD:

Following a jump to highs at 1.3397, testing a H4 resistance zone between 1.3425/1.3368 (made up of two 127.2% Fibonacci projection points at 1.3425/1.3368, the round number 1.34, an 88.6% Fibonacci retracement ratio at 1.3390 and September’s opening value at 1.3368), GBP/USD made a sharp U-turn amid USD strength on healthy PMI figures.

Monday’s move lower bumped H4 candles into limit orders at 1.33, with many sell-stops likely triggered on the whipsaw to lows at 1.3263.

From the weekly timeframe, after rejecting the 2019 yearly opening value from 1.2739 in September, buyers eventually mustered enough strength to take on the 2020 yearly opening value at 1.3250 last week and record a third consecutive weekly gain. Additional strength could have the unit knock on the door of the 2018 yearly opening value from 1.3503. Technically, however, the immediate trend has remained lower since topping in 2014.

The technical picture from the daily timeframe shows price tipped marginally over the upper edge of the bearish harmonic Gartley pattern’s PRZ at 1.3384/1.3312 on Monday. A show from sellers here could lead to the 38.2% Fibonacci support at 1.3118 being tested, commonly read as an initial take-profit target (arranged from legs A-D of the Gartley [tested earlier this month]). Overthrowing the aforementioned PRZ could be viewed as an early cue we’re headed for the 2018 yearly opening value at 1.3503 on the weekly scale.

Areas of consideration:

  • With price movement probing south of 1.33 to lows at 1.3263 potentially tripping stops, and daily price rejecting the bearish harmonic Gartley pattern’s PRZ at 1.3384/1.3312, sellers may continue lower to test weekly support at 1.3250 today, with a break targeting the 1.32 handle.

AUD/USD:

Monday had the Australian dollar retreat sub 0.73 against the US dollar, leaving H4 Quasimodo resistance at 0.7342 unchallenged. Aside from last Thursday’s low at 0.7254, H4 sellers could be watching 0.72, 0.7209 and 0.7222.

The weekly timeframe’s technical structure remains unchanged:

A substantial 3% showing off the 2020 (0.7016) and 2019 (0.7042) yearly opening values (supports) early November has positioned the unit within striking distance of resistance at 0.7379. 

In view of this market trending higher since early 2020, buyers may also be eyeballing resistance parked at 0.7495.

The daily timeframe’s structure also unchanged as of Monday’s close:

The November 13 retest of support at 0.7235, despite a somewhat lacklustre performance last week, adds weight to increased interest to the upside. 

This may also sweet-talk buyers to attempt to take a run at resistance at 0.7393 (positioned above weekly resistance).

Areas of consideration:

  • 73 may be a level sellers watch for resistance today, having seen room to move lower on the higher timeframes. Beyond last Thursday’s low at 0.7254, daily support is present at 0.7235, followed by H4 supports at 0.72, 0.7209 and 0.7222.

USD/JPY:

Sellers, as evident from the H4, failed to find acceptance beneath the 104 handle on Monday amidst stronger-than-anticipated US PMI figures. This led to price forcefully moving into November’s opening value at 104.50, piercing the level to register session peaks at 104.63. Conquering the latter today perhaps clears the river north toward 105, swinging the pendulum in favour of breakout buying strategies.

Against the backdrop of the H4 timeframe, weekly price, since connecting with the underside of supply at 108.16-106.88 in August, price has gradually shifted lower and developed a declining wedge (106.94/104.18). Quasimodo support at 102.55 is in the picture, with a break exposing support plotted at 100.61. A strong bounce from 102.55 may provide enough impetus for buyers to attempt a breakout above the current declining wedge.

The technical landscape from the daily timeframe, however, reveals scope to close in on trend line resistance, extended from the high 111.71, with a break to perhaps take a run at resistance from 106.06. Nevertheless, sellers taking over could lead price to the 103.17 November 6 low, followed by weekly Quasimodo support at 102.55.

Areas of consideration:

  • Price action responding from November’s opening value at 104.50 on the H4 scale may invite sellers, yet given room to attack higher space on the higher timeframes could have buyers make an appearance to approach the 105 region.

USD/CAD:

Since the beginning of last week, H4 candles constructed a well-defined range between micro Quasimodo resistance at 1.3118 (located just above the 1.31 handle) and September’s opening value at 1.3043. Monday, as you can see, remained confined within the aforementioned range.

Areas of interest outside of this newly formed consolidation are the key figure 1.30 (a widely watched level in this market that’s joined by a Quasimodo support [red arrow] around 1.2997) and the 1.3172 November 13 high, followed by the 1.32 base.

In terms of the higher timeframes, limited changed has been seen:

Weekly perspective:

The 2020 yearly opening value at 1.2975, arranged north of Quasimodo support priced in at 1.2887, recently triggered a wave of buying, though lacked follow-through last week. Increased interest to the upside, nevertheless, could eventually fuel a test of the 2017 yearly opening value at 1.3434, sheltered under trend line support-turned resistance, taken from the low 1.2061.

Given this market has traded lower since topping at 1.4667 in early 2020, though, breaking the aforementioned supports remains an option, consequently swinging the pendulum in favour of further weakness towards the 2018 yearly opening value at 1.2579.

Daily perspective:

With weekly price rebounding from support at 1.2975 as well as daily price also recently coming off support at 1.2973 (essentially marking the same area), flow on the daily chart, despite the tame movement of late, reveals room to rally as far north as 1.3330.

Areas of consideration:

  • Range traders may be drawn to the H4 scale, monitoring range limits for bullish/bearish scenarios.
  • A H4 close north of 1.3118/1.31 may nudge breakout buyers. Reinforced on the back of higher timeframe supports recently entering the fray, buyers may attempt to lift the pair towards the 1.3172 November 13 high and 1.32 region. Conservative traders may seek a 1.31 retest before committing.
  • 30, with the level sited 25 pips above weekly support at 1.2975 (2020 yearly opening level), is also an area to be aware of.

USD/CHF:

For those who read Monday’s technical briefing, you may recall the piece underlined the following (italics):

0.91/H4 support at 0.9075-0.9088 is an area buyers may continue to watch for bullish themes this week.

As can be seen from the H4 scale, price responded strongly from the 0.9075-0.9088 area on Monday, bolstered on robust US data (if you visit the H1 chart, the red line at 0.9079 marks a Quasimodo resistance-turned support). Trend line resistance, extended from the high 0.9295, and November’s opening value at 0.9161, are on show as possible resistance levels.

Action on the higher timeframes is pretty much unmoved, therefore here’s a reminder of where we left things ahead of Monday’s session:

Weekly timeframe:

The prior week witnessed buyers strongly rebound from support at 0.9014, a level dovetailing closely with ABCD support at 0.9051 (black arrows). Bid/offers, however, were even last week, finishing unmoved.

0.9255 resistance (a prior Quasimodo support) is next in the firing range should buyers support this market, with a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement ratio forged at 0.9388 to target should further buying emerge (an initial take-profit zone associated with the ABCD support mentioned above).

It should also be noted this market has been trending lower since April 2019.

Daily timeframe:

From the daily timeframe, price remains languishing south of resistance at 0.9187. While Quasimodo support at 0.9009 represents a possible downside objective on this chart, it’s worth acknowledging trend line resistance also resides close by, taken from the high 0.9901.

Areas of consideration:

  • Room to discover higher levels on the bigger picture suggests H4 buyers out of 0.9075-0.9088 could see H4 trend line resistance and November’s opening value at 0.9161 enter play today/tomorrow.
  • A retest at 0.91 on the H4, however, may play out prior to pushing higher, which could be interpreted as an area to either initiate fresh long positions or even pyramid current positions.

Dow Jones Industrial Average:

US equity benchmarks received a late lift Monday on news President-elect Joe Biden is to nominate Janet Yellen as Treasury secretary. The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 327.79 points, or 1.12%; the S&P 500 traded higher by 20.05 points, or 0.56%, and the Nasdaq ended higher by 25.66 points, or 0.22%.

Technically on the H4 scale, the 30000 level represents resistance while swing lows at 29171 and 28908, along with the 28847 level, signifies support. A break lower also exposes September’s opening value at 28369.

The all-time peak at 30097 is a marked target on the weekly timeframe, as the Dow kicked off the week in fine form and is overlooking last week’s shooting star formation. A closer assessment of price action on the daily timeframe reveals the unit could confront declining support, taken from the high 29193, should sellers show a hand.

Areas of consideration:

  • Breaking above 30000 will likely excite breakout buyers on the H4 scale. Conservative traders, however, may seek a retest at 30000 before committing.
  • H4 support at 28847 is likely a watched level, as is September’s opening value at 28369 (alongside the 2020 yearly opening value from 28595 [weekly] and daily declining support at 29193 – yellow area on H4).

XAU/USD (GOLD):

H4 support at $1,835 is under pressure in early Asia today, following Monday’s precipitous decline. This may lead to sellers dropping to deeper water and challenging H4 support at $1,822, which happens to converge with a 161.8% Fibonacci projection point at $1,823.

Further afield, the weekly timeframe reveals price dropped through channel resistance-turned support, taken from the high $1,703, and is perhaps on course to eventually shake hands with support at $1,787. Traders, however, may want to bear in mind the price of gold remains in a decisive uptrend.

A closer examination of price action on the daily timeframe also shows the yellow metal testing support at $1,841, which merges with the lower edge of a declining falling wedge pattern between $2,015/$1,862. Another prominent level worth noting on the daily chart is the 200-day SMA (orange – $1,796).

Areas of consideration:

  • H4 support priced in at $1,835 is a level to be aware of, having seen the line merge closely with daily support at $1,841.
  • H4 support at $1,822 and the 161.8% Fibonacci projection point at $1,823 offers moderate confluence.

 

The accuracy, completeness and timeliness of the information contained on this site cannot be guaranteed. IC Markets does not warranty, guarantee or make any representations, or assume any liability regarding financial results based on the use of the information in the site.

News, views, opinions, recommendations and other information obtained from sources outside of www.icmarkets.com.au, used in this site are believed to be reliable, but we cannot guarantee their accuracy or completeness. All such information is subject to change at any time without notice. IC Markets assumes no responsibility for the content of any linked site.

The fact that such links may exist does not indicate approval or endorsement of any material contained on any linked site. IC Markets is not liable for any harm caused by the transmission, through accessing the services or information on this site, of a computer virus, or other computer code or programming device that might be used to access, delete, damage, disable, disrupt or otherwise impede in any manner, the operation of the site or of any user’s software, hardware, data or property

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Full Article


Monday 23rd November: Weekly Technical Outlook and Review

Monday 23rd November: Weekly Technical Outlook and Review

89650   November 21, 2020 22:49   ICMarkets   Market News  

Key risk events today:

Eurozone, UK and US Flash Manufacturing and Services PMIs.

(Previous analysis as well as outside sources – italics).

EUR/USD:

Weekly gain/loss: +0.18%

Weekly close: 1.1855

Weekly perspective:

Despite healthy interest off support at 1.1621 early November, recent weeks exhibited an uninspiring tone.

Should buyers regain consciousness this week, the 2018 yearly opening value at 1.2004, closely shadowed by Quasimodo resistance priced at 1.2092, are on show.

Traders may also want to acknowledge July’s trend line resistance break, taken from the high 1.2555, on top of the break of the 1.1495 March 9 swing high, consequently placing long-term buyers in a reasonably healthy position.

Daily perspective:

November 9 witnessed fresh highs form (red arrow), following a spike to lows ahead of support at 1.1594 and a 50.0% retracement ratio from 1.1582. For some, this may be understood as bullish confirmation. In terms of resistance, however, 1.1940, followed by Quasimodo resistance from 1.1965, is seen nearby.

Traders may also recognise that just beyond the aforementioned resistances, weekly resistance at 1.2004 is seen (2018 yearly opening value).

H4 perspective:

Since early last week, short-term flow has been capped just south of Quasimodo resistance at 1.1895 and the 1.19 handle. Landscape north of 1.19 shifts light towards September’s opening value at 1.1937.

1.1820, as you can see, proved efficient support over the course of the week, rebounding price on Monday and again Thursday. Space below 1.1820 highlights the round number 1.18, followed by Quasimodo support priced in at 1.1779.

Areas of consideration:

  • 18 is likely watched in this market this week. Sell-stop liquidity resting south of this round number (protective stop-loss orders and breakout sellers’ orders) may also tempt a fakeout lower to draw in fresh buyers from H4 Quasimodo support at 1.1779.
  • 19 and H4 Quasimodo resistance at 1.1895 may come forward. Although this area will contain pending sell orders, higher timeframe resistance is not observed around this region.
  • Possible breakout buying north of 1.19 on the H4, targeting September’s opening value at 1.1937.
  • September’s opening value on the H4 and daily resistance at 1.1940 marks healthy confluence to work with if a breach of 1.19 occurs.

GBP/USD:

Weekly gain/loss: +0.69%

Weekly close: 1.3283

Weekly perspective:

After rejecting the 2019 yearly opening value from 1.2739 in September, buyers eventually mustered enough strength to take on the 2020 yearly opening value at 1.3250 last week and record a third consecutive weekly gain.

Additional strength could have the unit knock on the door of the 2018 yearly opening value from 1.3503 this week.

Technically, however, the immediate trend has remained lower since topping in 2014.

Daily perspective:

Sellers welcomed the bearish harmonic Gartley pattern’s PRZ at 1.3384/1.3312 on Wednesday for a second time this month, establishing a shooting star pattern.

Unlike earlier in the month, however, sellers have so far failed to deliver much downside, with 38.2% Fibonacci support at 1.3101 lying in wait, commonly read as an initial take-profit target (arranged from legs A-D of the Gartley).

Overthrowing the aforementioned PRZ could be viewed as an early cue we’re headed for the 2018 yearly opening value at 1.3503 on the weekly scale.

H4 perspective:

Although cable presented indecisive posture Friday, the pair, overall, remains underpinned as EU and UK officials echo an optimistic tone surrounding a possible Brexit deal.

Friday’s narrow range kept price shelved sub 1.33, with neither side willing to commit. Absorbing offers around 1.33 this week shines the spotlight on a particularly interesting base of resistance (yellow), made up of two 127.2% Fibonacci projection points at 1.3425/1.3368, the round number 1.34, an 88.6% Fibonacci retracement ratio at 1.3390 and September’s opening value at 1.3368.

Areas of consideration:

  • 33 remains a key level on the H4 scale, tied in closely with the lower edge of the daily bearish harmonic Gartley pattern’s PRZ at 1.3384/1.3312. Sellers from this area will likely be eyeing the 1.32 base as an initial target.
  • Above 1.33 this week demonstrates a relatively clear path to H4 resistance drawn from 1.3425/1.3368. Conservative breakout strategies, however, may call for a 1.33 retest to form before buyers consider pulling the trigger.

AUD/USD:

Weekly gain/loss: +0.53%

Weekly close: 0.7302

Weekly perspective:

A substantial 3% showing off the 2020 (0.7016) and 2019 (0.7042) yearly opening values (supports) early November has positioned the unit within striking distance of resistance at 0.7379 this week.

In view of this market trending higher since early 2020, buyers may also be eyeballing resistance parked at 0.7495.

Daily perspective:

The November 13 retest of support at 0.7235, despite a somewhat lacklustre performance last week, adds weight to increased interest to the upside this week.

This may also sweet-talk buyers to attempt to take a run at resistance at 0.7393 (positioned above weekly resistance).

H4 perspective:

Salvaging Thursday’s losses, Friday had AUD/USD bulls make an appearance north of ABCD support at 0.7263 (black arrows) to overturn 0.73 and throw a Quasimodo formation at 0.7342 in the mix as possible resistance this week.

Absorbing 0.7342, on the other hand, turns attention towards September’s opening value coming in at 0.7376.

Areas of consideration:

  • Buyers long from H4 ABCD support at 0.7263 appear to be in a healthy position, with partial profits likely banked ahead of last week’s close.
  • Conquering 0.73 has perhaps intrigued breakout buyers, targeting H4 Quasimodo resistance at 0.7342, closely followed by September’s opening value at 0.7376.
  • Although the trend in this market has faced higher since early 2020, long-term resistance falls in between weekly resistance at 0.7379 and daily resistance from 0.7393.
  • H4 supports at 0.72, 0.7209 and 0.7222 are levels to be aware of should sellers make an appearance this week.

USD/JPY:

Weekly gain/loss: -0.70%

Weekly close: 103.82

Weekly perspective:

Since reconnecting with the underside of supply at 108.16-106.88 in August, weekly candles have gradually shifted lower and developed a declining wedge (106.94/104.18).

Quasimodo support at 102.55 is in the picture, with a break exposing support plotted at 100.61. A strong bounce from 102.55 may provide enough impetus for buyers to attempt a breakout above the current declining wedge.

Daily perspective:

Sliding south of support at 104.06 last week helps validate the pair’s bearish position, particularly as the level served well as resistance Thursday. Burrowing through this level shines the headlights on weekly Quasimodo support at 102.55.

H4 perspective:

Friday, following Thursday’s animated attempt to overthrow 104, entered a sideways consolidative phase south of the 104 mark.

Ultimately, with 104 representing resistance, moves to Quasimodo support at 103.21 will likely be eyed by sellers this week. However, additional 104 retests are not out of the question before sellers enter play.

Areas of consideration:

Outlook unchanged.

  • Bearish scenarios south of 104 remain on the table this week, targeting H4 Quasimodo support at 103.21.

USD/CAD:

Weekly gain/loss: -0.21%

Weekly close: 1.3091

Weekly perspective:

The 2020 yearly opening value at 1.2975, arranged north of Quasimodo support priced in at 1.2887, recently triggered a wave of buying though lacked follow-through last week. Increased interest to the upside this week, nevertheless, could eventually fuel a test of the 2017 yearly opening value at 1.3434, sheltered under trend line support-turned resistance, taken from the low 1.2061.

Given this market has traded lower since topping at 1.4667 in early 2020, though, breaking the aforementioned supports remains an option, consequently swinging the pendulum in favour of further weakness towards the 2018 yearly opening value at 1.2579.

Daily perspective:

With weekly price rebounding from support at 1.2975 as well as daily price also recently coming off support at 1.2973 (essentially marking the same area), flow on the daily chart, despite the tame movement of late, reveals room to rally as far north as 1.3330 this week.

H4 perspective:

Since the beginning of last week, the candles constructed a well-defined range between micro Quasimodo resistance at 1.3118 (located just above the 1.31 handle) and September’s opening value at 1.3043.

Areas of interest outside of this newly formed consolidation are the key figure 1.30 (a widely watched level in this market that’s joined by a Quasimodo support [red arrow] around 1.2997) and the 1.3172 November 13 high, followed by the 1.32 base.

Areas of consideration:

  • Range traders may be drawn to the H4 scale early week, monitoring range limits for bullish/bearish scenarios.
  • A H4 close north of 1.3118/1.31 may nudge breakout buyers. Reinforced on the back of higher timeframe supports recently entering the fray, buyers may attempt to lift the pair towards the 1.3172 November 13 high and 1.32 region. Conservative traders may seek a 1.31 retest before committing.
  • 30, with the level sited 25 pips above weekly support at 1.2975 (2020 yearly opening level), is an area to be aware of this week.

USD/CHF:

Weekly gain/loss: FLAT

Weekly close: 0.9109

Weekly perspective:

The prior week witnessed buyers strongly rebound from support at 0.9014, a level dovetailing closely with ABCD support at 0.9051 (black arrows). Bid/offers, however, were even last week, finishing unmoved.

0.9255 resistance (a prior Quasimodo support) is next in the firing range should buyers support this market, with a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement ratio forged at 0.9388 to target should further buying emerge (an initial take-profit zone associated with the ABCD support mentioned above).

It should also be noted this market has been trending lower since April 2019.

Daily perspective:

From the daily timeframe, price remains languishing south of resistance at 0.9187. While Quasimodo support at 0.9009 represents a possible downside objective on this chart, it’s worth acknowledging trend line resistance also resides close by, taken from the high 0.9901.

H4 perspective:

Early last week had price surpass the 0.91 handle and test an area of support at 0.9075-0.9088 (orange). Since then, as you can see, buyers have maintained a presence above 0.91, though so far has failed to reach trend line resistance, extended from the high 0.9295, and November’s opening value at 0.9161.

Removing the aforementioned support areas this week unearths possible selling in the direction of September’s opening value at 0.9038 and key psychological figure 0.90.

Areas of consideration:

  • 91/H4 support at 0.9075-0.9088 is an area buyers may continue to watch for bullish themes this week.
  • Bearish scenarios may arise should 0.9075-0.9088 cede ground.

Dow Jones Industrial Average:

Weekly gain/loss: -0.89%

Weekly close: 29232

Weekly perspective:

Modestly fading all-time peaks at 30097, the unit finished last week on the backfoot and established a shooting star formation. In itself, this may inspire further selling to retest the 2020 yearly opening value from 28595.

28595, therefore, could be an area dip-buyers make an appearance from this week.

Daily perspective:

A closer reading of price action on the daily timeframe reveals the unit could confront declining support, taken from the high 29193, this week. Should a break of here come to pass, support at 27640 is seen, followed by trend line support, etched from the low 18213.

H4 perspective:

Three major US equity benchmarks finished Friday lower, with the Dow Jones snapping a two week-bullish phase. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 219.75 points, or 0.75% Friday, the S&P 500 traded lower by 24.33 points, or 0.68%, and the Nasdaq also ended lower by 49.74 points, or 0.42%.

Technically on the H4 scale, the 30000 level represents resistance while 28847 continues to signify support. A break lower exposes September’s opening value at 28369.

Areas of consideration:

  • Although recently forming fresh all-time highs will likely excite buyers, a retest at the 2020 yearly opening value from 28595 is possibly on the cards before a bullish theme emerges.
  • September’s opening value at 28369, alongside the 2020 yearly opening value from 28595 and daily declining support (29193), forms interesting support to be mindful of, marked on the H4 chart (yellow).

XAU/USD (GOLD):

Weekly gain/loss: -0.98%

Weekly close: $1,870

Weekly perspective:

Weekly flow hovers within striking distance of channel resistance-turned support, taken from the high $1,703.

Testing the aforementioned support this week may have long-term traders’ crosshairs shift towards the all-time peak $2,075. Moving beyond support, however, sheds light on another layer of support at $1,787.

Traders may also want to bear in mind the price of gold remains in a decisive uptrend.

Daily perspective:

A closer examination of price action on the daily timeframe reveals the yellow metal bottoming ahead of support at $1,841. Another prominent structure on this chart is resistance at $1,928.

It is also worth highlighting a possible declining falling wedge pattern between $2,015/$1,862. Although welcoming a false breakout signal in early November to peaks north of current resistance, this remains pattern structure to be mindful of this week.

H4 perspective:

Friday extended recovery gains off Quasimodo support at $1,852, enough to make contact with November’s opening value at $1,878. Clearance of the latter this week moves two Quasimodo resistances into view at $1,890 and $1,896, with a break perhaps drawing light towards another resistance at $1,911.

Areas of consideration:

  • November’s opening value at $1,878 on the H4 scale, although delivering a mild end-of-day correction into Friday’s close, has failed to offer little in terms of resistance since the beginning of November and boasts little connection with higher timeframe levels. Therefore, charts studies suggest sellers may struggle to hold things lower here.
  • The two H4 Quasimodo resistances at $1,890 and $1,896 may draw interest this week, an area aligning with the upper boundary of the daily declining wedge.
  • H4 Quasimodo support from $1,852 remains a strong base to keep an eye on, though a modest fakeout through the level should not surprise due to weekly channel support resting nearby.
  • H4 support priced in at $1,835 is another level to be aware of, having seen the line merge closely with daily support at $1,841.

 

 

The accuracy, completeness and timeliness of the information contained on this site cannot be guaranteed. IC Markets does not warranty, guarantee or make any representations, or assume any liability regarding financial results based on the use of the information in the site.

News, views, opinions, recommendations and other information obtained from sources outside of www.icmarkets.com.au, used in this site are believed to be reliable, but we cannot guarantee their accuracy or completeness. All such information is subject to change at any time without notice. IC Markets assumes no responsibility for the content of any linked site.

The fact that such links may exist does not indicate approval or endorsement of any material contained on any linked site. IC Markets is not liable for any harm caused by the transmission, through accessing the services or information on this site, of a computer virus, or other computer code or programming device that might be used to access, delete, damage, disable, disrupt or otherwise impede in any manner, the operation of the site or of any user’s software, hardware, data or property

 

Full Article


Rewind