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Global Markets:

• Asian Stock Markets : Nikkei up 0.58%, Shanghai Composite up 0.19%, Hang Seng up 0.87%, ASX down 0.76%
• Commodities : Gold at $1761.85 (+0.29%), Silver at $22.98 (+0.79%), Brent Oil at $75.27 (-0.53%), WTI Oil at $72.14 (-0.58%)
• Rates : US 10-year yield at 1.334, UK 10-year yield at 0.820, Germany 10-year yield at -0.291

News & Data:

• (GBP) Retail Sales m/m -0.90% vs 0.50% expected
• (USD) Unemployment Claims 332K vs 325K expected
• (USD) Philly Fed Manufacturing Index 30.7 vs 18.9 expected
• (USD) Retail Sales m/m 0.70% vs -0.70% expected
• (USD) Core Retail Sales m/m 1.80% vs -0.10% expected

Markets Update:

Asian stock markets are trading mixed on Friday, following the mixed cues overnight from Wall Street, with traders remaining cautiously optimistic about the pace of the global economic recovery from the pandemic on a strong boost in vaccinations in the region after a slow start. Traders are also weighing risks from China’s clampdown on businesses and the prospect of scale down in US Federal Reserve stimulus.

The Japanese stock market is trading modestly higher on Friday, recouping some of the losses in the previous three sessions, as traders remain optimistic that a new political leadership will implement new economic measures to alleviate the prolonged impact of the pandemic. The Australian stock market is notably lower on Friday, giving up the gains in the previous session, dragged by materials, gold miners, energy and financial stocks. Chinese markets traded slightly higher, brushing aside Evergrande concerns.

Gold recovered somewhat with the spot price trading at $1,761 per ounce, up 0.45% after falling 2.3% on Thursday as higher yields hurt the non-interest bearing metal. The U.S. dollar index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of its peers was at 92.783 following a recent jump from below 92.6.

Upcoming Events:

• 02:00 PM GMT – (USD) Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment

What happened across the Asia session?

The relative strength of the Yen, among other safe-haven counterparts, gold and CHF, pared against the US dollar, as expected.

What does it mean for the Europe and US Sessions?

A lack of major data releases today would set position considerations base on upcoming significant events next week, where the Lonnie may face volatility from its Federal Election and the Aussie receive expected dovishness in the Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes.

The Dollar Index (DXY) Update

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from DXY today?

Traders would be looking for tapering signals at next week’s FOMC meeting. The latest August jobs report and inflation, in which both came in lower-than-expected, may push a tapering announcement to the November FOMC meeting.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish

Gold (XAU) Update

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from Gold today?

The latest strength seen in the US retail sales figures eased concerns over a sharp slowdown in economic growth and raises hope for an official plan to wind down asset purchases. The precious metal would remain pressured from an improved environment for tapering.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bearish

The Euro (EUR)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from EUR today?

The ECB has refuted a story by the Financial Times that claims the central bank’s unpublished inflation estimate models predicts the 2% target being hit in 2025 and bringing forward the possibility of a rate hike.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bearish

The Swiss Franc (CHF)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from CHF today?

The multi-month resistance around the 0.9230 region is finally taken, following a much stronger-than-expected US retail sales data. The lack of data releases today should allow the 0.9230 region to act as throwback support in the event of profit taking activities before the weekend.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bearish

The Pound (GBP)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from GBP today?

UK Chancellor Sunak plans to introduce new fiscal rules to rein in borrowing in an upcoming budget next month. Public debt stands at about one-time of GDP, raising fears that a rise in interest rates would dent public finances.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bearish

The Canadian Dollar (CAD)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from CAD today?

The firm price of oil and record high inflation that could lead to further monetary tightening by the Bank of Canada is likely to support the Lonnie today.

The country will be having its Federal Election on next Monday.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish

Oil

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from Oil today?

On the supply front, oil production at the US Gulf of Mexico is likely to revert to normal levels by early next week. Currently, only about one-third of normal volumes remain shut-in. Libya’s NOC announced that crude exports are back online following protests.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bearish

DXY:

Looking at the Weekly chart price may bearish towards the 1st support at 90.346 in line with 76.4% Fibonacci retracement and 76.4% Fibonacci extension. Our bearish bias is further supported by stochastic testing resistance where price dropped in the past. Otherwise, price may be bullish towards the 1st resistance at 93.829 in line with 78.6% Fibonacci retracement and 100% Fibonacci extension.

On the Daily timeframe, Price may bearish from 1st resistance at 93.181 in line with 61.8% Fibonacci retracement  and 61.8% Fibonacci extension towards the 1st support at 91.262 in line with 50% Fibonacci retracement and 50% Fibonacci extension. Our bearish bias is further supported by MACD showing a bearish signal with the signal line above the MACD line. Otherwise, price may bullish towards the 2nd resistance at 93.829 in line with Horizontal swing high and 78.6% Fibonacci extension.

On the H4 timeframe, prices tested 1st resistance twice at 93.181 in line with 61.8% fibonacci retracement and 100% Fibonacci extension and may face bearish pressure towards the 1st support at 91.782 in line with horizontal swing low and 61.8% Fibonacci extension. Our bearish bias is further supported by stochastic testing resistance where price dropped in the past. Otherwise, price may bullish towards the 2nd resistance at 93.437 in line with 78.6% Fibonacci retracement and 127% Fibonacci extension.

Areas of consideration:

• H4 time frame, 2nd resistance of 93.437
• H4 time frame, 1st support of 91.782

XAU/USD (GOLD):

On the weekly timeframe, price is on a downward trend and might be dipping towards 1st support at 1734.42, 78.6% Fibonacci retracement. Long term buyers could look to short the market as indicators are showing bearish momentum. Breaking the 1st support will see prices dipping further to our 2nd area of support at 1676.9, between 61.8% Fibonacci extension and -61.8% Fibonacci retracement. Alternatively, we might see price rebound to the bearish trendline before dipping further.

On the Daily chart, price is hovering below our 20 EMA close to our area of 1st support at 1729.71 in line with 61.8% and 88% Fibonacci retracement. We see the possibility of prices reacting at our 1st support and experience bullish reversal towards 1st resistance at 1833.95 in line with 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and bearish trendline. Technical indicators are forecasting potential trend reversal.

On the H4 chart, price has recently experienced a major pullback and is reacting in between our 1st resistance and 1st support levels. In the short term, we see a likelihood of prices dipping further towards our 1st support at 1741.36 in line with 38% Fibonacci retracement and 161.8% Fibonacci extension. Technical indicators are signalling bearish momentum and potential for further downside. Alternatively, price may rebound to our 1st resistance at 1766.41 in line with 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.

Areas of consideration:

• 4h 1st support at 1741.36
• 4h 2nd support 1725.95

EUR/USD:

Looking at the weekly chart we can see that the price is facing bearish pressure from previous breakdown trendline resistance at 1.18940, in-line with 38.2% Fibonacci retracement. On the Daily chart, price dropped to strong first support at 1.17580, in-line with 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and 61.8% Fibonacci extension. Price could potentially have a short-term bounce today.

On the H4 timeframe price bounced from support at 1.17575, in-line with 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and 100% Fibonacci extension. As price is also on daily support, we could potentially see a short-term bounce to first resistance at 1.17885, in-line with 23.6% Fibonacci retracement, 61.8% Fibonacci extension and ascending trendline resistance. Stochastic is also at the support level where previous bounces occurred. The next resistance could potentially be at 1.18490,  in-line with 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and 127.2% Fibonacci extension.

If price drops, it could potentially swing towards first support at 1.17165, in-line with 78.6% Fibonacci retracement and 127.2% Fibonacci extension. The next potential support could be at 1.16640, in-line with 100% Fibonacci retracement and 161.8% Fibonacci extension.

Areas of consideration:

• H4 time frame, support level at 1.17165 and 1.16640
• H4 time frame, resistance level at 1.17885 and 1.18490

USD/CHF:

On the weekly, price is holding above ascending trendline support and also between 1st resistance at 0.95124 and 1st support at 0.90391. Traders should watch these levels closely for a break to see prices swing higher or drop lower. On the Daily, the price is consolidating in between the 1st support and resistance. It is seen to have a bullish movement towards the 1st resistance at 0.93683. With stochastics abiding to the ascending trendline, we can see that there is potential bullish movement.

On the H4, price is seen to be reacting in between 1st Resistance at 0.93232 and 1st Support at 0.92413 where we can see a triangle pattern formed, price has broken out of the triangle pattern on the upside and hence, shows a strong bullish momentum. Our bullish bias is further supported by the price holding above the moving average and the MACD indicator where the MACD line crossed above the signal line.

Areas of consideration:

• Watch 1st resistance at 0.93232
• Watch 1st support at 0.92413

GBP/USD:

Looking at the weekly chart, the price is facing resistance at 1.38920 and support at 1.35800. On the Daily time frame, price is consolidating above previous trendline breakout support at 1.37480, in-line with 50% Fibonacci retracement. As long as price is above this level, we shall have a slight bullish bias.

On the H4 timeframe, prices held above support at 1.37665, in-line with 78.6% Fibonacci retracement, 78.6% Fibonacci extension and ascending trendline support. We could potentially see the price bounce to first resistance at 1.39000, in-line with 78.6% Fibonacci retracement and 127.2% Fibonacci extension. RSI is also at support level where previous bounces occurred. The next potential resistance could be at 1.39485, in-line with -61.8% Fibonacci retracement and 161.8% Fibonacci extension. The prices are still making higher highs and higher lows indicating continual bullish momentum.

If price drops, it could potentially swing towards first support at 1.37210,  in-line with 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and 61.8% Fibonacci extension.  The next potential support could be at 1.36455,  in-line with 78.6% Fibonacci retracement and 161.8% Fibonacci extension.

Areas of consideration:

• H4 time frame, 37210 and 1.36455 support level
• H4 time frame, 1.39000 and 1.39485 resistance level

USD/JPY

From the weekly timeframe, price is below the descending trendline resistance, and may bearish to 1st support 107.480 in line with 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and 38.2% Fibonacci extension. Otherwise, price might move towards the 1st resistance at 111.660  in line with Horizontal Swing High and 50% Fibonacci extension.

On the Daily timeframe, price is below the descending trendline resistance and may bearish to 1st support at 108.559 in line with Horizontal Swing Low and  127.2% Fibonacci extension. Our bearish view is further supported by how MACD is shown to be holding below the 0 line. Otherwise, price might move towards the 1st resistance at 110.306 in line with 50% Fibonacci retracement and 38.2% Fibonacci extension.

On the H4  timeframe,  price is below the descending threadline resistance and may continue bearish to the 1st support at 108.722 in line with Horizontal swing low and 100% Fibonacci extension. Our bearish view is further supported by how MACD is shown to be holding below the 0 line. Otherwise, price may bullish towards the 2nd resistance at 110.306 in line with 78.6% Fibonacci retracement and 200% Fibonacci extension.

Areas of consideration:

• H4 time frame, 2nd resistance of 110.306
• H4 time frame, 1st support of 108.722

AUD/USD:

On the weekly, price is holding above the MA 100 showing bullish momentum, price is expected to push towards the first resistance in line with the 50% Fibonacci retracement level. Our bullish bias is further supported by the Stochastic indicator, where the K% line bounced off the support level. On the Daily, the price is holding above EMA 34 showing a potential bearish momentum, price bounced off from the first support in line with the 161.8% Fibonacci projection and now looking for a pull back, back to the support level.

On the H4, price is seen to have broken off the descending trendline resistance turned support and price has formed a golden cross. Price is expected to push to the new 1st Resistance level in line with 61.8% Fibonacci Retracement. Our short term bullish bias is further supported by the stochastic indicator %K line where it bounces off the support.

Areas of consideration:

• H4 1st resistance level 0.75296
• H4 1st support level 0.71677

NZD/USD:

On the weekly, price has recently bounced off 1st resistance at 0.71770, in-line with 50% Fibonacci retracement, 100% Fibonacci extension, and descending trendline and is dipping towards the 1st support at 0.68000. Swing traders may potentially enter with shorts as we see potentially a bearish momentum in line with the descending trendline. Stochastics is indicating close to an overbought situation, supporting our bearish view.

On the Daily chart, price has recently retraced to touch the bearish trendline and is on a downward trend. We foresee potentially a dip further towards our 1st support at 0.69958 with 61.8% Fibonacci extension and 50% Fibonacci retracement. Stochastics depicts an overbought situation, further supporting our bearish bias.

On the H4 timeframe, price has dipped and is consolidating within the downward channel between our 1st resistance at 0.71524 at 161.8% Fibonacci extension and 1st support at 0.70598. We see a possibility of prices reacting at our 1st support and rebounding towards our 1st resistance at 0.71524 in line with 161.8% Fibonacci extension and bearish trendline. Indicators are showing potential for trend reversal. If price breaks 1st resistance, it can potentially swing towards our 2nd resistance at 0.71733, which is a graphical swing high.

Areas of consideration:

• H4 time frame, 1st resistance at 71524
• H4 time frame, 1st support at 0.70598

USD/CAD:

On the Weekly timeframe, price tested and reacted below long term moving average and also both 38.2% and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.29882. As long as the price is holding below this level, we could potentially see the price facing further bearish pressure in the long term. On the Daily, price bounced higher and is holding between 1st resistance at 1.27620 and 1st support at 1.24934. With price holding above moving average, we see limited upside where buyers may look to push price towards 1st resistance.

On the H4, price traded sideways and is currently within a triangle pattern. Price is also holding between 1st resistance at 1.27620 and 1st support at 1.25826 as well. We prefer to remain neutral for now given there are no good levels for entry and long term indicators are mixed.

Areas of consideration:

• H4 time frame, support at 1.25826
• H4 time frame, resistance at 1.27620

OIL:

On Weekly timeframe, we can see price is above the ascending trendline support and may bullish to 1st resistance at 86.59 in line with 127.2% Fibonacci retracement and 61.8% Fibonacci extension. However, if price breaks below the ascending trendline line support, price may brearish towards the 1st support at 64.46  in line with 23.6% fibonacci retracement and 100% fibonacci extension.

On the Daily timeframe, price is above the ascending trendline support and 1st support at 70.86 in line with 50% Fibonacci retracement and 61.86% fibonacci extension. Price may bullish towards 1st resistance at 77.82 in line with horizontal swing high and 161.8% fibonacci extension. Our bullish view is further supported by how MACD is shown to be holding above the 0 line. Otherwise price may bearish towards the 1st support at 70.86 in line with 50% Fibonacci retracement and 61.86% fibonacci extension.

Lastly, on the H4 timeframe, price is above ascending trendline support and 1st support at 70.86 in line 23.6% fibonacci retracement and 50% Fibonacci extension and may potentially bullish towards the 1st resistance at 77.82 in line with 127.2% Fibonacci retracement and 100% Fibonacci extension. Our bullish view is further supported by how MACD is shown to be holding above the 0 line. Otherwise price may bearish towards the 1st support at 70.86 in line with 23.6% Fibonacci retracement and 50% Fibonacci extension.

Areas of consideration:

• H4 time frame, 1st resistance of 77.82
• H4 time frame, 1st support of 70.86

Dow Jones Industrial Average:

On the Weekly, price continues to hold between 1st support at 33270 and 1st resistance at 37770. With price holding above moving average, we still see possible bullish pressure. However with no good levels for entry, we prefer to remain neutral for now.

On the Daily chart, price drifted lower below 1st resistance at 35600. With stochastics reacting below resistance where price pulled lower in the past, it is possible to see some selling pressure push price lower towards 1st support at 33270. Otherwise, breaking above 1st resistance will see price swing higher towards 2nd resistance at 37770.

On the H4, price still holding above 1st support at 34505. We see a possibility where buyers may enter and add to their longs with a possible upside target at 1st resistance at 35199. Stochastics is testing support where price bounced in the past as well. Otherwise, breaking below 1st support will see price drop lower towards 2nd support at 34148.

Areas of consideration:

• H4 timeframe 1st support 34505

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What happened in the US session?

The US retail sales data set came in much stronger-than-expected, overcoming negative figures seen in expectations and data from the prior month. Safe-haven assets gold and CHF dropped further from the European session, following the news favouring the US dollar.

What does it mean for the Asia Session?

Amid the weakness seen on fellow safe-havens, gold and CHF, against the US dollar, relative strength in the Yen is likely to dissipate, evident from the failed attempt to make a sustained break below the lower boundary of a two-week range at 109.60.

The Dollar Index (DXY)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from DXY today?

Traders would be looking for tapering signals at next week’s FOMC meeting. The latest August jobs report and inflation, in which both came in lower-than-expected, may push a tapering announcement to the November FOMC meeting.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish

Gold (XAU)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from Gold today?

The latest strength seen in the US retail sales figures eased concerns over a sharp slowdown in economic growth and raises hope for an official plan to wind down asset purchases. The precious metal would remain pressured from an improved environment for tapering.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bearish

The Australian Dollar (AUD)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from AUD today?

A bearish spill over on the Aussie is likely from the weak labour data set and ongoing uncertainty in economic recovery due to the low vaccination rates and the persistent spread of the Delta variant. The RBA acknowledged the situation with an extension of its asset taper program to mid-February next year.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak bearish

The Kiwi Dollar (NZD)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from NZD today?

Favourable data for the Kiwi, notably with the latest GDP data set rising above expectations, is likely to cushion the strength of the US dollar derived from tapering expectations at next week’s FOMC meeting. Moreover, RBNZ is very likely to raise rates at its upcoming meeting in October.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish

The Japanese Yen (JPY)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from JPY today?

The Japanese government lowered its economic expectations for the first time in four months due to the global COVID-19 situation. Notably for the first time in 17 months, the authorities downgraded their view of production.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bearish

Dear Trader,

With the underlying Deutsche Börse exchange adding 10 companies to Germany’s flagship DAX 30 index, the Germany 30 index will become the Germany 40.

To reflect the removal of 10 companies by the underlying exchange, the Germany Mid 60 will also change to the Germany Mid 50 on the same date.

Please be informed that due to the upcoming changes in the underlying exchange, we will be creating new symbols to reflect this change.

The following changes will take place on Monday 20/09/21

There will be no changes in the margins and spreads.

Kind Regards,

IC Markets

What happened across the Asia session?

Australia’s unemployment change came in much weaker than expected. The drop in unemployment rate was due more to a lack of participation rather than an improvement in the labour market.

What does it mean for the Europe and US Sessions?

Firm oil prices and a backdrop of ongoing tapering puts the Loonie in a position of strength while setbacks in the economic recovery of Australia makes the Aussie weakest among the major currencies.

The Dollar Index (DXY)

Key news events today

Core Retail Sales m/m, 12.30pm GMT

Retail Sales m/m, 12.30pm GMT

What can we expect from DXY today?

Post retail sales figured to be released, the focus would shift to the FOMC meeting scheduled for 21-22 September. The lower-than-expected August jobs report and inflation may push a tapering announcement to the November FOMC meeting, however.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish

Gold (XAU) Update

No major news events.

What can we expect from Gold today?

The lower-than-expected rise in the US CPI raises doubts on Fed to introduce a timeline to taper asset purchases in the upcoming FOMC meeting next week, providing support to the precious metal with the US dollar and Treasury yields under pressure.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish

The Euro (EUR)

Key news events today

ECB President Lagarde Speaks, 12pm GMT

What can we expect from EUR today?

Following dovish comments from fellow policymakers, ECB President Lagarde’s speech is likely to lean more on the side of the doves. ECB’s Lane emphasised that volume of the pandemic emergency purchase programme is not indicative of the central banks stance on monetary policies.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bearish

The Swiss Franc (CHF)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from CHF today?

A light day in terms of currency-specific data should keep the Swissy in a range until the release of the US retail sales figures that could stage another attempt to break above the tested multi-month resistance around the 0.9230 region.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bearish

The Pound (GBP)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from GBP today?

The higher-than-expected CPI reported at 3.2% (expected 2.9%, prev. 2.0%) would be dismissed by the Bank of England as transitory. A persistently high CPI reading for the upcoming reports may alter the central bank’s stance on inflation.

In the central bank’s latest meeting, policymakers were split 4 – 4 between those who felt the minimum conditions for considering an interest rate hike had been met and those who thought the recovery was not strong enough.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish

The Canadian Dollar (CAD)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from CAD today?

The latest year-on-year inflation rising to its highest level in nearly 20 years at 4.1% (prev. 3.7%) may force the Bank of Canada to reconsider its stance on inflation being transitory, especially if record high CPI continues to be registered in upcoming reports.

With tapering already in progress, the possibility of a sooner-than-expected rate hike would follow a persistently high CPI data.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish

Oil

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from Oil today?

According to the US Energy Information Administration, crude stocks fell 6.4m barrels in the week ending 10 September. The deeper-than-expected draw and expectation of a rise in demand as more countries adopt a ‘high vaccination rate’ approach to counter the Delta variant should continue to bode well for the bulls.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish

DXY:

Looking at the Weekly chart price may bearish towards the 1st support at 90.346 in line with 76.4% Fibonacci retracement and 76.4% Fibonacci extension. Our bearish bias is further supported by stochastic testing resistance where price dropped in the past. Otherwise, price may be bullish towards the 1st resistance at 93.829 in line with 78.6% Fibonacci retracement and 100% Fibonacci extension.

On the Daily timeframe, Price may bearish from 1st resistance at 93.181 in line with 61.8% Fibonacci retracement  and 61.8% Fibonacci extension towards the 1st support at 91.262 in line with 50% Fibonacci retracement and 50% Fibonacci extension. Our bearish bias is further supported by MACD showing a bearish signal with the signal line above the MACD line. Otherwise, price may bullish towards the 2nd resistance at 93.829 in line with Horizontal swing high and 78.6% Fibonacci extension.

On the H4 timeframe, prices tested 1st resistance twice at 92.921 in line with 50% fibonacci retracement and 61.8% Fibonacci extension and may face bearish pressure towards the 1st support at 91.782 in line with horizontal swing low and 61.8% Fibonacci extension. Our bearish bias is further supported by how price is seeing a negative divergence in RSI. Otherwise, price may bullish towards the 2nd resistance at 93.181 in line with 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and 100% Fibonacci extension.

Areas of consideration:

• H4 time frame, 2nd resistance of 93.181
• H4 time frame, 1st support of 91.782

XAU/USD (GOLD):

On the weekly timeframe, price is on a downward trend and might be dipping towards 1st support at 1734.42, 78.6% Fibonacci retracement. Long term buyers could look to short the market as indicators are showing bearish momentum. Breaking the 1st support will see prices dipping further to our 2nd area of support at 1681.75, 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. Alternatively, price may push closer to the bearish trendline before dipping towards our support levels.

On the Daily chart, price is hovering below our 20 EMA close to our 1st support at 1776.55 with 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. We see the possibility of a bearish scenario where prices will dip further down towards our 1st 1776.55. Technical indicators are showing bearish momentum. Breaking 1st support at 1776.55 Fibonacci 61.8% retracement will see price dipping towards 2nd support of 1729.71 at 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.

On the H4 chart, price has recently dipped and is consolidating in between our 1st resistance and 1st support levels. In the short term, we see a likelihood of prices dipping further towards our 1st support at 1780.03 in line with 50% Fibonacci retracement. Technical indicators are signalling bearish momentum. Otherwise breaking the 1st support might see prices dipping towards our 2nd support level at 1762.95, 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.

Areas of consideration:

• 4h 1st support at 1780.03
• 4h 2nd support 1762.95

EUR/USD:

Looking at the weekly chart we can see that the price is facing bearish pressure from previous breakdown trendline resistance at 1.18940, in-line with 38.2% Fibonacci retracement. On the Daily chart, price is still hovering above previous support around 1.18155, in-line with 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, 20EMA and 50MA. As long as price is above this level, we shall have a slight bullish bias.

On the H4 timeframe prices are still consolidating between resistance at 1.18560 and support at 1.17570. If price can break above first resistance at 1.18560, in-line with 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and 100% Fibonacci extension, it could potentially swing towards next resistance at 1.18900, in-line with 78.6% Fibonacci retracement and 161.8% Fibonacci extension. MACD is also indicating bullish momentum for further upside.

If price drops, it could potentially swing towards first support at 1.17570, in-line with 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and 100% Fibonacci extension. The next potential support could be at 1.17165, in-line with 78.6% Fibonacci retracement and 127.2% Fibonacci extension.

Areas of consideration:

• H4 time frame, support level at 1.17570 and 1.17165
• H4 time frame, resistance level at 1.18560 and 1.18900

USD/CHF:

On the weekly, price is holding above ascending trendline support and also between 1st resistance at 0.95124 and 1st support at 0.90391. Traders should watch these levels closely for a break to see prices swing higher or drop lower. On the Daily, the price is consolidating in between the 1st support and resistance. It is seen to have a bullish movement towards the 1st resistance at 0.0.92676. With stochastics abiding to the ascending trendline, we can see that there is potential bullish movement.

On the H4, price is seen to be reacting in between 1st Resistance at 0.92676 and 1st Support at 0.90757 where we can see a triangle pattern formed, price has broken out of the triangle pattern on the upside and hence, shows a strong bullish momentum. Our bullish bias is further supported by the price holding above the moving average.

Areas of consideration:

• Watch 1st resistance at 0.92676
• Watch 1st support at 0.90757

GBP/USD:

Looking at the weekly chart, the price is facing resistance at 1.38920 and support at 1.35800. On the Daily time frame, price is consolidating above previous trendline breakout support at 1.37480, in-line with 50% Fibonacci retracement. As long as price is above this level, we shall have a slight bullish bias.

On the H4 timeframe, prices are consolidating between resistance at 1.39000 and support at 1.37665. If price can break above first resistance at 1.39000, in-line with 78.6% Fibonacci retracement, it could potentially swing towards next resistance at 1.39485, in-line with -61.8% Fibonacci retracement and 161.8% Fibonacci extension. Price action is still making higher highs and lower lows indicating potential for further bullish upside.

If price drops, it could potentially swing towards first support at 1.37665, in-line with 78.6% Fibonacci retracement, 78.6% Fibonacci extension and horizontal overlap support. The next potential support could be at 1.37210,  in-line with 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, 61.8% Fibonacci extension and horizontal overlap support.

Areas of consideration:

• H4 time frame, 37665 and 1.37210 support level
• H4 time frame, 1.39000 and 1.39485 resistance level

USD/JPY

From the weekly timeframe, price is below the descending trendline resistance, and may bearish to 1st support 107.480 in line with 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and 38.2% Fibonacci extension. Otherwise, price might move towards the 1st resistance at 111.660  in line with Horizontal Swing High and 50% Fibonacci extension.

On the Daily timeframe, price is below the descending trendline resistance and may bearish to 1st support at 108.559 in line with Horizontal Swing Low and  127.2% Fibonacci extension. Our bearish view is further supported by how MACD is shown to be holding below the 0 line. Otherwise, price might move towards the 1st resistance at 110.306 in line with 50% Fibonacci retracement and 38.2% Fibonacci extension.

On the H4  timeframe,  price is below the descending threadline resistance and may continue bearish to the 1st support at 108.722 in line with Horizontal swing low and 100% Fibonacci extension. Our bearish view is further supported by how MACD is shown to be holding below the 0 line. Otherwise, price may bullish towards the 1st resistance at 109.743 in line with 50% Fibonacci retracement and 100% Fibonacci extension.

Areas of consideration:

• H4 time frame, 1st resistance of 109.743
• H4 time frame, 1st support of 108.722

AUD/USD:

On the weekly, price is holding above the MA 100 showing bullish momentum, price is expected to push towards the first resistance in line with the 50% Fibonacci retracement level. Our bullish bias is further supported by the Stochastic indicator, where the K% line bounced off the support level. On the Daily, the price is holding above EMA 34 showing a potential bearish momentum, price bounced off from the first support in line with the 161.8% Fibonacci projection and now looking for a pull back, back to the support level.

On the H4, price is seen to have broken off the descending trendline resistance turned support and price has formed a golden cross. Price is expected to push to the new 1st Resistance level in line with 61.8% Fibonacci Retracement. Our short term bullish bias is further supported by the stochastic indicator %K line where it bounces off the support.

Areas of consideration:

• H4 1st resistance level 0.75296
• H4 1st support level 0.71677

NZD/USD:

On the weekly, price has recently bounced off 1st resistance at 0.71770, in-line with 50% Fibonacci retracement, 100% Fibonacci extension, and descending trendline and is dipping towards the 1st support at 0.68000. Swing traders may potentially enter with shorts as we see potentially a bearish momentum in line with the descending trendline. Stochastics is indicating close to an overbought situation, supporting bearish view.

On the Daily chart, price has recently retraced to touch the bearish trendline and is hovering around our first resistance at 0.71445, in-line with 161.8%% Fibonacci extension. We foresee potentially a dip further towards our 1st support at 0.69958 with 61.8% and 50% Fibonacci retracement. Stochastics depicts an overbought situation, further supporting our bearish bias.

On the H4 timeframe, price has recently rallied and we can foresee further it climbing higher towards our 1st resistance at 71523 in line with 127.2% Fibonacci extension and bearish trendline. Indicators are showing potential for further upside.

If price breaks 1st resistance, it can potentially swing towards our 2nd resistance at 0.71733, which is a graphical swing high

Areas of consideration:

• H4 time frame, 1st resistance at 712523
• H4 time frame, 2nd resistance at 0.71733

USD/CAD:

On the Weekly timeframe, price tested and reacted below long term moving average and also both 38.2% and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.29882. As long as the price is holding below this level, we could potentially see the price facing further bearish pressure in the long term. On the Daily, price bounced higher and is holding between 1st resistance at 1.27620 and 1st support at 1.24934. With price holding above moving average, we see limited upside where buyers may look to push price towards 1st resistance.

On the H4, price drifted lower, approaching ascending trendline support and still holding above 1st support at 1.25826. We see a low probability bullish scenario where price could possibly push higher towards 1st resistance 1.27620. Otherwise breaking below 1st support will see price swing lower towards 2nd support at 1.24934.

Areas of consideration:

• H4 time frame, support at 1.25826

OIL:

On Weekly timeframe, we can see price is above the ascending trendline support and may bullish to 1st resistance at 86.59 in line with 127.2% Fibonacci retracement and 61.8% Fibonacci extension. However, if price breaks below the ascending trendline line support, price may brearish towards the 1st support at 64.46  in line with 23.6% fibonacci retracement and 100% fibonacci extension.

On the Daily timeframe, price is above the 1st support at 70.86 in line with 50% Fibonacci retracement and 61.86% fibonacci extension and price may bullish  towards 1st resistance at 77.82 in line with horizontal swing high and 161.8% fibonacci extension. Our bullish view is further supported by how MACD is shown to be holding above the 0 line. Otherwise price may bearish towards the 1st support at 70.86 in line with 50% Fibonacci retracement and 61.86% fibonacci extension.

Lastly, on the H4 timeframe, price is above ascending trendline support and 1st support at 70.86 in line 23.6% fibonacci retracement and 50% Fibonacci extension and may potentially bullish towards the 1st resistance at 77.82 in line with 127.2% Fibonacci retracement and 100% Fibonacci extension. Our bullish view is further supported by how MACD is shown to be holding above the 0 line. Otherwise price may bearish towards the 1st support at 70.86 in line with 23.6% Fibonacci retracement and 50% Fibonacci extension.

Areas of consideration:

• H4 time frame, 1st resistance of 77.82
• H4 time frame, 1st support of 70.86

Dow Jones Industrial Average:

On the Weekly, price continues to hold between 1st support at 33270 and 1st resistance at 37770. With price holding above moving average, we still see possible bullish pressure. However with no good levels for entry, we prefer to remain neutral for now.

On the Daily chart, price drifted lower below 1st resistance at 35600. With stochastics reacting below resistance where price pulled lower in the past, it is possible to see some selling pressure push price lower towards 1st support at 33270. Otherwise, breaking above 1st resistance will see price swing higher towards 2nd resistance at 37770.

On the H4, price tested and reacted above 1st support at 34505. We see a possibility where buyers may enter and add to their longs with possible upside target at 1st resistance at 35199. Stochastics is testing support where price bounced in the past as well. Otherwise, breaking below 1st support will see price drop lower towards 2nd support at 34148.

Areas of consideration:

• H4 timeframe 1st support 34505

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What happened in the US session?

Both the UK and Canada saw their respective inflation data set rising above expectation, notably with the latter’s year-on-year inflation rising to its highest in nearly 20 years at 4.1% (prev. 3.7%). Both central banks are likely to shrug off the rise in inflation as transitory, however.

What does it mean for the Asia Session?

The Kiwi is likely to outperform its peers based off from the strength in its economy, reflected by latest upside surprise in the GDP figures. RBNZ is very likely to follow-through with its stance to raise rates in its October meeting by up to 50bps.

The Dollar Index (DXY)

Key news events today

Core Retail Sales m/m, 12.30pm GMT

Retail Sales m/m, 12.30pm GMT

What can we expect from DXY today?

Post retail sales figured to be released, the focus would shift to the FOMC meeting scheduled from 21-22 September. The lower-than-expected August jobs report and inflation may push a tapering announcement to the November FOMC meeting, however.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish

Gold (XAU)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from Gold today?

The lower-than-expected rise in the US CPI raises doubts on Fed to introduce a timeline to taper asset purchases in the upcoming FOMC meeting next week, providing support to the precious metal with the US dollar and Treasury yields under pressure.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish

The Australian Dollar (AUD)

Key news events today

Employment Change, 1.30am GMT

Unemployment Rate, 1.30am GMT

What can we expect from AUD today?

The labour data is expected to come in weaker for the month of August as the Delta variant spread impedes movement. RBA has factored a worsening condition for the country, extending its asset taper program from mid-November to mid-February 2022.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak bearish

The Kiwi Dollar (NZD)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from NZD today?

The country’s GDP data set rose more than expected, with Q2 coming in at 2.8% (expected 1.1%) and 17.4% (expected 16.3%) on an annual basis. The odds of RBNZ raising rate by 50bps in the upcoming meeting in October is raised.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish

The Japanese Yen (JPY)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from JPY today?

Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) Governor Kuroda stated that policies would remain accommodative and a reduction in interest rates is possible, if deemed necessary.

The central bank expects a steady rise in inflation to 2%, though not before 2023. BoJ is committed to achieving the 2% inflation target as early as possible.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bearish

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What happened across the Asia session?

North Korea fired two ballistic missiles into the sea, according to South Korea’s military. Japan has condemned the launches and warns that the actions of the hermit state threaten the world.

What does it mean for the Europe and US Sessions?

The safe-haven currencies could gain some traction from the continued defiance from North Korea.

The upcoming inflation data for Canada and the UK is unlikely to alter the stance on their respective central banks, given that both Governors have reiterated that any upside surprise in CPI is likely transitory.

The Dollar Index (DXY)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from DXY today?

On the geo-political front, US President Biden proposed a face-face meeting with China’s President Xi in their call last week but the latter did not respond to the request. Biden has denied that Xi turned down the request.

The Delta variant would have an adverse impact on the US labour market in the short-term but the prospects for an improvement remains valid in the longer-term, according to Whitehouse advisor Desee.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish

Gold (XAU) Update

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from Gold today?

The precious metal sustained gains from the bullish reaction to the lower US CPI numbers, closing above $1,800 for the first time in a week. A dovish surprise at the US Federal Open Market Committee meeting from 21-22 September would provide further bullish impetus.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish

The Euro (EUR)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from EUR today?

News flow from Europe remains light following the latest European Central Bank decision to slow the pace of purchases under the pandemic emergency purchase programme. Focus could turn to the German elections on 26 September where polling indicates that no party is likely to gain a majority.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bearish

The Swiss Franc (CHF)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from CHF today?

The lower-than-expected inflation data set from the US kept USD/CHF below the tested multi-month resistance around the 0.9230 region.

The country’s PPI came in much higher-than-expected but data seldom drives the safe-haven currency as much as the overall global risk sentiment.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bearish

The Pound (GBP)

Key news events today

CPI y/y, 6pm GMT

What can we expect from GBP today?

UK year-on-year CPI is expected to rise to 2.9% (prev. 2.0%) but likely to be viewed by the Bank of England as transitory even if expectations materialise.

The central bank’s attention is likely to be the effects on the labour market once the Job Retention Scheme ends on 30 September. An estimated 100,000 jobs would likely be lost in the travel sector alone.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bearish

The Canadian Dollar (CAD)

Key news events today

CPI m/m, 12.30am GMT

What can we expect from CAD today?

Month-on-month CPI for Canada is expected to drop to 0.1% (prev. 0.6%) while yearly inflation measures are expected to remain unchanged. In the event of a higher-than-expected CPI data set, the Bank of Canada is likely to shrug it off as transitory, as stated in the latest central bank’s meeting in September.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bearish

Oil

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from Oil today?

China, the world’s largest importer of oil, would hold its first auction from the country’s strategic reserves in a bid to ease the cost of crude. About 7.38 million barrels of crude of different grades would be put on the market on 24 September.

On the supply front, shut-in oil production from the US Gulf of Mexico is gradually returning while Russia confirmed an output hike 10.68m barrels per day (bpd) versus the August average at 10.43m bpd.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bearish