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Friday 5th March 2021:  Powell’s comments go the wrong way
Friday 5th March 2021: Powell’s comments go the wrong way

Friday 5th March 2021: Powell’s comments go the wrong way

119219   March 5, 2021 17:40   ICMarkets   Market News  

Global Markets:

  • Asian Stock Markets : Nikkei down 0.23%, Shanghai Composite down 0.04%, Hang Seng down 0.47%, ASX down 0.74%
  • Commodities : Gold at $1692.20 (-0.50%), Silver at $25.33 (-0.51%), Brent Oil at $67.97 (+1.84%), WTI Oil at $64.88 (+1.64%)
  • Rates : US 10-year yield at 1.556, UK 10-year yield at 0.765, Germany 10-year yield at -0.291

News & Data:

  • (AUD) AIG Services Index 55.8 vs 54.3 previous
  • (USD) Natural Gas Storage -98B vs -149B expected
  • (USD) Factory Orders m/m 2.60% vs 2.20% expected
  • (USD) Unemployment Claims 745K vs 758K expected
  • (USD) Revised Unit Labor Costs q/q 6.00% vs 6.70% expected
  • (USD) Revised Nonfarm Productivity q/q -4.20% vs -4.70% expected
  • (CAD) Labor Productivity q/q -2.00% vs -2.00% expected
  • (USD) Challenger Job Cuts y/y -39.10% vs 17.40% previous
  • Indian OilMin: OPEC To Continue Production Cuts Will Undermine Recovery, Will Hurt Consumers
  • US to build anti-China missile network along first island chain

Markets Update:

Asian stocks fell on Friday as treasury yields spiked in reaction to the latest comments from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell that he expects some inflationary pressures in the time ahead.

In Japan, the Nikkei 225 slipped 0.2%while the Topix index finished its trading day 0.6% higher. South Korea’s Kospi fell 0.6%. Meanwhile, stocks in Australia also declined on the day, with the S&P/ASX 200 down 0.7%. Mainland Chinese stocks closed mixed.

The Shanghai composite and the Shenzhen component traded flat. Chinese Premier Li Keqiang announced the world’s second-largest economy would target growth of over 6% for 2021. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index closed 0.5% lower.

The U.S. dollar index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of its peers, was at 91.851 following a rise from levels below 91 seen earlier this week. Bond investors sold U.S. debt. The yield on 10-year Treasuries climbed above 1.5% though it was still below a one-year high of 1.614% struck last week.

The yield curve, a measure of economic expectations, steepened on rising yields, with the gap between two- and 10-year yields widening by another 6.3 basis points overnight.

Upcoming Events:

  • 01:30 PM GMT – (USD) Average Hourly Earnings m/m
  • 01:30 PM GMT – (USD) Non-Farm Employment Change
  • 01:30 PM GMT – (USD) Unemployment Rate
  • 03:00 PM GMT – (CAD) Ivey PMI

Full Article


Friday 5th March 2021: Technical Outlook and Review

Friday 5th March 2021: Technical Outlook and Review

119083   March 5, 2021 12:51   ICMarkets   Market News  

EUR/USD:

Looking at the weekly chart, we can see that prices broke our ascending trend line and key support level at 1.20000, where we could see a further downside before prices reach the next support target at 1.16000, which coincides with graphical swing low support level. The daily time frame echoes the same bearish view as well and we could see a further downside below our resistance level at 1.2000, with 1.17500 as the next support target.

On the H4 timeframe, prices are testing our support level at 1.19567, in line with the 61.8% fibonacci extension. We could see a limited push up above this level to test our resistance level at 1.20000, which is also the key resistance level found on the weekly and daily time frame. Keeping in mind the view on the bigger picture remains bearish, a break below our H4 support level at 1.19567 could see a further drop to our next support target at 1.18574, in line with the 100% Fibonacci extension.

Areas of consideration:

  • 19567 support area found on H4 time frame
  • 20000 resistance level found on H4 time frame

GBP/USD:

Looking at the weekly chart, we can see that prices are approaching our ascending trend line and weekly support area at 1.35000 where we could see a further downside before it reaches our support level, in line with the graphical pullback support area and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement. On the daily time frame, prices are approaching our support area at 1.37500, which coincides with the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement, 61.8% fibonacci extension and ascending trend line. Both time frames echo the same view that we could be seeing further downside before prices reach our support area.

On the H4 timeframe, prices are facing bearish pressure from our resistance area at 1.40000, in line with our graphical pullback resistance area and 38.2% fibonacci retracement. We could see a further drop below this level to test our next support level at 1.38505, which is in line with the horizontal overlap support level and 61.8% fibonacci retracement. Keeping in mind that the view on the weekly and daily time frame suggested a bigger pullback could occur, a break below the H4 support level at 1.38505 could see a further downside in prices before it reaches our next support target at 1.37500, in line with the daily support level.

Areas of consideration:

  • 40000 resistance area found on H4 time frame
  • 38505 support area found on H4 timeframe

AUD/USD:

From the Weekly timeframe, we can see that the price has returned back to the ascending trendline support drawn from 9th March (2020), where we can see it testing the support line. On the Daily timeframe, price is holding under the 38.2% fibonacci retracement, if price continues to stay under this level, we may see a  short-term bearish swing towards the trendline support level of 0.76743, in line with 78.6% Fibonacci Retracement, 127% Fibonacci extension and horizontal swing low support . On H4,  price has closed under the 0.78 major level and Daily resistance level towards the 78.6% fibonacci retracement. We can see that price has broken beneath 0.77565, and reached the target set yesterday at the 0.77 level, in line with trendline support and 127% fibonacci retracement. We may see price push lower towards Daily support at 0.76743 before a short-term pull back towards the Trendline support turned resistance.

Areas of consideration:

  • H4 shows price broken beneath ascending trendline support turned resistance, and may continue its bearish move towards major figure of 0.77
  • Weekly and Daily time frame are still showing bullish momentum.

USD/JPY

From the weekly timeframe, prices are taking support from the ascending trendline support, facing resistance from horizontal swing high resistance which coincides with 78.6% fibonacci retracement and 100% fibonacci extension. On the daily timeframe, prices have touched horizontal swing high resistance turned support which coincides with 78.6% fibonacci retracement and 50% fibonacci extension.  On H4, prices have already passed the daily support level which coincides with 127.2% fibonacci extension. Prices might pull back to the resistance turned support before bouncing higher towards the weekly resistance at 109.850. EMA is also showing a bullish pressure on price.

Areas of consideration:

  • On the H4, prices might pullback to 107.153 which coincides with the resistance turned support level on the daily timeframe
  • 850 might be a possible upside target

USD/CAD:

Looking at the weekly chart, price is still attempting to push away from the descending trendline, where it may test its previous low. It is important to note that the long-term picture has pointed the direction down (trend) since March (2020). In the daily time frame, price has tapped on to the 61.8% fibonacci retracement level before pushing up North towards the descending trendline. We may see a retest of the trendline before price pushes down. And on the H4 timeframe, price has pushed away from the 78.6% fibonacci retracement level, and reached the 1.2579 level as expected before showing a 119 pip move up North away from the support level. Currently, we may see price retesting the level of 1.26539, in line with 78.6% fibonacci retracement and horizontal graphical overlap before pushing higher towards the 127% fibonacci retracement in line with 1.27 major level.

Areas of consideration:

  • H4 may up towards 1.27 major figure, after retesting level of 6% fibonacci retracement and horizontal graphical overlap
  • Weekly and Daily time frame are showing bearish momentum.

USD/CHF:

USD/CHF has just shown a strong bullish move up to test the weekly resistance level at 0.93000, which is in line with our 161.8% Fibonacci extension and weekly descending trendline resistance. The daily chart also sees a similar move up north to test the 0.93000 weekly resistance level as it holds above the daily ascending trendline support. The 0.93000 weekly resistance level will be an important level to watch and see if price manages to hold below it.

On the H4 chart, we can see that price broke above the 0.91800 resistance area, in line with our 100% and 161.8% Fibonacci extension levels, and is now testing the 0.93000 weekly resistance level.    We note that the Stochastic indicator is also testing the upper 95.05 resistance level where it has reacted off before. We could potentially see a reversal at the 0.93000 weekly resistance level and a further move down to test the resistance-turned-support area at 0.91800 level. Otherwise, should price fail to hold below the 0.93000 level, we could see potential further bullish momentum as price pushes higher.

Areas of consideration:

  • 93000 weekly resistance level is a key level to watch, which is price is now testing
  • Price might pull back to the 0.91800 resistance-turned-support area as seen on the H4 chart.

Dow Jones Industrial Average:

On the weekly chart, price continues to hold between 32643 resistance and 29568 support. Despite price holding above the long term moving average, there remains no strong levels for entry for now. On the Daily, price tested and is currently holding above ascending trendline support. With price coming back to test the ascending support at 30695, it is possible that traders could see a bounce above this support and should be careful when deciding to trade any short term pullbacks as the bullish momentum still remains strong.

On the H4, price dipped lower and tested key Fibonacci retracement and moving average support at 30695. 30695 daily support level could be a level for buyers to consider adding to their longs. Otherwise, a break and a daily close below 30695 support will see price fall lower towards weekly support at 29568.

Areas of consideration:

  • Watch closely daily support at 30695

XAU/USD (GOLD):

On the weekly timeframe, gold pushed lower towards 1670 support which is in line with key 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. A weekly close above this support level could possibly see a bounce next week. On the daily chart, we see price drifting lower and is currently approaching weekly support at 1670. Like the weekly, a daily close above 1670 could see a bounce reaction next week.

On the 4H timeframe price pushed lower breaking previous supports. With price holding below 21 period EMA, a further push down below 1701 resistance towards weekly support at 1670 could be likely. However, failure to hold below 1701 could see price show a limited rise towards next resistance at 1723.

Areas of consideration:

  • 1670 weekly support is the key level to hold any chance of a deeper drop

The accuracy, completeness and timeliness of the information contained on this site cannot be guaranteed. IC Markets does not warranty, guarantee or make any representations, or assume any liability regarding financial results based on the use of the information in the site.

News, views, opinions, recommendations and other information obtained from sources outside of www.icmarkets.com.au, used in this site are believed to be reliable, but we cannot guarantee their accuracy or completeness. All such information is subject to change at any time without notice. IC Markets assumes no responsibility for the content of any linked site.

The fact that such links may exist does not indicate approval or endorsement of any material contained on any linked site. IC Markets is not liable for any harm caused by the transmission, through accessing the services or information on this site, of a computer virus, or other computer code or programming device that might be used to access, delete, damage, disable, disrupt or otherwise impede in any manner, the operation of the site or of any user’s software, hardware, data or property.

 

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Thursday 4th March 2021: Treasury fears put markets in reverse gear
Thursday 4th March 2021: Treasury fears put markets in reverse gear

Thursday 4th March 2021: Treasury fears put markets in reverse gear

118822   March 4, 2021 18:05   ICMarkets   Market News  

Global Markets:

  • Asian Stock Markets : Nikkei down 2.13%, Shanghai Composite down 2.05%, Hang Seng down 2.15%, ASX down 0.84%
  • Commodities : Gold at $1707.85 (-0.46%), Silver at $25.93 (-1.73%), Brent Oil at $64.19 (+0.19%), WTI Oil at $61.37 (+0.15%)
  • Rates : US 10-year yield at 1.455, UK 10-year yield at 0.753, Germany 10-year yield at -0.315

News & Data:

  • (USD) Crude Oil Inventories 21.6M vs -1.3M expected
  • (USD) ISM Services PMI 55.3 vs 58.7 expected
  • (USD) ADP Non-Farm Employment Change 117K vs 203K expected
  • Yemen Houthi Rebels say to have launched missile at (Saudi Aramco) Facility in Jeddah

Markets Update:

Asian stocks fell on Thursday as rising yields on benchmark U.S. Treasury bonds fanned worries about inflation and the economic outlook. Investors awaited U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s speech at a Wall Street Journal conference later today, where he may address concerns about the risk of a rapid rise in long-term borrowing costs.

Mainland Chinese stocks slipped on the day, with the Shanghai composite down 2.1% while the Shenzhen component dropped 3.5%. In Japan, the Nikkei 225 fell 2.1% while the Topix index shed 1.0%. South Korea’s Kospi also slipped 1.3%.Shares in Australia also declined as the S&P/ASX 200 fell 0.8%. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index closed 2.15%

The U.S. dollar index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of its peers, was at 91.049 following an earlier low of 90.972. Other safe-haven currencies were soft, with the Swiss franc flirting with a four-month low against the dollar and a 20-month trough versus the euro.

Oil prices rose for a second straight session early on Thursday, as the possibility that OPEC+ producers might decide against increasing output at a key meeting later in the day underpinned alongside a drop in U.S. fuel inventories.

Upcoming Events:

  • All Day – (All) OPEC-JMMC Meetings
  • 05:05 PM GMT – (USD) Fed Chair Powell Speaks

Full Article


Thurday 4th March 2021: Technical Outlook and Review

Thurday 4th March 2021: Technical Outlook and Review

118735   March 4, 2021 14:12   ICMarkets   Market News  

EUR/USD:

Looking at the weekly chart, we can see that prices are approaching the support area of our ascending channel at 1.200, which coincides with the 50% Fibonacci retracement and 78.6% Fibonacci extension. We could see a further upside to test our resistance area at 1.2300, in line with the graphical swing high resistance and 78.6% Fibonacci extension. On the daily time frame, prices are holding nicely above the ascending trend line and support area at 1.200 which can also be found on the weekly time frame.

On the H4 timeframe, prices bounced nicely off our support level at 1.2000, in line with the levels found on the larger time frames. Currently, prices are trading within our resistance and support area on the H4 time frame. The 1.21088 resistance area coincides with the graphical pullback resistance area and 50% Fibonacci retracement. A break above this resistance area could see a further upside to test our next resistance target at 1.22157, in line with our graphical overlap resistance area. Failure to hold above the 1.20000 support target could see a further drop to our next support level at 1.19567, in line with the graphical swing low support.

Areas of consideration:

  • 2000 support area found on H4 time frame
  • 21088 resistance level found on H4 time frame

GBP/USD:

Looking at the weekly chart, we can see that prices are approaching our ascending trend line and weekly support area at 1.35000 where we could see a further downside before it reaches our support level, in line with the graphical pullback support area and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement. On the daily time frame, prices are approaching our support area at 1.37500, which coincides with the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement, 61.8% fibonacci extension and ascending trend line. Both time frames echo the same view that we could be seeing further downside before prices reach our support area.

On the H4 timeframe, prices are facing bearish pressure from our resistance area at 1.40000, in line with our graphical pullback resistance area and 38.2% fibonacci retracement. We could see a further drop below this level to test our next support level at 1.38505, which is in line with the horizontal overlap support level and 61.8% fibonacci retracement.

Areas of consideration:

  • 40000 resistance area found on H4 time frame
  • 38505 support area found on H4 timeframe

AUD/USD:

From the Weekly timeframe, we can see that the price has returned back to the ascending trendline support drawn from 9th March (2020), where we can see a bounce from the trendline. On the Daily timeframe, price is holding under the 38.2% fibonacci retracement, if price continues to stay under this level, we may see a  short-term bearish swing towards the trendline support level of 0.76743, in line with 78.6% Fibonacci Retracement, 127% Fibonacci extension and horizontal swing low support . On H4,  price has lowered under the 0.78 major level and Daily resistance level towards the 78.6% fibonacci retracement before showing a small bounce. If price continues to push upwards, we may use the -27% fibonacci retracement as target. However, if price breaks beneath 0.77565, we can use the 0.77 level in line with trendline support and 127% fibonacci retracement as the target.

Areas of consideration:

  • Weekly time frame show bullish momentum since March (2020)
  • Daily timeframe shows bullish momentum with room for short-term pullback.
  • H4 shows price above the ascending trendline, do wait for breakout above 0.78207 to enter a long position.

USD/JPY

From the weekly timeframe, prices are taking support from the ascending trendline support, facing resistance from horizontal swing high resistance which coincides with 78.6% fibonacci retracement and 100% fibonacci extension. On the daily timeframe, prices have touched horizontal swing high resistance which coincides with 61.8% fibonacci retracement, facing bearish pressure which might push prices lower towards horizontal pullback support which coincides with 50% fibonacci retracement. On H4, prices have already touched the same daily resistance and might push towards daily support level which coincides with the H4 61.8% fibonacci retracement. Stochastics is also showing that the price is showing bearish pressure against the 94.60 level.

Areas of consideration:

  • 153 resistance level on the daily and H4 time frame is a strong resistance level
  • On the H4, prices might pullback to 106.054 which coincides with the level on the daily timeframe

USD/CAD:

Looking at the weekly chart, price has pushed away from the descending trendline, towards its previous low. It is important to note that the long-term picture has pointed the direction down (trend) since March (2020). In the daily time frame, price has managed to reverse from the Trendline resistance, continuing its bearish momentum and may push its way down South towards the 61.8% fibonacci retracement level. And on the H4 timeframe, price has has pushed down away from the 78.6% fibonacci retracement level, we may expect price to reach the 1.2579 level which is in line with the Daily support and before the -27% fibonacci retracement.

Areas of consideration:

  • H4 may push further down South to 1.2579 which is the Daily support and touching distance from the -27% fibonacci retracement.
  • Weekly, Daily and H4 timeframe are all showing bearish momentum.

USD/CHF:

USD/CHF is showing room for limited upside on the weekly chart, as we see price approaching the 0.93000 weekly resistance level, in line with our -27.2% Fibonacci retracement, 161.8% Fibonacci extension and weekly descending trendline resistance. On the daily chart, we also see price making a further rise up to test the 0.93000 weekly resistance level. We could potentially see price test this important weekly resistance level to look out for.

On the H4 chart, price is now testing the 0.91800 resistance area, which is in line with our 100% and 161.8% Fibonacci extension levels. It is worth noting that the MACD is above the 0 line, showing bullish pressure in line with our analysis. A break and close above the 0.91800 resistance area could see price rising further to test the 0.93000 weekly resistance level. Otherwise, should price hold under the 0.91800 resistance area, we could see a reversal where price could push further down south to test the support levels at 0.90800 instead.

Areas of consideration:

  • USD/CHF is showing room for limited upside on the weekly and daily charts
  • 93000 weekly resistance level is a key level to watch.

Dow Jones Industrial Average:

On the weekly chart, price continues to hold between 32643 resistance and 29568 support. Despite price holding above the long term moving average, there remains no strong levels for entry for now. On the Daily, price continues to hold very strongly above ascending trendline support. With price coming back to test the ascending support at 30662, it is possible that traders could see a bounce above this support and should be careful when deciding to trade any short term pullbacks as the bullish momentum still remains strong.

On the H4, price also still holding between 32009 resistance and weekly support at 30695. Despite technical indicators calling for further bullish upside, there remains no clear levels for entry on the intraday and there is also a bearish divergence that has been confirmed on the MACD. Traders should continue to watch resistance at 32009 and support at 30695 closely on the sidelines for any signs of market reaction.

Areas of consideration:

  • MACD indicator confirms a bearish divergence

XAU/USD (GOLD):

On the weekly timeframe, gold pushed lower breaking previous supports. Price has also broken below long term moving average. Price could very well ride the bearish momentum and drift lower towards 1670 support which is in line with key 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. On the daily chart, we see pricetrading sideways and is currently holding between 1774 resistance and 1670 support.

On the 4H timeframe price drifted lower and is forming an impending double bottom batten above support at 1707. With stochastics on support where price bounced in the past, a short term intraday bounce towards 1740 resistance could be likely before seeing any chance of a drop. However, should price fail to hold above 1707 support, traders can also expect price to drop towards next weekly support at 1670 level.

Areas of consideration:

  • 1707 intraday support to hold short term intraday bounce

The accuracy, completeness and timeliness of the information contained on this site cannot be guaranteed. IC Markets does not warranty, guarantee or make any representations, or assume any liability regarding financial results based on the use of the information in the site.

News, views, opinions, recommendations and other information obtained from sources outside of www.icmarkets.com.au, used in this site are believed to be reliable, but we cannot guarantee their accuracy or completeness. All such information is subject to change at any time without notice. IC Markets assumes no responsibility for the content of any linked site.

The fact that such links may exist does not indicate approval or endorsement of any material contained on any linked site. IC Markets is not liable for any harm caused by the transmission, through accessing the services or information on this site, of a computer virus, or other computer code or programming device that might be used to access, delete, damage, disable, disrupt or otherwise impede in any manner, the operation of the site or of any user’s software, hardware, data or property.

 

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Wednesday 3rd March 2021: Markets cheer as Treasuries out of the ventilator
Wednesday 3rd March 2021: Markets cheer as Treasuries out of the ventilator

Wednesday 3rd March 2021: Markets cheer as Treasuries out of the ventilator

118401   March 3, 2021 17:12   ICMarkets   Market News  

Global Markets:

  • Asian Stock Markets : Nikkei up 0.51%, Shanghai Composite up 1.95%, Hang Seng up 2.70%, ASX up 0.82%
  • Commodities : Gold at $1724.90 (-0.50%), Silver at $26.74 (-0.54%), Brent Oil at $62.73 (+0.05%), WTI Oil at $59.77 (+0.03%)
  • Rates : US 10-year yield at 1.427, UK 10-year yield at 0.728, Germany 10-year yield at -0.333

News & Data:

  • (AUD) GDP q/q 3.10% vs 2.50% expected
  • (CAD) GDP m/m 0.10% vs 0.10% expected
  • (AUD) Cash Rate 0.10% vs 0.10% expected
  • German service sector business activity continues to fall in February
  • Treasury Sanctions Russian Officials in Response to the Novichok Poisoning of Aleksey Navalny

Markets Update:

Asian stocks advanced on Wednesday as U.S. Treasury yields retreated and progress in U.S. stimulus talks underpinned optimism about the global economy.

Chinese stocks posted strong gains after the latest survey from Caixin showed the services sector in the country continued to expand in February, albeit at a slower pace, with a services PMI score of 51.5. That’s down from 52.0 in January.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index led gains among the region’s major markets, jumping 2.7%.. In Japan, the Nikkei 225 and Topix closed 0.51% higher. Elsewhere, the S&P/ASX 200 in Australia edged 0.8% higher.

The U.S. dollar index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of its peers, was at 90.788 — off levels above 91 seen earlier in the week. Cryptocurrency bitcoin erased early losses and rose 0.96% to $48,979. The digital asset is up 69% so far this year as it gains more acceptance in mainstream financial circles.

Oil prices bounced slightly from a two-week low overnight on expectations that OPEC+ producers will ease supply curbs at their meeting later this week as economies start to recover from the coronavirus crisis.

Upcoming Events:

  • 01:15 PM GMT – (USD) ADP Non-Farm Employment Change
  • 03:00 PM GMT – (USD) ISM Services PMI
  • 03:30 PM GMT – (USD) Crude Oil Inventories
  • 04:00 PM GMT – (GBP) MPC Member Tenreyro Speaks
  • 08:15 PM GMT – (NZD) RBNZ Gov Orr Speaks

Full Article


Wednesday 3rd March 2021: Technical Outlook and Review

Wednesday 3rd March 2021: Technical Outlook and Review

118292   March 3, 2021 13:40   ICMarkets   Market News  

EUR/USD:

Looking at the weekly chart, we can see that prices are approaching the support area of our ascending channel at 1.200, which coincides with the 50% Fibonacci retracement and 78.6% Fibonacci extension. We could see a further upside to test our resistance area at 1.2300, in line with the graphical swing high resistance and 78.6% Fibonacci extension. On the daily time frame, prices are holding nicely above the ascending trend line and support area at 1.200 which can also be found on the weekly time frame.

On the H4 timeframe, prices bounced nicely off our support level at 1.2000, in line with the levels found on the larger time frames. Currently, prices are approaching our resistance area at 1.21088 found on the H4 time frame, which coincides with the graphical pullback resistance area and 50% Fibonacci retracement. A break above this resistance area could see a further upside to test our next resistance target at 1.22157, in line with our graphical overlap resistance area.

Areas of consideration:

  • 2000 support area found on H4 time frame
  • 21088 resistance level found on H4 time frame

GBP/USD:

Looking at the weekly chart, we can see that prices are approaching our ascending trend line and weekly support area at 1.35000 where we could see a further downside before it reaches our support level, in line with the graphical pullback support area and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement. On the daily time frame, prices are approaching our support area at 1.37500, which coincides with the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement, 61.8% fibonacci extension and ascending trend line. Both time frames echo the same view that we could be seeing further downside before prices reach our support area.

On the H4 timeframe, prices are facing bearish pressure from our resistance area at 1.40000, in line with our graphical pullback resistance area and 38.2% fibonacci retracement. We could see a further drop below this level to test our next support level at 1.38505, which is in line with the horizontal overlap support level and 61.8% fibonacci retracement.

Areas of consideration:

  • 40000 resistance area found on H4 time frame
  • 38505 support area found on H4 timeframe

AUD/USD:

From the Weekly timeframe, we can see that the price has returned back to the ascending trendline support drawn from 9th March (2020), where we witnessed  a further bounce up North away from the trendline support. On the Daily timeframe, price has closed above the ascending trendline and the Daily resistance turned-support level at 0.78053. On H4,  price has broken and retested the 0.78 major level, in line with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and Daily resistance level. We may expect a further push upside towards the 61.8% fibonacci retracement and horizontal graphical overlap level.

Areas of consideration:

  • H4 retested support zone of 0.78329, may continue bullish move towards 0.78833.
  • Weekly and Daily time frame are showing bullish momentum.

USD/JPY

From the weekly timeframe, we can see that the price is facing bullish pressure from the ascending trendline support and horizontal swing low support, towards the horizontal swing high resistance level which coincides with 78.6% fibonacci retracement and 100% fibonacci extension. On the daily time frame, prices are bouncing off from horizontal pullback support which coincides with 50% retracement level towards the horizontal swing high resistance which coincides with 50% fibonacci extension and 78.6% fibonacci retracement. On the H4, prices might either push higher to reach the daily resistance level which coincides with 127.2% fibonacci extension or pullback towards 106.054 level which is the daily support, coinciding with 61.8% fibonacci extension level, before pushing up again to reach the daily resistance target. EMA is also below prices, showing bullish pressure for price.

Areas of consideration:

  • 050 resistance level on the daily and H4 time frame is a possible upside target
  • On the H4, prices might first pullback to the 106.054 support level which coincides with 61.8% fibonacci extension before pushing higher towards the resistance

USD/CAD:

Looking at the weekly chart, price has pushed away from the descending trendline, towards its previous low. It is important to note that the long-term picture has pointed the direction down (trend) since March (2020). In the daily time frame, price has managed to reverse from the Trendline resistance, continuing its bearish momentum and may push its way down South towards the 61.8% fibonacci retracement level. And on the H4 timeframe, price has closed under the 61.8% fibonacci retracement level at 1.26250, and is currently retesting the level. We may expect price to reach the 1.2579 level which consist of 88% Fibonacci

Extension, 61.8% and -61.8% Fibonacci retracement.

Areas of consideration:

  • H4 may push further down South to 1.2579 level consisting of 88% Fibonacci Extension, 61.8% and -61.8% Fibonacci retracement.
  • Weekly, Daily and H4 timeframe are all showing bearish momentum.

USD/CHF:

On the weekly chart, USD/CHF is showing a strong bullish move up to test our weekly resistance level at 0.93000, which is in line with our -27.2% Fibonacci retracement, 161.8% Fibonacci extension and the weekly descending trendline resistance as well. On the daily chart, we could potentially see more upside before price tests the weekly resistance at 0.93000, as price continues to hold above the daily ascending trendline support.

On the H4 chart, we can see that price is facing resistance at 0.91800 level, in line with our 100% and 161.8% Fibonacci extension levels. We could potentially see a slight pullback to our support level at 0.90800 level, which is in line with our 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and 161.8% Fibonacci extension levels, before further upside to test our weekly 0.93000 resistance level. Do note that the MACD indicator is also above the 0 line, indicating bullish pressure.

Areas of consideration:

  • USD/CHF is showing room for further upside on the weekly and daily charts
  • Price could potentially pull back to the 0.90800 level before continuing with further bullish momentum.
  • 93000 weekly resistance level is a key level to watch.

Dow Jones Industrial Average:

On the weekly chart, price continues to hold between 32643 resistance and 29568 support. Despite price holding above the long term moving average, there remains no strong levels for entry for now. On the Daily, price continues to hold very strongly above ascending trendline support. With price coming back to test the ascending support at 30662, it is possible that traders could see a bounce above this support and should be careful when deciding to trade any short term pullbacks as the bullish momentum still remains strong.

On the H4, price also still holding between 32009 resistance and weekly support at 30695. Despite technical indicators calling for further bullish upside, there remains no clear levels for entry on the intraday. Traders should continue to watch resistance at 32009 and support at 30695 closely on the sidelines for any signs of market reaction.

Areas of consideration:

  • Indicators remain bullish with no clear levels of entry

XAU/USD (GOLD):

On the weekly timeframe, gold pushed lower breaking previous supports. Price has also broken below long term moving average. Price could very well ride the bearish momentum and drift lower towards 1670 support which is in line with key 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. On the daily chart, we see pricetrading sideways and is currently holding between 1774 resistance and 1670 support.

On the 4H timeframe price testing and reacted above 1717 support which is also in line with Key 100% Fibonacci extension level. With stochastics on support where price bounced in the past, a short term intraday bounce towards 1774 weekly resistance could be likely before seeing any chance of a drop. However, should price fail to hold above 1717 support, traders can also expect price to drop towards next weekly support at 1670 level.

Areas of consideration:

  • 1717 intraday support to hold short term intraday bounce

The accuracy, completeness and timeliness of the information contained on this site cannot be guaranteed. IC Markets does not warranty, guarantee or make any representations, or assume any liability regarding financial results based on the use of the information in the site.

News, views, opinions, recommendations and other information obtained from sources outside of www.icmarkets.com.au, used in this site are believed to be reliable, but we cannot guarantee their accuracy or completeness. All such information is subject to change at any time without notice. IC Markets assumes no responsibility for the content of any linked site.

The fact that such links may exist does not indicate approval or endorsement of any material contained on any linked site. IC Markets is not liable for any harm caused by the transmission, through accessing the services or information on this site, of a computer virus, or other computer code or programming device that might be used to access, delete, damage, disable, disrupt or otherwise impede in any manner, the operation of the site or of any user’s software, hardware, data or property.

 

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Tuesday 2nd March 2021: Markets lower in cautious trade
Tuesday 2nd March 2021: Markets lower in cautious trade

Tuesday 2nd March 2021: Markets lower in cautious trade

117950   March 2, 2021 17:49   ICMarkets   Market News  

Global Markets:

  • Asian Stock Markets : Nikkei down 0.86%, Shanghai Composite down 1.21%, Hang Seng down 1.21%, ASX down 0.40%
  • Commodities : Gold at $1719.20 (-0.22%), Silver at $26.09 (-2.19%), Brent Oil at $63.08 (-0.96%), WTI Oil at $60.10 (-0.89%)
  • Rates : US 10-year yield at 1.424, UK 10-year yield at 0.750, Germany 10-year yield at -0.328

News & Data:

  • (AUD) Cash Rate 0.10% vs 0.10% expected
  • (USD) ISM Manufacturing PMI 60.8 vs 58.7 expected
  • (USD) Final Manufacturing PMI 58.6 vs 58.5 expected
  • (CAD) Manufacturing PMI 54.8 vs 54.4 previous
  • (GBP) Final Manufacturing PMI 55.1 vs 54.9 expected
  • German unemployment unexpectedly rises in February

Markets Update:

Asian stocks fell broadly on Tuesday despite sharp gains on Wall Street overnight on positive vaccine and stimulus news.

Shares in mainland China were lower on the day, with the Shanghai composite down 1.2% while the Shenzhen component shed 0.7%. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index was more than 1% lower. In Japan, the Nikkei 225 fell 0.9% while the Topix index dipped 0.4% to finish its trading day. Meanwhile, Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 closed 0.4% lower.

Overnight, U.S. stocks rose the most in months as Treasury yields dropped, the House passed a $1.9 trillion coronavirus relief bill, manufacturers reported strong growth in activity in February and a third Covid-19 vaccine headed to clinics and pharmacies across the country.

The U.S. dollar index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of its peers, was at 91.231 as it largely held on to gains from late February when it rose from levels below 90.

Upcoming Events:

  • 01:30 PM GMT – (CAD) GDP m/m

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Tuesday 2nd March 2021: Technical Outlook and Review

Tuesday 2nd March 2021: Technical Outlook and Review

117837   March 2, 2021 11:49   ICMarkets   Market News  

EUR/USD:

Looking at the weekly chart, we can see that prices are approaching the support area of our ascending channel at 1.200, which coincides with the 50% Fibonacci retracement and 78.6% Fibonacci extension. We could see a further upside to test our resistance area at 1.2300, in line with the graphical swing high resistance and 78.6% Fibonacci extension. On the daily time frame, prices are holding nicely above the ascending trend line and support area at 1.200 which can also be found on the weekly time frame.

On the H4 timeframe, prices are testing our support level at 1.20336, in line with our graphical swing low support and a break below this level could see a further drop to our next support area at 1.19573 – 1.20000, in line with the support area found on the daily and weekly time frame.

Areas of consideration:

  • 20336 support area found on H4 time frame
  • 21088 resistance level found on H4 time frame

GBP/USD:

Looking at the weekly chart, we can see that prices are approaching our ascending trend line and weekly support area at 1.35000 where we could see a further downside before it reaches our support level, in line with the graphical pullback support area and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement. On the daily time frame, our support area at 1.37500 coincides with the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement and ascending trend line.

On the H4 timeframe, prices are facing bearish pressure from our resistance area at 1.40000, in line with our graphical pullback resistance area and 38.2% fibonacci retracement. We could see a further drop below this level to test our next support level at 1.38505, which is in line with the horizontal overlap support level and 61.8% fibonacci retracement.

Areas of consideration:

  • 40000 resistance area found on H4 time frame
  • 37500 support area found on H4 timeframe

AUD/USD:

From the Weekly timeframe, we can see that the price has returned back to the ascending trendline support drawn from 9th March (2020), where we witnessed  a small bounce up North away from the support. On the Daily timeframe, price has closed above the ascending trendline and  may move up North to test the Daily resistance level of 0.78053. On H4,  price is approaching 0.78 major level, in line with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and Daily resistance level. If this level manages to be broken, we may see a further push upside towards the 61.8% fibonacci retracement and horizontal graphical overlap level. Which may signify the continuation of the bullish move.

Areas of consideration:

  • H4 within touching distance from profit target of 38.2% fibonacci retracement, 0.78 major figure and Daily resistance.
  • Bullish momentum may push prices up higher towards the H4 fibonacci retracement level of 61.8% at 0.78866.

USD/JPY

From the weekly timeframe, we can see that the price is facing bullish pressure from the ascending trendline support and horizontal swing low support, towards the horizontal swing high resistance level which coincides with 78.6% fibonacci retracement and 100% fibonacci extension. On the daily time frame, prices are bouncing off from horizontal pullback support which coincides with 50% retracement level towards the horizontal swing high resistance which coincides with 50% fibonacci extension and 78.6% fibonacci retracement. On the H4, prices might push higher towards horizontal swing high resistance which coincides with the 127.2% fibonacci extension. EMA is also below prices, showing bullish pressure for price.

Areas of consideration:

  • 454 support level on the daily time frame is a possible upside target
  • 454  support level on daily timeframe in line with the ascending trendline support  and 78.6% fibonacci retracement

USD/CAD:

Looking at the weekly chart, price has pushed away from the descending trendline, and is still showing bearish momentum. It is important to note that the long-term picture has pointed the direction down (trend) since March (2020). In the daily time frame, price closed under the trendline resistance as well as the 61.8% fibonacci retracement value at 1.27246. We may see a further push downside towards the Weekly support level of 1.2579. And on the H4 timeframe, price is within touching distance of our profit target at 1.2625 level. We may expect a further push down South as a continuation of this bearish momentum if price manages break pass the descending trendline resistance turned- support, towards 1.2579 level where the fibonacci confluence of 61.8% Fibonacci extension, 61.8% and -61.8% Fibonacci retracement are.

Areas of consideration:

  • H4 approaching profit target, may continue bearish move if 1.2625 level is broken and retested
  • Next target for bearish continuation would be 2579 level where the fibonacci confluence of 61.8% Fibonacci extension, 61.8% and -61.8% Fibonacci retracement are.

USD/CHF:

On the weekly chart, USD/CHF shows a strong break above our weekly resistance-turned-support at the 0.91000 level, where we expect a stronger pullback to the weekly trendline and the weekly 0.93000 resistance level, in line with our -27.2% Fibonacci retracement and 161.8% Fibonacci extension. The daily timeframe also shows that price broke above the 0.91000 level, daily trendline and the moving average resistances. In this scenario, it is possible to see a stronger pullback to test the 0.93000 weekly resistance level.

Looking at the H4 chart, we see that price is making a bullish move up as well. We note that the MACD is also holding above the 0 line, in line with our bullish bias on the shorter timeframe. We could potentially see price rising further to test the 0.91800 resistance level, which is in line with our 100% and 161.8% Fibonacci extension levels, as well as the 0.93000 weekly resistance level. Otherwise, should price hold below the 0.91800 level, we could see a pullback to test the 0.90800 support level, in line with our 100% Fibonacci extension level.

Areas of consideration:

  • Price broke above the weekly 0.91000 resistance level, and is rising further to test the 0.93000 weekly resistance level.
  • 91800 resistance level is a key level to watch on the H4 timeframe.

Dow Jones Industrial Average:

On the weekly chart, price edged higher, holding between 32643 resistance and 29568 support. Despite price holding above the long term moving average, there remains no strong levels for entry for now. On the Daily, price continues to hold very strongly above ascending trendline support. With price coming back to test the ascending support at 30662, it is possible that traders could see a bounce above this support and should be careful when deciding to trade any short term pullbacks as the bullish momentum still remains strong.

On the H4, price drifted back towards resistance at 32009. Despite technical indicators calling for further bullish upside, there remains no clear levels for entry on the intraday. Traders should continue to watch resistance at 32009 and support at 30695.

Areas of consideration:

  • Indicators remain bullish

XAU/USD (GOLD):

On the weekly timeframe, gold pushed lower breaking previous supports. Price has also broken below long term moving average. Price could very well ride the bearish momentum and drift lower towards 1670 support which is in line with key 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. On the daily chart, we see price drifting lower, and traders should look out for any pullbacks towards 1774 resistance where long term swing traders could add to their sells to push price lower towards 1670.

On the 4H timeframe price testing and holding above 1717 support which is also in line with Key 100% Fibonacci extension level. With stochastics on support where price bounced in the past, a short term intraday bounce towards 1774 weekly resistance could be likely before seeing any chance of a drop. However, should price fail to hold above 1717 support, traders can also expect price to drop towards next weekly support at 1670 level.

Areas of consideration:

  • 1717 intraday support to hold short term intraday bounce

The accuracy, completeness and timeliness of the information contained on this site cannot be guaranteed. IC Markets does not warranty, guarantee or make any representations, or assume any liability regarding financial results based on the use of the information in the site.

News, views, opinions, recommendations and other information obtained from sources outside of www.icmarkets.com.au, used in this site are believed to be reliable, but we cannot guarantee their accuracy or completeness. All such information is subject to change at any time without notice. IC Markets assumes no responsibility for the content of any linked site.

The fact that such links may exist does not indicate approval or endorsement of any material contained on any linked site. IC Markets is not liable for any harm caused by the transmission, through accessing the services or information on this site, of a computer virus, or other computer code or programming device that might be used to access, delete, damage, disable, disrupt or otherwise impede in any manner, the operation of the site or of any user’s software, hardware, data or property.

 

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