403075 July 26, 2024 15:14 ICMarkets Market News
Asia-Pacific markets rebounded on Friday after Thursday’s sell-off hit multi-month lows for several indexes. Traders assessed Tokyo’s July inflation data, a key indicator of national trends. Tokyo’s headline inflation dipped to 2.2% in July from 2.3% in May, with core inflation steady at 2.2%. The “core-core” inflation, excluding fresh food and energy, fell to 1.5% from 1.8%. The yen strengthened sharply against the dollar, now trading at 153.79.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 was nearly flat, while the Topix rose 0.25%. Renesas Electronics plunged over 6%, reaching its lowest price since April, following a 29% drop in net profit for the first half of the year. This resulted in a 760 billion yen ($4.9 billion) market cap loss on Thursday. Nissan fell 3.92% after dismal Q1 results, with a 99% drop in operating profit and a 72.9% fall in net profit. Honda, however, rose 0.91% on plans to close a factory in China and increase electric vehicle production.
Taiwan’s market returned post-typhoon, with the Taiwan Weighted Index plunging 3.33%. Heavyweights Hon Hai Precision and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing fell 4.71% and 5.52%, respectively. South Korea’s Kospi rose 0.62%, while Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 increased 0.76%. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index climbed 0.14%, and mainland China’s CSI 300 traded flat.
Singapore’s monetary authority maintained its policy, keeping exchange rate settings unchanged. In the U.S., tech stocks continued to slide, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite losing 0.51% and 0.93% respectively, while the Dow Jones rose 0.2%. Adam Sarhan of 50 Park Investments noted this is part of a typical “great mini rotation” in a bull market.
The post Friday 26th July 2024: Asia-Pacific Markets Recover After Sell-Off first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.
403074 July 26, 2024 14:39 ICMarkets Market News
IC Markets Europe Fundamental Forecast | 26 July 2024
What happened in the Asia session?
Tokyo’s core CPI has now accelerated for the third consecutive month as it jumped from 1.6% in April to 2.2% YoY in July. Inflationary pressures are building and it could pave the way for the Bank of Japan (BoJ) to move ahead with a rate hike at next week’s monetary policy announcement. The yen has gained nearly 4.3% over the past three weeks as USD/JPY fell under 152.50 yesterday. This currency pair has since retraced higher to hover around 153.90 but overhead pressures remain.
What does it mean for the Europe & US sessions?
After easing on a monthly and annualised basis in May, the PCE Price Index – which is the Federal Reserve’s preferred gauge of inflation – is expected to post a slightly stronger monthly gain in prices for the month of June. However, should PCE prices also moderate lower as per the latest CPI results two weeks ago, it will likely trigger a strong sell-off in the greenback later today.
The Dollar Index (DXY)
Key news events today
PCE Price Index (12:30 pm GMT)
What can we expect from DXY today?
After easing on a monthly and annualised basis in May, the PCE Price Index – which is the Federal Reserve’s preferred gauge of inflation – is expected to post a slightly stronger monthly gain in prices for the month of June. However, should PCE prices also moderate lower as per the latest CPI results two weeks ago, it will likely trigger a strong sell-off in the greenback later today.
Central Bank Notes:
Next 24 Hours Bias
Weak Bearish
Gold (XAU)
Key news events today
PCE Price Index (12:30 pm GMT)
What can we expect from Gold today?
After easing on a monthly and annualised basis in May, the PCE Price Index – which is the Federal Reserve’s preferred gauge of inflation – is expected to post a slightly stronger monthly gain in prices for the month of June. However, should PCE prices also moderate lower as per the latest CPI results two weeks ago, it will likely trigger a strong sell-off in the greenback later today – a move that should spur this precious metal.
Next 24 Hours Bias
Medium Bearish
The Australian Dollar (AUD)
Key news events today
No major news events.
What can we expect from AUD today?
The Aussie has shed 3.5% over the last couple of weeks as it dived from 0.6783 in mid-July to as low as 0.6514 overnight before retracing higher. This currency pair was trading around 0.6550 as Asian markets came online – these are the support and resistance levels for today.
Support: 0.6465
Resistance: 0.6580
Central Bank Notes:
Next 24 Hours Bias
Weak Bullish
The Kiwi Dollar (NZD)
Key news events today
No major news events.
What can we expect from NZD today?
Significant weakness in the Kiwi has caused it to decline nearly 4.3% over the past three weeks. This currency pair hit a low of 0.5882 overnight before stabilizing around this level. Overhead pressures remain and further downside can be expected for the Kiwi – these are the support and resistance levels for today.
Support: 0.5875
Resistance: 0.5950
Central Bank Notes:
Next 24 Hours Bias
Weak Bullish
The Japanese Yen (JPY)
Key news events today
Tokyo Core CPI (11:30 pm GMT 25th July)
What can we expect from JPY today?
Tokyo’s core CPI has now accelerated for the third consecutive month as it jumped from 1.6% in April to 2.2% YoY in July. Inflationary pressures are building and it could pave the way for the Bank of Japan (BoJ) to move ahead with a rate hike at next week’s monetary policy announcement. The yen has gained nearly 4.3% over the past three weeks as USD/JPY fell under 152.50 yesterday. This currency pair has since retraced higher to hover around 153.90 but overhead pressures remain.
Central Bank Notes:
Next 24 Hours Bias
Weak Bearish
The Euro (EUR)
Key news events today
No major news events.
What can we expect from EUR today?
The German ifo Business Climate deteriorated further in July as it fell from 88.9 in the previous month to 87.0 as the German economy remains in the doldrums. Business sentiment for all the major sectors such as services, trade and construction declined – with the manufacturing sector falling significantly more than the others. The Euro pulled back to a low of 1.0825 yesterday before ranging between this lower bound and 1.0865 overnight – these are the support and resistance levels for today.
Support: 1.0810
Resistance: 1.0895
Central Bank Notes:
Next 24 Hours Bias
Weak Bullish
The Swiss Franc (CHF)
Key news events today
No major news events.
What can we expect from CHF today?
Demand for the greenback waned overnight as USD/CHF briefly dipped under the threshold of 0.8800 before retracing higher by the end of the U.S. session. This currency pair was trading around 0.8810 at the beginning of the Asia session – these are the support and resistance levels for today.
Support: 0.8780
Resistance: 0.8880
Central Bank Notes:
Next 24 Hours Bias
Weak Bearish
The Pound (GBP)
Key news events today
No major news events.
What can we expect from GBP today?
Cable has drifted lower this week before finally dropping below the threshold of 1.2900 overnight. This currency pair was trading around 1.2860 as Asian markets came online and is expected to edge lower as the day progresses – these are the support and resistance levels for today.
Support: 1.2780
Resistance: 1.2940
Central Bank Notes:
Next 24 Hours Bias
Weak Bullish
The Canadian Dollar (CAD)
Key news events today
No major news events.
What can we expect from CAD today?
Recent weakness in the Loonie has propelled USD/CAD higher as it rose from 1.3600 to an overnight high of 1.3850. However, this currency pair retreated away from this level and was trading around 1.3810 at the beginning of the Asia session – these are the support and resistance levels for today.
Support: 1.3780
Resistance: 1.3850
Central Bank Notes:
Next 24 Hours Bias
Weak Bearish
Oil
Key news events today
No major news events.
What can we expect from Oil today?
Stronger-than-anticipated GDP output in the U.S. for the second quarter of this year triggered a massive demand for crude oil – the advance estimate showed the American economy rebounding strongly from 1.4% in Q1-24 to 2.8% YoY. WTI oil was hovering $77.50 per barrel before spiking as high as $79.70 – strong tailwinds remain in place and this commodity is likely to climb higher as the day progresses. However, crude prices look set to notch a third straight week of decline.
Next 24 Hours Bias
Weak Bullish
The post IC Markets Europe Fundamental Forecast | 26 July 2024 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.
403072 July 26, 2024 13:39 ICMarkets Market News
IC Markets Asia Fundamental Forecast | 26 July 2024
What happened in the U.S. session?
The advance estimate for second quarter GDP beat market forecasts of 2.0% with a reading of 2.8% as consumer spending grew due to a rebound in goods consumption along with an increase in wholesale trade and retail trade industries. In addition, non-residential investment accelerated while defence government spending also grew. After slowing quite significantly from 3.4% in Q4-23 to 1.4% in Q1-24, economic growth appears to have bounced back in the second quarter of this year.
Meanwhile, unemployment claims printed slightly lower than its estimate of 237K with a reading of 235K. However, this figure remains elevated and continues to trend in line with its 4-week average of 234.5K, suggesting a potential weakness in the labour market. The dollar index (DXY) was trading around 104.20 prior to the release of these economic data points but it experienced wild swings overnight – surging as high as 104.45 before reversing sharply to drop as low as 104.17. This index finally stabilized around 104.35 by the end of this session.
What does it mean for the Asia Session?
Tokyo’s core CPI has now accelerated for the third consecutive month as it jumped from 1.6% in April to 2.2% YoY in July. Inflationary pressures are building and it could pave the way for the Bank of Japan (BoJ) to move ahead with a rate hike at next week’s monetary policy announcement. The yen has gained nearly 4.3% over the past three weeks as USD/JPY fell under 152.50 yesterday. This currency pair has since retraced higher to hover around 153.90 but overhead pressures remain.
The Dollar Index (DXY)
Key news events today
PCE Price Index (12:30 pm GMT)
What can we expect from DXY today?
After easing on a monthly and annualised basis in May, the PCE Price Index – which is the Federal Reserve’s preferred gauge of inflation – is expected to post a slightly stronger monthly gain in prices for the month of June. However, should PCE prices also moderate lower as per the latest CPI results two weeks ago, it will likely trigger a strong sell-off in the greenback later today.
Central Bank Notes:
Next 24 Hours Bias
Weak Bearish
Gold (XAU)
Key news events today
PCE Price Index (12:30 pm GMT)
What can we expect from Gold today?
After easing on a monthly and annualised basis in May, the PCE Price Index – which is the Federal Reserve’s preferred gauge of inflation – is expected to post a slightly stronger monthly gain in prices for the month of June. However, should PCE prices also moderate lower as per the latest CPI results two weeks ago, it will likely trigger a strong sell-off in the greenback later today – a move that should spur this precious metal.
Next 24 Hours Bias
Medium Bearish
The Australian Dollar (AUD)
Key news events today
No major news events.
What can we expect from AUD today?
The Aussie has shed 3.5% over the last couple of weeks as it dived from 0.6783 in mid-July to as low as 0.6514 overnight before retracing higher. This currency pair was trading around 0.6550 as Asian markets came online – these are the support and resistance levels for today.
Support: 0.6465
Resistance: 0.6580
Central Bank Notes:
Next 24 Hours Bias
Weak Bullish
The Kiwi Dollar (NZD)
Key news events today
No major news events.
What can we expect from NZD today?
Significant weakness in the Kiwi has caused it to decline nearly 4.3% over the past three weeks. This currency pair hit a low of 0.5882 overnight before stabilizing around this level. Overhead pressures remain and further downside can be expected for the Kiwi – these are the support and resistance levels for today.
Support: 0.5875
Resistance: 0.5950
Central Bank Notes:
Next 24 Hours Bias
Weak Bullish
The Japanese Yen (JPY)
Key news events today
Tokyo Core CPI (11:30 pm GMT 25th July)
What can we expect from JPY today?
Tokyo’s core CPI has now accelerated for the third consecutive month as it jumped from 1.6% in April to 2.2% YoY in July. Inflationary pressures are building and it could pave the way for the Bank of Japan (BoJ) to move ahead with a rate hike at next week’s monetary policy announcement. The yen has gained nearly 4.3% over the past three weeks as USD/JPY fell under 152.50 yesterday. This currency pair has since retraced higher to hover around 153.90 but overhead pressures remain.
Central Bank Notes:
Next 24 Hours Bias
Weak Bearish
The Euro (EUR)
Key news events today
No major news events.
What can we expect from EUR today?
The German ifo Business Climate deteriorated further in July as it fell from 88.9 in the previous month to 87.0 as the German economy remains in the doldrums. Business sentiment for all the major sectors such as services, trade and construction declined – with the manufacturing sector falling significantly more than the others. The Euro pulled back to a low of 1.0825 yesterday before ranging between this lower bound and 1.0865 overnight – these are the support and resistance levels for today.
Support: 1.0810
Resistance: 1.0895
Central Bank Notes:
Next 24 Hours Bias
Weak Bullish
The Swiss Franc (CHF)
Key news events today
No major news events.
What can we expect from CHF today?
Demand for the greenback waned overnight as USD/CHF briefly dipped under the threshold of 0.8800 before retracing higher by the end of the U.S. session. This currency pair was trading around 0.8810 at the beginning of the Asia session – these are the support and resistance levels for today.
Support: 0.8780
Resistance: 0.8880
Central Bank Notes:
Next 24 Hours Bias
Weak Bearish
The Pound (GBP)
Key news events today
No major news events.
What can we expect from GBP today?
Cable has drifted lower this week before finally dropping below the threshold of 1.2900 overnight. This currency pair was trading around 1.2860 as Asian markets came online and is expected to edge lower as the day progresses – these are the support and resistance levels for today.
Support: 1.2780
Resistance: 1.2940
Central Bank Notes:
Next 24 Hours Bias
Weak Bullish
The Canadian Dollar (CAD)
Key news events today
No major news events.
What can we expect from CAD today?
Recent weakness in the Loonie has propelled USD/CAD higher as it rose from 1.3600 to an overnight high of 1.3850. However, this currency pair retreated away from this level and was trading around 1.3810 at the beginning of the Asia session – these are the support and resistance levels for today.
Support: 1.3780
Resistance: 1.3850
Central Bank Notes:
Next 24 Hours Bias
Weak Bearish
Oil
Key news events today
No major news events.
What can we expect from Oil today?
Stronger-than-anticipated GDP output in the U.S. for the second quarter of this year triggered a massive demand for crude oil – the advance estimate showed the American economy rebounding strongly from 1.4% in Q1-24 to 2.8% YoY. WTI oil was hovering $77.50 per barrel before spiking as high as $79.70 – strong tailwinds remain in place and this commodity is likely to climb higher as the day progresses. However, crude prices look set to notch a third straight week of decline.
Next 24 Hours Bias
Weak Bullish
The post IC Markets Asia Fundamental Forecast | 26 July 2024 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.
403070 July 26, 2024 13:14 ICMarkets Market News
1
|
Ex-Dividends | ||
---|---|---|---|
2
|
26/7/2024 | ||
3
|
Indices | Name |
Index Adjustment Points
|
4
|
Australia 200 CFD
|
AUS200 | |
5
|
IBEX-35 Index | ES35 | |
6
|
France 40 CFD | F40 | |
7
|
Hong Kong 50 CFD
|
HK50 | |
8
|
Italy 40 CFD | IT40 | |
9
|
Japan 225 CFD
|
JP225 | |
10
|
EU Stocks 50 CFD
|
STOXX50 | |
11
|
UK 100 CFD | UK100 | |
12
|
US SP 500 CFD
|
US500 | 0.38 |
13
|
Wall Street CFD
|
US30 | |
14
|
US Tech 100 CFD
|
USTEC | 0.97 |
15
|
FTSE CHINA 50
|
CHINA50 | 13.37 |
16
|
Canada 60 CFD
|
CA60 | |
17
|
Germany Tech 40 CFD
|
TecDE30 | |
18
|
Germany Mid 50 CFD
|
MidDE50 | |
19
|
Netherlands 25 CFD
|
NETH25 | 0.24 |
20
|
Switzerland 20 CFD
|
SWI20 | |
21
|
Hong Kong China H-shares CFD
|
CHINAH | |
22
|
Norway 25 CFD
|
NOR25 | |
23
|
South Africa 40 CFD
|
SA40 | |
24
|
Sweden 30 CFD
|
SE30 | |
25
|
US 2000 CFD | US2000 | 0.04 |
The post Ex-Dividend 26/07/2024 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.
403069 July 26, 2024 13:14 ICMarkets Market News
Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish
Price could potentially make a bearish continuation towards 1st support.
Pivot: 104.47
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance level, specifically at the 38.20% Fibonacci Retracement, indicating a potential area where sellers could enter the market after a retracement.
1st support: 103.70
Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi-swing low support level, suggesting a significant area where previous declines have found support.
1st resistance: 105.16
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance level, indicating a potential area where sellers could enter the market after a retracement.
Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish
Factors contributing to the momentum: Price is below the bearish Ichimoku cloud.
Price could potentially make a bearish continuation towards 1st support.
Pivot: 1.0876
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance level, specifically at the 38.20% Fibonacci Retracement, indicating a potential area where sellers could enter the market after a retracement.
1st support: 1.0816
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support level, specifically at the 50% Fibonacci Retracement, suggesting a significant area where previous declines have found support.
1st resistance: 1.0921
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance level, specifically at the 78.60% Fibonacci Retracement, indicating a historical point where previous rallies have faced selling pressure or reversed.
Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish
Factors contributing to the momentum: Price is below the bearish Ichimoku cloud.
Price could potentially make a bearish continuation towards 1st support.
Pivot: 167.35
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance level, specifically at the 23.60% Fibonacci Retracement, indicating a potential area where sellers could enter the market after a retracement.
1st support: 163.99
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing low support level, suggesting a significant area where previous declines have found support.
1st resistance: 169.96
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance level, specifically at the 50% Fibonacci Retracement, indicating a historical point where previous rallies have faced selling pressure or reversed.
Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish
Price could potentially make a bullish bounce off pivot and head towards 1st resistance.
Pivot: 0.8435
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support level, indicating a potential area where buyers could enter the market after a retracement.
1st support: 0.8499
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support level, suggesting a significant area where previous declines have found support.
1st resistance: 0.8476
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance level, specifically at the 78.60% Fibonacci Retracement, indicating a historical point where previous rallies have faced selling pressure or reversed.
Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish
Price could potentially make a bullish bounce off pivot and head towards 1st resistance.
Pivot: 1.2854
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support level, specifically at the 61.80% Fibonacci Projection, indicating a potential area where buyers could enter the market after a retracement.
1st support: 1.2778
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support level, specifically at the 61.80% Fibonacci Retracement, suggesting a significant area where previous declines have found support.
1st resistance: 1.2934
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance level, indicating a historical point where previous rallies have faced selling pressure or reversed.
Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish
Factors contributing to the momentum: Price is below the bearish Ichimoku cloud.
Price could potentially make a bearish reaction off pivot and drop to 1st support.
Pivot: 200.66
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance level, specifically at the 38.20% Fibonacci Retracement, indicating a potential area where sellers could enter the market after a retracement.
1st support: 196.61
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support level, suggesting a significant area where previous declines have found support.
1st resistance: 202.52
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance level, specifically at the 50% Fibonacci Retracement, indicating a historical point where previous rallies have faced selling pressure or reversed.
Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish
Price could potentially make a bearish reaction off pivot and drop to 1st support.
Pivot: 0.8836
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance level, indicating a potential area where sellers could enter the market after a retracement.
1st support: 0.8755
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support level, suggesting a significant area where previous declines have found support.
1st resistance: 0.8917
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance level, indicating a historical point where previous rallies have faced selling pressure or reversed.
Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish
Factors contributing to the momentum: Price is below the bearish Ichimoku cloud.
Price could potentially make a bearish reaction off pivot and drop to 1st support.
Pivot: 154.74
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance level, indicating a potential area where sellers could enter the market after a retracement.
1st support: 151.92
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support level, suggesting a significant area where previous declines have found support.
1st resistance: 155.80
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance level, indicating a historical point where previous rallies have faced selling pressure or reversed.
Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish
Price has made a bearish reversal off the pivot and could potentially make a pull back towards the 1st support.
Pivot: 1.3832
Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi-swing-high resistance, indicating a significant area where selling pressures could intensify.
1st support: 1.3779
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support that aligns close to a 23.6% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where price could find support.
1st resistance: 1.3888
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.
Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish
Price is rising towards the pivot and could potentially make a bearish reversal off this level to fall towards the 1st support.
Pivot: 0.6562
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify. The presence of a bearish Ichimoku cloud adds further significance to the downside momentum.
1st support: 0.6529
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns with a 161.8% Fibonacci extension level, suggesting a potential area where price could find strong support.
1st resistance: 0.6585
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns close to a 23.6% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a significant area that could halt further upward movement.
Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish
Price is trading close to the pivot and could potentially make a bullish bounce off this level to rise towards the 1st resistance.
Pivot: 0.5883
Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi-swing-low support, indicating a potential zone where buying interests could pick up to stage a minor rebound.
1st support: 0.5779
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns with a 127.2% Fibonacci extension, suggesting a significant area that could halt further downward momentum.
1st resistance: 0.5948
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, indicating a significant area that could halt further upward movement. The presence of a bearish Ichimoku cloud adds further significance to the overhead pressures.
Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall Momentum of the Chart: Bearish
Price could fall towards the pivot and potentially make a bullish bounce off this level to rise towards the 1st resistance.
Pivot: 39,607.55
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support that aligns with a 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level, indicating a potential area where buying interests could pick up to stage a minor rebound.
1st Support: 38,980.78
Supporting Reasons: Identified as a pullback support, suggesting a significant area where price could find strong support.
1st Resistance: 40,4677.11
Supporting Reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns close to a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level, indicating a significant area that could halt further upward movement.
Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall Momentum of the Chart: Neutral
Price is rising towards the pivot and could potentially make a bearish reversal off this level to fall towards the 1st support.
Pivot: 18,353.80
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns close to a 50% Fibonacci retracement level, indicating an area where selling pressures could intensify to resume the downtrend. The presence of a bearish Ichimoku cloud adds further significance to the overhead pressures.
1st Support: 18,149.30
Supporting Reasons: Identified as a multi-swing-low support, indicating a significant area where price could find strong support.
1st Resistance: 18,505.94
Supporting Reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance that aligns close to a 78.6% Fibonacci projection level, indicating a significant area that could halt further upward movement.
Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish
Price has made a bullish bounce off the pivot and could potentially rise towards the 1st resistance.
Pivot: 5,408.81
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a potential area where buying interests could pick up to stage a minor rebound.
1st support: 5,339.76
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential area where price could find strong support.
1st resistance: 5,503.91
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance that aligns with a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level, suggesting a critical area that could halt further upward movement. The presence of a bearish Ichimoku cloud adds further significance to the overhead pressures.
Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Neutral
Price is rising towards the pivot and could potentially make a bearish reversal off this level to pull back towards the 1st support.
Pivot: 68,388.29
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify.
1st support: 63,507.86
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns close to a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level, indicating a significant area that could halt further downward movement.
1st resistance: 70,168.65
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns with a 161.8% Fibonacci extension level, indicating a potential barrier that could halt further upward movement.
Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish
Price is rising towards the pivot and could potentially make a bearish reversal off this level to fall towards the 1st support.
Pivot: 3,276.36
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns with a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify.
1st Support: 3,052.53
Supporting Reasons: Identified as an overlap support that aligns close to a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level, indicating a significant area that could halt further downward movement.
1st Resistance: 3,377.15
Supporting Reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns with a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level, indicating a historical barrier where selling pressures could intensify.
Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall Momentum of the Chart: Neutral
Price is rising towards the pivot and could potentially make a bearish reversal off this level to fall towards the 1st support.
Pivot: 80.95
Supporting Reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance that aligns close to a 50% Fibonacci retracement level, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify. The presence of a bearish Ichimoku cloud adds further significance to the overhead pressures.
1st Support: 77.53
Supporting Reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns with a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level, indicating a significant area where price could find strong support.
1st Resistance: 83.78
Supporting Reasons: Identified as a multi-swing-high resistance, indicating a potential barrier that could halt further upward movement.
Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish
Price could potentially make a bearish reaction off pivot and drop to 1st support.
Pivot: 2391.29
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance level, indicating a potential area where sellers could enter the market after a retracement.
1st support: 2361.72
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support level, specifically at the 161.80% Fibonacci Extension and 78.60% Fibonacci Retracement, indicating Fibonacci confluence and suggesting a significant area where previous declines have found support.
1st resistance: 2423.81
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance level, indicating a historical point where previous rallies have faced selling pressure or reversed.
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The fact that such links may exist does not indicate approval or endorsement of any material contained on any linked site. IC Markets is not liable for any harm caused by the transmission, through accessing the services or information on this site, of a computer virus, or other computer code or programming device that might be used to access, delete, damage, disable, disrupt or otherwise impede in any manner, the operation of the site or of any user’s software, hardware, data or property.
The post Friday 26th July 2024: Technical Outlook and Review first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.
403046 July 26, 2024 09:39 ICMarkets Market News
Volatility Rises Again in Markets – Nasdaq Down 0.9%
It was another volatile day in financial markets yesterday as risk sentiment continued to take a hit before a higher US GDP print came through with a bit of stability. US tech stocks were again hit with both the Nasdaq and S&P losing ground on the day, down 0.93% and 0.51% respectively, whilst the Dow pushed 0.22% higher. US treasury yields again saw a disparity between the long and short dated bonds, but widening the gap again this time, the 2-year gaining 2.5 basis points up to 4.441% and the 10-year dropping 2.8 basis points to 4.258%. Oil prices pushed higher again, Brent adding 0.81% to trade up to $82.37 a barrel and WTI gaining 0.89% to move back to $78.28 a barrel. Gold again saw big profit taking flows and lost 1.8% on the day to close at $2,355.
Aussie in Free Fall as Risk Sentiment is Hit
All the talk this week in the FX world has been about the Yen, but those trading the Aussie dollar have had a rough time of it as well. The Aussie has dropped over 4% against the big dollar since it hit multi-month highs on July 11, and it has taken an even bigger hit against the Yen losing over 9% from the same data. There has been little in the way of respite on the way down and any brief rallies have been hit hard with the usual exporter flow doing little to stem the tide. The move has coincided with a drop across commodities and until we see a change in commodity’s outlook or indeed the global risk story, the traders are anticipating more downside the currency. Support now comes in on the overnight low around 0.6510 with longer term support all the way down at 0.6420 and resistance now sits with the 200-day moving average at 0.6660.
Another Busy Day is Set to Close the Trading Week
It was another rollercoaster trading day yesterday with volatility hitting all markets and it doesn’t look like stopping in the last three sessions of the week. Inflation data is set to dominate market focus today with key updates due out of Tokyo and the US. We are due to have the latest Tokyo CPI numbers out early in the Asian session but the real focus for the day will come once New York opens and we have the latest update on the Fed’s favoured inflation metric, the Core PCE Price Index. Expectation is for a 0.2% increase and anything significantly off this print will see more moves in the market. The revised University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment and Inflation Expectations are also due out and traders will keep a wary eye on any updates from the latest G20 meeting that kicks off in Rio de Janeiro.
The post General Market Analysis 26/07/2024 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.
403003 July 25, 2024 14:39 ICMarkets Market News
Japan’s Nikkei 225 extended its losing streak to seven days, plunging 3% and leading losses among Asian markets after Wall Street’s tumble. SoftBank Group plummeted 9%, while Renesas Electronics dropped over 14%. The broader Topix fell 2.24%. The yen strengthened for the fourth consecutive day against the U.S. dollar, reaching an 11-week high of 152.28. Reuters reported that the Bank of Japan might discuss a rate hike and a plan to reduce bond-buying at its upcoming meeting.
South Korea’s Kospi fell 1.8% and the Kosdaq dropped 2.32%, dragged down by SK Hynix, which fell 6%. This followed SK Hynix reporting record quarterly revenue of 16.42 trillion won ($11.85 billion), up 125% from a year ago. Operating profit hit 5.47 trillion won, the highest in six years, and net profit stood at 4.12 billion won, reversing losses from last year. Meanwhile, South Korea’s advance second-quarter GDP grew 2.3% year-on-year, slightly below expectations, and contracted 0.2% quarter-on-quarter.
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index slipped 1.7%, while mainland China’s CSI 300 fell 0.98%. China’s central bank cut the medium-term lending rate to 2.3% from 2.5% to stimulate the economy, following Monday’s loan prime rate reduction. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 was down 0.94%. Taiwan’s market remained closed for the second day as the island braced for Typhoon Gaemi.
In the U.S., the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite had their worst days since 2022, with the S&P 500 dropping 2.31% to 5,427.13 and the Nasdaq falling 3.64% to 17,342.41. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 504.22 points, or 1.25%, to 39,853.87. Tech stocks, including Nvidia and Meta Platforms, lost 6.8% and 5.6%, respectively. Alphabet shares fell 5%, marking their biggest one-day drop since January, while Tesla shares declined 12.3% on weaker-than-expected results and a 7% year-over-year drop in auto revenue.
The post Thursday 25th July 2024: Asian Markets Plunge Amid Global Sell-Off, Led by Nikkei’s 3% Drop first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.
403002 July 25, 2024 14:39 ICMarkets Market News
IC Markets Europe Fundamental Forecast | 25 July 2024
What happened in the Asia session?
It was an uneventful morning as the dollar index (DXY) hovered around 104.20 while spot prices for gold remained capped under $2,380/oz but trading activity is likely to pick up at the onset of the European trading hours. Traders should watch out for the release of the German ifo Business Climate as well as macroeconomic data points from the U.S. later on.
What does it mean for the Europe & US sessions?
The German ifo Business Climate deteriorated in June, led by the manufacturing and trade sectors as pessimistic expectations increased. July’s estimate of 88.9 points to a relatively unchanged business sentiment which could add some downward pressure on the Euro before the start of the European trading hours.
Meanwhile, unemployment claims remain elevated with the 4-week average now standing at 234K. Last week’s reading came in at 243K while the latest estimate of 237K points to another elevated reading. Should claims come in higher than expected once more, it could cause the dollar to come under pressure as this labour metric shows some signs of softness in the U.S. labour market.
The Dollar Index (DXY)
Key news events today
GDP (12:30 pm GMT)
Employment Claims (12:30 pm GMT)
What can we expect from DXY today?
The advance estimate for second quarter GDP is now expected to show economic activity growing 2.0%, higher than the previous estimate of 1.4%. GDP estimates for the second quarter have been mixed thus far but as more data becomes available, growth appears to be converging around 2% for this period. Meanwhile, unemployment claims remain elevated with the 4-week average now standing at 234K. Last week’s reading came in at 243K while the latest estimate of 237K points to another elevated reading. Should claims come in higher than expected once more, it could cause the dollar to come under pressure as this labour metric shows some signs of softness in the U.S. labour market.
Central Bank Notes:
Next 24 Hours Bias
Weak Bearish
Gold (XAU)
Key news events today
GDP (12:30 pm GMT)
Employment Claims (12:30 pm GMT)
What can we expect from Gold today?
The advance estimate for second quarter GDP is now expected to show economic activity growing 2.0%, higher than the previous estimate of 1.4%. GDP estimates for the second quarter have been mixed thus far but as more data becomes available, growth appears to be converging around 2% for this period. Meanwhile, unemployment claims remain elevated with the 4-week average now standing at 234K. Last week’s reading came in at 243K while the latest estimate of 237K points to another elevated reading. Should claims come in higher than expected once more, it could cause the dollar to come under pressure as this labour metric shows some signs of softness in the U.S. labour market.
Next 24 Hours Bias
Medium Bearish
The Australian Dollar (AUD)
Key news events today
No major news events.
What can we expect from AUD today?
The Aussie remained in freefall as it tumbled under the threshold of 0.6600. This currency pair continued to slide lower towards 0.6550 as Asian markets came online – these are the support and resistance levels for today.
Support: 0.6530
Resistance: 0.6600
Central Bank Notes:
Next 24 Hours Bias
Strong Bearish
The Kiwi Dollar (NZD)
Key news events today
No major news events.
What can we expect from NZD today?
Stronger demand for the dollar drove the Kiwi under 0.5950 overnight. This currency pair continued to slide lower towards 0.5900 at the beginning of the Asia session – these are the support and resistance levels for today.
Support: 0.5880
Resistance: 0.5950
Central Bank Notes:
Next 24 Hours Bias
Medium Bearish
The Japanese Yen (JPY)
Key news events today
No major news events.
What can we expect from JPY today?
The yen continues to strengthen steadily with USD/JPY now falling under the 153-level. This currency pair continued to slide lower towards 152.50 as Asian markets came online – these are the support and resistance levels for today.
Support: 152.00
Resistance: 154.00
Central Bank Notes:
Next 24 Hours Bias
Medium Bearish
The Euro (EUR)
Key news events today
German ifo Business Climate (8:00 am GMT)
What can we expect from EUR today?
The German ifo Business Climate deteriorated in June, led by the manufacturing and trade sectors as pessimistic expectations increased. July’s estimate of 88.9 points to a relatively unchanged business sentiment which could add some downward pressure on the Euro before the start of the European trading hours.
Central Bank Notes:
Next 24 Hours Bias
Weak Bullish
The Swiss Franc (CHF)
Key news events today
No major news events.
What can we expect from CHF today?
Demand for the greenback waned overnight as USD/CHF fell under 0.8850. This currency pair was trading around 0.8830 at the beginning of the Asia session – these are the support and resistance levels for today.
Support: 0.8820
Resistance: 0.8880
Central Bank Notes:
Next 24 Hours Bias
Weak Bearish
The Pound (GBP)
Key news events today
No major news events.
What can we expect from GBP today?
Cable hit an overnight high of 1.2937 before retreating away from this level. This currency pair was trading around 1.2890 as Asian markets came online and is expected to edge lower as the day progresses – these are the support and resistance levels for today.
Support: 1.2855
Resistance: 1.2940
Central Bank Notes:
Next 24 Hours Bias
Medium Bearish
The Canadian Dollar (CAD)
Key news events today
No major news events.
What can we expect from CAD today?
As widely expected, the Bank of Canada (BoC) cut its overnight rate for the second consecutive meeting by 25 basis points (bps) to bring it down to 4.50% while continuing to normalize its balance sheet. The Governing Council noted that excess supply in the Canadian economy has aided in cooling inflation in recent months, thus warranting looser monetary policy as the Canadian labour market has shown signs of moderation. In addition, the council also anticipates CPI inflation to decrease in the second half of the year due to base effects for gasoline prices, before steadying at the 2% level in 2025.
During the press conference, BoC Governor Tiff Macklem stated that policymakers are not on a predetermined rate path and will make decisions on a meeting-by-meeting basis based on incoming data. He also added that there was a clear consensus to cut by 25 bps at this recent meeting and that balance sheet normalization has still ways to go. The Loonie has lost nearly 1.4% over the last couple of weeks as USD/CAD gained almost 200 pips thus far.
Central Bank Notes:
Next 24 Hours Bias
Strong Bullish
Oil
Key news events today
No major news events.
What can we expect from Oil today?
The EIA crude oil inventories experienced a much higher-than-anticipated drawdown for the fourth week in a row as 3.74M barrels of crude were removed from storage to highlight the improved U.S. demand for oil. However, prices remain under pressure due to concerns over weak demand from China and potential ceasefire talks in the Middle East. WTI oil tumbled under $78.50 per barrel overnight and looks set to drift lower as the day progresses.
Next 24 Hours Bias
Medium Bearish
The post IC Markets Europe Fundamental Forecast | 25 July 2024 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.
402989 July 25, 2024 12:39 ICMarkets Market News
Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish
Price could potentially make a bearish reaction off pivot and drop to 1st support.
Pivot: 104.47
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance level, specifically at the 38.20% Fibonacci Retracement, indicating a potential area where sellers could enter the market after a retracement.
1st support: 103.70
Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi-swing low support level, suggesting a significant area where previous declines have found support.
1st resistance: 105.16
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance level, indicating a potential area where sellers could enter the market after a retracement.
Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish
Factors contributing to the momentum: Price is below the bearish Ichimoku cloud
Price could potentially make a bearish continuation towards 1st support.
Pivot: 1.0856
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance level, indicating a potential area where sellers could enter the market after a retracement.
1st support: 1.0768
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support level, specifically at the 61.80% Fibonacci Retracement, suggesting a significant area where previous declines have found support.
1st resistance: 1.0913
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance level, indicating a historical point where previous rallies have faced selling pressure or reversed.
Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish
Factors contributing to the momentum: Price is below the bearish Ichimoku cloud
Price could potentially make a bearish continuation towards 1st support.
Pivot: 167.35
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance level, indicating a potential area where sellers could enter the market after a retracement.
1st support: 163.99
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing low support level, suggesting a significant area where previous declines have found support.
1st resistance: 169.96
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance level, indicating a historical point where previous rallies have faced selling pressure or reversed.
Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish
Price could potentially make a bearish reaction off pivot and drop to 1st support.
Pivot: 0.8435
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance level, specifically at the 50% Fibonacci Retracement, indicating a potential area where sellers could enter the market after a retracement.
1st support: 0.8387
Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi-swing low support level, suggesting a significant area where previous declines have found support.
1st resistance: 0.8476
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance level, specifically at the 78.60% Fibonacci Retracement, indicating a historical point where previous rallies have faced selling pressure or reversed.
Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish
Price could potentially make a bullish bounce off pivot and head towards 1st resistance.
Pivot: 1.2854
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support level, specifically at the 61.80% Fibonacci Projection, indicating a potential area where buyers could enter the market after a retracement.
1st support: 1.2778
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support level, specifically at the 61.80% Fibonacci Retracement, suggesting a significant area where previous declines have found support.
1st resistance: 1.2934
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance level, indicating a historical point where previous rallies have faced selling pressure or reversed.
Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish
Price could potentially make a bullish bounce off pivot and head towards 1st resistance.
Pivot: 197.16
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support level, indicating a potential area where buyers could enter the market after a retracement.
1st support: 193.40
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support level, suggesting a significant area where previous declines have found support.
1st resistance: 201.29
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance level, indicating a historical point where previous rallies have faced selling pressure or reversed.
Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish
Price could potentially make a bullish bounce off pivot and head towards 1st resistance.
Pivot: 0.8837
Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi-swing high resistance level, indicating a potential area where buyers could enter the market after a retracement.
1st support: 0.8779
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support level, suggesting a significant area where previous declines have found support.
1st resistance: 0.8899
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance level, specifically at the 78.60% Fibonacci Retracement, indicating a historical point where previous rallies have faced selling pressure or reversed.
Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish
Price could potentially make a bearish reaction off pivot and drop to 1st support.
Pivot: 153.63
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance level, indicating a potential area where sellers could enter the market after a retracement.
1st support: 151.92
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing low support level, suggesting a significant area where previous declines have found support.
1st resistance: 155.31
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance level, indicating a historical point where previous rallies have faced selling pressure or reversed.
Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish
Price is rising towards the pivot and could potentially make a bearish reversal off this level to pull back towards the 1st support.
Pivot: 1.3832
Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi-swing-high resistance, indicating a significant area where selling pressures could intensify.
1st support: 1.3779
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential area where price could find support.
1st resistance: 1.3888
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.
Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish
Price has made a bearish break through the pivot and could potentially fall towards the 1st support.
Pivot: 0.6562
Supporting reasons: Previously identified as a swing-low support which now has been broken due to the strong bearish momentum. The presence of a bearish Ichimoku cloud adds further significance to the downside momentum.
1st support: 0.6529
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns with a 161.8% Fibonacci extension level, suggesting a potential area where price could find strong support.
1st resistance: 0.6585
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, indicating a significant area that could halt further upward movement.
Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish
Price is falling towards the pivot and could potentially make a bullish bounce off this level to rise towards the 1st resistance.
Pivot: 0.5883
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-low support, indicating a potential zone where buying interests could pick up to stage a minor rebound.
1st support: 0.5779
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, suggesting a significant area that could halt further downward momentum.
1st resistance: 0.5948
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, indicating a significant area that could halt further upward movement. The presence of a bearish Ichimoku clouds adds further significance to the overhead pressures.
Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall Momentum of the Chart: Bearish
Price is falling towards the pivot and could potentially make a bullish bounce off this level to rise towards the 1st resistance.
Pivot: 39,607.55
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support that aligns with a 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level, indicating a potential area where buying interests could pick up to stage a minor rebound.
1st Support: 38,980.78
Supporting Reasons: Identified as a pullback support, suggesting a significant area where price could find strong support.
1st Resistance: 40,4677.11
Supporting Reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns close to a 50% Fibonacci retracement level, indicating a significant area that could halt further upward movement.
Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall Momentum of the Chart: Bearish
Price could fall towards the pivot and potentially make a bearish break below this level to fall towards the 1st support.
Pivot: 18,323.60
Supporting reasons: Identified as a potential breakout level, indicating an area where the strong bearish momentum could drive the price lower from here.
1st Support: 18,168.28
Supporting Reasons: Identified as a swing-low support, indicating a significant area where price could find strong support.
1st Resistance: 18,505.94
Supporting Reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, indicating a significant area that could halt further upward movement.
Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish
Price could fall towards the pivot and potentially make a bullish bounce off this level to rise towards the 1st resistance.
Pivot: 5,408.81
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns with a confluence of Fibonacci levels i.e. the 50% retracement and the 100% projection levels, indicating a potential area where buying interests could pick up to stage a minor rebound.
1st support: 5,339.76
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential area where price could find strong support.
1st resistance: 5,503.91
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance that aligns close to a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level, suggesting a critical area that could halt further upward movement.
Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall momentum of the chart: Neutral
Price is falling towards the pivot and could potentially bounce off this level to rise towards the 1st resistance.
Pivot: 63,507.86
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns close to a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level, indicating a potential area where buying interests could pick up to stage a rebound.
1st support: 59,546.99
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support that aligns close to a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level, indicating a significant area that could halt further downward movement.
1st resistance: 66,374.96
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, indicating a potential barrier that could halt further upward movement.
Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish
Price has made a bearish break through the pivot and could potentially fall towards the 1st support.
Pivot: 3,276.36
Supporting reasons: Previously identified as a pullback support which now has been broken due to the strong bearish momentum.
1st Support: 3,052.53
Supporting Reasons: Identified as an overlap support that aligns close to a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level, indicating a significant area that could halt further downward movement.
1st Resistance: 3,377.15
Supporting Reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, indicating a historical barrier where selling pressures could intensify.
Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall Momentum of the Chart: Bearish
Price is falling towards the pivot and could potentially make a bullish bounce off this level to rise towards the 1st resistance.
Pivot: 77.53
Supporting Reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns close to a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level, indicating a potential area where buying interests could pick up to stage a minor rebound.
1st Support: 75.45
Supporting Reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns with a 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level, indicating a significant area where price could find strong support.
1st Resistance: 79.24
Supporting Reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance that aligns with a 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level, indicating a potential barrier that could halt further upward movement. The presence of a bearish Ichimoku cloud adds further significance to the bearish momentum.
Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish
Price could potentially make a bearish reaction off pivot and drop to 1st support.
Pivot: 2391.29
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance level, indicating a potential area where sellers could enter the market after a retracement.
1st support: 2361.72
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support level, specifically at the 161.80% Fibonacci Extension and 78.60% Fibonacci Retracement, indicating Fibonacci confluence and suggesting a significant area where previous declines have found support.
1st resistance: 2423.81
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance level, indicating a historical point where previous rallies have faced selling pressure or reversed.
The accuracy, completeness and timeliness of the information contained on this site cannot be guaranteed. IC Markets does not warranty, guarantee or make any representations, or assume any liability regarding financial results based on the use of the information in the site.
News, views, opinions, recommendations and other information obtained from sources outside of www.icmarkets.com, used in this site are believed to be reliable, but we cannot guarantee their accuracy or completeness. All such information is subject to change at any time without notice. IC Markets assumes no responsibility for the content of any linked site.
The fact that such links may exist does not indicate approval or endorsement of any material contained on any linked site. IC Markets is not liable for any harm caused by the transmission, through accessing the services or information on this site, of a computer virus, or other computer code or programming device that might be used to access, delete, damage, disable, disrupt or otherwise impede in any manner, the operation of the site or of any user’s software, hardware, data or property.
The post Thursday 25th July 2024: Technical Outlook and Review first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.
402988 July 25, 2024 12:14 ICMarkets Market News
IC Markets Asia Fundamental Forecast | 25 July 2024
What happened in the U.S. session?
As widely expected, the Bank of Canada (BoC) cut its overnight rate for the second consecutive meeting by 25 basis points (bps) to bring it down to 4.50% while continuing to normalize its balance sheet. The Governing Council noted that excess supply in the Canadian economy has aided in cooling inflation in recent months, thus warranting looser monetary policy as the Canadian labour market has shown signs of moderation. In addition, the council also anticipates CPI inflation to decrease in the second half of the year due to base effects for gasoline prices, before steadying at the 2% level in 2025.
During the press conference, BoC Governor Tiff Macklem stated that policymakers are not on a predetermined rate path and will make decisions on a meeting-by-meeting basis based on incoming data. He also added that there was a clear consensus to cut by 25 bps at this recent meeting and that balance sheet normalization has still ways to go. The Loonie has lost nearly 1.4% over the last couple of weeks as USD/CAD gained almost 200 pips thus far.
What does it mean for the Asia Session?
As Asian traders digest the latest moves by the BoC, the Loonie remains under intense selling pressures causing USD/CAD to surge past the 1.3800-level – this currency pair was trading around 1.3820 this morning.
The Dollar Index (DXY)
Key news events today
GDP (12:30 pm GMT)
Employment Claims (12:30 pm GMT)
What can we expect from DXY today?
The advance estimate for second quarter GDP is now expected to show economic activity growing 2.0%, higher than the previous estimate of 1.4%. GDP estimates for the second quarter have been mixed thus far but as more data becomes available, growth appears to be converging around 2% for this period. Meanwhile, unemployment claims remain elevated with the 4-week average now standing at 234K. Last week’s reading came in at 243K while the latest estimate of 237K points to another elevated reading. Should claims come in higher than expected once more, it could cause the dollar to come under pressure as this labour metric shows some signs of softness in the U.S. labour market.
Central Bank Notes:
Next 24 Hours Bias
Weak Bearish
Gold (XAU)
Key news events today
GDP (12:30 pm GMT)
Employment Claims (12:30 pm GMT)
What can we expect from Gold today?
The advance estimate for second quarter GDP is now expected to show economic activity growing 2.0%, higher than the previous estimate of 1.4%. GDP estimates for the second quarter have been mixed thus far but as more data becomes available, growth appears to be converging around 2% for this period. Meanwhile, unemployment claims remain elevated with the 4-week average now standing at 234K. Last week’s reading came in at 243K while the latest estimate of 237K points to another elevated reading. Should claims come in higher than expected once more, it could cause the dollar to come under pressure as this labour metric shows some signs of softness in the U.S. labour market.
Next 24 Hours Bias
Medium Bearish
The Australian Dollar (AUD)
Key news events today
No major news events.
What can we expect from AUD today?
The Aussie remained in freefall as it tumbled under the threshold of 0.6600. This currency pair continued to slide lower towards 0.6550 as Asian markets came online – these are the support and resistance levels for today.
Support: 0.6530
Resistance: 0.6600
Central Bank Notes:
Next 24 Hours Bias
Strong Bearish
The Kiwi Dollar (NZD)
Key news events today
No major news events.
What can we expect from NZD today?
Stronger demand for the dollar drove the Kiwi under 0.5950 overnight. This currency pair continued to slide lower towards 0.5900 at the beginning of the Asia session – these are the support and resistance levels for today.
Support: 0.5880
Resistance: 0.5950
Central Bank Notes:
Next 24 Hours Bias
Medium Bearish
The Japanese Yen (JPY)
Key news events today
No major news events.
What can we expect from JPY today?
The yen continues to strengthen steadily with USD/JPY now falling under the 153-level. This currency pair continued to slide lower towards 152.50 as Asian markets came online – these are the support and resistance levels for today.
Support: 152.00
Resistance: 154.00
Central Bank Notes:
Next 24 Hours Bias
Medium Bearish
The Euro (EUR)
Key news events today
German ifo Business Climate (8:00 am GMT)
What can we expect from EUR today?
The German ifo Business Climate deteriorated in June, led by the manufacturing and trade sectors as pessimistic expectations increased. July’s estimate of 88.9 points to a relatively unchanged business sentiment which could add some downward pressure on the Euro before the start of the European trading hours.
Central Bank Notes:
Next 24 Hours Bias
Weak Bullish
The Swiss Franc (CHF)
Key news events today
No major news events.
What can we expect from CHF today?
Demand for the greenback waned overnight as USD/CHF fell under 0.8850. This currency pair was trading around 0.8830 at the beginning of the Asia session – these are the support and resistance levels for today.
Support: 0.8820
Resistance: 0.8880
Central Bank Notes:
Next 24 Hours Bias
Weak Bearish
The Pound (GBP)
Key news events today
No major news events.
What can we expect from GBP today?
Cable hit an overnight high of 1.2937 before retreating away from this level. This currency pair was trading around 1.2890 as Asian markets came online and is expected to edge lower as the day progresses – these are the support and resistance levels for today.
Support: 1.2855
Resistance: 1.2940
Central Bank Notes:
Next 24 Hours Bias
Medium Bearish
The Canadian Dollar (CAD)
Key news events today
No major news events.
What can we expect from CAD today?
As widely expected, the Bank of Canada (BoC) cut its overnight rate for the second consecutive meeting by 25 basis points (bps) to bring it down to 4.50% while continuing to normalize its balance sheet. The Governing Council noted that excess supply in the Canadian economy has aided in cooling inflation in recent months, thus warranting looser monetary policy as the Canadian labour market has shown signs of moderation. In addition, the council also anticipates CPI inflation to decrease in the second half of the year due to base effects for gasoline prices, before steadying at the 2% level in 2025.
During the press conference, BoC Governor Tiff Macklem stated that policymakers are not on a predetermined rate path and will make decisions on a meeting-by-meeting basis based on incoming data. He also added that there was a clear consensus to cut by 25 bps at this recent meeting and that balance sheet normalization has still ways to go. The Loonie has lost nearly 1.4% over the last couple of weeks as USD/CAD gained almost 200 pips thus far.
Central Bank Notes:
Next 24 Hours Bias
Strong Bullish
Oil
Key news events today
No major news events.
What can we expect from Oil today?
The EIA crude oil inventories experienced a much higher-than-anticipated drawdown for the fourth week in a row as 3.74M barrels of crude were removed from storage to highlight the improved U.S. demand for oil. However, prices remain under pressure due to concerns over weak demand from China and potential ceasefire talks in the Middle East. WTI oil tumbled under $78.50 per barrel overnight and looks set to drift lower as the day progresses.
Next 24 Hours Bias
Medium Bearish
The post IC Markets Asia Fundamental Forecast | 25 July 2024 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.
402985 July 25, 2024 10:39 ICMarkets Market News
Wall Street Smashed – Nasdaq Down Over 3.5%
US stock indices were smashed in trading yesterday as investors pulled out of the tech and AI stocks that have sustained them over the past year. Disappointing earnings numbers from Telsa and Alphabet started the rout yesterday but momentum took over and the Nasdaq lost over $1 trillion in market capitalization, closing down 3.64% on the day, followed by the S&P which lost 2.31% and the Dow which closed, off 1.24%. US treasuries had an interesting day as the 2-year/10-year gap came into levels not seen since October 2023, the 2-year dropping 3.5 basis points to 4.410% whilst the 10-year gained 3.9 basis points to trade up to 4.278%. Oil prices had a bit of a reprieve as US stocks again dipped, Brent up 0.9% to $81.71 and WTI up 0.8% to $77.59 a barrel and Gold ultimately closed close to flat at $2,411 after earlier rallying to as high as $2,431 an ounce.
Yen Flying Again – Targeting 150 against the Dollar
The Yen had another stellar day in trading yesterday as it pushed higher again across the board. Traders are abandoning carry trades at an alarming rate which could signify that there are some people in the market that have a deeper insight into next week’s Bank of Japan meeting. Risk sentiment has taken a significant dent overnight as well and this tends to favour Yen buying. There is no doubt that large stop loss orders are being triggered on the way down against the dollar and other currencies, UsdJpy is now trading just above 153 and has already broken through a number of significant support levels. The next key support if the 200 Day Moving Average on the Daily chart which comes in around 151.50 and a break there opens the way to the key psychological level at 150 which is also close to a long term trendline support. Once again traders will be looking to sell into any rallies in the next few sessions until we get a change in the underlying sentiment.
Volatility High for Traders Today
Traders are bracing for yet more volatility in the sessions ahead as risk sentiment continues to decline at an alarming rate after a very poor day on Wall Street. Asian markets have little on the economic event calendar to interrupt that momentum and the same can be said for the European session with just the German IFO Business Climate data due out once London opens. There is a raft of data due out in the US today, which should grab investors’ attention, at least over the releases, with the usual weekly unemployment claims data being released alongside the quarterly Advance GDP and Durable Goods numbers. We are also due to hear from ECB President Christine LaGarde later in the day.
The post General Market Analysis 25/07/2024 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.
402937 July 24, 2024 18:39 ICMarkets Market News
Canadian dollar traders are preparing for a busy final session to the trading day today as the Bank of Canada is due to release its latest rate call with the market fully expecting to see a second consecutive 25 basis point cut from the central bank. Data has been pulling back hard in Canada and last week’s CPI number probably locked in today’s rate cut as it came in nicely below expectations on both the month-on-month and year-on-year print. Retail Sales numbers on Friday confirmed the slowing economy with the Core number coming it at -1.3% against an expect 0.5% decrease.
The Cad has depreciated hard against the greenback over the last couple of weeks with the dollar gaining around 1.3% against its northern neighbour and it is now sitting near significant resistance levels on both the Hourly and Daily charts which should provide good trading opportunities on the announcement, statement, and subsequent press conference. Resistance is now sitting just under 1.3820 with further resistance at the yearly high just 25 pips higher. Support comes in initially around 1.3700, however unless there is a much more hawkish than expected turn from the bank then expect the current trend to provide good buying opportunities on any dip.
Resistance 2 : 1.3846 – 2024 High
Resistance 1 : 1.3817 – Long-term Trendline Resistance
Support 1 : 1.3698 – 200-Day Moving Average
Support 2 : 1.3615 – Long-term Trendline Support
The post Trade the Cad on the Bank of Canada Rate Decision first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.