Articles

Global Markets:

• Asian Stock Markets : Nikkei down 0.85%, Shanghai Composite down 0.41%, Hang Seng down 2.09%, ASX down 0.81%
• Commodities : Gold at $1463.15 (+0.65%), Silver at $16.92 (+1.35%), Brent Oil at $61.77 (-0.47%), WTI Oil at $56.56 (-0.42%)
• Rates : US 10-year yield at 1.921, UK 10-year yield at 0.813, Germany 10-year yield at -0.267

News & Data:

• (NZD) Official Cash Rate 1.00% vs 0.75% expected
• (AUD) Wage Price Index q/q 0.50% vs 0.50% expected
• (AUD) Westpac Consumer Sentiment 4.50% vs -5.50% previous
• (EUR) German ZEW Economic Sentiment -2.1 vs -13.2 expected
• (GBP) Average Earnings Index 3m/y 3.60% vs 3.80% expected
• China to roll out digital Yuan ‘in 2-3 months’
• Surprise China sovereign Euro bond issue nets EUR4 billion

Markets Update:

Asian stock markets are in negative territory on Wednesday after a speech by U.S. President Donald Trump at the Economic Club of New York failed to provide any new information about the state of trade talks between the U.S. and China.

Trump claimed the Chinese are “dying to make a deal” and an agreement is “close”, but also threatened further increases in tariffs if a trade deal is not reached. In addition, worries about the growing unrest in Hong Kong weighed on the markets.

Mainland Chinese stocks were mixed, with the Shanghai composite down 0.4% and the Shenzhen component down 0.2%. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index led losses in the region as it fell 2.1% with shares of life insurer AIA plunging more than 3.5%. Japan’s Nikkei 225 declined 0.9% in afternoon trade as shares of index heavyweight Fast Retailing fell 1.9%.Shares in Korea also saw declines, as the Kospi slipped 0.9%. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 shed 0.8% as the heavily-weighted financial subindex fell around 1%.

The U.S. dollar index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of its peers, was last at 98.327 after touching highs around 98.4 yesterday. The yield on benchmark 10-year Treasury notes rose slightly to 1.9260% but is likely to move in a narrow range before data due later Wednesday that is forecast to show U.S. consumer prices accelerated slightly in October.

Upcoming Events:

• 09:30 AM GMT – (GBP) CPI y/y
• 01:30 PM GMT – (USD) CPI m/m
• 01:30 PM GMT – (USD) Core CPI m/m
• 04:00 PM GMT – (USD) Fed Chair Powell Testifies
• 07:10 PM GMT – (NZD) RBNZ Gov Orr Speaks
• 10:50 PM GMT – (AUD) RBA Assist Gov Bullock Speaks
• &more…

Key risk events today:

UK CPI y/y; UK Core CPI y/y; UK HPI y/y; UK PPI Input m/m; UK PPI Output m/m; UK RPI y/y; US CPI m/m and Core CPI m/m; Fed Chair Powell Testifies; RBNZ Gov Orr Speaks; RBA Assist Gov Bullock Speaks.

EUR/USD:

Tuesday had Europe’s single currency navigating lower ground vs. the buck, consequently erasing Monday’s gains and chalking up a low of 1.1002. EUR/USD shrugged off better-than-expected German ZEW Economic Sentiment, posting minus 2.1 points, vs. expected -13.2.

New York – (Reuters) President Donald Trump also stated on Tuesday the United States is close to signing a ‘phase one’ trade deal with China, adding in a speech to the Economic Club of New York he will only accept a deal if it is good for his country and US workers.

Following on from Tuesday’s technical research, chart studies show a distinct double-top pattern formed (peaks plotted at 1.1179/1.1175) after breaking the 1.1073 October 24 low (the confirmation point) on November 5. Some technicians would label the peaks as an ‘eve and eve’ formation, considered to be a higher-probability pattern. The next downside target on this scale can be seen at the 1.10 handle, sited close by September’s opening level at 1.0989 and a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement ratio at 1.0994. The double-top’s take-profit target is set beneath this value at 1.0965 (black arrows – measured by taking the value from the tallest peak and adding this to the breakout point).

Weekly flow, also highlighted in Tuesday’s research, has sellers marching south from the underside of a long-standing resistance area drawn from 1.1119-1.1295, recording its worst weekly decline since August last week. Increased selling has the lower boundary of a descending channel to target (extended from the low 1.1109), set a few points north of the 2016 yearly opening level at 1.0873. Concerning trend direction, the primary downtrend has been in motion since topping in early 2018 at 1.2555.

Daily research had the pair turn lower from the underside of its 50-day SMA (blue – 1.1040) yesterday, setting the stage for a potential run towards demand at 1.0851-1.0950 – houses the 2016 yearly opening level mentioned above on the weekly timeframe at 1.0873.

Areas of consideration:

Outlook unchanged.

Traders short the H4 double top pattern have likely reduced risk to breakeven and are close to liquidating a portion of the position. The initial take-profit target, as underscored above, is set around the key figure 1.10. Considering its local confluence (sited close by September’s opening level at 1.0989 and a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement ratio at 1.0994), active buying is expected from here. However, with higher-timeframe structure suggesting a move to as low as the top edge of daily demand plotted at 1.0950 this week, which happens to converge closely with the H4 double-top’s take-profit target, it’s unlikely the buying will be anything to get excited about.

GBP/USD:

Despite kicking off the week strongly, GBP/USD movement entered a reasonably narrow consolidation Tuesday, between 1.2873/1.2815. On the data front, unemployment in the UK ticked lower by 3.8% vs. 3.9%, while average earnings reported a 3.6% decline vs. 3.7%, revised from 3.8%. US data was limited, though US President Donald Trump, in a speech to the Economic Club of New York, did state the US were close to signing a ‘phase one’ trade deal with China.

Technically, the H4 candles remain hovering mid-range between 1.29/1.28, with another leg higher seen as a real possibility. Those who read Monday’s weekly technical briefing may recall the following piece:

Following a brief period of consolidation a few points north of 1.28, likely gathering buy orders, GBP/USD action swung lower and shook hands with an interesting area of support marked in grey. Made up of weekly support at 1.2739 and daily support coming in at 1.2769, as well as a H4 ABCD correction pattern taken from the high 1.3012 (black arrows) and RSI confirmation (hidden bullish divergence within oversold territory – blue line), this area is likely of interest for potential longs today/early this week. What’s also interesting is a number of sell stops were tripped on the break of 1.28, both from traders attempting to fade the figure and those short the breakout, thus potentially providing liquidity to buy.

A bounce from 1.2739/1.2769 followed up with a break back above 1.28 on a H4 closing basis could entice buyers into the market. A conservative entry on the close of the breakout candle is then an option, with protective stop-loss orders either plotted beneath 1.2739 or the lower shadow of the breakout candle.

Areas of consideration:

Outlook unchanged.

Traders who entered long above 1.28 on the back of the H4 closing candle at 1.2803 ended Monday with a smile. With risk reduced to breakeven and the majority of the position liquidated, traders are still, noting we have higher-timeframe supports in play, likely looking for additional gains.

An upside break of 1.29 today could draw in November’s opening level at 1.2938, followed closely by a daily resistance area at 1.3019-1.2975 and the key figure 1.30. As you can see, fresh longs above 1.29 may prove problematic. Therefore, bearish scenarios could be an option as we close in on 1.2975/1.30.

AUD/USD:

AUD/USD prices head into Wednesday’s Asia-Pac hours mostly unmoved.

On the trade front, US President Donald Trump, in a speech to the Economic Club of New York, did, however, state the US were close to signing a ‘phase one’ trade deal with China, though failed to offer details on when a signing could happen.

From a technical perspective, the unit’s position remains unchanged from previous reports (italics):

Recent activity on the weekly timeframe witnessed the AUD/USD deliver a two-candle fakeout to the top edge of a 3-month long consolidation zone between 0.6894/0.6677 (light grey). Although likely to encourage further selling over the coming weeks, resistance outside of the said range holds at the 2019 yearly opening level drawn from 0.7042, in the event we push higher. With a primary downtrend in play since early 2018, breaking higher is likely to be a challenge.

In conjunction with weekly analysis, daily swing resistance seen at 0.6910 – coupled with daily trend line resistance taken from the high 0.7393 – held price action lower last week. Further downside from this point will likely draw in daily support at 0.6808, aligning closely with the 50-day SMA (blue – 0.6817 [rising]). Note the 200-day SMA (orange – 0.6941) remains pointing south.

Areas of consideration:

Traders who sold short the market around 0.69/H4 trend line support-turned resistance (0.6723) – a noted move to watch for in previous writing – based on Friday’s H4 inside candle (black arrow) remain in healthy gains. The next downside target is seen close by in the form a H4 trend line support extended from the low 0.6670, closely shadowed by H4 support at 0.6809 and then 0.68. Furthermore, it may also be worth noting daily support resides at 0.6808 (essentially the same barrier as H4 support) along with a 50-day SMA (blue – 0.6817).

USD/JPY:

USD/JPY activity failed to sustain gains beyond 109.29 Tuesday, rotating south into European hours and concluding the day mostly unchanged. In recent hours, the H4 candles crossed beneath the 109 handle, eyeing a possible move towards a H4 AB=CD (black arrows) completion between the 161.8/127.2% Fibonacci extension points (green) at 108.53/108.73.

While H4 is gearing up for a possible bounce from 108.53/108.73, a wider perspective demonstrates strong resistance may be in store. Weekly movement shows resistance nearing in the form of the 2019 yearly opening level at 109.68 and a 127.2% Fibonacci ext. point at 109.56 (taken from the low 104.44). Also sited close by is trend line resistance extended from the high 114.23.

Activity on the daily timeframe remains entrenched within an ascending wedge formation (104.44/108.47 – red lines), though recently pushed beneath its 200-day SMA (orange – 109.01). Having noted weekly resistance plotted nearby at 109.68, and a daily ascending wedge formation unfolding since early September, the likelihood of a continuation north, long term that is, is unlikely.

Areas of consideration:

A bounce from 108.53/108.73 to at least 109 is certainly a possibility today. The danger, of course, comes with knowing the unit is trading close to resistance on the higher timeframes.

In the event we reclaim 109 back to the upside, however, and cross swords with H4 Quasimodo resistance at 109.74 (not visible on the screen), selling this market is then an option. Knowing the Quasimodo resistance boasts additional backing from weekly structure is certainly appealing.

USD/CAD:

USD/CAD trade flow wrapped up Tuesday’s session unchanged, forming a reasonably clear-cut doji indecision candle on the daily timeframe. Price action, as you can see, remains sandwiched between the 50-day SMA (blue – 1.3205) and 200-day SMA (orange – 1.3275).

In terms of H4 price action, nonetheless, the candles remain stationed beneath October’s opening level at 1.3239, despite an earnest attempt to conquer this region yesterday. Should H4 price overthrow 1.3239, limited resistance is visible until reaching 1.33. Supporting 1.33 as a resistance area, we have a potential ABCD correction (black arrows) terminating at 1.3287, a 161.8% Fibonacci ext. point at 1.3314, Quasimodo resistance at 1.3310 and September’s opening level at 1.3314 (green). In addition, the 200-day SMA is seen lurking just south of this zone.

Technical research on the weekly timeframe continues to exhibit a bullish presence as buyers extended the recovery off trend line support (taken from the low 1.2061) in reasonably strong fashion last week. Additional upside from this point has tops around 1.3342 in sight, closely followed by the 2017 yearly opening level at 1.3434 and trend line resistance taken from the peak at 1.3661. Overall, the immediate trend faces north since bottoming in September 2017, though this move could also be considered a deep pullback in a larger downtrend from the 1.4689 peak in early January 2016.

Areas of consideration:

Outlook unchanged.

1.3314/1.3287 on the H4 timeframe is certainly an area of resistance to keep an eye on for potential shorts.

More immediate, however, we could witness a retest at 1.32 form should sellers defend 1.3239. A long based off this level has the backing of weekly price rallying from its trend line support, and daily price recently crossing above its 50-day SMA. In order to help avoid a whipsaw to November’s opening level at 1.3168, though, traders may opt to wait and see if a H4 bullish candlestick signal forms before pulling the trigger, targeting 1.3239 as the initial upside target.

USD/CHF:

In recent hours, demand for the Swiss franc picked up, consequently guiding USD/CHF lower in early Asia. With the current H4 candle closing not too far off its lows, price is potentially poised to cross swords with 0.99, which happens to merge closely with September’s opening level at 0.9896, a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at 0.9900, a 161.8% Fibonacci ext. point at 0.9897 and a trend line resistance-turned support taken from the high 1.0027.

The story on the daily timeframe sees the current candle touching gloves with its 50-day SMA (blue – 0.9922) after reclaiming the 200-day SMA (orange – 0.9952) to the downside. A break of the said 50-day function could witness a move towards 0.9845ish (green).

Supply at 1.0014-0.9892 sited on the weekly timeframe remains in play. The beginning of October witnessed a penetration to the outer edge of the supply area’s limit, possibly tripping a portion of buy stops and weakening sellers. An upside move out of the said supply may draw in Quasimodo resistance at 1.0124, while downside has the 2018 yearly opening level at 0.9744 in sight. According to the primary trend, price also reflects a slightly bullish tone; however, do remain aware we have been rangebound since the later part of 2015 (0.9444/1.0240).

Areas of consideration:

Although boasting limited support from the higher timeframes, the 0.99 handle, along with its supporting confluence on the H4 timeframe (see above), is perhaps sufficient to entice buyers into the market for at least a bounce. Given the area of support is small in size, waiting for a H4 bullish candlestick configuration to form is certainly something to consider knowing psychological levels are often whipsawed (entry/risk levels can be determined according to the H4 bull candle pattern).

Dow Jones Industrial Average:

Major US equity indexes wrapped up Tuesday mostly higher, following US President Trump suggesting the US is close to signing a ‘phase one’ trade deal with China, though did not offer clarity on a rollback of import tariffs. The Dow Jones industrial average closed flat; the S&P 500 advanced 4.83 points, or 0.16% and the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 rose 21.88 points, or 0.27%.

The Dow’s technical picture reveals the H4 candles are seen teasing channel support extended from the low of 25710. As of yet, price action has failed to generate much to the upside off this point; in fact, a mild break is evident according to current price which may spur selling back towards weekly support priced in at 27335.

Areas of consideration:

A decisive H4 close beneath the current H4 channel support may offer sellers a chance to short back to weekly support at 27335. However, do remain cognisant the Dow recently clocked fresh all-time highs and the primary trend has been in motion for a number of years.

In the event we do cross paths with weekly support, waiting for either a H4 or daily bullish candlestick signal to develop is recommended as this could be a pivotal location to join the current trend (entry and risk can be set according to the selected candlestick pattern).

XAU/USD (GOLD):

Gold prices finished Tuesday mostly unmoved, though did print a half-hearted hammer candlestick formation on the daily timeframe (considered a bullish signal) off the top edge of a support area coming in at 1448.9-1419.9 (aligns closely with a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement ratio at 1448.5). What’s also interesting here is the completion of a potential three-drive pattern around the top edge of the said support zone (black arrows).

From the H4 timeframe, a move higher will draw price action back to Quasimodo support-turned resistance at 1464.2, closely trailed by a trend line support-turned resistance etched from the low 1381.9 and then October’s opening level at 1472.8.

Weekly price, on the other hand, dethroned a significant support area at 1487.9-1470.2 last week, suggesting a continuation to the downside to supports coming in at 1392.0 and 1417.8.

Areas of consideration:

Technically speaking, XAU/USD offers conflicting signals at present. On one side we have weekly price portending a reasonably considerable move lower, while on the other side of the field daily price threatens a recovery from the top edge of its support area/three-drive completion. As you can see, irrespective of the direction selected, opposition is clear on both sides of the market.

A retest of the H4 resistances between 1472.8/1464.2 is a likely scenario today, but selling this area, although alongside weekly flow, places you strongly in the face of daily buyers. While weekly structure typically dominates lower timeframes, traders are still urged to trade with caution.

The accuracy, completeness and timeliness of the information contained on this site cannot be guaranteed. IC Markets does not warranty, guarantee or make any representations, or assume any liability regarding financial results based on the use of the information in the site.

News, views, opinions, recommendations and other information obtained from sources outside of www.icmarkets.com.au, used in this site are believed to be reliable, but we cannot guarantee their accuracy or completeness. All such information is subject to change at any time without notice. IC Markets assumes no responsibility for the content of any linked site.

The fact that such links may exist does not indicate approval or endorsement of any material contained on any linked site. IC Markets is not liable for any harm caused by the transmission, through accessing the services or information on this site, of a computer virus, or other computer code or programming device that might be used to access, delete, damage, disable, disrupt or otherwise impede in any manner, the operation of the site or of any user’s software, hardware, data or property.

Global Markets:

• Asian Stock Markets : Nikkei up
  0.81%, Shanghai Composite down 0.08%, Hang Seng up 0.31%, ASX down 0.29%
• Commodities : Gold at $1453.65
  (-0.24%), Silver at $16.80 (0.00%), Brent Oil at $62.40 (+0.35%), WTI Oil at
  $57.05 (+0.33%)
• Rates : US 10-year yield at
  1.935, UK 10-year yield at 0.811, Germany 10-year yield at -0.250

News & Data:

• (NZD) Inflation Expectations
  q/q 1.80% vs 1.86% previous
• (AUD) NAB Business Confidence 2
  vs 0 previous
• (GBP) Manufacturing Production
  m/m -0.40% vs -0.20% expected
• (GBP) GDP m/m -0.10% vs -0.10%
  expected
• (GBP) Prelim GDP q/q 0.30% vs
  0.40% expected
• (CNY) New Loans 661B vs 800B
  expected
• Westpac Now Sees RBNZ Cutting
  Cash Rate (Saw Rate Being Held At 1%)
• China should cut rates, but not
  use monetary flooding: central bank advisor

Markets Update:

Asian stock markets are mixed on Tuesday
with investors treading cautiously following the lackluster cues overnight from
Wall Street amid uncertainty about a potential U.S.-China trade deal and an
escalation of violence in Hong Kong. Investors also looked ahead to a speech by
U.S. President Donald Trump at the Economic Club of New York later in the day.

Trump wrongfooted markets over the weekend
when he said there had been incorrect reporting about U.S. willingness to lift
tariffs on China. On a more positive note, Politico reported Trump would
announce this week that he is delaying a decision on whether to slap tariffs on
imported European Union autos for another six months.

Mainland Chinese shares were lower by the
afternoon as the Shenzhen component fell 0.1% and the Shenzhen composite
declined 0.4%. Meanwhile, market movements in Hong Kong continue to be
monitored, as the Hang Seng index rose 0.3% with shares of Chinese tech giant
Tencent gaining more than 1%. Japan’s Nikkei 225 was 0.8% higher in afternoon
trade while the Topix index gained 0.2%.

In currency markets, the main action was in
sterling which hit a six-month high on the euro after the Brexit Party said it
would not contest previously Conservative held seats in the UK election. The
U.S. dollar index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of its peers,
was last at 98.226 after seeing levels above 98.3 yesterday.

Spot gold suffered a third day of declines,
to touch its lowest since early August at $1,453.65. Oil prices edged lower as
the lack of progress on U.S.-China trade negotiations kept prices pressured,
though bullish inventory data offered some support.

Upcoming Events:

• 09:30 AM GMT – (GBP) Average Earnings Index 3m/y
• 10:00 AM GMT – (EUR) German ZEW Economic Sentiment
• 10:30 AM GMT – (USD) FOMC Member Clarida Speaks
• 05:00 PM GMT – (USD) President Trump Speaks
• 11:30 PM GMT – (AUD) Westpac Consumer Sentiment
• &more…

Key risk events today:

UK Average Earnings Index 3m/y; UK
Claimant Count Change; UK Unemployment Rate; German ZEW Economic Sentiment; FOMC
Member Clarida Speaks.

EUR/USD:

EUR/USD movement opened the new week a
shade higher, consequently snapping a five-day bearish phase from 1.1175. The
dollar index, or DXY, receded from highs of 98.40, poised to revisit its 98.00
threshold.

On the data front, there was not too
much to shout about. As reported by the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis), the
selling prices in wholesale trade fell by 2.3% in October 2019 from the
corresponding month of the preceding year. From September 2019 to October 2019
the index slightly fell by 0.1%. US banks were also closed in observance of
Veterans Day.

Technically, the EUR/USD concluded pretty
much unchanged.

Weekly flow has sellers marching south from
the underside of a long-standing resistance area drawn from 1.1119-1.1295, recording
its worst weekly decline since August last week. Increased selling has the
lower boundary of a descending channel to target (extended from the low
1.1109), set a few points north of the 2016 yearly opening level at 1.0873. Concerning
trend direction, the primary downtrend has been in motion since topping in
early 2018 at 1.2555.

Although a mild pullback was observed
Monday, the daily 50-day SMA (blue – 1.1041) proved a tough nut to crack, in
terms of dynamic resistance. With the said SMA in sight, as well as another
layer of daily resistance sited at 1.1072, traders’ crosshairs likely remain
fixed on daily demand at 1.0851-1.0950 – houses the 2016 yearly opening level
mentioned above on the weekly timeframe at 1.0873.

As underscored in recent technical research on the H4 timeframe, a distinct double-top pattern formed (peaks plotted at 1.1179/1.1175) after breaking the 1.1073 October 24 low (the confirmation point) on November 5. Some technicians would label the peaks as an ‘eve and eve’ formation, considered to be a higher-probability pattern. The next downside target on this scale can be seen at the 1.10 handle, sited close by September’s opening level at 1.0989 and a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement ratio at 1.0994. Despite yesterday’s pullback, the pair is still likely to test 1.10, given the double-top’s take-profit target is set beneath this value at 1.0965 (black arrows – measured by taking the value from the tallest peak and adding this to the breakout point).

Areas of
consideration:

Traders short the H4 double top pattern
likely reduced risk to breakeven before the close. The initial take-profit
target, as underscored above, is set around the key figure 1.10. Considering
its local confluence (sited close by September’s opening level at 1.0989 and
a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement ratio at 1.0994), active buying is expected
from here. However, with higher-timeframe structure suggesting a move to as low
as the top edge of daily demand plotted at 1.0950 this week, which happens to
converge closely with the H4 double-top’s take-profit target, it’s unlikely the
buying will be anything to get excited about.

GBP/USD:

Sterling, an outperformer against its US
counterpart Monday, advanced more than 80 points, or 0.63%. The main catalyst fell
on news that Brexit Party’s Nigel Farage announced his party will not be
contesting any conservative led seats as he was worried about a hung parliament
if he were to go ahead with his initial plan after UK Prime Minister Boris
Johnson rejected his leave alliance deal. The move lifted GBP/USD action to
highs just shy of the 1.29 handle, before mildly trimming gains into the close.

In terms of macroeconomic data, UK gross
domestic product (GDP), released by the Office for National Statistics, came in
lower than expected at 0.3% in Q3 2019. UK manufacturing production m/m also disappointed.

Traders who read Monday’s technical
briefing may recall the following:

Following a brief period of
consolidation a few points north of 1.28, likely gathering buy orders, GBP/USD
action swung lower and shook hands with an interesting area of support marked
in grey. Made up of weekly support at 1.2739 and daily support coming in at
1.2769, as well as a H4 ABCD correction pattern taken from the high 1.3012
(black arrows) and RSI confirmation (hidden bullish divergence within oversold
territory – blue line), this area is likely of interest for potential longs
today/early this week. What’s also interesting is a number of sell stops were
tripped on the break of 1.28, both from traders attempting to fade the figure
and those short the breakout, thus potentially providing liquidity to buy.

A bounce from 1.2739/1.2769 followed up
with a break back above 1.28 on a H4 closing basis could entice buyers into the
market. A conservative entry on the close of the breakout candle is then an
option, with protective stop-loss orders either plotted beneath 1.2739 or the
lower shadow of the breakout candle.

Areas of consideration:

Traders who entered long above 1.28 on
the back of the H4 closing candle at 1.2803 ended Monday with a smile. With
risk reduced to breakeven and the majority of the position liquidated, traders
are now likely looking for additional gains.

An upside break of 1.29 today could draw
in November’s opening level at 1.2938, followed by a possible move to the key
figure 1.30. Until 1.2938 is engulfed, entering fresh longs is tricky on the H4
scale.

AUD/USD:

Following last week’s decline of more
than 55 points, AUD/USD action wrapped up Monday mostly unmoved as US banks closed
in observance of Veterans Day. As such, we head into Tuesday employing a
similar outlook aired in Monday’s technical briefing.

Recent activity on the weekly timeframe
witnessed the AUD/USD deliver a two-candle fakeout to the top edge of a 3-month
long consolidation zone between 0.6894/0.6677 (light grey). Although likely to
encourage further selling over the coming weeks, resistance outside of the said
range holds at the 2019 yearly opening level drawn from 0.7042, in the event we
push higher.

With a primary downtrend in play since
early 2018, breaking higher is likely to be a challenge.

In conjunction with weekly analysis,
daily swing resistance seen at 0.6910 – coupled with daily trend line
resistance taken from the high 0.7393 – held price action lower last week.
Further downside from this point will likely draw in daily support at 0.6808,
aligning closely with the 50-day SMA (blue – 0.6816 [rising]). Note the 200-day
SMA (orange – 0.6942) remains pointing south.

Friday kicked off defensively after the Reserve
Bank of Australia (RBA) reiterated the board is prepared to ease policy further
if needed. This, alongside a robust US dollar and US President Trump stating he
has not yet agreed to roll back tariffs on China, added to the downbeat tone
throughout the day.  

Traders who read Friday morning’s
technical briefing may recall the following piece (slightly adapted):

With buyers and sellers squaring off
around the 0.69 region and trend line support-turned resistance (0.6723) this
morning, as well as resistance observed on the higher timeframes, technical
studies suggest sellers have the upper hand. Should a notable H4 bearish
candlestick signal form from 0.69 today, this may encourage a run lower,
targeting yesterday’s session low at 0.6861, followed by H4 support coming in
at 0.6809/trend line support etched from the low 0.6670.

Denoted by a black arrow, Friday sported
an inside candlestick formation prior to the descent and engulfed 0.6861,
potentially clearing the path to the H4 trend line support/H4 support
combination highlighted above.

Areas of consideration:

Outlook unchanged.

From a technical standpoint, additional
downside is a possibility this week at least until reaching H4 support at
0.6809 (essentially marking the same base as daily support at 0.6808). Despite
this, though, a minor pullback is expected due to the completion of a H4 ABCD
correction taken from the high 0.6928 (blue arrows), though is unlikely to
breach 0.69.

Those short Friday’s H4 inside candle
formation likely reduced risk to breakeven before the weekly close, with eyes
on lower levels this week. Traders who missed the move may, assuming a
correction based on the H4 ABCD pattern, get a second opportunity to enter
short, preferably around the 0.69 region. 

USD/JPY:

USD/JPY traded modestly lower Monday, weighed
by US President Trump’s recent comments regarding tariffs on China, as well as geopolitical
concerns intensifying in Hong Kong in early trade.

Technically, the H4 candles revisited
the 109 region yesterday and have so far held ground, despite a mild breach to
lows of 108.89. South of here lies last Thursday’s low 108.64, while to the
upside tops are visible at around the 109.50ish mark, closely shadowed by a Quasimodo
resistance at 109.74 (not visible on the screen).

On a wider perspective, weekly movement reveals
resistance is nearing in the form of the 2019 yearly opening level at 109.68
and a 127.2% Fibonacci ext. point at 109.56 (taken from the low 104.44). Also
sited close by is trend line resistance extended from the high 114.23.

Activity on the daily timeframe holds
north of the 200-day SMA (orange – 109.01), which, by and of itself, is
considered a bullish indicator. Having noted weekly resistance plotted nearby
at 109.68, and a daily ascending wedge formation unfolding since early
September (104.44/108.47 – red lines), the likelihood of a continuation north,
long term that is, is unlikely.

Areas of consideration:

Outlook unchanged.

While traders may have bought 109 as a
point of potential support, in hopes of joining the immediate trend, the fact
we came within 8 points of connecting with weekly structure is concerning.
Therefore, a cautious stance in regards to longs is recommended.

In the event we continue to punch higher
from current price, however, and cross swords with H4 Quasimodo resistance at
109.74, selling this market countertrend is then an option. Knowing the
Quasimodo resistance boasts additional backing from weekly structure is
certainly appealing. Given this is a countertrend trade, though, traders may
find comfort in waiting for additional H4 bearish candlestick confirmation to
form before pulling the trigger. A bearish candlestick signal will not
guarantee a winning trade, but it will help identify seller intent and provide
entry and risk levels to work with.

USD/CAD:

Monday had the US dollar a touch higher
vs. the Canadian dollar, though impetus was lacking due to US and Canadian
banks closing in observance of Veterans Day and Remembrance Day, respectively.
WTI prices nudged lower, holding south of $57.50/bbl, while the dollar index modestly
retreated.

USD/CAD flow, in recent hours, gathered
momentum and is attempting to dethrone October’s opening level at 1.3239 on the
H4 scale.

In similar fashion to Monday’s technical
briefing, weekly price continues to exhibit a
bullish presence as buyers extend the recovery off trend line support (taken
from the low 1.2061) in reasonably strong fashion. Additional upside from this
point has tops around 1.3342 in sight, closely followed by the 2017 yearly
opening level at 1.3434 and trend line resistance taken from the peak at
1.3661. Overall, the immediate trend faces north since bottoming in September
2017, though this move could also be considered a deep pullback in a larger
downtrend from the 1.4689 peak in early January 2016.

A closer reading of price action on the
daily timeframe reveals the unit closed above the 50-day SMA (blue – 1.3205),
suggesting a possible approach towards the 200-day SMA (orange – 1.3275) may
come about this week.

Should H4 price overthrow 1.3239,
limited resistance is visible until reaching 1.33. Supporting 1.33 as a
resistance area, we have a potential ABCD correction (black arrows) terminating
at 1.3287, a 161.8% Fibonacci ext. point at 1.3314, Quasimodo resistance at
1.3310 and September’s opening level at 1.3314 (green). In addition, the
200-day SMA is seen lurking just south of this zone.

Areas of consideration:

Outlook unchanged.

1.3314/1.3287 on the H4 timeframe is
certainly an area of resistance to keep an eye on for potential shorts.

More immediate, however, we could
witness a retest at 1.32 form as support today should sellers defend 1.3239. A
long based off this level has the backing of weekly price rallying from its
trend line support, and daily price recently crossing above its 50-day SMA. In
order to help avoid a whipsaw to November’s opening level at 1.3168, though,
traders may opt to wait and see if a H4 bullish candlestick signal forms before
pulling the trigger, targeting 1.3239 as the initial upside target.

USD/CHF:

Safe-haven demand benefitted the Swiss franc
Monday, weighed by renewed trade uncertainty between the US and China.

Based on Monday’s technical briefing,
traders may recall the following:

Broad-based USD strength Friday lifted
the H4 candles to October’s opening level at 0.9977, where a modest reaction
was observed into the close. Accompanied closely by a Quasimodo resistance
level at 0.9991, a H4 ABCD correction (red arrows) at 0.9982 and the 1.0000
figure (parity), we have ourselves a reasonably tight area of resistance to
work with today/early this week.

From the weekly timeframe:

Supply at 1.0014-0.9892 remains in play,
despite recent buying. The beginning of October witnessed a penetration to the
outer edge of the supply area’s limit, possibly tripping a portion of buy stops
and weakening sellers. An upside move out of the said supply may draw in
Quasimodo resistance at 1.0124, while downside has the 2018 yearly opening
level at 0.9744 in sight.

According to the primary trend, price
also reflects a slightly bullish tone; however, do remain aware we have been
rangebound since the later part of 2015 (0.9444/1.0240).

Technical research on the daily
timeframe reveals price overthrew the 200-day SMA function Friday (orange –
0.9953), though crossed back beneath the value yesterday. A few points north of
the said SMA sits a familiar resistance area coming in at 1.0010/0.9986.

Areas of consideration:

Well done to any readers who managed to
sell 1.0000/0.9977. Not only is the zone positioned within the walls of the
current weekly supply, it is also glued to the underside of the noted daily
resistance area. The 50-day SMA (blue – 0.9920) appears to be the next logical
downside target.

Dow Jones Industrial Average:

US stocks kicked off the week in
negative territory, falling amid uncertainty surrounding trade between the US
and China. The
Dow Jones industrial average closed flat; the S&P 500 erased 6.07 points,
or 0.20% and the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 lost 13.97 points, or 0.17%.

The Dow’s technical picture, despite US
President Trump sparking fresh doubts about when the world’s two largest
economies will end a 16-month trade war, reveals the H4 candles retested
channel support extended from the low of 25710. Price action traders may
also wish to acknowledge recent movement formed a reasonably nice-looking
hammer candlestick pattern on the daily timeframe (considered a bullish signal).

In
terms of higher-timeframe structure, however, weekly support is a central
floor at 27335.

Areas of consideration:

The rebound off H4 channel support
yesterday has likely caught the attention of many chartists, with some likely entering
long at the close of the H4 rejection candle (27653), with protective stop-loss
orders plotted around 27464. For some traders, though, this may represent too
much risk. Therefore, waiting and seeing if an additional retest occurs might
be an option.

XAU/USD (GOLD):

In recent trade, the yellow metal opened
the new week lower, trading as far south as 1448.4 against the greenback.

From the H4 timeframe, we can see price
action retested Quasimodo support-turned resistance at 1464.2 and H4 trend
line support-turned resistance extended from the low 1381.9, and traded lower. For
traders who read Monday’s technical briefing you may recall the following
piece:

Having
watched weekly price dethrone a significant support area at 1487.9-1470.2 and
daily price exhibit space to press lower to a daily support area at 1448.9-1419.9,
selling the H4 rejection candle off the underside of the H4 Quasimodo
support-turned resistance at 1464.2 and H4 trend line support-turned resistance
could be an option.

With
a protective stop-loss order plotted above 1468.2 and an entry at current
price, there’s ample room to reduce risk to breakeven before connecting with
the first downside target: the top edge of the daily support area at 1448.9.

As
evident from the chart, those who entered short Monday ended the session in
profit as daily price shook hands with the top edge of its support area mentioned
above at 1448.9-1419.9 (aligns closely with a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement ratio
at 1448.5). What’s also interesting here is the completion of a potential
three-drive pattern around the top edge of the said support zone (black
arrows). 

Areas
of consideration:

On
the one hand, we now have daily buyers likely attempting to make an appearance,
though on the other hand weekly sellers likely target support coming in at
1392.0 and 1417.8. As you can see, irrespective of the direction selected,
opposition is clear on both sides of the market.

For
sellers short, reducing risk to breakeven and liquidating a portion of the
position is certainly something to consider. However, keeping a portion of the
position running in case weekly price (tends to override daily structure) kicks
in and pushes lower is also worthy of consideration.

The accuracy, completeness and
timeliness of the information contained on this site cannot be guaranteed. IC
Markets does not warranty, guarantee or make any representations, or assume any
liability regarding financial results based on the use of the information in
the site.

News, views, opinions, recommendations
and other information obtained from sources outside of www.icmarkets.com.au,
used in this site are believed to be reliable, but we cannot guarantee their
accuracy or completeness. All such information is subject to change at any time
without notice. IC Markets assumes no responsibility for the content of any
linked site.

The fact that such links may exist does
not indicate approval or endorsement of any material contained on any linked
site. IC Markets is not liable for any harm caused by the transmission, through
accessing the services or information on this site, of a computer virus, or
other computer code or programming device that might be used to access, delete,
damage, disable, disrupt or otherwise impede in any manner, the operation of
the site or of any user’s software, hardware, data or property.

Global Markets:

• Asian Stock Markets : Nikkei
  down 0.26%, Shanghai Composite down 1.75%, Hang Seng down 2.72%, ASX up 0.72%
• Commodities : Gold at $1463.65
  (+0.05%), Silver at $16.83 (+0.03%), Brent Oil at $61.86 (-1.04%), WTI Oil at
  $56.63 (-1.07%)
• Rates : US 10-year yield at
  1.945, UK 10-year yield at 0.791, Germany 10-year yield at -0.268

News & Data:

• (CNY) CPI y/y 3.80% vs 3.20%
  expected
• (USD) Prelim UoM Consumer
  Sentiment 95.7 vs 96 expected
• (CAD) Unemployment Rate 5.50%
  vs 5.50% expected
• (CAD) Employment Change -1.8K
  vs 14.7K expected
• World Bank’s Garcia Mora on
  Fintech Trends, Regulation, Digital Currencies
• BOJ debated whether to boost
  stimulus if inflation momentum stalls: October summary

CFTC Positioning
Data:

• EUR short 61K vs 53K short last
  week. Shorts increased by 8K
• GBP short 29K vs 32K short last
  week. Shorts trimmed by 3K
• JPY short 27K vs 20K short last
  week. Shorts increased by 7K
• CHF short 14k vs 12k short last
  week. Shorts increased by 2K
• AUD short 27k vs 40k short last
  week. Shorts trimmed by 13K
• NZD short 39K vs 40K short last
  week. Shorts trimmed by 1K
• CAD long 54 vs 44K long last
  week.  Longs increased by 10K.

Markets Update:

Asian stock markets, led by Hong Kong, are
mostly lower on Monday despite the modest gains on Wall Street Friday as
uncertainty about a U.S.-China trade deal and rising political turmoil in Hong
Kong dampened investor sentiment. According to reports, at least two protesters
were injured in Hong Kong after police opened fire at mass demonstrations in
the city.

In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng index was deep
in negative territory, declining 2.7% as political turmoil in the city
worsened. At least two protesters were said to be injured when local police
opened fire on Monday at mass demonstrations.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 reversed early gains to
trade down 0.3% while the Topix index was flat. South Korea’s Kospi fell 0.6%
as major chipmaker SK Hynix slid 1.70%. In Australia, the benchmark ASX 200
defied the general downward trend in the region and rose 0.7%.

Data on October U.S. industrial production
and retail sales, along with the National Federation of Independent Business’s
monthly small business survey, are scheduled for release this week. Analysts
said the outlook for equities was highly dependent on U.S. economic data as a
U.S.-China trade agreement would help bolster manufacturing and industrial
sectors.

Upcoming Events:

Monday, November 11, 2019  

• 09:30 AM GMT – (GBP) Prelim GDP
  q/q
• 09:30 AM GMT – (GBP) GDP m/m
• 09:30 AM GMT – (GBP)
  Manufacturing Production m/m

Tuesday, November 12, 2019  

• 12:30 AM GMT – (AUD) NAB
  Business Confidence
• 02:00 AM GMT – (NZD) Inflation
  Expectations q/q
• 12th-14th GMT – (CNY) New Loans
• 09:30 AM GMT – (GBP) Average
  Earnings Index 3m/y
• 10:00 AM GMT – (EUR) German ZEW
  Economic Sentiment
• 10:30 AM GMT – (USD) FOMC
  Member Clarida Speaks
• 11:30 PM GMT – (AUD) Westpac
  Consumer Sentiment

Wednesday, November 13, 2019  

• 12:30 AM GMT – (AUD) Wage Price
  Index q/q
• 01:00 AM GMT – (NZD) Official Cash
  Rate
• 01:00 AM GMT – (NZD) RBNZ
  Monetary Policy Statement
• 01:00 AM GMT – (NZD) RBNZ Rate
  Statement
• 02:00 AM GMT – (NZD) RBNZ Press
  Conference
• 09:30 AM GMT – (GBP) CPI y/y
• 01:30 PM GMT – (USD) CPI m/m
• 01:30 PM GMT – (USD) Core CPI
  m/m
• 04:00 PM GMT – (USD) Fed Chair
  Powell Testifies
• 10:50 PM GMT – (AUD) RBA Assist
  Gov Bullock Speaks

Thursday, November 14, 2019  

• 12:30 AM GMT – (AUD) Employment
  Change
• 12:30 AM GMT – (AUD)
  Unemployment Rate
• 02:00 AM GMT – (CNY) Fixed
  Asset Investment ytd/y
• 02:00 AM GMT – (CNY) Industrial
  Production y/y
• 07:00 AM GMT – (EUR) German
  Prelim GDP q/q
• 09:30 AM GMT – (GBP) Retail
  Sales m/m
• 01:30 PM GMT – (USD) Core PPI
  m/m
• 01:30 PM GMT – (USD) PPI m/m
• 02:10 PM GMT – (USD) FOMC
  Member Clarida Speaks
• 03:00 PM GMT – (USD) Fed Chair Powell
  Testifies
• 04:00 PM GMT – (USD) Crude Oil
  Inventories
• 05:00 PM GMT – (CHF) Gov Board
  Member Maechler Speaks
• 09:30 PM GMT – (NZD) Business
  NZ Manufacturing Index

Friday, November 15, 2019  

• 01:30 AM GMT – (AUD) RBA Deputy Gov Debelle Speaks
• 02:45 AM GMT – (CAD) BOC Gov Poloz Speaks
• 01:30 PM GMT – (CAD) Gov Council Member Lane Speaks
• 01:30 PM GMT – (USD) Core Retail Sales m/m
• 01:30 PM GMT – (USD) Retail Sales m/m
• 05:00 PM GMT – (EUR) German Buba President Weidmann Speaks
• &more…

Key
risk events today:

China New Loans; UK Prelim GDP q/q; UK GDP m/m; UK Manufacturing Production m/m; French banks closed in observance of Armistice Day; US banks closed in observance of Veterans Day; Canadian banks closed in observance of Remembrance Day.

EUR/USD:

Weekly gain/loss: -1.31%

Weekly close: 1.1017

Weekly perspective:

Following a short-lived phase of indecision, sellers marched south from the underside of a long-standing resistance area drawn from 1.1119-1.1295 last week, establishing a near-full-bodied bearish candle and recording its worst weekly decline since August. Increased selling this week has the lower boundary of a descending channel to target (extended from the low 1.1109), set a few points north of the 2016 yearly opening level at 1.0873.

Concerning trend direction, the primary downtrend has been in motion since topping in early 2018 at 1.2555.

Daily perspective:

Five successive days of selling, primarily opening by way of a clear-cut bearish engulfing candlestick formation, witnessed the EUR/USD tunnel through prominent support at 1.1072 (now a serving resistance) and the 50-day SMA (blue – 1.1038) last week. Note the 200-day SMA (orange – 1.1186) remains facing a southerly bearing, while the aforementioned 50-day SMA appears to be flattening.

With demand at 1.0851-1.0950 – houses the 2016 yearly opening level mentioned above on the weekly timeframe at 1.0873 – not yet entering the fold, this potentially invites further downside this week.

H4 perspective:

Europe’s single currency charged lower against the buck Friday, erasing more than 32 points, or 0.29%. The US dollar index continued to explore higher ground, reaching highs of 98.40 and registering its fifth consecutive daily gain.

On the data front, US consumer sentiment was nearly identical to last month’s and the average 2019 level, according to the University of Michigan. The headline figure came in at 95.7, missing the expected 95.9, but a rise from the prior 95.5. Politically, however, US President Trump stated he has not yet agreed to roll back tariffs on China, sparking fresh doubts about when the world’s two largest economies will end a 16-month trade war that has slowed global growth.

As underscored in recent technical research, a distinct double-top pattern formed (peaks plotted at 1.1179/1.1175) after breaking the 1.1073 October 24 low (the confirmation point). Some technicians would label the peaks as an ‘eve and eve’ formation, considered to be a higher-probability pattern. The next downside target on this scale can be seen at the 1.10 handle, sited close by September’s opening level at 1.0989 and a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement ratio at 1.0994.

Areas of consideration:

Traders short the H4 double top pattern likely reduced risk to breakeven before the close. The initial take-profit target, as underscored above, is set around the key figure 1.10. Considering its local confluence (sited close by September’s opening level at 1.0989 and a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement ratio at 1.0994), active buying is expected. However, with higher-timeframe structure suggesting a move to as low as the top edge of daily demand plotted at 1.0950 this week, its unlikely the buying will be anything to get excited about.

GBP/USD:

Weekly gain/loss: -1.24%

Weekly close: 1.2772

Weekly perspective:

Shaped by way of a near-full-bodied bearish candle, GBP/USD movement concluded the week closing within striking distance of the 2019 yearly opening level at 1.2739. As evident from the chart (red arrows), the level boasts reasonably significant history, therefore the odds of a rejection forming from here is high. To the upside on this timeframe, traders likely note supply at 1.3472-1.3204 and long-term trend line resistance etched from the high 1.5930.

The immediate trend faces a downward trajectory from 1.4376, with a break of the 1.1904 low (labelled potential support) confirming the larger downtrend from 1.7191.

Daily perspective:

Upside attempts remain capped by a familiar resistance area coming in at 1.3019-1.2975. Failure to engulf this area placed notable support at 1.2769 in sight, which happened to enter the mix at the close of trade Friday. Closely shadowed by the 200-day SMA (orange – 1.2702 [flattening]), the combination of these two supports may be sufficient to attract buyers this week. Another layer of support is visible at 1.2524, which intersects closely with the 50-day SMA (blue – 1.2552 [rising]), in the event we navigate lower ground.

H4 perspective:

Following a brief period of consolidation a few points north of 1.28, likely gathering buy orders, GBP/USD action swung lower and shook hands with an interesting area of support marked in grey. Made up of weekly support at 1.2739 and daily support coming in at 1.2769, as well as a H4 ABCD correction pattern taken from the high 1.3012 (black arrows) and RSI confirmation (hidden bullish divergence within oversold territory – blue line), this area is likely of interest for potential longs today/early this week. What’s also interesting is a number of sell stops were tripped on the break of 1.28, both from traders attempting to fade the figure and those short the breakout, thus potentially providing liquidity to buy.

Areas of consideration:

The highlighted 1.2739/1.2769 area is possibly of interest today as support, and forms as a final take-profit target for shorts from the underside of 1.29 based on Tuesday’s H4 shooting star candlestick pattern (noted in previous reports).

A bounce from 1.2739/1.2769 followed up with a break back above 1.28 on a H4 closing basis could entice buyers into the market. A conservative entry on the close of the breakout candle is then an option, with protective stop-loss orders either plotted beneath 1.2739 or the lower shadow of the breakout candle.

AUD/USD:

Weekly gain/loss: -0.82%

Weekly close: 0.6856

Weekly perspective:

Recent activity on the weekly timeframe witnessed the AUD/USD deliver a two-candle fakeout to the top edge of a 3-month long consolidation zone between 0.6894/0.6677 (light grey). Although likely to encourage further selling over the coming weeks, resistance outside of the said range holds at the 2019 yearly opening level drawn from 0.7042, in the event we push higher.

With a primary downtrend in play since early 2018, breaking higher is likely to be a challenge.

Daily perspective:

In conjunction with weekly analysis, daily swing resistance seen at 0.6910 – coupled with trend line resistance taken from the high 0.7393 – held price action lower last week. Further downside from this point will likely draw in support at 0.6808, aligning closely with the 50-day SMA (blue – 0.6812 ). Note the 200-day SMA (orange – 0.6946) remains pointing south.

H4 perspective:

Friday kicked off defensively after the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) reiterated the board is prepared to ease policy further if needed. This, alongside a robust US dollar and US President Trump stating he has not yet agreed to roll back tariffs on China, added to the downbeat tone throughout the day.  

Traders who read Friday morning’s technical briefing may recall the following piece (slightly adapted):

With buyers and sellers squaring off around the 0.69 region and trend line support-turned resistance (0.6723) this morning, as well as resistance observed on the higher timeframes, technical studies suggest sellers have the upper hand. Should a notable H4 bearish candlestick signal form from 0.69 today, this may encourage a run lower, targeting yesterday’s session low at 0.6861, followed by H4 support coming in at 0.6809/trend line support etched from the low 0.6670.

Denoted by a black arrow, Friday sported an inside candlestick formation prior to the descent and engulfed 0.6861, potentially clearing the path to the H4 trend line support/H4 support combination highlighted above.

Areas of consideration:

From a technical standpoint, additional downside is a possibility this week at least until reaching H4 support at 0.6809 (essentially marking the same base as daily support at 0.6808). Despite this, though, a minor pullback is expected due to the completion of a H4 ABCD correction taken from the high 0.6928 (blue arrows), though is unlikely to breach 0.69.

Those short Friday’s H4 inside candle formation likely reduced risk to breakeven before the close, with eyes on lower levels this week. Traders who missed the move may, assuming a correction based on the H4 ABCD pattern, get a second opportunity to enter short, preferably around the 0.69 region. 

USD/JPY:

Weekly gain/loss: +0.97%

Weekly close: 109.21

Weekly perspective:

USD/JPY bulls entered an offensive phase last week, adding more than 100 points, or 0.97%. While this is likely to enliven momentum-based traders, resistance nears in the form of the 2019 yearly opening level at 109.68 and a 127.2% Fibonacci ext. point at 109.56 (taken from the low 104.44). Also sited close by is trend line resistance extended from the high 114.23.

Daily perspective:

Activity on the daily timeframe holds north of the 200-day SMA (orange – 109.02), which, by and of itself, is considered a bullish indicator. Having noted weekly resistance plotted nearby at 109.68, as well as a daily ascending wedge formation unfolding since early September (104.44/108.47 – red lines), the likelihood of a continuation north, long term that is, is unlikely.

H4 perspective:

Friday saw US President Trump flood the wires, stating he has not yet agreed to roll back tariffs on China. This sparked fresh doubts and marginally weighed on USD/JPY movement.

Technically, trade remains buoyant north of 109 at the moment, though lack of interest beyond 109.50, alongside the relative strength index (RSI) recently exiting overbought territory, may prompt a retest at 109 this week. The next upside hurdle on the H4 timeframe falls in around Quasimodo resistance at 109.74 (not visible on the screen), which coincides closely with weekly resistance mentioned above at 109.68.

Areas of consideration:

While traders will have eyes on 109 as a point of potential support today, in hopes of joining the immediate trend, the fact we came within 8 points of connecting with weekly structure is concerning. Therefore, a cautious stance in regards to longs is recommended this week.

In the event we continue to punch higher from current price and cross swords with H4 Quasimodo resistance at 109.74, selling this market countertrend is an option. Knowing the Quasimodo resistance boasts additional backing from weekly structure is certainly appealing. Given this is a countertrend trade, though, traders may find comfort in waiting for additional H4 bearish candlestick confirmation to form before pulling the trigger. A bearish candlestick signal will not guarantee a winning trade, but it will identify seller intent and provide entry and risk levels to work with.

USD/CAD:

Weekly gain/loss: +0.66%

Weekly close: 1.3225

Weekly perspective:

Price action on the weekly scale continues to exhibit a bullish presence as buyers extend the recovery off trend line support (taken from the low 1.2061) in reasonably strong fashion. Additional upside from this point has tops around 1.3342 in sight, closely followed by the 2017 yearly opening level at 1.3434 and trend line resistance taken from the peak at 1.3661.

Overall, the immediate trend faces north since bottoming in September 2017, though this move could also be considered a deep pullback in a larger downtrend from the 1.4689 peak in early January 2016.

Daily perspective:

A closer reading of price action on the daily timeframe reveals supply at 1.3239-1.3199 came under pressure in the later stages of last week. Further to this, closing above the 50-day SMA (blue – 1.3209) suggests a possible approach towards the 200-day SMA (orange – 1.3274) may come about this week.

H4 perspective:

The combination of dollar strength weighing on the majority of its G10 peers Friday, and less-than-stellar Canadian job’s data, sent the USD/CAD sharply higher. Canadian employment data for October disappointed with the number of jobs in the economy falling by -1.8k, against expectations for a 14.7k rise. Unemployment printed in line with expectations at 5.5%, as did the participation rate at 65.7%.

Finishing 0.39% in the green, H4 price convincingly dethroned 1.32 to the upside and wrapped up within touching distance of October’s opening level at 1.3239. Note this monthly opening level also denotes the top edge of the current daily supply. Beyond 1.3239, limited resistance is visible until reaching 1.33. Supporting 1.33 as a resistance area, we have a potential ABCD correction (black arrows) terminating at 1.3287, a 161.8% Fibonacci ext. point at 1.3314, Quasimodo resistance at 1.3310 and September’s opening level at 1.3314 (green). In addition, the 200-day SMA is seen lurking just south of this zone.

Areas of consideration:

1.3314/1.3287
on the H4 timeframe is certainly an area of resistance to keep an eye on this
week for potential shorts.

More immediate, however, we could witness a retest at 1.32 form as support today/early this week. A long based off this level has the backing of weekly price rallying from its trend line support, and daily price recently crossing above its 50-day SMA. In order to help avoid a whipsaw to November’s opening level at 1.3168, though, traders may opt to wait and see if a H4 bullish candlestick signal forms before pulling the trigger, targeting 1.3239 as the initial upside target.

USD/CHF:

Weekly gain/loss: +1.18%

Weekly close: 0.9970

Weekly perspective:

Supply at 1.0014-0.9892 remains in play, despite recent buying. The beginning of October witnessed a penetration to the outer edge of the supply area’s limit, possibly tripping a portion of buy stops and weakening sellers. An upside move out of the said supply may draw in Quasimodo resistance at 1.0124, while downside has the 2018 yearly opening level at 0.9744 in sight.

According to the primary trend, price also reflects a slightly bullish tone; however, do remain aware we have been rangebound since the later part of 2015 (0.9444/1.0240).

Daily perspective:

Technical research on the daily timeframe reveals price overthrew the 200-day SMA function Friday (orange – 0.9953). While market participants view this as a bullish indicator, a familiar resistance area coming in at 1.0010/0.9986 may hamper upside attempts this week. 

Should further buying persist, however, a move to another layer of resistance drawn from 1.0140/1.0102 may develop. Traders may wish to acknowledge this area also converges with the Quasimodo resistance noted on the weekly timeframe at 1.0124.

H4 perspective:

Broad-based USD strength Friday lifted the H4 candles to October’s opening level at 0.9977, where a modest reaction was observed into the close. Accompanied closely by a Quasimodo resistance level at 0.9991, a H4 ABCD correction (red arrows) at 0.9982 and the 1.0000 figure (parity), we have ourselves a reasonably tight area of resistance to work with today/early this week.

Areas of consideration:

The green area on the H4 scale between 1.0000/0.9977 is likely of interest for shorts. Not only is it positioned within the walls of the current weekly supply, the H4 zone is also glued to the underside of the noted daily resistance area and comes complete with an H4 ABCD correction. A sell from here has the 200-day SMA set as the initial target.

Dow Jones Industrial Average:

Weekly gain/loss: +1.38%

Weekly close: 27647

Weekly perspective:

Longer-term flows on the weekly timeframe pressured through resistance at 27335 last week, reaching fresh all-time highs of 27742. With price closing in reasonably strong fashion, a pullback to 27335 could be in store this week for potential long opportunities. 

Daily perspective:

Technically speaking, there’s little difference between the weekly and daily timeframes this week. Weekly support is also set as a central floor on this scale at 27335.

H4 perspective:

Despite US President Trump sparking fresh doubts about when the world’s two largest economies will end a 16-month trade war, US stocks inched higher Friday. The Dow Jones industrial average added 6.44 points, or 0.02%; the S&P 500 added 7.90 points, or 0.26% and the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 advanced 36.24 points, or 0.44%.

From A technical standpoint, the Dow’s H4 candles remain within the walls of an ascending channel formation taken from a low of 25710 and a high at 26620. A retest of the channel’s support is certainly an option this week, with a break of this barrier portending an approach towards weekly support underscored above at 27335.

Areas of consideration:

In similar fashion to Friday’s technical outlook, the market still likely has eyes on H4 channel support highlighted above. A retest of this line – coupled with a H4 bullish candlestick configuration – is likely sufficient to prompt another run higher. Entry and risk can be calculated according to the H4 candlestick’s parameters, targeting the previous day’s high as the initial take-profit target.

XAU/USD (GOLD):

Weekly gain/loss: -3.65%

Weekly
close: 1458.8

Weekly
perspective:

Gold suffered hefty losses against the dollar in recent trading, feeling its largest decline since November 2016. Erasing more than $55, or 3.65%, and closing in the form of a full-bodied bearish candle, weekly price drove through the lower edge of a support area coming in at 1487.9-1470.2, potentially setting the long-term stage for a move towards two layers of support at 1392.0 and 1417.8.

Daily perspective:

In terms of daily positioning, the candles remain confined within a descending channel formation (taken from the high 1557.1 and a low of 1484.6). Technically, the yellow metal is seen poised to cross swords with a support area pencilled in at 1448.9-1419.9 (aligns closely with a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement ratio at 1448.5). What’s also interesting here is the completion of a potential three-drive pattern around the top edge of the said support zone (black arrows). 

H4 perspective:

With the dollar index closing strongly higher Friday, it was no surprise to see a decline in gold. Retesting the underside of October’s opening level at 1472.8 and following through with a close beneath Quasimodo support at 1464.2 and a trend line support etched from the low 1381.9, the week ended with H4 price retesting the said broken levels as resistance and closing lower. The next port of call in terms of support from here falls in around the 1433.5 neighbourhood (not visible on the screen), sited within the upper boundary of the daily support area mentioned above at 1448.9-1419.9.

Areas of consideration:

Having watched weekly price dethrone a significant support area and daily price exhibit space to press lower to a daily support area at 1448.9-1419.9, selling the H4 rejection candle off the underside of the H4 Quasimodo support-turned resistance at 1464.2 and H4 trend line support-turned resistance could be an option.

With a protective stop-loss order plotted above 1468.2 and an entry at current price, there’s ample room to reduce risk to breakeven before connecting with the first downside target: the top edge of the daily support area at 1448.9.

The
accuracy, completeness and timeliness of the information contained on this site
cannot be guaranteed. IC Markets does not warranty, guarantee or make any
representations, or assume any liability regarding financial results based on
the use of the information in the site.

News,
views, opinions, recommendations and other information obtained from sources
outside of www.icmarkets.com.au, used in this site are believed to be reliable,
but we cannot guarantee their accuracy or completeness. All such information is
subject to change at any time without notice. IC Markets assumes no
responsibility for the content of any linked site.

The
fact that such links may exist does not indicate approval or endorsement of any
material contained on any linked site. IC Markets is not liable for any harm
caused by the transmission, through accessing the services or information on
this site, of a computer virus, or other computer code or programming device
that might be used to access, delete, damage, disable, disrupt or otherwise
impede in any manner, the operation of the site or of any user’s software,
hardware, data or property.

Global Markets:

• Asian Stock Markets : Nikkei up 0.12%, Shanghai Composite up 0.15%, Hang Seng down 0.57%, ASX down 0.04%
• Commodities : Gold at $1469.65 (+0.22%), Silver at $16.97 (-0.22%), Brent Oil at $62.09 (-0.32%), WTI Oil at $56.88 (-0.47%)
• Rates : US 10-year yield at 1.907, UK 10-year yield at 0.764, Germany 10-year yield at -0.250

News & Data:

• (CNY) USD-Denominated Trade Balance 42.8B vs 40.6B expected
• (CNY) Trade Balance 301B vs 287B expected
• (USD) 30-y Bond Auction 2.43|2.2 vs 2.17|2.2 previous
• Japan Sep Wages Rise; Real Pay Positive
• China exports fall again in worst run for three years, but October drop smaller than expected

Markets Update:

Asian stock markets are mixed on Friday despite the overnight gains on Wall Street amid renewed optimism about a U.S.-China trade deal.

A spokesman for the Chinese Commerce Ministry said the U.S. and China have agreed to lift existing tariffs on each other’s goods in phases as part of a phase one trade agreement. However, a report from Reuters said the plan has drawn fierce opposition from many of Trump’s advisers.

The Australian market is declining in choppy trade despite the gains on Wall Street. Weak corporate earnings results dampened sentiment. Mainland Chinese shares rose by the afternoon. The Shanghai composite added 0.2% and the Shenzhen component rose 0.5%. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index, on the other hand, shed 0.6%. In Japan, the Nikkei 225 gained 0.1% as shares of index heavyweight and conglomerate Softbank Group jumped 3%. The Topix index also rose 0.1%.

As investors wound back their buying in safe assets, the 10-year U.S. Treasuries yields jumped to 1.9730% on Thursday to a three-month peak, and last stood at 1.9138%. In the currency market, safe-haven currencies lost some of their edge, though moves were small.

The U.S. dollar index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of its peers, was last at 98.115 after rising from levels below 97.6 seen earlier in the week.

Upcoming Events:

• 01:30 PM GMT – (CAD) Employment Change
• 01:30 PM GMT – (CAD) Unemployment Rate
• 03:00 PM GMT – (USD) Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment
• &more…

Key risk events today:

Canada Employment Change and
Unemployment Rate; US Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment; FOMC Member Williams and Brainard
Speak.

EUR/USD:

The European shared currency traded lower against the buck Thursday, erasing more than 0.15% and recording its fourth successive losing session. The dollar index firmed yesterday, breaching 98.00 to the upside as US Treasury yields rose sharply – 10-year note trades at 1.919% – amid positive US/China trade headlines that triggered safe-haven outflows.

EUR/USD
price action on the H4 scale extended losses south of the 1.11 handle, clocking
lows at 1.1036 – levels not seen since mid-October.

As
underscored in Wednesday’s technical research, a distinct
double-top pattern has formed (peaks plotted at 1.1179/1.1175) after breaking
the 1.1073 October 24 low (the confirmation point). Some technicians would
label the peaks as an ‘eve and eve’ formation, considered to be a
higher-probability pattern. The next downside target on this scale can be seen
at the 1.10 handle, sited close by September’s opening level at 1.0989 and a
61.8% Fibonacci retracement ratio at 1.0994.

On
more of a broader outlook, sellers show promise at the underside of the current
weekly resistance area drawn from 1.1119-1.1295. Further downside from this
point could make a run for the lower limit of the descending channel taken from
the low 1.1109/the 2016 yearly opening level at 1.0873.

Upside
attempts on the daily timeframe remain capped by resistance at 1.1084. Yesterday’s
move, however, drew in the 50-day SMA (blue – 1.1039) which appears to have
begun turning to the upside. Beyond this line, limited support is visible until
crossing paths with familiar demand at 1.0851-1.0950 – houses the 2016 yearly
opening level mentioned above on the weekly timeframe at 1.0873.

Areas of
consideration:

Traders short the H4 double top pattern
likely have their crosshairs firmly fixed on the 50-day SMA today. A break of
this line, according to our technical studies, confirms the downside bias. The initial
take-profit target, as underscored above, is set around the key figure 1.10.
Considering its local confluence (sited close by September’s opening level
at 1.0989 and a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement ratio at 1.0994), active buying
is expected. However, with higher-timeframe structure suggesting a move to as
low as the top edge of daily demand plotted at 1.0950, an intraday bounce is the
expectation.

GBP/USD:

The British pound navigated lower ground
versus the US dollar Thursday, shedding more than 40 points, or 0.33%. The Bank
of England (BoE) left interest rates unchanged at 0.75%, as expected, though policy
makers voted 7-2 to keep borrowing costs on hold this month, with the surprise
dissent prompting a slide in the pound.

Tuesday’s retest at the underside of
1.29 on the H4 timeframe, shaped by way of a shooting star candlestick
formation (considered a bearish signal), shook hands with its initial
take-profit target yesterday: the 1.28 handle. Well done to any readers who managed
to take advantage of this move.

Downside found additional support Wednesday
after the daily channel resistance-turned support (extended from the high
1.2582) gave way, consequently exposing daily support pencilled in at 1.2769,
closely shadowed by the 200-day SMA (orange – 1.2702).

With respect to the weekly timeframe, price
action has entered a somewhat indecisive phase over the past three weeks. A
retest at 1.2739 – the 2019 yearly opening level – or additional upside towards
supply at 1.3472-1.3204/long-term trend line resistance etched from the high
1.5930 is certainly something to keep an eye out for, however. The immediate
trend faces a downward trajectory from 1.4376, with a break of the 1.1904 low
(labelled potential support) confirming the larger downtrend from 1.7191.

Areas of consideration:

With 1.28 recently entering the mix,
short sellers have likely liquidated a large portion of their positions.

Beneath 1.28, shaded in grey, the
1.2739/1.2769 area is possibly of interest today as support (and a final
take-profit target for shorts), made up of weekly and daily supports
highlighted above.

A bounce from 1.2739/1.2769 followed up
with a break back above 1.28 on a H4 closing basis could entice buyers into the
market. Entry on the close of the candle is then an option, with protective
stop-loss orders either plotted beneath 1.2739 or the lower shadow of the
breakout candle.

AUD/USD:

Upbeat trade headlines suggesting the US and China agreed to roll back tariffs at an equally gradual pace as part of the phase-one trade deal witnessed antipodeans gather strength Thursday.

AUD/USD
price action settled a touch beneath the 0.69 handle, capped by a trend line
support-turned resistance extended from the low 0.6723. Pressing higher from
here has tops set around the 0.6928 neighbourhood, followed by H4 resistance
priced in at 0.6957.

More
broadly, however, as highlighted in previous reports, weekly price is seen
toying with the upper edge of its consolidation zone between 0.6894/0.6677
(light grey). Buying could see the 2019 yearly opening level at 0.7042 enter
the fray, though do remain cognisant of the primary downtrend which has
essentially been in play since early 2018.

Before pressing for higher ground on the weekly timeframe, daily traders must contend with a swing resistance plotted at 0.6910, a trend line resistance (extended from the high 0.7393) and a 200-day SMA (orange – 0.6946). The 50-day SMA (blue – 0.6813) currently faces northbound, while the said 200-day SMA still points south. It may also interest some traders that a violation of the 200-day SMA potentially clears the runway for an advance towards Quasimodo resistance at 0.7047, closely followed by another layer of resistance priced in at 0.7062 (set nearby the 2019 yearly opening level on the weekly timeframe at 0.7042).

Areas of consideration:

With buyers and sellers squaring off
around the 0.69 region this morning, technical studies suggest sellers have the
upper hand, in terms of resistance structure on all three timeframes analysed
above. Should a notable H4 bearish candlestick signal form from 0.69 today,
this may encourage a run lower, targeting yesterday’s session low at 0.6861,
followed by H4 support coming in at 0.6809/trend line support etched from the
low 0.6670.

USD/JPY:

In recent sessions, the market witnessed
the US dollar index, or DXY, take to higher ground and puncture its 98.00 band.
Additionally, US Treasury yields bumped higher with the 10-year note trading at
1.919%. In terms of trade headlines, the US and China have reportedly agreed to
roll back tariffs at an equally gradual pace as part of the phase-one trade
deal.

Trade optimism dented demand for safe-haven
assets Thursday, consequently guiding the USD/JPY northbound and breaking the
109 handle to highs of 109.48. The next upside hurdle on the H4 timeframe falls
in around Quasimodo resistance at 109.74 (not visible on the screen).

With the break of 109 to the upside,
along with daily price recently engulfing its 200-day SMA (orange – 109.02),
USD/JPY buyers remain on strong footing. However, considering the weekly timeframe
has yet to conquer the 2019 yearly opening level nearing at 109.68 and a 127.2%
Fibonacci ext. point at 109.56 (taken from the low 104.44), the uptrend may yet
face a potential ceiling.

Areas of consideration:

While a number of traders will have eyes
on 109 as a point of potential support today, the fact we came within 8 points
of connecting with weekly structure is concerning. Therefore, a cautious stance
in regards to longs is recommended today.

In the event we continue to punch higher
from current price and cross swords with H4 Quasimodo resistance at 109.74,
selling this market countertrend is an option. Knowing the Quasimodo resistance
boasts additional backing from weekly structure is certainly appealing. Given
this is a countertrend trade, though, traders may find comfort in waiting for
additional H4 bearish candlestick confirmation to form before pulling the
trigger (entry/risk levels can then be set according to this pattern).

USD/CAD:

USD/CAD movement remains languishing sub
1.32 on the H4 scale, bolstered by a 50.0% retracement ratio at 1.3194,
August’s opening level at 1.3187 and a trend line support-turned resistance
etched from the low 1.3134 (green). A break above here could see a run to
October’s opening level at 1.3239 materialise. With WTI prices gaining traction
following Wednesday’s modest retreat, the commodity-sensitive Canadian dollar remained
resilient against the greenback Thursday.

With respect to higher-timeframe action,
as underlined in previous reports, weekly price exhibits a bullish presence at
the moment as buyers extend last week’s recovery off trend line support
(extended from the low 1.2061) in reasonably strong fashion. Additional upside
from this point has tops around 1.3342 in sight, closely followed by the 2017
yearly opening level at 1.3434 and trend line resistance taken from the peak at
1.3661. The key observation on the daily timeframe is supply at 1.3239-1.3199. Intersecting
with this area is the 50-day SMA (blue – 1.3208), with the 200-day SMA (orange
– 1.3274) positioned a few points above.

Areas of consideration:

The H4 resistance area at 1.32/1.3187 is
still likely eyed by a number of traders for possible shorting opportunities,
as its bolstered by daily supply at 1.3239-1.3199. Downside targets from this
point has the 1.3115 November 5 low in sight, shadowed closely by the 1.31
handle.

USD/CHF:

The safe-haven Swiss franc was a clear
underperformer Thursday amid positive trade headlines between the US and China.

USD/CHF activity added more than 20
points, or 0.23%, drawing the market to highs at 0.9975. H4 structure reveals recent
upside topped just south of an interesting area of resistance (green) between
1.0000 (parity), a Quasimodo resistance at 0.9989 and October’s opening level
at 0.9977. What’s more, the approach is close to completing an ABCD correction
(red arrows) which terminates at 0.9982.

The technical setting on the bigger
picture, nevertheless, has weekly flow trading within the parapets of supply at
1.0014-0.9892. An upside move out of the said supply may draw in Quasimodo
resistance at 1.0124, while downside has the 2018 yearly opening level at
0.9744 in view. According to the primary trend, price reflects a slightly
bullish tone; however, do remain aware we have been rangebound since the later
part of 2015 (0.9444/1.0240).

Daily flow, on the other hand, recently
crossed paths with the 200-day SMA (orange – 0.9953), sited just south of a
resistance area coming in at 1.0010/0.9986. Note the 50-day SMA (blue – 0.9918)
remains supportive.

Areas of consideration:

The green area on the H4 scale between
1.0000/0.9977 is still likely of interest for shorts. Not only is it positioned
within the walls of the current weekly supply, the H4 zone is also glued to the
underside of the noted daily resistance area and comes complete with an H4 ABCD
correction. A sell from here has the 200-day SMA set as the initial target.  

Dow Jones Industrial Average:

Wall Street’s main equity indexes, the
Dow Jones industrial average and the S&P 500, closed at fresh records
Thursday, as investors digested latest headlines surrounding trade between the
US and China over a new agreement to cancel tariffs in stages. The Dow Jones
industrial average added 182.24 points, or 0.66%; the S&P 500 added 8.40
points, or 0.27% and the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 advanced 23.62 points, or 0.29%.

From
A technical standpoint, the Dow’s H4 candles trade within an ascending channel
formation taken from a low of 25710 and a high at 26620. A retest of the
channel’s support is certainly an option today, with a break of this barrier
portending an approach towards weekly support coming in at 27335.

Areas of consideration:

Technically, the market likely has eyes
on H4 channel support highlighted above. A retest of this line – coupled with a
H4 bullish candlestick configuration – is likely sufficient to prompt another
run higher. Entry and risk can be calculated according to the H4 candlestick’s
parameters, targeting the previous day’s high as the initial take-profit
target.

XAU/USD (GOLD):

Safe-haven markets tumbled Thursday in
response to the latest headlines surrounding trade between the US and China.
Down 1.48%, the price of gold fell from a high of 1492.1 to a low at 1460.8,
placing the yellow metal at a weekly loss of nearly 3.00%.

Technically speaking, H4 price shattered
the lower edge of a month-long range between a support area coming in
at 1481.1-1490.2 and a resistance zone at 1519.9-1512.1. Selling also overthrew
nearby support in the form of October’s opening level at 1472.8 and finished
the day mildly paring losses off Quasimodo support pencilled in at 1464.2.

The
story on the higher timeframes, however, reveals daily price respected channel
resistance (extended from the high 1557.1) yesterday and is now poised to
challenge a nearby support area coming in at 1448.9-1419.9 (aligns closely with
a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement ratio at 1448.5). In terms of the weekly
timeframe, buyers struggle to hold the support area at 1487.9-1470.2, with a decisive
push beneath here potentially setting the long-term stage for a move towards two
layers of support at 1392.0 and 1417.8.

Areas
of consideration:

Seeing
weekly price have a hard time at its current support area and daily price
exhibit scope to press lower, buying the reaction off the H4 Quasimodo support
at 1464.2 is chancy and unlikely to breach October’s opening level at 1472.8. A
bearish theme, therefore, would be open should a H4 close form beneath 1464.2,
targeting 1448.9 (the top edge of the daily support area) as the initial
take-profit zone.

The accuracy, completeness and
timeliness of the information contained on this site cannot be guaranteed. IC
Markets does not warranty, guarantee or make any representations, or assume any
liability regarding financial results based on the use of the information in
the site.

News, views, opinions, recommendations
and other information obtained from sources outside of www.icmarkets.com.au,
used in this site are believed to be reliable, but we cannot guarantee their
accuracy or completeness. All such information is subject to change at any time
without notice. IC Markets assumes no responsibility for the content of any
linked site.

The fact that such links may exist does
not indicate approval or endorsement of any material contained on any linked
site. IC Markets is not liable for any harm caused by the transmission, through
accessing the services or information on this site, of a computer virus, or
other computer code or programming device that might be used to access, delete,
damage, disable, disrupt or otherwise impede in any manner, the operation of
the site or of any user’s software, hardware, data or property.