Global Markets:

• Asian Stock Markets : Nikkei down 0.48%, Shanghai Composite up 2.31%, Hang Seng up 5.37%, ASX up 0.33%
• Commodities : Gold at $1757.00 (+0.96%), Silver at $21.32 (+1.92%), Brent Oil at $85.73 (+2.19%), WTI Oil at $78.85 (+2.08%)
• Rates : US 10-year yield at 3.651, UK 10-year yield at 3.088, Germany 10-year yield at 1.880

News & Data:

• (EUR) Spanish Flash CPI y/y 6.80% vs 7.40% expected
• (CHF) GDP q/q 0.20% vs 0.30% expected
• (JPY) Retail Sales y/y 4.30% vs 5.00% expected
• (JPY) Unemployment Rate 2.60% vs 2.50% expected
• (CAD) Current Account -11.1B vs -4.0B expected
• (GBP) CBI Realized Sales -19 vs 2 expected
• (EUR) Private Loans y/y 4.20% vs 4.50% expected
• (EUR) M3 Money Supply y/y 5.10% vs 6.10% expected

Markets Update:

Asian stock markets are trading mostly higher on Tuesday, despite the broadly negative cues from global markets overnight, boosted by Chinese property companies after the securities regulator in China lifted the ban on equity refinancing for listed property firms. Asian markets closed mostly lower on Monday. Meanwhile, the supply chain concerns remain amid growing unrest in China due to widespread protests against the government’s zero-Covid policy that led to lockdowns in several major cities.

The Japanese stock market is modestly lower on Tuesday, extending the losses in the previous two sessions, with the Nikkei 225 falling a tad below the 28,000 mark, following the broadly negative cues from global markets overnight, with the losers led by exporters and technology stocks on supply chain concerns amid growing unrest in China. Stocks in Hong Kong continued to rally to reach session highs as Chinese health authorities encouraged its elderly to get vaccinated.

In the currency market, the U.S. dollar is trading in the higher 138 yen-range on Tuesday. The sudden bout of optimism on China combined with talk of possible output cuts by OPEC+ to help oil prices rally.

Upcoming Events:

• 01:30 PM GMT – (CAD) GDP m/m
• 03:00 PM GMT – (GBP) BOE Gov Bailey Speaks
• 03:00 PM GMT – (USD) CB Consumer Confidence

What happened across the Asia session?

Most major currencies rose briefly against the DXY but consolidated at the interim levels heading into the European session. 

What does it mean for Europe and US Sessions?

Look out for potential reversals across the major currencies if the DXY continues to strengthen. 

The Dollar Index (DXY)

Key news events today

USD CB Consumer Confidence  

What can we expect from DXY today?

The DXY fluctuated strongly overnight as markets returned after the Thanksgiving weekend. Comments from Federal Reserve members provided mixed sentiments as member Bullard stated that the “Fed will have to pursue rate hikes into 2023” whilst member Barkin indicated that he was supportive of a rate path that was “slower, longer but potentially higher.” The DXY currently trades at 106.20 as it reverses from the recent high of 106.65, with further downside potential toward the key support level of 105.40 likely. Alternatively, if the retracement of the DXY ends at the current price level, the DXY could rebound higher to test the 107 round number resistance level. 

Central Bank Notes:

• Federal Reserve hiked rates by 75bps taking interest rates to 4.00%
• Next meeting is on 15 December 2022
• Further rate increases can be anticipated, with rate cuts expected only if Fed Reserve is confident inflation is moving back down to 2%

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bearish

Gold (XAU)

Key news events today

No major news events. 

What can we expect from Gold today?

Gold traded with little volatility despite the overnight fluctuation of the DXY, with the price maintaining around the 1750 price level. Look for a potential breakout on Gold, if the price is able to trade above the 1760 level, with the next key resistance level at 1785. However, for Gold to trade sustainably higher, it is anticipated that the DXY would have to weaken back down to the 105.40 price level. 

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish 

The Euro (EUR)

Key news events today

No major news events. 

What can we expect from EUR today?

Overnight, the EURUSD saw significant volatility as the price fluctuated strongly between the 1.0345 and 1.05 price range. The spike upward was quickly reversed with the EURUSD ending the trading day at the 1.0335 price level. Currently trading at the 1.0380 price level, the EURUSD could continue to trade lower if the DXY strengthens further. However, watch out for price to be supported at the key level of 1.03.  

Central Bank Notes:

• Main Refinancing Rate is currently at 2.00%
• Reference to rate hikes continuing at the next “several” meetings removed
• Next meeting on 15 December 2022

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bearish

The Swiss Franc (CHF)

Key news events today

No major news events. 

What can we expect from CHF today?

Overnight, the USDCHF traded higher to retest the 0.95 resistance area, however, the move higher was unsustained as the price reversed strongly from the resistance level. Currently trading at the 0.9465 price level, the USDCHF could trade lower to test the near term support area of 0.94 and 0.9390. Alternatively, if the DXY continues to strengthen, look for the USDCHF to break above the 0.95 resistance level to signal a continuation of the uptrend, with the next key resistance level at 0.96. 

Central Bank Notes:

• Current policy rate is at 0.50%
• Next meeting on 15 December 2022

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bearish

The Pound (GBP)

Key news events today

No major news events. 

What can we expect from GBP today?

The GBPUSD reversed strongly after rejecting the 1.21 round number resistance level to trade lower toward the 1.1950 support level overnight. Although the GBPUSD retraced to test the 1.20 price level, the current price action signals the potential for further downside. Look for the GBPUSD to break below the 1.1950 price level to signal a continuation of the downtrend, with the next key support level at 1.1860. 

Central Bank Notes:

• Interest rate is currently at 3.00%
• Peak inflation revised to more than 15% in 2023. 
• Next meeting on 15 December 2022

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bearish

The Canadian Dollar (CAD)

Key news events today

CAD GDP m/m 

What can we expect from CAD today?

The USDCAD currently trades at the 1.3435 price level following significant volatility overnight as the price rose strongly to test and reject the round number resistance level of 1.35. With the Canadian GDP due to be released unchanged (Forecast: 0.1% Previous 0.1%) look for the USDCAD to break below the 1.34 price level to signal a continuation of the downtrend with the next key support level at 1.3330. 

Central Bank Notes:

• Increased interest rates to 3.75%  
• Surprised markets with only 50bps hike in October
• Future hikes determined by future inflation data and expectations
• Next meeting on 7 December 2022

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish

Oil

Key news events today

No Major News Events 

What can we expect from Oil today?

As markets continue to anticipate an increase in production levels from the OPEC members, energy prices slid further. WTI reached the 74.00 key support level and Brent traded lower toward the 80.40 price level overnight. However, as the prices retrace, look for the current retracement to complete before a continuation of the downtrend back toward the near-term overnight support levels. 

Next 24 Hours Bias
Weak Bearish

What happened in the US session?

During the US session, the DXY fluctuated strongly between the 105.40 and 106.65 price range. The S&P500 closed lower by 1.54% as covid unrest in China casts more uncertainty. 

What does it mean for the Asia Session?

Look for increased volatility with the major currencies to gain against the Greenback as the DXY reverses from the overnight high. 

The Dollar Index (DXY)

Key news events today

USD CB Consumer Confidence  

What can we expect from DXY today?

The DXY fluctuated strongly overnight as markets returned after the Thanksgiving weekend. Comments from Federal Reserve members provided mixed sentiments as member Bullard stated that the “Fed will have to pursue rate hikes into 2023” whilst member Barkin indicated that he was supportive of a rate path that was “slower, longer but potentially higher.” The DXY currently trades at 106.20 as it reverses from the recent high of 106.65, with further downside potential toward the key support level of 105.40 likely. 

Central Bank Notes:

• Federal Reserve hiked rates by 75bps taking interest rates to 4.00%
• Next meeting is on 15 December 2022
• Further rate increases can be anticipated, with rate cuts expected only if Fed Reserve is confident inflation is moving back down to 2%

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bearish 

Gold (XAU)

Key news events today

No major news events. 

What can we expect from Gold today?

Gold traded with little volatility despite the overnight fluctuation of the DXY, with the price maintaining around the 1750 price level. Look for a potential breakout on Gold, if the price is able to trade above the 1760 level, with the next key resistance level at 1785. However, for Gold to trade sustainably higher, it is anticipated that the DXY would have to weaken back down to the 105.40 price level. 

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish 

The Australian Dollar (AUD)

Key news events today

No major news events. 

What can we expect from AUD today?

The AUDUSD had similar price action to the NZDUSD as the price reversed strongly from the 0.67 round number resistance level to trade lower toward the 0.6645 price level due to the brief strengthening of the DXY overnight. As the DXY retraces to the downside, the AUDUSD has rebounded and currently trades higher, back at the 0.67 price level. Look for the price to break above 0.67 to signal a stronger reversal, with the next key resistance level at 0.6780. 

Central Bank Notes:

• Cash rate stands at 2.85% 
• Future rate rises will be determined by data, the outlook for inflation, and the labour market.
• Next meeting on 6 December 2022

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish 

The Kiwi Dollar (NZD)

Key news events today

No major news events. 

What can we expect from NZD today?

The NZDUSD traded significantly lower overnight, reversing from the interim resistance level of 0.6240 to reach a near term low of 0.6160. However, this move lower has been quickly reversed early in the trading session today, as the NZDUSD bounced strongly to the upside, with the current price of 0.6220. Look for the NZDUSD to continue trading higher if the DXY continues to weaken with the next key resistance at 0.6290. 

Central Bank Notes:

• Cash rate stands at 4.25% 
• Central bank is likely to continue with the current path of rate adjustment
• Next meeting is on 21 February 2023

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish

The Japanese Yen (JPY)

Key news events today

No major news events. 

What can we expect from JPY today?

The USDJPY traded lower overnight, reaching the 137.50 price level before retracing back toward the 139 level again. This fluctuation was due to the volatility in the DXY. As the price rejects the 139 round number resistance level, price action on the USDJPY signals the potential for further downside. Look for the USDJPY to break below 138 to trade lower toward the 137.50 interim support, with the next key support level at 134. 

Central Bank Notes:

• Cash rate stands at -0.1%  
• Expects Short- And Long-Term Policy Rates To Remain At ‘Present Or Lower’ Levels
• Next meeting is on 20 December  2022

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bullish

USD/JPY:

The current general bias for USDJPY on the H4 chart is bearish. To add confluence to this, the price is under the Ichimoku cloud which indicates a bearish market. If the bearish momentum continues, expect USDJPY to head towards the 1st support line at 138.091, where the –27.2% Fibonacci expansion line is located. In an alternative scenario, price could go up to retest the 1st resistance line at 140.356, where the -61.8% Fibonacci expansion line and previous low are located.

Areas of consideration:

• H4 time frame, 1st resistance at 140.356
• H4 time frame, 1st support at 138.091

DXY:

On the H4 chart, the overall bias for DXY is bearish. To add confluence to this, the price is crossing below the Ichimoku cloud which indicates a bearish market. If this bearish momentum continues, expect the price to break the 1st support line at 106.396 where the 38.2% Fibonacci line is located, before heading towards the 2nd support at 104.815, where the previous swing low is. In an alternative scenario, price could head back up and retest the 1st resistance line resistance at 107.682, where the previous swing low lies.

Areas of consideration:

• H4 time frame, 1st resistance at 107.682
• H4 time frame, 1st support at 106.396
• H4 time frame, 2nd support at 104.815

EUR/USD:

Looking at the H4 chart, my overall bias for EURUSD is bullish due to the current price being above the Ichimoku cloud, indicating a bullish market. To add confluence to this bias, price has also broken above the ascending trend line. If this bullish momentum continues, expect the price to possibly head towards the 1st resistance at 1.04818, where the previous swing high is located. In an alternate scenario, price could possibly head back down towards the 1st support level at 1.02766, where the 23.6% Fibonacci line is located, before heading towards the 2nd support at 1.00937, where the 50% Fibonacci line is.

Areas of consideration :

• H4 1st resistance at 1.04818
• H4 1st support at 1.02766
• H4 2nd support at 1.0093

GBP/USD:

Looking at the H4 chart, my overall bias for GBPUSD is bullish due to the current price being above the Ichimoku cloud, indicating a bullish market. Expecting price to possibly head towards the 1st resistance line at 1.22770, where the previous swing high is. In an alternative scenario, price could possibly head back down to retest the 1st support line at 1.19008, where the 78.6% Fibonacci line is.

Areas of consideration:

• H4   1st resistance at 1.22770
• H4  1st support at 1.19008

USD/CHF:

The overall bias for USDCHF on the H4 chart is bearish. In addition, the price is crossing below the Ichimoku cloud, indicating a bearish market. If the current bearish trend continues, expect price to continue heading towards the 1st support line at 0.93706, where the previous swing low is. In an alternate scenario, price could rise towards the  1st resistance line at 0.94810, where the 78.6% Fibonacci line is, before heading towards the 2nd resistance at 0.95986, where the previous swing high is.

Areas of consideration

• H4 1st support at  0.93706
• H4 1st resistance at 0.94810
• H4 2nd resistance at 0.95986

XAU/USD (GOLD):

Looking at the H4 chart, my overall bias for XAUUSD is bullish due to the current price crossing above the Ichimoku cloud, indicating a bullish market. If this bullish momentum continues, expect the price to possibly head back up towards the 1st resistance at 1765.050, where the 78.6% Fibonacci line is located.  In an alternate scenario, price could possibly head back down towards the 1st support level at 1727.850, where the 38.2% and 61.8% Fibonacci lines are located.

Areas of consideration: 

• H4 time frame, 1st resistance at 1765.483
• H4 time frame, 1st support at 1727.850

AUD/USD:

Looking at the H4 chart, my overall bias for ADUSD is bullish due to the current price being above the Ichimoku cloud, indicating a bullish market. Expecting price to continue heading towards the 1st resistance at 0.67711 where the 61.8% Fibonacci line is. If this 1st resistance line is broken, expect the price to head towards the 2nd resistance at 0.69161, where the previous swing high is. In an alternative scenario, price could possibly head back down to retest the 1st support line at 0.65849 where the 38.2% Fibonacci line is. 

Areas of consideration 

• H4,  1st resistance at 0.67711
• H4,  2nd resistance at 0.69161
• H4, 1st support at 0.65849

NZD/USD:

On the H4 chart, we have a bullish bias with the price moving above the Ichimoku cloud and has broken out of the ascending channel. If this bullish momentum continues, expect the price to continue heading towards the 1st resistance line at 0.62044, slightly below where the 78.6% Fibonacci line is. Alternatively, the price may head back down and retest the 1st support at 0.60637, where the previous swing low is.

Areas of consideration:

• H4 time frame,  1st resistance at 0.62044
• H4 time frame,  1st support at 0.60637

USD/CAD:

On the H4 chart, the overall bias for USDCAD is nullish . To add confluence to this, the price is above the Ichimoku cloud which indicates a bullish market. If this bullish momentum continues, expect the price to break the 1st resistance line at 1.35029, where the 50% Fibonacci line is located, before heading towards the 2nd resistance at 1.38051, where the previous swing high is. In an alternative scenario, price could head back down to retest the 1st support at 1.33578, where the -27.2% Fibonacci expansion line is.

Areas of consideration:

• H4 time frame,  1st resistance at 1.35029
• H4 time frame,  2nd resistance at 1.38051
• H4 time frame, 1st support at 1.33578

OIL: 

Looking at the H4 chart, my overall bias for BCOUSD is bearish due to the current price being below the Ichimoku cloud, indicating a bearish market. If this bearish momentum continues, expect price to possibly break the 1st support at 83.855, where the previous swing low is located, before heading towards the 2nd support at 82.308, where the 161.8% Fibonacci extension line is. In an alternate scenario, price could possibly head back up to retest the 1st resistance level at 86.921, where the 127.2% Fibonacci extension line is located. If this 1st resistance line is broken, expect the price to head towards the 2nd resistance line at 89.452, where the previous swing low is.

Areas of consideration:

• H4 time frame,  1st resistance at 86.921
• H4 time frame,  2nd resistance at 89.452
• H4 time frame, 1st support at  83.855
• H4 time frame, 2nd support at  82.308

Dow Jones Industrial Average:

On the H4 chart, the overall bias for DJI is bullish. To add confluence to this, the price is above the Ichimoku cloud which indicates a bullish market. If this bullish momentum continues, expect the price to continue heading towards the 1st resistance line at 35492.22, where the previous swing high is. In an alternative scenario, price could head back down breaking the 1st support line at 34106.01, where the previous swing high is before heading towards the 2nd support at 32490.37, where the 61.8% Fibonacci line is.

Areas of consideration:

• H4 time frame, 1st support at 34106.01
• H4 time frame, 2nd support at 32490.37
• H4 time frame, 1st Resistance at 35492.22

DAX:

The H4 chart shows a bullish bias, with price breaking through the descending trendline and rising above the Ichimoku cloud. Price is expected to maintain its bullish momentum and rise to the first resistance level at 14709, where the previous swing high is located. Alternatively, the price could fall to the first support level at 13941, where the previous swing high was.

Areas of consideration:

• H4 time frame, 1st resistance is at 14709
• H4 time frame, 1st support is at 13941

ETHUSD:

Looking at the H4 chart, my overall bias for ETHUSD is bearish due to the current price being below the Ichimoku cloud, indicating a bearish market .If this bearish momentum continues, expect price to possibly head towards the 1st support at 1071.11, where the -previous swing low is  located. In an alternate scenario, price could possibly head back up towards the 1st resistance level at 1291.84, where the 38.2% Fibonacci line  is located.

Areas of consideration:

• H4 time frame, 1st resistance of 1291.84
• H4 time frame, 1st support at 1071.11

BTCUSD:

On the H4 chart, the overall bias for BTCUSD is bearish. To add confluence to this, the price is below the Ichimoku cloud which indicates a bearish market. If this bearish momentum continues, expect the price to head towards the 1st support line at 15632.00, where the previous swing low  is located. In an alternative scenario, price could head back up to retest the 1st resistance line at 17065.00, where the 23.6% Fibonacci line is located.

 Areas of consideration:

• H4 time frame,  1st resistance 17065.00
• H4 time frame,  1st support at 15632.00

S&P 500:

The overall bias for the S&500 on the H4 chart is bullish, with prices above the Ichimoku cloud. If the bullish momentum continues, the price will rise to the first resistance line at 4031.44, where the 61.8% Fibonacci line is located. If the first resistance line is broken, the second resistance line is at 4119.28, which is the previous swing high and the 78.6% Fibonacci line. In an alternate scenario, price could return to the first support line at 3907.07, where the 50% Fibonacci line is located.

Areas of consideration:

• H4 time frame, 1st support at 3907.07
• H4 time frame, 1st resistance at 4031.44
• H4 time frame, 2nd resistance at 4119.28

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What happened across the Asia session?

Most major currencies continued to consolidate as the market heads into the European session. 

What does it mean for Europe and US Sessions?

Look out for potential breakouts amid the consolidation as the market heads into the Europe and US sessions. 

The Dollar Index (DXY)

Key news events today

No major news events. 

What can we expect from DXY today?

The DXY currently trades at 105.93 despite testing a high of 106.30 on Friday. With no major news events for the DXY today, the DXY is likely to continue trading between the price range of 105.65 and 106.30. However, if the DXY resists further downside moves, a stronger rebound could be anticipated, with the next key resistance level at 107.70. 

Central Bank Notes:

• Federal Reserve hiked rates by 75bps taking interest rates to 4.00%
• Next meeting is on 15 December 2022
• Further rate increases can be anticipated, with rate cuts expected only if Fed Reserve is confident inflation is moving back down to 2%

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish 

Gold (XAU)

Key news events today

No major news events. 

What can we expect from Gold today?

As Gold continues to trade along the 1755 price level, the next directional bias is still heavily dependent on the DXY. If the DXY breaks below the current support level, Gold could continue to climb toward 1780 and the 1800 key resistance level. Alternatively, if the DXY has a sustained move upward, Gold could trade lower briefly with 1735 forming a strong support level. 

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish 

The Euro (EUR)

Key news events today

No major news events. 

What can we expect from EUR today?

The EURUSD traded with some volatility on Friday but failed to find a clear directional bias as the price fluctuated between the 1.0375 and 1.0424 price levels. With the price action on the EURUSD showing a potential rejection of the 1.0440 price level, the EURUSD is likely to consolidate below the resistance level with some downside potential. However, with the current uptrend still very strong, look for the EURUSD to test the 1.0350 price level before trading significantly higher again, with the next key resistance level at 1.0590. 

Central Bank Notes:

• Main Refinancing Rate is currently at 2.00%
• Reference to rate hikes continuing at the next “several” meetings removed
• Next meeting on 15 December 2022

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bearish

The Swiss Franc (CHF)

Key news events today

No major news events. 

What can we expect from CHF today?

On Friday, the USDCHF bounced from the 0.9430 price level to test the near term high of the 0.95 price area. However, the move higher was quickly retraced as the USDCHF ended the trading week at the 0.9449 price level. If the DXY continues to strengthen, look for the USDCHF to trade higher with the key resistance at 0.9530. 

Central Bank Notes:

• Current policy rate is at 0.50%
• Next meeting on 15 December 2022

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bearish

The Pound (GBP)

Key news events today

No major news events. 

What can we expect from GBP today?

Despite the recent climb of the GBPUSD, the pound ended with the trading week with little volatility as price consolidated along the 1.21 price level. The GBPUSD could retrace lower if the price closes below the 1.2065 price level, with the next key support level at 1.2020. However, with the strong uptrend of the GBPUSD, if the price breaks above the 1.2150 price level, this would signal a continuation of the uptrend, with the next key resistance level at 1.23. 

Central Bank Notes:

• Interest rate is currently at 3.00%
• Peak inflation revised to more than 15% in 2023. 
• Next meeting on 15 December 2022

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish 

The Canadian Dollar (CAD)

Key news events today

No Major News Events

What can we expect from CAD today?

Similar to the USDCHF, the directional bias of the USDCAD is heavily influenced by the DXY. On Friday, the USDCAD bounced from the 1.3320 price level to trade higher toward the 1.34 price area. The USDCAD is likely to consolidate along the current price level of 1.3375, before retracing slightly lower to the 1.3330 price level. 

Central Bank Notes:

• Increased interest rates to 3.75%  
• Surprised markets with only 50bps hike in October
• Future hikes determined by future inflation data and expectations
• Next meeting on 7 December 2022

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish

Oil

Key news events today

No Major News Events 

What can we expect from Oil today?

On Friday, energy prices continued to trade lower, ending the week at the key support levels. Brent traded down to the 83.80 price level with further downside to the 82.00 price level likely. Similarly, WTI traded lower to reach 76.53 and is likely to test the 75.00 price level. Look out for higher volatility on energy prices this week as the OPEC meeting is due on Thursday. 

Next 24 Hours Bias
Weak Bearish

Global Markets:

• Asian Stock Markets : Nikkei down 0.55%, Shanghai Composite down 1.17%, Hang Seng down 2.14%, ASX down 0.42%
• Commodities : Gold at $1751.05 (-0.17%), Silver at $21.28 (-0.72%), Brent Oil at $81.25 (-2.94%), WTI Oil at $74.00 (-2.99%)
• Rates : US 10-year yield at 3.650, UK 10-year yield at 3.134, Germany 10-year yield at 1.966

News & Data:

• (NZD) Retail Sales q/q 0.40% vs 0.50% expected
• (EUR) German ifo Business Climate 86.3 vs 85 expected

Markets Update:

Asian stock markets are trading mostly lower on Monday, following the mixed cues from Wall Street on Friday, as traders reacted to the growing unrest in China amid the zero-COVID policy with record-high domestic daily Covid-19 cases and the unprecedented COVID restrictions in several cities in China. Traders also again refrained from making significant moves amid a lack of other major triggers, even as they remain optimistic about slower interest rate hikes. A speech by US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell will likely attract attention along with the Fed’s Beige Book as traders look for further clues about the outlook for interest rates.

The Japanese stock market is significantly lower on Monday, extending the losses in the previous session, with the Nikkei 225 falling below the 28,100 level, with weakness across most sectors. The Australian stock market is modestly lower on Monday, giving up some of the gains in the previous four sessions, with the benchmark S&P/ASX 200 staying above the 7,200 level. Hong Kong stocks led losses in a negative Asia-Pacific session on Monday amid unrest in China over its continued zero-Covid policy.

The offshore yuan weakened sharply against the dollar after ending last week around 7.20 per dollar. West Texas Intermediate crude futures, the U.S. benchmark for oil, dipped around 3% to the lowest levels since Dec. 2021.

Upcoming Events:

Monday, November 28, 2022   

• 02:00 PM GMT – (EUR) ECB President Lagarde Speaks
• 05:00 PM GMT – (USD) FOMC Member Bullard Speaks

Tuesday, November 29, 2022   

• 01:30 PM GMT – (CAD) GDP m/m
• 03:00 PM GMT – (GBP) BOE Gov Bailey Speaks
• 03:00 PM GMT – (USD) CB Consumer Confidence

Wednesday, November 30, 2022   

• 10:00 AM GMT – (EUR) CPI Flash Estimate y/y
• 10:00 AM GMT – (EUR) Core CPI Flash Estimate y/y
• 01:15 PM GMT – (USD) ADP Non-Farm Employment Change
• 01:30 PM GMT – (USD) Prelim GDP q/q
• 03:00 PM GMT – (USD) JOLTS Job Openings
• 03:00 PM GMT – (USD) Pending Home Sales m/m
• 06:30 PM GMT – (USD) Fed Chair Powell Speaks

Thursday, December 01, 2022   

• 07:30 AM GMT – (CHF) CPI m/m
• 01:30 PM GMT – (JPY) BOJ Gov Kuroda Speaks
• 01:30 PM GMT – (USD) Core PCE Price Index m/m
• 01:30 PM GMT – (USD) Unemployment Claims
• 03:00 PM GMT – (USD) ISM Manufacturing PMI

Friday, December 02, 2022   

• 02:40 AM GMT – (AUD) RBA Gov Lowe Speaks
• 02:40 AM GMT – (EUR) ECB President Lagarde Speaks
• 04:30 AM GMT – (NZD) RBNZ Gov Orr Speaks
• 01:30 PM GMT – (CAD) Employment Change
• 01:30 PM GMT – (CAD) Unemployment Rate
• 01:30 PM GMT – (USD) Average Hourly Earnings m/m
• 01:30 PM GMT – (USD) Non-Farm Employment Change
• 01:30 PM GMT – (USD) Unemployment Rate

USD/JPY:

The current general bias for USDJPY on the H4 chart is bearish. To add confluence to this, the price is under the Ichimoku cloud which indicates a bearish market. If the bearish momentum continues, expect USDJPY to head towards the 1st support line at 138.091, where the –27.2% Fibonacci expansion line is located. In an alternative scenario, price could go up to retest the 1st resistance line at 140.356, where the -61.8% Fibonacci expansion line and previous low are located.

Areas of consideration:

• H4 time frame, 1st resistance at 140.356
• H4 time frame, 1st support at 138.091

DXY:

On the H4 chart, the overall bias for DXY is bearish. To add confluence to this, the price is crossing below the Ichimoku cloud which indicates a bearish market. If this bearish momentum continues, expect the price to head towards the 1st support line at 104.815 where the previous low and the 0% Fibonacci line are located. In an alternative scenario, price could head back up and retest the 1st resistance line at 106.396 where the 38.2% fibonacci line is located. If the 1st resistance is broken, the next area where price can reach is the 2nd resistance at 107.682, where the previous swing low lies.

Areas of consideration:

• H4 time frame, 1st resistance at 106.396
• H4 time frame, 2nd resistance at 107.682
• H4 time frame, 1st support at 104.815

EUR/USD:

Looking at the H4 chart, my overall bias for EURUSD is bullish due to the current price being above the Ichimoku cloud, indicating a bullish market. To add confluence to this bias, price has also broken above the ascending trend line. If this bullish momentum continues, expect the price to possibly head towards the 1st resistance at 1.04818, where the previous swing high is located. In an alternate scenario, price could possibly head back down towards the 1st support level at 1.03686, where the previous swing high is located, before heading towards the 2nd support at 1.00937, where the 50% Fibonacci line is.

Areas of consideration :

• H4 1st resistance at 1.04818
• H4 1st support at 1.03686
• H4 2nd support at 1.00937
  `

GBP/USD:

Looking at the H4 chart, my overall bias for GBPUSD is bullish due to the current price being above the Ichimoku cloud, indicating a bullish market. Expecting price to possibly head towards the 1st resistance line at 1.22770, where the previous swing high is. In an alternative scenario, price could possibly head back down to retest the 1st support line at 1.19008, where the 78.6% Fibonacci line is.

Areas of consideration:

• H4   1st resistance at 1.22770
• H4  1st support at 1.19008

USD/CHF:

The overall bias for USDCHF on the H4 chart is bearish. In addition, the price is crossing below the Ichimoku cloud, indicating a bearish market. If the current bearish trend continues, expect price to continue heading towards the 1st support line at 0.93706, where the previous swing low is. In an alternate scenario, price could rise towards the  1st resistance line at 0.94810, where the 78.6% Fibonacci line is, before heading towards the 2nd resistance at 0.95986, where the previous swing high is.

Areas of consideration

• H4 1st support at  0.93706
• H4 1st resistance at 0.94810
• H4 2nd resistance at 0.95986

XAU/USD (GOLD):

Looking at the H4 chart, my overall bias for XAUUSD is bullish due to the current price crossing above the Ichimoku cloud, indicating a bullish market. If this bullish momentum continues, expect the price to possibly head back up towards the 1st resistance at 1765.050, where the 78.6% Fibonacci line is located.  In an alternate scenario, price could possibly head back down towards the 1st support level at 1727.850, where the 38.2% and 61.8% Fibonacci lines are located.

Areas of consideration: 

• H4 time frame, 1st resistance at 1765.483
• H4 time frame, 1st support at 1727.850

AUD/USD:

Looking at the H4 chart, my overall bias for ADUSD is bullish due to the current price being above the Ichimoku cloud, indicating a bullish market. Expecting price to continue heading towards the 1st resistance at 0.67711 where the 61.8% Fibonacci line is. If this 1st resistance line is broken, expect the price to head towards the 2nd resistance at 0.69161, where the previous swing high is. In an alternative scenario, price could possibly head back down to retest the 1st support line at 0.65849 where the 38.2% Fibonacci line is. 

Areas of consideration 

• H4,  1st resistance at 0.67711
• H4,  2nd resistance at 0.69161
• H4, 1st support at 0.65849

NZD/USD:

On the H4 chart, we have a bullish bias with the price moving above the Ichimoku cloud and has broken out of the ascending channel. If this bullish momentum continues, expect the price to continue heading towards the 1st resistance line at  0.63525, where the 88% Fibonacci line is. Alternatively, the price may head back down and retest the 1st support at 0.62044, slightly below where the 78.6% Fibonacci line is.

Areas of consideration:

• H4 time frame,  1st resistance at 0.63525
• H4 time frame,  1st support at 0.62044

USD/CAD:

On the H4 chart, the overall bias for USDCAD is bearish. To add confluence to this, the price is crossing below the Ichimoku cloud which indicates a bearish market. If this bearish momentum continues, expect the price to continue heading towards the 1st support line at 1.33578, where the -27.2% Fibonacci expansion line and 141.4% Fibonacci line is. In an alternative scenario, price could head back up to retest the 1st resistance line at 1.34675, where the 50% Fibonacci line and 78.6% Fibonacci projection line are located.

Areas of consideration:

• H4 time frame,  1st resistance at 1.34675
• H4 time frame, 1st support at 1.33578

OIL: 

Looking at the H4 chart, my overall bias for BCOUSD is bearish due to the current price being below the Ichimoku cloud, indicating a bearish market. If this bearish momentum continues, expect price to possibly break the 1st support at 83.855, where the previous swing low is located, before heading towards the 2nd support at 82.308, where the 161.8% Fibonacci extension line is. In an alternate scenario, price could possibly head back up to retest the 1st resistance level at 86.921, where the 127.2% Fibonacci extension line is located. If this 1st resistance line is broken, expect the price to head towards the 2nd resistance line at 89.452, where the previous swing low is.

Areas of consideration:

• H4 time frame,  1st resistance at 86.921
• H4 time frame,  2nd resistance at 89.452
• H4 time frame, 1st support at  83.855
• H4 time frame, 2nd support at  82.308

Dow Jones Industrial Average:

On the H4 chart, the overall bias for DJI is bullish. To add confluence to this, the price is above the Ichimoku cloud which indicates a bullish market. If this bullish momentum continues, expect the price to continue heading towards the 1st resistance line at 35492.22, where the previous swing high is. In an alternative scenario, price could head back down breaking the 1st support line at 34106.01, where the previous swing high is before heading towards the 2nd support at 32490.37, where the 61.8% Fibonacci line is.

Areas of consideration:

• H4 time frame, 1st support at 34106.01
• H4 time frame, 2nd support at 32490.37
• H4 time frame, 1st Resistance at 35492.22

DAX:

The H4 chart shows a bullish bias, with price breaking through the descending trendline and rising above the Ichimoku cloud. Price is expected to maintain its bullish momentum and rise to the first resistance level at 14709, where the previous swing high is located. Alternatively, the price could fall to the first support level at 13941, where the previous swing high was.

Areas of consideration:

• H4 time frame, 1st resistance is at 14709
• H4 time frame, 1st support is at 13941

ETHUSD:

Looking at the H4 chart, my overall bias for ETHUSD is bearish due to the current price being below the Ichimoku cloud, indicating a bearish market .If this bearish momentum continues, expect price to possibly head towards the 1st support at 1071.11, where the -previous swing low is  located. In an alternate scenario, price could possibly head back up towards the 1st resistance level at 1291.84, where the 38.2% Fibonacci line  is located.

Areas of consideration:

• H4 time frame, 1st resistance of 1291.84
• H4 time frame, 1st support at 1071.11

BTCUSD:

On the H4 chart, the overall bias for BTCUSD is bearish. To add confluence to this, the price is below the Ichimoku cloud which indicates a bearish market. If this bearish momentum continues, expect the price to head towards the 1st support line at 15632.00, where the previous swing low  is located. In an alternative scenario, price could head back up to retest the 1st resistance line at 17065.00, where the 23.6% Fibonacci line is located.

 Areas of consideration:

• H4 time frame,  1st resistance 17065.00
• H4 time frame,  1st support at 15632.00

S&P 500:

The overall bias for the S&500 on the H4 chart is bullish, with prices above the Ichimoku cloud. If the bullish momentum continues, the price will rise to the first resistance line at 4031.44, where the 61.8% Fibonacci line is located. If the first resistance line is broken, the second resistance line is at 4119.28, which is the previous swing high and the 78.6% Fibonacci line. In an alternate scenario, price could return to the first support line at 3907.07, where the 50% Fibonacci line is located.

Areas of consideration:

• H4 time frame, 1st support at 3907.07
• H4 time frame, 1st resistance at 4031.44
• H4 time frame, 2nd resistance at 4119.28

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What happened in the US session?

Most major currencies traded with low volatility as prices consolidated heading into the Thanksgiving weekend.

What does it mean for the Asia Session?

Look for the major currencies to continue trading in a consolidation in the Asia session, with no major news events on the horizon. 

The Dollar Index (DXY)

Key news events today

No major news events. 

What can we expect from DXY today?

The DXY currently trades at 105.93 despite testing a high of 106.30 on Friday. With no major news events for the DXY today, the DXY is likely to continue trading between the price range of 105.65 and 106.30. However, if the DXY resists further downside moves, a stronger rebound could be anticipated, with the next key resistance level at 107.70. 

Central Bank Notes:

• Federal Reserve hiked rates by 75bps taking interest rates to 4.00%
• Next meeting is on 15 December 2022
• Further rate increases can be anticipated, with rate cuts expected only if Fed Reserve is confident inflation is moving back down to 2%

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish 

Gold (XAU)

Key news events today

No major news events. 

What can we expect from Gold today?

As Gold continues to trade along the 1755 price level, the next directional bias is still heavily dependent on the DXY. If the DXY breaks below the current support level, Gold could continue to climb toward 1780 and the 1800 key resistance level. Alternatively, if the DXY has a sustained move upward, Gold could trade lower briefly with 1735 forming a strong support level. 

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish 

The Australian Dollar (AUD)

Key news events today

No major news events. 

What can we expect from AUD today?

The AUDUSD was trading between the 0.6735 and 0.6780 price level on Friday. Ending the trading week at the 0.6750 price level, price action for the AUDUSD signals resistance to trade to the downside. Look for the AUDUSD to trade higher above the 0.6780 price level to signal a confirmation of the continuation of the uptrend, with the next key resistance level at 0.6950. 

Central Bank Notes:

• Cash rate stands at 2.85% 
• Future rate rises will be determined by data, the outlook for inflation, and the labour market.
• Next meeting on 6 December 2022

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish 

The Kiwi Dollar (NZD)

Key news events today

No major news events. 

What can we expect from NZD today?

Similar to the AUDUSD, the NZDUSD traded in a wide consolidation between the 0.6230 and 0.6270 price range. The NZDUSD ended the trading week at the 0.6243 price level. However, the price action of the NZDUSD deviates from the AUDUSD as it signals a potential rejection of the upside. Look for the NZDUSD to break below the 0.62 price level to signal further downside potential, with the next key support level at 0.6160. 

Central Bank Notes:

• Cash rate stands at 4.25% 
• Central bank is likely to continue with the current path of rate adjustment
• Next meeting is on 21 February 2023

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bearish

The Japanese Yen (JPY)

Key news events today

No major news events. 

What can we expect from JPY today?

The USDJPY bounced from the 138.45 price level on Friday to trade higher toward the 139.60 interim resistance level. Although there are no major news events scheduled, the USDJPY could trade higher from the current price level of 139.12, especially if the price fails to break below 138.50. Look for the the USDJPY to trade higher toward the previous swing high of 142, if the price is able to break strongly above the 139.50 price level. 

Central Bank Notes:

• Cash rate stands at -0.1%  
• Expects Short- And Long-Term Policy Rates To Remain At ‘Present Or Lower’ Levels
• Next meeting is on 20 December  2022

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bearish

Global Markets:

• Asian Stock Markets : Nikkei down 0.35%, Shanghai Composite up 0.40%, Hang Seng down 0.49%, ASX up 0.24%
• Commodities : Gold at $1752.60 (+0.40%), Silver at $21.34 (-0.11%), Brent Oil at $86.06 (+0.84%), WTI Oil at $78.94 (+1.28%)
• Rates : US 10-year yield at 3.683, UK 10-year yield at 3.079, Germany 10-year yield at 1.890

News & Data:

• (NZD) Retail Sales q/q 0.40% vs 0.50% expected
• (EUR) German ifo Business Climate 86.3 vs 85 expected

Markets Update:

Asian stocks slipped on Friday but posted weekly gains on optimism over a less hawkish Fed. A cautious undertone prevailed amid concerns over record-high domestic daily COVID-19 cases in China. 

China’s Shanghai Composite index rose 0.40 percent to 3,101.69 after a choppy session as the country grappled with increasing lockdowns that have fueled frustration among the population. November’s PMI readings, due next week, are set to shine more light on China’s economy, with data from October already painting a sour picture for the fourth quarter. Japan’s Nikkei 225 index fell 0.3% as rising inflation in the country’s capital heralded more economic headwinds for the country. Southeast Asian stock markets were the best performers this week, as traders piled into heavily discounted, high-risk, and high-yield assets.

U.S. markets were closed on Thursday for the Thanksgiving holiday and will close early today. The dollar was set to lose 1% this week, as dovish signals from the Fed spurred bets that U.S. inflation and the Fed’s pace of rate hikes had peaked this year. A falling greenback helped support broader metal markets.

Upcoming Events:

No upcoming events this week