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Tuesday 7th April: Asian markets gain on hopes of virus slowing down.
Tuesday 7th April: Asian markets gain on hopes of virus slowing down.

Tuesday 7th April: Asian markets gain on hopes of virus slowing down.

49716   April 7, 2020 16:09   ICMarkets   Market News  

Global Markets:

  • Asian Stock Markets : Nikkei up 2.01%, Shanghai Composite up 2.05%, Hang Seng up 1.90%, ASX down 0.65%
  • Commodities : Gold at $1704.00 (+0.60%), Silver at $15.68 (+3.37%), Brent Oil at $33.92 (+2.63%), WTI Oil at $27.06 (+3.76%)
  • Rates : US 10-year yield at 0.736, UK 10-year yield at 0.359, Germany 10-year yield at -0.381

News & Data:

  • (AUD) Cash Rate 0.25% vs 0.25% expected
  • (AUD) Trade Balance 4.36B vs 3.75B expected
  • (NZD) NZIER Business Confidence -70 vs -21 previous

Markets Update:

Asian stock markets are mostly higher on Tuesday, extending gains from the previous session amid indications that coronavirus pandemic may be levelling off in New York and receding in European coronavirus hotspots such as Italy and Spain.

The Australian market has pared early gains and is now mixed. Investors now look ahead to the Reserve Bank of Australia’s decision on interest rates after its monetary policy meeting later today.

Mainland Chinese stocks, which returned to trade following a Monday holiday, led gains among the region’s major markets. The Shenzhen composite surged 2.1%. In Japan, the Nikkei 225 and Topix both gained 2.01%. Over in South Korea, the Kospi rose 1.8%.

Oil prices jumped after their Monday drop. The U.S. dollar index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of its peers, was last at 100.205 following an earlier high of 100.79.

Upcoming Events:

  • 08:00 AM GMT – (EUR) Italian Retail Sales m/m
  • All Day – (EUR) Eurogroup Meetings
  • 02:00 PM GMT – (CAD) Ivey PMI
  • 02:00 PM GMT – (USD) JOLTS Job Openings
  • Tentative – (USD) IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism
  • Tentative – (NZD) GDT Price Index
  • 05:01 PM GMT – (USD) 10-y Bond Auction
  • 07:00 PM GMT – (USD) Consumer Credit m/m
  • 11:50 PM GMT – (JPY) Core Machinery Orders m/m
  • 11:50 PM GMT – (JPY) Current Account

Full Article


Tuesday 7th April: DXY Eyes 101.00 After Fourth Successive Daily Gain

Tuesday 7th April: DXY Eyes 101.00 After Fourth Successive Daily Gain

49661   April 7, 2020 09:09   ICMarkets   Market News  

Key risk events today:

Australia Trade Balance; RBA Cash Rate and Rate Statement.

(Previous analysis as well as outside sources – italics).

EUR/USD:

Monday put out a somewhat subdued session, with buyers/sellers feasting on sell-stop liquidity a touch beneath the 1.08 handle while simultaneously establishing minor support off the 161.8% H4 Fibonacci extension point at 1.0786. EUR/USD upside appears capped by intraday resistance off 1.0820. The US dollar index, or DXY, on the other hand, ended mixed vs. major rivals, holding north of 100.00 with eyes remaining on 101.00.

A break south of 1.08 today reveals limited support until reaching the 1.07 handle, sited above a Quasimodo formation at 1.0653.

Weekly flow crossed back through the 2016 yearly opening level at 1.0873 after failing to build on recent gains last week. Chart studies show multi-year lows at 1.0635 as feasible support on the weekly timeframe, followed by the 2017 yearly opening level 1.0515.

The 200-day SMA (orange – 1.1068) delivered a relatively firm ceiling in recent trade, with price movement breaching support at 1.0995, now a serving resistance base. This highlights further loss as a possibility, with the spotlight shining over Quasimodo support drawn from 1.0630 as a logical downside target.

Areas of consideration:

For traders who read Monday’s technical briefing you may recall the following pieces (italics):

The rebound from the 1.08ish neighbourhood is interesting, though could falter in light of the recent close beneath the 2016 yearly opening level on the weekly timeframe at 1.0873. In addition, traders will note the lack of daily support until reaching 1.0630.

On account of the above, a deeper violation of 1.08 is likely on the cards, unlocking the door for bearish scenarios towards 1.07 and H4 Quasimodo support at 1.0653. Conservative traders may seek additional confirmation in the form of a retest setup at the underside of 1.08 before pulling the trigger. This can help avoid whipsaws which are common viewing around psychological levels.

In light of Monday’s lacklustre performance, the outlook for Tuesday remains unchanged.

GBP/USD:

In recent hours, the 1.23 handle welcomed price action which is proving a difficult hurdle to overcome as resistance, following a collapse in the UK construction PMI and UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson remaining hospitalised.

From the weekly timeframe, longer-term flow dipped its toe in waters south of resistance at 1.2369, with the possibility of follow-through moves materialising to support priced in at 1.1904. The next upside target beyond 1.2369, on the other hand, falls in around the 2019 yearly opening level at 1.2739, with a break exposing long-term trend line resistance, taken from the high 1.5930.

The story on the daily timeframe has price action languishing beneath resistance at 1.2524. The 200-day SMA (orange – 1.2652) lurks north of noted resistance, while support resides around the 1.2014 neighbourhood.

Following the formation of a H4 triple-top pattern around 1.2476ish, sited just beneath the 1.25 handle and a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at 1.2520, cable overpowered 1.23 in the early hours of London Friday amid continued demand for the buck, despite dismal US employment data. 

H4 price established support ahead of 1.22 Monday, with the unit shaking hands with 1.23. The break of the lowest trough within the aforementioned triple-top pattern (1.2241) has confirmed  the formation as a potential contender for shorts, with a take-profit target (measured by taking the value between the highest peak to the lowest trough and adding this to the breakout point) set around the key figure 1.20 (black arrows).

Areas of consideration:

In view of a reasonably lacklustre start to the week, Monday’s outlook remains unchanged.

Having noted weekly movement garnering resistance from 1.2369 as well as daily price displaying room to stretch lower to support at 1.2014, the triple-top H4 pattern could complete, given the formation’s take profit target residing a touch beneath daily support at 1.20.

Technically, therefore, traders will likely favour short-selling upside corrections from 1.23 and 1.24, with the latter holding April’s opening level close by at 1.2395.

AUD/USD:

Kicking off the week exhibiting a risk-on tone, AUD/USD gapped north of 0.60 in early trade and crossed swords with 0.61, closely shadowed by April’s opening level at 0.6112. H4 flow identifies possible resistance in the form of a Quasimodo formation around 0.6157, with a break underlining the 0.62 handle. It’s also worth pointing out the strong area of confluence residing around the 0.63 handle (green), comprised of two Fibonacci extension points at 0.6272 and 0.6279 and a 61.8% Fibonacci resistance point at 0.6237.

Further afield, weekly movement recently crossed paths with resistance at 0.6101, aligning closely with a channel support-turned resistance, coming in from the low 0.6744. Support at 0.5743 could eventually be in the offing, a level with history dating as far back as September 1998, whereas a break higher has resistance around the 0.6359ish region.

A closer examination of price action on the daily timeframe has resistance plotted at 0.6301, which converges closely with a 50.0% retracement ratio at 0.6273. Note these barriers are located just north of a channel support-turned resistance, extended from the low 0.6433.

Areas of consideration:

0.61 will likely be interpreted as an area of interest for sellers, knowing the base merges with weekly resistance at 0.6101 and April’s opening level at 0.6112. The flip side to this, of course, is a fakeout above 0.61 towards H4 Quasimodo resistance at 0.6157. This will likely trip buy stops and provide liquidity to short 0.6157. A H4 close sub 0.61 off 0.6157 may, therefore, entice a wave of selling back to 0.60.

USD/JPY:

The Japanese yen was a clear underperformer vs. the buck Monday, as a result of unwinding safe-haven flows due to a clear risk-on environment.

Technical studies moved weekly price through its 2020 yearly opening level at 108.62 in recent trade consequently drawing the 2019 yearly opening level at 109.68 into sight as possible resistance. Lower on the curve, daily price toppled its 200-day SMA at 108.31, potentially providing an early cue we may be headed for 109.68 on the weekly timeframe.

Across the page on the H4 timeframe, intraday action conquered 109 to the upside in early Europe, reaching highs of 109.38, before retesting 109 into the close as support. There’s little (technical) evidence to suggest sellers want to engage, thus a run to 110 is a possibility, placed just above a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at 109.90.

Areas of consideration:

Technical traders will likely be watching price action for signs of buying off 109, likely in the shape of a bullish candlestick formation – think hammer or engulfing pattern – targeting weekly resistance at 109.68, followed by the 110 handle on the H4.

USD/CAD:

The US dollar index concluded Monday mostly unmoved, while WTI crude oil prices plunged sub $26.50/bbl. In addition, the Bank of Canada, in its quarterly Business Outlook Survey, noted business sentiment had softened in most regions even before concerns around COVID‑19 intensified in Canada. Confidence deteriorated the most among firms in energy-producing regions[1].

USD/CAD wrapped up Monday lower, testing 1.41 and April’s opening level at 1.4093 on the H4 scale. This represents the lower boundary of a newly formed range, with an upper base situated around 1.43 and a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at 1.4313. Outside of the current range, 1.44 may offer resistance, while to the downside an interesting area of support resides at 1.3961-1.4020 (upper green zone), made up of a 127.2% Fibonacci extension base at 1.4020, the round number 1.40, a 50.0% retracement at 1.3983 and support coming in at 1.3961.

On a wider perspective, weekly price is seen flirting with channel resistance, extended from the high 1.3661. Buying from this point has January 18th high at 1.4690 (2016) to target, whereas moves lower could draw in support at the 2016 yearly opening level from 1.3814.

A closer reading of price action on the daily timeframe reveals the candles remain somewhat confined between resistance at 1.4292 and support coming in at 1.4000, with the former welcoming more of the action last week. Additional support is seen at 1.3807, in the event we push for lower levels, while a jump higher has eyes for Quasimodo resistance at 1.4606. Pattern traders will also recognise a pennant formation (1.4349/1.4011) having its lower edge tested, generally considered a continuation pattern. However, until this area witnesses a decisive breakout it’s difficult to trade.

Areas of consideration:

Range traders may attempt to engage with the lower boundary of the current H4 consolidation today, though do remain aware this consolidation is in the early stages of forming therefore the likelihood of a whipsaw being seen is certainly there. Waiting for a H4 candlestick pattern to form before engaging can help avoid this.

A break of 1.41 will likely land price back within 1.3961/1.4020, which could offer a ‘floor’, knowing the area also houses daily support at 1.4000.

A breach of 1.43, on the other hand, may look for 1.44 as an upside target.

USD/CHF:

Despite a mixed session for the US dollar index, USD/CHF put in its sixth consecutive daily gain Monday though held at a H4 ABCD bearish completion (black arrows) from 0.9794. Note this formed south of 0.98, shadowed by a 78.6% Fibonacci retracement at 0.9816. What’s also notable is price recently formed an ascending triangle pattern – a breakout can occur to the upside/downside despite often labelled as continuation patterns. Downside targets from 0.98 are the 0.97 handle, followed closely by the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at 0.9684 (a traditional take-profit target out of ABCD formations).

Last week’s movement, as can be seen from the weekly timeframe, marginally crossed above the 2018 yearly opening level at 0.9743. The break potentially shines the spotlight on the 2019 yearly opening level at 0.9838 and trend line resistance, etched from the high 1.0236.

Price action on the daily timeframe is seen closing in on the 200-day SMA (orange – 0.9808), hovering a few points south of resistance at 0.9848 which boasts moderately healthy history as an S/R level. North of here Quasimodo resistance at 0.9978 is in the offing.

Areas of consideration:

A H4 breakout beneath the ascending triangle’s trend line would likely be viewed as a bearish signal, with many likely to execute short entries on the close of the breakout candle. However, a pop higher might be seen to the 200-day SMA (0.9808) before sellers step in.

As stated above, downside targets can be seen at 0.97, followed by the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement ratio at 0.9684.

 

Dow Jones Industrial Average:

US equities surged to three-week highs Monday amid easing coronavirus tolls. The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 1627.46 points, or 7.73%; the S&P 500 also added 175.03 points, or 7.03%, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 concluded higher by 553.55 points, or 7.35%.

Technically we have the H4 candles approaching Quasimodo resistance at 22863, after firming above April’s opening level at 21668. Interestingly, we also have a daily resistance circulating nearby at 23291 and a weekly Quasimodo resistance at 23055 (green area).

Areas of consideration:

H4 Quasimodo resistance at 22863 represents a healthy level, owing to its surrounding higher-timeframe confluence. Therefore, this is likely to be viewed as a key area today, not only for sellers looking to fade recent moves, but also traders seeking to liquidate long positions.

 

XAU/USD (GOLD):

XAU/USD bulls went on the offensive Monday, shrugging off upbeat risk sentiment. Adding more than 2.70%, technicians witnessed H4 price hike through Quasimodo resistance at 1643.1 (now a serving support) and aggressively challenge another layer of Quasimodo resistance at 1667.7, as well as a 161.8% Fibonacci extension at 1664.2. Note also H4 price is currently chalking up a potential shooting star candlestick signal, which typically displays bearish intent.

Further out on the weekly timeframe, we have the current candle a touch off best levels south of resistance at 1681.1, with a break of this base exposing Quasimodo resistance at 1741.9.

The technical story on the daily timeframe had the unit build on recent upside, registering a fourth consecutive daily gain yesterday. As is evident from the chart, price action is retreating a few points beneath weekly resistance at 1681.1, closely followed by daily Quasimodo resistance at 1689.3.

Areas of consideration:

Although we’re not effectively testing weekly resistance at 1681.1, many traders will, however, deem recent moves to be a test of the weekly base, given support and resistance levels are generally considered zones rather than defined price points.

Consequently, in the event we close in the shape of a H4 shooting star candlestick signal off Quasimodo resistance at 1667.7, a run through H4 support at 1643.1 might be in store today, offering traders a possible opportunity to short towards March and April’s opening levels at 1591.7 and 1593.0, respectively.

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[1] https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2020/04/business-outlook-survey-spring-2020/

Full Article

Monday 6th April: Oil drops as OPEC+ meeting scheduled; China off
Monday 6th April: Oil drops as OPEC+ meeting scheduled; China off

Monday 6th April: Oil drops as OPEC+ meeting scheduled; China off

49579   April 6, 2020 16:02   ICMarkets   Market News  

Global Markets:

  • Asian Stock Markets : Nikkei up 4.24%, Hang Seng up 2.04%, ASX up 4.33%
  • Commodities : Gold at $1658.05 (+0.75%), Silver at $14.71 (+1.51%), Brent Oil at $33.82 (-0.85%), WTI Oil at $27.91 (-1.52%)
  • Rates : US 10-year yield at 0.657, UK 10-year yield at 0.343, Germany 10-year yield at -0.409

News & Data:

  • (USD) ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI 52.5 vs 43.5 expected
  • (USD) Unemployment Rate 4.40% vs 3.80% expected
  • (USD) Non-Farm Employment Change -701K vs -100K expected
  • (USD) Average Hourly Earnings m/m 0.40% vs 0.20% expected
  • (GBP) Final Services PMI 34.5 vs 34.7 expected
  • French FinMin Le Maire: EU Fund Needs To Be Hundreds Of Billions Of Euros
  • Russia and Saudi Arabia are ‘very, very close’ to an oil production deal, says Russia’s Dmitriev

CFTC Positioning Data:

  • EUR long 74K vs 61K long last week. Longs increased by 13k
  • GBP long 5K vs 11K long last week. Longs trimmed by 6K
  • JPY long 18K vs 24K long last week. Longs trimmed by 6K
  • CHF long 5K vs 5K long last week. No change in the current week.
  • AUD short 31k vs 25K short last week. Shorts increased by 6K
  • NZD short 16K vs 16K short last week. No change in the current week.
  • CAD short 22k vs 29K short last week. Shorts trimmed by 7K.

Markets Update:

Asian stock markets are mostly higher on Monday despite the negative cues from Wall Street Friday after a report from the U.S. Labor Department showed that employment in the U.S. fell much more than expected in the month of March.

Investor sentiment received a boost amid optimism that the number of coronavirus cases in New York, a U.S. hotspot for the pandemic, may be peaking. New York State reported its first decline in the number of daily coronavirus-related deaths as well as hospitalizations on Sunday. The coronavirus-related death toll in France and Italy has also slowed.

Stocks in Japan were among the biggest gainers of the day, with the Nikkei 225 rising 4.2%. South Korea’s Kospi also advanced 3.9%.Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index edged 2.0%. Shares in Australia also saw substantial gains, with the S&P/ASX 200 closing 4.33% higher.

The U.S. dollar index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of its peers, was last at 100.632 after crossing the 100 level last week. U.S. crude futures had fallen 9% after a scheduled meeting between OPEC and its allies — collectively referred to as OPEC+ — was pushed back, raising fears that a production cut might face challenges.

Upcoming Events:

Monday, April 06, 2020

  • 02:30 PM GMT – (CAD) BOC Business Outlook Survey
  • 10:00 PM GMT – (NZD) NZIER Business Confidence

Tuesday, April 07, 2020

  • 01:30 AM GMT – (AUD) Trade Balance
  • 04:30 AM GMT – (AUD) Cash Rate
  • 04:30 AM GMT – (AUD) RBA Rate Statement

Wednesday, April 08, 2020

  • Tentative – (All) OPEC Meetings
  • Tentative – (All) OPEC-JMMC Meetings
  • Tentative – (USD) FOMC Meeting Minutes

Thursday, April 09, 2020

  • 12:30 AM GMT – (JPY) BOJ Gov Kuroda Speaks
  • 01:30 AM GMT – (AUD) RBA Financial Stability Review
  • 06:00 AM GMT – (GBP) GDP m/m
  • 11:30 AM GMT – (EUR) ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts
  • 12:30 PM GMT – (CAD) Employment Change
  • 12:30 PM GMT – (CAD) Unemployment Rate
  • 12:30 PM GMT – (USD) Unemployment Claims
  • 12:30 PM GMT – (USD) Core PPI m/m
  • 12:30 PM GMT – (USD) PPI m/m
  • 02:00 PM GMT – (USD) Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment

Friday, April 10, 2020

  • 01:30 AM GMT – (CNY) CPI y/y
  • 10th-15th GMT – (CNY) New Loans
  • 12:30 PM GMT – (USD) CPI m/m
  • 12:30 PM GMT – (USD) Core CPI m/m

Full Article


Monday 6th April: Weekly Technical Outlook and Review.

Monday 6th April: Weekly Technical Outlook and Review.

49482   April 4, 2020 22:17   ICMarkets   Market News  

Key risk events today:

OPEC Meetings; BoC Business Outlook Survey.

(Previous analysis as well as outside sources – italics).

EUR/USD:

Weekly gain/loss: -2.93%

Weekly close: 1.0806

Weekly perspective:

Despite an impressive recovery off multi-year lows at 1.0635, price failed to build on recent gains last week. Leaving Quasimodo resistance at 1.1239 and the 2020 yearly opening level at 1.1222 unchallenged, long-term flow made its way back through the 2016 yearly opening level at 1.0873, closing in the form of a near-full bodied bearish candle, potentially setting the stage for a run to 1.0635 this week, followed by the 2017 yearly opening level 1.0515.

Daily perspective:

The 200-day SMA (orange – 1.1071) delivered a relatively firm ceiling at the beginning of the week, breaching support at 1.0995, in spite of price action producing a healthy hammer candlestick pattern (generally considered a bullish signal at troughs) on Tuesday.

Four out of the five trading days formed reasonably dominant bearish candles, with the unit threatening to take a run at Quasimodo support drawn from 1.0630 this week.

H4 perspective:

Friday’s jobs report revealed the US economy lost 701k jobs in March, far exceeding the 100k expectation. The unemployment rate was similarly downbeat, up 4.4% vs. 3.5% the month prior. What’s also notable is the Labour Department has yet to account for the 10 million Americans who filed for unemployment insurance in recent weeks.

Technical chart studies show the US dollar index concluded the week in firm territory, though mildly pared gains at the tail end of the week off 100.85. Still, the benchmark remains resolute north of 100.00, likely to approach 101.00 sometime this week.

As the relative strength index (RSI) shakes hands with oversold ground on EUR/USD, the 161.8% Fibonacci extension point at 1.0786 along with the 1.08 handle elbowed their way into the spotlight towards the closing stages of the week. A break south of this region shows limited support until reaching a Quasimodo formation at 1.0653, sited south of the 1.07 psychological boundary.

Areas of consideration:

The rebound from 1.08ish is interesting, though could falter in light of the recent close, albeit marginal, beneath the 2016 yearly opening level on the weekly timeframe at 1.0873. In addition, traders will note the lack of daily support until reaching 1.0630.

On account of the above, a violation of 1.08 is likely on the cards this week, unlocking the door for bearish scenarios towards 1.07 and H4 Quasimodo support at 1.0653. Conservative traders may seek additional confirmation in the form of a retest setup at the underside of 1.08 before pulling the trigger.

 

GBP/USD:

Weekly gain/loss: -1.49%

Weekly close: 1.2263

Weekly perspective:

Sterling reverted to a mild defensive play over the course of recent movement, a week after a near-7% advance off lows at 1.1409, levels not seen since 1985.

Down more than 180 points, longer-term flow dipped its toe in waters south of resistance at 1.2369, with the possibility of follow-through moves materialising this week to support priced in at 1.1904. The next upside target beyond 1.2369, on the other hand, falls in around the 2019 yearly opening level at 1.2739, with a break exposing long-term trend line resistance, taken from the high 1.5930.

Daily perspective:

Nothing really standout is visible on the daily timeframe as price action spent the majority of the week echoing a muted tone south of resistance at 1.2524 – that is, of course, until Friday’s bearish close of nearly 1%. This follows Thursday’s shooting star candlestick pattern (considered a bearish signal at peaks).

The week’s close may entice further selling this week, leading to support at 1.2014 making an appearance, which, interestingly, was a former Quasimodo formation with the left shoulder derived from August 2019 (black arrow).

H4 perspective:

Following the formation of a triple-top pattern around 1.2476ish, sited just beneath the 1.25 handle and a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at 1.2520, cable overpowered 1.23 in the early hours of London Friday amid continued demand for the buck, despite dismal US employment data.

H4 price established support ahead of 1.22 in US trade, poised to potentially revisit the underside of 1.23 in the early stages of this week. The break of the lowest trough within the aforementioned triple-top pattern (1.2241) has confirmed  the formation as a potential contender for shorts this week, with a take-profit target (measured by taking the value between the highest peak to the lowest trough and adding this to the breakout point) set around the key figure 1.20 (black arrows).

Areas of consideration:

Having noted weekly movement garnering resistance from 1.2369 as well as daily price displaying room to stretch lower to support at 1.2014, the triple-top H4 pattern could complete this week, given the formation’s take profit target resides a touch beneath daily support at 1.20.

Technically, therefore, traders will likely favour short-selling upside corrections this week, from 1.23 and 1.24, with the latter holding April’s opening level close by at 1.2395.

AUD/USD:

Weekly gain/loss: -2.83%

Weekly close: 0.5990

Weekly perspective:

Sellers strengthened their grip over the course of the week, holding the majority of losses into the close. Undermined by the US dollar’s pronounced advance, traders watched long-term flow cross swords with resistance at 0.6101, aligning closely with a channel support-turned resistance, coming in from the low 0.6744.

Paring approximately 40% of the prior week’s gains, support at 0.5743 could be in the offing this week, a level with history dating as far back as September 1998.

Daily perspective:

Leaving resistance at 0.6301 unopposed, Tuesday fashioned an outside bearish day pattern off weekly peaks at 0.6213. This absorbed nearby bids and guided AUD/USD to lows at 0.5980, registering its fourth successive daily decline. Although this may prompt further losses this week, particularly as limited support is visible on the daily timeframe until reaching 0.5654, traders are urged to pencil in channel support-turned resistance, extended from the low 0.6433, closely trailed by the noted resistance at 0.6301 and a 50.0% retracement ratio carved in at 0.6273.

H4 perspective:

Intraday action, based on the H4 timeframe, maintained its offered tone close by weekly lows Friday, unable to glean any respite from less-than-stellar US employment data.

The key figure 0.60 made a showing mid-way through London, but prompted little to the upside. In fact, latest candle action exhibited a relatively strong selling wick, suggesting a move to Quasimodo support at 0.5930 could be in store, closely followed by 0.59.

Areas of consideration:

Although more of a decisive close sub 0.60 is likely needed before traders deem the H4 timeframe fit for bearish themes, the fact we’re coming from weekly resistance at 0.6101/channel support-turned resistance as well as plenty of room seen to manoeuvre lower on the daily timeframe, some traders may seek short sales in early trade this week, targeting the noted H4 support levels.

USD/JPY:

Weekly gain/loss: +0.44%

Weekly close: 108.38

Weekly perspective:

After a pivotal correction off peaks, formed south of Quasimodo resistance at 112.14, submerged the 2019 yearly opening level at 109.68 and the 2020 yearly opening level at 108.62, USD/JPY registered a modest recovery trough off 106.92 last week and is seen retesting the underside of 108.62 into the close.

Sustained downside on this timeframe is free to navigate lower until touching gloves with a familiar area of support coming in at 104.70, while further recovery could see the 2019 yearly opening level at 109.68 re-emerge.

It might also interest some traders to note 104.70 denotes the lower boundary of a multi-month range between Quasimodo resistance mentioned above at 112.14.

Daily perspective:

A closer reading of price action on the daily timeframe recently saw the pair ricochet from support at 106.95 and test its 200-day SMA at 108.31.

Beyond the SMA value, there’s not really much to hang our hat on in terms of nearby resistance, therefore most traders will likely fix their crosshairs on the 2020 yearly opening level at 108.62 sited on the weekly timeframe. Yet, beneath 106.95, support can be found at 105.05, positioned a touch above weekly support at 104.70.

H4 perspective:

Ultimately, the aftermath of Friday’s US employment data provided little impetus as H4 candles hover a few points beneath the upper boundary of a reasonably defined consolidation between 107.13/108.74. Note also the upper edge is bolstered by a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at 108.76 and February’s opening level sited at 108.47.

Inside the walls of the current range we can also see March and April’s opening levels at 107.38 and 107.76, respectively, and the 108 handle.

Outside of the walls, 109 resides close by as resistance along with 107 and 106 as support.

Areas of consideration:

The top edge of the H4 range around 108.74 is likely of interest to sellers today/early week, given it merges nearby a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at 108.76 and February’s opening level at 108.47 on the H4. What’s also notable is the 200-day SMA at 108.30ish and the 2020 yearly opening level at 108.62. Collectively, this is formidable resistance. However, there is a chance traders may witness a fakeout to 109 before sellers step in.

USD/CAD:

Weekly gain/loss: +1.62%

Weekly close: 1.4196

Weekly perspective:

USD/CAD is seen attempting to secure ground above channel resistance, extended from the high 1.3661, despite a sizeable move to the downside in recent trading. Further buying from this point has January 18th high at 1.4690 (2016) to target, whereas moves lower could draw in support at the 2016 yearly opening level from 1.3814.

Daily perspective:

A closer examination of price action on the daily timeframe reveals the candles remain somewhat confined between resistance at 1.4292 and support coming in at 1.4000, with the former welcoming more of the action last week.

Additional support is seen at 1.3807, in the event we push for lower levels, while a jump higher has eyes for Quasimodo resistance at 1.4606.

Pattern traders will also note the possible pennant formation (1.4349/1.4011), generally considered a continuation pattern. However, until this area witnesses a decisive breakout it’s difficult to trade.

H4 perspective:

Since the beginning of the week, H4 price has been involved in the construction of a reasonably well-defined consolidation (yellow) between 1.43 (supported closely by a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at 1.4313) and 1.41 (bolstered closely by April’s opening level at 1.4093).

Outside of the current range, 1.44 may offer resistance, while to the downside an interesting area of support resides at 1.3961-1.4020 (upper green zone), made up of a 127.2% Fibonacci extension base at 1.4020, the round number 1.40, a 50.0% retracement at 1.3983 and support coming in at 1.3961.

Another potential base of support can be seen around 1.3781-1.3841 (lower green), comprised of support at 1.3781, the 1.38 handle, a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at 1.3822 and a 161.8% Fibonacci extension point at 1.3841.

Areas of consideration:

Range traders may attempt to engage between H4 range limits 1.41/43 this week; do remain aware that this consolidation is in the early stages of forming therefore the likelihood of a whipsaw being seen is certainly there. Waiting for a H4 candlestick pattern to form before engaging can help avoid this.

A break of 1.41 will likely land price back within 1.3961/1.4020, which could offer a ‘floor’ this week, knowing the area houses daily support at 1.4000.

A breach of 1.43, on the other hand, may look for 1.44 as an upside target.

USD/CHF:

Weekly gain/loss: +2.63%

Weekly close: 0.9758

Weekly perspective:

A pick up in USD demand lifted USD/CHF northbound last week, resulting in price crossing swords with the 2018 yearly opening level at 0.9743. A break of here shines the spotlight on the 2019 yearly opening level at 0.9838 and trend line resistance, etched from the high 1.0236; a rejection, however, could materialise into a substantial sell-off as the river south, assuming we get past the 2020 yearly opening level at 0.9671, is clear until support at 0.9447.

Daily perspective:

Off support at 0.9542, shaped by way of five consecutive bullish candles, price action is seen fast approaching the 200-day SMA value at 0.9808. North of here has resistance from 0.9848, boasting moderately healthy history as an S/R level, with Quasimodo resistance at 0.9978 in the offing should we press for higher levels this week.

H4 perspective:

Friday, particularly in the early stages of the session, maintained its bid tone as the buck’s demand remained unabated post-US employment.

USD/CHF, however, did pivot lower ahead of the 0.98 handle in the hours leading up to the close, responding to an ABCD bearish completion (black arrows) at 0.9794, with the possibility of further dips to 0.97, shadowed by the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at 0.9684 (a traditional take-profit target out of ABCD formations).

Areas of consideration:

For those who read Friday’s technical briefing you may recall the following piece –

The 0.98 handle on the H4 timeframe, coupled with a potential ABCD bearish correction and a 78.6% Fibonacci retracement at 0.9816, as well as the 200-day SMA value at 0.9808, could collectively send USD/CHF lower if tested today. This would, however, entail whipsawing above weekly resistance at 0.9744, though a 50-point whipsaw is considered reasonably minor on the weekly scale, therefore is certainly a possibility.

Although many may have missed the move lower, likely due to a combination of waiting for at least 0.98 to enter the fold and the fear of holding a position over the weekend, a retest at 0.98ish is still not out of the question in early trade today. This is largely because Friday’s pullback could simply be traders covering long positions into the week’s close.

Therefore, 0.9816/0.9794 remains a valid resistance zone this week.

Dow Jones Industrial Average:

Weekly gain/loss: -2.18%

Weekly close: 21059

Weekly perspective:

Price movement on the weekly timeframe continued to languish beneath Quasimodo support-turned resistance at 23055 last week, following a recent recovery off support at 18364.

Technical structure also notes resistance can be seen at the 2019 yearly opening level from 23313 and also at 23578, whereas Quasimodo support is sited just south of support at 17899.

Daily perspective:

Support at 21045 remains a feature on the daily timeframe right now, but has so far generated little to the upside. A break beneath here could also be considered an early cue we’re headed for weekly support mentioned above at 18364 this week.

H4 perspective:

US equities concluded Friday lower as investors digested dismal US employment figures, echoing the ongoing concerns surrounding the coronavirus pandemic. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 360.91 points, or 1.69%; the S&P 500 also erased 38.25 points, or 1.51%, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 concluded lower by 107.54 points, or 1.41%.

Technicians on the H4 timeframe will note the 127.2% Fibonacci extension at 20647 entered the fold Thursday, which represents the top base of a support area, comprised of support coming in at 20473 and a 50.0% retracement at 20433.

The rebound from 20433/20647 produced a nice-looking bullish outside candlestick formation, though failed to spark moves higher Friday, with price poised to potentially retest 20433/20647 in early trade this week. To the upside, aside from April’s opening level at 21668, tops are sited around 22500, followed by Quasimodo resistance at 22863.

Reinforcing the noted H4 support area is daily support mentioned above at 21045.

Areas of consideration:

Buying from current price, knowing the unit is effectively bolstered by H4 and daily confluence, is still a possibility this week; however, most will likely seek a H4 close north of April’s opening level at 21668 prior to committing.

H4 Quasimodo resistance at 22863 also represents a healthy level this week, owing to daily resistance merging closely at 23291 and weekly resistance at 23055 (H4 green zone). As such, not only does this represent an upside target for the week, it is also considered a considerable reversal zone.

XAU/USD (GOLD):

Weekly gain/loss: -0.60%

Weekly close: 1616.4

Weekly perspective:

Adding nearly $130, demand for the yellow metal intensified in recent weeks, consequently clawing back a large portion of lost ground. Conquering resistance at 1536.9 (now a serving support) and the 2020 yearly opening level at 1517.7, focus has shifted to resistance at 1681.1, with a break exposing Quasimodo resistance at 1741.9.

Daily perspective:

The technical story on the daily timeframe has support lurking around 1550.3, with the said weekly resistance at 1681.1 posted to the upside, followed by daily Quasimodo resistance at 1689.3. Daily price structure also notes a possible ABCD bullish correction that terminates around the said daily support (black arrows), along with the 200-day SMA (orange – 1512.9) seen drifting towards current support.

H4 perspective:

Friday witnessed limited movement, ranging no more than $4.

March and February’s opening levels at 1591.7/1593.0 remain reasonably dominant fixtures on this scale as support, while to the upside a shallow Quasimodo resistance is seen at 1643.1, followed by another layer of Quasimodo resistance at 1667.7.

Areas of consideration:

Off April’s opening level at 1575.8, Thursday’s breakout above 1591.7/1593.0 on the H4 timeframe, coupled with the weekly timeframe showing room for higher prices, may arouse intraday buyer interest, with the majority likely favouring entry on a retest of 1591.7/1593.0, targeting noted H4 Quasimodo resistances.

Conservative traders will likely seek additional confirmation at 1591.7/1593.0 in order to help avoid a potential whipsaw. This could be something as simple as a bullish candlestick pattern, such as a hammer or engulfing formation.

 

The accuracy, completeness and timeliness of the information contained on this site cannot be guaranteed. IC Markets does not warranty, guarantee or make any representations, or assume any liability regarding financial results based on the use of the information in the site.

News, views, opinions, recommendations and other information obtained from sources outside of www.icmarkets.com.au, used in this site are believed to be reliable, but we cannot guarantee their accuracy or completeness. All such information is subject to change at any time without notice. IC Markets assumes no responsibility for the content of any linked site.

The fact that such links may exist does not indicate approval or endorsement of any material contained on any linked site. IC Markets is not liable for any harm caused by the transmission, through accessing the services or information on this site, of a computer virus, or other computer code or programming device that might be used to access, delete, damage, disable, disrupt or otherwise impede in any manner, the operation of the site or of any user’s software, hardware, data or property.

 

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Friday 3rd April: Oil gives up gains; Asian markets lower
Friday 3rd April: Oil gives up gains; Asian markets lower

Friday 3rd April: Oil gives up gains; Asian markets lower

49429   April 3, 2020 17:09   ICMarkets   Market News  

Global Markets:

  • Asian Stock Markets : Nikkei up 0.01%, Shanghai Composite down 0.60%, Hang Seng down 0.51%, ASX down 1.68%
  • Commodities : Gold at $1633.30 (-0.27%), Silver at $14.66 (+0.05%), Brent Oil at $31.15 (+4.04%), WTI Oil at $25.14 (-0.71%)
  • Rates : US 10-year yield at 0.589, UK 10-year yield at 0.307, Germany 10-year yield at -0.457

News & Data:

  • (CNY) Caixin Services PMI 43 vs 39.6 expected
  • (USD) Unemployment Claims 6648K vs 3600K expected
  • (CAD) Trade Balance -1.0B vs -2.3B expected
  • Fed balance sheet increases to record $5.86 trillion
  • Australian budget deficit heading beyond $200 billion

Markets Update:

Asian stock markets are mixed on Friday, with some of the markets paring early gains, as lingering worries about the coronavirus pandemic more than offset the positive sentiment generated by the overnight gains on Wall Street amid the surge in crude oil prices. The total number of global coronavirus cases has crossed one million, while the death toll reached more than 52,000. Crude oil prices tumbled more than 4 percent in Asian trading.

In Japan, the Nikkei 225 traded flat while the Topix index was 0.4% lower. Mainland Chinese stocks were lower by the afternoon, with the Shanghai composite and the Shenzhen composite both shedding 0.6%. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index dipped 0.5%. South Korea’s Kospi also traded flat. Meanwhile, shares in Australia slipped, with the ASX 200 down 1.7%.

On the economic data front, a private survey released Friday showed China’s services sector shrank further in March. The Caixin/Markit services Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for March was at 43 following a record low of 26.5 in February. More evidence of the damage from widespread stay-at-home orders to contain the spread of coronavirus emerged in the United States, with an unprecedented number of workers – 6.6 million – filing jobless claims.

The dollar index has risen 1.97% so far this week, even as extreme tightness for greenback since last month eased. Gold prices rose overnight on the dire U.S. jobless claims figures, intensifying fears of the coming economic slowdown and driving investors toward the safe-haven metal.

Oil prices shed some of their massive gains on Friday, as doubts grew over an oil price deal between Saudi Arabia and Russia that U.S. President Donald Trump said he had brokered

Upcoming Events:

  • 08:30 AM GMT – (GBP) Final Services PMI
  • 12:30 PM GMT – (USD) Average Hourly Earnings m/m
  • 12:30 PM GMT – (USD) Non-Farm Employment Change
  • 12:30 PM GMT – (USD) Unemployment Rate
  • 02:00 PM GMT – (USD) ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI

Full Article


Friday 3rd April: DXY Bid Dominates Ahead of NFP

Friday 3rd April: DXY Bid Dominates Ahead of NFP

49365   April 3, 2020 09:29   ICMarkets   Market News  

Key risk events today:

UK Final Services PMI; US Average Hourly Earnings m/m; US Non-Farm Employment; US Unemployment Rate; US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI.

(Previous analysis as well as outside sources – italics).

EUR/USD:

Although dipping briefly in response to the latest record weekly US claims figure soaring to 6.6 million, the buck quickly rebounded Thursday and has since overthrown 100.00, based on the US dollar index. EUR/USD subsequently tumbled sub 1.09 and tested an interesting area of H4 support (green), comprised of a 161.8% Fibonacci extension point at 1.0786, the round number 1.08, a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at 1.0827 and an AB=CD configuration terminating at 1.0808 (black arrows).

Further afield, weekly flow crossed the 2016 yearly opening level at 1.0873, with eyes now on multi-year lows at 1.0637, followed by the 2017 yearly opening level at 1.0515.

On the daily scale, the recent break of support at 1.0995 potentially lays the foundation for a run back to Quasimodo support at 1.0630, though this entails engulfing the weekly level at 1.0873.

Areas of consideration:

A rebound from the H4 support area highlighted above at 1.0786/1.0827 is considered high probability among price-action traders, with the possibility of revisiting the underside of 1.09. This will likely be bolstered by weekly support at 1.0873, despite the minor whipsaw playing out.

However, with daily price threatening lower levels, conservative traders may still seek additional confirmation out of 1.0786/1.0827 before pulling the trigger.

GBP/USD:

Sterling continued to seesaw around 1.24 on the H4 scale Thursday between 1.2475/1.2347. As a result of yesterday’s lacklustre performance, much of the following piece resembles Wednesday’s technical briefing.

Should 1.24 echo a supportive tone today, traders are urged to key in the 1.25 handle and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement ratio at 1.2520. A violation of this region may also persuade further gains to resistance at 1.2578, taken from July 2019, and the round number 1.26.

Nothing standout is seen in terms of movement on the bigger picture so far this week. Last week’s vigorous climb firmed above weekly resistance at 1.1904 and 1.2369, with the latter currently being retested as support. The next upside target falls in around the 2019 yearly opening level at 1.2739, with a break exposing long-term weekly trend line resistance, taken from the high 1.5930.

After crossing daily resistance at 1.2014 (now a serving support), resistance lies in wait around the 1.2524 neighbourhood, trailed closely by the 200-day SMA (orange – 1.2658). Traders will also note Thursday’s action closed by way of a shooting star candlestick pattern (considered a bearish signal at troughs).

Areas of consideration:

Higher-timeframe projections on the weekly timeframe forecasts additional gains until shaking hands with 1.2739. Daily resistance at 1.2524 may throw a spanner in the works, however.

There’s not much (technical) evidence to suggest we’re heading beneath 1.24, aside from the recently closed daily candle, though for this to be a genuine bearish signal it generally needs to form in an area of space. 1.25 is the more likely destination, owing to its surrounding confluence from a 61.8% H4 Fibonacci ratio at 1.2520 and daily resistance at 1.2524. Therefore, this zone could be an area countertrend traders look to fade, targeting 1.24.

The next port of resistance falls in around the 1.26 handle on the H4 timeframe (another area countertrend traders may lean towards), enhanced by a H4 resistance level plotted at 1.2578, with the possibility of a fakeout seen to the 200-day SMA at 1.2658.

AUD/USD:

Undermined by the US dollar’s pronounced advance Thursday, despite weekly US unemployment claims surging past 6 million, the Australian dollar revisited the underside of 0.61 and registered its third successive close lower. Shaped by way of a doji indecision candle, H4 price bottomed a few points ahead of the key figure 0.60. A violation of 0.60 today could see the candles drawn towards Quasimodo support coming in at 0.5930, closely shadowed by the 0.59 handle.

What’s also notable from a technical perspective on the H4 is 0.63/0.6237, as a potential resistance zone; although unlikely to emerge today, it’s worth noting for the following week. Joining this region is the 0.63 handle, two 161.8% Fibonacci extensions at 0.6279 and 0.6272, a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at 0.6237 and daily resistance at 0.6301 (green). In addition, buy stops above 0.62 will likely provide liquidity to sell into from 0.63/0.6237. The relative strength index (RSI), for those who follow momentum-based indicators, recently crossed beneath 50.00, emphasising a bearish tone.

Continued downside on the daily timeframe has support at 0.5654. Focus however, despite activity extending losses, remains at resistance from 0.6301. Joined closely with a 50.0% retracement ratio carved in at 0.6273 and a channel support-turned resistance, extended from the low 0.6433, this area could be an issue for buyers, in the event we attempt higher ground.

With respect to the weekly timeframe, traders are watching price action shake hands with resistance at 0.6101, which happens to align with a channel support-turned resistance, coming in from the low 0.6744.

Areas of consideration:

The widely watched 0.60 level may offer support today, though buyers may be concerned by the fact the round number, although it is a strong base by and of itself, houses limited confluence as well as recent H4 action demonstrating indecision. Conservative traders, therefore, will likely seek additional confirmation from this neighbourhood.

0.63/0.6237 remains an upside target for any long positions above 0.61.

Further to this, 0.63/0.6237 represents a potential spot to consider bearish setups, in view of supporting structure.

 

USD/JPY:

The aftermath of yesterday’s US unemployment claims data sent USD/JPY to lows at 107.02 in the early hours of US trade. Despite this, leaving 107 unchallenged, USD/JPY reclaimed recently lost ground and shook hands with 108, reinforced by a modest recovery in US equites and the US dollar index firming through 100.00.

North of 108, February’s opening level at 108.47 is in sight, with a breach likely leading the way to 109. A rejection from 108, on the other hand, has March’s opening level at 107.38 to target.

Technical action on the weekly timeframe left Quasimodo resistance at 112.14 unopposed, and pared a large portion of the prior-week’s gains last week, wiping off more than 280 points. Sustained downside on this timeframe is free to navigate lower until touching gloves with a familiar area of support coming in at 104.70, while a recovery could see the 2019 yearly opening level at 109.68 re-emerge. It might also interest some traders to note 104.70 denotes the lower boundary of a multi-month range between Quasimodo resistance mentioned above at 112.14. Current action on the weekly scale, however, emphasises an indecision candle.

A closer reading of price action on the daily timeframe recently saw the pair rebound from support at 106.95, heading for the underside of the 200-day SMA at 108.30.

Areas of consideration:

February’s opening level at 108.47 combined with the 200-day SMA at 108.30 may offer some form of resistance today, should we reach this far north, though the rejection could falter at 108 given weekly price may want higher levels.

USD/CAD:

The combination of the US dollar index rallying through 100.00 to highs at 100.41 and WTI prices reaching highs of $27.32/bbl (as President Trump expects a deal between Saudi and Russia), witnessed USD/CAD form the beginnings of a consolidation between 1.43 and 1.41 on the H4 scale.

1.3961/1.4020 (upper green zone) on the H4, made up of a 127.2% Fibonacci extension base at 1.4020, the round number 1.40, a 50.0% retracement at 1.3983 and support coming in at 1.3961, also likely remains a watched base of support, despite price emphasising a range at the moment. In the event of a break above 1.43, nonetheless, we’re then likely headed for 1.44 and a completion of a H4 AB=CD bearish pattern (black arrows) around 1.4450.

From the weekly timeframe, the unit is seen attempting to secure ground above channel resistance, extended from the high 1.3661, despite a sizeable move to the downside in recent trading. Further buying from this point has January 18th high at 1.4690 (2016) to target, whereas moves lower could draw in support at the 2016 yearly opening level from 1.3814.

A closer examination of price action on the daily timeframe reveals the candles remain confined between resistance at 1.4292 and support coming in at 1.4000. Support is seen at 1.3807, in the event we push lower, while moves to the upside has crosshairs fixed on Quasimodo resistance at 1.4606. Traders will also note Thursday’s movement chalked up a clear-cut indecision candle off 1.4292, bolstering the upper edge of the current H4 range at 1.43.

Areas of consideration:

Range traders may attempt to trade between H4 range limits today; do remain aware that this consolidation is in the early stages of forming therefore the likelihood of a whipsaw being seen is certainly there. Waiting for a H4 candlestick pattern to form before engaging can help avoid this.

A break of 1.41 will likely land price back within 1.3961/1.4020, which could offer a ‘floor’, knowing the area houses daily support at 1.4000.

A breach of 1.43, on the other hand, may look for 1.44 and, as highlighted above, a completion of a H4 AB=CD bearish pattern around 1.4450. A fakeout through 1.44, tripping buy-stop liquidity into 1.4450 (red zone), therefore, could be a scenario worthy of the watchlist, particularly if H4 price action closes in the form of a bearish candlestick signal.

USD/CHF:

A pickup in USD demand Thursday boosted the greenback across the board, extending USD/CHF recovery from lows of 0.9502 to north of 0.97 at 0.9750. Technically, this positions the pair within potential striking distance of 0.98 on the H4, which happens to combine with an ABCD bearish completion (black arrows) at 0.9794 and a 78.6% Fibonacci retracement ratio at 0.9816.

Further out on the bigger picture, weekly price is crossing swords with the 2018 yearly opening level at 0.9744; a break of here shines the spotlight on trend line resistance, etched from the high 1.0236. On the daily timeframe, nevertheless, price action is seen fast approaching the 200-day SMA value at 0.9808, following a stronger-than-expected recovery off support coming in at 0.9542.

Areas of consideration:

The 0.98 handle on the H4 timeframe, coupled with a potential ABCD bearish correction and a 78.6% Fibonacci retracement at 0.9816, as well as the 200-day SMA value at 0.9808, could collectively send USD/CHF lower if tested today. This would, however, entail whipsawing above weekly resistance at 0.9744, though a 50-point whipsaw is considered reasonably minor on the weekly scale, therefore is certainly a possibility.

Dow Jones Industrial Average:

US equities finished Thursday in positive territory, maintained on hopes the oil price war between Russia and Saudi Arabia could soon ease. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rebounded 469.93 points, or 2.24%; the S&P 500 also gained 56.40 points, or 2.28%, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 concluded higher by 149.37 points, or 2.00%.

Technicians on the H4 timeframe will note the 127.2% Fibonacci extension at 20647 entered the fold Thursday, which represents the top base of a support area highlighted in Thursday’s technical briefing, comprised of support coming in at 20473 and a 50.0% retracement at 20433.

The rebound from 20433/20647 produced a nice-looking bullish outside candlestick formation, likely enough to generate interest from candlestick enthusiasts to take things higher from here. Aside from tops sited around 22500, Quasimodo resistance resides at 22863.

Reinforcing the noted H4 support area, we can see daily support also made an appearance at 21045 yesterday, reclaiming at least 50% of Wednesday’s losses. Further out on the weekly timeframe, weekly price continues to languish beneath Quasimodo support-turned resistance at 23055, following last week’s enthusiastic recovery off support at 18364. Weekly price, for those who follow candlestick patterns, will also note an indecisive tone emerging on the weekly timeframe right now.

Areas of consideration:

Continued buying from current price, knowing the unit is effectively bolstered by H4 and daily confluence, is a possibility today, targeting 22500 on the H4, followed by Quasimodo resistance at 22863.

22863 also represents healthy resistance, owing to daily resistance merging closely at 23291 and weekly resistance at 23055 (H4 green zone).

XAU/USD (GOLD):

Despite a brief spell beneath March and February’s opening levels at 1591.7/1593.0 on the H4 scale, Thursday observed a climb in prices, adding nearly $25. In the event we push higher, a shallow Quasimodo resistance resides at 1643.1, followed by another layer of Quasimodo resistance at 1667.7.

Weekly price continues to trade in no man’s land right now with support at 1536.9 eyed to the downside and resistance plotted at 1681.1. The technical story on the daily timeframe, however, has support lurking around 1550.3, with the said weekly resistance posted to the upside, followed by daily Quasimodo resistance at 1689.3. Daily price structure also notes a possible AB=CD bullish correction that terminates around 1542.3 (black arrows).

Areas of consideration:

The breakout above 1591.7/1593.0 on the H4 timeframe has likely aroused intraday buyer interest, with most likely favouring entry on a retest of the said levels, targeting noted H4 Quasimodo resistances. Conservative traders will likely seek additional confirmation at 1591.7/1593.0 in order to help avoid a potential whipsaw. This could be something as simple as a bullish candlestick pattern, such as a hammer or engulfing formation.

The accuracy, completeness and timeliness of the information contained on this site cannot be guaranteed. IC Markets does not warranty, guarantee or make any representations, or assume any liability regarding financial results based on the use of the information in the site.

News, views, opinions, recommendations and other information obtained from sources outside of www.icmarkets.com.au, used in this site are believed to be reliable, but we cannot guarantee their accuracy or completeness. All such information is subject to change at any time without notice. IC Markets assumes no responsibility for the content of any linked site.

The fact that such links may exist does not indicate approval or endorsement of any material contained on any linked site. IC Markets is not liable for any harm caused by the transmission, through accessing the services or information on this site, of a computer virus, or other computer code or programming device that might be used to access, delete, damage, disable, disrupt or otherwise impede in any manner, the operation of the site or of any user’s software, hardware, data or property.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Thursday 2nd April: Asian Markets lower as US posts grim forecast of Corona deaths.
Thursday 2nd April: Asian Markets lower as US posts grim forecast of Corona deaths.

Thursday 2nd April: Asian Markets lower as US posts grim forecast of Corona deaths.

49295   April 2, 2020 16:05   ICMarkets   Market News  

Global Markets:

  • Asian Stock Markets : Nikkei down 1.37%, Shanghai Composite up 1.69%, Hang Seng up 0.29%, ASX down 1.98%
  • Commodities : Gold at $1608.80 (+1.09%), Silver at $14.36 (+2.71%), Brent Oil at $27.29 (+10.31%), WTI Oil at $22.20 (+9.31%)
  • Rates : US 10-year yield at 0.608, UK 10-year yield at 0.324, Germany 10-year yield at -0.446

News & Data:

  • (USD) ISM Manufacturing PMI 49.1 vs 44.9 expected
  • (USD) ADP Non-Farm Employment Change -27K vs -150K expected
  • Chinese County Back Under Lockdown After Coronavirus Cases Re-Emerge
  • Swiss Consumer Price Index in March 2020 Consumer prices increased by 0.1% in March

Markets Update:

Asian stock markets are mixed on Thursday following the overnight sell-off on Wall Street amid worries about the rising death toll and the economic impact from the coronavirus pandemic. White House officials have warned of nearly a quarter million deaths in the U.S. from COVID-19.

The S&P/ASX 200 lost its gains from the last session as it slid 2%. Among the big four banks, National Australia Bank and ANZ Banking are losing more than 5 percent each, while Westpac and Commonwealth Bank are lower by more than 4 percent each.

Mainland Chinese stocks recovered from earlier losses to jump on the day, with the Shanghai composite up 1.7%. Japan’s Nikkei 225 declined 1.4% at the end of its trading day as shares of index heavyweight Fast Retailing slipped 2.4%.

Oil futures bounced after overnight drops, before paring gains slightly since the demand outlook remains weak and storage tanks are quickly filling with an oversupply of crude. In currency markets, safety and liquidity remained in hot demand, with the dollar gaining against the euro and yen and mostly holding ground won overnight against other majors.

Upcoming Events:

  • 12:30 PM GMT – (CAD) Trade Balance
  • 12:30 PM GMT – (USD) Unemployment Claims

Full Article

Australian Daylight Savings: Updated Trading Schedule 2020

Australian Daylight Savings: Updated Trading Schedule 2020

49288   April 2, 2020 15:12   ICMarkets   Market News  

Dear Trader,

Please find our updated Trading schedule as Australia will end Daylight Savings Time on Sunday, 5th April, 2020.

While trading for most products will remain unaffected,  there will be a change in the trading hours of some products.

MT4:

cTrader:

If you have any questions or require any assistance, please contact one of our support team members via Live Chat, email: support@icmarkets.com, or phone +61 (0)2 8014 4280.

Kind regards,

IC Markets

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