Articles

Global Markets:

• Asian Stock Markets : Nikkei down 0.93%, Shanghai Composite up 0.21%, Hang Seng up 0.19%, ASX down 0.37%
• Commodities : Gold at $1809.35 (-2.80%), Silver at $26.93 (-3.16%), Brent Oil at $74.10 (-0.39%), WTI Oil at $71.88 (-0.37%)
• Rates : US 10-year yield at 1.560, UK 10-year yield at 0.808, Germany 10-year yield at -0.175

News & Data:

• (CHF) SNB Policy Rate -0.75% vs -0.75% expected
• (AUD) Unemployment Rate 5.10% vs 5.50% expected
• ECB’s Lane: Will Take A Long Time For Labour Market To Recover
• US housing market is short 5.5 million homes, NAR says

Markets Update:

Asian stock markets are trading mostly lower on Thursday, following the negative cues overnight from Wall Street as the Fed’s latest economic projections now point the first post-pandemic interest rate hike in 2023, well ahead of the projected timeframe. Seven officials expect a rate hike as early as 2022. The markets also remain tense amid the continuing high number of infections in most markets.

Mainland Chinese stocks closed higher. The Shanghai composite gained 0.2% while the Shenzhen component advanced 1.2%. The Japanese stock market is sharply lower on Thursday, extending the losses of the previous session, with the benchmark Nikkei 225 falling below the 29,000 mark. The Australian stock market is slightly lower on Thursday, with the benchmark S&P/ASX 200 staying just below the 7,400 level off all-time highs, as mining, technology and energy stocks fell, offsetting gains in the financial sector.

The U.S. dollar index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of its peers, was at 91.438 as compared with levels below 90.5 seen earlier this week. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell downplayed any risk of an immediate interest rate increase as the central bank handed down the decision on Wednesday. He added that officials had begun a discussion about asset tapering and that two interest rate hikes are expected by the end of 2023.

Upcoming Events:

• 07:30 AM GMT – (CHF) SNB Monetary Policy Assessment
• 07:30 AM GMT – (CHF) SNB Policy Rate
• 08:00 AM GMT – (CHF) SNB Press Conference
• 12:30 PM GMT – (USD) Philly Fed Manufacturing Index
• 12:30 PM GMT – (USD) Unemployment Claims

EUR/USD:

Looking at the weekly chart, we can see that prices have pulled back and there could potentially be further bearish pressure to our 50MA at 1.19396. On the daily chart prices have pulled back and found support at 1.19907, in-line with 200MA and 50% Fibonacci retracement, where there could potentially be a short-term bounce before facing further bearish pressure to retest 1.19396 at weekly 50MA.

On the H4 timeframe, prices have broken down from the descending channel and found support at 1.19907, in-line with 161.8% Fibonacci extension, daily 200MA and 50% Fibonacci retracement. This is the key level to monitor today for a bounce toward our first resistance level at 1.20276, in-line with our 127.2% and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement. The next resistance level will be 1.20664, in-line with 100% Fibonacci extension and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.

If price breaks current level, it could face further bearish pressure to 1.19733, in-line with 161.8% Fibonacci extension and -61.8% Fibonacci retracement. Follow by the next support level at 1.19396, in-line with 161.8% Fibonacci extension, -27.2% Fibonacci retracement and weekly 50MA.

Areas of consideration:

• H4 time frame, support level at 1.19733 and 1.19396
• H4 time frame, resistance level at 1.20276 and 1.20664

GBP/USD:

Looking at the weekly chart, we can see that prices have pulled back to 1.40000 where it could potentially find support and have a short-term bounce. On the daily time frame, prices have broken below 50MA and ascending trendline and found support at 1.4000 where it could potentially find short-term support and a short-term bounce, in-line with our weekly timeframe.

On the H4 timeframe, prices have broken down from the descending trendline where it found support at 1.39727, in-line with 127.2% Fibonacci extension. We are expecting a bounce at this level to our first resistance level at 1.40133, in-line with 78.6% Fibonacci extension and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement. The next level of resistance will be at 1.40459, in-line with 78.6% Fibonacci extension and 50% Fibonacci retracement.

If price continues to face bearish pressure at current price, the first support level will be at 1.39400, in-line with 127.2% & 161.8% Fibonacci extension. The next level of support will be at 1.19145, in-line with 78.6% Fibonacci extension, 50.0% Fibonacci retracement and weekly 20EMA.

Areas of consideration:

• H4 time frame, 39400 and 1.39145 support level
• H4 time frame, 1.40133 and 1.40459 resistance level

AUD/USD:

From the Weekly timeframe, we see price return down towards 0.76073, in line with previous swing low and 78.6% fibonacci retracement. From the daily timeframe, we saw a push down further towards 0.76063, in line with 88.6% fibonacci retracement.

On the H4 timeframe, we see price bounced from 0.76078, in line with weekly and daily support and -27% fibonacci retracement level. Where price may push up towards 0.76608, in line with Daily resistance, 78.6% Fibonacci extension and -27% fibonacci retracement.

Areas of consideration:

• H4 timeframe, price may reverse from 0.76078 towards 0.76608
• Daily and weekly time frames showing slight bearish pressure.

USD/JPY

From the weekly timeframe, prices are facing resistance from horizontal swing high resistance which coincides with 50% Fibonacci retracement and 78.6% Fibonacci extension. Prices seem to be more bullish and might break through the resistance. If price breaks out, next target on the weekly would be the 114.665 level in line with 127.2% Fibonacci retracement. On the daily time frame, prices are holding nicely above the 21 period EMA. Prices are approaching resistance at 110.978 in line with the weekly level. A reversal from that level could mean prices would take support on 108.425 level. A continued push up could mean next target is weekly resistance of 114.665 in line with 100% Fibonacci extension level.

On the H4 timeframe, prices are showing the same picture. Prices are approaching the daily/weekly resistance level of 110.978. A break above the level could see prices pushing up towards 112.148, a short term resistance in line with 161.8% Fibonacci extension. If prices reverses from 110.978, prices will pullback to take support on 109.786 which is in line with ascending trendline support, 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and 100% Fibonacci extension. 34 Period EMA is also below prices, showing a bullish pressure for prices.

Areas of consideration:

• 148 resistance level on the H4 timeframe might be next upside target
• 978 level on every time frame
• 786 support level on the H4 timeframe

USD/CAD:

From the Weekly timeframe, we saw a push towards the 1.22647 level, in line with 100% fibonacci extension and 38.2% fibonacci retracement. If price breaks above this level we may see it test the next level at 1.24126, in line with 61.8% fibonacci retracement and descending trendline resistance. On the daily timeframe, we see price broken above the level of 1.21629, in line with 78.6% fibonacci retracement. Where we saw a push up towards 1.22707, in line with Weekly resistance, 161.8% fibonacci extension and horizontal graphical overlap. The next level of resistance may be found at 1.23225 in line with 161.8% fibonacci retracement and Horizontal graphical overlap.

The H4 timeframe shows price breaking past 1.22234 level, in line with the -27% fibonacci retracement and 1.22707 level, in line with Weekly and Daily resistance. We may see a short-term pullback down towards 1.22234 before a further push up.

Areas of consideration:

• The weekly and daily time frame shows a weak bullish momentum.
• On H4, price may pull back towards 1.22234 from current high.

USD/CHF:

USD/CHF has shown a bounce from the weekly 0.89500 support, in line with 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and 78.6% Fibonacci extension. The daily chart shows that price is now approaching the key daily 0.92300 support-turned-resistance, and has also broken below the ascending trendline support-turned-resistance. The weekly 0.89500 support level is a key level to watch.

On the H4 chart, we can see that price has bounced from the key weekly 0.89500 support level, in line with 61.8% and 127.2% Fibonacci extension, and is now testing the 0.90800 resistance. In this scenario, we could see price reverse below the 0.90800 resistance and drop further from there. A break and close below the key 0.89500 support would see price swing towards the next weekly support. Otherwise, should price break above the 0.90800 resistance, we could see it swing towards the next key resistance level at 0.92300.

Areas of consideration:

• The 0.89500 weekly support is a key intraday level to watch.
• However, should price break above 0.90800, we could see price swing towards the next 0.92300 resistance.

Dow Jones Industrial Average:

On the weekly chart, price is trading sideways. With price holding above the long term moving average, we can expect further bullish pressure above 32765 support. On the daily chart, the price is still holding above the moving average. Buyers may look  to add  their longs to push price higher towards possible target at 35970 resistance.

On the H4, price drifted lower and is coming close to daily support at 33800. We could possibly see more buyers enter with their longs to play a revived bounce towards 35091 resistance. Otherwise, failure to hold above 33800 support will see price drop lower towards 32696 support next. Price is also holding above moving average

Areas of consideration:

• Watch support at 33800 on H4 closely

XAU/USD (GOLD):

On the weekly timeframe, prices are facing bullish pressure and could still see further upside, with 1965 as the weekly resistance target. On the daily, price pulled back lower, and is testing 1815 support, in line with the descending trendline resistance-turned-support. With technical indicators showing room for further bullish momentum, we could see buyers looking to add to their longs above 1815 support and push price towards 1965 resistance.

On the H4, price dropped much lower and towards the 1815 support. With stochastics approaching support where price bounced in the past as well, we see a medium probability bullish scenario where buyers may look to add to their longs with a possible upside target at 1850 resistance, in line with horizontal pullback resistance and 50% Fibonacci retracement. Otherwise, failure to hold above 1815 support could see price swing towards the next key weekly and daily support at 1764.

Areas of consideration:

• 1850 support to watch on H4 timeframe

The accuracy, completeness and timeliness of the information contained on this site cannot be guaranteed. IC Markets does not warranty, guarantee or make any representations, or assume any liability regarding financial results based on the use of the information in the site.

News, views, opinions, recommendations and other information obtained from sources outside of www.icmarkets.com.au, used in this site are believed to be reliable, but we cannot guarantee their accuracy or completeness. All such information is subject to change at any time without notice. IC Markets assumes no responsibility for the content of any linked site.

The fact that such links may exist does not indicate approval or endorsement of any material contained on any linked site. IC Markets is not liable for any harm caused by the transmission, through accessing the services or information on this site, of a computer virus, or other computer code or programming device that might be used to access, delete, damage, disable, disrupt or otherwise impede in any manner, the operation of the site or of any user’s software, hardware, data or property.

EUR/USD:

Looking at the weekly chart, we can see that prices have pulled back and there could potentially be further bearish pressure to our 20 EMA at 1.20600. On the daily chart price bounced off 1.20931, in line with 50 MA and 61.8% on Fibonacci retracement where there could potentially be a short-term bounce before facing further bearish pressure to retest 1.20600 at weekly 20 EMA.

On the H4 timeframe, prices are consolidating in the middle of the descending channel making lower highs and lower lows. Prices pulled back from 1.21311 resistance yesterday, which aligns with 38.2% Fibonacci retracement. There could potentially be further bearish pressure to test 1.20655, in-line with our 27.2% Fibonacci extension, descending trendline support and weekly 20 EMA. This would be the key support level to monitor for today. If price breaks the level there could be further bearish pressure to 1.20110, in-line with our -61.8% and -78.6% Fibonacci extension.

If price rebounce from here, it could face further bearish pressure at 1.21702, in-line with our 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and overlap support-turned-resistance. If the bounce continues, the next level of resistance will be at 1.22180, in-line with our 100%Fibonacci extension and swing high overlap resistance.

Areas of consideration:

• H4 time frame, support level at 1.20655
• H4 time frame, resistance level at 1.21702 and 1.22180

GBP/USD:

Looking at the weekly chart, we can see that prices have pulled back but still above our ascending trend line and support at 1.40000 where we could potentially have pull-back before further upside. On the daily time frame, price rebounded near 1.40265, in-line with Fibonacci retracement and ascending trendline support and 50MA.

On the H4 timeframe, prices are consolidating sideways in the lower end of the descending channel, where it rebounded from 1.40265 on Tuesday, in-line with Fibonacci retracement and ascending trendline support and 50MA. If price breaks this level, the next support will be at 1.40000, in line with 100%, 161.8% Fibonacci extension, 50MA and ascending trendline support from the daily.

If price rebound from here, there could potentially be bearish pressure at 1.41578, in line with 78.6% Fibonacci extension and descending trendline resistance.  If the bounce continues, the next resistance level at 1.42114, in line with 127.2% Fibonacci extension and overlap swing high resistance.

Areas of consideration:

• H4 time frame, 40000 support level
• H4 time frame, 1.41578 and 1.42114 resistance level

AUD/USD:

From the Weekly timeframe, we see price trending sideways where it may return down towards 0.76073, in line with previous swing low and 78.6% fibonacci retracement. From the daily timeframe, we see price breaking beneath the 61.8% fibonacci retracement at 0.76938, where we may see a push down further towards 0.76608, in line with 88.6% fibonacci retracement.

On the H4 timeframe, we see price reversed from 0.77222, in line with 61.8% fibonacci extension, 38.2% fibonacci retracement, and horizontal graphical overlap. From here, we are seeing price move down towards 0.76608 which is in line with 78.6% fibonacci extension, -27% fibonacci retracement, and daily support. Currently price is making a pullback towards the 0.77 major level, in line with 61.8% fibonacci retracement and horizontal graphical overlap. From here, we can consider taking the short in line with our bearish view.

Areas of consideration:

• H4 timeframe, price may reverse from 0.77 towards 0.76608
• Daily and weekly time frames showing slight bearish pressure.

USD/JPY

From the weekly timeframe, prices are facing resistance from horizontal swing high resistance which coincides with 50% Fibonacci retracement and 78.6% Fibonacci extension, taking support from 104.224 level which is in line with 78.6% Fibonacci retracement and 78.6% Fibonacci extension. On the daily time frame, prices are facing support from 108.425 level which coincides with 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and 50% Fibonacci extension. Prices might bounce towards daily resistance level 110.978 in line with 78.6% Fibonacci retracement. Daily EMA is also below prices, showing a bullish pressure for prices.

On the H4 timeframe, prices are bouncing from 109.066 level in line with 100% Fibonacci extension and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement towards daily resistance level 110.978. Otherwise, if prices did not push up further, prices could fall and take support on 108.425  level, in line with daily support level. Indicators on the daily timeframe suggest that the pullback is temporary and there is still a long term bullish pressure for prices. EMA is also below prices, showing a bullish pressure for prices.

Areas of consideration:

• On the H4, prices might push up towards 110.978 daily resistance level
• 066 support level on the H4 timeframe
• 425 support level on the daily timeframe

USD/CAD:

From the Weekly timeframe, we see price pushing higher away from the support level 1.20340, in line with support from 11 may (2015), 61.8% and 161.8% fibonacci extension level, where we may see a push towards the 1.22647 level. On the daily timeframe, we see price broken above the level of 1.21629, in line with 78.6% fibonacci retracement. We may see a push up towards 1.22707, in line with Weekly resistance, 161.8% fibonacci extension and horizontal graphical overlap.

The H4 timeframe shows price approaching the 1.21581 level, in line with 61.8% fibonacci retracement, Daily support and horizontal graphical overlap. From here, we may look for a long position towards 1.22234 level, in line with the -27% fibonacci retracement.

Areas of consideration:

• The weekly and daily time frame shows a weak bullish momentum.
• On H4, price may pull back and bounce from 1.22234 towards 1.21581.

USD/CHF:

USD/CHF is now testing the weekly 0.89500 support, in line with 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and 78.6% Fibonacci extension. The daily chart shows that price is now holding below the key daily 0.92300 support-turned-resistance, and has also broken below the ascending trendline support-turned-resistance. The weekly 0.89500 support level is a key level to watch.

On the H4 chart, we can see that price has bounced from  the key weekly 0.89500 support level, in line with 61.8% and 127.2% Fibonacci extension, and is re-approaching the 0.90800 resistance. We note that Stochastics has reversed from the upper resistance level, showing signs of possible bearish pressure. In this scenario, we could see price reverse below the 0.90800 resistance and drop further from there. A break and close below the key 0.89500 support would see price swing towards the next weekly support.

Areas of consideration:

• The 0.89500 weekly support is a key intraday level to watch.
• Stochastics is showing signs of possible bearish pressure as it has reversed from the upper resistance level.

Dow Jones Industrial Average:

On the weekly chart, price is trading sideways. With price holding above the long term moving average, we can expect further bullish pressure above 32765 support. On the daily chart, price is still holding above the moving average and testing ascending trendline support. Buyers may look  to add  their longs to push price higher towards possible target at 35970 resistance.

On the H4, price drifted lower and is coming close to daily support at 33800. We could possibly see more buyers enter with their longs to play a revived bounce towards 35091 resistance. Otherwise, failure to hold above 33800 support will see price drop lower towards 32696 support next. Price is also holding above moving average

Areas of consideration:

• Watch support at 33800 on H4 closely

XAU/USD (GOLD):

On the weekly timeframe, prices are facing bullish pressure and could still see further upside, with 1965 as the weekly resistance target. On the daily, price pulled back lower, and is testing 1850 support. With technical indicators showing room for further bullish momentum, we could see buyers looking to add to their longs above 1850 support and push price towards 1965 resistance.

On the H4, price dropped lower and is facing bullish pressure above 1850 intraday and daily support. With stochastics reacting above support where price bounced in the past as well, we see a medium probability bullish scenario where buyers may look to add to their longs with a possible upside target at 1903 resistance. Otherwise, failure to hold above 1850 support could see price drop lower towards 1813 daily support instead.

Areas of consideration:

• 1850 support to watch on H4 timeframe

The accuracy, completeness and timeliness of the information contained on this site cannot be guaranteed. IC Markets does not warranty, guarantee or make any representations, or assume any liability regarding financial results based on the use of the information in the site.

News, views, opinions, recommendations and other information obtained from sources outside of www.icmarkets.com.au, used in this site are believed to be reliable, but we cannot guarantee their accuracy or completeness. All such information is subject to change at any time without notice. IC Markets assumes no responsibility for the content of any linked site.

The fact that such links may exist does not indicate approval or endorsement of any material contained on any linked site. IC Markets is not liable for any harm caused by the transmission, through accessing the services or information on this site, of a computer virus, or other computer code or programming device that might be used to access, delete, damage, disable, disrupt or otherwise impede in any manner, the operation of the site or of any user’s software, hardware, data or property.

Dear Trader,

Please find our updated Trading schedule for South Africa’s Youth Day  on Wednesday, 16th June 2021. Times mentioned below are Platform time (GMT +3). 

If you have any questions or require any assistance, please contact one of our support team members via Live Chat, email: support@icmarkets.com, or phone +61 (0)2 8014 4280.

Kind regards,

IC Markets

EUR/USD:

Looking at the weekly chart, we can see that prices have pulled back and there could potentially be further bearish pressure to our 20 EMA at 1.20600. On the daily chart price bounced off 1.20931, in line with 50 MA and 61.8% on Fibonacci retracement where there could potentially be a short-term bounce before facing further bearish pressure to retest 1.20600 at weekly 20 EMA.

On the H4 timeframe, prices are trending near the lower end of the descending channel making lower highs and lower lows. Prices pulled back from 1.21311 resistance yesterday, which aligns with 38.2% Fibonacci retracement. There could potentially be further bearish pressure to test 1.20655, in-line with our 27.2% Fibonacci extension, descending trendline support and weekly 20 EMA. This would be the key support level to monitor for today. If price breaks the level there could be further bearish pressure to 1.20110, in-line with our -61.8% and -78.6% Fibonacci extension.

If price bounces back, they could face further bearish pressure at 1.21702, in-line with our 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and overlap support-turned-resistance. If the bounce continues, the next level of resistance will be at 1.22180, in-line with our 100%Fibonacci extension and swing high overlap resistance.

Areas of consideration:

• H4 time frame, support level at 1.20655
• H4 time frame, resistance level at 1.21702 and 1.22180

GBP/USD:

Looking at the weekly chart, we can see that prices have pulled back but still above our ascending trend line and support at 1.40000 where we could potentially have pull-back before further upside. The daily time frame echoes the same view of a short-term pull back toward our ascending trendline and 50MA before further upside towards 1.43000 as our resistance target.

On the H4 timeframe, prices are consolidating sideways in a descending channel. Prices could potentially face short-term bearish pressure to our next support at 1.40610, in line with our 100%, 78.6% Fibonacci extension and descending trendline support. If price breaks this level, the next support will be at 1.40000, in line with 100%, 161.8% Fibonacci extension, 50MA and ascending trendline support from the daily.

If price bounces back, there could potentially be bearish pressure at 1.41578, in line with 78.6% Fibonacci extension and descending trendline resistance.  If the bounce continues, the next resistance level at 1.42114, in line with 127.2% Fibonacci extension and overlap swing high resistance.

Areas of consideration:

• H4 time frame, 40610 support level
• H4 time frame, 1.41578 and 1.42114 resistance level

AUD/USD:

From the Weekly timeframe, we see price trending sideways where it may return down towards 0.76073, in line with previous swing low and 78.6% fibonacci retracement. From the daily timeframe, we see price testing the 61.8% fibonacci retracement at 0.76953, if price manages to break under this level, we may see a push down further towards 0.76608, in line with 88.6% fibonacci retracement.

On the H4 timeframe, we see price reversing from 0.77240, in line with 61.8% fibonacci extension, 38.2% fibonacci retracement, and horizontal graphical overlap. From here, we may look for the next short towards 0.76608 which is in line with 78.6% fibonacci extension and daily support.

Areas of consideration:

• H4 timeframe, price may reverse from 0.77240 towards 0.76608
• Daily and weekly time frames showing slight bearish pressure.

USD/JPY

From the weekly timeframe, prices are facing resistance from horizontal swing high resistance which coincides with 50% Fibonacci retracement and 78.6% Fibonacci extension, taking support from 104.224 level which is in line with 78.6% Fibonacci retracement and 78.6% Fibonacci extension. On the daily time frame, prices are facing support from 108.425 level which coincides with 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and 50% Fibonacci extension. Prices might bounce towards daily resistance level 110.978 in line with 78.6% Fibonacci retracement. Daily EMA is also below prices, showing a bullish pressure for prices.

On the H4 timeframe, prices are bouncing from 109.066 level in line with 100% Fibonacci extension and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement towards daily resistance level 110.978. Otherwise, if prices did not push up further, prices could fall and take support on 108.425  level, in line with daily support level. Indicators on the daily timeframe suggest that the pullback is temporary and there is still a long term bullish pressure for prices. MACD is also showing a bullish pressure for prices.

Areas of consideration:

• On the H4, prices might push up towards 110.978 daily resistance level
• 066 support level on the H4 timeframe
• 425 support level on the daily timeframe

USD/CAD:

From the Weekly timeframe, we see price pushing higher away from the support level 1.20340, in line with support from 11 may (2015), 61.8% and 161.8% fibonacci extension level. On the daily timeframe, we see price testing the level of 1.21629, in line with 78.6% fibonacci retracement. If price manages to break above this level, we may see a push up towards 1.22707, in line with Weekly resistance and horizontal graphical overlap.

The H4 timeframe shows price approaching the 1.21179 level, in line with 61.8%, -27% fibonacci retracement, 100% fibonacci extension and horizontal graphical overlap. From here, we may look for a long position back towards 1.21678 level, in line with the daily and weekly bullish view.

Areas of consideration:

• The weekly and daily time frame shows a weak bullish momentum.
• On H4, price may pull back and bounce from 1.21179 towards 1.21678.

USD/CHF:

USD/CHF is now testing the weekly 0.89500 support, in line with 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and 78.6% Fibonacci extension. The daily chart shows that price is now holding below the key daily 0.92300 support-turned-resistance, and has also broken below the ascending trendline support-turned-resistance. The weekly 0.89500 support level is a key level to watch.

On the H4 chart, we can see that price has bounced from  the key weekly 0.89500 support level, in line with 127.20% Fibonacci extension, and is re-approaching the 0.90800 resistance. We note that Stochastics is also testing the upper resistance level where it has reversed off of before, showing signs of possible bearish pressure. In this scenario, we could see price reverse below the 0.90800 resistance and drop further from there. A break and close below the key 0.89500 support would see price swing towards the next weekly support.

Areas of consideration:

• The 0.89500 weekly support is a key intraday level to watch.
• Stochastics is showing signs of possible bearish pressure as it is testing the upper resistance level.

Dow Jones Industrial Average:

On the weekly chart, price is trading sideways. With price holding above the long term moving average, we can expect further bullish pressure above 32765 support. On the daily chart, price is still holding above the moving average and testing ascending trendline support. Buyers may look  to add  their longs to push price higher towards possible target at 35970 resistance.

On the H4, price dipped lower and is coming close to daily support at 33800. We could possibly see more buyers enter with their longs to play a revived bounce towards 35091 resistance. Otherwise, failure to hold above 33800 support will see price drop lower towards 32696 support next. Price is also holding above moving average

Areas of consideration:

• Watch support at 33800 on H4 closely

XAU/USD (GOLD):

On the weekly timeframe, prices are facing bullish pressure and could still see further upside, with 1965 as the weekly resistance target. On the daily, price pulled back lower, and tested 1850 support. With technical indicators showing room for further bullish momentum, we could see buyers looking to add to their longs above 1850 support and push price towards 1965 resistance.

On the H4, price dropped lower and tested and reacted above 1850 intraday and daily support. With stochastics reacting above support where price bounced in the past as well, we see a medium probability bullish scenario where buyers may look to add to their longs with a possible upside target at 1903 resistance. Otherwise, failure to hold above 1850 support could see price drop lower towards 1813 daily support instead.

Areas of consideration:

• 1850 support to watch on H4 timeframe

The accuracy, completeness and timeliness of the information contained on this site cannot be guaranteed. IC Markets does not warranty, guarantee or make any representations, or assume any liability regarding financial results based on the use of the information in the site.

News, views, opinions, recommendations and other information obtained from sources outside of www.icmarkets.com.au, used in this site are believed to be reliable, but we cannot guarantee their accuracy or completeness. All such information is subject to change at any time without notice. IC Markets assumes no responsibility for the content of any linked site.

The fact that such links may exist does not indicate approval or endorsement of any material contained on any linked site. IC Markets is not liable for any harm caused by the transmission, through accessing the services or information on this site, of a computer virus, or other computer code or programming device that might be used to access, delete, damage, disable, disrupt or otherwise impede in any manner, the operation of the site or of any user’s software, hardware, data or property.

Global Markets:

• Asian Stock Markets : Nikkei up 0.74%, Shanghai Composite down 0.58%, Hang Seng up 0.52%, ASX up 0.13%
• Commodities : Gold at $1859.70 (-1.06%), Silver at $27.83 (-1.14%), Brent Oil at $73.39 (+0.96%), WTI Oil at $71.52 (+0.86%)
• Rates : US 10-year yield at 1.464, UK 10-year yield at 0.712, Germany 10-year yield at -0.270

News & Data:

• (USD) Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment 86.4 vs 84.1 expected
• ECB’s Holzmann: In Dangerous Zone As Inflation Concerns Rise
• French President Macron offers UK PM Johnson ‘Le reset’ if he keeps his Brexit word

Markets Update:

Asian stock markets are trading mixed on Monday on a light day for the region with four major markets on holiday, following the broadly positive cues from Wall Street on Friday. The markets are supported by energy and technology stocks in particular. Meanwhile, investors seem reluctant to make significant moves ahead of the U.S. Federal Reserve’s monetary policy meeting scheduled for Tuesday and Wednesday for cues about global economic recovery.

Japanese stock market is modestly higher on Monday, after the slight losses of the previous session, with the Nikkei 225 falling just above the 29,100 level. Markets in Australia, mainland China and Hong Kong were closed on Monday for holidays.

The U.S. dollar index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of its peers, was at 90.526 following a recent climb past the 90.3 level. Oil prices held at multi-year highs on an improved outlook for worldwide fuel demand. Bitcoin held on to gains won on the weekend when Elon Musk flagged Tesla’s possible resumption of transactions using the token.

Upcoming Events:

Monday, June 14, 2021

• 01:00 PM GMT – (GBP) BOE Gov Bailey Speaks

Tuesday, June 15, 2021

• 01:30 AM GMT – (AUD) Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
• 12:15 PM GMT – (GBP) BOE Gov Bailey Speaks
• 12:30 PM GMT – (USD) Core Retail Sales m/m
• 12:30 PM GMT – (USD) PPI m/m
• 12:30 PM GMT – (USD) Retail Sales m/m
• 12:30 PM GMT – (USD) Core PPI m/m
• 01:15 PM GMT – (USD) Industrial Production m/m

Wednesday, June 16, 2021

• 06:00 AM GMT – (GBP) CPI y/y
• 12:30 PM GMT – (CAD) CPI m/m
• 12:30 PM GMT – (CAD) Common CPI y/y
• 12:30 PM GMT – (CAD) Median CPI y/y
• 12:30 PM GMT – (CAD) Trimmed CPI y/y
• 02:30 PM GMT – (USD) Crude Oil Inventories
• 06:00 PM GMT – (USD) FOMC Economic Projections
• 06:00 PM GMT – (USD) FOMC Statement
• 06:00 PM GMT – (USD) Federal Funds Rate
• 06:30 PM GMT – (USD) FOMC Press Conference
• 10:30 PM GMT – (CAD) BOC Gov Macklem Speaks
• 10:45 PM GMT – (NZD) GDP q/q

Thursday, June 17, 2021

• 12:10 AM GMT – (AUD) RBA Gov Lowe Speaks
• 01:30 AM GMT – (AUD) Employment Change
• 01:30 AM GMT – (AUD) Unemployment Rate
• 07:30 AM GMT – (CHF) SNB Monetary Policy Assessment
• 07:30 AM GMT – (CHF) SNB Policy Rate
• 08:00 AM GMT – (CHF) SNB Press Conference
• 12:30 PM GMT – (USD) Philly Fed Manufacturing Index
• 12:30 PM GMT – (USD) Unemployment Claims

Friday, June 18, 2021

• Tentative – (JPY) Monetary Policy Statement
• 06:00 AM GMT – (GBP) Retail Sales m/m
• Tentative – (JPY) BOJ Press Conference

EUR/USD:

Looking at the weekly chart, we can see that prices have pulled back and there could potentially be further bearish pressure to our 20 EMA at 1.20600. On the daily chart price bounced off 1.20931, in line with 50 MA and 61.8% on Fibonacci retracement last Friday where there could potentially be a short-term bounce before facing further bearish pressure to retest 1.20600 of weekly 20 EMA.

On the H4 timeframe, prices are trending in the descending channel making lower highs and lower lows. There could potentially be further bearish pressure to test 1.20600, in-line with our -27.2% Fibonacci extension, descending trendline support and weekly 20 EMA. MACD is also trending down, signalling further bearish pressure. This would be the key support level to monitor for today. If price breaks the level there could be further bearish pressure to 1.20110, in-line with our -61.8% and -78.6% Fibonacci extension.

If price bounces back, they could face further bearish pressure at 1.21311, in-line with our 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and overlap resistance. If the bounce continues, the level of resistance will be at 1.21702, in-line with our 61.8%Fibonacci extension, descending trendline and overlap resistance.

Areas of consideration:

• H4 time frame, support level at 1.20600
• H4 time frame, resistance level at 1.21311 and 1.21702

GBP/USD:

Looking at the weekly chart, we can see that prices have pulled back but still above our ascending trend line and support at 1.40000 where we could potentially have pull-back before further upside. The daily time frame echoes the same view of a short-term pull back toward our ascending trendline and 50MA before further upside towards 1.43000 as our resistance target.

On the H4 timeframe, prices are consolidating sideways in a descending channel. Prices could potentially face short-term bearish pressure to our next support at 1.40610, in line with our 127.2% Fibonacci extension and descending trendline support. If price breaks this level, the next support will be at 1.40080, in line with 161.8% Fibonacci extension, 50MA and ascending trendline support from the daily

If price bounces back, there could potentially be bearish pressure at 1.41578, in line with 78.6% Fibonacci extension and descending trendline resistance. Follow up next resistance level at 1.42114, in line with 127.2% Fibonacci extension and overlap swing high resistance.

Areas of consideration:

• H4 time frame, 40610 support level
• H4 time frame, 1.41578 and 1.42114 resistance level

AUD/USD:

From the Weekly timeframe, we see price trending sideways where it may return down towards 0.76073, in line with previous swing low and 78.6% fibonacci retracement. From the daily timeframe, we see price testing the 61.8% fibonacci retracement at 0.76953, if price manages to break under this level, we may see a push down further towards the weekly support.

On the H4 timeframe, we see price reversing from the daily support level of 0.76953, where we may expect a pullback towards 0.77240, in line with 61.8% fibonacci extension, 38.2% fibonacci retracement, and horizontal graphical overlap. From here, we may look for the next call of short which is in line with the bigger timeframe.

Areas of consideration:

• H4 timeframe, price may pullback from 0.76953 towards 0.77240.
• Daily and weekly time frames showing bearish pressure. 

USD/JPY

From the weekly timeframe, prices are facing resistance from horizontal swing high resistance which coincides with 50% Fibonacci retracement and 78.6% Fibonacci extension, taking support from 104.224 level which is in line with 78.6% Fibonacci retracement and 78.6% Fibonacci extension. On the daily time frame, prices are facing support from 108.425 level which coincides with 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and 50% Fibonacci extension. Prices might bounce towards daily resistance level 110.978 in line with 78.6% Fibonacci retracement. Daily EMA is also below prices, showing a bullish pressure for prices.

On the H4 timeframe, prices are bouncing from 109.066 level in line with 100% Fibonacci extension and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement towards daily resistance level 110.978. Otherwise, if prices did not push up further, prices could fall and take support on 108.425  level, in line with daily support level. Indicators on the daily timeframe suggest that the pullback is temporary and there is still a long term bullish pressure for prices. MACD is also showing a bullish pressure for prices.

Areas of consideration:

• On the H4, prices might push up towards 110.978 daily resistance level
• 066 support level on the H4 timeframe
• 425 support level on the daily timeframe

USD/CAD:

From the Weekly timeframe, we see price pushing higher away from the support level 1.20340, in line with support from 11 may (2015), 61.8% and 161.8% fibonacci extension level. On the daily timeframe, we see price testing the level of 1.21629, in line with 78.6% fibonacci retracement. If price manages to break above this level, we may see a push up towards 1.22707, in line with Weekly resistance and horizontal graphical overlap.

The H4 timeframe shows a reversal from -61.8% fibonacci retracement where we may see a pullback towards the 1.21179 level, in line with 61.8% fibonacci retracement, 100% fibonacci extension and horizontal graphical overlap. From here, we may look for a long position back towards 1.21678 level, in line with the bullish view.

Areas of consideration:

• The weekly and daily time frame shows a weak bullish momentum.
• On H4, price may pull back towards 1.21179.

USD/CHF:

USD/CHF is now testing the weekly 0.89500 support, in line with 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and 78.6% Fibonacci extension. The daily chart shows that price is now holding below the key daily 0.92300 support-turned-resistance, and has also broken below the ascending trendline support-turned-resistance. The weekly 0.89500 support level is a key level to watch.

On the H4 chart, we can see that price has bounced from  the key weekly 0.89500 support level, in line with 127.20% Fibonacci extension, and is re-approaching the 0.90800 resistance. We note that Stochastics is also approaching the upper resistance level where it has reversed off of before, showing signs of possible bearish pressure. In this scenario, we could see price at the 0.90800 resistance and drop further from there. A break and close below the key 0.89500 support would see price swing towards the next weekly support.

Areas of consideration:

• The 0.89500 weekly support is a key intraday level to watch.
• Stochastics is showing signs of possible bearish pressure.

Dow Jones Industrial Average:

On the weekly chart, price is trading sideways. With price holding above the long term moving average, we can expect further bullish pressure above 32765 support. On the daily chart, price is still holding above the moving average but testing ascending trendline support. Buyers may look  to add  their longs to push price higher towards possible target at 35970 resistance.

On the H4, price dipped lower and continues to face bearish pressure below 35091 resistance. We could possibly see more sellers enter with their shorts to play a short term drop towards 33800 support. Otherwise, failure to hold below 35091 resistance will see price push higher towards 35970 resistance next. Stochastic is testing resistance where price showed a pull back in the past.

Areas of consideration:

• Watch resistance at 35091 on H4 closely
• Stochastics reacting below resistance on H4

XAU/USD (GOLD):

On the weekly timeframe, prices are facing bullish pressure and could still see further upside, with 1965 as the weekly resistance target. On the daily, price pulled back lower, approaching 1850 support. With technical indicators showing room for further bullish momentum, we could see buyers looking to add to their longs above 1850 support and push price towards 1965 resistance.

On the H4, price dropped lower and is approaching 1865 intraday support. With stochastics approaching support where price bounced in the past as well, we see a medium probability bullish scenario where buyers may look to add to their longs with a possible upside target at 1903 resistance. Otherwise, failure to hold above 1865 support could see price drop lower towards 1850 daily support instead.

Areas of consideration:

• 1903 resistance to watch on H4 timeframe
• Descending trendline resistance on H4

The accuracy, completeness and timeliness of the information contained on this site cannot be guaranteed. IC Markets does not warranty, guarantee or make any representations, or assume any liability regarding financial results based on the use of the information in the site.

News, views, opinions, recommendations and other information obtained from sources outside of www.icmarkets.com.au, used in this site are believed to be reliable, but we cannot guarantee their accuracy or completeness. All such information is subject to change at any time without notice. IC Markets assumes no responsibility for the content of any linked site.

The fact that such links may exist does not indicate approval or endorsement of any material contained on any linked site. IC Markets is not liable for any harm caused by the transmission, through accessing the services or information on this site, of a computer virus, or other computer code or programming device that might be used to access, delete, damage, disable, disrupt or otherwise impede in any manner, the operation of the site or of any user’s software, hardware, data or property.