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Ex-Dividend 10/2/2025
Ex-Dividend 10/2/2025

Ex-Dividend 10/2/2025

411862   February 7, 2025 16:39   ICMarkets   Market News  

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Ex-Dividends
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10/02/2025
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Indices Name
Index Adjustment Points
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Australia 200 CFD
AUS200
5
IBEX-35 Index ES35
6
France 40 CFD F40
7
Hong Kong 50 CFD
HK50
8
Italy 40 CFD IT40
9
Japan 225 CFD
JP225
10
EU Stocks 50 CFD
STOXX50 0.87
11
UK 100 CFD UK100
12
US SP 500 CFD
US500 0.88
13
Wall Street CFD
US30 11.80
14
US Tech 100 CFD
USTEC 2.71
15
FTSE CHINA 50
CHINA50
16
Canada 60 CFD
CA60
17
Germany Tech 40 CFD
TecDE30
18
Germany Mid 50 CFD
MidDE50
19
Netherlands 25 CFD
NETH25 0.23
20
Switzerland 20 CFD
SWI20
21
Hong Kong China H-shares CFD
CHINAH
22
Norway 25 CFD
NOR25
23
South Africa 40 CFD
SA40
24
Sweden 30 CFD
SE30
25
US 2000 CFD US2000 0.12

The post Ex-Dividend 10/2/2025 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

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Friday 7th February 2025: Asia-Pacific Markets Mixed Amid Economic Updates
Friday 7th February 2025: Asia-Pacific Markets Mixed Amid Economic Updates

Friday 7th February 2025: Asia-Pacific Markets Mixed Amid Economic Updates

411852   February 7, 2025 13:00   ICMarkets   Market News  

Global Markets:

  •  Asian Stock Markets : Nikkei up 0.43%, Shanghai Composite up 1.23%, Hang Seng up 0.96% ASX down 0.11%
  • Commodities : Gold at $2886.35 (0.23%), Silver at $32.75 (0.38%), Brent Oil at $74.69 (0.59%), WTI Oil at $70.94 (0.43%)
  • Rates : US 10-year yield at 4.449, UK 10-year yield at 4.482, Germany 10-year yield at 2.372

News & Data:

  • (GBP) Official Bank Rate  4.50% vs 4.50% expected
  • (USD) Unemployment Claims  219K vs 214K expected

Markets Update:

Asia-Pacific markets were mixed on Friday as investors analyzed India’s interest rate decision and Japan’s household spending data. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 traded flat, while Japan’s Nikkei 225 fell 0.44% and the Topix declined 0.39%. However, Japan’s household spending in December surged 2.7% year-on-year, significantly exceeding expectations of a 0.2% rise. South Korea’s Kospi slipped 0.17%, while the Kosdaq remained near the flatline. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index gained 0.6%, and China’s CSI 300 advanced 0.77%.

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) cut its key interest rate for the first time in nearly five years, reducing the repo rate by 25 basis points to 6.25% to stimulate economic growth. India’s benchmark stock indexes, Nifty 50 and Sensex, remained flat, while the rupee slightly strengthened to 87.4 against the dollar after reaching an all-time low. RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra announced the decision in a livestreamed address, highlighting cooling inflation as a factor in the rate cut.

In the U.S., major stock indexes closed higher on Thursday as investors assessed corporate earnings. The S&P 500 rose 0.36% to 6,083.57, while the Nasdaq Composite gained 0.51% to 19,791.99. However, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 125.65 points (0.28%) to 44,747.63. The S&P 500 notched its third consecutive positive session, signaling investor optimism despite mixed economic signals.

Markets are now focused on the U.S. jobs report, set for release on Friday. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones anticipate 169,000 new jobs in January, a decline from December’s 256,000. The report is expected to provide insights into labor market trends and influence future Federal Reserve policy decisions.

Upcoming Events: 

  • 01:30 PM GMT – CAD Unemployment Rate
  • 01:30 PM GMT – CAD Employment Change
  • 01:30 PM GMT – USD Average Hourly Earnings m/m
  • 01:30 PM GMT – USD Non-Farm Employment Change
  • 01:30 PM GMT – USD Unemployment Rate

The post Friday 7th February 2025: Asia-Pacific Markets Mixed Amid Economic Updates first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

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IC Markets Europe Fundamental Forecast | 7 February 2025
IC Markets Europe Fundamental Forecast | 7 February 2025

IC Markets Europe Fundamental Forecast | 7 February 2025

411851   February 7, 2025 13:00   ICMarkets   Market News  

IC Markets Europe Fundamental Forecast | 7 February 2025

What happened in the Asia session?

With Friday being non-farm payrolls (NFPs) day, trading activity was fairly quiet during this session and it could remain the same as European markets come online shortly. The dollar index (DXY) edged towards 108 while spot prices for gold retreated away from this morning’s high of $2,870.52/oz. However, trading volume is bound to pick up substantially as the clock inches closer to the release of the employment report by the Bureau of Labor Statistics later today.

What does it mean for the Europe & US sessions?

Industrial production in Germany declined by 3% overall in 2024 as the manufacturing sector remained in contraction for most of the year with energy-intensive industries facing significant challenges. November’s production output had increased by 1.5% MoM, beating forecasts of 0.5%, but December’s forecast points to a decline of 0.7% MoM. The Euro has appreciated in the first week of February but further significant deterioration in industrial production could weigh on this currency.

Canada will release its equivalent of the U.S. non-farm payrolls at the same time as its neighbour to the south. Despite a weak economy and rising unemployment, job growth rebounded strongly as 91K jobs were added to the economy in December. However, January’s forecasts point to a significant slowdown in the pace of job creation while the unemployment rate is anticipated to edge higher from 6.7% to 6.8%.

The Dollar Index (DXY)

Key news events today

BLS Employment Report (1:30 pm GMT)

What can we expect from DXY today?

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will release its employment report for January where non-farm payrolls (NFPs) are expected to add 169K jobs to the economy while the unemployment rate remains unchanged at 4.1%. Following a strong rebound in NFPs in the final two months of last year and a robust showing in Wednesday’s ADP private payrolls, markets will be looking to see if this hiring momentum will continue in the latest BLS report. Whatever the outcome, financial markets will no doubt experience extreme volatility following the release of this report.

Central Bank Notes:

  • The Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System voted unanimously to maintain the Federal Funds Rate in a target range of 4.25 to 4.50% on 29 January.
  • The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2% over the longer run and judges that the risks to achieving its employment and inflation goals are roughly in balance. The economic outlook is uncertain, and the Committee is attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate.
  • Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace while the unemployment rate has stabilized at a low level in recent months, and labour market conditions remain solid. However, inflation remains somewhat elevated.
  • December’s Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) now indicates just two rate cuts in 2025 totalling 50 bps, compared to the full percentage point of reductions projected in the previous quarter.
  • GDP growth forecasts were revised upward for 2024 (2.5% vs. 2% in the September projection) and 2025 (2.1% vs. 2%), while remaining steady at 2% for 2026. Similarly, PCE inflation projections have been adjusted higher for 2024 (2.4% vs. 2.3%), 2025 (2.5% vs. 2.1%), and 2026 (2.1% vs. 2%).
  • In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook and would be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of the Committee’s goals.
  • The Committee will roll over at auction the amount of principal payments from the Federal Reserve’s holdings of Treasury securities maturing in each calendar month that exceeds a cap of $25 billion per month and redeem Treasury coupon securities up to this monthly cap and Treasury bills to the extent that coupon principal payments are less than the monthly cap.
  • In addition, the Committee will reinvest the amount of principal payments from the Federal Reserve’s holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS) received in each calendar month that exceeds a cap of $35 billion per month into Treasury securities to roughly match the maturity composition of Treasury securities outstanding.
  • The next meeting runs from 18 to 19 March 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish


Gold (XAU)

Key news events today

BLS Employment Report (1:30 pm GMT)

What can we expect from Gold today?

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will release its employment report for January where non-farm payrolls (NFPs) are expected to add 169K jobs to the economy while the unemployment rate remains unchanged at 4.1%. Following a strong rebound in NFPs in the final two months of last year and a robust showing in Wednesday’s ADP private payrolls, markets will be looking to see if this hiring momentum will continue in the latest BLS report. Whatever the outcome, financial markets will no doubt experience extreme volatility following the release of this report.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bullish


The Australian Dollar (AUD)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from AUD today?

It is a quiet calendar for the Aussie but this currency pair will likely spring into life later today with the release of the BLS employment report during the U.S. session.

Central Bank Notes:

  • The RBA kept the cash rate target unchanged at 4.35% on 10 December, marking the ninth consecutive pause.
  • Inflation has fallen substantially since the peak in 2022, as higher interest rates have been working to bring aggregate demand and supply closer towards balance. However, measures of underlying inflation are around 3.5%, which is still some way from the 2.5% midpoint of the inflation target.
  • The most recent forecasts published in the November Statement on Monetary Policy (SMP) do not see inflation returning sustainably to the midpoint of the target until 2026 but the Board is gaining some confidence that inflationary pressures are declining in line with these recent forecasts with risks remaining in place.
  • Growth in output has been weak as the economy grew by only 0.8% in the September quarter over the past year. Outside of the COVID-19 pandemic, this was the slowest pace of growth since the early 1990s.
  • A range of indicators suggest that labour market conditions remain tight; while those conditions have been easing gradually, some indicators have recently stabilised. The unemployment rate was 4.1 per cent in October, up from 3.5 per cent in late 2022.
  • Wage pressures have eased more than expected in the November SMP. The rate of wage growth as measured by the Wage Price Index was 3.5% over the year to the September quarter, a step down from the previous quarter, but labour productivity growth remains weak.
  • Sustainably returning inflation to target within a reasonable timeframe remains the Board’s highest priority. This is consistent with the RBA’s mandate for price stability and full employment. To date, longer-term inflation expectations have been consistent with the inflation target and it is important that this remains the case.
  • The Board will continue to rely upon the data and the evolving assessment of risks to guide its decisions, paying close attention to developments in the global economy and financial markets, trends in domestic demand, and the outlook for inflation and the labour market.
  • The next meeting is on 18 February 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bearish


The Kiwi Dollar (NZD)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from NZD today?

Like its Pacific neighbour, the Kiwi could face a relatively quiet trading environment during the Asian and European trading hours before markets are jolted into action as the non-farm payrolls report is dropped during the U.S. session.

Central Bank Notes:

  • The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) agreed to reduce the Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 50 basis points bringing it down to 4.25% on 27 November, marking the third consecutive rate cut.
  • The Committee assessed that annual consumer price inflation has declined and is now close to the midpoint of the MPC’s 1 to 3% target band; inflation expectations are also close to target and core inflation is converging to the midpoint.
  • Economic activity remains subdued and output continues to be below its potential. With excess productive capacity in the economy, inflation pressures have eased. If economic conditions continue to evolve as projected, the Committee expects to be able to lower the OCR further early next year.
  • Domestic economic activity remains below trend, as a result of weakness in demand for durable goods consumption and investment. This has been reflected in falling activity in interest rate sensitive sectors such as construction, manufacturing, and retail trade. In contrast, some service sectors have continued to grow.
  • Consistent with feedback from business visits, high-frequency indicators suggest that the economy has stabilised in recent months. Economic growth is expected to recover from the December quarter, in part due to lower interest rates, but there is uncertainty around the exact timing and speed of the recovery.
  • Wage growth is slowing, consistent with inflation returning to the target midpoint while employment levels and job vacancies have declined, reflecting subdued economic activity; unemployment is expected to continue rising in the near term.
  • Expectations of future inflation, the pricing intentions of firms, and spare productive capacity are consistent with the inflation target being sustainably achieved, providing the context and the confidence for the Committee to ease monetary policy restraint further.
  • The next meeting is on 19 February 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bearish


The Japanese Yen (JPY)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from JPY today?

Demand for the yen remains intact with hawkish expectations from the BoJ arising from a combination of robust wage growth and persistent inflation in Japan. USD/JPY dived under 151.50 overnight and this currency pair is all but certain to register a fourth successive week of decline.

Central Bank Notes:

  • The Policy Board of the Bank of Japan decided on 24 January, by an 8-1 majority vote, to set the following guidelines for money market operations for the inter-meeting period:
    1. The Bank will encourage the uncollateralized overnight call rate to remain at around 0.5%.
    2. The Bank will embark on a plan to reduce the amount of its monthly outright purchases of JGBs so that it will be about 3 trillion yen in January-March 2026; the amount will be cut down by about 400 billion yen each calendar quarter in principle.
  • Japan’s economy has recovered moderately, although some weakness has been seen in part. Exports and industrial production have been more or less flat while corporate profits have been on an improving trend and business sentiment has stayed at a favourable level.
  • The employment and income situation has improved moderately while private consumption has been on a moderately increasing trend despite the impact of price rises and other factors.
  • On the price front, the year-on-year rate of increase in the consumer price index (CPI, all items less fresh food) has been at around 3% recently, as services prices have continued to rise moderately, reflecting factors such as wage increases, although the effects of a pass-through to consumer prices of cost increases led by the past rise in import prices have waned.
  • Inflation expectations have risen moderately while underlying CPI inflation has been increasing gradually toward the price stability target of 2%. With wages continuing to rise, there has been an increase in moves to reflect higher costs, such as increased personnel expenses and distribution costs, in selling prices.
  • Japan’s economy is likely to keep growing at a pace above its potential growth rate, with overseas economies continuing to grow moderately and as a virtuous cycle from income to spending gradually intensifies against the background of factors such as accommodative financial conditions.
  • The next meeting is on 19 March 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish


The Euro (EUR)

Key news events today

Germany Industrial Production (7:00 am GMT)

What can we expect from EUR today?

Industrial production declined by 3% overall in 2024 as the manufacturing sector remained in contraction for most of the year with energy-intensive industries facing significant challenges. November’s production output had increased by 1.5% MoM, beating forecasts of 0.5%, but December’s forecast points to a decline of 0.7% MoM. The Euro has appreciated in the first week of February but further significant deterioration in industrial production could weigh on this currency.

Central Bank Notes:

  • The Governing Council reduced the three key ECB interest rates by 25 basis points on 30 January to mark the fourth successive rate cut.
  • Accordingly, the interest rate on the main refinancing operations and the interest rates on the marginal lending facility and the deposit facility will be decreased to 2.90%, 3.15% and 2.75% respectively.
  • The disinflation process is well on track and inflation is set to return to the Governing Council’s 2% medium-term target in the course of this year. Most measures of underlying inflation suggest that inflation will settle at around the target on a sustained basis.
  • Staff see headline inflation averaging 2.4% in 2024, 2.1% in 2025, 1.9% in 2026 and 2.1% in 2027 when the expanded EU Emissions Trading System becomes operational. For inflation excluding energy and food, staff project an average of 2.9% in 2024, 2.3% in 2025 and 1.9% in both 2026 and 2027.
  • Staff now expect a slower economic recovery than in the September projections. Although growth picked up in the third quarter of this year, survey indicators suggest it has slowed in the current quarter – the economy is expected to grow by 0.7% in 2024, 1.1% in 2025, 1.4% in 2026 and 1.3% in 2027
  • The asset purchase programme (APP) and pandemic emergency purchase programme (PEPP) portfolios are declining at a measured and predictable pace, as the Eurosystem no longer reinvests the principal payments from maturing securities.
  • The Governing Council stands ready to adjust all of its instruments within its mandate to ensure that inflation stabilises sustainably at its 2% target over the medium term and to preserve the smooth functioning of monetary policy transmission.
  • The next meeting is on 6 March 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bearish


The Swiss Franc (CHF)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from CHF today?

Demand for the franc waned on Wednesday as USD/CHF found its footing just above the threshold of 0.9000 to rise to a high of 0.9061 on Thursday. This currency pair should continue to climb higher on Friday but is poised to close the week in the red.

Central Bank Notes:

  • The SNB eased monetary policy by lowering its key policy rate by 50 basis points, going from 1.00% to 0.50% on 12 December, marking the fourth consecutive reduction.
  • Underlying inflationary pressure has decreased again this quarter.
  • Inflation in the period since the last monetary policy assessment has again been lower than expected as it decreased from 1.1% in August to 0.7% in November; both goods and services contributed to this decline.
  • In the shorter term, the new conditional inflation forecast is below that of September: 1.1% for 2024, 0.3% for 2025 and 0.8% for 2026, based on the assumption that the SNB policy rate is 0.5% over the entire forecast horizon.
  • GDP growth in Switzerland was only modest in the third quarter of 2024 with growth in the services sector again somewhat stronger, while value added in manufacturing declined.
  • There was a further slight increase in unemployment, and employment growth was subdued while the utilisation of overall production capacity was
  • normal.
  • The SNB anticipates GDP growth of around 1% this year while currently expecting growth of between 1.0% and 1.5% for 2025.
  • The SNB will continue to monitor the situation closely and will adjust its monetary policy if necessary to ensure inflation remains within the range consistent with price stability over the medium term.
  • The next meeting is on 20 March 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish


The Pound (GBP)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from GBP today?

Following a pause at December’s board meeting, the Bank of England (BoE) reduced its official bank rate by 25 basis points (bps) to bring it down to 4.50% in line with market expectations. The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted by a majority of 7–2 to reduce the Bank Rate by 0.25 bps while two members preferred to reduce it by 50 bps. With inflationary pressures progressing towards the target of 2% and the growth forecast for 2025 significantly downgraded, it paved the way for this central bank to cut rates at the first board meeting of 2025. The Pound had weakened in early Thursday as Cable tumbled under 1.2400. However, it stabilized around 1.2360 before climbing strongly to hit an overnight high of 1.2455 as the BoE conveyed a patient outlook concerning future monetary policy action, noting that inflation is following a bumpy path.

Central Bank Notes:

  • The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted by a majority of 7 to 2 to reduce the Bank Rate by 25 basis points (bps) to bring it down to 4.50% on 6 February 2025, while two members preferred to reduce it by 50 bps.
  • The MPC also voted unanimously to reduce the stock of UK government bond purchases held for monetary policy purposes and financed by the issuance of central bank reserves, by £100B over the next 12 months to a total of £558B, starting in October 2024. On 18 December 2024, the stock of UK government bonds held for monetary policy purposes was £655B.
  • CPI inflation was 2.5% in 2024 Q4 as domestic inflationary pressures moderated but remained somewhat elevated while some indicators eased more slowly than expected. Higher global energy costs and regulated price changes are expected to push up headline CPI inflation to 3.7% in 2025 Q3, even as underlying domestic inflationary pressures are expected to wane further.
  • While CPI inflation is expected to fall back to around the 2% target thereafter, the Committee will pay close attention to any consequent signs of more lasting inflationary pressures.
  • GDP growth has been weaker than expected at the time of the November Monetary Policy Report, and indicators of business and consumer confidence have declined – GDP growth is expected to pick up from the middle of this year.
  • The labour market has continued to ease and is judged to be broadly in balance. Productivity growth has been weaker than previously estimated, and the Committee judges that growth in the supply capacity of the economy has weakened.
  • Based on the Committee’s evolving view of the medium-term outlook for inflation, a gradual and careful approach to the further withdrawal of monetary policy restraint is appropriate and it will continue to monitor closely the risks of inflation persistence and what the evolving evidence may reveal about the balance between aggregate supply and demand in the economy.
  • Monetary policy will need to continue to remain restrictive for sufficiently long until the risks to inflation returning sustainably to the 2% target in the medium term have dissipated further and the Committee will decide the appropriate degree of monetary policy restrictiveness at each meeting.
  • The next meeting is on 8 May 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bearish


The Canadian Dollar (CAD)

Key news events today

Labour Force Report (1:30 pm GMT)

What can we expect from CAD today?

Canada will release its equivalent of the U.S. non-farm payrolls at the same time as its neighbour to the south. Despite a weak economy and rising unemployment, job growth rebounded strongly as 91K jobs were added to the economy in December. However, January’s forecasts point to a significant slowdown in the pace of job creation while the unemployment rate is anticipated to edge higher from 6.7% to 6.8%. The Loonie will no doubt face extreme volatility during the U.S. session.

Central Bank Notes:

  • The Bank of Canada reduced its target for the overnight rate by 25 basis points bringing it down to 3% on 29 January; this marked the sixth consecutive meeting where rates were reduced.
  • The bank announced its plan to complete the normalization of its balance sheet, ending quantitative tightening, and will restart asset purchases in early March, beginning gradually so that its balance sheet stabilizes and then grows modestly, in line with growth in the economy.
  • Past cuts to interest rates have started to boost the economy and the recent strengthening in both consumption and housing activity is expected to continue. However, business investment remains weak while the outlook for exports is being supported by new export capacity for oil and gas.
  • The Bank forecasts GDP growth will strengthen in 2025 and now projects GDP will grow by 1.8% in both 2025 and 2026, somewhat higher than potential growth.
  • The labour market remains soft, with the unemployment rate at 6.7% in December. Job growth has strengthened in recent months, after lagging growth in the labour force for more than a year. Wage pressures, which have proven sticky, are showing some signs of easing.
  • CPI inflation remains close to 2%, with some volatility due to the temporary suspension of the GST/HST on some consumer products. Shelter price inflation is still elevated but it is easing gradually, as expected
  • A broad range of indicators, including surveys of inflation expectations and the distribution of price changes among components of the CPI, suggests that underlying inflation is close to 2% with forecasts that CPI inflation will be around the 2% target over the next two years.
  • With inflation around 2%, the economy in excess supply, and recent indicators tilted towards softer growth than projected, the Governing Council decided to reduce the policy rate a further 25 basis points to support growth and keep inflation close to the middle of the 1-3% target range.
  • The cumulative reduction in the policy rate since last June is substantial as lower interest rates are boosting household spending and the economy is expected to strengthen gradually and inflation to stay close to target. However, if broad-based and significant tariffs were imposed, the resilience of Canada’s economy would be tested.
  • The Bank is committed to maintaining price stability for Canadians by keeping inflation close to the 2% target.
  • The next meeting is on 12 March 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish


Oil

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from Oil today?

Escalating global trade tensions coupled with rising U.S. inventories will ensure that crude oil prices will notch its third consecutive week of decline. WTI oil has shed over 8.5% over this period as it hovered around $70.50 per barrel as Asian markets came online on Friday – overhead pressures for this commodity are likely to persist as the final trading day comes to a close.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish


The post IC Markets Europe Fundamental Forecast | 7 February 2025 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

Full Article

Friday 7th February 2025: Technical Outlook and Review
Friday 7th February 2025: Technical Outlook and Review

Friday 7th February 2025: Technical Outlook and Review

411847   February 7, 2025 11:39   ICMarkets   Market News  

DXY (US Dollar Index):

Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish 

Price could potentially make a bullish bounce off the pivot and rise toward the 1st resistance 

Pivot: 107.13

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a potential area where buying interests could pick up to stage a rebound. 

1st support: 106.21
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential level where price could find support once more.

1st resistance: 108.30
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

EUR/USD:

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price could potentially make a bearish reversal off the pivot and fall toward the 1st support

Pivot: 1.0461

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance that aligns with the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify.

1st support: 1.0345

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a potential level where price could find support once again.

1st resistance: 1.0534
Supporting reasons:  Identified as a swing high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement. 

EUR/JPY:

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price could potentially make a bearish reversal off the pivot and fall toward the 1st support

Pivot: 158.50

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify.

1st support: 156.66

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing low support that aligns close to the 161.8%  Fibonacci extension, indicating a potential level where price could find support once more.

1st resistance: 159.71
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

EUR/GBP:

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price could potentially make a bearish reversal off the pivot and drop toward the 1st support

Pivot: 0.8376

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns close to the 50% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify. 

1st support: 0.8272

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support that aligns close to the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential level where price could find support once again.

1st resistance: 0.8444
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance,  indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

GBP/USD:

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price could potentially make a bearish reversal off the pivot and fall toward the 1st support

Pivot: 1.2609

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance that aligns with the 127.2% Fibonacci extension, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify.

1st support: 1.2367

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential level where price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 1.2718
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

GBP/JPY:

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price could potentially make a bearish reversal off the pivot and fall toward the 1st support

Pivot: 190.60

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify.

1st support: 188.07
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing low support that aligns with the 161.8% Fibonacci extension, indicating a potential level where price could find support once again.

1st resistance: 193.14
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

USD/CHF:

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

Price could potentially make a bearish reversal off the pivot and fall toward the 1st support

Pivot: 0.9092

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify.

1st support: 0.8974
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential level where price could find support once again.

1st resistance: 0.9198
Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi-swing high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

USD/JPY:

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price could potentially make a bullish bounce off the pivot and rise toward the 1st resistance 

Pivot: 151.11

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns close to the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement and the 100% Fibonacci projection, indicating a potential area where buying interests could pick up to stage a rebound. 

1st support: 149.55
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential level where price could find support once more.

1st resistance: 153.24
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

USD/CAD:

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price could fall towards the pivot and potentially make a bullish bounce off this level to rise towards the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 1.4279
Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi-swing-low support, indicating a potential area where buying interests could pick up to stage a minor rebound.

1st support: 1.4178
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a key level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 1.4404
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance that aligns close to a 23.6% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

AUD/USD:

Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

Price has made a bullish bounce off the pivot and could potentially rise towards the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 0.6255

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential level where buying interests could pick to resume the uptrend.

1st support: 0.6182

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, suggesting a potential area where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 0.6323
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

NZD/USD

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

Price is rising towards the pivot and could potentially make a bearish reversal off this level to pull back towards the 1st support.

Pivot: 0.5716

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-high resistance, indicating a potential level where selling pressures could intensify.

1st support: 0.5628

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, suggesting a potential area where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 0.5781

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-high resistance that aligns with a 127.2% Fibonacci extension, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

US30 (DJIA):

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

Price is rising towards the pivot and could potentially make a bearish reversal off this level to pull back towards the 1st support.

Pivot: 45,078.54

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-high resistance that aligns close to the all-time high, indicating a potential level where selling pressures could intensify.

1st support: 43,819.77

Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi-swing-low support that aligns close to a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 45,779.82

Supporting reasons: Identified as a resistance that aligns with a 161.8% Fibonacci extension, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

DE40 (DAX):

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

Price could rise towards the pivot and potentially make a bearish reversal off this level to pull back towards the 1st support.

Pivot: 21,994.22

Supporting reasons: Identified as a resistance that aligns with a 127.2% Fibonacci extension, indicating a potential level where selling pressures could intensify.

1st support: 21,525.30

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a key level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 22,237.83
Supporting reasons: Identified as a resistance that aligns with a 161.8% Fibonacci extension, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

US500 (S&P 500): 

Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

Price could fall towards the pivot and potentially make a bullish bounce to rise towards the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 6,039.40

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential level where buying interests could pick up to resume the uptrend.

1st support: 5,923.40

Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi-swing-low support that aligns close to a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 6,123.30

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-high resistance that aligns close to the all-time high, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

BTC/USD (Bitcoin):

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price has made a bearish reversal off the pivot and could potentially fall towards the 1st support.

Pivot: 98,903.64

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, indicating a potential level where selling pressures could intensify.

1st support: 92,857.02
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-low support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 101,963.41
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

ETH/USD (Ethereum):

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price could rise towards the pivot and potentially make a bearish reversal off this level to fall towards the 1st support.

Pivot: 2,901.68

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance that aligns with a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential level where selling pressures could intensify.

1st support: 2,472.17
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-low support that aligns close to a 50% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 3,431.60
Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi-swing-high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

WTI/USD (Oil):

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price could rise towards the pivot and potentially make a bearish reversal off this level to fall towards the 1st support.

Pivot: 72.80
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify.

1st support: 70.96
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns with a 78.6% Fibonacci projection, indicating a key level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 73.85
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

XAU/USD (GOLD):

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

Price could potentially make a bullish bounce off the pivot and rise toward the 1st resistance 

Pivot: 2828.06

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where buying interests could pick up to stage a rebound. 

1st support: 2776.07

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential level where price could find support once again.

1st resistance: 2881.25

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

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The post Friday 7th February 2025: Technical Outlook and Review first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

Full Article

IC Markets Asia Fundamental Forecast | 7 February 2025
IC Markets Asia Fundamental Forecast | 7 February 2025

IC Markets Asia Fundamental Forecast | 7 February 2025

411844   February 7, 2025 11:14   ICMarkets   Market News  

IC Markets Asia Fundamental Forecast | 7 February 2025

What happened in the U.S. session?

Following a pause at December’s board meeting, the Bank of England (BoE) reduced its official bank rate by 25 basis points (bps) to bring it down to 4.50% in line with market expectations. The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted by a majority of 7–2 to reduce the Bank Rate by 0.25 bps while two members preferred to reduce it by 50 bps. With inflationary pressures progressing towards the target of 2% and the growth forecast for 2025 significantly downgraded, it paved the way for this central bank to cut rates at the first board meeting of 2025. The Pound had weakened in early Thursday as Cable tumbled under 1.2400. However, it stabilized around 1.2360 before climbing strongly to hit an overnight high of 1.2455 as the BoE conveyed a patient outlook concerning future monetary policy action, noting that inflation is following a bumpy path.

What does it mean for the Asia Session?

As Asian markets digest the BoE’s latest actions and the ongoing trade tensions, safe-haven assets like gold are likely to remain supported. Spot gold was rising strongly towards the all-time high of $2,882.27/oz that was recorded this Wednesday while crude oil prices appear to have found a temporary floor. WTI oil found its footing around $70 per barrel and was edging higher during this session.

The Dollar Index (DXY)

Key news events today

BLS Employment Report (1:30 pm GMT)

What can we expect from DXY today?

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will release its employment report for January where non-farm payrolls (NFPs) are expected to add 169K jobs to the economy while the unemployment rate remains unchanged at 4.1%. Following a strong rebound in NFPs in the final two months of last year and a robust showing in Wednesday’s ADP private payrolls, markets will be looking to see if this hiring momentum will continue in the latest BLS report. Whatever the outcome, financial markets will no doubt experience extreme volatility following the release of this report.

Central Bank Notes:

  • The Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System voted unanimously to maintain the Federal Funds Rate in a target range of 4.25 to 4.50% on 29 January.
  • The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2% over the longer run and judges that the risks to achieving its employment and inflation goals are roughly in balance. The economic outlook is uncertain, and the Committee is attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate.
  • Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace while the unemployment rate has stabilized at a low level in recent months, and labour market conditions remain solid. However, inflation remains somewhat elevated.
  • December’s Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) now indicates just two rate cuts in 2025 totalling 50 bps, compared to the full percentage point of reductions projected in the previous quarter.
  • GDP growth forecasts were revised upward for 2024 (2.5% vs. 2% in the September projection) and 2025 (2.1% vs. 2%), while remaining steady at 2% for 2026. Similarly, PCE inflation projections have been adjusted higher for 2024 (2.4% vs. 2.3%), 2025 (2.5% vs. 2.1%), and 2026 (2.1% vs. 2%).
  • In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook and would be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of the Committee’s goals.
  • The Committee will roll over at auction the amount of principal payments from the Federal Reserve’s holdings of Treasury securities maturing in each calendar month that exceeds a cap of $25 billion per month and redeem Treasury coupon securities up to this monthly cap and Treasury bills to the extent that coupon principal payments are less than the monthly cap.
  • In addition, the Committee will reinvest the amount of principal payments from the Federal Reserve’s holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS) received in each calendar month that exceeds a cap of $35 billion per month into Treasury securities to roughly match the maturity composition of Treasury securities outstanding.
  • The next meeting runs from 18 to 19 March 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish


Gold (XAU)

Key news events today

BLS Employment Report (1:30 pm GMT)

What can we expect from Gold today?

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will release its employment report for January where non-farm payrolls (NFPs) are expected to add 169K jobs to the economy while the unemployment rate remains unchanged at 4.1%. Following a strong rebound in NFPs in the final two months of last year and a robust showing in Wednesday’s ADP private payrolls, markets will be looking to see if this hiring momentum will continue in the latest BLS report. Whatever the outcome, financial markets will no doubt experience extreme volatility following the release of this report.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bullish


The Australian Dollar (AUD)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from AUD today?

It is a quiet calendar for the Aussie but this currency pair will likely spring into life later today with the release of the BLS employment report during the U.S. session.

Central Bank Notes:

  • The RBA kept the cash rate target unchanged at 4.35% on 10 December, marking the ninth consecutive pause.
  • Inflation has fallen substantially since the peak in 2022, as higher interest rates have been working to bring aggregate demand and supply closer towards balance. However, measures of underlying inflation are around 3.5%, which is still some way from the 2.5% midpoint of the inflation target.
  • The most recent forecasts published in the November Statement on Monetary Policy (SMP) do not see inflation returning sustainably to the midpoint of the target until 2026 but the Board is gaining some confidence that inflationary pressures are declining in line with these recent forecasts with risks remaining in place.
  • Growth in output has been weak as the economy grew by only 0.8% in the September quarter over the past year. Outside of the COVID-19 pandemic, this was the slowest pace of growth since the early 1990s.
  • A range of indicators suggest that labour market conditions remain tight; while those conditions have been easing gradually, some indicators have recently stabilised. The unemployment rate was 4.1 per cent in October, up from 3.5 per cent in late 2022.
  • Wage pressures have eased more than expected in the November SMP. The rate of wage growth as measured by the Wage Price Index was 3.5% over the year to the September quarter, a step down from the previous quarter, but labour productivity growth remains weak.
  • Sustainably returning inflation to target within a reasonable timeframe remains the Board’s highest priority. This is consistent with the RBA’s mandate for price stability and full employment. To date, longer-term inflation expectations have been consistent with the inflation target and it is important that this remains the case.
  • The Board will continue to rely upon the data and the evolving assessment of risks to guide its decisions, paying close attention to developments in the global economy and financial markets, trends in domestic demand, and the outlook for inflation and the labour market.
  • The next meeting is on 18 February 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bearish


The Kiwi Dollar (NZD)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from NZD today?

Like its Pacific neighbour, the Kiwi could face a relatively quiet trading environment during the Asian and European trading hours before markets are jolted into action as the non-farm payrolls report is dropped during the U.S. session.

Central Bank Notes:

  • The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) agreed to reduce the Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 50 basis points bringing it down to 4.25% on 27 November, marking the third consecutive rate cut.
  • The Committee assessed that annual consumer price inflation has declined and is now close to the midpoint of the MPC’s 1 to 3% target band; inflation expectations are also close to target and core inflation is converging to the midpoint.
  • Economic activity remains subdued and output continues to be below its potential. With excess productive capacity in the economy, inflation pressures have eased. If economic conditions continue to evolve as projected, the Committee expects to be able to lower the OCR further early next year.
  • Domestic economic activity remains below trend, as a result of weakness in demand for durable goods consumption and investment. This has been reflected in falling activity in interest rate sensitive sectors such as construction, manufacturing, and retail trade. In contrast, some service sectors have continued to grow.
  • Consistent with feedback from business visits, high-frequency indicators suggest that the economy has stabilised in recent months. Economic growth is expected to recover from the December quarter, in part due to lower interest rates, but there is uncertainty around the exact timing and speed of the recovery.
  • Wage growth is slowing, consistent with inflation returning to the target midpoint while employment levels and job vacancies have declined, reflecting subdued economic activity; unemployment is expected to continue rising in the near term.
  • Expectations of future inflation, the pricing intentions of firms, and spare productive capacity are consistent with the inflation target being sustainably achieved, providing the context and the confidence for the Committee to ease monetary policy restraint further.
  • The next meeting is on 19 February 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bearish


The Japanese Yen (JPY)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from JPY today?

Demand for the yen remains intact with hawkish expectations from the BoJ arising from a combination of robust wage growth and persistent inflation in Japan. USD/JPY dived under 151.50 overnight and this currency pair is all but certain to register a fourth successive week of decline.

Central Bank Notes:

  • The Policy Board of the Bank of Japan decided on 24 January, by an 8-1 majority vote, to set the following guidelines for money market operations for the inter-meeting period:
    1. The Bank will encourage the uncollateralized overnight call rate to remain at around 0.5%.
    2. The Bank will embark on a plan to reduce the amount of its monthly outright purchases of JGBs so that it will be about 3 trillion yen in January-March 2026; the amount will be cut down by about 400 billion yen each calendar quarter in principle.
  • Japan’s economy has recovered moderately, although some weakness has been seen in part. Exports and industrial production have been more or less flat while corporate profits have been on an improving trend and business sentiment has stayed at a favourable level.
  • The employment and income situation has improved moderately while private consumption has been on a moderately increasing trend despite the impact of price rises and other factors.
  • On the price front, the year-on-year rate of increase in the consumer price index (CPI, all items less fresh food) has been at around 3% recently, as services prices have continued to rise moderately, reflecting factors such as wage increases, although the effects of a pass-through to consumer prices of cost increases led by the past rise in import prices have waned.
  • Inflation expectations have risen moderately while underlying CPI inflation has been increasing gradually toward the price stability target of 2%. With wages continuing to rise, there has been an increase in moves to reflect higher costs, such as increased personnel expenses and distribution costs, in selling prices.
  • Japan’s economy is likely to keep growing at a pace above its potential growth rate, with overseas economies continuing to grow moderately and as a virtuous cycle from income to spending gradually intensifies against the background of factors such as accommodative financial conditions.
  • The next meeting is on 19 March 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish


The Euro (EUR)

Key news events today

Germany Industrial Production (7:00 am GMT)

What can we expect from EUR today?

Industrial production declined by 3% overall in 2024 as the manufacturing sector remained in contraction for most of the year with energy-intensive industries facing significant challenges. November’s production output had increased by 1.5% MoM, beating forecasts of 0.5%, but December’s forecast points to a decline of 0.7% MoM. The Euro has appreciated in the first week of February but further significant deterioration in industrial production could weigh on this currency.

Central Bank Notes:

  • The Governing Council reduced the three key ECB interest rates by 25 basis points on 30 January to mark the fourth successive rate cut.
  • Accordingly, the interest rate on the main refinancing operations and the interest rates on the marginal lending facility and the deposit facility will be decreased to 2.90%, 3.15% and 2.75% respectively.
  • The disinflation process is well on track and inflation is set to return to the Governing Council’s 2% medium-term target in the course of this year. Most measures of underlying inflation suggest that inflation will settle at around the target on a sustained basis.
  • Staff see headline inflation averaging 2.4% in 2024, 2.1% in 2025, 1.9% in 2026 and 2.1% in 2027 when the expanded EU Emissions Trading System becomes operational. For inflation excluding energy and food, staff project an average of 2.9% in 2024, 2.3% in 2025 and 1.9% in both 2026 and 2027.
  • Staff now expect a slower economic recovery than in the September projections. Although growth picked up in the third quarter of this year, survey indicators suggest it has slowed in the current quarter – the economy is expected to grow by 0.7% in 2024, 1.1% in 2025, 1.4% in 2026 and 1.3% in 2027
  • The asset purchase programme (APP) and pandemic emergency purchase programme (PEPP) portfolios are declining at a measured and predictable pace, as the Eurosystem no longer reinvests the principal payments from maturing securities.
  • The Governing Council stands ready to adjust all of its instruments within its mandate to ensure that inflation stabilises sustainably at its 2% target over the medium term and to preserve the smooth functioning of monetary policy transmission.
  • The next meeting is on 6 March 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bearish


The Swiss Franc (CHF)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from CHF today?

Demand for the franc waned on Wednesday as USD/CHF found its footing just above the threshold of 0.9000 to rise to a high of 0.9061 on Thursday. This currency pair should continue to climb higher on Friday but is poised to close the week in the red.

Central Bank Notes:

  • The SNB eased monetary policy by lowering its key policy rate by 50 basis points, going from 1.00% to 0.50% on 12 December, marking the fourth consecutive reduction.
  • Underlying inflationary pressure has decreased again this quarter.
  • Inflation in the period since the last monetary policy assessment has again been lower than expected as it decreased from 1.1% in August to 0.7% in November; both goods and services contributed to this decline.
  • In the shorter term, the new conditional inflation forecast is below that of September: 1.1% for 2024, 0.3% for 2025 and 0.8% for 2026, based on the assumption that the SNB policy rate is 0.5% over the entire forecast horizon.
  • GDP growth in Switzerland was only modest in the third quarter of 2024 with growth in the services sector again somewhat stronger, while value added in manufacturing declined.
  • There was a further slight increase in unemployment, and employment growth was subdued while the utilisation of overall production capacity was
  • normal.
  • The SNB anticipates GDP growth of around 1% this year while currently expecting growth of between 1.0% and 1.5% for 2025.
  • The SNB will continue to monitor the situation closely and will adjust its monetary policy if necessary to ensure inflation remains within the range consistent with price stability over the medium term.
  • The next meeting is on 20 March 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish


The Pound (GBP)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from GBP today?

Following a pause at December’s board meeting, the Bank of England (BoE) reduced its official bank rate by 25 basis points (bps) to bring it down to 4.50% in line with market expectations. The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted by a majority of 7–2 to reduce the Bank Rate by 0.25 bps while two members preferred to reduce it by 50 bps. With inflationary pressures progressing towards the target of 2% and the growth forecast for 2025 significantly downgraded, it paved the way for this central bank to cut rates at the first board meeting of 2025. The Pound had weakened in early Thursday as Cable tumbled under 1.2400. However, it stabilized around 1.2360 before climbing strongly to hit an overnight high of 1.2455 as the BoE conveyed a patient outlook concerning future monetary policy action, noting that inflation is following a bumpy path.

Central Bank Notes:

  • The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted by a majority of 7 to 2 to reduce the Bank Rate by 25 basis points (bps) to bring it down to 4.50% on 6 February 2025, while two members preferred to reduce it by 50 bps.
  • The MPC also voted unanimously to reduce the stock of UK government bond purchases held for monetary policy purposes and financed by the issuance of central bank reserves, by £100B over the next 12 months to a total of £558B, starting in October 2024. On 18 December 2024, the stock of UK government bonds held for monetary policy purposes was £655B.
  • CPI inflation was 2.5% in 2024 Q4 as domestic inflationary pressures moderated but remained somewhat elevated while some indicators eased more slowly than expected. Higher global energy costs and regulated price changes are expected to push up headline CPI inflation to 3.7% in 2025 Q3, even as underlying domestic inflationary pressures are expected to wane further.
  • While CPI inflation is expected to fall back to around the 2% target thereafter, the Committee will pay close attention to any consequent signs of more lasting inflationary pressures..
  • GDP growth has been weaker than expected at the time of the November Monetary Policy Report, and indicators of business and consumer confidence have declined – GDP growth is expected to pick up from the middle of this year.
  • The labour market has continued to ease and is judged to be broadly in balance. Productivity growth has been weaker than previously estimated, and the Committee judges that growth in the supply capacity of the economy has weakened.
  • Based on the Committee’s evolving view of the medium-term outlook for inflation, a gradual and careful approach to the further withdrawal of monetary policy restraint is appropriate and it will continue to monitor closely the risks of inflation persistence and what the evolving evidence may reveal about the balance between aggregate supply and demand in the economy.
  • Monetary policy will need to continue to remain restrictive for sufficiently long until the risks to inflation returning sustainably to the 2% target in the medium term have dissipated further and the Committee will decide the appropriate degree of monetary policy restrictiveness at each meeting.
  • The next meeting is on 8 May 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bearish


The Canadian Dollar (CAD)

Key news events today

Labour Force Report (1:30 pm GMT)

What can we expect from CAD today?

Canada will release its equivalent of the U.S. non-farm payrolls at the same time as its neighbour to the south. Despite a weak economy and rising unemployment, job growth rebounded strongly as 91K jobs were added to the economy in December. However, January’s forecasts point to a significant slowdown in the pace of job creation while the unemployment rate is anticipated to edge higher from 6.7% to 6.8%. The Loonie will no doubt face extreme volatility during the U.S. session.

Central Bank Notes:

  • The Bank of Canada reduced its target for the overnight rate by 25 basis points bringing it down to 3% on 29 January; this marked the sixth consecutive meeting where rates were reduced.
  • The bank announced its plan to complete the normalization of its balance sheet, ending quantitative tightening, and will restart asset purchases in early March, beginning gradually so that its balance sheet stabilizes and then grows modestly, in line with growth in the economy.
  • Past cuts to interest rates have started to boost the economy and the recent strengthening in both consumption and housing activity is expected to continue. However, business investment remains weak while the outlook for exports is being supported by new export capacity for oil and gas.
  • The Bank forecasts GDP growth will strengthen in 2025 and now projects GDP will grow by 1.8% in both 2025 and 2026, somewhat higher than potential growth.
  • The labour market remains soft, with the unemployment rate at 6.7% in December. Job growth has strengthened in recent months, after lagging growth in the labour force for more than a year. Wage pressures, which have proven sticky, are showing some signs of easing.
  • CPI inflation remains close to 2%, with some volatility due to the temporary suspension of the GST/HST on some consumer products. Shelter price inflation is still elevated but it is easing gradually, as expected
  • A broad range of indicators, including surveys of inflation expectations and the distribution of price changes among components of the CPI, suggests that underlying inflation is close to 2% with forecasts that CPI inflation will be around the 2% target over the next two years.
  • With inflation around 2%, the economy in excess supply, and recent indicators tilted towards softer growth than projected, the Governing Council decided to reduce the policy rate a further 25 basis points to support growth and keep inflation close to the middle of the 1-3% target range.
  • The cumulative reduction in the policy rate since last June is substantial as lower interest rates are boosting household spending and the economy is expected to strengthen gradually and inflation to stay close to target. However, if broad-based and significant tariffs were imposed, the resilience of Canada’s economy would be tested.
  • The Bank is committed to maintaining price stability for Canadians by keeping inflation close to the 2% target.
  • The next meeting is on 12 March 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish


Oil

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from Oil today?

Escalating global trade tensions coupled with rising U.S. inventories will ensure that crude oil prices will notch its third consecutive week of decline. WTI oil has shed over 8.5% over this period as it hovered around $70.50 per barrel as Asian markets came online on Friday – overhead pressures for this commodity are likely to persist as the final trading day comes to a close.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish


The post IC Markets Asia Fundamental Forecast | 7 February 2025 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

Full Article

General Market Analysis – 07/02/25
General Market Analysis – 07/02/25

General Market Analysis – 07/02/25

411841   February 7, 2025 08:14   ICMarkets   Market News  

US Markets Mixed Ahead of Non-Farms – Nasdaq Up 0.5%

US stock indices experienced a mixed day in choppy trading yesterday, as investors continued to digest earnings updates and looked ahead to today’s key employment figures. The Dow closed down 0.28%, while the S&P and Nasdaq finished the day in positive territory, closing up 0.36% and 0.51%, respectively.

US Treasury yields regained some of their recent losses, with the 2-year yield adding 2.7 basis points to rise to 4.214%, while the benchmark 10-year yield gained 1.8 basis points, reaching 4.436%. The dollar also strengthened, with major currencies retreating into recent ranges, as the DXY edged up 0.1% to 107.69.

Oil prices declined once again after former President Trump reiterated his intention to increase US production, with Brent falling 0.51% to $74.23 and WTI down 0.72% to $70.52 per barrel. Gold pulled back from recent record highs but remains elevated, closing 0.41% lower on the day at $2,855.07.

Non-Farms in Focus for FX Traders Today

Traders are preparing for a classic Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) day, with the primary market focus shifting to the employment report shortly after the New York open. While geopolitical developments have dominated market flows this week, today’s US jobs data is expected to be the key driver of sentiment, providing insight into the Federal Reserve’s next move on interest rates.

The dollar has faced significant pressure this week as concerns over tariffs receded. However, strong jobs data could dampen expectations of Fed rate cuts, potentially pushing the dollar higher. Last month’s robust 256k NFP print surprised the market, and a similar result today could have an even greater impact. The consensus forecast anticipates a 169k print, but any figure exceeding 200k could trigger a sharp dollar rally, reversing recent losses.

Calm Markets Ahead of the Non-Farm Storm

Today’s market focus is firmly on US employment data, with trading expected to remain subdued in the early sessions before volatility picks up after the New York open. Market activity was relatively muted in the final session yesterday, particularly compared to the turbulence seen earlier in the week, setting the stage for a quiet Asian session with rangebound conditions.

There are no significant economic releases in the European session, meaning traders will be looking ahead to the key US data. Expectations are for the headline NFP to show an increase of 169k jobs last month, with the unemployment rate remaining steady at 4.1% and average hourly earnings rising by 0.3% month-on-month. Any significant deviation from these expectations is likely to trigger sharp market movements.

Canadian employment data will also be released alongside the US report, but aside from its impact on CAD traders, it is expected to be largely overshadowed as the market remains focused on the US jobs figures.

The post General Market Analysis – 07/02/25 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

Full Article

Trade the Euro on the US Employment Data

Trade the Euro on the US Employment Data

411838   February 7, 2025 08:00   ICMarkets   Market News  

Key US employment numbers are set to be released later today, and traders are bracing for significant market movements in response. While geopolitical issues have dominated market flows this week, the focus is shifting to fundamentals as traders seek guidance on the Federal Reserve’s next interest rate cut. With little else on the economic calendar in recent trading sessions, the impact of the data could be magnified, especially if the figures deviate significantly from expectations.

The market expects the headline Non-Farm Employment Change figure to show an increase of 169,000 jobs last month, with the Unemployment Rate holding steady at 4.1% and Average Hourly Earnings rising by 0.3%. Any deviation of ±30,000 jobs from the forecast could trigger substantial market moves.

The Euro is currently trading near key technical levels, presenting strong trading opportunities following the data release. It has been trending toward the upper end of its recent range after the dollar weakened for most of the week, but that could change swiftly tonight. A weaker-than-expected jobs report could see recent highs and trendline resistance on the hourly chart tested quickly, while a stronger report would likely push the pair back into its range, targeting the annual lows seen on Monday.

Key Levels to Watch:

Resistance:

  • 1.0532 – 2025 High
  • 1.0466 – Trendline Resistance

Support:

  • 1.0350 – Overnight Low
  • 1.0142 – Trendline Support and 2025 Low

The post Trade the Euro on the US Employment Data first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

Full Article

Ex-Dividend 7/2/2025
Ex-Dividend 7/2/2025

Ex-Dividend 7/2/2025

411806   February 6, 2025 16:39   ICMarkets   Market News  

1
Ex-Dividends
2
07/02/2025
3
Indices Name
Index Adjustment Points
4
Australia 200 CFD
AUS200
5
IBEX-35 Index ES35
6
France 40 CFD F40
7
Hong Kong 50 CFD
HK50
8
Italy 40 CFD IT40
9
Japan 225 CFD
JP225
10
EU Stocks 50 CFD
STOXX50
11
UK 100 CFD UK100
12
US SP 500 CFD
US500 0.40
13
Wall Street CFD
US30
14
US Tech 100 CFD
USTEC 1.16
15
FTSE CHINA 50
CHINA50
16
Canada 60 CFD
CA60
17
Germany Tech 40 CFD
TecDE30
18
Germany Mid 50 CFD
MidDE50
19
Netherlands 25 CFD
NETH25
20
Switzerland 20 CFD
SWI20
21
Hong Kong China H-shares CFD
CHINAH
22
Norway 25 CFD
NOR25
23
South Africa 40 CFD
SA40
24
Sweden 30 CFD
SE30
25
US 2000 CFD US2000 0.10

The post Ex-Dividend 7/2/2025 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

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Thursday 6th February 2025: Asia-Pacific Markets Rise as Wall Street Extends Gains
Thursday 6th February 2025: Asia-Pacific Markets Rise as Wall Street Extends Gains

Thursday 6th February 2025: Asia-Pacific Markets Rise as Wall Street Extends Gains

411801   February 6, 2025 14:14   ICMarkets   Market News  

Global Markets:

  •  Asian Stock Markets : Nikkei up 0.52%, Shanghai Composite up 0.83%, Hang Seng up 0.63% ASX up 1.23%
  • Commodities : Gold at $2887.35 (-0.23%), Silver at $32.75 (-0.78%), Brent Oil at $74.79 (0.19%), WTI Oil at $71.24 (0.23%)
  • Rates : US 10-year yield at 4.429, UK 10-year yield at 4.435, Germany 10-year yield at 2.359

News & Data:

  • (USD) ISM Services PMI  52.8 vs 54.2 expected
  • (USD) Final Services PMI  52.9 vs 52.9 expected

Markets Update:

Asia-Pacific markets traded mostly higher on Thursday, following Wall Street’s gains as investors brushed off trade concerns and weak U.S. tech earnings. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 climbed 1.14%, while Japan’s Nikkei 225 rose 0.46% and the Topix added 0.3%. South Korea’s Kospi advanced 0.93%, with the Kosdaq up 1.09%. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index edged 0.31% higher, while China’s CSI 300 gained 0.14%.

India’s markets saw mixed performance, with the Nifty 50 slipping 0.16% and the BSE Sensex trading flat. Investors are closely watching India’s central bank, which is expected to cut interest rates in its policy meeting to boost the slowing economy. The decision will be announced on Friday.

On Wall Street, major U.S. indexes posted their second consecutive day of gains, despite sharp declines in Alphabet and AMD following weak earnings. The Dow Jones Industrial Average jumped 317.24 points (0.71%) to 44,873.28, driven by a rally in Nvidia. The S&P 500 gained 0.39% to close at 6,061.48, while the Nasdaq Composite added 0.19% to 19,692.33.

Nvidia soared over 5% after Super Micro Computer announced the full-scale production of AI data centers using Nvidia’s Blackwell platform. As a result, Super Micro’s stock surged 8%. Despite ongoing volatility, investors remain optimistic about technology-driven growth and central bank policies shaping global markets.

Upcoming Events: 

  • 12:00 PM GMT – GBP Official Bank Rate
  • 01:30 PM GMT – USD Unemployment Claims

The post Thursday 6th February 2025: Asia-Pacific Markets Rise as Wall Street Extends Gains first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

Full Article

IC Markets Europe Fundamental Forecast | 6 February 2025
IC Markets Europe Fundamental Forecast | 6 February 2025

IC Markets Europe Fundamental Forecast | 6 February 2025

411800   February 6, 2025 14:14   ICMarkets   Market News  

IC Markets Europe Fundamental Forecast | 6 February 2025

What happened in the Asia session?

With no major news events, the dollar index (DXY) hovered above 107.50 while spot prices for gold retreated away from Wednesday’s all-time high of $2,882.27/oz to drift around $2,870/oz. Meanwhile, crude oil prices were somewhat unchanged as WTI oil remained under $72 per barrel.

What does it mean for the Europe & US sessions?

Following a pause at December’s board meeting, the Bank of England (BoE) is now widely expected to reduce its official bank rate by 25 basis points (bps) to bring it down to 4.50%. Although inflation remains above the BoE’s target of 2%, the combination of a weakening labour market and ‘softer’ GDP activity have nudged this central bank toward a dovish action at the first meeting of 2025. The pound is likely to depreciate going into the announcement but it could remain steady should the statement project a balanced view with regards to the outlook on future monetary policy action.

PMI activity in Canada has expanded steadily in the last quarter of 2024 as output rose from 52.3 in the previous month to 54.7 in December. January’s estimate of 53.0 points to another month of solid growth and could provide an additional boost for the Loonie which has appreciated strongly this week.

The Dollar Index (DXY)

Key news events today

Unemployment Claims (1:30 pm GMT)

FOMC Member Waller’s Speech (7:30 pm GMT)

What can we expect from DXY today?

Unemployment claims have moderated lower over the past eight weeks to highlight stability in the U.S. labour market. After falling to 207K last week, claims are expected to edge higher to 214K but would remain under the 12-week average of 218K, potentially functioning as a near-term bullish catalyst for the dollar. Later on, Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller will be speaking about the future of payments at the Atlantic Council’s Global Headquarters in Washington D.C. where audience questions are expected. Following last week’s FOMC meeting where the Fed maintained rates at current levels following three successive cuts in late 2024, market participants will be looking to see if Governor Waller will drop any clues on future monetary policy action.

Central Bank Notes:

  • The Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System voted unanimously to maintain the Federal Funds Rate in a target range of 4.25 to 4.50% on 29 January.
  • The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2% over the longer run and judges that the risks to achieving its employment and inflation goals are roughly in balance. The economic outlook is uncertain, and the Committee is attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate.
  • Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace while the unemployment rate has stabilized at a low level in recent months, and labour market conditions remain solid. However, inflation remains somewhat elevated.
  • December’s Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) now indicates just two rate cuts in 2025 totalling 50 bps, compared to the full percentage point of reductions projected in the previous quarter.
  • GDP growth forecasts were revised upward for 2024 (2.5% vs. 2% in the September projection) and 2025 (2.1% vs. 2%), while remaining steady at 2% for 2026. Similarly, PCE inflation projections have been adjusted higher for 2024 (2.4% vs. 2.3%), 2025 (2.5% vs. 2.1%), and 2026 (2.1% vs. 2%).
  • In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook and would be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of the Committee’s goals.
  • The Committee will roll over at auction the amount of principal payments from the Federal Reserve’s holdings of Treasury securities maturing in each calendar month that exceeds a cap of $25 billion per month and redeem Treasury coupon securities up to this monthly cap and Treasury bills to the extent that coupon principal payments are less than the monthly cap.
  • In addition, the Committee will reinvest the amount of principal payments from the Federal Reserve’s holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS) received in each calendar month that exceeds a cap of $35 billion per month into Treasury securities to roughly match the maturity composition of Treasury securities outstanding.
  • The next meeting runs from 18 to 19 March 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bearish


Gold (XAU)

Key news events today

Unemployment Claims (1:30 pm GMT)

FOMC Member Waller’s Speech (7:30 pm GMT)

What can we expect from Gold today?

Unemployment claims have moderated lower over the past eight weeks to highlight stability in the U.S. labour market. After falling to 207K last week, claims are expected to edge higher to 214K but would remain under the 12-week average of 218K, potentially functioning as a near-term bullish catalyst for the dollar. Later on, Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller will be speaking about the future of payments at the Atlantic Council’s Global Headquarters in Washington D.C. where audience questions are expected. Following last week’s FOMC meeting where the Fed maintained rates at current levels following three successive cuts in late 2024, market participants will be looking to see if Governor Waller will drop any clues on future monetary policy action. Gold prices have been soaring this week making a new all-time high of $2,882.27/oz on Wednesday.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bullish


The Australian Dollar (AUD)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from AUD today?

The combination of disappointing domestic data, ongoing trade tensions, and China exposure creates a challenging environment for the Aussie. However, this currency pair has appreciated this week with demand for the greenback waning.

Central Bank Notes:

  • The RBA kept the cash rate target unchanged at 4.35% on 10 December, marking the ninth consecutive pause.
  • Inflation has fallen substantially since the peak in 2022, as higher interest rates have been working to bring aggregate demand and supply closer towards balance. However, measures of underlying inflation are around 3.5%, which is still some way from the 2.5% midpoint of the inflation target.
  • The most recent forecasts published in the November Statement on Monetary Policy (SMP) do not see inflation returning sustainably to the midpoint of the target until 2026 but the Board is gaining some confidence that inflationary pressures are declining in line with these recent forecasts with risks remaining in place.
  • Growth in output has been weak as the economy grew by only 0.8% in the September quarter over the past year. Outside of the COVID-19 pandemic, this was the slowest pace of growth since the early 1990s.
  • A range of indicators suggest that labour market conditions remain tight; while those conditions have been easing gradually, some indicators have recently stabilised. The unemployment rate was 4.1 per cent in October, up from 3.5 per cent in late 2022.
  • Wage pressures have eased more than expected in the November SMP. The rate of wage growth as measured by the Wage Price Index was 3.5% over the year to the September quarter, a step down from the previous quarter, but labour productivity growth remains weak.
  • Sustainably returning inflation to target within a reasonable timeframe remains the Board’s highest priority. This is consistent with the RBA’s mandate for price stability and full employment. To date, longer-term inflation expectations have been consistent with the inflation target and it is important that this remains the case.
  • The Board will continue to rely upon the data and the evolving assessment of risks to guide its decisions, paying close attention to developments in the global economy and financial markets, trends in domestic demand, and the outlook for inflation and the labour market.
  • The next meeting is on 18 February 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bullish


The Kiwi Dollar (NZD)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from NZD today?

Despite Wednesday’s ‘soft’ labour market data, the Kiwi held up well as demand for the U.S. dollar tapered off. This currency pair was hovering around 0.5680 at the beginning of the Asia session.

Central Bank Notes:

  • The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) agreed to reduce the Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 50 basis points bringing it down to 4.25% on 27 November, marking the third consecutive rate cut.
  • The Committee assessed that annual consumer price inflation has declined and is now close to the midpoint of the MPC’s 1 to 3% target band; inflation expectations are also close to target and core inflation is converging to the midpoint.
  • Economic activity remains subdued and output continues to be below its potential. With excess productive capacity in the economy, inflation pressures have eased. If economic conditions continue to evolve as projected, the Committee expects to be able to lower the OCR further early next year.
  • Domestic economic activity remains below trend, as a result of weakness in demand for durable goods consumption and investment. This has been reflected in falling activity in interest rate sensitive sectors such as construction, manufacturing, and retail trade. In contrast, some service sectors have continued to grow.
  • Consistent with feedback from business visits, high-frequency indicators suggest that the economy has stabilised in recent months. Economic growth is expected to recover from the December quarter, in part due to lower interest rates, but there is uncertainty around the exact timing and speed of the recovery.
  • Wage growth is slowing, consistent with inflation returning to the target midpoint while employment levels and job vacancies have declined, reflecting subdued economic activity; unemployment is expected to continue rising in the near term.
  • Expectations of future inflation, the pricing intentions of firms, and spare productive capacity are consistent with the inflation target being sustainably achieved, providing the context and the confidence for the Committee to ease monetary policy restraint further.
  • The next meeting is on 19 February 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bullish


The Japanese Yen (JPY)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from JPY today?

The combination of robust wage growth and hawkish BoJ expectations created a strongly bullish environment for the yen. In addition, the narrowing interest rate differential between Japan and the U.S. further supports yen strength as USD/JPY dived under 153.50 overnight. Overhead pressures are likely to persist for this currency pair for the remainder of this week.

Central Bank Notes:

  • The Policy Board of the Bank of Japan decided on 24 January, by an 8-1 majority vote, to set the following guidelines for money market operations for the inter-meeting period:
    1. The Bank will encourage the uncollateralized overnight call rate to remain at around 0.5%.
    2. The Bank will embark on a plan to reduce the amount of its monthly outright purchases of JGBs so that it will be about 3 trillion yen in January-March 2026; the amount will be cut down by about 400 billion yen each calendar quarter in principle.
  • Japan’s economy has recovered moderately, although some weakness has been seen in part. Exports and industrial production have been more or less flat while corporate profits have been on an improving trend and business sentiment has stayed at a favourable level.
  • The employment and income situation has improved moderately while private consumption has been on a moderately increasing trend despite the impact of price rises and other factors.
  • On the price front, the year-on-year rate of increase in the consumer price index (CPI, all items less fresh food) has been at around 3% recently, as services prices have continued to rise moderately, reflecting factors such as wage increases, although the effects of a pass-through to consumer prices of cost increases led by the past rise in import prices have waned.
  • Inflation expectations have risen moderately while underlying CPI inflation has been increasing gradually toward the price stability target of 2%. With wages continuing to rise, there has been an increase in moves to reflect higher costs, such as increased personnel expenses and distribution costs, in selling prices.
  • Japan’s economy is likely to keep growing at a pace above its potential growth rate, with overseas economies continuing to grow moderately and as a virtuous cycle from income to spending gradually intensifies against the background of factors such as accommodative financial conditions.
  • The next meeting is on 19 March 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bearish


The Euro (EUR)

Key news events today

Retail Sales (10:00 am GMT)

What can we expect from EUR today?

Consumer spending in the Euro Area has been weak over the last couple of months and sales figures for December are expected to decrease 0.1% MoM – this would mark the second decline in three months. However, the recent dollar weakness has helped to prop up the Euro as it hit an overnight high of 1.0442 on Wednesday.

Central Bank Notes:

  • The Governing Council reduced the three key ECB interest rates by 25 basis points on 30 January to mark the fourth successive rate cut.
  • Accordingly, the interest rate on the main refinancing operations and the interest rates on the marginal lending facility and the deposit facility will be decreased to 2.90%, 3.15% and 2.75% respectively.
  • The disinflation process is well on track and inflation is set to return to the Governing Council’s 2% medium-term target in the course of this year. Most measures of underlying inflation suggest that inflation will settle at around the target on a sustained basis.
  • Staff see headline inflation averaging 2.4% in 2024, 2.1% in 2025, 1.9% in 2026 and 2.1% in 2027 when the expanded EU Emissions Trading System becomes operational. For inflation excluding energy and food, staff project an average of 2.9% in 2024, 2.3% in 2025 and 1.9% in both 2026 and 2027.
  • Staff now expect a slower economic recovery than in the September projections. Although growth picked up in the third quarter of this year, survey indicators suggest it has slowed in the current quarter – the economy is expected to grow by 0.7% in 2024, 1.1% in 2025, 1.4% in 2026 and 1.3% in 2027
  • The asset purchase programme (APP) and pandemic emergency purchase programme (PEPP) portfolios are declining at a measured and predictable pace, as the Eurosystem no longer reinvests the principal payments from maturing securities.
  • The Governing Council stands ready to adjust all of its instruments within its mandate to ensure that inflation stabilises sustainably at its 2% target over the medium term and to preserve the smooth functioning of monetary policy transmission.
  • The next meeting is on 6 March 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bullish


The Swiss Franc (CHF)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from CHF today?

The franc has seen strong inflows due to potential global trade wars amidst heightened volatility causing USD/CHF to tumble over 2% this week. This currency pair is likely to remain under pressure as the day progresses.

Central Bank Notes:

  • The SNB eased monetary policy by lowering its key policy rate by 50 basis points, going from 1.00% to 0.50% on 12 December, marking the fourth consecutive reduction.
  • Underlying inflationary pressure has decreased again this quarter.
  • Inflation in the period since the last monetary policy assessment has again been lower than expected as it decreased from 1.1% in August to 0.7% in November; both goods and services contributed to this decline.
  • In the shorter term, the new conditional inflation forecast is below that of September: 1.1% for 2024, 0.3% for 2025 and 0.8% for 2026, based on the assumption that the SNB policy rate is 0.5% over the entire forecast horizon.
  • GDP growth in Switzerland was only modest in the third quarter of 2024 with growth in the services sector again somewhat stronger, while value added in manufacturing declined.
  • There was a further slight increase in unemployment, and employment growth was subdued while the utilisation of overall production capacity was
  • normal.
  • The SNB anticipates GDP growth of around 1% this year while currently expecting growth of between 1.0% and 1.5% for 2025.
  • The SNB will continue to monitor the situation closely and will adjust its monetary policy if necessary to ensure inflation remains within the range consistent with price stability over the medium term.
  • The next meeting is on 20 March 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bearish


The Pound (GBP)

Key news events today

S&P Construction PMI (9:30 am GMT)

BoE Monetary Policy Report (12:00 pm GMT)

What can we expect from GBP today?

Following strong output for most of 2024, construction activity eased to a six-month low of 53.3 in December. The slowdown was marked by weaker demand, higher borrowing costs and subdued consumer confidence. January’s estimate of 53.5 points to a somewhat unchanged figure, highlighting the softer pace of expansion for this sector.

Following a pause at December’s board meeting, the Bank of England (BoE) is now widely expected to reduce its official bank rate by 25 basis points (bps) to bring it down to 4.50%. Although inflation remains above the BoE’s target of 2%, the combination of a weakening labour market and ‘softer’ GDP activity have nudged this central bank toward a dovish action at the first meeting of 2025. The pound is likely to depreciate going into the announcement but it could remain steady should the statement project a balanced view with regards to the outlook on future monetary policy action.

Central Bank Notes:

  • The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted by a majority of 6 to 3 to maintain the Bank Rate at 4.75% on 19 December 2024 – three members preferred to reduce the Bank rate by 25 basis points, bringing it down to 4.50%.
  • The MPC also voted unanimously to reduce the stock of UK government bond purchases held for monetary policy purposes and financed by the issuance of central bank reserves, by £100B over the next 12 months to a total of £558B, starting in October 2024. On 18 December 2024, the stock of UK government bonds held for monetary policy purposes was £655B.
  • Twelve-month CPI inflation had increased to 2.6% in November from 1.7% in September, slightly higher than previous expectations while services consumer price inflation had remained elevated, at 5.0%, while core goods price inflation had risen to 1.1%.
  • Headline CPI inflation was slightly higher than previous expectations, owing in large part to stronger inflation in core goods and food, and is expected to continue to rise slightly in the near term.
  • Most indicators of UK near-term activity have declined with Bank staff expecting GDP growth to be weaker at the end of the year than originally projected in the November Monetary Policy Report.
  • Bank staff now expected zero GDP growth in 2024 Q4, weaker than the 0.3% that had been incorporated in the November Report, broadly consistent with the latest combined steer from business surveys and the available official data.
  • The Committee now judges that the labour market is broadly in balance as annual private sector regular average weekly earnings growth picked up quite sharply in the three months to October but there remains significant uncertainty around developments in the labour market.
  • Monetary policy has been guided by the need to squeeze remaining inflationary pressures out of the economy to achieve the 2% target both in a timely manner and on a lasting basis. Over recent quarters there has been progress in disinflation, particularly as previous external shocks have abated, although remaining domestic inflationary pressures are resolving more slowly.
  • The Committee continues to monitor closely the risks of inflation persistence and will assess the extent to which the evolving evidence is consistent with more constrained supply, which could sustain inflationary pressures, or with weaker demand, which could lead to the emergence of spare capacity in the economy and push down inflation; a gradual approach to removing monetary policy restraint remains appropriate.
  • Monetary policy will need to continue to remain restrictive for sufficiently long until the risks to inflation returning sustainably to the 2% target in the medium term have dissipated further and the Committee will decide the appropriate degree of monetary policy restrictiveness at each meeting.
  • The next meeting is on 6 February 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish


The Canadian Dollar (CAD)

Key news events today

Ivey PMI (3:00 pm GMT)

What can we expect from CAD today?

PMI activity in Canada has expanded steadily in the last quarter of 2024 as output rose from 52.3 in the previous month to 54.7 in December. January’s estimate of 53.0 points to another month of solid growth and could provide an additional boost for the Loonie which has appreciated strongly this week. USD/CAD has dived over 3% this week thus far and looks set to head even lower.

Central Bank Notes:

  • The Bank of Canada reduced its target for the overnight rate by 25 basis points bringing it down to 3% on 29 January; this marked the sixth consecutive meeting where rates were reduced.
  • The bank announced its plan to complete the normalization of its balance sheet, ending quantitative tightening, and will restart asset purchases in early March, beginning gradually so that its balance sheet stabilizes and then grows modestly, in line with growth in the economy.
  • Past cuts to interest rates have started to boost the economy and the recent strengthening in both consumption and housing activity is expected to continue. However, business investment remains weak while the outlook for exports is being supported by new export capacity for oil and gas.
  • The Bank forecasts GDP growth will strengthen in 2025 and now projects GDP will grow by 1.8% in both 2025 and 2026, somewhat higher than potential growth.
  • The labour market remains soft, with the unemployment rate at 6.7% in December. Job growth has strengthened in recent months, after lagging growth in the labour force for more than a year. Wage pressures, which have proven sticky, are showing some signs of easing.
  • CPI inflation remains close to 2%, with some volatility due to the temporary suspension of the GST/HST on some consumer products. Shelter price inflation is still elevated but it is easing gradually, as expected
  • A broad range of indicators, including surveys of inflation expectations and the distribution of price changes among components of the CPI, suggests that underlying inflation is close to 2% with forecasts that CPI inflation will be around the 2% target over the next two years.
  • With inflation around 2%, the economy in excess supply, and recent indicators tilted towards softer growth than projected, the Governing Council decided to reduce the policy rate a further 25 basis points to support growth and keep inflation close to the middle of the 1-3% target range.
  • The cumulative reduction in the policy rate since last June is substantial as lower interest rates are boosting household spending and the economy is expected to strengthen gradually and inflation to stay close to target. However, if broad-based and significant tariffs were imposed, the resilience of Canada’s economy would be tested.
  • The Bank is committed to maintaining price stability for Canadians by keeping inflation close to the 2% target.
  • The next meeting is on 12 March 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bearish


Oil

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from Oil today?

Similarly to the API stockpiles, the EIA inventories added a whopping 8.7M barrels of crude on Wednesday. Not only did storage levels swell for the second successive week, but the latest result was notably higher than the forecast of 2.4M barrels. Coupled with the recently developed concerns about a China-U.S. trade war fueling fears of sluggish economic growth, overhead pressures for this commodity remain firmly in place. WTI oil declined 2% on Wednesday as it dived as low as $70.98 per barrel – this benchmark was hovering above the $71 mark as Asian markets came online on Thursday.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bearish


The post IC Markets Europe Fundamental Forecast | 6 February 2025 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

Full Article

Thursday 6th February 2025: Technical Outlook and Review
Thursday 6th February 2025: Technical Outlook and Review

Thursday 6th February 2025: Technical Outlook and Review

411796   February 6, 2025 11:39   ICMarkets   Market News  

DXY (US Dollar Index):

Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish 

Price could potentially make a bullish bounce off the pivot and rise toward the 1st resistance 

Pivot: 107.13

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a potential area where buying interests could pick up to stage a rebound. 

1st support: 106.21
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential level where price could find support once more.

1st resistance: 107.90
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

EUR/USD:

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price could potentially make a bearish reversal off the pivot and fall toward the 1st support

Pivot: 1.0461

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance that aligns with the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify.

1st support: 1.0345

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a potential level where price could find support once again.

1st resistance: 1.0534
Supporting reasons:  Identified as a swing high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement. 

EUR/JPY:

Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price could potentially make a bullish bounce off the pivot and rise toward the 1st resistance 

Pivot: 157.60

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns with the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement and the 127.2% Fibonacci extension, indicating a potential area where buying interests could pick up to stage a rebound. 

1st support: 156.22

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing low support that aligns close to the 161.8%  Fibonacci extension, indicating a potential level where price could find support once more.

1st resistance: 159.68
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

EUR/GBP:

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price could potentially make a bearish reversal off the pivot and drop toward the 1st support

Pivot: 0.8356

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns close to the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify. 

1st support: 0.8272

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-low support that aligns close to the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential level where price could find support once again.

1st resistance: 0.8406
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance that aligns close to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

GBP/USD:

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price could potentially make a bearish reversal off the pivot and fall toward the 1st support

Pivot: 1.2609

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify.

1st support: 1.2474

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential level where price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 1.2718
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

GBP/JPY:

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price could potentially make a bearish reversal off the pivot and fall toward the 1st support

Pivot: 191.46

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify.

1st support: 189.61
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing low support, indicating a potential level where price could find support once again.

1st resistance: 193.19
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

USD/CHF:

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

Price could potentially make a bullish bounce off the pivot and rise toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 0.8916

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support that aligns close to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and the 127.2% Fibonacci extension, indicating a potential area where buying interests could pick up to stage a rebound.

1st support: 0.8806
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential level where price could find support once again.

1st resistance: 0.9031
Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi-swing high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

USD/JPY:

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price could potentially make a bullish bounce off the pivot and rise toward the 1st resistance 

Pivot: 151.11

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns close to the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement and the 100% Fibonacci projection, indicating a potential area where buying interests could pick up to stage a rebound. 

1st support: 149.55
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential level where price could find support once more.

1st resistance: 153.24
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

USD/CAD:

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price could rise towards the pivot and potentially make a bearish reversal off this level to fall towards the 1st support.

Pivot: 1.4356
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify.

1st support: 1.4279
Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi-swing-low support, indicating a key level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 1.4404
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance that aligns close to a 23.6% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

AUD/USD:

Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

Price could fall towards the pivot and potentially make a bullish bounce off this level to rise towards the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 0.6255

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support that aligns close to a 23.6% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential level where buying interests could pick to resume the uptrend.

1st support: 0.6185

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-low support that aligns close to a 50% Fibonacci retracement, suggesting a potential area where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 0.6323
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

NZD/USD

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

Price is rising towards the pivot and could potentially make a bearish reversal off this level to pull back towards the 1st support.

Pivot: 0.5716

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-high resistance, indicating a potential level where selling pressures could intensify.

1st support: 0.5628

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, suggesting a potential area where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 0.5781

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-high resistance that aligns with a 127.2% Fibonacci extension, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

US30 (DJIA):

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

Price is rising towards the pivot and could potentially make a bearish reversal off this level to pull back towards the 1st support.

Pivot: 45,078.54

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-high resistance that aligns close to the all-time high, indicating a potential level where selling pressures could intensify.

1st support: 43,819.77

Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi-swing-low support that aligns close to a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 45,779.82

Supporting reasons: Identified as a resistance that aligns with a 161.8% Fibonacci extension, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

DE40 (DAX):

Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

Price could fall towards the pivot and potentially make a bullish bounce to rise towards the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 21,525.30

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a potential level where buying interests could pick up to resume the uptrend.

1st support: 21,114.40

Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi-swing-low support, indicating a key level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 21,994.22
Supporting reasons: Identified as a resistance that aligns with a 127.2% Fibonacci extension, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

US500 (S&P 500): 

Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

Price could fall towards the pivot and potentially make a bullish bounce to rise towards the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 6,039.40

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a potential level where buying interests could pick up to resume the uptrend.

1st support: 5,923.40

Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi-swing-low support that aligns close to a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 6,123.30

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-high resistance that aligns close to the all-time high, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

BTC/USD (Bitcoin):

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price has made a bearish reversal off the pivot and could potentially fall towards the 1st support.

Pivot: 98,903.64

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, indicating a potential level where selling pressures could intensify.

1st support: 92,857.02
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-low support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 101,963.41
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

ETH/USD (Ethereum):

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price is rising towards the pivot and could potentially make a bearish reversal off this level to fall towards the 1st support.

Pivot: 2,901.68

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance that aligns with a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential level where selling pressures could intensify.

1st support: 2,472.17
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-low support that aligns close to a 50% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 3,431.60
Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi-swing-high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

WTI/USD (Oil):

Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price is trading close to the pivot and could potentially make a bullish bounce off this level to rise towards the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 71.58
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support that aligns close to a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where buying interests could pick up to stage a rebound.

1st support: 69.17
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a key level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 75.96
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns close to a 50% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

XAU/USD (GOLD):

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

Price could potentially make a bullish bounce off the pivot and rise toward the 1st resistance 

Pivot: 2828.06

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a potential area where buying interests could pick up to stage a rebound. 

1st support: 2776.07

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential level where price could find support once again.

1st resistance: 2881.25

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

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The post Thursday 6th February 2025: Technical Outlook and Review first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

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IC Markets Asia Fundamental Forecast | 6 February 2025
IC Markets Asia Fundamental Forecast | 6 February 2025

IC Markets Asia Fundamental Forecast | 6 February 2025

411794   February 6, 2025 11:14   ICMarkets   Market News  

IC Markets Asia Fundamental Forecast | 6 February 2025

What happened in the U.S. session?

After slowing in the final two months of 2024, the ADP Employment report showed private payrolls jumping by 183K in January as sectors such as trade, transportation, and utilities; leisure and hospitality; and education and health services led the gains while manufacturing shed jobs. Not only did the latest figures beat the forecast of 148K by a wide margin, but December’s payrolls were also revised significantly higher from 122K to 176K to highlight the fourth quarter’s hiring momentum.

Moving over to PMI output, services activity in the U.S. expanded for the seventh consecutive month as reported by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) with sub-indices such as new export orders and employment registering higher growth while business activity and new orders eased from the previous month. January’s print of 52.8 marked another month of expansion but it moderated lower from the previous month’s reading of 54.0. Despite the relatively strong set of U.S. macroeconomic data, the dollar index (DXY) remained on the back foot hitting an overnight low of 107.29 as fears of a global trade war abated for the present moment.

What does it mean for the Asia Session?

The combination of reduced U.S. trade tensions with Mexico and Canada, but escalating tensions with China, creates a mixed environment with gold likely to remain the primary beneficiary of the ongoing market uncertainty. Spot gold hit a new record price of $2,882.27/oz on Wednesday before pulling back slightly. This precious metal was hovering around $2,870/oz at the beginning of this session and is likely to remain elevated over the next couple of days.

The Dollar Index (DXY)

Key news events today

Unemployment Claims (1:30 pm GMT)

FOMC Member Waller’s Speech (7:30 pm GMT)

What can we expect from DXY today?

Unemployment claims have moderated lower over the past eight weeks to highlight stability in the U.S. labour market. After falling to 207K last week, claims are expected to edge higher to 214K but would remain under the 12-week average of 218K, potentially functioning as a near-term bullish catalyst for the dollar. Later on, Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller will be speaking about the future of payments at the Atlantic Council’s Global Headquarters in Washington D.C. where audience questions are expected. Following last week’s FOMC meeting where the Fed maintained rates at current levels following three successive cuts in late 2024, market participants will be looking to see if Governor Waller will drop any clues on future monetary policy action.

Central Bank Notes:

  • The Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System voted unanimously to maintain the Federal Funds Rate in a target range of 4.25 to 4.50% on 29 January.
  • The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2% over the longer run and judges that the risks to achieving its employment and inflation goals are roughly in balance. The economic outlook is uncertain, and the Committee is attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate.
  • Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace while the unemployment rate has stabilized at a low level in recent months, and labour market conditions remain solid. However, inflation remains somewhat elevated.
  • December’s Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) now indicates just two rate cuts in 2025 totalling 50 bps, compared to the full percentage point of reductions projected in the previous quarter.
  • GDP growth forecasts were revised upward for 2024 (2.5% vs. 2% in the September projection) and 2025 (2.1% vs. 2%), while remaining steady at 2% for 2026. Similarly, PCE inflation projections have been adjusted higher for 2024 (2.4% vs. 2.3%), 2025 (2.5% vs. 2.1%), and 2026 (2.1% vs. 2%).
  • In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook and would be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of the Committee’s goals.
  • The Committee will roll over at auction the amount of principal payments from the Federal Reserve’s holdings of Treasury securities maturing in each calendar month that exceeds a cap of $25 billion per month and redeem Treasury coupon securities up to this monthly cap and Treasury bills to the extent that coupon principal payments are less than the monthly cap.
  • In addition, the Committee will reinvest the amount of principal payments from the Federal Reserve’s holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS) received in each calendar month that exceeds a cap of $35 billion per month into Treasury securities to roughly match the maturity composition of Treasury securities outstanding.
  • The next meeting runs from 18 to 19 March 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bearish


Gold (XAU)

Key news events today

Unemployment Claims (1:30 pm GMT)

FOMC Member Waller’s Speech (7:30 pm GMT)

What can we expect from Gold today?

Unemployment claims have moderated lower over the past eight weeks to highlight stability in the U.S. labour market. After falling to 207K last week, claims are expected to edge higher to 214K but would remain under the 12-week average of 218K, potentially functioning as a near-term bullish catalyst for the dollar. Later on, Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller will be speaking about the future of payments at the Atlantic Council’s Global Headquarters in Washington D.C. where audience questions are expected. Following last week’s FOMC meeting where the Fed maintained rates at current levels following three successive cuts in late 2024, market participants will be looking to see if Governor Waller will drop any clues on future monetary policy action. Gold prices have been soaring this week making a new all-time high of $2,882.27/oz on Wednesday.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bullish


The Australian Dollar (AUD)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from AUD today?

The combination of disappointing domestic data, ongoing trade tensions, and China exposure creates a challenging environment for the Aussie. However, this currency pair has appreciated this week with demand for the greenback waning.

Central Bank Notes:

  • The RBA kept the cash rate target unchanged at 4.35% on 10 December, marking the ninth consecutive pause.
  • Inflation has fallen substantially since the peak in 2022, as higher interest rates have been working to bring aggregate demand and supply closer towards balance. However, measures of underlying inflation are around 3.5%, which is still some way from the 2.5% midpoint of the inflation target.
  • The most recent forecasts published in the November Statement on Monetary Policy (SMP) do not see inflation returning sustainably to the midpoint of the target until 2026 but the Board is gaining some confidence that inflationary pressures are declining in line with these recent forecasts with risks remaining in place.
  • Growth in output has been weak as the economy grew by only 0.8% in the September quarter over the past year. Outside of the COVID-19 pandemic, this was the slowest pace of growth since the early 1990s.
  • A range of indicators suggest that labour market conditions remain tight; while those conditions have been easing gradually, some indicators have recently stabilised. The unemployment rate was 4.1 per cent in October, up from 3.5 per cent in late 2022.
  • Wage pressures have eased more than expected in the November SMP. The rate of wage growth as measured by the Wage Price Index was 3.5% over the year to the September quarter, a step down from the previous quarter, but labour productivity growth remains weak.
  • Sustainably returning inflation to target within a reasonable timeframe remains the Board’s highest priority. This is consistent with the RBA’s mandate for price stability and full employment. To date, longer-term inflation expectations have been consistent with the inflation target and it is important that this remains the case.
  • The Board will continue to rely upon the data and the evolving assessment of risks to guide its decisions, paying close attention to developments in the global economy and financial markets, trends in domestic demand, and the outlook for inflation and the labour market.
  • The next meeting is on 18 February 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bullish


The Kiwi Dollar (NZD)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from NZD today?

Despite Wednesday’s ‘soft’ labour market data, the Kiwi held up well as demand for the U.S. dollar tapered off. This currency pair was hovering around 0.5680 at the beginning of the Asia session.

Central Bank Notes:

  • The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) agreed to reduce the Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 50 basis points bringing it down to 4.25% on 27 November, marking the third consecutive rate cut.
  • The Committee assessed that annual consumer price inflation has declined and is now close to the midpoint of the MPC’s 1 to 3% target band; inflation expectations are also close to target and core inflation is converging to the midpoint.
  • Economic activity remains subdued and output continues to be below its potential. With excess productive capacity in the economy, inflation pressures have eased. If economic conditions continue to evolve as projected, the Committee expects to be able to lower the OCR further early next year.
  • Domestic economic activity remains below trend, as a result of weakness in demand for durable goods consumption and investment. This has been reflected in falling activity in interest rate sensitive sectors such as construction, manufacturing, and retail trade. In contrast, some service sectors have continued to grow.
  • Consistent with feedback from business visits, high-frequency indicators suggest that the economy has stabilised in recent months. Economic growth is expected to recover from the December quarter, in part due to lower interest rates, but there is uncertainty around the exact timing and speed of the recovery.
  • Wage growth is slowing, consistent with inflation returning to the target midpoint while employment levels and job vacancies have declined, reflecting subdued economic activity; unemployment is expected to continue rising in the near term.
  • Expectations of future inflation, the pricing intentions of firms, and spare productive capacity are consistent with the inflation target being sustainably achieved, providing the context and the confidence for the Committee to ease monetary policy restraint further.
  • The next meeting is on 19 February 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bullish


The Japanese Yen (JPY)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from JPY today?

The combination of robust wage growth and hawkish BoJ expectations created a strongly bullish environment for the yen. In addition, the narrowing interest rate differential between Japan and the U.S. further supports yen strength as USD/JPY dived under 153.50 overnight. Overhead pressures are likely to persist for this currency pair for the remainder of this week.

Central Bank Notes:

  • The Policy Board of the Bank of Japan decided on 24 January, by an 8-1 majority vote, to set the following guidelines for money market operations for the inter-meeting period:
    1. The Bank will encourage the uncollateralized overnight call rate to remain at around 0.5%.
    2. The Bank will embark on a plan to reduce the amount of its monthly outright purchases of JGBs so that it will be about 3 trillion yen in January-March 2026; the amount will be cut down by about 400 billion yen each calendar quarter in principle.
  • Japan’s economy has recovered moderately, although some weakness has been seen in part. Exports and industrial production have been more or less flat while corporate profits have been on an improving trend and business sentiment has stayed at a favourable level.
  • The employment and income situation has improved moderately while private consumption has been on a moderately increasing trend despite the impact of price rises and other factors.
  • On the price front, the year-on-year rate of increase in the consumer price index (CPI, all items less fresh food) has been at around 3% recently, as services prices have continued to rise moderately, reflecting factors such as wage increases, although the effects of a pass-through to consumer prices of cost increases led by the past rise in import prices have waned.
  • Inflation expectations have risen moderately while underlying CPI inflation has been increasing gradually toward the price stability target of 2%. With wages continuing to rise, there has been an increase in moves to reflect higher costs, such as increased personnel expenses and distribution costs, in selling prices.
  • Japan’s economy is likely to keep growing at a pace above its potential growth rate, with overseas economies continuing to grow moderately and as a virtuous cycle from income to spending gradually intensifies against the background of factors such as accommodative financial conditions.
  • The next meeting is on 19 March 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bearish


The Euro (EUR)

Key news events today

Retail Sales (10:00 am GMT)

What can we expect from EUR today?

Consumer spending in the Euro Area has been weak over the last couple of months and sales figures for December are expected to decrease 0.1% MoM – this would mark the second decline in three months. However, the recent dollar weakness has helped to prop up the Euro as it hit an overnight high of 1.0442 on Wednesday.

Central Bank Notes:

  • The Governing Council reduced the three key ECB interest rates by 25 basis points on 30 January to mark the fourth successive rate cut.
  • Accordingly, the interest rate on the main refinancing operations and the interest rates on the marginal lending facility and the deposit facility will be decreased to 2.90%, 3.15% and 2.75% respectively.
  • The disinflation process is well on track and inflation is set to return to the Governing Council’s 2% medium-term target in the course of this year. Most measures of underlying inflation suggest that inflation will settle at around the target on a sustained basis.
  • Staff see headline inflation averaging 2.4% in 2024, 2.1% in 2025, 1.9% in 2026 and 2.1% in 2027 when the expanded EU Emissions Trading System becomes operational. For inflation excluding energy and food, staff project an average of 2.9% in 2024, 2.3% in 2025 and 1.9% in both 2026 and 2027.
  • Staff now expect a slower economic recovery than in the September projections. Although growth picked up in the third quarter of this year, survey indicators suggest it has slowed in the current quarter – the economy is expected to grow by 0.7% in 2024, 1.1% in 2025, 1.4% in 2026 and 1.3% in 2027
  • The asset purchase programme (APP) and pandemic emergency purchase programme (PEPP) portfolios are declining at a measured and predictable pace, as the Eurosystem no longer reinvests the principal payments from maturing securities.
  • The Governing Council stands ready to adjust all of its instruments within its mandate to ensure that inflation stabilises sustainably at its 2% target over the medium term and to preserve the smooth functioning of monetary policy transmission.
  • The next meeting is on 6 March 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bullish


The Swiss Franc (CHF)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from CHF today?

The franc has seen strong inflows due to potential global trade wars amidst heightened volatility causing USD/CHF to tumble over 2% this week. This currency pair is likely to remain under pressure as the day progresses.

Central Bank Notes:

  • The SNB eased monetary policy by lowering its key policy rate by 50 basis points, going from 1.00% to 0.50% on 12 December, marking the fourth consecutive reduction.
  • Underlying inflationary pressure has decreased again this quarter.
  • Inflation in the period since the last monetary policy assessment has again been lower than expected as it decreased from 1.1% in August to 0.7% in November; both goods and services contributed to this decline.
  • In the shorter term, the new conditional inflation forecast is below that of September: 1.1% for 2024, 0.3% for 2025 and 0.8% for 2026, based on the assumption that the SNB policy rate is 0.5% over the entire forecast horizon.
  • GDP growth in Switzerland was only modest in the third quarter of 2024 with growth in the services sector again somewhat stronger, while value added in manufacturing declined.
  • There was a further slight increase in unemployment, and employment growth was subdued while the utilisation of overall production capacity was
  • normal.
  • The SNB anticipates GDP growth of around 1% this year while currently expecting growth of between 1.0% and 1.5% for 2025.
  • The SNB will continue to monitor the situation closely and will adjust its monetary policy if necessary to ensure inflation remains within the range consistent with price stability over the medium term.
  • The next meeting is on 20 March 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bearish


The Pound (GBP)

Key news events today

S&P Construction PMI (9:30 am GMT)

BoE Monetary Policy Report (12:00 pm GMT)

What can we expect from GBP today?

Following strong output for most of 2024, construction activity eased to a six-month low of 53.3 in December. The slowdown was marked by weaker demand, higher borrowing costs and subdued consumer confidence. January’s estimate of 53.5 points to a somewhat unchanged figure, highlighting the softer pace of expansion for this sector.

Following a pause at December’s board meeting, the Bank of England (BoE) is now widely expected to reduce its official bank rate by 25 basis points (bps) to bring it down to 4.50%. Although inflation remains above the BoE’s target of 2%, the combination of a weakening labour market and ‘softer’ GDP activity have nudged this central bank toward a dovish action at the first meeting of 2025. The pound is likely to depreciate going into the announcement but it could remain steady should the statement project a balanced view with regards to the outlook on future monetary policy action.

Central Bank Notes:

  • The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted by a majority of 6 to 3 to maintain the Bank Rate at 4.75% on 19 December 2024 – three members preferred to reduce the Bank rate by 25 basis points, bringing it down to 4.50%.
  • The MPC also voted unanimously to reduce the stock of UK government bond purchases held for monetary policy purposes and financed by the issuance of central bank reserves, by £100B over the next 12 months to a total of £558B, starting in October 2024. On 18 December 2024, the stock of UK government bonds held for monetary policy purposes was £655B.
  • Twelve-month CPI inflation had increased to 2.6% in November from 1.7% in September, slightly higher than previous expectations while services consumer price inflation had remained elevated, at 5.0%, while core goods price inflation had risen to 1.1%.
  • Headline CPI inflation was slightly higher than previous expectations, owing in large part to stronger inflation in core goods and food, and is expected to continue to rise slightly in the near term.
  • Most indicators of UK near-term activity have declined with Bank staff expecting GDP growth to be weaker at the end of the year than originally projected in the November Monetary Policy Report.
  • Bank staff now expected zero GDP growth in 2024 Q4, weaker than the 0.3% that had been incorporated in the November Report, broadly consistent with the latest combined steer from business surveys and the available official data.
  • The Committee now judges that the labour market is broadly in balance as annual private sector regular average weekly earnings growth picked up quite sharply in the three months to October but there remains significant uncertainty around developments in the labour market.
  • Monetary policy has been guided by the need to squeeze remaining inflationary pressures out of the economy to achieve the 2% target both in a timely manner and on a lasting basis. Over recent quarters there has been progress in disinflation, particularly as previous external shocks have abated, although remaining domestic inflationary pressures are resolving more slowly.
  • The Committee continues to monitor closely the risks of inflation persistence and will assess the extent to which the evolving evidence is consistent with more constrained supply, which could sustain inflationary pressures, or with weaker demand, which could lead to the emergence of spare capacity in the economy and push down inflation; a gradual approach to removing monetary policy restraint remains appropriate.
  • Monetary policy will need to continue to remain restrictive for sufficiently long until the risks to inflation returning sustainably to the 2% target in the medium term have dissipated further and the Committee will decide the appropriate degree of monetary policy restrictiveness at each meeting.
  • The next meeting is on 6 February 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish


The Canadian Dollar (CAD)

Key news events today

Ivey PMI (3:00 pm GMT)

What can we expect from CAD today?

PMI activity in Canada has expanded steadily in the last quarter of 2024 as output rose from 52.3 in the previous month to 54.7 in December. January’s estimate of 53.0 points to another month of solid growth and could provide an additional boost for the Loonie which has appreciated strongly this week. USD/CAD has dived over 3% this week thus far and looks set to head even lower.

Central Bank Notes:

  • The Bank of Canada reduced its target for the overnight rate by 25 basis points bringing it down to 3% on 29 January; this marked the sixth consecutive meeting where rates were reduced.
  • The bank announced its plan to complete the normalization of its balance sheet, ending quantitative tightening, and will restart asset purchases in early March, beginning gradually so that its balance sheet stabilizes and then grows modestly, in line with growth in the economy.
  • Past cuts to interest rates have started to boost the economy and the recent strengthening in both consumption and housing activity is expected to continue. However, business investment remains weak while the outlook for exports is being supported by new export capacity for oil and gas.
  • The Bank forecasts GDP growth will strengthen in 2025 and now projects GDP will grow by 1.8% in both 2025 and 2026, somewhat higher than potential growth.
  • The labour market remains soft, with the unemployment rate at 6.7% in December. Job growth has strengthened in recent months, after lagging growth in the labour force for more than a year. Wage pressures, which have proven sticky, are showing some signs of easing.
  • CPI inflation remains close to 2%, with some volatility due to the temporary suspension of the GST/HST on some consumer products. Shelter price inflation is still elevated but it is easing gradually, as expected
  • A broad range of indicators, including surveys of inflation expectations and the distribution of price changes among components of the CPI, suggests that underlying inflation is close to 2% with forecasts that CPI inflation will be around the 2% target over the next two years.
  • With inflation around 2%, the economy in excess supply, and recent indicators tilted towards softer growth than projected, the Governing Council decided to reduce the policy rate a further 25 basis points to support growth and keep inflation close to the middle of the 1-3% target range.
  • The cumulative reduction in the policy rate since last June is substantial as lower interest rates are boosting household spending and the economy is expected to strengthen gradually and inflation to stay close to target. However, if broad-based and significant tariffs were imposed, the resilience of Canada’s economy would be tested.
  • The Bank is committed to maintaining price stability for Canadians by keeping inflation close to the 2% target.
  • The next meeting is on 12 March 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bearish


Oil

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from Oil today?

Similarly to the API stockpiles, the EIA inventories added a whopping 8.7M barrels of crude on Wednesday. Not only did storage levels swell for the second successive week, but the latest result was notably higher than the forecast of 2.4M barrels. Coupled with the recently developed concerns about a China-U.S. trade war fueling fears of sluggish economic growth, overhead pressures for this commodity remain firmly in place. WTI oil declined 2% on Wednesday as it dived as low as $70.98 per barrel – this benchmark was hovering above the $71 mark as Asian markets came online on Thursday.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bearish


The post IC Markets Asia Fundamental Forecast | 6 February 2025 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

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