Markets Rally as Middle East Tensions Ease – S&P 0.9% Higher 

Risk appetite returned to the market in trading yesterday as geopolitical concerns in the Middle East pulled back with both Israel and Iran advising that they do not want to escalate hostilities. The major US indices all jumped back after hard losses on Friday, the Dow gained 0.67%, the S&P 0.87%, and the Nasdaq finished up 1.11%. The dollar remained in relatively familiar trading ranges, although the UsdJpy remains in focus, hitting a 34-year high overnight against the greenback at 154.85. US Treasury yields saw little movement, the 2-year closing at 4.971% and the 10-year at 4.621%. Oil prices pulled back again, Brent losing 0.33% to $87 per barrel and WTI dropping 0.35% to trade at $82.85 per barrel. Gold saw much more volatility, experiencing its biggest 1-day drop in nearly 2 years as it fell 2.6%, trading around the $2,330 level at the start of the Asian session. 

Multiple Factors to Hit Markets this Week

It was an interesting start to the trading week yesterday as the ever-present focus on inflation data and its effect on rates took a step back and allowed geopolitics and company earnings data to dominate moves.  There is no doubt that the major quarterly earnings report due out this week will have a strong impact on US stocks, especially given the heavy weighting of the ‘Magnificent Seven’, however, expect the focus to swiftly move back to the Fed and rate cut expectations by the end of the week when the Core PCE Index data is due out. In addition to the US data, we also have a plethora of PMI numbers due out across multiple regions and CPI numbers out of Australia which will all have stronger influences on central banks than individual company numbers. Add to the above the potential for more geopolitical escalation in the Middle East and you have the recipe for a volatile few days ahead.  

PMI Data Dominates Economic Calendar Today 

Asian markets are set to start the day on the front foot after Wall Street posted gains on the first day of what could be a big week for investors. There is little on the calendar in the APAC session today, so expect that momentum to continue through the session, however, there is a heavy data hit in the latter two sessions of the day. We have the plethora of Flash Services and Manufacturing PMI numbers due out, with data set to come from, France, Germany, The Eurozone, the UK, and the US. New Home Sales and the Richmond Manufacturing Index numbers are also due out later in the New York session, and we have earnings numbers from Tesla, PepsiCo, and Visa to name but a few.  

The post General Market Analysis 23/04/2024 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

DXY (US Dollar Index):

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

Price could potentially make a bearish reaction off the pivot and drop to the 1st support.

PIvot: 106.37

Supporting reasons: Multi-swing high resistance, indicating a significant level where selling pressure might intensify, potentially leading to a reversal or continuation of the bullish momentum.

1st support: 105.74

Supporting reasons: Swing low support, representing a level where buyers have previously intervened to support the price, potentially acting as a foundation for a bounce or temporary halt in the bullish momentum.

1st resistance: 106.89

Supporting reasons: Swing high resistance, suggesting a level where selling pressure might increase, potentially acting as a barrier to further upside movement within the context of the overall bullish trend.

EUR/USD:

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price could potentially make a bearish reaction off pivot and drop to the 1st support.

PIvot: 1.0699

Supporting reasons: Pullback resistance at the 38.20% Fibonacci Retracement level, indicating a significant level where selling pressure might intensify, potentially leading to a reversal or continuation of the bearish momentum.

1st support: 1.0615

Supporting reasons: Multi-swing low support, suggesting a level where buyers have previously intervened to support the price, potentially acting as a foundation for a bounce or temporary halt in the bearish momentum.

1st resistance: 1.0680

Supporting reasons: Pullback resistance, representing a level where selling pressure might increase, potentially acting as a barrier to further upward movement.

EUR/JPY:

Potential Direction: Neutral

Overall momentum of the chart: Neutral

Price could potentially make a fluctuation between the 1st resistance and 1st support level.

1st support: 162.64

Supporting reasons: Multi-swing low support, indicating a level where buyers have previously intervened to support the price, potentially acting as a foundation for a bounce or temporary halt in the momentum.

1st resistance: 154.15

Supporting reasons: Multi-swing high resistance, representing a level where selling pressure might increase, potentially acting as a barrier to further upward movement.

EUR/GBP:

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

Price could potentially make a bullish bounce off the pivot and head towards the 1st resistance.

PIvot: 0.8603

Supporting reasons: Pullback support, indicating a level where buyers might step in to support the price, potentially providing a foundation for a bounce.

1st support: 0.8582

Supporting reasons: Pullback support, suggesting a level where buyers have previously intervened to support the price.

1st resistance: 0.8650

Supporting reasons: Pullback resistance, representing a level where selling pressure might intensify, potentially acting as a barrier to further upward movement.

GBP/USD:

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price could potentially make a bullish bounce off the pivot and head towards the 1st resistance.

PIvot: 1.2319

Supporting reasons: An Overlap support, indicating a significant level where buyers might step in to support the price.

1st support: 1.2198

Supporting reasons: An Overlap support, suggesting a level where buyers have previously intervened to support the price.

1st resistance: 1.2429

Supporting reasons: Pullback resistance, representing a level where selling pressure might intensify, potentially acting as a barrier to further upward movement.

GBP/JPY:

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price could potentially make a bearish continuation towards the 1st support.

PIvot: 191.74

Supporting reasons: An Overlap resistance, indicating a significant level where selling pressure might increase.

1st support: 190.30

Supporting reasons: Multi-swing low support, suggesting a level where buyers have previously intervened to support the price.

1st resistance: 192.79

Supporting reasons: Multi-swing high resistance, representing a level where selling pressure might intensify, potentially acting as a barrier to further upward movement.

USD/CHF:

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price could potentially make a bearish reaction off pivot and drop to 1st support.

PIvot: 0.9145

Supporting reasons: Multi-swing high resistance, indicating a level where selling pressure might intensify, potentially leading to a reversal or continuation of the bearish momentum.

1st support: 0.9057

Supporting reasons: An Overlap support, suggesting a level where buyers might step in to support the price, potentially providing a foundation for a bounce or temporary halt in the bearish momentum.

1st resistance: 0.9191

Supporting reasons: 127.20% Fibonacci Extension, representing a level where selling pressure might increase, potentially acting as a barrier to further downside movement.

USD/JPY:

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

Price could potentially make a bearish reaction off pivot and drop to 1st support.

PIvot: 154.77

Supporting reasons: Multi-swing high resistance, indicating a level where selling pressure might intensify, potentially leading to a reversal or continuation of the bullish momentum.

1st support: 153.36

Supporting reasons: Pullback support, suggesting a level where buyers might step in to support the price, potentially providing a foundation for a bounce or temporary halt in the bullish momentum.

1st resistance: 155.46

Supporting reasons: 161.80% Fibonacci Extension, representing a level where selling pressure might increase, potentially acting as a barrier to further upside movement. Additionally, RSI is also displaying bearish divergence versus price, suggesting that a reversal might occur soon.

USD/CAD:

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price could fall towards the pivot and potentially make a bullish bounce off this level to rise towards the 1st resistance

Pivot: 1.3668

Supporting reasons: Acts as a pullback support that aligns with a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level, suggesting a significant area where price could find a solid foundation for potential price stabilization or a rebound.

1st support: 1.3628

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns close to a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level, suggesting an area where price has previously found strong buying interest to potentially halt any further downward movement.

1st resistance: 1.3741

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance that aligns with a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level, marking a significant barrier that could cap further upward movements.

AUD/USD:

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Neutral

Price could rise towards the pivot and potentially make a bearish reaction off this level to drop towards the 1st support

Pivot: 0.6486

Supporting reasons: Acts as a pullback resistance, suggesting a significant area where price has previously faced strong selling pressures and could stall around this level before reversing to drop lower.

1st support: 0.6397

Supporting reasons: Acts as a pullback support, suggesting a significant area where price has previously found strong support and could provide a basis to halt further downward movement.

1st resistance: 0.6545

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns close to a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level, marking a barrier that has previously capped upward movements.

NZD/USD

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Neutral

Price could rise towards the pivot and potentially make a bearish reaction off this level to drop towards the 1st support

Pivot: 0.5930

Supporting reasons: Acts as a pullback resistance that aligns close to a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level, suggesting a significant area where price has previously faced strong selling pressures and could stall around this level before reversing to drop lower.

1st support: 0.5873

Supporting reasons: Acts as a pullback support, suggesting a potential area for price stabilization or a minor rebound within the bearish context.

1st resistance: 0.5974

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns close to a 50% Fibonacci retracement level, marking a barrier that has previously capped upward movements.

US30 (DJIA):

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Neutral

Price could rise towards the pivot and potentially make a bearish reaction off this level to drop towards the 1st support

Pivot: 38,546.69

Supporting reasons: Acts as an overlap resistance that aligns with a 50% Fibonacci retracement level, suggesting a significant area where price has previously faced strong selling pressures and could stall around this level before reversing to drop lower.

1st support: 38,025.73

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support that aligns with a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level, suggesting a significant area where price has previously found strong buying interest and could provide a solid foundation to halt further downward movement.

1st resistance: 39,042.57

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance that aligns with a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level, indicating a potential barrier that could cap any upward movements.

DE40 (DAX):

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Neutral

Price could rise towards the pivot and potentially make a bearish reaction off this level to drop towards the 1st support

Pivot: 18,152.00

Supporting reasons: Acts as a pullback support that aligns with a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level, suggesting a significant area where price has previously faced strong selling pressures and could stall around this level before reversing to drop lower.

1st support: 17,712.10

Supporting reasons: Acts as a pullback support, suggesting a significant area where price has previously found strong buying interest and could provide a solid foundation to halt further downward movement.

1st resistance: 18,315.80

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns with a 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level, potentially functioning as a barrier that could cap any upward movements.

US500 (S&P 500): 

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Neutral

Price could rise towards the pivot and potentially make a bearish reaction off this level to drop towards the 1st support

Pivot: 5,069.96

Supporting reasons: Acts as a pullback support that aligns close to a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level, suggesting a significant area where price has previously faced strong selling pressures and could stall around this level before reversing to drop lower.

1st support: 4,963.35

Supporting reasons: Acts as a pullback support, suggesting a significant area where price has previously found strong buying interest and could provide a solid foundation to halt further downward movement.

1st resistance: 5,117.20

Supporting reasons: Marked by a pullback resistance that aligns close to a 50% Fibonacci retracement level, which could function as a potential barrier and cap any upward movements.

BTC/USD (Bitcoin):

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Neutral

Price could rise towards the pivot and potentially make a bearish reaction off this level to drop towards the 1st support

Pivot: 67,959.86

Supporting reasons: Acts as a pullback support that aligns with a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level, suggesting a significant area where price could face strong selling pressures and potentially stall around this level before reversing to drop lower.

1st support: 64,549.56

Supporting reasons: Acts as an overlap support, suggesting a significant area where price has previously found support and could provide a strong foundation to halt further downward movements.

1st resistance: 71,123.59

Supporting reasons: Marked by a pullback resistance, indicating a significant barrier that could cap further upward movements.

ETH/USD (Ethereum):

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Neutral

Price could rise towards the pivot and potentially make a bearish reaction off this level to drop towards the 1st support

Pivot: 3,256.52

Supporting reasons: Acts as a pullback support that aligns close to a 50% Fibonacci retracement level, suggesting a significant area where price could face strong selling pressures and potentially stall around this level before reversing to drop lower.

1st support: 2,945.02

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, suggesting a significant area where price has previously found support and could provide a strong foundation to halt further downward movements.

1st resistance: 3,436.46

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance that aligns close to a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level, marking a significant barrier that could cap further upward movements.

WTI/USD (Oil):

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Neutral

Price has made a bullish reaction off the pivot and could potentially rise towards the 1st resistance

Pivot: 81.86

Supporting reasons: Acts as a pullback support, suggesting a significant area where price has previously found support to provide a strong foundation for a potential rebound.

1st support: 80.62

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns close to a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level, suggesting a significant area where price has previously found strong buying interest and could provide a solid foundation to halt further downward movements.

1st resistance: 85.42

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns with a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level, marking a significant barrier that could cap further upward movements.

XAU/USD (GOLD):

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price could potentially make a bearish reaction off pivot and drop to 1st support.

PIvot: 2320.00

Supporting reasons: Pullback support, indicating a level where buyers might intervene to support the price, potentially providing a foundation for a bounce or temporary halt in the bearish momentum.

1st support: 2266.00

Supporting reasons: An Overlap support, suggesting a significant level where buyers have previously stepped in to support the price, potentially acting as a strong support zone.

1st resistance: 2363.00

Supporting reasons: Pullback resistance, representing a level where selling pressure might intensify, potentially acting as a barrier to further upward movement within the context of the overall bearish trend.

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The post Tuesday 23rd April 2024: Technical Outlook and Review first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

IC Markets Asia Fundamental Forecast | 23 April 2024

What happened in the US session?

Although inflation has retreated quite steadily over the past ten to twelve months, inflationary pressures in Canada’s manufacturing and industrial production sectors continue to tick up. The Industrial Product Price Index (IPPI) – which measures factory gate and producer prices – increased 0.8% MoM while the Raw Materials Price Index (RMPI) jumped 4.7% MoM in March, which was higher than the estimate of 2.9% as well as the previous month’s reading of 2.1%. The Loonie strengthened overnight driving USD/CAD below the threshold of 1.3700 – this currency pair was trading around 1.3690 as Asian markets came online.

What does it mean for the Asia Session?

Australia’s flash Composite PMI for the month of April showed business activity rising at the fastest pace in two years, supported primarily by the services sector. Although manufacturing continues to remain in contraction territory, it hit a 8-month high of 49.1 to inch closer towards expansion. The Aussie climbed above 0.6460 following this news release and could remain elevated today.

The Dollar Index (DXY)

Key news events today

S&P Global Composite PMI (1:45 pm GMT)

What can we expect from DXY today?

The flash Composite PMI for the month of April is expected to show the manufacturing and services sectors both expanding steadily in the US. This would mark the fourth month of expansion in a row for manufacturing as this sector rebounds after eight consecutive months of contraction in 2023. Should we see another round of robust PMI activity, the dollar could receive a boost later today.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Federal Funds Rate target range remained unchanged at 5.25% to 5.50% for the fifth meeting in a row.
• The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2% over the longer run and judges that the risks to achieving its employment and inflation goals are moving into better balance.
• The economic outlook is uncertain, and the Committee remains highly attentive to inflation risks; inflation has eased over the past year but remains elevated.
• Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has been expanding at a solid pace while job gains have remained strong, and the unemployment rate has remained low.
• In considering any adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will carefully assess incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks and does not expect it will be appropriate to reduce the target range until it has gained greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward 2%.
• In addition, the Committee will continue reducing its holdings of Treasury securities and agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities, as described in its previously announced plans.
• Next meeting runs from 30 April to 1 May 2024.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bearish

Gold (XAU)

Key news events today

S&P Global Composite PMI (1:45 pm GMT)

What can we expect from Gold today?

The flash Composite PMI for the month of April is expected to show the manufacturing and services sectors both expanding steadily in the US. This would mark the fourth month of expansion in a row for manufacturing as this sector rebounds after eight consecutive months of contraction in 2023. Should we see another round of robust PMI activity, the dollar could receive a boost to potentially drive gold prices even lower later today.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bearish

The Australian Dollar (AUD)

Key news events today

S&P Global Composite PMI (11:00 pm GMT 22nd April)

What can we expect from AUD today?

Australia’s flash Composite PMI for the month of April showed business activity rising at the fastest pace in two years, supported primarily by the services sector. Although manufacturing continues to remain in contraction territory, it hit an 8-month high of 49.1 to inch closer towards expansion. The Aussie climbed above 0.6460 following this news release and could remain elevated today.

Central Bank Notes:

• The RBA kept the cash rate target unchanged at 4.35%, marking the seventh pause out of the last eight board meetings.
• The headline monthly CPI indicator was steady at 3.4% over the year to January, with momentum easing over recent months, driven by moderating goods inflation. Services inflation remains elevated and is moderating at a more gradual pace.
• The central forecasts are for inflation to return to the target range of 2–3% in 2025, and to the midpoint in 2026.
• While recent data indicate that inflation is easing, it remains high. The Board expects that it will be some time yet before inflation is sustainably in the target range.
• The path of interest rates that will best ensure that inflation returns to target in a reasonable timeframe remains uncertain and the Board is not ruling anything in or out.
• Next meeting is on 7 May 2024.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bullish

The Kiwi Dollar (NZD)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from NZD today?

The Kiwi rose above 0.5920 overnight before pulling back slightly as Asian markets came online. This currency pair was trading around 0.5915 before resuming the uptrend to rise towards 0.5930, buoyed by Australia’s upbeat PMI report this morning.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Monetary Policy Committee kept the OCR unchanged at 5.50% for the sixth meeting in a row.
• The Committee remains confident that the current level of the OCR is contributing to an easing in capacity pressures to ensure inflation returns to target.
• However, current consumer price inflation remains above the Committee’s 1 to 3% target range. A restrictive monetary policy stance remains necessary to further reduce capacity pressures and inflation.
• The Committee discussed upside risks to the inflation outlook: persistent services inflation remains a risk and goods price inflation remains elevated while anticipated near-term increases to local government rates, insurance, and utility costs, could also further slow the decline in headline inflation.
• The Committee discussed downside risks to the inflation outlook: ongoing restrictive monetary policy in an environment of weak global growth could lead to a more rapid decline in inflation than expected. Business and consumer confidence remain particularly weak which could lead to more unemployment and financial stress than expected while structural challenges facing the economy in China remain a concern given its importance for the global economy and for New Zealand’s trade.
• Next meeting is on 10 July 2024.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bullish

The Japanese Yen (JPY)

Key news events today

S&P Global Composite PMI (12:30 am GMT)

What can we expect from JPY today?

Japan’s flash Composite PMI for the month of April showed business activity accelerating to an 8-month high led predominantly by the services sector. New orders highlighted solid growth while business confidence was positive as the pace of hiring also picked up. The yen strengthened this morning and caused USD/JPY to pull back – this currency pair was trading around 154.70 and could slide lower during the Asia and Europe sessions.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Bank considers that the policy framework of Quantitative and Qualitative Monetary Easing (QQE) with Yield Curve Control and the negative interest rate policy to date have fulfilled their roles. With the price stability target of 2%, it will conduct monetary policy as appropriate, guiding the short-term interest rate as a primary policy tool.
• The Bank of Japan decided on the following measures:
  1. The Bank will encourage the uncollateralized overnight call rate to remain at around 0 to 0.1% while continuing its JGB purchases with broadly the same amount as before.
  2. In addition, the Bank will discontinue purchases of exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and Japan real estate investment trusts (J-REITs) and will also gradually reduce the amount of purchases of CP and corporate bonds and will discontinue the purchases in about one year.
• Underlying CPI inflation is likely to increase gradually toward achieving the price stability target of 2%, as the output gap turns positive and as medium- to long-term inflation expectations and wage growth rise.
• Japan’s economy is likely to continue recovering moderately for the time being, supported by factors such as the materialization of pent-up demand, although it is expected to be under downward pressure stemming from a slowdown in the pace of recovery in overseas economies.
• Next meeting is on 26 April 2024.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bearish

The Euro (EUR)

Key news events today

S&P Global Composite PMI (8:00 am GMT)

What can we expect from EUR today?

The flash Composite PMI for the Euro Area is expected to expand for the second month in a row as services activity leads overall economic growth once again. Should the flash PMI surprise markets to the upside, it could potentially function as a short-term bullish catalyst for the Euro before European markets come online.

Central Bank Notes:

• The ECB kept the three key interest rates unchanged for a fifth consecutive meeting, keeping the main refinancing rate on hold at 4.50%.
• Inflation has continued to fall, led by lower food and goods price inflation with most measures of underlying inflation easing, wage growth is gradually moderating, and firms are absorbing part of the rise in labour costs in their profits.
• Financing conditions remain restrictive and the past interest rate increases continue to weigh on demand, which is helping to push down inflation but domestic price pressures are strong and are keeping services price inflation high.
• The Governing Council is determined to ensure that inflation returns to its 2% medium-term target in a timely manner and if the Council’s updated assessment of the inflation outlook, the dynamics of underlying inflation and the strength of monetary policy transmission were to further increase its confidence that inflation is converging to the target in a sustained manner, it would be appropriate to reduce the current level of monetary policy restriction.
• Next meeting is on 6 June 2024.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish

The Swiss Franc (CHF)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from CHF today?

A weak franc continues to keep USD/CHF elevated as it hit an overnight high of 0.9120 – this currency pair should remain elevated and could edge higher towards 0.9150 today.

Central Bank Notes:

• The SNB eased monetary policy by lowering its key policy rate by 25 basis points, going from 1.75% to 1.50% in March.
• For some months now, inflation has been back below 2% and thus in the range the SNB equates with price stability.
• According to the new forecast, inflation is also likely to remain in this range over the next few years.
• The forecast puts average annual inflation at 1.4% for 2024, 1.2% for 2025 and 1.1% for 2026, based on the assumption that the SNB policy rate is 1.5% over the entire forecast horizon.
• Swiss GDP growth was moderate in the fourth quarter of last year and it is likely to remain modest in the coming quarters.
• Overall, Switzerland’s GDP is likely to grow by around 1% this year.
• Next meeting is on 20 June 2024.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish

The Pound (GBP)

Key news events today

S&P Global Composite PMI (8:30 am GMT)

What can we expect from GBP today?

The flash Composite PMI for the UK is anticipated to expand for the sixth month in a row. With manufacturing activity returning to expansion in March following one and half years of contraction, economic growth looks to be more well-balanced in 2024. Should the flash PMI surprise markets to the upside, it could potentially function as a short-term bullish catalyst for the Pound and drive GBP/USD higher at the start of the European trading hours.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted by a majority of 8-to-1 to maintain its Official Bank Rate at 5.25% for the fifth consecutive meeting.
• One member preferred to reduce the Bank Rate by 25 basis points to 5.0%.
• Twelve-month CPI inflation fell to 3.4% in February from 4.0% in January and December while Services consumer price inflation has declined but remains elevated, at 6.1% in February.
• CPI inflation is projected to fall to slightly below the 2% target in 2024 Q2, marginally weaker than previously expected owing to the freeze in fuel duty announced in the Budget.
• In the February Report projection, CPI inflation had been expected to fall temporarily to the 2% target in 2024 Q2 before increasing again in Q3 and Q4, to around 2.75%.
• Having declined through the second half of last year, UK GDP and market sector output are expected to start growing again during the first half of this year while the fiscal measures in Spring Budget 2024 are likely to increase the level of GDP by around 0.25% over coming years.
• Next meeting is on 9 May 2024.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish

The Canadian Dollar (CAD)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from CAD today?

Although inflation has retreated quite steadily over the past ten to twelve months, inflationary pressures in Canada’s manufacturing and industrial production sectors continue to tick up. The Industrial Product Price Index (IPPI) – which measures factory gate and producer prices – increased 0.8% MoM while the Raw Materials Price Index (RMPI) jumped 4.7% MoM in March, which was higher than the estimate of 2.9% as well as the previous month’s reading of 2.1%. The Loonie strengthened overnight driving USD/CAD below the threshold of 1.3700 – this currency pair was trading around 1.3690 as Asian markets came online.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Bank of Canada held its target for the overnight rate at 5.0% for the fifth meeting in a row while continuing its policy of quantitative tightening.
• Canada’s economy stalled in the second half of last year and the economy moved into excess supply but economic growth is forecasted to pick up in 2024. Overall, the Bank forecasts GDP growth of 1.5% in 2024, 2.2% in 2025, and 1.9% in 2026.
• CPI inflation slowed to 2.8% in February, with easing in price pressures becoming more broad-based across goods and services. However, shelter price inflation is still very elevated, driven by growth in rent and mortgage interest costs.
• Core measures of inflation, which had been running around 3.5%, slowed to just over 3% in February, and 3-month annualized rates are suggesting downward momentum. The Bank expects CPI inflation to be close to 3% during the first half of this year, move below 2.5% in the second half, and reach the 2% inflation target in 2025.
• The Governing Council is particularly watching the evolution of core inflation, and continues to focus on the balance between demand and supply in the economy, inflation expectations, wage growth, and corporate pricing behaviour.
• While inflation is still too high and risks remain, CPI and core inflation have eased further in recent months and the Council will be looking for evidence that this downward momentum is sustained.
• Next meeting is on 5 June 2024.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish

Oil

Key news events today

API Crude Oil Stock (8:30 pm GMT)

What can we expect from Oil today?

The API stockpiles have increased strongly over the last couple of weeks and should today’s report point to a third consecutive week of bigger inventory builds, it could dampen the recent rise in crude prices later during the US session. WTI oil rebounded off yesterday’s lows of $81.40 to climb above $83 per barrel overnight as the prospect of potentially tighter supplies in the coming months lifted prices. High volatility remains for this commodity and traders should be wary of sharp moves in either direction.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish

The post IC Markets Asia Fundamental Forecast | 23 April 2024 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

The post Ex-Dividend 23/04/2024 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

IC Markets Europe Fundamental Forecast | 22 April 2024

What happened in the Asia session?

It was a relatively quiet session as the dollar index (DXY) briefly dipped under 106 and was hovering around this region as European markets prepared to come online. Spot prices for gold dropped as low as $2,362/oz before stabilizing around $2,370/oz. This newly-formed positive correlation between these two asset classes remains intact thus far and is likely to remain so for the rest of the day.

What does it mean for the Europe & US sessions?

The Industrial Product Price Index (IPPI) – which measures factory gate and producer prices – and the Raw Materials Price Index will provide further insight into the level of inflation in Canada’s manufacturing and industrial production sectors. Although inflation has retreated quite steadily over the past ten to twelve months, inflationary pressures are beginning to take root as evident in the recent month-over-month IPPI and RMPI. Should these indices beat market expectations, it could function as a near-term bullish catalyst for the Loonie and potentially cause USD/CAD to pull back further today.

The Dollar Index (DXY)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from DXY today?

The DXY slid lower at today’s open with this index dipping under 106. The dollar and gold are exhibiting positive correlation today, something that usually does not occur regularly – traders should be aware of this correlation and take note when normalcy resumes i.e. dollar and gold expressing negative correlation once again.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Federal Funds Rate target range remained unchanged at 5.25% to 5.50% for the fifth meeting in a row.
• The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2% over the longer run and judges that the risks to achieving its employment and inflation goals are moving into better balance.
• The economic outlook is uncertain, and the Committee remains highly attentive to inflation risks; inflation has eased over the past year but remains elevated.
• Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has been expanding at a solid pace while job gains have remained strong, and the unemployment rate has remained low.
• In considering any adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will carefully assess incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks and does not expect it will be appropriate to reduce the target range until it has gained greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward 2%.
• In addition, the Committee will continue reducing its holdings of Treasury securities and agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities, as described in its previously announced plans.
• Next meeting runs from 30 April to 1 May 2024.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bearish

Gold (XAU)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from Gold today?

After hitting the all-time high of $2,432.02/oz in the second week of April, prices for spot gold were retreating at today’s open. This precious metal gapped lower to open at $2,382/oz and edged lower to trade around $2,375/oz at the beginning of the Asia session.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bearish

The Australian Dollar (AUD)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from AUD today?

Demand for the Aussie picked up strongly at the open as it bounced strongly off the 0.6410-level. This currency pair was rising towards 0.6460 as Asian markets came online and it could continue to retrace higher as the day progresses.

Central Bank Notes:

• The RBA kept the cash rate target unchanged at 4.35%, marking the seventh pause out of the last eight board meetings.
• The headline monthly CPI indicator was steady at 3.4% over the year to January, with momentum easing over recent months, driven by moderating goods inflation. Services inflation remains elevated, and is moderating at a more gradual pace.
• The central forecasts are for inflation to return to the target range of 2–3% in 2025, and to the midpoint in 2026.
• While recent data indicate that inflation is easing, it remains high. The Board expects that it will be some time yet before inflation is sustainably in the target range.
• The path of interest rates that will best ensure that inflation returns to target in a reasonable timeframe remains uncertain and the Board is not ruling anything in or out.
• Next meeting is on 7 May 2024.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bullish

The Kiwi Dollar (NZD)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from NZD today?

Demand for the Kiwi was strong at the open causing it to bounce strongly off the 0.5880-level. This currency pair was rising towards 0.5930 at the beginning of the Asia session and it is expected to remain elevated today.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Monetary Policy Committee kept the OCR unchanged at 5.50% for the sixth meeting in a row.
• The Committee remains confident that the current level of the OCR is contributing to an easing in capacity pressures to ensure inflation returns to target.
• However, current consumer price inflation remains above the Committee’s 1 to 3% target range. A restrictive monetary policy stance remains necessary to further reduce capacity pressures and inflation.
• The Committee discussed upside risks to the inflation outlook: persistent services inflation remains a risk and goods price inflation remains elevated while anticipated near-term increases to local government rates, insurance, and utility costs, could also further slow the decline in headline inflation.
• The Committee discussed downside risks to the inflation outlook: ongoing restrictive monetary policy in an environment of weak global growth could lead to a more rapid decline in inflation than expected. Business and consumer confidence remain particularly weak which could lead to more unemployment and financial stress than expected while structural challenges facing the economy in China remain a concern given its importance for the global economy and for New Zealand’s trade.
• Next meeting is on 10 July 2024.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bullish

The Japanese Yen (JPY)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from JPY today?

Despite the Bank of Japan (BoJ) hiking its key policy rate at the previous central bank meeting and inflationary pressures starting to take root in Japan, the yen remains weak as USD/JPY hit a high of 154.83 last week. This currency pair gapped lower this morning to open at 154.38 but it rebounded above 154.70 as Asian markets came online. Tailwinds remain for USD/JPY but traders should watch out for any potential intervention measures by the BoJ which could cause sharp drops for this currency pair as well as the yen crosses.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Bank considers that the policy framework of Quantitative and Qualitative Monetary Easing (QQE) with Yield Curve Control and the negative interest rate policy to date have fulfilled their roles. With the price stability target of 2%, it will conduct monetary policy as appropriate, guiding the short-term interest rate as a primary policy tool.
• The Bank of Japan decided on the following measures:
  1. The Bank will encourage the uncollateralized overnight call rate to remain at around 0 to 0.1% while continuing its JGB purchases with broadly the same amount as before.
  2. In addition, the Bank will discontinue purchases of exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and Japan real estate investment trusts (J-REITs) and will also gradually reduce the amount of purchases of CP and corporate bonds and will discontinue the purchases in about one year.
• Underlying CPI inflation is likely to increase gradually toward achieving the price stability target of 2%, as the output gap turns positive and as medium- to long-term inflation expectations and wage growth rise.
• Japan’s economy is likely to continue recovering moderately for the time being, supported by factors such as the materialization of pent-up demand, although it is expected to be under downward pressure stemming from a slowdown in the pace of recovery in overseas economies.
• Next meeting is on 26 April 2024.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish

The Euro (EUR)

Key news events today

ECB President Lagarde Speaks (3:30 pm GMT)

What can we expect from EUR today?

ECB President Christine Lagarde is due to speak at Yale University in the US where she could drop further clues on the direction of future monetary policy action in the Euro Area. The Euro has shed almost 1.8% or 190 pips over the last couple of weeks as demand for the dollar jumped significantly. This currency pair opened at around 1.0650 to climb higher towards 1.0670 at the beginning of the Asia session.

Central Bank Notes:

• The ECB kept the three key interest rates unchanged for a fifth consecutive meeting, keeping the main refinancing rate on hold at 4.50%.
• Inflation has continued to fall, led by lower food and goods price inflation with most measures of underlying inflation easing, wage growth is gradually moderating, and firms are absorbing part of the rise in labour costs in their profits.
• Financing conditions remain restrictive and the past interest rate increases continue to weigh on demand, which is helping to push down inflation but domestic price pressures are strong and are keeping services price inflation high.
• The Governing Council is determined to ensure that inflation returns to its 2% medium-term target in a timely manner and if the Council’s updated assessment of the inflation outlook, the dynamics of underlying inflation and the strength of monetary policy transmission were to further increase its confidence that inflation is converging to the target in a sustained manner, it would be appropriate to reduce the current level of monetary policy restriction.
• Next meeting is on 6 June 2024.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish

The Swiss Franc (CHF)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from CHF today?

The Swiss franc strengthened significantly last week causing USD/CHF to tumble as low as 0.9011, losing almost 100 pips before reversing sharply to erase nearly all the initial loss. This currency pair closed at 0.9101 last Friday and opened to edge higher this morning and is likely to remain elevated today.

Central Bank Notes:

• The SNB eased monetary policy by lowering its key policy rate by 25 basis points, going from 1.75% to 1.50% in March.
• For some months now, inflation has been back below 2% and thus in the range the SNB equates with price stability.
• According to the new forecast, inflation is also likely to remain in this range over the next few years.
• The forecast puts average annual inflation at 1.4% for 2024, 1.2% for 2025 and 1.1% for 2026, based on the assumption that the SNB policy rate is 1.5% over the entire forecast horizon.
• Swiss GDP growth was moderate in the fourth quarter of last year and it is likely to remain modest in the coming quarters.
• Overall, Switzerland’s GDP is likely to grow by around 1% this year.
• Next meeting is on 20 June 2024.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish

The Pound (GBP)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from GBP today?

After falling 2.1% over the last couple of weeks, the Pound looks to have found support around 1.2360 as it bounced quite strongly off this level at today’s open. GBP/USD was trading around 1.2390 as Asian markets came online and could continue to climb higher as the day progresses.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted by a majority of 8-to-1 to maintain its Official Bank Rate at 5.25% for the fifth consecutive meeting.
• One member preferred to reduce the Bank Rate by 25 basis points to 5.0%.
• Twelve-month CPI inflation fell to 3.4% in February from 4.0% in January and December while Services consumer price inflation has declined but remains elevated, at 6.1% in February.
• CPI inflation is projected to fall to slightly below the 2% target in 2024 Q2, marginally weaker than previously expected owing to the freeze in fuel duty announced in the Budget.
• In the February Report projection, CPI inflation had been expected to fall temporarily to the 2% target in 2024 Q2 before increasing again in Q3 and Q4, to around 2.75%.
• Having declined through the second half of last year, UK GDP and market sector output are expected to start growing again during the first half of this year while the fiscal measures in Spring Budget 2024 are likely to increase the level of GDP by around 0.25% over coming years.
• Next meeting is on 9 May 2024.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish

The Canadian Dollar (CAD)

Key news events today

IPPI (12:30 pm GMT)

RMPI (12:30 pm GMT)

What can we expect from CAD today?

The Industrial Product Price Index (IPPI) – which measures factory gate and producer prices – and the Raw Materials Price Index will provide further insight into the level of inflation in Canada’s manufacturing and industrial production sectors. Although inflation has retreated quite steadily over the past ten to twelve months, inflationary pressures are beginning to take root as evident in the recent month-over-month IPPI and RMPI. Should these indices beat market expectations, it could function as a near-term bullish catalyst for the Loonie and potentially cause UDS/CAD to pull back further today.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Bank of Canada held its target for the overnight rate at 5.0% for the fifth meeting in a row while continuing its policy of quantitative tightening.
• Canada’s economy stalled in the second half of last year and the economy moved into excess supply but economic growth is forecasted to pick up in 2024. Overall, the Bank forecasts GDP growth of 1.5% in 2024, 2.2% in 2025, and 1.9% in 2026.
• CPI inflation slowed to 2.8% in February, with easing in price pressures becoming more broad-based across goods and services. However, shelter price inflation is still very elevated, driven by growth in rent and mortgage interest costs.
• Core measures of inflation, which had been running around 3.5%, slowed to just over 3% in February, and 3-month annualized rates are suggesting downward momentum. The Bank expects CPI inflation to be close to 3% during the first half of this year, move below 2.5% in the second half, and reach the 2% inflation target in 2025.
• The Governing Council is particularly watching the evolution of core inflation, and continues to focus on the balance between demand and supply in the economy, inflation expectations, wage growth, and corporate pricing behaviour.
• While inflation is still too high and risks remain, CPI and core inflation have eased further in recent months and the Council will be looking for evidence that this downward momentum is sustained.
• Next meeting is on 5 June 2024.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bearish

Oil

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from Oil today?

Prices for crude oil declined over the last couple of weeks with WTI oil losing 4.3% over this period. WTI oil dropped as low as $81.70 per barrel last week and this downward slide looks to have resumed at today’s open. Despite the ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, downward pressures are building due to weaker crude demand in the US as observed in the inventory builds reported by the API and EIA in recent weeks.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bearish

The post IC Markets Europe Fundamental Forecast | 22 April 2024 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

Global Markets:

•  Asian Stock Markets : Nikkei down 2.14%, Shanghai Composite down 0.51%, Hang Seng up 1.77% ASX up 1.08%
• Commodities : Gold at $2375.5 (-1.36%), Silver at $27.57 (3.72%), Brent Oil at $86.93 (-1.18%), WTI Oil at $81.27 (-1.24%)
• Rates : US 10-year yield at 4.65, UK 10-year yield at 4.31, Germany 10-year yield at 2.51

News & Data:

• (GBP) Retail sales m/m 0.0% vs 0.3% expected

Markets Update:

Asia-Pacific markets rebounded from Friday’s sell-off as investors turn their attention to fresh data from China, Japan, and South Korea this week. Last Friday, the region’s markets experienced a tumble after Israel launched a strike on Iran, resulting in stock declines and a surge in safe-haven assets. On Monday, China maintained its one-year and five-year loan prime rates at 3.45% and 3.95%, respectively. The five-year LPR serves as the benchmark for most property mortgages.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index surged by 1.74%, while mainland China’s CSI 300 was trading 0.2% lower after the LPR announcement. Japan’s Nikkei 225 increased by 0.36%, with the broader Topix seeing a larger gain of 0.85%. South Korea’s Kospi also rose by 0.88%, while the small-cap Kosdaq advanced 0.36%.

In Australia, the S&P/ASX 200 opened the week 0.82% higher. On Friday in the U.S., the Nasdaq Composite and S&P 500 fell for a sixth straight session, marking their longest losing streak since October 2022. This downtrend came as Nvidia plummeted, adding to recent market woes tied to geopolitical conflicts and persistent inflation. In contrast, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 0.56%, boosted by a rally of more than 6% in American Express following earnings.

Upcoming Events: 

• 12:30 PM GMT – CAD IPPI m/m
• 12:30 PM GMT – CAD RMPI m/m

The post Monday 22nd April 2024: Asian Markets Bounce Back on Fresh Data from China, Japan, and South Korea first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

DXY (US Dollar Index):

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

Factors contributing to the momentum is that price is: In a bullish ascending channel

Price could potentially make a: Bullish bounce off pivot and heads towards 1st resistance

Pivot: 104.95

Supporting reasons: Pullback support, indicating a level where buying pressure might increase, potentially providing a foundation for a bounce or continuation of the bullish momentum.

1st support: 104.00

Supporting reasons: Swing low support, suggesting a level where buyers have previously stepped in to support the price, potentially acting as a foundation for further upward movement.

1st resistance: 107.07

Supporting reasons: Swing high resistance, representing a level where selling pressure might intensify, potentially acting as a barrier to further upside movement.

EUR/USD:

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Factors contributing to the momentum is that price is: In a bearish descending channel

Price could potentially make a bearish reaction off the pivot and drop to the first support level.

PIvot: 1.0724

Supporting reasons: Pullback resistance, indicating a level where selling pressure might increase, potentially leading to a reversal or continuation of the bearish momentum.

1st support: 1.0609

Supporting reasons: Swing low support, suggesting a level where buyers have previously stepped in to support the price, potentially acting as a foundation for a bounce or temporary halt in the downward movement.

1st resistance: 1.0790

Supporting reasons: Pullback resistance, representing a level where selling pressure might intensify, potentially acting as a barrier to further downward movement. The 61.80% Fibonacci Retracement level also adds to the significance of this resistance level.

EUR/JPY:

Potential Direction: Neutral

Overall momentum of the chart: Neutral

Price could potentially fluctuate between the first support and first resistance levels.

1st support: 162.82

Supporting reasons: Swing low support, indicating a level where buyers have previously stepped in to support the price, potentially acting as a foundation for a bounce or temporary halt in the movement.

1st resistance: 165.24

Supporting reasons: Multi-swing high resistance, representing a level where selling pressure might intensify, potentially acting as a barrier to further upward movement.

EUR/GBP:

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

Price could potentially make a bullish bounce off the pivot and head towards the first resistance.

PIvot: 0.8588

Supporting reasons: Pullback support, indicating a level where buyers might step in to support the price, potentially providing a foundation for a bounce or continuation of the bullish momentum.

1st support: 0.8520

Supporting reasons: Swing low support, representing a level where buyers have previously intervened to support the price, potentially acting as a foundation for further upward movement.

1st resistance: 0.8660

Supporting reasons: Pullback resistance, indicating a level where selling pressure might intensify, potentially acting as a barrier to further upward movement.

GBP/USD:

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price could potentially make a bullish bounce off the pivot and head towards the first resistance.

PIvot: 1.2378

Supporting reasons: An Overlap support combined with the 61.80% Fibonacci Retracement, indicating a significant level where buyers might step in to support the price, potentially providing a foundation for a bounce or reversal of the bearish momentum.

1st support: 1.2193

Supporting reasons: Swing low support, representing a level where buyers have previously intervened to support the price, potentially acting as a foundation for further upward movement.

1st resistance: 1.2521

Supporting reasons: Pullback resistance combined with the 50% Fibonacci Retracement, suggesting a level where selling pressure might intensify, potentially acting as a barrier to further upward movement.

r to further upside movement within the context of the overall bearish trend.

GBP/JPY:

Potential Direction: Neutral
Overall momentum of the chart: Neutral

Price could potentially fluctuate between the 1st resistance and 1st support level.

1st support: 190.26
Supporting reasons: Multi-swing low support, indicating a level where buyers have historically stepped in to support the price, potentially acting as a foundation for a bounce or temporary halt in the momentum.

1st resistance: 192.41
Supporting reasons: Multi-swing high resistance, representing a level where selling pressure might increase, potentially acting as a barrier to further upside movement.

USD/CHF:

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price could potentially make a bearish continuation towards the 1st support.

PIvot: 0.9129

Supporting reasons: An Overlap resistance, indicating a significant level where selling pressure might intensify, potentially leading to a continuation of the bearish momentum.

1st support: 0.8896

Supporting reasons: Pullback support, representing a level where buyers might step in to support the price, potentially providing a foundation for a bounce or temporary halt in the bearish momentum. The 38.20% Fibonacci Retracement level adds to the significance of this support level.

1st resistance: 0.9339

Supporting reasons: Swing high resistance, suggesting a level where selling pressure might increase, potentially acting as a barrier to further upside movement within the context of the overall bearish trend.

USD/JPY:

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

Price could potentially make a bearish continuation towards the 1st support.

PIvot: 154.83

Supporting reasons: Multi-swing high resistance combined with the 78.60% Fibonacci Projection, indicating a significant level where selling pressure might intensify, potentially leading to a reversal or continuation of the bullish momentum.

1st support: 151.75

Supporting reasons: Pullback support, representing a level where buyers might step in to support the price, potentially providing a foundation for a bounce or temporary halt in the bullish momentum.

1st resistance: 157.19

Supporting reasons: 100% Fibonacci Projection, suggesting a level where selling pressure might increase, potentially acting as a barrier to further upside movement within the context of the overall bullish trend.

USD/CAD:

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price could fall towards the pivot and potentially make a bullish bounce off this level to rise towards the 1st resistance

Pivot: 1.3616

Supporting reasons: Acts as a pullback support that aligns with a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level, suggesting a significant area where price could find a solid foundation for potential price stabilization or a rebound.

1st support: 1.3448

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns with a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level, suggesting an area where price has previously found strong buying interest to provide a foundation for potential price stabilization.

1st resistance: 1.3847

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, marking a significant barrier that could cap further upward movements.

AUD/USD:

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price could rise towards the pivot and potentially make a bearish reaction off this level to drop towards the 1st support

Pivot: 0.6478

Supporting reasons: Acts as an overlap resistance that aligns close to a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level, suggesting a significant area where price has previously faced strong selling pressures and could stall around this level before reversing to drop lower.

1st support: 0.6340

Supporting reasons: Acts as a pullback support, suggesting a significant area where price has previously found strong support and could provide a basis to halt further downward movement.

1st resistance: 0.6641

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, marking a barrier that has previously capped upward movements.

NZD/USD

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price could rise towards the pivot and potentially make a bearish reaction off this level to drop towards the 1st support

Pivot: 0.5952

Supporting reasons: Acts as an overlap resistance that aligns close to a 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level, suggesting a significant area where price has previously faced strong selling pressures and could stall around this level before reversing to drop lower.

1st support: 0.5870

Supporting reasons: Acts as a pullback support, suggesting a potential area for price stabilization or a minor rebound within the bearish context.

1st resistance: 0.6059

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns close to a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level, marking a barrier that has previously capped upward movements.

US30 (DJIA):

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price could rise towards the pivot and potentially make a bearish reaction off this level to drop towards the 1st support

Pivot: 38,549.85

Supporting reasons: Acts as an overlap resistance that aligns with a 50% Fibonacci retracement level, suggesting a significant area where price has previously faced strong selling pressures and could stall around this level before reversing to drop lower.

1st support: 37,142.72

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns with a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level, suggesting a significant area where price has previously found strong buying interest and could provide a solid foundation to halt further downward movement.

1st resistance: 39,886.63

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-high resistance at the all-time high, indicating a potential barrier that could cap any upward movements.

DE40 (DAX):

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price has made a bullish reaction off the pivot and could potentially rise towards the 1st resistance

Pivot: 17,680.30

Supporting reasons: Acts as a pullback support that aligns with a 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level, suggesting a significant area where price has previously found strong buying interest and could provide a solid foundation for potential price stabilization or a rebound.

1st support: 17,004.20

Supporting reasons: Acts as an overlap support that aligns with a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level, suggesting a significant area where price has previously found strong buying interest and could provide a solid foundation to halt further downward movement.

1st resistance: 18,560.76

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance at the all-time high, potentially functioning as a barrier that could cap any upward movements.

US500 (S&P 500): 

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price could fall towards the pivot and potentially make a bullish bounce off this level to rise towards the 1st resistance

Pivot: 4,847.20

Supporting reasons: Acts as a pullback support that aligns close to a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level, suggesting a significant area where price has previously found strong buying interest and could provide a solid foundation for potential price stabilization or a rebound.

1st support: 4,691.20

Supporting reasons: Acts as a pullback support that aligns with a 50% Fibonacci retracement level suggesting a significant area where price has previously found strong buying interest, providing a solid foundation to halt further downward movement.

1st resistance: 5,049.10

Supporting reasons: Marked by an overlap resistance, which could function as a potential barrier and cap any upward movements.

BTC/USD (Bitcoin):

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Neutral

Price has made a bullish reaction off the pivot and could potentially rise towards the 1st resistance

Pivot: 61,137.02

Supporting reasons: Acts as a pullback support that aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level, suggesting a significant area where price has previously found strong buying interest and could provide a solid foundation for potential price stabilization or a rebound.

1st support: 52,090.03

Supporting reasons: Acts as a pullback support that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level, suggesting a significant area where price has previously found support and could provide a strong foundation to halt further downward movements.

1st resistance: 71,810.70

Supporting reasons: Marked by a pullback resistance close to the all-time high, indicating a significant barrier that could cap further upward movements.

ETH/USD (Ethereum):

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price has made a bullish reaction off the pivot and could potentially rise towards the 1st resistance

Pivot: 2,847.25

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support that aligns close to a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level, suggesting a significant area where price has previously found support and could provide a strong foundation for a potential rebound.

1st support: 2,614.14

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support that aligns close to a 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level suggesting a significant area where price has previously found support, providing a strong foundation to halt further downward movements.

1st resistance: 3,687.36

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, marking a significant barrier that could cap further upward movements.

WTI/USD (Oil):

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price could potentially make a bullish reaction off the pivot and rise towards the 1st resistance

Pivot: 80.96

Supporting reasons: Acts as an overlap support that aligns close to a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level, suggesting a significant area where price has previously found support to provide a strong foundation for a potential rebound.

1st support: 76.53

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, suggesting a significant area where price has previously found strong buying interest and could provide a solid foundation to halt further downward movements.

1st resistance: 87.22

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, marking a significant barrier that could cap further upward movements.

XAU/USD (GOLD):

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

Price could potentially make a bearish reaction off pivot and drop to the 1st support.

PIvot: 2391.62

Supporting reasons: Swing high resistance, indicating a significant level where selling pressure might intensify, potentially leading to a reversal or continuation of the bullish momentum.

1st support: 2326.38

Supporting reasons: Swing low support combined with the 23.60% Fibonacci Retracement, suggesting a level where buyers might step in to support the price, potentially providing a foundation for a bounce or temporary halt in the bullish momentum.

1st resistance: 2432.00

Supporting reasons: Swing high resistance, representing a level where selling pressure might increase, potentially acting as a barrier to further upside movement within the context of the overall bullish trend.

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The post Monday 22nd April 2024: Technical Outlook and Review first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

IC Markets Asia Fundamental Forecast | 22 April 2024

What happened in the US session?

UK retail sales missed market expectations of an increase of 0.3% by coming in flat for the month of March – this latest reading marked the second consecutive month of poor sales. Despite the disappointing result, the Pound strengthened following this news release as GBP/USD rose as high as 1.2468 during the US session before reversing sharply to end the week at 1.2369. Demand for the dollar returned last Friday as the dollar index (DXY) rebounded from 105.85 to close out the week at 106.11 to register a second weekly gain for the greenback – the DXY has gained nearly 1.85% or 180 pips over this period.

What does it mean for the Asia Session?

The DXY slid lower at today’s open with this index dipping under 106 while spot prices for gold also headed lower. This precious metal was trading around $2,375/oz and could continue to drift lower in the initial part of the new trading day. The dollar and gold are exhibiting positive correlation today, something that usually does not occur regularly – traders should be aware of this correlation and take note when normalcy resumes i.e. dollar and gold expressing negative correlation once again.

The Dollar Index (DXY)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from DXY today?

The DXY slid lower at today’s open with this index dipping under 106. The dollar and gold are exhibiting positive correlation today, something that usually does not occur regularly – traders should be aware of this correlation and take note when normalcy resumes i.e. dollar and gold expressing negative correlation once again.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Federal Funds Rate target range remained unchanged at 5.25% to 5.50% for the fifth meeting in a row.
• The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2% over the longer run and judges that the risks to achieving its employment and inflation goals are moving into better balance.
• The economic outlook is uncertain, and the Committee remains highly attentive to inflation risks; inflation has eased over the past year but remains elevated.
• Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has been expanding at a solid pace while job gains have remained strong, and the unemployment rate has remained low.
• In considering any adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will carefully assess incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks and does not expect it will be appropriate to reduce the target range until it has gained greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward 2%.
• In addition, the Committee will continue reducing its holdings of Treasury securities and agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities, as described in its previously announced plans.
• Next meeting runs from 30 April to 1 May 2024.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bearish

Gold (XAU)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from Gold today?

After hitting the all-time high of $2,432.02/oz in the second week of April, prices for spot gold were retreating at today’s open. This precious metal gapped lower to open at $2,382/oz and edged lower to trade around $2,375/oz at the beginning of the Asia session.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bearish

The Australian Dollar (AUD)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from AUD today?

Demand for the Aussie picked up strongly at the open as it bounced strongly off the 0.6410-level. This currency pair was rising towards 0.6460 as Asian markets came online and it could continue to retrace higher as the day progresses.

Central Bank Notes:

• The RBA kept the cash rate target unchanged at 4.35%, marking the seventh pause out of the last eight board meetings.
• The headline monthly CPI indicator was steady at 3.4% over the year to January, with momentum easing over recent months, driven by moderating goods inflation. Services inflation remains elevated and is moderating at a more gradual pace.
• The central forecasts are for inflation to return to the target range of 2–3% in 2025, and to the midpoint in 2026.
• While recent data indicate that inflation is easing, it remains high. The Board expects that it will be some time yet before inflation is sustainably in the target range.
• The path of interest rates that will best ensure that inflation returns to target in a reasonable timeframe remains uncertain and the Board is not ruling anything in or out.
• Next meeting is on 7 May 2024.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bullish

The Kiwi Dollar (NZD)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from NZD today?

Demand for the Kiwi was strong at the open causing it to bounce strongly off the 0.5880-level. This currency pair was rising towards 0.5930 at the beginning of the Asia session and it is expected to remain elevated today.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Monetary Policy Committee kept the OCR unchanged at 5.50% for the sixth meeting in a row.
• The Committee remains confident that the current level of the OCR is contributing to an easing in capacity pressures to ensure inflation returns to target.
• However, current consumer price inflation remains above the Committee’s 1 to 3% target range. A restrictive monetary policy stance remains necessary to further reduce capacity pressures and inflation.
• The Committee discussed upside risks to the inflation outlook: persistent services inflation remains a risk and goods price inflation remains elevated while anticipated near-term increases to local government rates, insurance, and utility costs, could also further slow the decline in headline inflation.
• The Committee discussed downside risks to the inflation outlook: ongoing restrictive monetary policy in an environment of weak global growth could lead to a more rapid decline in inflation than expected. Business and consumer confidence remain particularly weak which could lead to more unemployment and financial stress than expected while structural challenges facing the economy in China remain a concern given its importance for the global economy and for New Zealand’s trade.
• Next meeting is on 10 July 2024.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bullish

The Japanese Yen (JPY)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from JPY today?

Despite the Bank of Japan (BoJ) hiking its key policy rate at the previous central bank meeting and inflationary pressures starting to take root in Japan, the yen remains weak as USD/JPY hit a high of 154.83 last week. This currency pair gapped lower this morning to open at 154.38 but it rebounded above 154.70 as Asian markets came online. Tailwinds remain for USD/JPY but traders should watch out for any potential intervention measures by the BoJ which could cause sharp drops for this currency pair as well as the yen crosses.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Bank considers that the policy framework of Quantitative and Qualitative Monetary Easing (QQE) with Yield Curve Control and the negative interest rate policy to date have fulfilled their roles. With the price stability target of 2%, it will conduct monetary policy as appropriate, guiding the short-term interest rate as a primary policy tool.
• The Bank of Japan decided on the following measures:
  1. The Bank will encourage the uncollateralized overnight call rate to remain at around 0 to 0.1% while continuing its JGB purchases with broadly the same amount as before.
  2. In addition, the Bank will discontinue purchases of exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and Japan real estate investment trusts (J-REITs) and will also gradually reduce the amount of purchases of CP and corporate bonds and will discontinue the purchases in about one year.
• Underlying CPI inflation is likely to increase gradually toward achieving the price stability target of 2%, as the output gap turns positive and as medium- to long-term inflation expectations and wage growth rise.
• Japan’s economy is likely to continue recovering moderately for the time being, supported by factors such as the materialization of pent-up demand, although it is expected to be under downward pressure stemming from a slowdown in the pace of recovery in overseas economies.
• Next meeting is on 26 April 2024.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish

The Euro (EUR)

Key news events today

ECB President Lagarde Speaks (3:30 pm GMT)

What can we expect from EUR today?

ECB President Christine Lagarde is due to speak at Yale University in the US where she could drop further clues on the direction of future monetary policy action in the Euro Area. The Euro has shed almost 1.8% or 190 pips over the last couple of weeks as demand for the dollar jumped significantly. This currency pair opened at around 1.0650 to climb higher towards 1.0670 at the beginning of the Asia session.

Central Bank Notes:

• The ECB kept the three key interest rates unchanged for a fifth consecutive meeting, keeping the main refinancing rate on hold at 4.50%.
• Inflation has continued to fall, led by lower food and goods price inflation with most measures of underlying inflation easing, wage growth is gradually moderating, and firms are absorbing part of the rise in labour costs in their profits.
• Financing conditions remain restrictive and the past interest rate increases continue to weigh on demand, which is helping to push down inflation but domestic price pressures are strong and are keeping services price inflation high.
• The Governing Council is determined to ensure that inflation returns to its 2% medium-term target in a timely manner and if the Council’s updated assessment of the inflation outlook, the dynamics of underlying inflation and the strength of monetary policy transmission were to further increase its confidence that inflation is converging to the target in a sustained manner, it would be appropriate to reduce the current level of monetary policy restriction.
• Next meeting is on 6 June 2024.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish

The Swiss Franc (CHF)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from CHF today?

The Swiss franc strengthened significantly last week causing USD/CHF to tumble as low as 0.9011, losing almost 100 pips before reversing sharply to erase nearly all the initial loss. This currency pair closed at 0.9101 last Friday and opened to edge higher this morning and is likely to remain elevated today.

Central Bank Notes:

• The SNB eased monetary policy by lowering its key policy rate by 25 basis points, going from 1.75% to 1.50% in March.
• For some months now, inflation has been back below 2% and thus in the range the SNB equates with price stability.
• According to the new forecast, inflation is also likely to remain in this range over the next few years.
• The forecast puts average annual inflation at 1.4% for 2024, 1.2% for 2025 and 1.1% for 2026, based on the assumption that the SNB policy rate is 1.5% over the entire forecast horizon.
• Swiss GDP growth was moderate in the fourth quarter of last year and it is likely to remain modest in the coming quarters.
• Overall, Switzerland’s GDP is likely to grow by around 1% this year.
• Next meeting is on 20 June 2024.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish

The Pound (GBP)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from GBP today?

After falling 2.1% over the last couple of weeks, the Pound looks to have found support around 1.2360 as it bounced quite strongly off this level at today’s open. GBP/USD was trading around 1.2390 as Asian markets came online and could continue to climb higher as the day progresses.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted by a majority of 8-to-1 to maintain its Official Bank Rate at 5.25% for the fifth consecutive meeting.
• One member preferred to reduce the Bank Rate by 25 basis points to 5.0%.
• Twelve-month CPI inflation fell to 3.4% in February from 4.0% in January and December while Services consumer price inflation has declined but remains elevated, at 6.1% in February.
• CPI inflation is projected to fall to slightly below the 2% target in 2024 Q2, marginally weaker than previously expected owing to the freeze in fuel duty announced in the Budget.
• In the February Report projection, CPI inflation had been expected to fall temporarily to the 2% target in 2024 Q2 before increasing again in Q3 and Q4, to around 2.75%.
• Having declined through the second half of last year, UK GDP and market sector output are expected to start growing again during the first half of this year while the fiscal measures in Spring Budget 2024 are likely to increase the level of GDP by around 0.25% over coming years.
• Next meeting is on 9 May 2024.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish

The Canadian Dollar (CAD)

Key news events today

IPPI (12:30 pm GMT)

RMPI (12:30 pm GMT)

What can we expect from CAD today?

The Industrial Product Price Index (IPPI) – which measures factory gate and producer prices – and the Raw Materials Price Index will provide further insight into the level of inflation in Canada’s manufacturing and industrial production sectors. Although inflation has retreated quite steadily over the past ten to twelve months, inflationary pressures are beginning to take root as evident in the recent month-over-month IPPI and RMPI. Should these indices beat market expectations, it could function as a near-term bullish catalyst for the Loonie and potentially cause USD/CAD to pull back further today.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Bank of Canada held its target for the overnight rate at 5.0% for the fifth meeting in a row while continuing its policy of quantitative tightening.
• Canada’s economy stalled in the second half of last year and the economy moved into excess supply but economic growth is forecasted to pick up in 2024. Overall, the Bank forecasts GDP growth of 1.5% in 2024, 2.2% in 2025, and 1.9% in 2026.
• CPI inflation slowed to 2.8% in February, with easing in price pressures becoming more broad-based across goods and services. However, shelter price inflation is still very elevated, driven by growth in rent and mortgage interest costs.
• Core measures of inflation, which had been running around 3.5%, slowed to just over 3% in February, and 3-month annualized rates are suggesting downward momentum. The Bank expects CPI inflation to be close to 3% during the first half of this year, move below 2.5% in the second half, and reach the 2% inflation target in 2025.
• The Governing Council is particularly watching the evolution of core inflation, and continues to focus on the balance between demand and supply in the economy, inflation expectations, wage growth, and corporate pricing behaviour.
• While inflation is still too high and risks remain, CPI and core inflation have eased further in recent months and the Council will be looking for evidence that this downward momentum is sustained.
• Next meeting is on 5 June 2024.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bearish

Oil

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from Oil today?

Prices for crude oil declined over the last couple of weeks with WTI oil losing 4.3% over this period. WTI oil dropped as low as $81.70 per barrel last week and this downward slide looks to have resumed at today’s open. Despite the ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, downward pressures are building due to weaker crude demand in the US as observed in the inventory builds reported by the API and EIA in recent weeks.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bearish

The post IC Markets Asia Fundamental Forecast | 22 April 2024 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

Tech Stocks Tumble Ahead of Earnings – Nasdaq Down 2% 

Tech Stocks took a hit in trading on Friday as investors looked ahead to a raft of earnings reports from major players this week. The Dow bucked the trend, closing the day up 0.56%, but the S&P and Nasdaq both took strong hits into the weekend, finishing down 0.88% and 2.05% respectively. US Treasury yields dropped off recent highs, the 2-year losing 1.5 basis points to trade at 4.975% and the 10-year falling 3 basis points back to 4.617%. The dollar finished slightly below previous levels but remains well-bid against most of the majors. Oil drifted higher with Middle East tensions still very much at the forefront of trader’s minds, Brent adding 0.21% to trade at $87.29 and WTI gaining 0.5% up to $83.14 a barrel. Gold pushed higher again as well, trading up 0.7% and closing around the $2,390 level.  

This Week’s Earnings Numbers Crucial  

This week’s earning numbers in the US could be crucial for the next few months trading in stock markets. The major US indices are off recent historic high levels but remain relatively strong and the data coming out of major tech companies this week is seen by many investors as being more important this time around. Tesla, Meta, Alphabet, and Microsoft are all set to release their quarterly numbers and with all having a heavy weighting in the index, traders are braced for more volatility in the days ahead, especially in the New York trading sessions. The price action ahead for this week could be pivotal and will soon tell us if recent corrective moves have been driven by changes in fundamentals from the Fed or if some harder moves are coming.  

Quiet Start to a Busy Week

The week kicks off with a relatively muted calendar day although risk trades are expected to start the bid as tensions appear to be easing in the Middle East. The Asian session sees the main data release of the day when we have the Chinese Prime Loan rates released to the market, the expectation is for no change in the key 1-year and 5-year numbers, but investors will be hoping for signs of further stimulus for the market. The calendar is relatively quiet for the other two sessions of the day although Euro traders will be paying close attention to comments from ECB President Christine LaGarde when she speaks at Yale University during the US session.  

The post General Market Analysis 22/04/2024 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

Traders are bracing themselves for another busy week ahead as volatility looks set to remain high. A mixture of key data releases, geopolitical concerns, and central bank calls is combining to hit markets at fragile levels. In addition to the above, earnings season in the US is really picking up this week with some big tech companies due to report quarterly data.

Here’s our usual day-by-day breakdown of the major economies’ scheduled risk events:

The week kicks off with a muted event calendar, but traders are still expecting lively sessions ahead after the volatile action of the previous week. The main data focus of the day will come in the Asian session when China updates the market on its Prime Loan rates. Investors once again hope for some stimulus. The other two sessions are relatively quiet, although Euro traders will be paying close attention to comments from ECB President Christine Lagarde later in the day.

There’s little on the calendar in the APAC session, but we have a plethora of Flash Services and Manufacturing PMI numbers throughout the rest of the day. Data is set to come from France, Germany, the Eurozone, the UK, and the US. New Home Sales and the Richmond Manufacturing Index numbers are also due out later in the New York session.

One of the key data points of the week is due early in the Asian session with the Australian CPI numbers set for release. The London session is relatively quiet with just the German Ifo number due out. The New York session could be livelier with Retail Sales numbers from Canada and Durable Goods from the US set to hit the market early in the day.

A quieter start to the trading day is expected in Asia on Thursday with both Australian and New Zealand markets closed for ANZAC Day. There’s little else on the calendar for the remainder of the session and indeed into the European day. However, the US session should see some more action. The weekly unemployment claims numbers are due out early in the day, alongside the latest GDP update, and later the Pending Home Sales data is also set to hit the screens.

The week looks set to finish on a high note with two major events bookending the day. First up in the Asian session is the latest rate call from the Bank of Japan, which could see some strong moves in the market given the level of the Yen. The London session is set to be quieter, although Swiss traders will be paying close attention to comments from the SNB’s Thomas Jordan early on. The week’s major data release is scheduled for the final session with the Core PCE Price Index update due out early in the US session. Acknowledged as the Fed’s favoured inflation indicator, we could see strong moves in the market leading into the weekend.

The post The Week Ahead – Week Commencing 22 April 2024 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

With the Bitcoin halving event less than a day away, the crypto community is buzzing with anticipation. This pivotal event is scheduled to occur on April 20, 2024, at precisely 01:54 GMT+2. Such events, which happen approximately every four years, have historically been turning points for the currency’s value, often leading to substantial price increases in the months that follow.

What is Bitcoin Halving?

Bitcoin halving refers to the reduction of the reward for mining new blocks by half. This mechanism, embedded in Bitcoin’s code, effectively reduces the rate at which new bitcoins are created and thus limits the total supply, creating potential for price increase due to supply scarcity.

Historical Impact

Looking back at the previous halvings, each has been followed by a notable rise in Bitcoin’s price. This pattern suggests a bullish outcome, though it’s important to approach with cautious optimism. The crypto market is notoriously volatile, and past performance is not indicative of future results.

How to Prepare

For those looking to capitalize on the halving event, here are a few tips:

Stay Informed: Keep up with the latest market trends and news. The crypto landscape can change rapidly, and staying informed will help you make educated decisions.

Assess Your Investment Strategy: Consider how the halving may impact your long-term investment strategy. Some investors may see it as a time to buy, while others might view it as an opportunity to sell into a potentially bullish market.

Risk Management: Always consider your risk tolerance and ensure your investment does not expose you to undue financial hardship.

Final Thoughts

As the countdown to the halving continues, the next few hours could be crucial for those looking to leverage the halving event. Whether you’re a seasoned trader or new to the crypto world, now is the time to scrutinize your strategy and decide how best to move forward.

Remember, while the potential for profit exists, it’s important to approach with caution and to make decisions based on thorough analysis and sound financial principles.

The post Bitcoin Halving Is Imminent: What You Need to Know and How to Prepare first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

Global Markets:

•  Asian Stock Markets : Nikkei down 2.14%, Shanghai Composite down 0.29%, Hang Seng down 1.05% ASX down 1.14%
• Commodities : Gold at $2405.5 (0.36%), Silver at $28.57 (0.62%), Brent Oil at $87.93 (0.98%), WTI Oil at $83.67 (1.14%)
• Rates : US 10-year yield at 4.58, UK 10-year yield at 4.27, Germany 10-year yield at 2.458

News & Data:

• (USD) Natural Gas Storage 50B vs 54B expected

Markets Update:

Market losses rippled across Asia on Friday, spearheaded by Taiwan’s Weighted Index plunging 3.81% to its lowest in over a month at 19,527.12. This decline was fueled by escalating tensions in the Middle East, prompting sell-offs in major regional markets.

Reports of Israel’s limited strike in Iran intensified the downturn, triggering a sell-off in stocks and risk assets, while safe-haven assets like gold surged. The Japanese yen strengthened, contrasting sharply with bitcoin’s significant drop.

Oil prices surged over 3%, with Brent crude futures briefly topping $90 a barrel before settling just above $89. Meanwhile, U.S. stock futures dipped over 1% before a slight recovery.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 fell 2.14%, closing at 37,068.35, while the broader Topix index declined 1.91% to 2,626.32, marking a weekly drop of 3.65%. Japan’s March inflation data showed a headline rate of 2.7%, with the core inflation rate remaining at 2.6%.

South Korea’s Kospi index closed 1.63% lower at 2,591.86, with the Kosdaq falling 1.61% to 841.91. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 index lost 1.14%, marking its sixth decline in seven days. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index dropped 1.05%, while the mainland Chinese CSI 300 slipped 0.77%. On Wall Street, the S&P 500 recorded its fifth consecutive day of losses, while the Nasdaq Composite fell 0.52%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average added a marginal 0.06%, closing just above its 2024 flatline.

Upcoming Events: 

• 2:15 PM GMT – GBP MPC Member Breeden Speaks
• 2:15 PM GMT – GBP MPC Member Ramsden Speaks

The post Friday 19th April 2024: Asian markets tumble amid Middle East tensions first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.