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This is a strange one:

Al-Arabiya cites a Channel 12 report, which is an Israeli TV station but says that Israel is preparing to announce the failure of negotiations with Iran

It’s strange because Israel isn’t negotiating with Iran, the US is. Israel is negotiating with Lebanon so maybe something is lost in translation along the way.

I don’t think anyone knows what Trump will announce (including perhaps Trump himself) so I would be skeptical of this report, but it’s making the rounds.

What is clear is that negotiations don’t appear to be making progress, though often it happens where you don’t see it. WTI crude oil is down $2.45 to $104.41 after rising as high as $110.93 earlier today so that’s a good sign.

Russian media reports that in a phone call with Trump, Russia’s Putin pointed out that if the US and Israel resume military operation, this would inevitably lead to extremely adverse consequences not only for Iran and its neighbours, but for entire international community. He also stressed that a ground operation on Iranian territory would be particularly unacceptable and dangerous.

Meanwhile, the Pakistani leaks are starting again and say they expect a revised Iranian proposal to end the war by the end of the week. We’ve certainly heard that kind of thing before but let’s hope it’s for real this time.

That’s from MS Now who reports this:

Two Pakistani officials in Islamabad with direct knowledge of the talks between the U.S. and Iran told MS NOW they expect a revised Iranian proposal to end the war by the end of the week.

The officials, who spoke on condition of anonymity given the sensitivity around the talks, said they will then share Iran’s proposal with U.S. negotiators and push for an in-person meeting between both sides early next week.

Both the U.S. and Iran are “focused on diplomatic solutions” to bring the war to an end, they said.

Maybe the sides aren’t that far apart.

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

The S&P 500 has extended today’s gain to 38 points, or 0.5%. It has been 13 points lower at the lows as the market digests five big earnings reports from late yesterday and one from this morning. The reactions in those names:

• MSFT -5.5%
• META -8.9%
• GOOGL +7.7%
• AMZN -1.4%
• QCOM +16%.
• CAT +10.1%

The tech names are truly a mixed bag but I think the chip names are actually more important this point. The hyperscalers are incinerating cash but they increased capex again in the quarter and that’s a good sign for the $700 billion that’s flowing downstream from it.

For the broader market, I wonder if Caterpillar wasn’t a stronger signal.

“While there is increased uncertainty due to geopolitical events and elevated energy prices, our end markets have been resilient.”

At the same time, CAT itself cited AI capex as a big driver for its earnings, particularly in power generation.

Another notable name to report was Royal Caribbean Cruise Lines and shares of that company rose 6.7% in a positive view on the consumer.

“Consumers… remain very healthy, supported by excess cash, strong employment trends and a continued preference for consuming experiences over purchasing things,” an Jason Liberty, Chairman and CEO. “We are not turning the corner. We have turned the corner… the moderation that we saw has turned.”

Even on the war, he said the consumer only briefly dipped.

“The softer booking trends lasted for a few weeks, but we have now turned a corner,” Liberty said.

Today we get earnings from Apple, which has generally stayed out of the AI race but could stand to benefit from it if there is a meaningful change in on-device usage. Though some argue that AI could take us away from our phones.

As for the stock market, there is somewhat of a lift today from dipping oil prices, a lower USD and declining Treasury yields. Those are typical moves around optimism that the war is ending, though the headlines today don’t exactly support that.

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.