Oil Drops Hard on Peace Hope – Brent down 7%
Markets opened the week with improving risk sentiment despite subdued trading conditions, as several major financial centres remained closed for extended public holidays, including the United States, where equity and bond markets were shut for Memorial Day. As a result, US stock indices and Treasury yields were unchanged, with the Dow Jones holding at 50,579, the S&P 500 at 7,473, and the Nasdaq at 26,343, while the US 2-year Treasury yield remained at 4.121% and the 10-year yield held at 4.558%.

Investor sentiment was driven primarily by increasing optimism surrounding Middle East peace negotiations, with Iranian officials reportedly in Qatar for ongoing discussions. While rhetoric from both Washington and Tehran suggested progress is being made, officials also acknowledged that several key issues still need to be resolved before any formal agreement can be be reached.

Currency markets remained active despite the US holiday, with the US dollar index slipping 0.27% to 98.98 as traders unwound some safe-haven positioning amid the improving geopolitical backdrop. The softer dollar also helped underpin precious metals, with gold rising 1.35% to close at $4,570.51.

Oil prices saw the largest moves of the session, tumbling sharply as traders priced in the possibility of easing supply risks in the Gulf region. Brent crude fell 7.15% to $96.14 per barrel, while WTI crude declined 6.30% to $90.30. Market sentiment was boosted by reports suggesting the Strait of Hormuz could potentially reopen within 30 days of any peace agreement being signed, easing fears around global energy supply disruptions.

Traders Eyeing Up Further Downside Moves for Oil
Oil traders are starting to assess the potential for more extended downside moves in the coming days as a resolution in the Strait of Hormuz starts to look more and more likely. WTI rallied nearly 80% in the first trading week of the conflict, as it jumped from beneath $70 a barrel to hit a high just under $120 a barrel. It has dropped nearly 20% in the last week, from $110 to trade around $91 close to recent lows, as hopes have increased that the Strait will reopen, allowing a fifth of the world’s oil supply to start moving again. From a technical perspective, WTI is now trading close to strong support levels, and further positive news of peace should see the May low, just under $89, break and open the way for a move towards longer-term trendline support on the daily chart, down around the $80 mark. Any signs that hostilities could resume would see some hard rallies, with Friday’s close near $96 the first likely level of resistance.

Trading to Pick Up Today as Major Centres Return
Traders are anticipating a much busier trading session ahead today as full market participation returns. With limited economic data due today, geopolitical developments are expected to remain the key driver of short-term market direction. The Asian session is expected to start on the front foot again as optimism over a Middle East peace deal continues to increase after President Trump advised that a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz was “proceeding nicely”. There is nothing on the economic calendar in the first two trading sessions of the day, and if all remains equal, the European shift should start on a positive basis as well. We do have the first key US data drop of the week today in the New York session, with the CB Consumer Confidence number due out, with the market expecting a 91.9 print. However, traders are expecting news-driven flow to dictate moves.

Explore all upcoming market events in the Economic Calendar.

The post General Market Analysis – 26/05/26 first appeared on IC Your Trading Edge | Official Blog.

IC Markets Global – Asia Fundamental Forecast | 26 May 2026

What happened in the U.S. session?

Hopes of a Middle East peace breakthrough lifted equities and pressured crude oil and the dollar, while Treasury markets stayed sensitive to Fed commentary and upcoming data rather than reacting to a major surprise release. In practical trading terms, the instruments most affected were oil, FX, and U.S. equity futures, with bonds reacting more modestly to rate expectations than to a fresh economic print.

What does it mean for the Asia Session?

Escalating Middle‑East‑linked supply‑chain risks, subtle shifts in US dollar and equity sentiment, and domestic‑policy signals from key regional central banks, all of which can tilt the region toward either cautious risk‑on positioning in equities and carry plays, or a defensive rotation into JPY, gold, and high‑quality bonds if geopolitical or data‑release risks flare up.

​
The Dollar Index (DXY)

Key news events today

CB Consumer Confidence (2:00 pm GMT)

What can we expect from DXY today?

The U.S. dollar started the week on a stronger footing, lifted by renewed expectations that the Federal Reserve may hike rates later this year as inflation pressures from higher energy prices persist. The dollar index has held near recent multi‑week highs, benefiting from higher U.S. Treasury yields and a cautious, risk‑off mood in global markets as investors weigh spillovers from geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and uncertainty over trade and policy signals from Washington.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is widely expected to hold the federal funds rate target range steady at 3.50%–3.75% at its April 28–29, 2026, meeting, as oil prices remain elevated around $108 per barrel for Brent crude amid ongoing US-Israel tensions with Iran, alongside surging inflation from energy shocks, further delaying any 2026 rate cuts potentially beyond September.
• The Committee continues to pursue maximum employment and 2% inflation goals, with the labor market showing mixed signals as nonfarm payrolls rose by 178,000 in March 2026—beating lowered expectations but driven partly by strike reversals—and the unemployment rate edged down to 4.3% from 4.4% in February.
• Officials face heightened risks from geopolitical tensions, soaring oil prices, and accelerating inflation, with CPI jumping to 3.3% year-over-year in March 2026 from 2.4% in February due to a 10.9% monthly energy surge, headline PCE pressured higher, and core PCE estimates around 3.1% or more.
• Economic activity continues to cool after robust Q4 2025 growth near 5%, with the Atlanta Fed GDPNow estimating Q1 2026 growth at 1.3% amid softer consumer spending, strike impacts, and labor data despite some resilience.
• March 2026’s Summary of Economic Projections forecasts 2026 unemployment at a median around 4.4%, GDP growth revised higher, and core PCE up to 2.7%, with the dot plot still signaling one cut in 2026 to a median 3.25%–3.50% funds rate amid softer labor but inflation upticks.
• The Committee maintains its data-dependent stance amid a mixed labor market, inflation well above target from oil shocks, and geopolitical risks, likely holding rates at 3.50%-3.75% with persistent divisions and hawkish tones on cuts.
• The FOMC continues its adjusted quantitative tightening, with Treasury rolloff caps at $5 billion per month and agency MBS at $35 billion per month to manage reserves amid post-2025 balance sheet adjustments.
• The next meeting is scheduled for 16 to 17 June 2026.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bullish

Gold (XAU)

Key news events today

CB Consumer Confidence (2:00 pm GMT)

What can we expect from Gold today?

Gold is trading just above $4,500 per ounce, consolidating after a mid‑May dip and remaining sensitive to U.S.‑dollar moves and Fed‑rate expectations; while support near $4,455 is seen as a key technical line, the broader backdrop of geopolitical risk and central‑bank buying continues to underpin the metal’s high‑valuation environment despite increased near‑term volatility.

Next 24 Hours Bias
Weak Bearish

The Australian Dollar (AUD)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from AUD today?

The Australian dollar has been strengthening in 2026, up more than 6% year-to-date and becoming the top-performing G10 currency as markets price in a hawkish Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) outlook, including an ~80% chance of a rate hike in May 2026 that could push the cash rate toward 4.10%. Recent trading has been cautious ahead of Australia’s 2026 budget release, with the AUD hovering around 0.7230 against the USD in mid-May amid risk-off sentiment tied to US–Iran tensions and anticipation of the Trump–Xi meeting.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) raised its cash rate by 25 basis points to 4.35% at the 5 May 2026 meeting, moving into a more restrictive stance as inflation pressures re‑accelerated and the board judged the previous 4.10% level insufficient to re‑anchor the medium‑term outlook.
• The RBA lifted the cash rate from 4.10% to 4.35% at the 5 May meeting in an 8–1 vote, flagging that the stance is now “more restrictive” and that the Council sees a low but non‑trivial chance of further hikes if inflation risks crystallise.
• Headline CPI has jumped to 4.6% year‑on‑year for the 12 months to March 2026, up from around 3.7% in February, with trimmed‑mean inflation still above 3.0% (about 3.3–3.8% depending on the series), keeping inflation clearly outside the 2–3% target band.
• Recent monthly indicators remain sticky in services, housing‑related costs, and discretionary spending, with January and March data showing only modest easing and some upside surprises in housing‑price‑related components, underpinning the case for a stronger‑than‑expected May hike.
• Global growth has been modestly revised up but remains tempered by ongoing geopolitical tensions, commodity‑price volatility, and elevated oil prices linked to the Middle East conflict, which directly feed into Australian import‑price and transport‑cost inflation.
• Markets now price the cash rate at 4.35% in June, with futures pathways suggesting a high‑probability hold at the June meeting and only a modest chance of another 25bp hike later in 2026, contingent on further upside in CPI or services‑price data.
• The RBA continues to emphasise its “data‑dependent” approach under the dual mandate, seeking to bring inflation back toward target without materially undershooting growth or employment, while acknowledging that the Middle East‑driven shock has shifted the path of inflation and policy.
• The May communication leaned hawkishly neutral to hawkish, with the decision to hike by 25bp and a run‑of‑material referencing rising inflation expectations and the risk of second‑round effects, while still leaving room for a pause in June if upcoming monthly CPI and labour‑force data show a moderating trend.
• The next meeting is on 15 to 16 June 2026.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bullish

The Kiwi Dollar (NZD)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from NZD today?

The New Zealand dollar is holding firmer versus the US dollar around 0.587–0.589, supported by mild risk‑on conditions and expectations that the RBNZ will remain relatively hawkish compared with a Fed anticipated to deliver fewer cuts, while the RBNZ’s own concerns about exchange‑rate strength have kept gains in check and capped aggressive upside, leaving the kiwi in a cautiously constructive but still range‑bound environment.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is widely expected to hold the Official Cash Rate (OCR) steady at 2.25% at its 8 April 2026 Monetary Policy Review, aligning with unanimous market consensus from Reuters polls and previews.
• The MPC continues its data-dependent “wait-and-see” approach after February’s pause, balancing stimulus from prior 325-basis-point cuts against inflation’s path back to the 2% target, with readiness for gradual normalization only if the recovery strengthens or inflation exceeds forecasts.
• Headline CPI, last at 3.1%, is on track to re-enter the 1-3% band in Q2 2026 and hit 2% by mid-2027, aided by spare capacity, moderating wages, and softer food/fuel prices; two-year business inflation expectations have ticked up slightly to 2.37%.
• Household spending and housing remain subdued amid cautious consumption, low net migration, and labor market softness, though easing retail rates support budgets; high-frequency GDP indicators show steadying momentum in an early recovery phase.
• Accommodative borrowing costs from the low OCR are boosting mortgage approvals and sentiment, but business credit growth lags due to uneven confidence; overall stimulus persists below the 3% neutral rate.
• Risks are balanced, with a favorable global environment—including stronger dairy/meat exports and a softer NZ dollar—offsetting oil shocks and prior China/US trade worries; vigilance remains on second-round inflation effects.
• Forecasts point to potential OCR hikes starting late 2026 (e.g., December) or early 2027 to 2.50% by year-end if activity/inflation firms, but policy stays supportive if recovery unfolds gradually as expected.
• The next meeting is on 27 May 2026.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bearish

The Japanese Yen (JPY)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from JPY today?

Suspected and reported intervention by Japanese authorities to stop the currency from weakening too far, and growing expectations that the Bank of Japan may raise interest rates again in the coming months. That mix has produced sharp short-term rebounds in the yen, but the broader mood remains cautious because traders still see the currency as vulnerable whenever dollar strength returns.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Policy Board of the Bank of Japan left the short‑term policy rate unchanged at 0.75% at the 27–28 April 2026 meeting, with markets broadly expecting the same level into May 2026 as the bank continues a data‑dependent, gradual‑normalisation stance.
• The BOJ targets the uncollateralized overnight call rate around 0.75%, signaling that any further hikes toward 1.0% will hinge on wage‑inflation persistence, yen stability, and real‑activity data rather than a pre‑announced timetable.
• JGB tapering continues on plan, with outright purchases trimmed by ¥400 billion quarterly through Q1 2026, then reduced to ¥200 billion from April onward, aiming for roughly ¥2–3 trillion in monthly net purchases by mid‑2026, adjustable if market or yen volatility spikes.
• Japan’s economy posts moderate growth into Q1 2026, supported by resilient exports and prior stimulus, but the BOJ has downgraded its 2026 growth outlook as external headwinds and Middle‑East‑related shocks weigh on the pace.
• Core CPI (ex‑fresh food) is running in the mid‑1% range y/y, with headline inflation at about 1.5% y/y in March 2026, while core‑core measures remain above 2%, reflecting sticky services‑side and wage‑driven inflation.
• Input‑cost pressures ease from prior peaks, yet services inflation, the 2026 shunto wage deals near 5%, and expectations anchored above 2% support continued price pressures, with upside risks from further yen weakness and geopolitical spikes.
• Near‑term real GDP may run below trend due to policy tightening and external shocks (e.g., Iran‑related energy risks), but negative real rates, wage gains, and targeted fiscal/capex support should underpin a gradual rebound in consumption and investment.
• Medium‑term, overseas recovery, labor‑shortage‑driven wage growth, and productivity improvements are expected to keep core inflation near or above 2%, enabling the BOJ to gradually lift rates toward 1.0% in 2026–2027 if activity and wage‑inflation conditions remain aligned.
• The next meeting is on 15 to 16 June 2026.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bearish

Oil

Key news events today

API Crude Oil Stock (8:30 pm GMT)

What can we expect from Oil today?

Retail fuel prices are moving higher in some countries, and the underlying crude market is being supported by low inventories and supply-risk concerns, especially around the Middle East and the Strait of Hormuz. At the same time, analysts are watching whether elevated prices can hold if production and export conditions improve later in 2026.

Next 24 Hours Bias
Medium Bullish

The post IC Markets Global – Asia Fundamental Forecast | 26 May 2026 first appeared on IC Your Trading Edge | Official Blog.

The post Ex-Dividend 26/05/2026 first appeared on IC Your Trading Edge | Official Blog.

Global Markets:

•  Asian Stock Markets : Nikkei up 3.10%, Shanghai Composite up 0.57% Hang Seng up 0.86% ASX up 0.45%
• Commodities : Gold at $4,595.45 (0.13%) Silver at $78.065 (2.45%), Brent Oil at $97.78 (-2.43%), WTI Oil at $91.00 (-5.77%)
• Rates : US 10-year yield at 4.488, UK 10-year yield at 4.9060, Germany 10-year yield at 3.0338

News & Data:

• (CAD) Core Retail Sales m/m  209K  to 210K   expected

Markets Update:

Asia-Pacific markets rallied Monday as easing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East boosted investor confidence and pushed oil prices sharply lower. Japan’s Nikkei 225 surged past the 65,000 mark for the first time ever, setting a fresh record during thin holiday trading across the region.

Investor sentiment improved after reports suggested the Strait of Hormuz could soon reopen, easing fears over global oil supply disruptions. U.S. President Donald Trump also struck an optimistic tone on Iran negotiations, saying in a Truth Social post that discussions were progressing “in an orderly and constructive manner.” He added that he had advised negotiators “not to rush into a deal,” saying time remained on their side.

Oil prices fell significantly in early Asian trade. West Texas Intermediate crude futures for July delivery dropped 5.87% to $90.93 per barrel, while Brent crude futures declined 5.58% to $97.76.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 jumped more than 3% to a record 65,408.87, while the broader Topix index gained 1.19%. Taiwan’s Taiex also reached an all-time high, rising 2.91% to 43,495.92. Elsewhere, Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 added 0.45%, China’s CSI 300 rose 0.91%, and India’s Nifty 50 advanced 1.09%. Hong Kong, South Korea, and U.S. markets remained closed for public holidays.

Upcoming Events:

• 11:01 PM GMT – GBP BRC Shop Price Index y/y

The post Monday 25th May 2026: Asia Markets Rally as Nikkei Tops 65,000 on Falling Oil Prices and Iran Deal Optimism first appeared on IC Your Trading Edge | Official Blog.

IC Markets Global – Europe Fundamental Forecast | 25 May 2026

What happened in the Asia session?

Asia’s session was dominated by a risk-on rotation that lifted Japanese equities, especially SoftBank and the Nikkei, while South Korean tech names were mixed and FX traders focused on a softer dollar, a strong yen-watch around USD/JPY, and a weaker won; commodities reflected the same tone, with gold under pressure and oil staying supported, while China’s industrial-production release was the main macro event still looming over the session.

What does it mean for the Europe & US sessions?

Traders should expect a quieter U.S. session because of Memorial Day, but Europe is open and will likely trade on positioning, headlines, and pre-week anticipation for Thursday’s U.S. Core PCE and GDP releases, which are the biggest macro catalysts on the calendar this week. Today also has a range of smaller but market-relevant data points, especially in Canada, Europe, and emerging markets, so cross-asset volatility may still appear in currencies, bonds, and index futures even without active U.S. cash equity trading.
​
The Dollar Index (DXY)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from DXY today?

The dollar is slightly weaker today, with the broad dollar index around 99.03 and down about 0.21% from the prior session, while market sentiment is being driven by optimism around a possible U.S.-Iran deal and easing oil prices. That risk-on tone has pressured the greenback versus major peers, and traders are also watching how recent U.S. inflation and Federal Reserve expectations continue to shape demand for the currency.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is widely expected to hold the federal funds rate target range steady at 3.50%–3.75% at its April 28–29, 2026, meeting, as oil prices remain elevated around $108 per barrel for Brent crude amid ongoing US-Israel tensions with Iran, alongside surging inflation from energy shocks, further delaying any 2026 rate cuts potentially beyond September.
• The Committee continues to pursue maximum employment and 2% inflation goals, with the labor market showing mixed signals as nonfarm payrolls rose by 178,000 in March 2026—beating lowered expectations but driven partly by strike reversals—and the unemployment rate edged down to 4.3% from 4.4% in February.
• Officials face heightened risks from geopolitical tensions, soaring oil prices, and accelerating inflation, with CPI jumping to 3.3% year-over-year in March 2026 from 2.4% in February due to a 10.9% monthly energy surge, headline PCE pressured higher, and core PCE estimates around 3.1% or more.
• Economic activity continues to cool after robust Q4 2025 growth near 5%, with the Atlanta Fed GDPNow estimating Q1 2026 growth at 1.3% amid softer consumer spending, strike impacts, and labor data despite some resilience.
• March 2026’s Summary of Economic Projections forecasts 2026 unemployment at a median around 4.4%, GDP growth revised higher, and core PCE up to 2.7%, with the dot plot still signaling one cut in 2026 to a median 3.25%–3.50% funds rate amid softer labor but inflation upticks.
• The Committee maintains its data-dependent stance amid a mixed labor market, inflation well above target from oil shocks, and geopolitical risks, likely holding rates at 3.50%-3.75% with persistent divisions and hawkish tones on cuts.
• The FOMC continues its adjusted quantitative tightening, with Treasury rolloff caps at $5 billion per month and agency MBS at $35 billion per month to manage reserves amid post-2025 balance sheet adjustments.
• The FOMC continues its adjusted quantitative tightening, with Treasury rolloff caps at $5 billion per month and agency MBS at $35 billion per month to ensure ample reserves post-2025 program adjustments.
• The next meeting is scheduled for 16 to 17  June 2026.

Next 24 Hours Bias
Medium Bullish

Gold (XAU)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from Gold today?

Gold is trading higher today as investors react to US–Iran tensions and monitor Fed interest-rate outlook, inflation data, and Middle East geopolitics, pushing spot gold up about 1% to roughly $4,561–$4,565/oz after a Friday close near $4,509. The metal remains elevated despite a modest monthly decline of about 2.6%, still up more than 36% over the past year, while local markets show mixed moves.

Next 24 Hours Bias   
Weak Bearish

The Euro (EUR)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from EUR today?

The euro strengthened today, climbing to 1.1637 per dollar as the EU expanded its trade influence by finalizing a significantly upgraded agreement with Mexico that removes nearly all agricultural tariffs and diversifies economic partnerships away from US and China dependence. Simultaneously, momentum is building behind the digital euro project as a strategic response to payment sovereignty challenges exposed by recent US sanctions on ICC judges, even as European banks continue to voice concerns about potential deposit flight to the central bank.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Governing Council of the ECB is expected to keep the three key interest rates unchanged at its 28–29 May 2026 meeting, with the main refinancing rate near 2.15%, the marginal lending facility at 2.40%, and the deposit facility at 2.00%.
• Headline HICP inflation is likely to remain in the 2.0–2.3% range in the early months of 2026, with the March 2026 ECB staff baseline projecting an average of 2.6% for 2026, 2.0% for 2027, and 2.1% for 2028.
• The updated Eurosystem staff projections for 2026 paint a picture of persistent inflation overshoot, with headline inflation averages of around 2.6% in 2026, 2.0% in 2027, and 2.1% in 2028, compared with about 1.9–2.1% earlier outlooks.
• Real GDP growth is projected at about 0.9% in 2026, 1.3% in 2027, and 1.4% in 2028, implying around 0.2–0.3% quarter‑on‑quarter expansion in Q2 2026, consistent with the resilience observed at the end of 2025.
• The euro area unemployment rate is expected to stay near 6.4%, with strong labour‑force participation and modest wage pressures underpinning consumption resilience.
• The Governing Council continues to stress a meeting‑by‑meeting, data‑dependent approach, focusing on the path of inflation, the functioning of monetary‑policy transmission, and the impact of external shocks (geopolitical, energy, and trade‑policy related).
• Balance‑sheet normalization proceeds smoothly, with the APP and PEPP wind‑downs completed and the remaining stock of longer‑dated assets being allowed to run off without significant liquidity shortages.

​The next meeting is on 10 to 11 June 2026

Next 24 Hours Bias
Weak Bearish

The Swiss Franc (CHF)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from CHF today?

The Swiss franc is still being supported by safe-haven demand today, with recent market coverage pointing to continued strength against both the dollar and the euro amid global uncertainty, while the SNB remains reluctant to intervene aggressively. Recent exchange-rate snapshots also show the franc near elevated levels, around 1 CHF = 1.279 USD and about 0.910 EUR.

Central Bank Notes:

• At its monetary policy assessment on 19 March 2026, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) is widely expected to leave the policy rate unchanged at 0%, continuing the extended pause since September 2025, as the Governing Board considers current settings adequate to keep inflation near the target without resorting to negative rates.
• Inflation data since December indicate persistent weakness, with headline CPI hovering around 0% year-on-year through early 2026 and core measures subdued at roughly 0.4%, underscoring limited price pressures and lingering, though contained, deflation risks.
• The SNB’s updated conditional inflation forecast shows minimal change from December, with averages of about 0.2% in 2025 (now complete), 0.3% in 2026, and 0.6% in 2027 under a steady 0% policy rate. However, recent flat CPI readings may slightly lower near-term expectations, preserving scope for further easing if needed.
• Global conditions remain challenging, marked by U.S. tariff escalations under President Trump, subdued external demand, and uncertainties in major export markets such as Europe and the U.S., prompting the SNB to exercise caution despite resilient Swiss domestic activity.
• Sentiment in manufacturing and export sectors stays soft amid franc appreciation and weaker foreign orders, squeezing margins. Yet, overall GDP growth is expected to be around 1.5% in 2026, with unemployment edging up modestly from historic lows.
• The SNB reaffirms its readiness to intervene via rate cuts or FX operations should deflationary pressures intensify, while emphasizing clear communication through detailed meeting minutes and coordination with global partners on currency matters.

The next meeting is on 18 June 2026.

Next 24 Hours Bias
Medium Bullish

The Pound (GBP)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from GBP today?

The pound is trading with a mildly firmer tone today, with GBP/USD around the 1.35 area in market snapshots and GBP/GHS quoted near 15.62 on the Bank of Ghana’s latest daily interbank fix for 22 May 2026. A broader market note also suggests sterling remains supported by expectations that UK rates may stay relatively elevated.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) met on 29 April 2026, maintaining the Bank Rate at 3.75 per cent, with the decision details published on 30 April 2026 alongside the quarterly Monetary Policy Report. This hold follows the unanimous 9-0 vote at the prior 18 March 2026 meeting, amid persistent energy shocks from the Middle East conflict overriding earlier cut expectations. No specific vote split for April has been detailed yet, but consensus previews indicate a hold.
• Quantitative tightening (QT) continues unchanged at the 2025 pace for gilt holdings reductions, supporting balance-sheet normalization while monitoring liquidity and maintaining restrictiveness against ongoing shocks.
• Headline CPI inflation rose to 3.3% in March 2026 from energy and motor fuel surges due to Middle East tensions, expected to stay between 3% and 3.5% through the summer, well above the 2% target. The April Monetary Policy Report outlines scenarios in which inflation peaks above 3.5% by the end of 2026 in the baseline, then eases below 2% in three years, or reaches 6%+ in adverse cases requiring tighter policy.
• UK growth outlook weakens further into Q2-Q3 2026 amid energy-driven cost pressures, rising unemployment risks, and softening confidence, with prior pay growth cooling now vulnerable to business pass-throughs.
• Global risks from the Middle East conflict persist, fueling energy/commodity volatility and sterling/gilt fluctuations; MPC views direct impacts as containable if demand slackens to curb secondary inflation effects.
• Inflation risks remain upward-biased due to energy persistence, potential wage embedding, and shock duration uncertainty, balanced against downside from economic slack and labor market softening.
• The MPC maintains a data-dependent stance, with policy still restrictive; the April Report provides fuller shock analysis, but no easing is signaled, yet members monitor for 2% sustainability, with Governor Bailey emphasizing vigilance.
• The next meeting is on 18 June 2026.

  Next 24 Hours Bias
  Weak Bullish

The Canadian Dollar (CAD)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from CAD today?

The Canadian dollar stayed under pressure, trading near a 5‑month low versus the US dollar with USD/CAD around 1.378–1.381 as hawkish‑leaning Fed expectations and resilient US yields kept the greenback strong. Oil prices remained elevated but have not been enough to lift the loonie, as safe‑haven demand and Canada’s relatively weaker carry profile versus the US continue to weigh on the currency.
​
Central Bank Notes:

• The Governing Council held the overnight rate target steady at 2.25% at its 28-29 April 2026 meeting, matching consensus expectations and prolonging the policy pause as inflation trends firmer toward target. The Bank highlighted lingering global headwinds from Middle East tensions and U.S. tariff escalations under Trump, but confirmed the stance continues fostering disinflation amid moderating energy volatility.
• U.S. trade frictions and geopolitical strains persist in dampening sentiment, yet Canadian manufacturing PMI strengthened further in expansion, driven by robust export orders tied to sustained energy demand. Goods exports, anchored by crude oil, maintained strength through March, countering subdued capex as businesses emphasize operational buffers over expansion.
• Economic growth extended into Q2 2026 at roughly 2.1% annualized, sustaining Q1’s momentum via resource shipments, public spending, and industrial recovery. March preliminary figures suggest resilient expansion, tempered slightly by seasonal factors and lingering supply disruptions.
• Services PMI rose deeper into expansion territory, with gains across tech, leisure, and professional services; consumer segments showed firmer footing from wage gains, despite elevated prices curbing non-essentials. The Bank views this breadth as signaling a balanced, sustainable upturn.
• ​National housing resales climbed modestly in March alongside stable prices, supported by steady rates and regional affordability pockets, as inventory accumulation in key markets avoids sharp imbalances. Policymakers expect gradual softening, underpinned by sound lending standards and consistent household dynamics.
• Headline CPI held near 2.0% year-over-year in March 2026 prints, within the target band, with core metrics like CPI-trim and median easing to around 2.5% on easing food, goods, and partial shelter relief. This bolsters confidence in inflation’s durable path to 2%.
• Officials affirmed 2.25% appropriately positions the economy for 2% inflation stability and orderly rebalancing, with cuts off the table absent growth or price setbacks. Focus shifts to Q2 momentum, core trends, and trade/geopolitical developments ahead of June.
• The next meeting is on 10 June 2026.

Next 24 Hours Bias
Weak Bearish

Oil

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from Oil today?

Oil is starting Monday under pressure because the market sees a possible U.S.-Iran breakthrough as a step toward restoring normal flows through the Strait of Hormuz, which would ease a major supply risk. Even so, prices are not collapsing because the agreement is still preliminary and traders are waiting to see whether it is actually finalized and how quickly shipping resumes.

Next 24 Hours Bias
Medium Bullish

The post IC Markets Global – Europe Fundamental Forecast | 25 May 2026 first appeared on IC Your Trading Edge | Official Blog.

IC Markets Global – Asia Fundamental Forecast | 25 May 2026

What happened in the U.S. session?

Markets were shaped by stickier‑than‑hoped core inflation and Fed rhetoric that ruled out imminent rate cuts, while a fragile Iran‑ceasefire backdrop kept risk‑on flows in equities but also supported a modest risk‑premium in oil and Treasuries. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq pushed higher on tech‑led strength, whereas U.S. bond yields edged up and the dollar held firm, and energy‑complex moves were contained within a range dominated more by macro and policy cues than by fresh geopolitical escalation.

What does it mean for the Asia Session?

Traders heading into Monday should focus on holiday-thinned liquidity, Hong Kong’s market closure, and the week’s main macro theme: easing US–Iran tensions versus still-sticky inflation pressure. The biggest nearby drivers are the US core PCE release on Thursday and China’s PMI on Sunday, while Japan’s BoJ-related headlines and Friday industrial production also matter for regional FX and equities.

​
The Dollar Index (DXY)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from DXY today?

The dollar strengthened to near six-week highs on Monday, as investors remain cautious about the stalled US-Iran peace negotiations, which keep oil prices elevated and inflation risks high. April’s inflation jump to 3.8% has reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve may hike rates by 25 basis points in December, with traders now pricing in roughly a 54% probability of such a move.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is widely expected to hold the federal funds rate target range steady at 3.50%–3.75% at its April 28–29, 2026, meeting, as oil prices remain elevated around $108 per barrel for Brent crude amid ongoing US-Israel tensions with Iran, alongside surging inflation from energy shocks, further delaying any 2026 rate cuts potentially beyond September.
• The Committee continues to pursue maximum employment and 2% inflation goals, with the labor market showing mixed signals as nonfarm payrolls rose by 178,000 in March 2026—beating lowered expectations but driven partly by strike reversals—and the unemployment rate edged down to 4.3% from 4.4% in February.
• Officials face heightened risks from geopolitical tensions, soaring oil prices, and accelerating inflation, with CPI jumping to 3.3% year-over-year in March 2026 from 2.4% in February due to a 10.9% monthly energy surge, headline PCE pressured higher, and core PCE estimates around 3.1% or more.
• Economic activity continues to cool after robust Q4 2025 growth near 5%, with the Atlanta Fed GDPNow estimating Q1 2026 growth at 1.3% amid softer consumer spending, strike impacts, and labor data despite some resilience.
• March 2026’s Summary of Economic Projections forecasts 2026 unemployment at a median around 4.4%, GDP growth revised higher, and core PCE up to 2.7%, with the dot plot still signaling one cut in 2026 to a median 3.25%–3.50% funds rate amid softer labor but inflation upticks.
• The Committee maintains its data-dependent stance amid a mixed labor market, inflation well above target from oil shocks, and geopolitical risks, likely holding rates at 3.50%-3.75% with persistent divisions and hawkish tones on cuts.
• The FOMC continues its adjusted quantitative tightening, with Treasury rolloff caps at $5 billion per month and agency MBS at $35 billion per month to manage reserves amid post-2025 balance sheet adjustments.
• The next meeting is scheduled for 16 to 17 June 2026.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bullish

Gold (XAU)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from Gold today?

The gold market looks range-bound but elevated, with traders focused on whether support around the mid-4,000s can hold after a recent correction. The bigger picture is still constructive because central banks, especially in China, continue adding to reserves, but near-term sentiment is being capped by a stronger dollar and higher yields, so gold may stay volatile until a clearer macro catalyst emerges.

Next 24 Hours Bias
Weak Bearish

The Australian Dollar (AUD)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from AUD today?

The Australian Dollar remains supported in May 2026 by the Reserve Bank of Australia’s hawkish monetary policy stance, with the cash rate at 4.35% following a quarter-point hike earlier this year and markets pricing in further tightening as inflation stays elevated at 4.6%. The AUD has strengthened to around 0.7125 against the US dollar, trading near recent highs despite some volatility from Middle East tensions and risk-off sentiment that previously boosted the safe-haven USD. 

Central Bank Notes:

• The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) raised its cash rate by 25 basis points to 4.35% at the 5 May 2026 meeting, moving into a more restrictive stance as inflation pressures re‑accelerated and the board judged the previous 4.10% level insufficient to re‑anchor the medium‑term outlook.
• The RBA lifted the cash rate from 4.10% to 4.35% at the 5 May meeting in an 8–1 vote, flagging that the stance is now “more restrictive” and that the Council sees a low but non‑trivial chance of further hikes if inflation risks crystallise.
• Headline CPI has jumped to 4.6% year‑on‑year for the 12 months to March 2026, up from around 3.7% in February, with trimmed‑mean inflation still above 3.0% (about 3.3–3.8% depending on the series), keeping inflation clearly outside the 2–3% target band.
• Recent monthly indicators remain sticky in services, housing‑related costs, and discretionary spending, with January and March data showing only modest easing and some upside surprises in housing‑price‑related components, underpinning the case for a stronger‑than‑expected May hike.
• Global growth has been modestly revised up but remains tempered by ongoing geopolitical tensions, commodity‑price volatility, and elevated oil prices linked to the Middle East conflict, which directly feed into Australian import‑price and transport‑cost inflation.
• Markets now price the cash rate at 4.35% in June, with futures pathways suggesting a high‑probability hold at the June meeting and only a modest chance of another 25bp hike later in 2026, contingent on further upside in CPI or services‑price data.
• The RBA continues to emphasise its “data‑dependent” approach under the dual mandate, seeking to bring inflation back toward target without materially undershooting growth or employment, while acknowledging that the Middle East‑driven shock has shifted the path of inflation and policy.
• The May communication leaned hawkishly neutral to hawkish, with the decision to hike by 25bp and a run‑of‑material referencing rising inflation expectations and the risk of second‑round effects, while still leaving room for a pause in June if upcoming monthly CPI and labour‑force data show a moderating trend.
• The next meeting is on 15 to 16 June 2026.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bullish

The Kiwi Dollar (NZD)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from NZD today?

The New Zealand dollar is trading sideways‑to‑slightly weaker versus the US dollar around the low‑0.5800s, caught between a resilient greenback and global risk‑off flows, while domestic growth remains moderate and inflation‑related rate‑hike expectations keep the kiwi on a watch‑list rather than front‑and‑centre for strong directional moves; traders are focusing on RBNZ‑related cues and incoming CPI data for any shift in the perceived policy‑tightening path later in 2026.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is widely expected to hold the Official Cash Rate (OCR) steady at 2.25% at its 8 April 2026 Monetary Policy Review, aligning with unanimous market consensus from Reuters polls and previews.
• The MPC continues its data-dependent “wait-and-see” approach after February’s pause, balancing stimulus from prior 325-basis-point cuts against inflation’s path back to the 2% target, with readiness for gradual normalization only if the recovery strengthens or inflation exceeds forecasts.
• Headline CPI, last at 3.1%, is on track to re-enter the 1-3% band in Q2 2026 and hit 2% by mid-2027, aided by spare capacity, moderating wages, and softer food/fuel prices; two-year business inflation expectations have ticked up slightly to 2.37%.
• Household spending and housing remain subdued amid cautious consumption, low net migration, and labor market softness, though easing retail rates support budgets; high-frequency GDP indicators show steadying momentum in an early recovery phase.
• Accommodative borrowing costs from the low OCR are boosting mortgage approvals and sentiment, but business credit growth lags due to uneven confidence; overall stimulus persists below the 3% neutral rate.
• Risks are balanced, with a favorable global environment—including stronger dairy/meat exports and a softer NZ dollar—offsetting oil shocks and prior China/US trade worries; vigilance remains on second-round inflation effects.
• Forecasts point to potential OCR hikes starting late 2026 (e.g., December) or early 2027 to 2.50% by year-end if activity/inflation firms, but policy stays supportive if recovery unfolds gradually as expected.
• The next meeting is on 27 May 2026.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bearish

The Japanese Yen (JPY)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from JPY today?

The Japanese yen is trading near 158–159 against the dollar, still underpinned by last week’s suspected intervention but gradually giving back some of its earlier gains as the macro environment stays weak. Markets remain on alert for further Japanese intervention if USD/JPY retests the 160 level, yet low domestic interest rates and high oil‑import costs continue to weigh on the currency’s longer‑term outlook, confining any recovery to short‑term, event‑driven moves.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Policy Board of the Bank of Japan left the short‑term policy rate unchanged at 0.75% at the 27–28 April 2026 meeting, with markets broadly expecting the same level into May 2026 as the bank continues a data‑dependent, gradual‑normalisation stance.
• The BOJ targets the uncollateralized overnight call rate around 0.75%, signaling that any further hikes toward 1.0% will hinge on wage‑inflation persistence, yen stability, and real‑activity data rather than a pre‑announced timetable.
• JGB tapering continues on plan, with outright purchases trimmed by ¥400 billion quarterly through Q1 2026, then reduced to ¥200 billion from April onward, aiming for roughly ¥2–3 trillion in monthly net purchases by mid‑2026, adjustable if market or yen volatility spikes.
• Japan’s economy posts moderate growth into Q1 2026, supported by resilient exports and prior stimulus, but the BOJ has downgraded its 2026 growth outlook as external headwinds and Middle‑East‑related shocks weigh on the pace.
• Core CPI (ex‑fresh food) is running in the mid‑1% range y/y, with headline inflation at about 1.5% y/y in March 2026, while core‑core measures remain above 2%, reflecting sticky services‑side and wage‑driven inflation.
• Input‑cost pressures ease from prior peaks, yet services inflation, the 2026 shunto wage deals near 5%, and expectations anchored above 2% support continued price pressures, with upside risks from further yen weakness and geopolitical spikes.
• Near‑term real GDP may run below trend due to policy tightening and external shocks (e.g., Iran‑related energy risks), but negative real rates, wage gains, and targeted fiscal/capex support should underpin a gradual rebound in consumption and investment.
• Medium‑term, overseas recovery, labor‑shortage‑driven wage growth, and productivity improvements are expected to keep core inflation near or above 2%, enabling the BOJ to gradually lift rates toward 1.0% in 2026–2027 if activity and wage‑inflation conditions remain aligned.
• The next meeting is on 15 to 16 June 2026.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bearish

Oil

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from Oil today?

Oil is starting the week on a tense footing, with geopolitics still the main price driver. The biggest bullish factor is the risk of disruption in the Middle East, but that is being offset by bearish pressure from inventory builds and expectations that global oil supply may outpace demand later in the year.

Next 24 Hours Bias
Medium Bullish

The post IC Markets Global – Asia Fundamental Forecast | 25 May 2026 first appeared on IC Your Trading Edge | Official Blog.

DXY (U.S. Dollar Index):

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

The price could make a short-term pullback toward the pivot before rising again toward the 1st resistance

Pivot: 99.14

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 97.87

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support that aligns with the 50% Fiboancci retracement, indicating a potential area where the price could again stabilize.

1st resistance: 100.52
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement

EUR/USD:

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before continuing its bearish move down toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 1.1637

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 1.1480

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once again

1st resistance: 1.1808

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

EUR/JPY:

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before continuing its bearish move down toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 186.13

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns with the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 182.25
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing low support, indicating a potential area where the price could again stabilize.

1st resistance: 187.92
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

EUR/GBP:

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before continuing its bearish move down toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 0.8668

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 0.8612
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing low support, indicating a potential area where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 0.8731
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

GBP/USD:

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before continuing its bearish move down toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 1.3461

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 1.3192
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential area where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 1.3635
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance, indicating a potential level that could halt further upward movement.

GBP/JPY:

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before continuing its bearish move down toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 213.96

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 210.43
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing low support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 216.62
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance, indicating a potential level that could halt further upward movement.

USD/CHF:

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

The price could make a short-term pullback toward the pivot before rising again toward the 1st resistance

Pivot: 0.7835

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 0.7764
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 0.7936
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

USD/JPY:

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could make a short-term pullback toward the pivot before rising again toward the 1st resistance

Pivot: 157.89

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 155.05

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing low support, indicating a strong area where buyers might return, and the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 160.46

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance. This level represents the next key area where upward movement could be capped amid increased selling pressure

USD/CAD:

Potential Direction: Bearish                                                                                                                                                                  

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before continuing its bearish move down toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 1.3861

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns with the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 1.3715

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a key level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 1.3984

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, making it a possible target for bullish advances and a level where some sellers could return to cap gains

AUD/USD:

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before continuing its bearish move down toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 0.7187

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 0.7104

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, this area has provided strong support historically and may attract buying interest for a potential short-term bounce

1st resistance: 0.7278

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

NZD/USD

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before continuing its bearish move down toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 0.5871

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 0.5774

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, this area has provided strong support historically and may attract buying interest for a potential short-term bounce

1st resistance: 0.5965

Supporting reasons: Identified a swing high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

US30 (DJIA):

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could make a short-term pullback toward the pivot before rising again toward the 1st resistance

Pivot: 50,259.03

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 48,786.52

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, suggesting a potential area where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 52,070.46

Supporting reasons: Identified as a resistance that aligns with the 127.2% Fibonacci extension, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

DE40 (DAX):

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price has already reacted off the pivot and may continue its bearish move toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 24,805.50

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 24,037.00

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a key level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 25,451.76

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

US500 (S&P 500):

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could make a short-term pullback toward the pivot before rising again toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 7,175.99

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 7,013.90

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 7,468.10

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

BTC/USD (Bitcoin):

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before continuing its bearish move down toward the 1st support.j

Pivot: 78,616.60

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 74,631.06

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 81,867.04

Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi-swing high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

ETH/USD (Ethereum):

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before continuing its bearish move down toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 2,200.69

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 1,983.18

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing low support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 2,424.98
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

WTI/USD (Oil):

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price has already bounced off the pivot and may continue its bullish move toward the 1st resistance

Pivot: 87.53

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 73.75
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a key level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 119.24
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

XAU/USD (GOLD):

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before continuing its bearish move down toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 4,629.22

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 4,367.70
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a key level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 48,62.42
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

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The post Monday 25th May 2026: Technical Outlook and Review first appeared on IC Your Trading Edge | Official Blog.

It was another busy week for markets last week, with geopolitical updates still dominating short-term moves whilst fundamentals have started to impact longer-term outlooks, especially with regard to the impact from the conflict in the Middle East.
This week looks like starting off in a lively fashion, with conflicting updates on a peace deal coming from the US and Iran. President Trump claiming that a deal – with the ultimate aim of reopening the Strait of Hormuz – will be announced in the coming hours, whilst Fars, the major Iranian news agency, is denying this.
Looking further ahead into the week, it’s a relatively quiet calendar week, although once again there is some key data due for release, including the Fed’s favoured inflation data, the Core PCE Price Index, and some key central bank updates.

Here is our usual day-by-day breakdown of the major risk events this week:

It is a very quiet calendar day on Monday, with nothing of note across all three trading sessions; however, there are several major centres closed for holidays, which will reduce liquidity, and with updates likely on the Iran – US conflict, traders are expecting a busy day.

It is a similar story on Tuesday in terms of the calendar day, with nothing of note due in the first two trading sessions. The US CB Consumer Confidence data is due early in the New York session, but once again, expect a busy day with those major centres back in action and likely to react to any geopolitical updates from the weekend and Monday.

The antipodes will be in focus in the Asian session on Wednesday, with key Australian CPI data due out shortly before the Reserve Bank of New Zealand announces its latest interest rate decision. The London session sees the release of the ECB Financial Stability Report, and while there is no major data in the New York session, we do hear from the Fed’s Lorie Logan and Lisa Cook.

New Zealand markets will be in focus again on Thursday, with the Annual Budget Release due midway through the Asian session. The European day sees a scheduled speech from Swiss National Bank Chairman Martin Schlegel; however, the big event of the day comes shortly after the New York open when the key US Core PCE Price Index, Prelim GDP data, and Weekly Unemployment Claims figures are released.

Japanese markets will be in focus early in the Asian session on Friday, with the Tokyo Core CPI data due out. There is more inflation data due once Europe opens, with the German Prelim CPI data released on a state-by-state basis through the day, while UK markets will focus on a scheduled speech from Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey. Canadian GDP data is released shortly after the New York open, and though there is no US data of note released, we do hear from Fed members Schmid, Paulson, and Bowman across the session.

The post The Week Ahead – Week Commencing 25 May 2026 first appeared on IC Your Trading Edge | Official Blog.

US Stocks Rally into Weekend – Dow up 0.6%
US equity markets finished higher again on Friday as investors continued to price in the possibility of easing tensions in the Middle East, although conflicting rhetoric around a potential peace agreement kept overall sentiment cautious. Reports late last week suggested a deal between the US and Iran was close; however, comments over the weekend indicating there is “no rush” to finalise an agreement tempered some of the optimism heading into the new week.

Despite the uncertainty, risk appetite remained relatively well supported. The Dow Jones led the gains, rising 0.58% to close at 50,579, while the S&P 500 added 0.37% to finish at 7,473. The Nasdaq also edged higher, climbing 0.19% to close at 26,343.

Currency markets saw the US dollar continue its recent grind higher, with the Dollar Index gaining 0.06% to 99.32 as traders maintained a cautious bias amid the ongoing geopolitical uncertainty.

US Treasury markets were mixed on the session. The 2-year Treasury yield rose 3.8 basis points to 4.121% as markets continued to scale back expectations of aggressive Federal Reserve easing, while the benchmark 10-year yield slipped 1.2 basis points lower to 4.558%.

In commodity markets, oil prices remained volatile as traders continued to react to developments surrounding the Strait of Hormuz and broader Middle East tensions. Brent crude rose 0.94% to settle at $103.54 per barrel, while WTI crude gained 0.26% to $96.60 per barrel. Gold prices moved lower as the stronger US dollar weighed on the metal, with spot gold falling 0.74% to $4,509.41 an ounce.

Dollar in Focus this Week for FX Traders
The US dollar is continuing to hold near six-week highs as investors increasingly reassess the outlook for Federal Reserve interest rates amid escalating geopolitical tensions and persistent inflation concerns. Markets remain focused on developments in the Middle East, with ongoing negotiations between the US and Iran offering some optimism, which could see some relief for the dollar, but many traders are now assessing how much damage has already been done to inflation and how the Fed will react. While some recent inflation data, particularly the Fed’s preferred Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) measure, has remained relatively contained, other indicators, including the CPI and PPI prints, indicated higher inflationary conditions. Fed funds futures are now implying roughly a 50% chance of a Federal Reserve rate hike by October. That shift in expectations has helped underpin the US dollar, so even though we may see some dips in dollar strength in coming days, longer-term potential Fed hikes should keep the greenback supported.

Quiet Calendar Day to Start Another Busy Week
Traders are still expecting to see lively markets throughout the trading day today despite an extremely quiet start to the trading week on the macroeconomic calendar. Bank holidays across the UK, Germany, France, Switzerland, and the United States are set to significantly reduce market liquidity, and thin trading conditions could leave markets vulnerable to exaggerated price swings should any fresh geopolitical headlines emerge across the session. Already, we have seen markets start the Asian session on the front foot as investors take encouragement from the fact that negotiations are clearly progressing between the US and Iran; however, most market participants feel there could be a few more twists and turns before an agreement is signed.

Explore all upcoming market events in the Economic Calendar.

The post General Market Analysis – 25/05/26 first appeared on IC Your Trading Edge | Official Blog.

The post Ex-Dividend 25/05/2026 first appeared on IC Your Trading Edge | Official Blog.

Global Markets:

•  Asian Stock Markets : Nikkei up 2.59%, Shanghai Composite up 0.47% Hang Seng up 1.27% ASX up 0.47%
• Commodities : Gold at $4,529.72 (-0.32%) Silver at $76.868 (-0.22%), Brent Oil at $103.90 (-0.97%), WTI Oil at $97.09 (-0.93%)
• Rates : US 10-year yield at 4.570, UK 10-year yield at 4.9680, Germany 10-year yield at 3.1012

News & Data:

• (USD) Unemployment Claims  209K  to 210K   expected

Markets Update:

Asia-Pacific markets traded higher Friday as investors monitored diplomatic efforts between the U.S. and Iran aimed at easing tensions in the Middle East. Sentiment improved despite reports that Tehran plans to keep its enriched uranium stockpile within the country, a move that could complicate negotiations with Washington. U.S. President Donald Trump has made dismantling Iran’s nuclear program a key objective of his military campaign against Tehran.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 gained 1.36%, while the Topix advanced 0.55%. Data showed Japan’s core inflation slowed more than expected in April to 1.4%, the weakest level since March 2022, reducing pressure on the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates soon. South Korea’s Kospi rose 0.59%, while the tech-heavy Kosdaq jumped more than 5%. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 added 0.55%.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index climbed 1.22%, and mainland China’s CSI 300 gained 0.70%. India’s Nifty 50 and BSE Sensex both traded over 0.4% higher.

Oil prices rebounded after the previous session’s decline, with Brent crude rising 1.46% to $104.08 a barrel and U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude adding 0.93% to $97.25. Meanwhile, Wall Street closed higher overnight, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average reaching a fresh record high.

Upcoming Events:

• 12:30 PM GMT – CAD Core Retail Sales m/m

The post Friday 22nd May 2026: Asia-Pacific Markets Rise as Investors Track U.S.-Iran Peace Efforts and Cooling Inflation Data first appeared on IC Your Trading Edge | Official Blog.

IC Markets Global – Europe Fundamental Forecast | 22 May 2026

What happened in the Asia session?

Asian stocks rose for a second day, fueled by optimism over U.S.-Iran peace talks, while the U.S. dollar held near six-week highs amid elevated Treasury yields and hawkish Federal Reserve repricing that weighed heavily on regional Asian currencies. Japan’s yen was particularly impacted after April’s core inflation dropped to 1.4% YoY (below the 1.7% forecast), signaling a slower Bank of Japan rate normalization path and keeping the yen under pressure alongside other regional FX like the Australian dollar, Indian rupee, and Indonesian rupiah.

What does it mean for the Europe & US sessions?

Traders entering the European and U.S. sessions should prioritize any high‑impact macro prints (PMIs, payrolls/claims, inflation or durable goods), central‑bank commentary, major earnings or guidance, and breaking oil/geopolitical headlines, because these items most rapidly change rate expectations, dollar direction, and risk sentiment; monitor opening-range technical levels, Treasury yields, and FX liquidity for short‑term trade signals, and treat unexpected inflation or hawkish central‑bank language as the strongest catalyst for dollar strength and equity pain while dovish surprises typically lift risk assets and depress yields.
​
The Dollar Index (DXY)

Key news events today

Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment (2:00 pm GMT)

What can we expect from DXY today?

The U.S. currency is holding near a stronger level, helped by safe-haven flows, elevated yields, and the view that U.S. economic resilience gives the Fed room to stay restrictive if needed. At the same time, the bigger 2026 debate is still unresolved, because some forecasts see the dollar eventually weakening if U.S. rate expectations ease and global growth improves.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is widely expected to hold the federal funds rate target range steady at 3.50%–3.75% at its April 28–29, 2026, meeting, as oil prices remain elevated around $108 per barrel for Brent crude amid ongoing US-Israel tensions with Iran, alongside surging inflation from energy shocks, further delaying any 2026 rate cuts potentially beyond September.
• The Committee continues to pursue maximum employment and 2% inflation goals, with the labor market showing mixed signals as nonfarm payrolls rose by 178,000 in March 2026—beating lowered expectations but driven partly by strike reversals—and the unemployment rate edged down to 4.3% from 4.4% in February.
• Officials face heightened risks from geopolitical tensions, soaring oil prices, and accelerating inflation, with CPI jumping to 3.3% year-over-year in March 2026 from 2.4% in February due to a 10.9% monthly energy surge, headline PCE pressured higher, and core PCE estimates around 3.1% or more.
• Economic activity continues to cool after robust Q4 2025 growth near 5%, with the Atlanta Fed GDPNow estimating Q1 2026 growth at 1.3% amid softer consumer spending, strike impacts, and labor data despite some resilience.
• March 2026’s Summary of Economic Projections forecasts 2026 unemployment at a median around 4.4%, GDP growth revised higher, and core PCE up to 2.7%, with the dot plot still signaling one cut in 2026 to a median 3.25%–3.50% funds rate amid softer labor but inflation upticks.
• The Committee maintains its data-dependent stance amid a mixed labor market, inflation well above target from oil shocks, and geopolitical risks, likely holding rates at 3.50%-3.75% with persistent divisions and hawkish tones on cuts.
• The FOMC continues its adjusted quantitative tightening, with Treasury rolloff caps at $5 billion per month and agency MBS at $35 billion per month to manage reserves amid post-2025 balance sheet adjustments.
• The FOMC continues its adjusted quantitative tightening, with Treasury rolloff caps at $5 billion per month and agency MBS at $35 billion per month to ensure ample reserves post-2025 program adjustments.
• The next meeting is scheduled for 16 to 17  June 2026.

Next 24 Hours Bias
Medium Bullish

Gold (XAU)

Key news events today

Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment (2:00 pm GMT)

What can we expect from Gold today?

Gold is still trading near elevated levels, but the latest headlines show it slightly softer, with price tracking around 4,531.71 USD per ounce and down 0.25% on the day. Recent coverage points to a mix of forces: easing geopolitical tensions have reduced some safe-haven demand, while lower crude oil prices, softer Treasury yields, and ongoing ETF support are helping limit the downside.

Next 24 Hours Bias   
Medium Bullish

The Euro (EUR)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from EUR today?

The euro is trading slightly lower versus the U.S. dollar around the 1.16 handle, having edged down 0.02% on Thursday as the currency consolidates after a stronger 2025 performance. The ECB’s insistence on a cautious, data‑dependent stance keeping rates on hold while acknowledging near‑target inflation and resilient growth is keeping downside constrained, even as month‑end flows and the Eurogroup meeting add a touch of risk‑off mood.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Governing Council of the ECB is expected to keep the three key interest rates unchanged at its 28–29 May 2026 meeting, with the main refinancing rate near 2.15%, the marginal lending facility at 2.40%, and the deposit facility at 2.00%.
• Headline HICP inflation is likely to remain in the 2.0–2.3% range in the early months of 2026, with the March 2026 ECB staff baseline projecting an average of 2.6% for 2026, 2.0% for 2027, and 2.1% for 2028.
• The updated Eurosystem staff projections for 2026 paint a picture of persistent inflation overshoot, with headline inflation averages of around 2.6% in 2026, 2.0% in 2027, and 2.1% in 2028, compared with about 1.9–2.1% earlier outlooks.
• Real GDP growth is projected at about 0.9% in 2026, 1.3% in 2027, and 1.4% in 2028, implying around 0.2–0.3% quarter‑on‑quarter expansion in Q2 2026, consistent with the resilience observed at the end of 2025.
• The euro area unemployment rate is expected to stay near 6.4%, with strong labour‑force participation and modest wage pressures underpinning consumption resilience.
• The Governing Council continues to stress a meeting‑by‑meeting, data‑dependent approach, focusing on the path of inflation, the functioning of monetary‑policy transmission, and the impact of external shocks (geopolitical, energy, and trade‑policy related).
• Balance‑sheet normalization proceeds smoothly, with the APP and PEPP wind‑downs completed and the remaining stock of longer‑dated assets being allowed to run off without significant liquidity shortages.

​The next meeting is on 10 to 11 June 2026

Next 24 Hours Bias
Weak Bearish

The Swiss Franc (CHF)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from CHF today?

The Swiss franc is still being driven mainly by safe-haven demand today, with the currency holding firm amid global uncertainty and investors continuing to favor CHF on risk-off flows. Recent market coverage also points to the franc staying structurally strong in 2026, while the Swiss National Bank appears to be keeping intervention limited and maintaining a cautious stance on policy.

Central Bank Notes:

• At its monetary policy assessment on 19 March 2026, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) is widely expected to leave the policy rate unchanged at 0%, continuing the extended pause since September 2025, as the Governing Board considers current settings adequate to keep inflation near the target without resorting to negative rates.
• Inflation data since December indicate persistent weakness, with headline CPI hovering around 0% year-on-year through early 2026 and core measures subdued at roughly 0.4%, underscoring limited price pressures and lingering, though contained, deflation risks.
• The SNB’s updated conditional inflation forecast shows minimal change from December, with averages of about 0.2% in 2025 (now complete), 0.3% in 2026, and 0.6% in 2027 under a steady 0% policy rate. However, recent flat CPI readings may slightly lower near-term expectations, preserving scope for further easing if needed.
• Global conditions remain challenging, marked by U.S. tariff escalations under President Trump, subdued external demand, and uncertainties in major export markets such as Europe and the U.S., prompting the SNB to exercise caution despite resilient Swiss domestic activity.
• Sentiment in manufacturing and export sectors stays soft amid franc appreciation and weaker foreign orders, squeezing margins. Yet, overall GDP growth is expected to be around 1.5% in 2026, with unemployment edging up modestly from historic lows.
• The SNB reaffirms its readiness to intervene via rate cuts or FX operations should deflationary pressures intensify, while emphasizing clear communication through detailed meeting minutes and coordination with global partners on currency matters.

The next meeting is on 18 June 2026.

Next 24 Hours Bias
Medium Bearish

The Pound (GBP)

Key news events today

Retail Sales m/m (6:00 am GMT)

What can we expect from GBP today?

The pound is trading in a narrow range, broadly stable but slightly under pressure against the dollar as traders juggle soft‑ish UK growth signals, political uncertainty in London, and a relatively resilient US‑yield backdrop. Sterling has pared back this week’s early weakness and remains near the mid‑1.34 handle, with markets waiting for clearer cues on UK fiscal policy and the Bank of England’s next move to decide whether the pound reverts toward a more persistent downtrend or finds firmer footing later in the year.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) met on 29 April 2026, maintaining the Bank Rate at 3.75 per cent, with the decision details published on 30 April 2026 alongside the quarterly Monetary Policy Report. This hold follows the unanimous 9-0 vote at the prior 18 March 2026 meeting, amid persistent energy shocks from the Middle East conflict overriding earlier cut expectations. No specific vote split for April has been detailed yet, but consensus previews indicate a hold.
• Quantitative tightening (QT) continues unchanged at the 2025 pace for gilt holdings reductions, supporting balance-sheet normalization while monitoring liquidity and maintaining restrictiveness against ongoing shocks.
• Headline CPI inflation rose to 3.3% in March 2026 from energy and motor fuel surges due to Middle East tensions, expected to stay between 3% and 3.5% through the summer, well above the 2% target. The April Monetary Policy Report outlines scenarios in which inflation peaks above 3.5% by the end of 2026 in the baseline, then eases below 2% in three years, or reaches 6%+ in adverse cases requiring tighter policy.
• UK growth outlook weakens further into Q2-Q3 2026 amid energy-driven cost pressures, rising unemployment risks, and softening confidence, with prior pay growth cooling now vulnerable to business pass-throughs.
• Global risks from the Middle East conflict persist, fueling energy/commodity volatility and sterling/gilt fluctuations; MPC views direct impacts as containable if demand slackens to curb secondary inflation effects.
• Inflation risks remain upward-biased due to energy persistence, potential wage embedding, and shock duration uncertainty, balanced against downside from economic slack and labor market softening.
• The MPC maintains a data-dependent stance, with policy still restrictive; the April Report provides fuller shock analysis, but no easing is signaled, yet members monitor for 2% sustainability, with Governor Bailey emphasizing vigilance.
• The next meeting is on 18 June 2026.

  Next 24 Hours Bias
  Medium Bullish

The Canadian Dollar (CAD)

Key news events today

Core Retail Sales m/m (12:30 pm GMT)

Retail Sales m/m (12:30 pm GMT)

What can we expect from CAD today?

The Canadian dollar is edging slightly lower around 0.726–0.728 vs. the U.S. dollar, underpinned by a stiffer U.S. dollar, widening CAD–USD yield differentials, and a dovish Bank of Canada outlook following softer‑than‑expected April CPI that tempered rate‑hike expectations. Oil prices have also pulled back after recent geopolitical tensions eased, removing a key support for the commodity‑linked loonie and keeping USD/CAD near the 1.374–1.378 range as traders brace for upcoming domestic data and central‑bank signals later in the month.
​
Central Bank Notes:

• The Governing Council held the overnight rate target steady at 2.25% at its 28-29 April 2026 meeting, matching consensus expectations and prolonging the policy pause as inflation trends firmer toward target. The Bank highlighted lingering global headwinds from Middle East tensions and U.S. tariff escalations under Trump, but confirmed the stance continues fostering disinflation amid moderating energy volatility.
• U.S. trade frictions and geopolitical strains persist in dampening sentiment, yet Canadian manufacturing PMI strengthened further in expansion, driven by robust export orders tied to sustained energy demand. Goods exports, anchored by crude oil, maintained strength through March, countering subdued capex as businesses emphasize operational buffers over expansion.
• Economic growth extended into Q2 2026 at roughly 2.1% annualized, sustaining Q1’s momentum via resource shipments, public spending, and industrial recovery. March preliminary figures suggest resilient expansion, tempered slightly by seasonal factors and lingering supply disruptions.
• Services PMI rose deeper into expansion territory, with gains across tech, leisure, and professional services; consumer segments showed firmer footing from wage gains, despite elevated prices curbing non-essentials. The Bank views this breadth as signaling a balanced, sustainable upturn.
• ​National housing resales climbed modestly in March alongside stable prices, supported by steady rates and regional affordability pockets, as inventory accumulation in key markets avoids sharp imbalances. Policymakers expect gradual softening, underpinned by sound lending standards and consistent household dynamics.
• Headline CPI held near 2.0% year-over-year in March 2026 prints, within the target band, with core metrics like CPI-trim and median easing to around 2.5% on easing food, goods, and partial shelter relief. This bolsters confidence in inflation’s durable path to 2%.
• Officials affirmed 2.25% appropriately positions the economy for 2% inflation stability and orderly rebalancing, with cuts off the table absent growth or price setbacks. Focus shifts to Q2 momentum, core trends, and trade/geopolitical developments ahead of June.
• The next meeting is on 10 June 2026.

Next 24 Hours Bias
Strong Bearish

Oil

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from Oil today?

Oil markets rallied today amid renewed geopolitical fear that US-Iran negotiations may not produce a breakthrough, with Iran’s Supreme Leader’s comments on uranium and the Strait of Hormuz toll dispute clouding breakthrough prospects. While Iran acknowledged the US proposal narrowed gaps, no agreement exists yet, and supply disruptions from the conflict continue alongside expectations of a modest OPEC+ output increase in July, keeping global energy markets volatile amid inflation and economic growth concerns.

Next 24 Hours Bias
Medium Bullish

The post IC Markets Global – Europe Fundamental Forecast | 22 May 2026 first appeared on IC Your Trading Edge | Official Blog.