DXY (U.S. Dollar Index):

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

The price has already bounced off the pivot and may continue its bullish move toward the 1st resistance

Pivot: 98.98

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 98.53

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a potential area where the price could again stabilize.

1st resistance: 99.51
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement

EUR/USD:

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price has already reacted off the pivot and may continue its bearish move toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 1.1661

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 1.1558

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns with the 161.8% FIbonacci extension, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 1.1722

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

EUR/JPY:

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price has already bounced off the pivot and may continue its bullish move toward the 1st resistance

Pivot: 184.24

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 183.29
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a potential area where the price could again stabilize.

1st resistance: 186.25
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance that aligns with the 78.6% FIbonacci retracement, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

EUR/GBP:

Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price has already bounced off the pivot and may continue its bullish move toward the 1st resistance

Pivot: 0.8642

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 0.8621
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing low support, indicating a potential area where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 0.8680
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

GBP/USD:

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price has already reacted off the pivot and may continue its bearish move toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 1.3458

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 1.3305
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing low support, indicating a potential area where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 1.3547
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, indicating a potential level that could halt further upward movement.

GBP/JPY:

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before continuing its bearish move down toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 214.19

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 211.30
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing low support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 215.12
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, indicating a potential level that could halt further upward movement.

USD/CHF:

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before rising again toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 0.7849

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 0.7825
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 0.7905
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

USD/JPY:

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before continuing its bearish move down toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 159.06

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 157.92

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a strong area where buyers might return, and the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 159.85

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance. This level represents the next key area where upward movement could be capped amid increased selling pressure

USD/CAD:

Potential Direction: Bullish                                                                                                                                                           

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before continuing its bearish move down toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 1.3761

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 1.3715

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a key level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 1.3810

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns with 161.8% Fibonacci extensive, making it a possible target for bullish advances and a level where some sellers could return to cap gains

AUD/USD:

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before continuing its bearish move down toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 0.7150

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 0.7075

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, this area has provided strong support historically and may attract buying interest for a potential short-term bounce

1st resistance: 0.7204

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

NZD/USD

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price has already bounced off the pivot and may continue its bullish move toward the 1st resistance

Pivot: 0.5827

Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi-swing low support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 0.778

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, this area has provided strong support historically and may attract buying interest for a potential short-term bounce

1st resistance: 0.5919

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

US30 (DJIA):

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before continuing its bearish move down toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 50,063.77

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 49,672.50

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, suggesting a potential area where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 50,532.09

Supporting reasons: Identified as a resistance that aligns with the 127.2% Fibonacci extension, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

DE40 (DAX):

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price has already bounced off the pivot and may continue its bullish move toward the 1st resistance

Pivot: 24,613.00

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 24,025.71

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a key level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 25,152.26

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

US500 (S&P 500):

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price has already bounced off the pivot and may continue its bullish move toward the 1st resistance

Pivot: 7,424.58

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 7,350.40

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing low support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 7,498.56

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

BTC/USD (Bitcoin):

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before continuing its bearish move down toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 78,378.75

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 76,492.34

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing low support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 79,659.54

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

ETH/USD (Ethereum):

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before continuing its bearish move down toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 2,175.62

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 2,083.10

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing low support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 2,236.80
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement,, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

WTI/USD (Oil):

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price has already bounced off the pivot and may continue its bullish move toward the 1st resistance

Pivot: 98.70

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 92.01
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high support, indicating a key level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 108.11
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

XAU/USD (GOLD):

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

Price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before rising again toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 4,522.41

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 4,459.57
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a key level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 4,637.65
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

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The post Friday 22nd May 2026: Technical Outlook and Review first appeared on IC Your Trading Edge | Official Blog.

US Stocks Tread Water as Peace Negotiations Roll On – Dow up 0.5%
US equity markets closed modestly higher overnight, although trading conditions remained choppy as investors continued to assess developments surrounding a possible peace agreement in the Middle East. While optimism around a deal continues to provide some support for risk sentiment, ongoing divisions between the parties kept markets cautious throughout the session.

The Dow Jones led the gains, rising 0.55% to close at 50,258, while the S&P 500 added 0.17% to finish at 7,445. The Nasdaq also edged higher, gaining 0.09% to close at 26,293. Despite the positive finish for equities, broader market conviction remained limited as traders continued to monitor geopolitical headlines closely.

Currency markets saw the US dollar push slightly higher, with the Dollar Index rising 0.11% to 99.20. In bond markets, Treasury yields were mixed on the session, with the US 2-year yield climbing 3 basis points to 4.085%, while the benchmark 10-year yield eased 1.6 basis points lower to 4.570%.

Oil prices drifted lower amid ongoing uncertainty surrounding developments in the Gulf region. Brent crude slipped 0.16% to settle at $104.96 per barrel, while WTI crude fell 1.94% to $96.35 per barrel. Gold prices were little changed on the day, edging down just 0.03% to close at $4,543.12 per ounce as traders remained cautious ahead of the weekend.

Oil Primed for Moves into the Weekend

Global markets are holding their breath on the last trading day of the week, with oil in particular set for some big moves if we get strong updates either way on the ongoing negotiations between Iran and the US. Oil prices have fallen hard in the last few days as signs that a deal could be concluded have increased, but the further the situation drags on, and the more headlines that emerge showing divisions still exist, the more likely we are to see investor concerns increase again and oil prices move higher.

WTI has dropped over 12% from peak to trough this week and now sits within striking distance of strong support levels on the daily chart, with trendline support now sitting near last night’s low of $95.76 a barrel. News of an agreement in the coming sessions should see it extend its move south, with a break there likely to lead to a strong move down toward the next major levels around the $80 mark. However, further delays will probably see it move back into recent ranges, whilst confirmation that hostilities will resume should see it move swiftly back towards the $110 level at least.

Middle East Peace Hopes to Dominate Trading Today

Looking ahead to today’s trading sessions, traders are expecting geopolitics to remain the key market driver into the end of the week. There is little on the calendar in the Asian session, and the market is expected to remain in range-bound conditions ahead of any fresh updates regarding the US-Iran ceasefire. In the later two sessions, however, economic data releases may still generate pockets of volatility, with UK Retail Sales (exp. -0.6% m/m) due during the European session, while attention in North America will turn to Canadian Retail Sales (exp. +0.6%) and Core Retail Sales (exp. +0.9%), which should see some volatility in the pound and loonie respectively.

The New York session also sees the release of the revised University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (exp. 48.2) and Inflation Expectations (last 4.5%) data out of the United States. However, once again, geopolitical updates are expected to dominate sentiment into the weekend, with anything fresh coming later in the day likely to lead to exacerbated moves in the thinner late-session liquidity.

Explore all upcoming market events in the Economic Calendar.

The post General Market Analysis – 22/05/26 first appeared on IC Your Trading Edge | Official Blog.

IC Markets Global – Asia Fundamental Forecast | 22 May 2026

What happened in the U.S. session?

Overnight U.S. trading saw a mix of softer labor signals from higher jobless claims and firmer regional manufacturing data, while geopolitical anxieties around the Middle East lifted oil and energy stocks; the net effect was a renewed Treasury selloff (higher yields), a firmer dollar, stronger crude prices, and a rotation within equities from long-duration tech into energy and cyclical names as investors rebalanced around growth, rates, and commodity risk.

What does it mean for the Asia Session?

Japan’s April CPI could shift expectations for the Bank of Japan and trigger a quick move in USD/JPY. Beyond that, oil remains the main cross-asset risk, since Reuters reports renewed Iran tensions have pushed crude higher and kept global markets on edge, while elevated U.S. yields continue to pressure sentiment and support the dollar. In practice, that means the morning session could be driven by a mix of Japan data, yen volatility, and any fresh headlines on oil or geopolitics.

​
The Dollar Index (DXY)

Key news events today

Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment (2:00 pm GMT)

What can we expect from DXY today?

The dollar is broadly firmer today, with recent coverage pointing to gains driven by rising U.S. Treasury yields and growing bets that the Federal Reserve may need to keep interest rates higher for longer. Reuters also noted that the dollar had been on track for its strongest weekly rise in more than two months, while the yen stayed weak and the yuan eased as the greenback strengthened across major pairs.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is widely expected to hold the federal funds rate target range steady at 3.50%–3.75% at its April 28–29, 2026, meeting, as oil prices remain elevated around $108 per barrel for Brent crude amid ongoing US-Israel tensions with Iran, alongside surging inflation from energy shocks, further delaying any 2026 rate cuts potentially beyond September.
• The Committee continues to pursue maximum employment and 2% inflation goals, with the labor market showing mixed signals as nonfarm payrolls rose by 178,000 in March 2026—beating lowered expectations but driven partly by strike reversals—and the unemployment rate edged down to 4.3% from 4.4% in February.
• Officials face heightened risks from geopolitical tensions, soaring oil prices, and accelerating inflation, with CPI jumping to 3.3% year-over-year in March 2026 from 2.4% in February due to a 10.9% monthly energy surge, headline PCE pressured higher, and core PCE estimates around 3.1% or more.
• Economic activity continues to cool after robust Q4 2025 growth near 5%, with the Atlanta Fed GDPNow estimating Q1 2026 growth at 1.3% amid softer consumer spending, strike impacts, and labor data despite some resilience.
• March 2026’s Summary of Economic Projections forecasts 2026 unemployment at a median around 4.4%, GDP growth revised higher, and core PCE up to 2.7%, with the dot plot still signaling one cut in 2026 to a median 3.25%–3.50% funds rate amid softer labor but inflation upticks.
• The Committee maintains its data-dependent stance amid a mixed labor market, inflation well above target from oil shocks, and geopolitical risks, likely holding rates at 3.50%-3.75% with persistent divisions and hawkish tones on cuts.
• The FOMC continues its adjusted quantitative tightening, with Treasury rolloff caps at $5 billion per month and agency MBS at $35 billion per month to manage reserves amid post-2025 balance sheet adjustments.
• The next meeting is scheduled for 16 to 17 June 2026.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bullish

Gold (XAU)

Key news events today

Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment (2:00 pm GMT)

What can we expect from Gold today?

Gold is trading in a narrow, slightly softer band around mid‑$4,500s per ounce on Friday, as earlier safe‑haven strength from Middle‑East tensions and softer yields meets a steadier dollar and cautious positioning ahead of the weekend. Underlying demand remains solid, with strong investment and central‑bank buying supporting the metal’s long‑term bull case, even as short‑term charts highlight vulnerability below recent support levels should risk‑on sentiment or yields pick up.

Next 24 Hours Bias
Medium Bullish

The Australian Dollar (AUD)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from AUD today?

Expect the AUD to trade with sensitivity to RBA guidance, U.S. dollar moves and commodity prices; near-term direction will likely reflect the latest U.S. data and risk sentiment (equities/EM moves), plus any fresh commentary from the Reserve Bank of Australia or Australian economic releases such as business confidence or retail spending a stronger risk tone and firmer iron‑ore/oil prices would support the AUD, while stronger U.S. data or a firmer USD would cap gains.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) raised its cash rate by 25 basis points to 4.35% at the 5 May 2026 meeting, moving into a more restrictive stance as inflation pressures re‑accelerated and the board judged the previous 4.10% level insufficient to re‑anchor the medium‑term outlook.
• The RBA lifted the cash rate from 4.10% to 4.35% at the 5 May meeting in an 8–1 vote, flagging that the stance is now “more restrictive” and that the Council sees a low but non‑trivial chance of further hikes if inflation risks crystallise.
• Headline CPI has jumped to 4.6% year‑on‑year for the 12 months to March 2026, up from around 3.7% in February, with trimmed‑mean inflation still above 3.0% (about 3.3–3.8% depending on the series), keeping inflation clearly outside the 2–3% target band.
• Recent monthly indicators remain sticky in services, housing‑related costs, and discretionary spending, with January and March data showing only modest easing and some upside surprises in housing‑price‑related components, underpinning the case for a stronger‑than‑expected May hike.
• Global growth has been modestly revised up but remains tempered by ongoing geopolitical tensions, commodity‑price volatility, and elevated oil prices linked to the Middle East conflict, which directly feed into Australian import‑price and transport‑cost inflation.
• Markets now price the cash rate at 4.35% in June, with futures pathways suggesting a high‑probability hold at the June meeting and only a modest chance of another 25bp hike later in 2026, contingent on further upside in CPI or services‑price data.
• The RBA continues to emphasise its “data‑dependent” approach under the dual mandate, seeking to bring inflation back toward target without materially undershooting growth or employment, while acknowledging that the Middle East‑driven shock has shifted the path of inflation and policy.
• The May communication leaned hawkishly neutral to hawkish, with the decision to hike by 25bp and a run‑of‑material referencing rising inflation expectations and the risk of second‑round effects, while still leaving room for a pause in June if upcoming monthly CPI and labour‑force data show a moderating trend.
• The next meeting is on 15 to 16 June 2026.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish

The Kiwi Dollar (NZD)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from NZD today?

The New Zealand dollar is trading flat‑to‑slightly weaker on Friday, with NZD/USD hovering around 0.586–0.588 after a recent retreat from near‑0.59 territory; the kiwi is being tugged between resilient risk‑on sentiment and stronger‑than‑expected Chinese data on one side, and firmer US yields, elevated oil prices, and a cautious RBNZ policy stance on the other, leaving the pair range‑bound and vulnerable to sharp shifts in global risk appetite.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is widely expected to hold the Official Cash Rate (OCR) steady at 2.25% at its 8 April 2026 Monetary Policy Review, aligning with unanimous market consensus from Reuters polls and previews.
• The MPC continues its data-dependent “wait-and-see” approach after February’s pause, balancing stimulus from prior 325-basis-point cuts against inflation’s path back to the 2% target, with readiness for gradual normalization only if the recovery strengthens or inflation exceeds forecasts.
• Headline CPI, last at 3.1%, is on track to re-enter the 1-3% band in Q2 2026 and hit 2% by mid-2027, aided by spare capacity, moderating wages, and softer food/fuel prices; two-year business inflation expectations have ticked up slightly to 2.37%.
• Household spending and housing remain subdued amid cautious consumption, low net migration, and labor market softness, though easing retail rates support budgets; high-frequency GDP indicators show steadying momentum in an early recovery phase.
• Accommodative borrowing costs from the low OCR are boosting mortgage approvals and sentiment, but business credit growth lags due to uneven confidence; overall stimulus persists below the 3% neutral rate.
• Risks are balanced, with a favorable global environment—including stronger dairy/meat exports and a softer NZ dollar—offsetting oil shocks and prior China/US trade worries; vigilance remains on second-round inflation effects.
• Forecasts point to potential OCR hikes starting late 2026 (e.g., December) or early 2027 to 2.50% by year-end if activity/inflation firms, but policy stays supportive if recovery unfolds gradually as expected.
• The next meeting is on 27 May 2026.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bearish

The Japanese Yen (JPY)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from JPY today?

The yen is starting Friday, on a firmer but still volatile footing, with market attention centered on suspected Japanese intervention and official warnings after a sharp jump in the currency in late April and early May. Traders are watching USD/JPY closely around the 155–160 zone, where recent moves have suggested authorities may step in again if weakness becomes excessive.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Policy Board of the Bank of Japan left the short‑term policy rate unchanged at 0.75% at the 27–28 April 2026 meeting, with markets broadly expecting the same level into May 2026 as the bank continues a data‑dependent, gradual‑normalisation stance.
• The BOJ targets the uncollateralized overnight call rate around 0.75%, signaling that any further hikes toward 1.0% will hinge on wage‑inflation persistence, yen stability, and real‑activity data rather than a pre‑announced timetable.
• JGB tapering continues on plan, with outright purchases trimmed by ¥400 billion quarterly through Q1 2026, then reduced to ¥200 billion from April onward, aiming for roughly ¥2–3 trillion in monthly net purchases by mid‑2026, adjustable if market or yen volatility spikes.
• Japan’s economy posts moderate growth into Q1 2026, supported by resilient exports and prior stimulus, but the BOJ has downgraded its 2026 growth outlook as external headwinds and Middle‑East‑related shocks weigh on the pace.
• Core CPI (ex‑fresh food) is running in the mid‑1% range y/y, with headline inflation at about 1.5% y/y in March 2026, while core‑core measures remain above 2%, reflecting sticky services‑side and wage‑driven inflation.
• Input‑cost pressures ease from prior peaks, yet services inflation, the 2026 shunto wage deals near 5%, and expectations anchored above 2% support continued price pressures, with upside risks from further yen weakness and geopolitical spikes.
• Near‑term real GDP may run below trend due to policy tightening and external shocks (e.g., Iran‑related energy risks), but negative real rates, wage gains, and targeted fiscal/capex support should underpin a gradual rebound in consumption and investment.
• Medium‑term, overseas recovery, labor‑shortage‑driven wage growth, and productivity improvements are expected to keep core inflation near or above 2%, enabling the BOJ to gradually lift rates toward 1.0% in 2026–2027 if activity and wage‑inflation conditions remain aligned.
• The next meeting is on 15 to 16 June 2026.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Strong Bearish

Oil

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from Oil today?

Oil prices are trading lower; a massive recent rally fueled by Middle‑Eastern supply disruptions and Strait‑of‑Hormuz tensions has unwound somewhat, with Brent around the mid‑90s and WTI near the high‑80s to low‑90‑dollar range. Easing concerns over prolonged Gulf blockages and a temporary normalization of flows are reducing the risk premium, while still‑tight US inventories and firm Asian demand are preventing a deeper sell‑off, leaving the market in a volatile, range‑bound phase with the broader 2026 outlook still tilted higher than pre‑conflict levels but gradually easing into 2027.

Next 24 Hours Bias
Medium Bullish

The post IC Markets Global – Asia Fundamental Forecast | 22 May 2026 first appeared on IC Your Trading Edge | Official Blog.

The post Ex-Dividend 22/05/2026 first appeared on IC Your Trading Edge | Official Blog.

IC Markets Global – Europe Fundamental Forecast | 21 May 2026

What happened in the Asia session?

Samsung Electronics’ union is suspending a potentially devastating 48,000-worker strike after reaching a tentative pay agreement, sending Samsung shares up over 6% and lifting South Korea’s Kospi. NVIDIA’s better-than-expected earnings are boosting Asian semiconductor suppliers despite a muted after-hours reaction.

What does it mean for the Europe & US sessions?

Expect markets to react primarily to fresh macro prints and any central-bank or official comments that shift rate expectations, while energy headlines (supply disruptions, OPEC+ or Middle East developments, and weekly U.S. inventory data) will drive oil and inflation-risk sentiment; simultaneous moves in U.S. Treasury yields will determine whether equities lean risk‑on or risk‑off, and that in turn will steer the dollar, yen and commodity currencies into the session.
​
The Dollar Index (DXY)

Key news events today

Philly Fed Manufacturing Index (12:30 pm GMT)

Unemployment Claims (12:30 pm GMT)

Flash Manufacturing PMI (1:45 pm GMT)

Flash Services PMI (1:45 pm GMT)

What can we expect from DXY today?

The dollar is starting Thursday on a slightly stronger footing, but the move is not large enough to suggest a decisive trend change. The bigger story is that traders are still balancing weak-dollar forces such as Fed rate-cut expectations and policy uncertainty against occasional safe-haven demand, so the greenback remains sensitive to any fresh macro or geopolitical headlines.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is widely expected to hold the federal funds rate target range steady at 3.50%–3.75% at its April 28–29, 2026, meeting, as oil prices remain elevated around $108 per barrel for Brent crude amid ongoing US-Israel tensions with Iran, alongside surging inflation from energy shocks, further delaying any 2026 rate cuts potentially beyond September.
• The Committee continues to pursue maximum employment and 2% inflation goals, with the labor market showing mixed signals as nonfarm payrolls rose by 178,000 in March 2026—beating lowered expectations but driven partly by strike reversals—and the unemployment rate edged down to 4.3% from 4.4% in February.
• Officials face heightened risks from geopolitical tensions, soaring oil prices, and accelerating inflation, with CPI jumping to 3.3% year-over-year in March 2026 from 2.4% in February due to a 10.9% monthly energy surge, headline PCE pressured higher, and core PCE estimates around 3.1% or more.
• Economic activity continues to cool after robust Q4 2025 growth near 5%, with the Atlanta Fed GDPNow estimating Q1 2026 growth at 1.3% amid softer consumer spending, strike impacts, and labor data despite some resilience.
• March 2026’s Summary of Economic Projections forecasts 2026 unemployment at a median around 4.4%, GDP growth revised higher, and core PCE up to 2.7%, with the dot plot still signaling one cut in 2026 to a median 3.25%–3.50% funds rate amid softer labor but inflation upticks.
• The Committee maintains its data-dependent stance amid a mixed labor market, inflation well above target from oil shocks, and geopolitical risks, likely holding rates at 3.50%-3.75% with persistent divisions and hawkish tones on cuts.
• The FOMC continues its adjusted quantitative tightening, with Treasury rolloff caps at $5 billion per month and agency MBS at $35 billion per month to manage reserves amid post-2025 balance sheet adjustments.
• The FOMC continues its adjusted quantitative tightening, with Treasury rolloff caps at $5 billion per month and agency MBS at $35 billion per month to ensure ample reserves post-2025 program adjustments.
• The next meeting is scheduled for 16 to 17  June 2026.

Next 24 Hours Bias
Medium Bullish

Gold (XAU)

Key news events today

Philly Fed Manufacturing Index (12:30 pm GMT)

Unemployment Claims (12:30 pm GMT)

Flash Manufacturing PMI (1:45 pm GMT)

Flash Services PMI (1:45 pm GMT)

What can we expect from Gold today?

Today’s gold news points to a pause after a strong run rather than a major reversal. Prices are edging lower intraday, but the market is still being underpinned by structural demand from central banks and investment flows, while traders are watching for fresh catalysts to decide whether gold can resume its broader uptrend.

Next 24 Hours Bias   
Medium Bullish

The Euro (EUR)

Key news events today

French Flash Manufacturing PMI (7:15 am GMT)

French Flash Services PMI (7:15 am GMT)

German Flash Manufacturing PMI (7:30 am GMT)

German Flash Services PMI (7:30 am GMT)

What can we expect from EUR today?

EUR/USD is trading slightly lower near 1.1620, while stalled EU–US negotiations and fresh tariff pressure on EU cars are the main reasons the currency is not gaining traction. At the same time, EU policymakers are focused on competitiveness, steel protection, investment screening, and budget funding, which support the longer-term economic narrative but do not yet give the euro a strong immediate boost.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Governing Council of the ECB is expected to keep the three key interest rates unchanged at its 28–29 May 2026 meeting, with the main refinancing rate near 2.15%, the marginal lending facility at 2.40%, and the deposit facility at 2.00%.
• Headline HICP inflation is likely to remain in the 2.0–2.3% range in the early months of 2026, with the March 2026 ECB staff baseline projecting an average of 2.6% for 2026, 2.0% for 2027, and 2.1% for 2028.
• The updated Eurosystem staff projections for 2026 paint a picture of persistent inflation overshoot, with headline inflation averages of around 2.6% in 2026, 2.0% in 2027, and 2.1% in 2028, compared with about 1.9–2.1% earlier outlooks.
• Real GDP growth is projected at about 0.9% in 2026, 1.3% in 2027, and 1.4% in 2028, implying around 0.2–0.3% quarter‑on‑quarter expansion in Q2 2026, consistent with the resilience observed at the end of 2025.
• The euro area unemployment rate is expected to stay near 6.4%, with strong labour‑force participation and modest wage pressures underpinning consumption resilience.
• The Governing Council continues to stress a meeting‑by‑meeting, data‑dependent approach, focusing on the path of inflation, the functioning of monetary‑policy transmission, and the impact of external shocks (geopolitical, energy, and trade‑policy related).
• Balance‑sheet normalization proceeds smoothly, with the APP and PEPP wind‑downs completed and the remaining stock of longer‑dated assets being allowed to run off without significant liquidity shortages.

​The next meeting is on 10 to 11 June 2026

Next 24 Hours Bias
Weak Bearish

The Swiss Franc (CHF)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from CHF today?

Today’s Swiss franc story is one of continued strength, driven by safe-haven demand, subdued inflation pressure, and expectations that the SNB will stay cautious rather than aggressively push the currency lower. The immediate market tone remains CHF-positive, with both USD/CHF and EUR/CHF vulnerable to further downside if global risk aversion stays elevated.

Central Bank Notes:

• At its monetary policy assessment on 19 March 2026, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) is widely expected to leave the policy rate unchanged at 0%, continuing the extended pause since September 2025, as the Governing Board considers current settings adequate to keep inflation near the target without resorting to negative rates.
• Inflation data since December indicate persistent weakness, with headline CPI hovering around 0% year-on-year through early 2026 and core measures subdued at roughly 0.4%, underscoring limited price pressures and lingering, though contained, deflation risks.
• The SNB’s updated conditional inflation forecast shows minimal change from December, with averages of about 0.2% in 2025 (now complete), 0.3% in 2026, and 0.6% in 2027 under a steady 0% policy rate. However, recent flat CPI readings may slightly lower near-term expectations, preserving scope for further easing if needed.
• Global conditions remain challenging, marked by U.S. tariff escalations under President Trump, subdued external demand, and uncertainties in major export markets such as Europe and the U.S., prompting the SNB to exercise caution despite resilient Swiss domestic activity.
• Sentiment in manufacturing and export sectors stays soft amid franc appreciation and weaker foreign orders, squeezing margins. Yet, overall GDP growth is expected to be around 1.5% in 2026, with unemployment edging up modestly from historic lows.
• The SNB reaffirms its readiness to intervene via rate cuts or FX operations should deflationary pressures intensify, while emphasizing clear communication through detailed meeting minutes and coordination with global partners on currency matters.

The next meeting is on 18 June 2026.

Next 24 Hours Bias
Medium Bearish

The Pound (GBP)

Key news events today

Flash Manufacturing PMI (8:30 am GMT)

Flash Services PMI (8:30 am GMT)

BOE Gov Bailey Speaks (3:00 pm GMT)

What can we expect from GBP today?

The pound (GBP) is slightly firmer on Thursday, 21 May 2026, with GBP/USD around the mid-1.34s supported by calmer risk flows and some US dollar weakness, but the currency remains sensitive to UK growth and inflation signals and to rising energy-price risks from the Middle East.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) met on 29 April 2026, maintaining the Bank Rate at 3.75 per cent, with the decision details published on 30 April 2026 alongside the quarterly Monetary Policy Report. This hold follows the unanimous 9-0 vote at the prior 18 March 2026 meeting, amid persistent energy shocks from the Middle East conflict overriding earlier cut expectations. No specific vote split for April has been detailed yet, but consensus previews indicate a hold.
• Quantitative tightening (QT) continues unchanged at the 2025 pace for gilt holdings reductions, supporting balance-sheet normalization while monitoring liquidity and maintaining restrictiveness against ongoing shocks.
• Headline CPI inflation rose to 3.3% in March 2026 from energy and motor fuel surges due to Middle East tensions, expected to stay between 3% and 3.5% through the summer, well above the 2% target. The April Monetary Policy Report outlines scenarios in which inflation peaks above 3.5% by the end of 2026 in the baseline, then eases below 2% in three years, or reaches 6%+ in adverse cases requiring tighter policy.
• UK growth outlook weakens further into Q2-Q3 2026 amid energy-driven cost pressures, rising unemployment risks, and softening confidence, with prior pay growth cooling now vulnerable to business pass-throughs.
• Global risks from the Middle East conflict persist, fueling energy/commodity volatility and sterling/gilt fluctuations; MPC views direct impacts as containable if demand slackens to curb secondary inflation effects.
• Inflation risks remain upward-biased due to energy persistence, potential wage embedding, and shock duration uncertainty, balanced against downside from economic slack and labor market softening.
• The MPC maintains a data-dependent stance, with policy still restrictive; the April Report provides fuller shock analysis, but no easing is signaled, yet members monitor for 2% sustainability, with Governor Bailey emphasizing vigilance.
• The next meeting is on 18 June 2026.

  Next 24 Hours Bias
  Medium Bullish

The Canadian Dollar (CAD)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from CAD today?

The Canadian dollar is weaker against the U.S. dollar, with USD/CAD trading near the mid-1.37s as traders lean into a stronger greenback, softer oil, and cautious Bank of Canada expectations. The latest Canadian inflation data has not provided a clear bullish catalyst for CAD, so near-term direction still looks tied to U.S. dollar momentum, oil prices, and any fresh BoC repricing.
​
Central Bank Notes:

• The Governing Council held the overnight rate target steady at 2.25% at its 28-29 April 2026 meeting, matching consensus expectations and prolonging the policy pause as inflation trends firmer toward target. The Bank highlighted lingering global headwinds from Middle East tensions and U.S. tariff escalations under Trump, but confirmed the stance continues fostering disinflation amid moderating energy volatility.
• U.S. trade frictions and geopolitical strains persist in dampening sentiment, yet Canadian manufacturing PMI strengthened further in expansion, driven by robust export orders tied to sustained energy demand. Goods exports, anchored by crude oil, maintained strength through March, countering subdued capex as businesses emphasize operational buffers over expansion.
• Economic growth extended into Q2 2026 at roughly 2.1% annualized, sustaining Q1’s momentum via resource shipments, public spending, and industrial recovery. March preliminary figures suggest resilient expansion, tempered slightly by seasonal factors and lingering supply disruptions.
• Services PMI rose deeper into expansion territory, with gains across tech, leisure, and professional services; consumer segments showed firmer footing from wage gains, despite elevated prices curbing non-essentials. The Bank views this breadth as signaling a balanced, sustainable upturn.
• ​National housing resales climbed modestly in March alongside stable prices, supported by steady rates and regional affordability pockets, as inventory accumulation in key markets avoids sharp imbalances. Policymakers expect gradual softening, underpinned by sound lending standards and consistent household dynamics.
• Headline CPI held near 2.0% year-over-year in March 2026 prints, within the target band, with core metrics like CPI-trim and median easing to around 2.5% on easing food, goods, and partial shelter relief. This bolsters confidence in inflation’s durable path to 2%.
• Officials affirmed 2.25% appropriately positions the economy for 2% inflation stability and orderly rebalancing, with cuts off the table absent growth or price setbacks. Focus shifts to Q2 momentum, core trends, and trade/geopolitical developments ahead of June.
• The next meeting is on 10 June 2026.

Next 24 Hours Bias
Strong Bearish

Oil

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from Oil today?

Oil prices edged higher today, recovering from a sharp 5%+ drop on Wednesday as President Donald Trump announced the US is in the “final stages” of negotiations with Iran, sparking hopes for a deal that could restart energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz. WTI crude rose 0.58% to $98.83/barrel, and Brent gained 0.44% to $105.50/barrel, while the Hormuz blockade nears its 3-month mark since late February.

Next 24 Hours Bias
Medium Bullish

The post IC Markets Global – Europe Fundamental Forecast | 21 May 2026 first appeared on IC Your Trading Edge | Official Blog.

DXY (U.S. Dollar Index):

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

The price has already bounced off the pivot and may continue its bullish move toward the 1st resistance

Pivot: 98.98

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 98.53

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a potential area where the price could again stabilize.

1st resistance: 99.51
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement

EUR/USD:

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price has already reacted off the pivot and may continue its bearish move toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 1.1661

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 1.1558

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns with the 161.8% FIbonacci extension, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 1.1722

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

EUR/JPY:

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price has already bounced off the pivot and may continue its bullish move toward the 1st resistance

Pivot: 184.24

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 183.29
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a potential area where the price could again stabilize.

1st resistance: 186.25
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance that aligns with the 78.6% FIbonacci retracement, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

EUR/GBP:

Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price has already bounced off the pivot and may continue its bullish move toward the 1st resistance

Pivot: 0.8642

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 0.8621
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing low support, indicating a potential area where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 0.8680
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

GBP/USD:

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price has already reacted off the pivot and may continue its bearish move toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 1.3458

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 1.3305
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing low support, indicating a potential area where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 1.3547
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, indicating a potential level that could halt further upward movement.

GBP/JPY:

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before continuing its bearish move down toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 214.19

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 211.30
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing low support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 215.12
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, indicating a potential level that could halt further upward movement.

USD/CHF:

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before rising again toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 0.7849

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 0.7825
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 0.7905
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

USD/JPY:

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before continuing its bearish move down toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 157.90

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 156.94

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a strong area where buyers might return, and the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 159.06

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance. This level represents the next key area where upward movement could be capped amid increased selling pressure

USD/CAD:

Potential Direction: Bullish                                                                                                                                                           

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before continuing its bearish move down toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 1.3711

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 1.3664

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a key level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 1.3775

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance, making it a possible target for bullish advances and a level where some sellers could return to cap gains

AUD/USD:

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before continuing its bearish move down toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 0.7150

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 0.7075

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, this area has provided strong support historically and may attract buying interest for a potential short-term bounce

1st resistance: 0.7204

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

NZD/USD

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price has already bounced off the pivot and may continue its bullish move toward the 1st resistance

Pivot: 0.5827

Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi-swing low support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 0.778

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, this area has provided strong support historically and may attract buying interest for a potential short-term bounce

1st resistance: 0.5919

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

US30 (DJIA):

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before continuing its bearish move down toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 49,672.50

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 49,074.03

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing low support, suggesting a potential area where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 50,205.12

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

DE40 (DAX):

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before continuing its bearish move down toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 24,613.00

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 24,005.00

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a key level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 25,152.26

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

US500 (S&P 500):

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price has already reacted off the pivot and may continue its bearish move toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 7,424.58

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 7,318.33

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing low support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 7,498.56

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

BTC/USD (Bitcoin):

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

The price has already reacted off the pivot and may continue its bearish move toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 77,578.24

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 75,437.47

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing low support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 78,378.75

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

ETH/USD (Ethereum):

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before continuing its bearish move down toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 2,175.62

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 2,083.10

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing low support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 2,236.80
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

WTI/USD (Oil):

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before continuing its bearish move down toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 103.04

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 98.70
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a key level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 108.11
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

XAU/USD (GOLD):

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

Price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before rising again toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 4,522.41

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 4,459.57
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a key level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 4,637.65
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

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The post Thursday 21st May 2026: Technical Outlook and Review first appeared on IC Your Trading Edge | Official Blog.

Global Markets:

•  Asian Stock Markets : Nikkei up 3.68%, Shanghai Composite up 0.00% Hang Seng up 0.03% ASX up 1.53%
• Commodities : Gold at $4,536.92 (-0.20%) Silver at $75.925 (-036%), Brent Oil at $105.85 (0.35%), WTI Oil at $99.16 (0.15%)
• Rates : US 10-year yield at 4.592, UK 10-year yield at 5.9920, Germany 10-year yield at 3.0945

News & Data:

• (GBP) CPI Y/Y  2.8%  to 3.0%   expected

Markets Update:

Asia-Pacific markets rose on Thursday, following strong gains on Wall Street as easing concerns over the Middle East conflict helped cool oil prices and improve investor sentiment.

U.S. President Donald Trump said Washington was in the “final stages” of negotiations with Iran, according to a pool report, raising hopes that tensions in the region could ease soon. Oil markets had been volatile after the Trump administration blockaded Iranian ports, while Tehran effectively shut the Strait of Hormuz, a key global energy route.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 jumped 3.52% after stronger-than-expected trade data. Exports climbed 14.8% in April, the fastest pace since January, driven by rising semiconductor shipments. Imports rose 9.7% year-on-year, while the trade deficit narrowed to 301.9 billion yen.

Shares of SoftBank Group surged nearly 20% after Nvidia’s strong earnings boosted optimism around artificial intelligence growth.

South Korea’s Kospi soared 7.68%, while the Kosdaq gained 5.02%. Samsung Electronics rose over 6% after avoiding a major worker strike through wage negotiations, while SK Hynix jumped 11%.

Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 gained 1.69%, China’s CSI 300 rose 0.56%, and India’s Nifty 50 advanced 0.42%. Meanwhile, Wall Street closed sharply higher overnight, led by technology stocks and easing oil prices.

Upcoming Events:

• 12:30 PM GMT – USD Unemployment Claims

The post Thursday 21st May 2026: Asia-Pacific Markets Rally as Oil Prices Ease and AI Stocks Surge first appeared on IC Your Trading Edge | Official Blog.

Markets Rally on Middle East Peace Hopes – Nasdaq up 1.5%
Global equity markets rallied strongly overnight after President Trump advised that negotiations between the US and Iran were in their “final stages”, boosting hopes that tensions in the Middle East may continue to ease and potentially paving the way for the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. The improvement in risk sentiment saw all three major US indices finish firmly higher on the session, while US Treasury yields retreated from recent highs and the US dollar weakened against the major currencies.
The Dow Jones rose 1.31% to close at 50,009, while the S&P 500 gained 1.08% to finish at 7,432. Technology stocks again outperformed, helping lift the Nasdaq 1.54% higher to close at 26,270.
In currency markets, the US Dollar Index slipped 0.19% to 99.14 as easing geopolitical concerns and falling Treasury yields weighed on the greenback. Bond markets also rallied, with the US 2-year Treasury yield falling 6.3 basis points to 4.055%, while the benchmark 10-year yield declined 8.1 basis points to 4.586%.
Oil prices came under heavy pressure following the developments surrounding Iran, with traders unwinding some of the significant geopolitical premium built into crude markets in recent weeks. Brent crude fell 5.32% to settle at $105.33 per barrel, while WTI crude dropped 5.05% to $98.92 per barrel.
Gold prices moved higher despite the improvement in overall market sentiment, with the metal continuing to trade more closely in line with US dollar movements rather than traditional haven demand. Gold gained 1.37% on the session to finish at $4,544.19 per ounce.

Yen Traders on Edge Again
Yen traders are once again on edge, with USDJPY in particular trading in very tight ranges over the last few days. Traders are conscious that the Japanese authorities are monitoring the currency very closely at the moment, and the potential for intervention is high. USDJPY has topped out a few times just above 159.00 in the last few trading days, and some market participants feel the Bank of Japan may still be active, although in a more passive manner than what we saw at the end of April and a few times since. Fundamentals are clearly still pointing for the pair to move higher against the Ministry of Finance’s wishes, and the market feels that if we approach the key 160.00 level, we could see some more aggressive action again. For now, some traders are playing the market from the long side in line with fundamentals but are prepared to stop reverse on any intervention runs.

Busy Data Calendar Competes with Geopolitics Today
Given the moves we have seen overnight and the main drivers behind them, there is no doubt that geopolitics will have a substantial impact on the trading sessions ahead of us today. However, there is a busy economic calendar for traders to navigate as well. The initial focus in the Asian session will be on Australian employment data, with the Employment Change data expected to show a 16k gain last month and the Unemployment Rate remaining steady at 4.3%. There is a raft of Flash PMI figures being released across Europe, the UK, and the US later tonight. Traders will also be watching comments from Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey later in the day, alongside US Weekly Unemployment Claims (exp. 210k) and the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index (exp. 17.6), for further clues on the state of the US economy and central bank expectations.

Explore all upcoming market events in the Economic Calendar.

The post General Market Analysis – 21/05/26 first appeared on IC Your Trading Edge | Official Blog.

IC Markets Global – Asia Fundamental Forecast | 21 May 2026

What happened in the U.S. session?

Higher Treasury yields, persistent inflation concerns, and oil-linked risk sentiment, while the main macro focus was a batch of U.S. housing/mortgage-related data and the market’s read-through from recent inflation prints, rather than a major new blockbuster release. The instruments most affected were U.S. Treasury notes/bonds, U.S. stock index futures, crude oil, and the U.S. dollar, with rate-sensitive equities and the Nasdaq generally under the most pressure.

What does it mean for the Asia Session?

Thursday 21 May brings a batch of flash PMIs for Japan, the Eurozone, the UK, and the US that will set the early tone for risk appetite across Asia, with stronger‑than‑expected PMIs lifting equities and cyclical FX while softer prints push haven bids and bond yields lower. Japan releases April trade/inflation details, and BoJ speakers are scheduled, both important for JPY moves after recent policy commentary.

​
The Dollar Index (DXY)

Key news events today

Philly Fed Manufacturing Index (12:30 pm GMT)

Unemployment Claims (12:30 pm GMT)

Flash Manufacturing PMI (1:45 pm GMT)

Flash Services PMI (1:45 pm GMT)

What can we expect from DXY today?

The U.S. dollar is trading in a broadly cautious‑to‑soft pattern, broadly consistent with the year‑to‑date theme of modest weakness amid expectations of a relatively dovish Federal Reserve and continued geopolitical and fiscal worries around U.S. policy. The dollar index (DXY) remains near the lower end of its 2026 trading range, with technical support around the 90–100 band highlighted in recent forecasts.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is widely expected to hold the federal funds rate target range steady at 3.50%–3.75% at its April 28–29, 2026, meeting, as oil prices remain elevated around $108 per barrel for Brent crude amid ongoing US-Israel tensions with Iran, alongside surging inflation from energy shocks, further delaying any 2026 rate cuts potentially beyond September.
• The Committee continues to pursue maximum employment and 2% inflation goals, with the labor market showing mixed signals as nonfarm payrolls rose by 178,000 in March 2026—beating lowered expectations but driven partly by strike reversals—and the unemployment rate edged down to 4.3% from 4.4% in February.
• Officials face heightened risks from geopolitical tensions, soaring oil prices, and accelerating inflation, with CPI jumping to 3.3% year-over-year in March 2026 from 2.4% in February due to a 10.9% monthly energy surge, headline PCE pressured higher, and core PCE estimates around 3.1% or more.
• Economic activity continues to cool after robust Q4 2025 growth near 5%, with the Atlanta Fed GDPNow estimating Q1 2026 growth at 1.3% amid softer consumer spending, strike impacts, and labor data despite some resilience.
• March 2026’s Summary of Economic Projections forecasts 2026 unemployment at a median around 4.4%, GDP growth revised higher, and core PCE up to 2.7%, with the dot plot still signaling one cut in 2026 to a median 3.25%–3.50% funds rate amid softer labor but inflation upticks.
• The Committee maintains its data-dependent stance amid a mixed labor market, inflation well above target from oil shocks, and geopolitical risks, likely holding rates at 3.50%-3.75% with persistent divisions and hawkish tones on cuts.
• The FOMC continues its adjusted quantitative tightening, with Treasury rolloff caps at $5 billion per month and agency MBS at $35 billion per month to manage reserves amid post-2025 balance sheet adjustments.
• The next meeting is scheduled for 16 to 17 June 2026.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bullish

Gold (XAU)

Key news events today

Philly Fed Manufacturing Index (12:30 pm GMT)

Unemployment Claims (12:30 pm GMT)

Flash Manufacturing PMI (1:45 pm GMT)

Flash Services PMI (1:45 pm GMT)

What can we expect from Gold today?

Gold remains supported by safe‑haven flows, heavy institutional and central‑bank buying, and lingering geopolitical uncertainty, but the market is highly volatile—prices have traded near all‑time highs in early 2026 and experienced steep corrections since, while rising mine output and weaker physical jewelry demand may limit sustained gains unless fresh catalysts emerge.

Next 24 Hours Bias
Medium Bullish

The Australian Dollar (AUD)

Key news events today

Employment Change (1:30 am GMT)

Unemployment Rate (1:30 am GMT)

What can we expect from AUD today?

The Australian dollar is being supported by a combination of hawkish RBA expectations, resilient domestic conditions, and a generally constructive risk tone in markets. The currency is still hovering near the 0.71 level against the US dollar, so the main focus for traders remains whether upcoming Australian data and central bank signals reinforce the case for higher-for-longer rates or trigger some profit-taking.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) raised its cash rate by 25 basis points to 4.35% at the 5 May 2026 meeting, moving into a more restrictive stance as inflation pressures re‑accelerated and the board judged the previous 4.10% level insufficient to re‑anchor the medium‑term outlook.
• The RBA lifted the cash rate from 4.10% to 4.35% at the 5 May meeting in an 8–1 vote, flagging that the stance is now “more restrictive” and that the Council sees a low but non‑trivial chance of further hikes if inflation risks crystallise.
• Headline CPI has jumped to 4.6% year‑on‑year for the 12 months to March 2026, up from around 3.7% in February, with trimmed‑mean inflation still above 3.0% (about 3.3–3.8% depending on the series), keeping inflation clearly outside the 2–3% target band.
• Recent monthly indicators remain sticky in services, housing‑related costs, and discretionary spending, with January and March data showing only modest easing and some upside surprises in housing‑price‑related components, underpinning the case for a stronger‑than‑expected May hike.
• Global growth has been modestly revised up but remains tempered by ongoing geopolitical tensions, commodity‑price volatility, and elevated oil prices linked to the Middle East conflict, which directly feed into Australian import‑price and transport‑cost inflation.
• Markets now price the cash rate at 4.35% in June, with futures pathways suggesting a high‑probability hold at the June meeting and only a modest chance of another 25bp hike later in 2026, contingent on further upside in CPI or services‑price data.
• The RBA continues to emphasise its “data‑dependent” approach under the dual mandate, seeking to bring inflation back toward target without materially undershooting growth or employment, while acknowledging that the Middle East‑driven shock has shifted the path of inflation and policy.
• The May communication leaned hawkishly neutral to hawkish, with the decision to hike by 25bp and a run‑of‑material referencing rising inflation expectations and the risk of second‑round effects, while still leaving room for a pause in June if upcoming monthly CPI and labour‑force data show a moderating trend.
• The next meeting is on 15 to 16 June 2026.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish

The Kiwi Dollar (NZD)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from NZD today?

The New Zealand dollar is holding near recent levels around NZD/USD mid‑0.58 to low‑0.59, consolidating after earlier swings driven by US‑Iran geopolitical noise and shifting US‑dollar dynamics. The kiwi remains constrained by a cautious RBNZ outlook that has pushed the first rate hike out to July, alongside below‑trend domestic sentiment, even as traders still see scope for further tightening later this year.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is widely expected to hold the Official Cash Rate (OCR) steady at 2.25% at its 8 April 2026 Monetary Policy Review, aligning with unanimous market consensus from Reuters polls and previews.
• The MPC continues its data-dependent “wait-and-see” approach after February’s pause, balancing stimulus from prior 325-basis-point cuts against inflation’s path back to the 2% target, with readiness for gradual normalization only if the recovery strengthens or inflation exceeds forecasts.
• Headline CPI, last at 3.1%, is on track to re-enter the 1-3% band in Q2 2026 and hit 2% by mid-2027, aided by spare capacity, moderating wages, and softer food/fuel prices; two-year business inflation expectations have ticked up slightly to 2.37%.
• Household spending and housing remain subdued amid cautious consumption, low net migration, and labor market softness, though easing retail rates support budgets; high-frequency GDP indicators show steadying momentum in an early recovery phase.
• Accommodative borrowing costs from the low OCR are boosting mortgage approvals and sentiment, but business credit growth lags due to uneven confidence; overall stimulus persists below the 3% neutral rate.
• Risks are balanced, with a favorable global environment—including stronger dairy/meat exports and a softer NZ dollar—offsetting oil shocks and prior China/US trade worries; vigilance remains on second-round inflation effects.
• Forecasts point to potential OCR hikes starting late 2026 (e.g., December) or early 2027 to 2.50% by year-end if activity/inflation firms, but policy stays supportive if recovery unfolds gradually as expected.
• The next meeting is on 27 May 2026.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bearish

The Japanese Yen (JPY)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from JPY today?

The tug-of-war between a strong dollar and Japan’s willingness to intervene to slow yen weakness. The currency was recently near 158–160 per dollar, with market attention focused on whether Japanese officials will act again if selling resumes, especially because the yen has been very sensitive to comments from policymakers and to U.S. rate expectations.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Policy Board of the Bank of Japan left the short‑term policy rate unchanged at 0.75% at the 27–28 April 2026 meeting, with markets broadly expecting the same level into May 2026 as the bank continues a data‑dependent, gradual‑normalisation stance.
• The BOJ targets the uncollateralized overnight call rate around 0.75%, signaling that any further hikes toward 1.0% will hinge on wage‑inflation persistence, yen stability, and real‑activity data rather than a pre‑announced timetable.
• JGB tapering continues on plan, with outright purchases trimmed by ¥400 billion quarterly through Q1 2026, then reduced to ¥200 billion from April onward, aiming for roughly ¥2–3 trillion in monthly net purchases by mid‑2026, adjustable if market or yen volatility spikes.
• Japan’s economy posts moderate growth into Q1 2026, supported by resilient exports and prior stimulus, but the BOJ has downgraded its 2026 growth outlook as external headwinds and Middle‑East‑related shocks weigh on the pace.
• Core CPI (ex‑fresh food) is running in the mid‑1% range y/y, with headline inflation at about 1.5% y/y in March 2026, while core‑core measures remain above 2%, reflecting sticky services‑side and wage‑driven inflation.
• Input‑cost pressures ease from prior peaks, yet services inflation, the 2026 shunto wage deals near 5%, and expectations anchored above 2% support continued price pressures, with upside risks from further yen weakness and geopolitical spikes.
• Near‑term real GDP may run below trend due to policy tightening and external shocks (e.g., Iran‑related energy risks), but negative real rates, wage gains, and targeted fiscal/capex support should underpin a gradual rebound in consumption and investment.
• Medium‑term, overseas recovery, labor‑shortage‑driven wage growth, and productivity improvements are expected to keep core inflation near or above 2%, enabling the BOJ to gradually lift rates toward 1.0% in 2026–2027 if activity and wage‑inflation conditions remain aligned.
• The next meeting is on 15 to 16 June 2026.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Strong Bearish

Oil

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from Oil today?

Oil prices remain elevated near $110/barrel in mid-May 2026, driven by ongoing Middle East tensions between the US and Iran that have disrupted supply through the Strait of Hormuz, though prices stabilized after Trump delayed military action against Iran. The conflict has pushed oil prices up approximately 50% since its onset, with traders on Kalshi predicting WTI could reach nearly $127/barrel later in 2026.

Next 24 Hours Bias
Medium Bullish

The post IC Markets Global – Asia Fundamental Forecast | 21 May 2026 first appeared on IC Your Trading Edge | Official Blog.

Global Markets:

•  Asian Stock Markets : Nikkei down 1.52%, Shanghai Composite down 0.45% Hang Seng down 0.54% ASX down 1.26%
• Commodities : Gold at $4,462.15 (-0.52%) Silver at $73.890 (-0.15%), Brent Oil at $110.71 (-0.24%), WTI Oil at $103.76 (-0.22%)
• Rates : US 10-year yield at 4.670, UK 10-year yield at 5.1320, Germany 10-year yield at 3.1885

News & Data:

• (CAD) CPI m/m  0.4%  to 0.7%   expected

Markets Update:

Asia-Pacific markets declined Wednesday as investors assessed rising bond yields and renewed geopolitical tensions after U.S. President Donald Trump said he was “an hour away” from approving a strike on Iran before delaying the decision for several days.

U.S. Treasury yields climbed as investors sold bonds amid fears that inflation pressures could return. The 30-year Treasury yield briefly touched 5.197%, its highest level since July 2007, before easing slightly to 5.174%.

In Japan, super-long government bond yields cooled after recent record highs, with the 30-year JGB yield falling more than 3 basis points to 4.122%. However, shorter-term debt remained under pressure, with the 5-year JGB yield reaching a record 2.041%.

State Street strategist Masahiko Loo said rising Japanese bond yields are contributing to a broader global “duration reset,” but are unlikely to create systemic financial stress. He noted that Japan’s debt market remains largely domestically funded and supported by strong household savings.

Regional equities weakened broadly. Japan’s Nikkei 225 dropped 1.29% and the Topix fell 1.45%. South Korea’s Kospi lost 0.69%, while the Kosdaq slid 2.23%. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 declined 0.85%. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng fell 0.55%, and mainland China’s CSI 300 slipped 0.3%.

U.S. stock futures edged higher after Wall Street closed lower overnight.

Upcoming Events:

• 12:30 PM GMT – CAD CPI m/m

The post Wednesday 20th May 2026: Rising Bond Yields and Iran Tensions Drag Asia-Pacific Markets Lower first appeared on IC Your Trading Edge | Official Blog.

The post Ex-Dividend 21/05/2026 first appeared on IC Your Trading Edge | Official Blog.

IC Markets Global – Europe Fundamental Forecast | 20 May 2026

What happened in the Asia session?

A dovish‑but‑cautious tone from China’s hold on LPRs, while a soft India core‑sector print reinforced concerns about infrastructure‑linked activity, even as PMIs show improvement. Global bond‑yield pressures and ongoing Middle‑East tensions filtered into the region, keeping Asian equities and commodity‑linked assets in a tight, risk‑averse range.

What does it mean for the Europe & US sessions?

Traders should focus on euro‑area inflation data out of the ECB zone this morning, which will anchor positioning in European bonds, the euro, and the broader risk‑on/off balance, while the afternoon U.S. session brings pending‑home‑sales and Fed‑speaker commentary that could re-anchor the term‑structure of U.S. yields and sentiment around the Fed’s tolerance for persistently elevated inflation.
​
The Dollar Index (DXY)

Key news events today

FOMC Meeting Minutes(6:00 pm GMT)

What can we expect from DXY today?

The dollar is firmer today, with the DXY around 99.3 and the greenback extending the rebound it built over the past week. The main drivers are still the same: higher U.S. rate expectations, stronger Treasury yields, and a lingering safe-haven bid as markets watch the Middle East and trade headlines.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is widely expected to hold the federal funds rate target range steady at 3.50%–3.75% at its April 28–29, 2026, meeting, as oil prices remain elevated around $108 per barrel for Brent crude amid ongoing US-Israel tensions with Iran, alongside surging inflation from energy shocks, further delaying any 2026 rate cuts potentially beyond September.
• The Committee continues to pursue maximum employment and 2% inflation goals, with the labor market showing mixed signals as nonfarm payrolls rose by 178,000 in March 2026—beating lowered expectations but driven partly by strike reversals—and the unemployment rate edged down to 4.3% from 4.4% in February.
• Officials face heightened risks from geopolitical tensions, soaring oil prices, and accelerating inflation, with CPI jumping to 3.3% year-over-year in March 2026 from 2.4% in February due to a 10.9% monthly energy surge, headline PCE pressured higher, and core PCE estimates around 3.1% or more.
• Economic activity continues to cool after robust Q4 2025 growth near 5%, with the Atlanta Fed GDPNow estimating Q1 2026 growth at 1.3% amid softer consumer spending, strike impacts, and labor data despite some resilience.
• March 2026’s Summary of Economic Projections forecasts 2026 unemployment at a median around 4.4%, GDP growth revised higher, and core PCE up to 2.7%, with the dot plot still signaling one cut in 2026 to a median 3.25%–3.50% funds rate amid softer labor but inflation upticks.
• The Committee maintains its data-dependent stance amid a mixed labor market, inflation well above target from oil shocks, and geopolitical risks, likely holding rates at 3.50%-3.75% with persistent divisions and hawkish tones on cuts.
• The FOMC continues its adjusted quantitative tightening, with Treasury rolloff caps at $5 billion per month and agency MBS at $35 billion per month to manage reserves amid post-2025 balance sheet adjustments.
• The FOMC continues its adjusted quantitative tightening, with Treasury rolloff caps at $5 billion per month and agency MBS at $35 billion per month to ensure ample reserves post-2025 program adjustments.
• The next meeting is scheduled for 16 to 17  June 2026.

Next 24 Hours Bias
Medium Bullish

Gold (XAU)

Key news events today

FOMC Meeting Minutes(6:00 pm GMT)

What can we expect from Gold today?

Gold prices are holding near historically high levels in the mid‑ to upper-four-thousand-dollar range per ounce, underpinned by geopolitical uncertainty, central‑bank buying, and strong investment demand, while short‑term technical pullbacks and episodes of stronger risk appetite keep the market range‑bound rather than in a clear new uptrend.

Next 24 Hours Bias   
Weak Bearish

The Euro (EUR)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from EUR today?

Slightly weaker EUR/USD rate, with the pair at about 1.1606 on May 19, 2026, down 0.44% from the previous session, and on broader euro-area economic and policy news showing modest growth and active EU trade and security measures. Eurostat reported that GDP and employment in the euro area both rose 0.1%, suggesting a still-soft but positive economic backdrop. At the same time, the European Parliament reported progress on EU-US trade stabilization, new foreign investment screening rules, and measures aimed at steel market protection and critical medicine supply.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Governing Council of the ECB is expected to keep the three key interest rates unchanged at its 28–29 May 2026 meeting, with the main refinancing rate near 2.15%, the marginal lending facility at 2.40%, and the deposit facility at 2.00%.
• Headline HICP inflation is likely to remain in the 2.0–2.3% range in the early months of 2026, with the March 2026 ECB staff baseline projecting an average of 2.6% for 2026, 2.0% for 2027, and 2.1% for 2028.
• The updated Eurosystem staff projections for 2026 paint a picture of persistent inflation overshoot, with headline inflation averages of around 2.6% in 2026, 2.0% in 2027, and 2.1% in 2028, compared with about 1.9–2.1% earlier outlooks.
• Real GDP growth is projected at about 0.9% in 2026, 1.3% in 2027, and 1.4% in 2028, implying around 0.2–0.3% quarter‑on‑quarter expansion in Q2 2026, consistent with the resilience observed at the end of 2025.
• The euro area unemployment rate is expected to stay near 6.4%, with strong labour‑force participation and modest wage pressures underpinning consumption resilience.
• The Governing Council continues to stress a meeting‑by‑meeting, data‑dependent approach, focusing on the path of inflation, the functioning of monetary‑policy transmission, and the impact of external shocks (geopolitical, energy, and trade‑policy related).
• Balance‑sheet normalization proceeds smoothly, with the APP and PEPP wind‑downs completed and the remaining stock of longer‑dated assets being allowed to run off without significant liquidity shortages.

​The next meeting is on 10 to 11 June 2026

Next 24 Hours Bias
Weak Bearish

The Swiss Franc (CHF)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from CHF today?

The Swiss franc remained bid on Wednesday as investors sought a safe-haven amid mixed global growth signals and ongoing euro weakness; EUR/CHF traded near multi‑year lows around the low-0.90s while USD/CHF was in the mid-to-high 0.80s, and commentary from banks and analysts continued to expect structural franc strength even as the SNB has shown restraint about active intervention.

Central Bank Notes:

• At its monetary policy assessment on 19 March 2026, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) is widely expected to leave the policy rate unchanged at 0%, continuing the extended pause since September 2025, as the Governing Board considers current settings adequate to keep inflation near the target without resorting to negative rates.
• Inflation data since December indicate persistent weakness, with headline CPI hovering around 0% year-on-year through early 2026 and core measures subdued at roughly 0.4%, underscoring limited price pressures and lingering, though contained, deflation risks.
• The SNB’s updated conditional inflation forecast shows minimal change from December, with averages of about 0.2% in 2025 (now complete), 0.3% in 2026, and 0.6% in 2027 under a steady 0% policy rate. However, recent flat CPI readings may slightly lower near-term expectations, preserving scope for further easing if needed.
• Global conditions remain challenging, marked by U.S. tariff escalations under President Trump, subdued external demand, and uncertainties in major export markets such as Europe and the U.S., prompting the SNB to exercise caution despite resilient Swiss domestic activity.
• Sentiment in manufacturing and export sectors stays soft amid franc appreciation and weaker foreign orders, squeezing margins. Yet, overall GDP growth is expected to be around 1.5% in 2026, with unemployment edging up modestly from historic lows.
• The SNB reaffirms its readiness to intervene via rate cuts or FX operations should deflationary pressures intensify, while emphasizing clear communication through detailed meeting minutes and coordination with global partners on currency matters.

The next meeting is on 18 June 2026.

Next 24 Hours Bias
Weak Bearish

The Pound (GBP)

Key news events today

CPI y/y (6:00 am GMT)

Monetary Policy Report Hearings (1:15 pm GMT)

What can we expect from GBP today?

The pound is trading slightly weaker, extending a softening trend seen over the past few weeks amid modest risk‑off sentiment and lingering concerns about UK‑specific political and growth uncertainty. Against the dollar, GBP/USD has eased further from recent highs, with the pair hovering around 1.34–1.35 as safe‑haven demand for the US dollar remains supported by global geopolitical tensions and elevated oil prices.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) met on 29 April 2026, maintaining the Bank Rate at 3.75 per cent, with the decision details published on 30 April 2026 alongside the quarterly Monetary Policy Report. This hold follows the unanimous 9-0 vote at the prior 18 March 2026 meeting, amid persistent energy shocks from the Middle East conflict overriding earlier cut expectations. No specific vote split for April has been detailed yet, but consensus previews indicate a hold.
• Quantitative tightening (QT) continues unchanged at the 2025 pace for gilt holdings reductions, supporting balance-sheet normalization while monitoring liquidity and maintaining restrictiveness against ongoing shocks.
• Headline CPI inflation rose to 3.3% in March 2026 from energy and motor fuel surges due to Middle East tensions, expected to stay between 3% and 3.5% through the summer, well above the 2% target. The April Monetary Policy Report outlines scenarios in which inflation peaks above 3.5% by the end of 2026 in the baseline, then eases below 2% in three years, or reaches 6%+ in adverse cases requiring tighter policy.
• UK growth outlook weakens further into Q2-Q3 2026 amid energy-driven cost pressures, rising unemployment risks, and softening confidence, with prior pay growth cooling now vulnerable to business pass-throughs.
• Global risks from the Middle East conflict persist, fueling energy/commodity volatility and sterling/gilt fluctuations; MPC views direct impacts as containable if demand slackens to curb secondary inflation effects.
• Inflation risks remain upward-biased due to energy persistence, potential wage embedding, and shock duration uncertainty, balanced against downside from economic slack and labor market softening.
• The MPC maintains a data-dependent stance, with policy still restrictive; the April Report provides fuller shock analysis, but no easing is signaled, yet members monitor for 2% sustainability, with Governor Bailey emphasizing vigilance.
• The next meeting is on 18 June 2026.

  Next 24 Hours Bias
  Weak Bullish

The Canadian Dollar (CAD)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from CAD today?

The Canadian dollar is weaker as a stronger US dollar, rising U.S. bond yields and reduced oil support press the loonie, while the Bank of Canada’s recent minutes showing a willingness to remain patient have tempered rate-differential expectations that would otherwise support CAD; USD/CAD is trading around the mid-1.36–1.38 range and markets are watching upcoming Canadian inflation and economic data plus global risk drivers for near-term direction.
​
Central Bank Notes:

• The Governing Council held the overnight rate target steady at 2.25% at its 28-29 April 2026 meeting, matching consensus expectations and prolonging the policy pause as inflation trends firmer toward target. The Bank highlighted lingering global headwinds from Middle East tensions and U.S. tariff escalations under Trump, but confirmed the stance continues fostering disinflation amid moderating energy volatility.
• U.S. trade frictions and geopolitical strains persist in dampening sentiment, yet Canadian manufacturing PMI strengthened further in expansion, driven by robust export orders tied to sustained energy demand. Goods exports, anchored by crude oil, maintained strength through March, countering subdued capex as businesses emphasize operational buffers over expansion.
• Economic growth extended into Q2 2026 at roughly 2.1% annualized, sustaining Q1’s momentum via resource shipments, public spending, and industrial recovery. March preliminary figures suggest resilient expansion, tempered slightly by seasonal factors and lingering supply disruptions.
• Services PMI rose deeper into expansion territory, with gains across tech, leisure, and professional services; consumer segments showed firmer footing from wage gains, despite elevated prices curbing non-essentials. The Bank views this breadth as signaling a balanced, sustainable upturn.
• ​National housing resales climbed modestly in March alongside stable prices, supported by steady rates and regional affordability pockets, as inventory accumulation in key markets avoids sharp imbalances. Policymakers expect gradual softening, underpinned by sound lending standards and consistent household dynamics.
• Headline CPI held near 2.0% year-over-year in March 2026 prints, within the target band, with core metrics like CPI-trim and median easing to around 2.5% on easing food, goods, and partial shelter relief. This bolsters confidence in inflation’s durable path to 2%.
• Officials affirmed 2.25% appropriately positions the economy for 2% inflation stability and orderly rebalancing, with cuts off the table absent growth or price setbacks. Focus shifts to Q2 momentum, core trends, and trade/geopolitical developments ahead of June.
• The next meeting is on 10 June 2026.

Next 24 Hours Bias
Medium Bullish

Oil

Key news events today

EIA Crude Oil Inventories (2:30 pm GMT)

What can we expect from Oil today?

Global oil prices on Wednesday stay near the upper‑$100s for Brent and the mid‑$90s for WTI, reflecting continued risk‑on pricing due to the effectively closed Strait of Hormuz and the unresolved U.S.–Iran war, which has disrupted a major share of global seaborne flows. Recent comments from President Trump rejecting Iran’s peace proposals have briefly pushed Brent back above $105, underscoring how diplomatic and military signals are still the main drivers of volatility.

Next 24 Hours Bias
Strong Bullish

The post IC Markets Global – Europe Fundamental Forecast | 20 May 2026 first appeared on IC Your Trading Edge | Official Blog.