Market News

Gold came under renewed pressure yesterday as another selloff in equities weighed on precious metals. Gold has been tightly correlated with the stock market recently, with the latest losses seemingly driven by investors liquidating positions to cover losses elsewhere in their portfolios.

Chart: You can see the correlation between the Nasdaq (blue line) and gold (candlesticks)

To understand the mechanics, imagine that an investment fund holds stocks, gold and government bonds. Some stocks suddenly crash, and the fund suffers losses on leveraged positions. The fund may need to raise cash to meet margin calls, reduce leverage or satisfy investor redemptions. Rather…

• Prior +0.2%
• GDP Y/Y +0.8% vs +0.9% y/y expected
• Prior +1.0%

Italy's economy unexpectedly stalled in the third quarter of 2026, with GDP remaining unchanged q/q, following 0.2% growth in the previous quarter. On an annual basis, GDP increased by 0.8%, pointing to a relatively modest pace of economic expansion.

On the supply side, services and agriculture provided positive contributions to growth, while industrial activity declined. The weakness in industry remains a concern, particularly given the sector's importance to Italy's export-oriented economy.

On the demand side, domestic demand, including changes in inventories, supported economic activity, while net foreign demand acted as a drag. This suggests that domestic spending continues to…

The state readings released around the same time:

• Bavaria September CPI +2.8% vs +3.2% y/y prior
• Saxony September CPI +2.9% vs +3.3% y/y prior
• North Rhine Westphalia September CPI +2.7% vs +3.3% y/y prior
• Baden Wuerttemberg September CPI +2.6% vs +2.9% y/y prior

After the acceleration in September, headline inflation is seen cooling back a little in German states. While base effects are part of the reason, the re-implementation of specific energy tax reductions and fuel discounts enacted at the start of the month are arguably also playing a part here.

So, that is leading to cooler price pressures overall but still relatively elevated when compared to the months before this.

Putting the estimates together, it offers an indication that German…

• Spain October preliminary CPI +4.9% vs +4.9% y/y expected
• Prior +4.9%
• Spain October preliminary HICP +4.9% vs +4.9% y/y expected
• Prior +5.0%

Spanish inflation continues to hover around 5% in October, as the preliminary estimates continue to paint a rather uncomfortable picture for the most part. Headline annual inflation remains steady at 4.9% while the harmonised reading eased marginally to 4.9% as well. So, that's not saying a lot after the run higher in the past few months amid a surge energy prices due to the Middle East conflict.

And with higher oil prices continuing to stick, that will certainly add to the inflation headache in Q4.

Looking at the details, core annual inflation is seen at 3.1% - unchanged compared to September. But at this…

• Spain Q3 preliminary GDP +0.6% vs +0.6% q/q expected
• Prior +0.7%
• Spain Q3 preliminary GDP +2.7% vs +2.7% y/y expected
• Prior +2.6%

It is the preliminary report, so there aren't much details to work with here besides the headline figures above.

The quarterly figure does show a bit of a slowdown in Spanish economic growth in the third quarter, albeit marginally. And among the bigger names in the euro area, Spain is still very much punching above its weight in carrying the more optimistic banner for the region.

The only issue is that inflation pressures in Spain is also starting to get out of hand. Headline annual inflation is bordering on 5% in October with core annual inflation holding above 3%. Those numbers are way beyond what the ECB would be…

European stocks are opening mostly lower today as the risk-off mood continues to reverberate across global markets. The renewed selloff in tech shares is not helping, after Amazon's earnings added another layer of anxiety surrounding AI spending. Here are the opening changes:

• Eurostoxx -0.8%
• Germany DAX -0.3%
• France CAC 40 flat
• UK FTSE +0.3%
• Spain IBEX -1.0%
• Italy FTSE MIB -1.2%

Italian and Spanish stocks are leading the declines, with the latter continuing its miserable run this week and threatening fresh three-month lows again. The struggle in Spain largely comes amid the fallout from Brazil's election shock, particularly among banking stocks and other companies with significant exposure to the country - namely Santander, Telefonica, and Mapfre.

• Prior +0.3%
• GDP Y/Y +xx% vs 1.1% expected
• Prior +1.0%

IC – Asia Fundamental Forecast | 30 October 2026

What happened in the U.S. session?

The tension between resilient U.S. economic growth and persistent inflation remains the strongest fundamental theme. This keeps the Fed outlook uncertain. Gold remains vulnerable to higher-rate expectations, while the dollar could receive support if markets increasingly anticipate another rate hike. Oil remains sensitive to geopolitical developments, and technology stocks face additional pressure from concerns about AI spending.

What does it mean for the Asia Session?

Asian markets enter Friday with monetary policy and economic growth expectations taking center stage. The Bank of Japan’s interest-rate decision is likely to be the biggest regional catalyst,…

IC – Europe Fundamental Forecast | 30 October 2026

What happened in the Asia session?

Asian markets experienced a risk-off trading environment on Friday as concerns about massive AI investment spending triggered heavy selling in technology shares. South Korea and Japan were among the hardest-hit markets, while investors moved towards safer government bonds.

The Japanese yen remained in focus ahead of the BOJ’s interest-rate decision, with markets expecting rates to remain at 1.25% but watching for signals of a possible December increase. Japanese inflation remained above target, although slower retail sales highlighted some weakness in consumer spending.

What does it mean for the European & US sessions?

Today’s trading environment…

• France October preliminary CPI +3.4% vs +3.2% y/y expected
• Prior +3.1%
• France October preliminary HICP +3.8% vs +3.6% y/y expected
• Prior +3.4%

French inflation is seen accelerating again in October, as the preliminary estimates show headline annual inflation climbing to its highest since December 2023. Yowza.

The main culprit is once again energy prices, as that continues to fuel much of the headline price increase. No pun intended. Of note, energy price inflation was up 24.1% annually in October compared to 21.3% in the month before.

The detailed breakdown shows food price inflation softening slightly to 1.2% in October but services inflation is seen picking up further to 2.7% from 2.4% in the month before. The latter is a real issue as it…