Market News

Bitcoin price analysis today: BTC futures trapped in a two-way decision zone

Bitcoin futures remain neutral between $64,940 and $65,380, where nearby support and resistance increase the risk of whipsaws. Acceptance above $65,380 would give buyers a clearer intraday advantage, while sustained trade below $64,940 would strengthen the bearish case.

Key takeaways for Bitcoin traders today

• Current market state: Neutral and vulnerable to false breakouts
• Bullish above:$65,380
• Bullish targets:$65,480, $65,610, $65,730 and $65,870
• Bearish below:$64,940
• Bearish targets:$64,880, $64,735 and $64,670
• Deeper bearish target:$64,190
• Neutral decision zone:$64,940-$65,380

This is a pure investingLive tradeCompass analysis without a prediction score. The objective…

Headlines:

• Middle East tensions remain heightened with the weekend drawing closer
• Oil prices come off the boil in final stretch of the week
• Oil Analysis Today: Tactical Bearish Bias Takes Hold Near $90 Support Shelf as Markets Weigh ECB Pause and Iran Tensions
• ECB's Kocher: Don't see evidence of second-round effects but will act if inflation outlook deteriorates
• ECB policymaker Nagel says should not pre-commit to any rate move before September meeting
• French business activity stabilises in July amid strong rebound in the services economy
• Germany July flash manufacturing PMI 52.2 vs 50.5 expected
• Euro area business activity rises for first time in four months as demand conditions rebound
• UK July flash services PMI 51.8 vs 49.4 expected
• UK retail…

USD/JPY has been a key focus in trading this week and all the while as oil prices ramp higher alongside bond yields, the currency pair is also gradually pushing up in hitting fresh 40-year highs. After some trepidation in May, it has been one-way traffic for the currency pair in recent weeks. That being said, the move higher has been gradual and managed with traders not wanting to run too far, too fast.

There was a bit of a scare in early July but since then, traders have become emboldened to take USD/JPY higher with the US-Iran conflict starting up again.

While Tokyo officials have been offering some verbal intervention, MUFG believes that the current price action in USD/JPY doesn't quite warrant any intervention plays just yet.

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While a strategy doesn't guarantee a profit and risks remain real, it is a sensible, well-proven tool that is well worth adopting. Even a good strategy isn't foolproof and can fail on any individual trade. However, because it takes broader market dynamics and trends into account, it pays off in the long run…

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW

Gold erased most of the gains from the likely technical-driven rebound of the last couple of days. The rebound lacked support from the near-term fundamentals as the prolonged US-Iran conflict pushed oil prices even higher and traders increased rate hike bets.

There’s not much to look at on the fundamental side than just monitoring the US-Iran developments. A de-escalation would lead to a dovish repricing and trigger a relief rally in gold, but as long as the conflict continues, the tightening in financial conditions will keep the market under pressure.

There is also some fear that the Fed could surprise with a rate hike at the upcoming July meeting…

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The main focus in markets is still on US-Iran tensions and that hasn't really changed much since the start of the week. From earlier: Middle East tensions remain heightened with the weekend drawing closer

But after four days of grappling with more doom and gloom, the mood in markets today is hinting at a bit of a light breather. Well, for now at least.

Oil prices are nudging back down and coming off the boil, with WTI crude lower by 3% today to drop back under $90.

[WTI crude oil daily chart ($/bbl)]

The chart above will be one to watch as price action is now being called back towards a test of the 100-day moving average (red line). Keep above that and the more bullish momentum obtained yesterday will continue to hold. But drop below the key…

Key takeaway for gold traders today: August gold futures have recovered above $4,050, but buyers still need acceptance above $4,068 to strengthen the recovery. A break below $4,038 would suggest that the rebound is failing and could return the gold price toward the $4,031-$4,024 support cluster.

August gold futures were trading near $4,055 at the time of this analysis, following a strong rebound from an overnight low near $4,024.

The recovery has improved the intraday picture, but it follows a much larger decline from Wednesday’s high near $4,171. Gold has therefore repaired some of the immediate damage without yet reversing the entire decline.

Importantly, short-term weakness does not automatically determine the longer-term gold outlook. A…

IC – Europe Fundamental Forecast | 24 July 2026

What happened in the Asia session?

The Asia session was dominated by risk-off sentiment rather than economic data releases. Escalating Middle East tensions pushed crude oil above $100 per barrel, renewing inflation concerns and lifting global bond yields. This strengthened the U.S. dollar, weakened the yen and other major currencies, and weighed heavily on Asian stock markets. With no major Asian macroeconomic releases, traders focused on geopolitical risks, BOJ policy expectations, and positioning ahead of the European PMI surveys and the UK Retail Sales data scheduled later today.

What does it mean for the Europe & US sessions?

Today’s focus shifts from yesterday’s labor market data to…

• Prior 48.8
• Manufacturing PMI 52.8 vs 52.0 expected
• Prior 52.5
• Composite PMI 52.1 vs 49.7 expected
• Prior 49.3

Key Findings:

• UK private sector business activity returns to growth in July

Comment:

Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence:

“UK businesses reported stronger activity in July, pointing to a faster pace of economic growth at the start of the third quarter. “Hospitality companies saw demand boosted by good weather, the FIFA World Cup and more domestic holidays, as high costs and uncertainty continued to deter some foreign travel. However, overall services growth remained lacklustre amid cost-of-living pressures. Unusually for recent years, manufacturing is now growing faster than services, buoyed by…

• July flash services PMI 51.6 vs 49.8 expected
• Prior 49.4
• July flash manufacturing PMI 52.0 vs 51.5 expected
• Prior 51.4
• July flash composite PMI 51.9 vs 50.3 expected
• Prior 50.3

It's all good news for the euro area economy to start Q3, with better readings across both the services and manufacturing sectors. Overall business activity expanded further with the services print being a 5-month high and manufacturing print a 3-month high. On the latter, the manufacturing output index even shot up to a 52-month high and underscores the recovery especially in the German scene.

The rise in output in July was in line with a renewed increase in new orders, the first in five months. Although modest, the rate of growth was the fastest since April 2023.

Adding…