Market News

•  Asian Stock Markets : Nikkei down 3.01%, Shanghai Composite down 1.20% Hang Seng down 1.23% ASX down 0.95%
• Commodities : Gold at $4,033.90 (-0.40%) Silver at $57.650 (-0.70%), Brent Oil at 100.70 (0.01%), WTI Oil at 91.99 (-0.22%)
• Rates : US 10-year yield at 4.709, UK 10-year yield at 5.1036, Germany 10-year yield at 3.2115

• (EUR)   Main Refinancing Rate  2.40%  to  2.40% expected

(USD)   Unemployment Claims  187K    to  211K  expected

U.S. stock futures were little changed on Thursday night after a broad market sell-off driven by surging oil prices and disappointing earnings from major technology companies. S&P 500 futures were flat, while Nasdaq-100 and Dow futures…

Crude oil price analysis today: CL tests critical $90 support as sellers take control

CL crude oil futures are tactically bearish after reversing sharply from $93.50, but the decline is now testing important support around $90.10-$90.30. Sellers retain control below $91.70-$91.85, although chasing the market lower at current prices offers less attractive reward-to-risk. A sustained break below $90.15 would strengthen the case for a deeper correction.

Key takeaways for crude oil traders today

• Prediction score:-5 on a scale from -10 to +10
• Immediate bias: Bearish, but becoming stretched near support
• Primary support:$90.10-$90.30
• Bearish threshold: Sustained trade below $90.15
• Early recovery signal: Reclaim of $90.55-$90.65
• Meaningful bullish…

• Prior 50.3
• Services PMI 49.6 vs 49.0 expected
• Prior 48.6
• Composite PMI 51.2 vs 49.8 expected
• Prior 49.5

Key findings:

German PMI climbs back into growth territory in July, driven by expansion in manufacturing production

Comment:

Phil Smith, Economics Associate Director at S&P Global Market Intelligence:

"The German economy made a positive start to the third quarter, with the Composite PMI returning to growth territory after having signalled a three-month spell of contraction following the outbreak of war in the Middle East. However, given the escalating hostilities in the region in the past week or so, which have put renewed upward pressure on global energy prices, the path to a sustainable recovery still seems very much uncertain.

…

• July flash services PMI 49.8 vs 47.5 expected
• Prior 46.8
• July flash manufacturing PMI 50.0 vs 51.0 expected
• Prior 51.2
• July flash composite PMI 49.6 vs 47.8 expected
• Prior 47.2

The services print is a 7-month high and that is carrying the French economy in July, amid a step back in the manufacturing sector on the month.

Of note, demand for services was seen rising for the first time since November last year. So, that brought much stabilisation to the overall economy - even if still in contraction territory, albeit marginally.

That being said, private sector employment remained under pressure and declined again while business optimism stayed subdued. So, there's that.

The only other good news at least is that input cost and output price inflation…

US Stocks Hit as War Escalates – Nasdaq down 2.15%
Global financial markets traded sharply lower overnight as investors continued to grapple with escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and growing concerns over elevated artificial intelligence spending. A combination of rising oil prices, higher Treasury yields, and a stronger US dollar weighed heavily on investor sentiment, prompting broad-based selling across US equity markets.

Wall Street finished firmly in negative territory, with technology stocks once again leading the declines. The Nasdaq dropped 2.15% as investors continued to reduce exposure to high-growth sectors, while the S&P 500 fell 1.21%. The Dow Jones also lost ground, declining 0.97% as risk appetite…

IC – Asia Fundamental Forecast | 24 July 2026

What happened in the U.S. session?

Markets were dominated by renewed geopolitical risk, a sharp surge in crude oil prices, and risk-off sentiment across global equities rather than major U.S. macroeconomic data releases. Brent crude briefly climbed above $100 per barrel for the first time since May after attacks on Saudi oil tankers and escalating U.S.-Iran tensions raised fears of supply disruptions through key Middle East shipping routes. The jump in energy prices reignited concerns that higher inflation could keep the Federal Reserve more hawkish, pushing U.S. Treasury yields higher and weighing heavily on risk assets.

What does it mean for the Asia Session?

Asian traders should begin…

• ECB is well positioned to be vigilant for the next couple of weeks
• I don't see any hard evidence of second-round effects
• ECB will act if inflation outlook deteriorates
• Recent developments in oil markets are concerning
• Growth forecast isn't great, but I don't see a recession

The ECB left all three key interest rates unchanged yesterday, opting to assess incoming data after an extended tightening cycle. However, policymakers stressed that uncertainty surrounding energy prices remains elevated and that they are closely monitoring whether the recent rise in oil prices feeds into broader inflation pressures.

Kocher echoed those concerns, saying the ECB is "well positioned to be vigilant for the next couple of weeks" as policymakers evaluate the…

There are just a few expiries to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold below.

They are for EUR/USD at the 1.1350 and 1.1430 levels. That being said, the expiries should not have much of any impact barring any major surprises.

The dollar is back in control again with EUR/USD dipping back under 1.1400. So, I'd pin offers at the figure level and the 100-hour and 200-hour moving averages at 1.1407-20 to be more important levels to watch in terms of price action at the moment. And that will be the upper limits to be mindful of should we get to any surprises from the euro area PMI data later.

But with markets already leaning heavily towards the ECB acting in September next, I don't see how the data today will shift the conversation…

• August consumer sentiment -29.6 vs -28.5 expected
• Prior -29.2; revised to -29.3

The German consumer climate remains gloomy heading into August as households remain cautious about spending amid more pessimism surrounding income expectations. While economic expectations may have improved (-6.3 from -8.7 previously), income expectations remain depressed (-14.5 from -12.2 previously). And the latter is still a cause of concern for German households at this stage, that especially with consumers being worried about how their finances will be impacted over the coming year.

The more cautious behaviour is also reflected in an increase in the willingness to save among households (17.0 from 13.9 previously). So, that tells a bit of the story that…

• June retail sales +1.0% vs -0.3% m/m expected
• Prior +1.2%
• June retail sales +4.2% vs +2.3% y/y expected
• Prior +3.2%; revised to +3.5%
• June retail sales (ex fuel, autos) +1.1% vs -0.4% m/m expected
• Prior +1.2%
• June retail sales (ex fuel, autos) +5.4% vs +3.2% y/y expected
• Prior +4.6%; revised to +4.9%

UK retail sales rose unexpectedly in June, with non-store retailing in particular seeing a strong surge in volume (+4.4%) on the month.

Retailers reported that sales promotions and the warm weather boosted sales of outdoor products and items such as fans. Besides that, increased sales of clothing and sports merchandise also benefitted the June figures for non-store retailers. I'm guessing England performing well in the World Cup has a lot to do with…

• ECB is in a good position to respond to surging energy prices
• We are still facing intense uncertainty
• The rate hike in June already put us in a good position from which we can monitor further developments closely
• We are seeing in the Middle East that the situation remains highly fragile
• ECB should not pre-committ to any policy moves in the meantime
• Should instead analyse the heaps of incoming data between now and the next meeting in September

The comments fit in line with the communique that the central bank put out yesterday after its latest policy decision. In case you missed it:

• ECB leaves deposit rate unchanged at 2.25%, as widely expected
• ECB's Lagarde: Recent data points to some improvement in economic activity

Lagarde herself reaffirmed…