Headlines:

• Iran says continues US strikes are violations of the ceasefire
• Iran maintains position that all frozen assets must be released without conditions
• Gold continues to slide amid lack of US-Iran breakthrough and hawkish Fed risks
• Mild dollar selling expected going into month-end fix – Credit Agricole
• ECB policymaker Lane says second-round effects would persist even after shock reversal
• ECB policymaker Stournaras confirms a rate hike in June is the most likely development
• ECB April meeting account notes that upside risks to inflation had intensified
• Euro area economic sentiment picks back up a little in May but headwinds linger

Markets:

• WTI crude up 3% to $91.37
• Stocks move down, DAX and CAC 40 both lower by 0.5% on the day
• S&P 500 futures down 0.3%, Nasdaq futures down 0.7%
• US dollar holds steadier across the board
• US 10-year yields up 2.5 bps to 4.506%
• Gold down 1.7% to $4,381

It was a slower session but one that saw markets move with caution as US-Iran tensions linger.

There’s still no official word on a framework agreement or memorandum of understanding, with hopes of it being “imminent” now fading. Iran continues to maintain a firm stance on their red lines and it remains to be seen how both sides will want to progress from here.

In the meantime, we’re seeing strikes continue between Israel and Lebanon and also with the US hitting Iran targets for the second time in three days. cEaSeFiRe MuCh?

Oil prices crept higher again as such with WTI crude up over 3% to $91.37 currently. Meanwhile, equities eased lower with major indices in Europe falling. The DAX and CAC 40 are both down by 0.5% on the day. US futures are also following suit with chipmakers lagging now. S&P 500 futures are down 0.3% while Nasdaq futures are down 0.7%.

As the risk mood slides back, we’re seeing bond yields push higher too. 10-year Treasury yields are back up by 2.5 bps to be above 4.50% again. Meanwhile, 30-year yields are also sitting near 2 bps higher to be near 5.03% on the day.

In the major currencies space, the dollar held firmer for the most part but saw early gains pull back a little. EUR/USD is down 0.1% to 1.1617 but was as low as 1.1585 earlier in the day. USD/JPY continues to keep around 159.40-50 levels, with intervention risks looming large the closer the pair gets to the 160.00 mark. Meanwhile, AUD/USD is down 0.3% to 0.7117 on the day.

Besides that, precious metals are also struggling hard with gold down 1.7% to $4,381 and silver down 2.1% to $73.03 at the moment. A dent to the recent optimism and renewed fears surrounding a more hawkish Fed are weighing on precious metals this week.

This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

CFDs on Commodities Expiry Information:

The post Futures/Bonds Expiry Information:Futures/Bonds first appeared on IC Your Trading Edge | Official Blog.

• Prior was 209K (revised to 210K)
• Continuing claims 1786K vs 1780K expected
• Prior was 1782K (revised to 1771K)

The data has been pointing to a resilient and even strengthening US labour market. Many other US jobs reports have been telling the same thing, which prompted the Fed to switch their focus from the employment mandate to the inflation mandate.

For background, the weekly US jobless claims reports are released by the United States Department of Labor every Thursday morning and are one of the fastest indicators of labor market conditions in the United States. The report includes two key measures: Initial Claims and Continuing Claims. Initial Claims track the number of people filing for unemployment benefits for the first time during the previous week. In simple terms, it measures how many workers were newly laid off and applied for assistance. When initial claims stay low, it usually signals that employers are keeping workers and the job market remains healthy. Rising claims can be an early warning sign that layoffs are increasing and economic growth may be slowing.

Continuing Claims measure the number of people who remain on unemployment benefits after their initial filing. This helps show whether unemployed workers are finding new jobs quickly or struggling to get rehired. If continuing claims rise, it often suggests hiring conditions are becoming more difficult and people are remaining unemployed longer. If they decline, it typically points to improving job opportunities and stronger labor demand. Together, the two reports provide investors, economists, businesses, and the Federal Reserve with an important real-time look at the strength of the US labor market and broader economy.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

• Prior month YoY Core PCE 3.2%, headline 3.5%
• Core PCE YoY 3.3% vs 3.3 est.
• Core PCE MoM 0.2% vs 0.3% est
• Headline PCE YoY 3.8% vs 3.8% est
• Headline PCE MoM 0.4% vs 0.5% est.
• PCE Ex Food, energy and housing for April 0.2% vs 0.3% last month
• PCE services. Ex Energy and housing for April 0.1% vs 0.3% last month

The Personal income and Personal consumption data for April

• Personal Income MoM for April 0.0% vs 0.4% estimate. Prior 0.6% revised to 0.5%
• Personal consumption for April 0.1% vs 0.3% last month (revised from 0.2%.

The PCE data came in a little bit lower than expected on a month-to-month.. The year on year data came in as expected. US yields have moved lower with the 10 year up 0.6 basis points or 4.486%. The two year yield is up 1.4 basis points at 4.047%..

US stocks are still lower but off their lowest levels with the S&P down -1.36 points. He down thus far is -65 points, and the NASDAQ index down -27 points implied by the futures.

What is the PCE and why is it so important?

The U.S. PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures) Price Index is one of the Federal Reserve’s preferred measures of inflation because it tracks how much consumers are paying for goods and services across the economy and adjusts for changes in consumer behavior. The report is released monthly by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and includes both headline inflation and the closely watched “core” measure, which excludes food and energy prices because they tend to be more volatile.

The PCE report measures price changes across a broad range of categories including housing, healthcare, transportation, food, energy, and services. Unlike CPI, the PCE index allows for substitutions when consumers shift spending patterns — for example, buying cheaper alternatives when prices rise — making it generally viewed as a more flexible and comprehensive inflation gauge. The Fed’s long-term inflation target of 2% is based on the Core PCE Price Index, making the report especially important for interest rate expectations, bond yields, the U.S. dollar, and stock markets.

In addition to inflation data, the report also includes:

• Personal income
• Consumer spending
• Savings rate

As a result, markets use the report not only to monitor inflation pressures, but also to gauge the strength of the U.S. consumer and the broader economy.

In addition to the above the US 2nd revision to GDP was also released in the US.

• Prior estimate 2.0%. Q4 0.7%
• GDP 1Q +1.6% versus 2.0% expected
• Sales Preliminary 1.5% vs 1.7% estimate. Prior estimate 1.6%
• GDP consumer spending preliminary 1.4% versus 1.6% prior
• Deflatior 3.5% versus 3.6% preliminary
• Core PCE Q1 4.5% versus 4.5% preliminary
• PCE Q1 ex Food, energy and housing 4.7% versus 4.6% preliminary. Prior quarter to 20%
• PCE Q1 Services. Ex Energy and Housing 4.6% versus 4.4% preliminary. Prior quarter 3.6%

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

• Prior was +0.8% (revised to +1.3%)
• Durable goods orders ex-transport +1.1% vs +0.5% expected
• Prior ex-transport +0.9% (revised to +1.1%)
• Durable goods ex-defense +8.1% vs -0.3% prior
• Non-defense capital goods ex-air -1.1% vs +0.4% expected
• Prior +3.4% (+3.9%)

New orders for manufactured durable goods in April, up two consecutive months, increased $25.5 billion or 7.9 percent to $346.0 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau announced today. This followed a 1.3 percent March increase. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 1.1 percent. Excluding defense, new orders increased 8.1 percent. Transportation equipment, also up two consecutive months, led the increase, $23.1 billion or 21.5 percent to $130.9 billion.

For background, the Advance Report on Durable Goods Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories, and Orders, published monthly by the U.S. Census Bureau, is one of the most closely watched gauges of U.S. manufacturing activity and business investment. Released about 18 working days after each reference month at 8:30 a.m. ET, it covers new orders, shipments, unfilled orders, and inventories of products meant to last three or more years, from aircraft, vehicles, and machinery to computers and appliances.

A more comprehensive Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories, and Orders (M3) release follows roughly a week later. Headline durable goods orders are notoriously volatile, swinging on lumpy aircraft and defense bookings, so analysts focus on two cleaner cuts: new orders excluding transportation, which strips out Boeing-driven swings, and nondefense capital goods orders excluding aircraft, the so-called “core capex” series, which is treated as a real-time proxy for business investment intentions and feeds into GDP estimates.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

• Economic confidence 93.5 vs 92.8 expected
• Prior 93.0; revised to 93.2

The indicator continues to score below its long-term average of 100, as headwinds from the Middle East conflict continue to linger. Looking at the details, industrial confidence (-8.0) dipped further on the month as the bounce was mostly helped by a minor rebound in services confidence (2.2) this time around. The latter comes after a rather steep decline in April, one that was also mirrored in consumer confidence.

The graph below reflects the breakdown:

Besides that, retail trade confidence and construction confidence also worsened on the month. And that continues to reflect the pain that is being exerted from higher prices and supply chain issues as a result of the Middle East conflict.

The only other bit of good news is that the employment indicator showed a minor pick up (+2.1) but again also continues to hold well below its long-term average. The improvement was largely driven by enhanced employment plans reported by managers in
the services and retail trade sectors, which were only marginally offset by a slight decline reported in
construction.

Meanwhile, selling price expectations cooled slightly (down to 27.4 from 30.2 previously) but remain well above levels seen in the past two years. That as inflation risks continue to become more embedded into the economy and pose a threat to the overall outlook. The graph for that:

This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

The post Ex-Dividend 29/05/2026 first appeared on IC Your Trading Edge | Official Blog.

IC Markets Global – Europe Fundamental Forecast | 28 May 2026

What happened in the Asia session?

Asian markets turned hesitant during today’s session as fresh U.S. strikes in Iran and President Trump’s dismissal of an Iranian peace deal report undermined optimism for an imminent Middle East resolution, causing Brent crude to surge 2.3% to $96.50/barrel while MSCI’s Asia-Pacific index dipped 0.1-0.2% and snapped its five-day rally. The geopolitical tension kept the Strait of Hormuz largely shut, disrupting oil/gas flows and pushing inflation expectations higher.

What does it mean for the Europe & US sessions?

Today’s trading sessions pivot on a concentrated U.S. data dump, including Core PCE inflation, durable goods, personal spending, and income that together paint a clear picture of consumer strength and price pressures, making the dollar the day’s central focus. With global growth expected to ease to 3.1% in 2026 and inflation ticking up due to geopolitical shocks, traders should brace for heightened volatility across currencies, equities, and commodities as these prints could significantly reprice Fed policy expectations.
​
The Dollar Index (DXY)

Key news events today

Core PCE Price Index m/m (12:30 pm GMT)

Prelim GDP q/q (12:30 pm GMT)

Prelim GDP Price Index q/q (12:30 pm GMT)

Unemployment Claims (12:30 pm GMT)

New Home Sales (2:00 pm GMT)

What can we expect from DXY today?

The dollar edged higher against major currencies, rebounding from recent volatility as U.S. Treasury yields rose and consumer confidence improved, though the currency remains down roughly 9% for 2025 and faces headwinds from growing U.S. fiscal deficits and expectations of rate cuts. Market participants are closely watching upcoming inflation data, while analysts from Standard Chartered warn that President Trump’s policies could trigger a “major” dollar drop in 2026 if they increase debt without boosting economic growth.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is widely expected to hold the federal funds rate target range steady at 3.50%–3.75% at its April 28–29, 2026, meeting, as oil prices remain elevated around $108 per barrel for Brent crude amid ongoing US-Israel tensions with Iran, alongside surging inflation from energy shocks, further delaying any 2026 rate cuts potentially beyond September.
• The Committee continues to pursue maximum employment and 2% inflation goals, with the labor market showing mixed signals as nonfarm payrolls rose by 178,000 in March 2026—beating lowered expectations but driven partly by strike reversals—and the unemployment rate edged down to 4.3% from 4.4% in February.
• Officials face heightened risks from geopolitical tensions, soaring oil prices, and accelerating inflation, with CPI jumping to 3.3% year-over-year in March 2026 from 2.4% in February due to a 10.9% monthly energy surge, headline PCE pressured higher, and core PCE estimates around 3.1% or more.
• Economic activity continues to cool after robust Q4 2025 growth near 5%, with the Atlanta Fed GDPNow estimating Q1 2026 growth at 1.3% amid softer consumer spending, strike impacts, and labor data despite some resilience.
• March 2026’s Summary of Economic Projections forecasts 2026 unemployment at a median around 4.4%, GDP growth revised higher, and core PCE up to 2.7%, with the dot plot still signaling one cut in 2026 to a median 3.25%–3.50% funds rate amid softer labor but inflation upticks.
• The Committee maintains its data-dependent stance amid a mixed labor market, inflation well above target from oil shocks, and geopolitical risks, likely holding rates at 3.50%-3.75% with persistent divisions and hawkish tones on cuts.
• The FOMC continues its adjusted quantitative tightening, with Treasury rolloff caps at $5 billion per month and agency MBS at $35 billion per month to manage reserves amid post-2025 balance sheet adjustments.
• The FOMC continues its adjusted quantitative tightening, with Treasury rolloff caps at $5 billion per month and agency MBS at $35 billion per month to ensure ample reserves post-2025 program adjustments.
• The next meeting is scheduled for 16 to 17  June 2026.

Next 24 Hours Bias
Weak Bullish

Gold (XAU)

Key news events today

Core PCE Price Index m/m (12:30 pm GMT)

Prelim GDP q/q (12:30 pm GMT)

Prelim GDP Price Index q/q (12:30 pm GMT)

Unemployment Claims (12:30 pm GMT)

New Home Sales (2:00 pm GMT)

What can we expect from Gold today?

Gold prices are currently consolidating in May 2026, with expectations for the XAU/USD pair to continue consolidating on May 28, 2026. The metal has had an extraordinary year, surging 41% from $3,335 to $4,732 per troy ounce between May 2025 and May 2026. In May 2026 specifically, gold has been trading in a range between $4,380 and $5,100 per ounce.

Next 24 Hours Bias   
Medium Bearish

The Euro (EUR)

Key news events today

ECB President Lagarde Speaks (6:10 am GMT)

What can we expect from EUR today?

The euro is currently trading at 1.1620 against the dollar with a slight daily dip, but maintains recent strength fueled by geopolitical optimism around an Iran peace deal and rising European equity markets. While inflation in the euro area has ticked up to 2.6%, the currency benefits from increased euro-denominated debt issuance and capital outflows from the dollar, positioning it as a favorable alternative amid global trade tensions and fears of U.S. dollar weakness under President Trump’s policies.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Governing Council of the ECB is expected to keep the three key interest rates unchanged at its 28–29 May 2026 meeting, with the main refinancing rate near 2.15%, the marginal lending facility at 2.40%, and the deposit facility at 2.00%.
• Headline HICP inflation is likely to remain in the 2.0–2.3% range in the early months of 2026, with the March 2026 ECB staff baseline projecting an average of 2.6% for 2026, 2.0% for 2027, and 2.1% for 2028.
• The updated Eurosystem staff projections for 2026 paint a picture of persistent inflation overshoot, with headline inflation averages of around 2.6% in 2026, 2.0% in 2027, and 2.1% in 2028, compared with about 1.9–2.1% earlier outlooks.
• Real GDP growth is projected at about 0.9% in 2026, 1.3% in 2027, and 1.4% in 2028, implying around 0.2–0.3% quarter‑on‑quarter expansion in Q2 2026, consistent with the resilience observed at the end of 2025.
• The euro area unemployment rate is expected to stay near 6.4%, with strong labour‑force participation and modest wage pressures underpinning consumption resilience.
• The Governing Council continues to stress a meeting‑by‑meeting, data‑dependent approach, focusing on the path of inflation, the functioning of monetary‑policy transmission, and the impact of external shocks (geopolitical, energy, and trade‑policy related).
• Balance‑sheet normalization proceeds smoothly, with the APP and PEPP wind‑downs completed and the remaining stock of longer‑dated assets being allowed to run off without significant liquidity shortages.

​The next meeting is on 10 to 11 June 2026

Next 24 Hours Bias
Weak Bearish

The Swiss Franc (CHF)

Key news events today

SNB Chairman Schlegel Speaks (11:00 am GMT)

What can we expect from CHF today?

The Swiss franc remains strong near multi-month highs, with USD/CHF trading around 0.7861–0.7878 and EUR/CHF at approximately 0.9136. The currency continues to benefit from safe-haven demand amid global geopolitical uncertainty, including U.S. President Donald Trump’s threats to resume attacks on Iran, which has instead lifted the USD but kept the franc resilient.

Central Bank Notes:

• At its monetary policy assessment on 19 March 2026, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) is widely expected to leave the policy rate unchanged at 0%, continuing the extended pause since September 2025, as the Governing Board considers current settings adequate to keep inflation near the target without resorting to negative rates.
• Inflation data since December indicate persistent weakness, with headline CPI hovering around 0% year-on-year through early 2026 and core measures subdued at roughly 0.4%, underscoring limited price pressures and lingering, though contained, deflation risks.
• The SNB’s updated conditional inflation forecast shows minimal change from December, with averages of about 0.2% in 2025 (now complete), 0.3% in 2026, and 0.6% in 2027 under a steady 0% policy rate. However, recent flat CPI readings may slightly lower near-term expectations, preserving scope for further easing if needed.
• Global conditions remain challenging, marked by U.S. tariff escalations under President Trump, subdued external demand, and uncertainties in major export markets such as Europe and the U.S., prompting the SNB to exercise caution despite resilient Swiss domestic activity.
• Sentiment in manufacturing and export sectors stays soft amid franc appreciation and weaker foreign orders, squeezing margins. Yet, overall GDP growth is expected to be around 1.5% in 2026, with unemployment edging up modestly from historic lows.
• The SNB reaffirms its readiness to intervene via rate cuts or FX operations should deflationary pressures intensify, while emphasizing clear communication through detailed meeting minutes and coordination with global partners on currency matters.

The next meeting is on 18 June 2026.

Next 24 Hours Bias
Strong Bullish

The Pound (GBP)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from GBP today?

The British pound slipped slightly today to $1.3418, down 0.07% as investors balanced optimism over a potential US-Iran peace deal against weakened UK economic data and diminished Bank of England rate hike expectations. The pound has declined 0.42% over the past month amid signs of economic weakness, including a contraction in private sector activity, cooling inflation at 2.80%, and rising unemployment to 5.0%.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) met on 29 April 2026, maintaining the Bank Rate at 3.75 per cent, with the decision details published on 30 April 2026 alongside the quarterly Monetary Policy Report. This hold follows the unanimous 9-0 vote at the prior 18 March 2026 meeting, amid persistent energy shocks from the Middle East conflict overriding earlier cut expectations. No specific vote split for April has been detailed yet, but consensus previews indicate a hold.
• Quantitative tightening (QT) continues unchanged at the 2025 pace for gilt holdings reductions, supporting balance-sheet normalization while monitoring liquidity and maintaining restrictiveness against ongoing shocks.
• Headline CPI inflation rose to 3.3% in March 2026 from energy and motor fuel surges due to Middle East tensions, expected to stay between 3% and 3.5% through the summer, well above the 2% target. The April Monetary Policy Report outlines scenarios in which inflation peaks above 3.5% by the end of 2026 in the baseline, then eases below 2% in three years, or reaches 6%+ in adverse cases requiring tighter policy.
• UK growth outlook weakens further into Q2-Q3 2026 amid energy-driven cost pressures, rising unemployment risks, and softening confidence, with prior pay growth cooling now vulnerable to business pass-throughs.
• Global risks from the Middle East conflict persist, fueling energy/commodity volatility and sterling/gilt fluctuations; MPC views direct impacts as containable if demand slackens to curb secondary inflation effects.
• Inflation risks remain upward-biased due to energy persistence, potential wage embedding, and shock duration uncertainty, balanced against downside from economic slack and labor market softening.
• The MPC maintains a data-dependent stance, with policy still restrictive; the April Report provides fuller shock analysis, but no easing is signaled, yet members monitor for 2% sustainability, with Governor Bailey emphasizing vigilance.
• The next meeting is on 18 June 2026.

  Next 24 Hours Bias
  Weak Bullish

The Canadian Dollar (CAD)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from CAD today?

The Canadian dollar hit a six-week low, trading at 1.3849 per U.S. dollar as growing concerns over USMCA trade agreement negotiations weighed on the loonie alongside soft domestic inflation data that reached five-year lows. The Bank of Canada’s dovish stance, with expectations firmly set for the benchmark rate to remain at 2.25% at the June 10 meeting, contrasts with the Federal Reserve’s potentially tighter policy amid stronger U.S. labor market data and higher core inflation, creating a widening interest rate differential that favors the greenback.
​
Central Bank Notes:

• The Governing Council held the overnight rate target steady at 2.25% at its 28-29 April 2026 meeting, matching consensus expectations and prolonging the policy pause as inflation trends firmer toward target. The Bank highlighted lingering global headwinds from Middle East tensions and U.S. tariff escalations under Trump, but confirmed the stance continues fostering disinflation amid moderating energy volatility.
• U.S. trade frictions and geopolitical strains persist in dampening sentiment, yet Canadian manufacturing PMI strengthened further in expansion, driven by robust export orders tied to sustained energy demand. Goods exports, anchored by crude oil, maintained strength through March, countering subdued capex as businesses emphasize operational buffers over expansion.
• Economic growth extended into Q2 2026 at roughly 2.1% annualized, sustaining Q1’s momentum via resource shipments, public spending, and industrial recovery. March preliminary figures suggest resilient expansion, tempered slightly by seasonal factors and lingering supply disruptions.
• Services PMI rose deeper into expansion territory, with gains across tech, leisure, and professional services; consumer segments showed firmer footing from wage gains, despite elevated prices curbing non-essentials. The Bank views this breadth as signaling a balanced, sustainable upturn.
• ​National housing resales climbed modestly in March alongside stable prices, supported by steady rates and regional affordability pockets, as inventory accumulation in key markets avoids sharp imbalances. Policymakers expect gradual softening, underpinned by sound lending standards and consistent household dynamics.
• Headline CPI held near 2.0% year-over-year in March 2026 prints, within the target band, with core metrics like CPI-trim and median easing to around 2.5% on easing food, goods, and partial shelter relief. This bolsters confidence in inflation’s durable path to 2%.
• Officials affirmed 2.25% appropriately positions the economy for 2% inflation stability and orderly rebalancing, with cuts off the table absent growth or price setbacks. Focus shifts to Q2 momentum, core trends, and trade/geopolitical developments ahead of June.
• The next meeting is on 10 June 2026.

Next 24 Hours Bias
Weak Bearish

Oil

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from Oil today?

Oil prices plunged as investors reacted optimistically to reports of a draft US-Iran framework that could reopen the strategically vital Strait of Hormuz within weeks. Brent crude fell 5.3% to $94.29/barrel, and WTI dropped 5.5% to $88.68/barrel in volatile Asian trading, reversing earlier gains after US strikes on Iranian targets had pushed prices above $100.

Next 24 Hours Bias
Weak Bearish

The post IC Markets Global – Europe Fundamental Forecast | 28 May 2026 first appeared on IC Your Trading Edge | Official Blog.

In case you missed it, tonight an American official said that American forces struck an Iranian military site near Bandar Abbas and intercepted four one-way attack drones that had been launched toward a US navy vessel and a commercial ship. A fifth drone launcher was hit on the ground before it could fire.

The Iranian side contradicted the US version, with Tehran claiming its navy had merely fired warning shots at a US tanker running without radar trying to cross the Strait of Hormuz, and that the subsequent US strike caused neither casualties nor damage.

The markets went into risk-off after Iran launched ballistic missiles and drones against Kuwait, this was the most serious attack since the ceasefire began. The IRGC said that it targeted a US air base in direct retaliation for the Bandar Abbas strike and warned that any further US military action would trigger a more decisive response. Despite these attacks, the US side continues to say that the ceasefire remains intact.

This is not the first time. Iran has been accusing the US of violating the ceasefire after targeted strikes in the past few days. On Monday, the US Central Command (Centcom) said Iranian missile sites and boats attempting to place mines were targeted in southern Iran. The tensions remain high and the negotiations look like going nowhere with the US and Iran maintaining their positions and not conceding anything.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

DXY (U.S. Dollar Index):

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

The price has already bounced off the pivot and may continue its bullish move toward the 1st resistance

Pivot: 98.98

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 98.53

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where the price could again stabilize.

1st resistance: 99.51
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement

EUR/USD:

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price has already reacted off the pivot and may continue its bearish move toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 1.1656

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance that aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 1.1590

Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi-swing low support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 1.1700

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

EUR/JPY:

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

Price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before rising again toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 185.18

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 184.39
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential area where the price could again stabilize.

1st resistance: 186.25
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance that aligns with the 78.6% FIbonacci retracement, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

EUR/GBP:

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before continuing its bearish move down toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 0.8673

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance that aligns with the 50% FIbonacci retracement, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 0.8644
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a potential area where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 0.8697
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

GBP/USD:

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before continuing its bearish move down toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 1.3435

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 1.3343
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a potential area where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 1.3511
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns with the 61.8% FIbonacci retracement, indicating a potential level that could halt further upward movement.

GBP/JPY:

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

Price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before rising again toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 213.59

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 212.41
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 215.12
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns with the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential level that could halt further upward movement.

USD/CHF:

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before rising again toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 0.7861

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 0.7826
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 0.7919
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

USD/JPY:

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

Price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before rising again toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 159.16

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 158.69

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing low support, indicating a strong area where buyers might return, and the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 159.80

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns with the 161.8% Fibonacci extension. This level represents the next key area where upward movement could be capped amid increased selling pressure

USD/CAD:

Potential Direction: Bullish                                                                                                                                                           

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

Price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before rising again toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 1.3821

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 1.3775

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a key level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 1.3869

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance that aligns with the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement, making it a possible target for bullish advances and a level where some sellers could return to cap gains

AUD/USD:

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before continuing its bearish move down toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 0.7154

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 0.719

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, this area has provided strong support historically and may attract buying interest for a potential short-term bounce

1st resistance: 0.7180

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

NZD/USD

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

Price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before rising again toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 0.5879

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 0.5834

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing low support, this area has provided strong support historically and may attract buying interest for a potential short-term bounce

1st resistance: 0.5919

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

US30 (DJIA):

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

Price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before rising again toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 50,119.72

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns with the 50% FIbonacci retracement, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 49,703.05

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, suggesting a potential area where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 51,050.28

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

DE40 (DAX):

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price has already bounced off the pivot and may continue its bullish move toward the 1st resistance

Pivot: 25,057.50

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 24,613

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a key level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 25,569.46

Supporting reasons: Identified as a resistance that aligns with the 127.2% Fibonacci extension, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

US500 (S&P 500):

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price has already bounced off the pivot and may continue its bullish move toward the 1st resistance

Pivot: 7,499.39

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 7,449.95

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 7,569.28

Supporting reasons: Identified as a resistance that aligns with the 127.2% Fibonacci extension, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

BTC/USD (Bitcoin):

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before continuing its bearish move down toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 76,432.26

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance,, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 73,253.96

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing low support that aligns with the 127.2% Fibonacci projection, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 77,895.66

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

ETH/USD (Ethereum):

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before continuing its bearish move down toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 2,086.84

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 1.969.00

Supporting reasons: Identified as a support that aligns with the 127.2% Fibonacci extension, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 2,146.67
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

WTI/USD (Oil):

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price has already bounced off the pivot and may continue its bullish move toward the 1st resistance

Pivot: 92.01

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing low support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 84.66
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high support, indicating a key level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 98.70
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

XAU/USD (GOLD):

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before continuing its bearish move down toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 4,474.35

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 4,375.96
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing low support that aligns with the 161.8% Fibonacci extension, indicating a key level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 4,549.45
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

The accuracy, completeness and timeliness of the information contained on this site cannot be guaranteed. IC Markets Global does not warranty, guarantee or make any representations, or assume any liability regarding financial results based on the use of the information in the site.

News, views, opinions, recommendations and other information obtained from sources outside of www.icmarkets.com, used in this site are believed to be reliable, but we cannot guarantee their accuracy or completeness. All such information is subject to change at any time without notice. IC Markets Global assumes no responsibility for the content of any linked site.

The fact that such links may exist does not indicate approval or endorsement of any material contained on any linked site. IC Markets Global is not liable for any harm caused by the transmission, through accessing the services or information on this site, of a computer virus, or other computer code or programming device that might be used to access, delete, damage, disable, disrupt or otherwise impede in any manner, the operation of the site or of any user’s software, hardware, data or property.

The post Thursday 28th May 2026: Technical Outlook and Review first appeared on IC Your Trading Edge | Official Blog.

Global Markets:

•  Asian Stock Markets : Nikkei down 1.55%, Shanghai Composite down 1.14% Hang Seng down 2.45% ASX down 1.71%
• Commodities : Gold at $4,401.37 (-1.78%) Silver at $72.385 (-3.34%), Brent Oil at $95.74 (3.76%), WTI Oil at $92.26 (4.06%)
• Rates : US 10-year yield at 4.530, UK 10-year yield at 4.8610, Germany 10-year yield at 2.9843

News & Data:

• (USD) CB Consumer Confidence  93.1  to 91.9   expected

Markets Update:

Asia-Pacific markets opened lower on Thursday as investors weighed mixed signals surrounding ongoing negotiations between the U.S. and Iran, despite a fragile ceasefire remaining in place.

U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said discussions with Tehran had shown some progress and stressed that Washington would give diplomacy “every chance to succeed.” However, President Donald Trump reiterated that the U.S. would not allow Iran to control the strategically important Strait of Hormuz under any agreement.

Conflicting reports over the status of a possible understanding between the two nations added to market uncertainty. Reuters reported, citing Iranian state media, that Tehran had agreed to restore commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz to prewar levels within a month of reaching a deal with Washington. The White House later dismissed the report, calling claims of a memorandum of understanding “a complete fabrication.”

Oil prices moved higher amid the uncertainty. West Texas Intermediate crude futures for July gained 1.66% to $90.15 per barrel, while Brent crude futures rose 2.03% to $96.20.

Regional equities were mostly lower. South Korea’s Kospi fell 0.36%, while the Kosdaq dropped 2.61%. Japan’s Nikkei 225 was slightly lower, and the Topix declined 0.23%. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 slipped 0.79%, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng and China’s CSI 300 also declined.

Upcoming Events:

• 12:15 PM GMT – USD ADP Weekly Employment Change

The post Thursday 28th May 2026: Asia Markets Slip as Mixed Iran-U.S. Signals Weigh on Investor Sentiment first appeared on IC Your Trading Edge | Official Blog.

Stocks Edge Higher with Peace Deal in Doubt – Dow up 0.36%

US equity markets closed at fresh record highs again overnight, although gains were relatively modest as investors continued to weigh geopolitical uncertainty surrounding the Middle East. The Dow Jones rose 0.36% to finish at 50,644, while the S&P 500 edged up 0.02% to 7,520, and the Nasdaq added 0.07% to close at 26,674.

Market sentiment remained cautious after President Trump stated he was not satisfied with the progress of negotiations with Iran, creating concerns that hopes for a near-term peace agreement in the Gulf may be premature. Despite this, equity markets continued to show resilience, with investors still reluctant to significantly reduce risk exposure.

Currency and bond markets were comparatively subdued as traders waited for more concrete developments from the region and positioned ahead of today’s major US economic data releases. The US Dollar Index firmed slightly by 0.05% to 99.22, while Treasury markets were little changed, with the US 2-year yield rising marginally to 4.033% and the 10-year yield easing slightly to 4.483%.

Commodity markets saw significantly larger moves, with oil prices dropping sharply as geopolitical risk premium was pared back. Brent crude fell 4.60% to US$95.00 per barrel, while WTI crude dropped 4.65% to US$89.52. Gold also came under pressure after breaking through key technical support levels, declining 1.13% to US$4,454.95 per ounce.

Dollar in Focus for FX Today

FX traders are expecting plenty of volatility in the market today, especially in the latter sessions when we are likely to hear fresh updates on the war between the US and Iran, and then key inflation numbers in the States. News of more missile strikes from the US against Iran has added further doubt to the chances of a peace deal being signed anytime soon, and the dollar is likely to gain ground again if hostilities look set to resume. Later in the day, the release of key inflation data should also see moves in the greenback. The Core PCE remains the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation, and any stronger-than-expected result is likely to reinforce expectations that US interest rates will remain elevated for longer, further reducing market hopes for rate cuts later this year and seeing the dollar take fresh steps higher against the majors. If the two factors combine, then expect to see the majors break into fresh ranges during the New York session today.

Inflation Data and Geopolitics to Dictate Markets Today

Once again, geopolitics is likely to dominate market sentiment today, with anything new on the Middle East likely to spark fresh volatility. However, later in the day, a big data drop in the US will bring investors’ attention back to fundamentals, with the Core PCE Price Index (exp +0.3% m/m, +3.3% y/y) the big focus. Preliminary GDP (exp +2.0% q/q) and Weekly Unemployment Claims Data (exp 211) are also scheduled; however, expect the inflation data to have the greater impact. Earlier in the day, markets will also monitor New Zealand’s Annual Budget Release during Asian trade, while comments from ECB President Christine Lagarde and SNB Chairman Martin Schlegel may provide further direction for European currencies ahead of the key US data releases tonight.

Explore all upcoming market events in the Economic Calendar.

The post General Market Analysis – 28/05/26 first appeared on IC Your Trading Edge | Official Blog.