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Key takeaways for Apple investors

• A new reason to upgrade: The iPhone Duo could appeal to customers who have held onto older phones.
• Revenue share is not extra growth: A foldable accounting for 10% of iPhone revenue would include purchases that replace other iPhone sales.
• AI needs to earn its place: Useful everyday features could support demand, but adoption and availability matter more than demonstrations.
• Watch profitability: Higher selling prices do not automatically mean higher profit margins.

Why could the foldable iPhone matter for Apple stock?

Apple unveiled the iPhone Duo on September 9, starting at $1,999 in the U.S., with availability from October 23. Its larger inner display supports using apps side by side. Apple’s…

The slightly stronger-than-expected U.S. PPI (5.4% vs 5.3% estimate although the core came is as expected at 4.6% but above 4.3% last month) report has pushed Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar higher. Inflation remains well above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, the hotter data reminds traders that the Fed may need to keep monetary policy restrictive for longer. 

The U.S. Dollar Index is up 0.31%, while the 10-year Treasury yield has risen 7.4 basis points to 4.911%. That is its highest level since late October 2023.

Those moves are creating a headwind for gold.

The price of gold has moved sharply lower and, in the process, broken below an important cluster of technical support near $4,356. That area includes:

• The 100-day moving average

• An…

• Resilience likely to persist in Q3
• Manufacturing is solid and consumer confidence rebounded
• Labour market robust
• Growth in employment continues to slow
• Near term outlook has improved
• Growth will be bolstered by business and housing investment
• Exports held back by competitiveness challenges and trade policies
• Refining margins made strong contribution to inflation
• Wages don't show a response to higher energy so far

The US dollar is sizzling today as the market senses that the Fed will have no other choice but to hike rates.

Oil is up for the eigth consecutive day and the gains are accelerating. WTI is up $4.25 on the day to $100.42, breaking the key psychological barrier as it continues to explode higher.

Yesterday, Trump said the war wouldn't end until after the midterms and the market is taking that as a reason to load up. The eagerly anticipated August CPI report tomorrow was seen as pivotal for the Fed but at these prices, a very hot September CPI is a foregone conclusion as gasoline and diesel prices spike.

With the rise in oil, bonds are crumbling. US 10-year yields are up 6.6 bps to 4.90%, which is the highest since 2023. 

Yesterday, Trump…

Oil prices are surging as traders price in a prolonged US-Iran conflict, with the prospect of a resolution before November fading. Trump said yesterday that he expects the war with Iran to end immediately after the US midterm elections on November, effectively acknowledging that the conflict is likely to continue through at least the election period.

That is forcing markets to reassess earlier expectations that the conflict could wind down sooner. Reports also suggest senior Trump advisers are preparing for the possibility that the war could last well beyond November, highlighting the lack of a clear exit strategy.

Brent crude has pushed firmly above the $100 per barrel threshold, reaching around $105, while WTI is trading around $100.…

The latest weekly jobless claims data remain consistent with a labor market where layoffs are limited and those who lose their jobs are taking slightly longer to find new employment.

• Initial jobless claims: 206K versus 205K expected
• Prior week: 207K, revised from 206K
• Four-week average: 206K versus 207.5K previously
• Continuing claims: 1.774M versus 1.780M expected
• Prior week: 1.775M, revised from 1.779M
• Four-week continuing-claims average: 1.779M versus 1.78075M previously
• Insured unemployment rate: 1.2%, unchanged

The initial claims number was nearly in line with expectations, while continuing claims came in modestly below the consensus estimate. Overall, the report suggests that layoffs remain contained and there was no meaningful…

• Prior was 4.7% (revised to 4.8%)
• PPI final demand m/m +0.4% vs +0.4% expected
• Prior m/m 0.0% (revised to +0.1%)
• Ex-food and energy 4.6% y/y  vs 4.6% expected 
• Prior ex-food and energy 4.2% y/y (revised to 4.3%)
• Ex-food and energy 0.2% m/m  vs 0.3% expected 
• Ex-food, energy and trade +4.7% m/m vs +4.7% prior
• Ex-food energy and trade +0.3% m/m vs +0.4% prior

Given the revisisions, this is a very small upside surprise but given the importance the Fed has placed on inflation reports this week, it's a meaningful reading and we're seeing dollar strength as a result. Fed funds futures have ticked up to a 64% chance of a hike this month, though part of that is certainly an 8th day of oil gains.

• Raises three main rates by 25 bps
• Compared to June, baseline inflation projection for 2026 is unchanged but it has been raised for 2027 and 2028
• ECB says stands ready to adjust all instruments within its mandate to ensure inflation stabilizes at 2% in the medium term
• ECB is not pre-committed to any path

The euro sold off ahead of the announcement in a broad USD rally but it's bounced slightly to 1.1618. This is the second rate hike this year but was widely signaled ahead of time. 

Changes to economic forecasts:

The ECB raised its growth forecasts for 2026 and 2027, while lifting both headline and core inflation projections for the final two years of its forecast horizon.

GDP growth is now forecast at 0.9% in 2026, up from 0.8%, and 1.4% in 2027,…

Oil prices and bond yields continue to push higher in European trading today, offering a timely reminder to broader markets that inflation risks remain very much in focus.

Brent crude is up over 1% to above $102, while WTI crude now up 1.5% to $97.50 as Middle East tensions continue to keep supply disruptions in focus.

At the same time, US Treasury yields are climbing, with 10-year yields up 3 bps to 4.867% - its highest level since 2023. The US Treasury may have announced a $6 billion bond buyback overnight, but that is not enough to keep the bond vigilantes at bay. The 5% mark is firmly in traders' crosshair, with the US CPI report adding another potential catalyst.

The pain point for markets now is that as oil prices continue to track…

Crude Oil Trade Idea: A Contrarian CL Short Around the $100 Liquidity Zone

Some bulls in oil (the mainstream) might get angry with me here. Other (bearish) contrarians are gonna love it. Let's get this party going!

Crude oil near $100 is not usually where traders go looking for comfortable short trades. That is exactly what makes this setup interesting.

This potentially contrarian NYMEX Light Crude Oil Futures (CL) trade idea is not simply trying to call the top of the oil rally. Instead, I am watching a cluster of potential reaction and liquidity levels surrounding the psychologically important $100 per barrel area.

Importantly, crude remains below the proposed entries at the time of this setup. The plan is therefore to wait for price to…

The rise in long-term bond yields is being blamed on a growing list of factors, but there is a much simpler explanation sitting in plain sight: oil prices are the main driver of the rise in long-term yields, and the Iran war is the reason oil is rising.

Brent crude has pushed back above $100 a barrel as the US-Iran conflict escalated, while the 10-year Treasury yield has climbed above 4.8%, its highest level since 2023.

Oil goes up, yields follow

The key transmission mechanism is inflation. An oil price shock does not stay confined to the energy market. Higher crude prices feed into gasoline, diesel, transportation and production costs. If the shock persists, investors begin to worry that inflation will remain higher for longer, especially…

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW

USD:

The US dollar has been losing ground ever since the NFP report got released. This happened mainly because the market focus was not on the NFP report, but on the CPI. The market pays attention to the data that the central bank is focused on, and the Federal Reserve is currently focused on inflation.

Today, we get the US PPI report and although it might be market-moving, the US CPI due tomorrow remains the key event ahead of the FOMC decision next week.

A soft or in-line CPI will likely weaken the dollar as Fed’s Waller mentioned that he won’t consider a rate hike unless we get a hot CPI. Conversely, an upside surprise in core…