Market News

• CPI m/m -0.1% vs +0.2% expected
• June trimmed mean 3.6% y/y vs 3.7% expected
• Australian Q2 CPI % y/y vs +4.1% expected
• Prior was 4.1%
• CPI q/q vs +0.7% expected (prior was +1.4%)
• RBA trimmed mean 3.6% y/y vs 3.7% expected
• RBA weighted mean 3.6% y/y vs 3.7% expected

These are slightly cool numbers right across the board and will unwind the modest expectations for a near term rate hike. This is an opportunity for the RBA to sit back and watch for what's next.

A huge day on the track just wrapped up at the Commonwealth Games and there were Oceanic records set by and Aussie and New Zealander.

Lachland Kennedy ran 9.85 for the silver and set the record for a white guy despite a heavy rain. He was edged out by Cameroon's Robert Eseme. On the women's side, Zoe Hobbs also set an area record and she got the gold for New Zealand.

That's a great start to the day down under but what comes for area markets will depend on today's Australian CPI report, which is a pivotal one. Yesterday, RBA Governor Bullock said she wasn't sure how the upcoming meeting would go but a big swing factor will certainly be today's inflation report. The consensus for the June data is a steady 4.0% y/y with the trimmed mean rising…

• US stock pattern continues. Dow up. Nasdaq down
• Crude oil futures settle at $79.26
• Netanyahu: Confirmed to Trump that additional strikes on rehabilitated Iranian nuclear facilities are unavoidable
• Trump-Netanyahu meeting reinforces Iran focus
• US treasury sells $44B of 7-year notes at a high yield of 4.473%
• Middle East mediators see U.S.–Iran deal within reach
• Richmond Fed manufacturing index for July 5 vs 10 estimate
• Conference Board Consumer Confidence for July 90.8 versus 92.3 estimate
• CaseShiller seasonally adjusted YoY housing prices change 1.6% versus 1.3% estimate
• Trump on Fox News: Iran understand it will never have a nuclear weapon
• US advance goods trade balance for June -$101.5 billion versus -$100 billion estimate
• US wholesale…

Results of the private survey:

• Crude +3.3m vs -1.4m exp
• Gasoline +0.9m vs -1.2m exp
• Distillates +0.4m vs +0.6m exp

This is the first bearish surprise we've had on inventories in awhile and it might help to cool oil prices further and narrow gasoline cracks. The official data is due out tomorrow.

Crude has taken an absolute beating this week as the shooting stopped in Hormuz and was down $3.54 to $79.07 today.

I don't think we're worried enough about rogue AI agents. The story from OpenAI about the first breakout is crazy. The machine found a way onto the internet and hacked deeply into Hugging Face. The company wasn't exactly forthright immediately either.

Now, Reuters is reporting that another rogue agent at OpenAI compomised a customer account at the New York AI firm Modal Labs and abused it. What's shocking is that this disclosure didn't come directly from OpenAI but is from a leak instead.

This is shocking misbehaviour from a company that's openly trying to get Chinese open source models banned. In the orginal hack, it was a days-long hacking spree. This time, the disclosure is seemingly coming from the Modal Labs side.

"We're aware a Modal…

Oil prices are quickly higher after a report from Axios that says Iran launched ballistic missiles towards a US base in Jordan.

One report says At at 3 ballistic missiles were launched and the Axios report cites a "US official". It also notes that the missiles were intercepted however there is an image circulating that says there was a direct hit on the Muwaffaq Salti Air Base in Jordan.

Notably, it could be an old image as that base has been confirmed to have been hit earlier in the month.

There is some video doing the rounds that appears to show three interceptions. 

WTI is up nearly 4% in a hurry.

Update: The US military is now out with a statement saying that at 5:45 pm ET, the IRGC fired 'multiple' ballistic missiles but that all of them…

The day is starting decidedly quieter in South Korea today with the Kospi up 1.3%. It comes after a 10.8% decline yesterday.

For now this looks like a dead-cat bounce.

Eyes are on SK Hynix after reporting earnings that didn't look great on the surface.

For the bigger picture,SK Hynix says in the call that in the call that major customers continue to request more memory and that tight memory supply will continue for a considerable period of time. Does that mean it's time to buy Micron at 5.5x forward earnings?

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW

USD:

The US dollar opened the week lower yesterday after the US halted its strikes following 13 consecutive days of attacks, while Iran pledged to maintain a ceasefire so long as the US remained on pause.

This has led to some optimism as traders took this latest development as an early sign of a potential de-escalation and triggered a selloff in oil prices.

Despite this positive development, the greenback erased the losses and printed a new weekly high. The support hasn’t come from Treasury yields or economic data, so this suggests that it might have been just hedging activity ahead of tomorrow’s FOMC decision.

The Fed is expected to hold interest rates steady but…

QatarEnergy is reported to have extended force majeure for its European buyers until the end of September at least, further reaffirming that the energy disruption from the Strait of Hormuz is having a prolonged impact. As a reminder, the company is one of the world's largest LNG exporters and while Europe is not their biggest customer base, the impact here is just a hint of what is being felt in Asia surely. Still, there will be some European players heavily impacted by the continuation of the status quo.

For some context, no LNG tankers have made their way out of the Strait of Hormuz since 16 July. And even if there are shadow fleet movements (unlikely for Qatar), the number is likely to be rather minimal.

One of its biggest European…

With all that is happening with US-Iran developments and the big selloff in tech shares, let's not forget that there is still the central bank bonanza this week. And on that note, none is bigger than the FOMC meeting that will come tomorrow.

The Fed policy decision in itself is expected to be rather straightforward. The central bank is widely expected to keep interet rates unchanged, but will there be a more hawkish twist to follow after?

Personally, I feel that the threshold for that is a bit high. That especially with the risks involved in changing their communique, not least with still some way to go before the next meeting in September. Who knows what will happen with US-Iran developments by then.

That being said, some analysts are…

IC – Europe Fundamental Forecast | 28 July 2026

What happened in the Asia session?

Market attention was dominated by Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Governor Michele Bullock’s speech, while traders also continued to react to geopolitical developments and position ahead of this week’s major central bank meetings, including the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan. Bullock reiterated that underlying inflation remains too high and stressed that the RBA is prepared to raise interest rates further if required to return inflation to its 2–3% target.

What does it mean for the Europe & US sessions?

Traders are primarily focused on central bank commentary, U.S. consumer sentiment, and persistent geopolitical risks that continue to influence…