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A December rate increase remains the market’s expected outcome. Investing.com’s rate  monitor put the probability of a quarter-percentage-point increase at about 80% on 4  November. Another hold would depart from that expectation, making the evidence that  might persuade the Federal Reserve to wait particularly relevant for traders. 

The Fed raised its benchmark rate to 3.75–4% in September and left it unchanged on 28  October. Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan supported the hold, then argued two days later  for at least two more quarter-point increases. Her position illustrates how officials can  favour further tightening while allowing more time between…

Nasdaq 100 futures | Technical analysis | November 5, 2026

The overnight recovery has survived renewed selling, with buyers defending higher prices and pushing Nasdaq futures back toward resistance. The next challenge is turning that rebound into a sustained move above 28,476.

Nasdaq 100 futures have staged an impressive overnight rebound, recovering nearly 280 points from their low of 28,167.75 to reach 28,447. But while the recovery shows encouraging signs beneath the surface, buyers have yet to prove that this is more than a temporary rebound within a broader correction.

The December 2026 Nasdaq 100 futures contract (NQ) was trading around 28,424 as of 05:37 EST (10:37 UTC) on November 5.

The most important question now is whether buyers…

• Bank Rate at 4.00% as widely expected
• Prior was 3.75%
• Vote split 9-0 vs 7-2 expected

details to follow...

Crude oil broke below the lower bound of the channel yesterday and extended the selloff after the US Vice President Vance blamed the war with Iran for the Republicans’ heavy losses in the midterm elections.

The selloff started right when he published the post on X, as it reinforced market expectations that the Trump administration could seek an off-ramp from the war rather than escalate military operations.

Keep in mind, though, that Trump can legally continue military operations against Iran even if Democrats control both the House and the Senate. So, it’s not that simple to force Trump out of the war now that he has nothing to lose. But for now, this seems the scenario the…

Solana rebounded strongly yesterday after the Democrats won both the House and the Senate in the US midterm elections.

It looks like the market believes the Republicans’ loss will force Trump to seek an exit from the Iran war, eventually supporting economic growth and risk appetite as energy prices sink.

That’s also what we saw in the oil market yesterday, as prices dropped quickly after US Vice President Vance blamed the war with Iran for the loss in the midterm elections. His post on X reinforced market expectations that the Trump administration could seek an off-ramp from the conflict rather than escalate the war.

Keep in mind, though, that Trump can legally continue military…

Ethereum whipsawed yesterday as the Democrats’ victory of both the House and the Senate initially weighed on the cryptocurrency before staging a strong rebound.

It looks like the market believes the midterm loss will force Trump to seek an exit from the Iran war, eventually supporting economic growth as energy prices fall significantly.

That’s also what we’ve seen in the oil market yesterday as prices dropped quickly after US Vice President Vance blamed the war with Iran for the Republican Party's heavy losses in the midterm elections. His post published on X reinforced market expectations that the Trump administration could seek an off-ramp from the war rather than escalate…

There's a post-election party in Wall Street but it seems that investors can't quite agree on the type of music to play. The Dow is dancing to one tune while the Nasdaq is moving to the beat of another. As for semiconductor stocks? Well, they've apparently decided to sit this one out altogether.

The Dow surged higher by 3.0% yesterday, its strongest showing since April last year, while the Nasdaq posted a respectable advance of 1.4%. But semiconductor stocks clearly had other ideas, tumbling 3.1% even as the broader market cheered.

Curiously, this doesn't seem to be shaping up to be a one-day affair. That divergence is carrying over into today's trading, with Dow futures up 0.5% while Nasdaq futures are down 0.8%. That's quite the contrast…

Gold extended the gains yesterday after breaking above a key trendline that’s been defining the downtrend since September.

The breakout was driven by a selloff in oil prices after the US Vice President Vance blamed the war with Iran for the Republican Party's heavy losses in the midterm elections. His post published on X reinforced market expectations that the Trump administration could seek an off-ramp from the war rather than escalate military operations.

Keep in mind that a Democratic congress is also going to restrict further tax cuts, defence spending and fiscal expansion in general. And this is positive for gold because it’s going to limit the rise in…

European equities are enjoying a solid start to the session with major indices seen opening higher across the board. While regional stocks are holding up well, just be wary that the more cautious mood in US futures suggests that investors aren't quite ready to throw caution to the wind just yet. Here are the opening levels in Europe:

• Eurostoxx +0.6%
• Germany DAX +0.3%
• France CAC 40 +1.2%
• UK FTSE 100 +0.8%
• Spain IBEX +1.3%
• Italy FTSE MIB +0.4%

The positive start comes as European stocks are looking to build on yesterday's rebound, with buyers continuing to find some encouragement after the US midterm elections and the continued rotation out of tech shares.

In that lieu, the mood across the Atlantic is looking rather less optimistic. Dow futures may…

Asia Fundamental Forecast | 05 November 2026 | IC

What happened in the U.S. session?

Wednesday’s U.S. session was dominated by political developments rather than economic data. The Democratic victory in both chambers of Congress encouraged investors to reduce geopolitical risk expectations, particularly surrounding the Iran conflict. This triggered a sharp decline in crude oil prices and weakened the U.S. dollar.

What does it mean for the Asia Session?

Thursday’s Asian session is likely to be influenced by the weaker US dollar, improving global risk appetite, and falling oil prices following the US midterm elections. The Japanese yen will depend on whether BOJ policymakers signal further interest rate increases. Meanwhile, gold could…

●         Asian Stock Markets : Nikkei down 1.46%, Shanghai Composite up 0.10% Hang Seng up 3.01% ASX up 2.32%

●        Commodities : Gold at $4,143.67 (1.73%) Silver at $53.000 (1.39%), Brent Oil at 93.77 (-0.91%), WTI Oil at 86.85 (-1.44%)

●        Rates : US 10-year yield at 4.843, UK 10-year yield at 5.1368, Germany 10-year yield at 3.2866

●        (USD) ISM Services PMI

         54.5 to 54.8  expected

U.S. equity futures moved higher on Wednesday evening following a strong Wall Street rally driven by falling oil prices and greater clarity surrounding the Democrats’ midterm election victories.

Dow Jones Industrial Average futures gained 90 points, or 0.2%. S&P 500…

Europe Fundamental Forecast | 05 November 2026 | IC

What happened in the Asia session?

Asian markets were influenced primarily by the outcome of the U.S. midterm elections, which triggered a broad shift in global market sentiment. The Democratic victory reduced political uncertainty and raised hopes of a possible reduction in U.S.-Iran military tensions, putting significant pressure on the U.S. dollar and crude oil prices. Meanwhile, gold benefited from declining Treasury yields and dollar weakness, while the Australian dollar received additional support from a much stronger-than-expected trade surplus.

What does it mean for the European & US sessions?

Oil markets remain volatile as traders weigh improving global supply against…