Market News

Silver is racing higher today, gaining 4.5% in its largest one-day advance since August 19. Lower US Treasury yields are helping the move, but the technical picture has also turned more bullish after sellers repeatedly failed to keep the price below key support.

The 30-year Treasury yield is down close to 6 basis points and back below 5.00% at 4.944%. The 10-year yield is down 4.6 basis points at 4.681%. Lower yields reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding metals such as silver. A softer US dollar and the pullback in oil are also providing support to the precious-metals complex.

Sellers had their shot below the 50% retracement

Silver has been correcting in an up-and-down fashion since reaching $71.16 at the end of August. During…

WTI crude oil buyers defended the rising 200-hour moving average and nearby trendline support at the day’s low, but the price remains below the 100-hour moving average. In the video above, I outline the bullish and bearish triggers and the next targets that would come into play.

The price of WTI crude oil has moved sharply higher since August 26, rising from around $80.00 to a high of $106.00 reached on Tuesday. Since then, the price has corrected lower and fallen below some key technical levels, including the 100-hour moving average. However, buyers returned near the rising 200-hour moving average today.

The decline reached $99.10, just two cents above the 200-hour moving average at $99.08. The underside of a broken trendline also came…

• Historically supply shocks hit and resolve quickly but they're lingering longer and it takes time to work its way through, that can feed into expectations
• Said he was pleased that Warsh doubled down on Jackson Hole speech
• The number of families that are being stressed by prices has risen on a consistent basis
• If the Fed doesn't create an environment where people think prices are going to flatten then it's a problem
• Inflation expectations are solid until they aren't
• I don't think it's in our interest to look past wages
• This Fed has been patient over much of 2026
• The patience was in part because of the belief the war would end, or that employment would deteriorate
• It wouldn't surprise me if we saw patience at the October Fed meeting

Bostic appeared…

Welcome to the new rate-hike cycle.

The FOMC delivered on the market's expectation for a rate hike yesterday and moved the Fed funds range to 3.75-4.00% from 3.50-3.75%. A hawkish Q&A from Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh left the market thinking there's an even chance of a second hike in October but there are still plenty of doves out there, who think inflation is transitory and will be quickly defeated. Part of the reason for that is that the starting point of this rate hiking cycle is relatively high and that the most rate-sensitive part of the economy -- housing -- is already in a multi-year slump.

Looking out the curve, the market sees three more hikes for a total of four and a terminal top of 4.50%-4.75%.

If you compare that to history, it…

The USDCAD has moved higher following the FOMC rate decision, breaking above a cluster of important technical levels. That has shifted more control to the buyers, but the next step is holding the breakout and working through resistance near the 1.4000 level.

Before the decision, the price was trading between the 200-bar moving average on the four-hour chart at 1.3888 and the 100-day moving average at 1.3939. The post-FOMC move carried the pair above the 100-day moving average, the 38.2% retracement at 1.3931 and the swing area between 1.3948 and 1.3966.

That swing area is now the first key support. Former resistance becomes support after a break, and staying above 1.3948 to 1.3966 would keep the buyers in control.

What buyers need to…

The Nasdaq Composite and Nasdaq 100 both found buyers near important support in yesterday's trading and have bounced higher. That is the good news for the buyers. The next challenge is getting above and staying above the 100-hour and 200-hour moving averages.

The indices are trading between those moving averages in early trading. That leaves the battle in a short-term neutral area. Buyers stopped the decline, but they have not yet taken full control.

Nasdaq 100: Buyers defend the swing area

The Nasdaq 100 fell moved lower yesterday after the FOMC rate decision and further below it's key 100 day MA at 29230, but sellers stalled the decline near the swing area around 28,953.06 to 28,822.67. That area has attracted buyers on a number of tests…

• Prior was -2.3%
• Index at vs 71.2 prior

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

• Still early days on inflation risks from Iran war, so far it's quite subdued
• We have been working on QT plan since before Iran war
• He as asked about four hikes being priced in and said they did not discuss the prospect of hiking four times

Not much to go on so far, typical Bailey.

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Headlines:

• BOE leaves bank rate unchanged at 3.75% in 6-3 vote
• Long-end Treasury yields stay calm as markets digest the Fed
• Was the Fed really that hawkish or the market just overreacted? An objective overview
• Oil prices ease as Saudi Arabia projects to restore half pipeline capacity within days and Trump plans meeting with Gulf leaders
• S&P 500 looks for a technical bounce as 100-day moving average holds after the Fed
• Gold (XAU/USD) analysis: The market overreacts to Fed decision; Middle East and data now in focus
• This XAUUSD gold analysis video shows where the gold trade is after the Fed last night
• Euro area inflation nudges up in August to 3.2% as energy prices jump

Markets:

• Brent crude oil -2.3% to $103.40
• WTI crude oil -1.6% to $100.80
• 10-year…

Bitcoin buyers defended the August 21 low area and the 38.2% retracement at $74,713, but the rebound is now running into the 100-hour and 200-hour moving averages. In the video above, I outline what buyers must do to take more control and the levels that would put sellers back in charge.

Bitcoin moved to a new low going back to August 21, but the sellers could not extend below the 38.2% retracement of the rally from the August low. That retracement comes in at $74,713. Buyers returned and pushed the price back toward $76,800.

That bounce is encouraging for buyers, but there is still work to do. The price remains around the 100-hour moving average at $76,840 and below the 200-hour moving average at $77,250. Getting above both moving…

Good morning and welcome to the Morning Kickstart post and video for the North American session.

The U.S. dollar is mixed. It is trading lower against the EUR, JPY, AUD and NZD, but higher against the GBP, CHF and CAD. The New Zealand dollar is the strongest of the major currencies, while the British pound is the weakest following the Bank of England’s decision to leave interest rates unchanged.

It is the day after the Federal Reserve raised rates by 25 basis points for the first time since July 2023. Stocks are rebounding, Treasury yields are moving lower and crude oil is retreating toward the key $100 level.

In the morning video above, I take a look at the three major currency pairs—EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD—from a technical perspective.…

• Prior was +47.4

Details:

• New orders 29.2 versus 30.1 last month
• Shipments 27.7 versus 27.7 last month
• Unfilled orders 20.4 versus 14.4 last month
• Delivery times 26.5 versus 3.7 last month
• Inventories -12.5 versus -3.7 last month
• Prices paid 48.6 versus 40.9 last month
• Prices received 31.3 versus 17.7 last month
• Number of employees 11.8 versus 27.9 last month
• Average employee workweek 18.0 versus 26.5 last month

Six-months from now indicators:

• 6 month index 52.9 vs 73.6 last month
• Capex index 6-month forward 37.1 versus 48.2 last month
• New orders 62.3 versus 66.0 last month
• Shipments 61.1 versus 63.5 last month
• Unfilled orders 16.8 versus 8.5 last month
• Delivery times 18.6 versus 0.0 last month
• Inventories 11.6 versus 17.4 last month
• Prices paid 71.3…