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• "Two or three days.. we have a very good chance of doing it"
• US will issue a report on Hormuz incident later today
• Pilots involved the incident are fine
• We will not allow Iran to acquire a nuclear weapon
• Iran's economy is struggling, they will have to come to an agreement

As things stand, the standoff continues to drag on for longer. As a reminder, this deal has been "very close" and "imminent" for well over two weeks now. Yet, here we are.

Earlier in the day, he said that they were going to declare "total victory over the next two weeks". I wouldn't want to hold my breath on that. It's as good a time as any to be reminded that this conflict/war was supposed to be wrapped up in 4-5 weeks. And we're now into the 15th week with there still being…

• Investor confidence -13.4 vs -14.6 expected
• Prior -16.4

Euro area investor morale picked up more than expected heading into June, as concerns about a deep economic slowdown eased compared to the previous month. That said, the overall reading remains relatively subdued following the steep drop since April.

As things stand, the mood surrounding the euro area economic outlook is still rather poor compared to other major regions.

Germany remains the biggest drag still, with the current conditions index there falling by another 0.2 points to its lowest since February 2025. The overall reading for the euro area with regards to the current situation index is at -20.0 (previously -21.5) while the expectations index rose to -6.5 (previously -11.3).

• Pentagon adds Alibaba, Baidu and BYD to China military-linked firms list
• China's May trade balance, exports and imports all higher than expected
• Daiwa sees BOJ June hike as bid to avoid falling behind the curve
• Australia business confidence improves in May but stays deeply negative
• China car sales fall 22% in May as oil prices crush petrol demand
• PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 6.8147 (vs. estimate at 6.7809)
• Buy USD/JPY dips on yen intervention, market forces point higher, RBC says
• Japan economy minister flags rate rise risks as BOJ decision nears (
• South Korea halts programme trade with Kospi jumping more than 5%
• Preview: ECB to hike rates to 2.25% Thursday as oil inflation risk mounts. What's next?
• UK retail sales surge in May…
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The designations stopped short of sanctions or export blacklist status, limiting immediate financial damage, but the indirect procurement restrictions create real supply chain pressure for US defence contractors that currently work with listed firms. Baidu ADRs fell 2.1%, with Alibaba and BYD each down 0.8% on the news. The timing is the most diplomatically sensitive element, arriving weeks after the Trump-Xi Beijing summit and the announcement of a joint investment and trade board, underscoring how quickly security-driven friction can re-emerge alongside diplomatic progress. The reinstatement of memory chipmakers CXMT and YMTC, dropped from the February draft, signals that China hawks in Washington retain meaningful influence over the…

more to come

Exports +19.4% y/y

• exp. +15.0%, prior +14.1%

Imports +27.4% y/y

• exp. +25.0%, prior +25.3%

Trade balance +$105.43B

• exp. +$92.1B, prior +$84.82B

The data reinforces the structural shift underway in the world's largest auto market, with high oil prices accelerating the transition away from internal combustion vehicles faster than the headline sales decline might suggest. The record 62.9% NEV share and 54% of exports being new-energy vehicles signals that Chinese manufacturers are using the domestic downturn to sharpen their export-oriented EV proposition. For oil demand forecasters, a sustained shift in China's vehicle mix at this pace carries meaningful long-run implications for gasoline consumption. The sequential improvement from April and an anticipated modest June recovery provide some floor, but tighter financing conditions and cautious consumers suggest no sharp rebound is…

The modest confidence improvement offers slim comfort for RBA watchers given the index remains firmly negative across all industries and profitability is the weakest sub-component relative to its long-run average. The drop in capacity utilisation below 82%, the first such reading since early 2025, is consistent with an economy losing momentum and adds to the case for the RBA to maintain an easing bias. Cost pressures easing only slightly keeps the inflation picture complicated, particularly alongside the global energy price environment. For markets, the data reinforces a picture of an Australian economy muddling through rather than deteriorating sharply, which is unlikely to force the RBA's hand in either direction in the near term.

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The sharp rebound in both BRC and Barclays data will offer some near-term relief for UK consumer sentiment readings, but the underlying picture remains cautious. Spending growth of 0.8% annually remains well below the 3% inflation rate, meaning real consumer purchasing power is still being eroded. The third consecutive monthly decline in travel and the 12.9% drop in airline spending are the starkest signals that geopolitical anxiety around the Iran conflict is actively shaping household behaviour beyond the retail sector. For Bank of England watchers, the mix of recovering retail volumes but persistent real-terms weakness and travel caution keeps the policy outlook finely balanced.

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UK retail sales jumped 3.7% year-on-year in May, the…

• A mix day for the US stock indices. Dow closes lower. S&P and NASDAQ rise
• WSJ: Trump seeks peace, but Israel and Iran keep testing the limits
• Iran Official: Major Obstacles Remain in U.S.-Iran Talks
• Silver traders take the price below the 200 day MA for the 1st time since April and failed
• What you see is how you should trade. The GBPUSD is using levels that traders can see.
• Major European indices close mixed
• Israel's Netanyahu: Military operations against Hezbollah are not yet over
• US employment trends for May 107.01 versus 107.88 the last month (revised from 105.77)
• Netanyahu will decide on escalation in Iran at the Security Council's meeting this evening
• More headlines from the Middle East: Isreal halts preparations for new round of strikes
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The Wall Street Journal is outlining what happened over the last 24 or so hours and what continues to be clear is that Trump and Netanyahu seem to be diverging more and more. Netanyahu continues to say that he and Trump are on the same page, but Trump is not liking the implications of the war. His approval rating from a Reuters Poll is holding near his lowest level at 35% with only 22% approving the handling of the cost of living.

Keys points from the article"

• Trump urged Netanyahu to avoid escalating the conflict after Iran launched missile attacks on Israel.
• When it became clear Israel would respond, Trump reportedly pushed for a limited retaliation rather than a broader military campaign.
• Trump's primary goal is to preserve…
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China’s May trade data is the focus, though its not likely to move major markets too much upon release. Export and import growth have tended to exceed expectations so far in 2026. Higher tech prices are boosting both export and import prices, helping the numbers rise.

The major U.S. stock indices finished mixed after giving back a significant portion of their early gains. In premarket trading, the NASDAQ was higher by more than 500 points, and although the cash-session high reached a gain of roughly 470 points, sellers gradually chipped away at the advance throughout the day. The index still managed to close higher by 220.23 points, or 0.86%, at 25,929.66, but it finished much closer to the session low of 25,872.68 than its high, reflecting a loss of upside momentum into the close.

A similar pattern unfolded in the S&P 500. The index closed higher by 21.99 points, or 0.30%, at 9,405.72, but that modest gain came after a much stronger start that saw the index up as much as 83.08 points during the…