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Bitcoin price analysis: Sellers failed below $76,000. Now buyers face $81,460

Bitcoin CME futures swept to $75,795 and rebounded on unusually heavy trading. The four-hour recovery is encouraging, but holding $79,040 and clearing $81,460 would tell us much more about whether buyers have genuinely regained control.

Bitcoin CME futures have changed character in the space of a few sessions. After aggressive selling and repeated attempts to extend the decline, the market briefly broke below $76,000, recovered, and then rallied to $81,460 on November 4. It is a promising short-term reversal attempt, but the difference between a rebound and a lasting change of trend still matters.

The starting point is straightforward: sellers achieved a fresh low…

Oil is now the lead indicator for gold, with any further slide in crude likely to extend bullion’s gains through softer inflation expectations and a weaker dollar. The gap between that move and still-firm Fed hike pricing is the key tension: if rate markets start to follow oil lower, gold has room to run, but if they hold, the rally may stall. For energy traders, a 9% drop in Brent on diplomacy hopes alone shows how much risk premium remains in the price, and how quickly it could return if talks falter. The dollar’s slide adds a second tailwind for gold that may persist if US political uncertainty weighs on the currency.

Newswire cut: Gold rose about 3.3% to around $4,060, its biggest daily gain since August, as Brent fell about 9% on…

The Nikkei-Topix gap is likely to stay in focus as long as the rotation out of AI persists, with price-weighted chip heavyweights able to sink the Nikkei on a broadly positive day. Lower oil is a direct support for Japan’s terms of trade, favouring importers and domestic sectors over energy-sensitive shippers. Afternoon results from Toyota, and from Sony and Nintendo after the close, could test whether the rally broadens further. Any rebound in crude on setbacks in Iran talks would remove the main pillar under the move.

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Earlier:

• SoftBank faces two hits as Arm slide meets US rotation out of AI, leaving Nikkei exposed

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Most of Japan’s market cheered cheaper oil; the handful of AI giants that move the Nikkei did not.

Summary:

• The Topix rose…

The PBOC allows the yuan to fluctuate within a +/- 2% range, around this reference rate. More here on this.

People's Bank of China injected 263 billion yuan of overnight reverse repurchase operations, @1.25%

• maturing today are 257.5 billion yuan of overnight reverse reposand, 115 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repos, and 500 billion yuan of 3-month outright reverse repos
• net withdrawal today is thus 609.5 billion yuan

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

A Berkshire purchase tends to act as a sentiment signal for the target stock, which may help sustain Sirius XM’s rally as long as the broader rotation holds. More widely, it adds a high-profile example to the case for cash-generative, buyback-heavy companies at a time when investors are questioning returns on AI spending. Other mature media and consumer names with strong free cash flow could draw interest on the same logic. If AI stocks rebound quickly, though, the appetite for value plays may fade as fast as it arrived.

--- While the market argues over AI spending, Berkshire is quietly buying a company that hands cash back to shareholders.

Summary:

• Berkshire bought about 924,000 Sirius XM shares for roughly $27 million from October 30 to…

With a hike almost fully priced, sterling’s reaction will hinge on the vote split and guidance, with a 7-2 outcome and cautious language the most likely route to a softer pound. Gilts could rally if the Bank pushes back on market pricing for several more hikes, particularly at the short end. Oil is the swing factor beyond today: renewed strength in crude and gas would keep pressure on the Bank to tighten further, while any easing in Middle East tensions would weaken the case for a second move. The updated inflation projections will be scrutinised for how much of the energy shock the Bank expects to persist into 2027.

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The Bank of England is set to hike; what it says about the next one will matter more.

Summary:

• The BoE is widely expected to…

A sidecar on a 4% down day signals forced or automated selling at pace, and traders will watch whether the pause steadies futures or merely delays further losses. Korea’s heavy weighting in chipmakers leaves it exposed to any extension of the overnight rotation out of AI-linked stocks, with knock-on effects for regional tech and the won. A weaker won could add to the pressure if foreign investors keep selling.

The November 19 timetable is a minor liquidity consideration, but one that can catch out overseas desks used to the normal opening time.

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Korea hit the brakes on its trading algorithms today, and in two weeks it will hit pause for its students.

Summary:

• The KOSPI fell around 4% on Thursday, and a sidecar briefly suspended program…

Earlier this week:

• China’s PBOC lifts FX reserve ratio to 6%: what it means for the yuan, AUD

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The People’s Bank of China is due to set the daily USD/CNY reference rate at around 0115 GMT (2115 US Eastern time), a fixing that remains one of the most closely watched signals in Asian foreign exchange markets. China operates a managed floating exchange rate system, under which the renminbi (yuan) is allowed to trade within a prescribed band around a central reference rate, or midpoint, set each trading day by the PBOC. The current trading band permits the currency to move plus or minus 2% from the official midpoint during onshore trading hours. Each morning, the PBOC determines the midpoint based on a range of inputs. These include the…

The data offer something for both sides of the BoJ debate: historically sharp cost pressures support further tightening, while slowing hiring and weaker confidence give the cautious camp ammunition. On balance, the release is unlikely to shift December pricing materially, leaving the yen more sensitive to the BoJ minutes and oil-driven inflation signals. Firms citing inflation as a drag on confidence underlines how energy costs from the Middle East are feeding into Japanese business sentiment. Weak export orders point to limited support from overseas demand.

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Earlier:

• BoJ minutes: board backed further hikes, flagged 50% oil surge as government urged caution

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Japan’s service providers are still growing and still paying up, but they’re…

A stronger trade surplus is modestly supportive for the Australian dollar, reinforcing the currency’s link to commodity prices. With energy prices elevated by the Middle East conflict, Australia is better placed than many importers, as LNG and coal export earnings help cushion a rising fuel bill. The data are unlikely to shift Reserve Bank of Australia expectations on their own, given the volatile gold component. Traders will look to upcoming volume data for a cleaner read on how much net exports are adding to growth.

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Gas and metals did the heavy lifting for Australia’s trade surplus in September, with a big drop in gold imports doing the rest.

Summary:

• Australia’s goods trade surplus widened to about A$2.8 billion in September, the…

The comments are likely to firm pricing for a December hike, which would mark a turn from the lowest policy rate among major central banks and could lend support to the Swiss franc. With fuel and heating costs driving the jump, the oil price is now a direct input to Swiss rate expectations, tying SNB policy more closely to developments in the Middle East. A franc-supportive shift would also reduce one of the main channels through which the SNB has historically leaned against imported inflation. Traders will watch wage and rent data for the second-round effects Schlegel flagged as the trigger for a more forceful response.

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Swiss inflation is still inside the SNB’s target, but the speed of the move has caught the bank’s attention, and its…

A shared bypass line would chip away at the Hormuz risk premium over time by giving Gulf producers beyond the UAE a route to market that avoids the strait. With ADNOC’s denial, though, the report is unlikely to move crude near term, and the risk premium stays anchored to shipping attacks and transit volumes through the strait itself. The 2027 second line is the more tangible supply factor, potentially easing Asian buyers’ exposure to Hormuz disruption. Repeated attacks on Fujairah also limit how much comfort traders can take from bypass capacity, keeping the infrastructure itself part of the risk.

- The pipeline ADNOC says isn’t happening would have turned the UAE from a country avoiding Hormuz into one selling a way around it.

Summary:

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