Market News

•  Asian Stock Markets : Nikkei down 2.72%, Shanghai Composite down 0.53% Hang Seng up 1.27% ASX up 0.92%
• Commodities : Gold at $4,020.90 (-0.44%) Silver at $57.585 (0.11%), Brent Oil at 85.22 (3.83%), WTI Oil at 82.59 (4.21%)
• Rates : US 10-year yield at 4.611, UK 10-year yield at 4.9519, Germany 10-year yield at 3.1087

• (USD) CB Consumer Confidence
•   90.8  to 92.4 expected

U.S. stock futures edged lower on Wednesday as oil prices climbed following an Iranian missile attack targeting American forces in the Middle East, while heavy selling in semiconductor stocks pushed South Korea’s markets sharply lower.

S&P 500 futures slipped 0.12%, Nasdaq 100 futures fell 0.49%,…

• The passage of time definitely works against us on inflation
• If higher oil prices persist, inflation risks will rise
• September decision remains open and data-dependent
• Second-round effects are not evident, expectations are anchored
• Rate hikes in ECB projections don't obligate us, policy can't depend on today's yield curve
• As inflation risks rise, balance shifts towards a pre-emptive action
• Higher prices may already be filtering into part of the economy not easily observed
• Full report here

ECB Governing Council member Christodoulos Patsalides said there was no justification for raising interest rates at last week's meeting as inflation remains broadly in line with the ECB's projections, inflation expectations are well anchored, and there is…

IC – Asia Fundamental Forecast | 29 July 2026

What happened in the U.S. session?

Market participants largely refrained from making aggressive moves ahead of today’s highly anticipated FOMC interest rate decision, policy statement, and Fed Chair’s press conference, which are expected to set the direction for the U.S. dollar, Treasury yields, equities, and precious metals. Meanwhile, falling crude oil prices on improving geopolitical sentiment pressured energy markets, while corporate earnings created divergence across U.S. stock indices, with the Dow benefiting from strong earnings and the Nasdaq remaining under pressure due to continued weakness in semiconductor stocks.

What does it mean for the Asia Session?

Wednesday’s Asian session is…

IC – Europe Fundamental Forecast | 29 July 2026

What happened in the Asia session?

The Asia session was driven almost entirely by Australia’s softer-than-expected inflation report, which reduced expectations for additional RBA tightening and triggered broad Australian dollar weakness. At the same time, Australian stocks and bonds benefited from the prospect of a more patient central bank. Elsewhere, trading activity remained cautious as investors looked ahead to the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision and Chair Kevin Warsh’s press conference later today, while elevated geopolitical risks continued to underpin the U.S. dollar and oil prices.

What does it mean for the Europe & US sessions?

Mrket sentiment is being driven by softer…

• June mortgage approvals 58.2k vs 57.2k expected
• Prior 56.2k; revised to 56.6k
• June net consumer credit £1.8 billion
• Prior £1.7 billion

The net borrowing of mortgage debt by individuals in the UK increased to £7.7 billion in June, up from £3.3 billion in May. That comes as net mortgage approvals also show a jump to 58,200 on the month, though continuing to keep below the running 6-month average of around 61,400 approvals. The breakdown shows that approvals for remortgaging increased to 34,200 in June, up from 33,800 in May.

Meanwhile, net borrowing of consumer credit increased slightly to £1.8 billion - holding in line with the running 6-month average. Net borrowing through credit cards was £0.9 billion while net borrowing through other forms…

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW

Gold is trading near weekly lows as the hedging activity into the FOMC decision and renewed escalation on the US-Iran front weighed on the precious metal.

Iran launched a “surprise attack” against US forces in the region tonight. All the missiles and drones were intercepted, but the escalation increased the risk of a prolonged conflict.  

Today, all eyes will be on the FOMC decision. The Fed is expected to keep interest rates unchanged at 3.50%–3.75%. The consensus expects up to two dissenters to vote in favour of a rate hike at this meeting, likely Fed's Logan and/or Fed's Hammack. We won't get the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) at this…

The FOMC is expected to keep the target range for the federal funds rate unchanged at 3.50%–3.75%. The consensus expects up to two dissenters to vote in favor of a rate hike at this meeting, likely Fed's Logan and/or Fed's Hammack. We won't get the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) at this meeting. 

Forward guidance is likely to remain limited, with Fed Chair Warsh expected to refrain from providing any major policy signals while stressing data dependence and the Fed's commitment to price stability. 

STATEMENT AND PRESS CONFERENCE

The June's FOMC statement surprised everyone with how short and shallow it was, but it should be the baseline for future statements. The focus will be mainly on the first line where it shows the vote split.

The…

US Stocks Mixed Ahead of Key Fed Call – Dow up 1%

US equity markets delivered a mixed performance overnight as investors remained cautious ahead of today’s highly anticipated Federal Reserve interest rate decision and another busy round of corporate earnings. While weakness in semiconductor stocks weighed on the technology sector for a second consecutive session, gains across financials, industrials, and defensive sectors helped the broader market remain resilient.

The Dow Jones rose 1.03% to close at 52,747, outperforming its peers, while the S&P 500 edged 0.21% higher to 7,428. The technology-heavy Nasdaq slipped 0.22% to 24,876 as investors continued to take profits in chipmakers ahead of the Fed announcement.

Bond markets…

Over the past five days, the Nasdaq has fallen more than 3%,  and while the case for a further decline may look strong at first glance, there are still a few “buts.” 

Starting with geopolitics, although tensions in the Middle East have flared up again,pushing oil prices higher and raising concerns about a more aggressive Federal Reserve stance, the White House has little interest in letting the conflict drag on, as it could hurt the Republicans’ chances in the upcoming midterm elections.

According to aPOLITICO poll, the share of MAGA supporters who believe the war is worth the economic costs has already fallen from 50% in May to just over one-third, while nearly one in five believe the U.S. should end its involvement in the war regardless…

When markets are surging with euphoria, there's never any problem. But when exposed to volatility on the opposite end that causes sharp losses, suddenly it's an issue. Boohoo.

In the run from April to the peak in June, South Korea's benchmark KOSPI index gained by a whopping 85%. Since then, the AI trade went bust and that has brought about heavy declines in the past five weeks. The negative streak is extending to this week too with the KOSPI at one point even being down near 13% earlier today after the over 10% drop yesterday. But towards the close, we saw losses pared somewhat to salvage a drop of just 6% by the time the closing bell struck.

So after the 85% run higher in about 10 weeks with no complaints, we're seeing a 40% drop now in…