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Trump on Truth Social:

Israel and Iran must immediately stop “shooting.” President DONALD J. TRUMP

There have been also reports that the US is assisting in intercepting Iranian missiles but not in attacks. I don't think Iran is going to care much about the difference.

I feel like this escalation is going to resolve soon but the problem is that the US-Iran stalemate is almost certainly going to extend further and that's going to keep oil prices elevated. That's the most important thing as the hawkish Fed risks are now taking centre stage.

If Trump doesn't end this on his own, the Fed is going to do it for him and it won't be nice...

US Stocks Crash After Strong Jobs Update – Nasdaq down 4%

US markets finished sharply lower on Friday as investors reacted to a much stronger-than-expected US employment report, effectively extinguishing hopes of a near-term Federal Reserve interest rate cut. The stronger labour market data reinforced expectations that the Fed will maintain a restrictive monetary policy stance for longer, prompting a broad sell-off across risk assets.

The Dow Jones fell 1.35% to close at 50,866, while the S&P 500 dropped 2.64% to 7,383. Technology stocks bore the brunt of the selling pressure, with the Nasdaq tumbling 4.18% to finish at 25,709, as higher bond yields weighed heavily on growth valuations.

Fixed income markets saw significant moves…

  DXY (U.S. Dollar Index):

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

The price could make a short-term pullback toward the pivot before rising again toward the 1st resistance

Pivot: 99.51

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 98.97

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential area where the price could again stabilize.

1st resistance: 100.64
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart:…

IC Markets Global – Asia Fundamental Forecast | 08 June 2026

What happened in the U.S. session?

The May 2026 U.S. jobs report, released during Friday’s U.S. session, delivered a shock to markets with 172,000 additions versus 85,000 forecast, confirming labor market resilience and effectively extinguishing Federal Reserve rate-cut expectations for 2026. This data triggered a cascade: Treasury yields surged (10-year to 4.54%, 30-year topping 5%), the dollar strengthened sharply against majors (pushing USD/JPY through 160), and a tech rout unfolded with the Nasdaq falling 4.2% as semiconductor stocks plummeted 11-16%. Precious metals suffered broad losses (gold -3.27%, silver -7.17%) on the stronger dollar and higher yields, while bitcoin…

IC Markets Global – Europe Fundamental Forecast | 08 June 2026

What happened in the Asia session?

A sharp risk-off rout as investors dumped AI-linked tech stocks amid valuation concerns and U.S. rate-hike fears, while simultaneous Iran-Israel missile strikes triggered an oil spike and dollar surge. The Korean won, and the KOSPI were the most battered instruments, hitting a 17-year low before government intervention, and the Kospi plunging 5%, with chipmakers Samsung and SK Hynix leading losses. Brent and WTI crude surged 3–4% on Middle East escalation, and Japan’s Nikkei and Taiwan’s benchmark fell nearly 4% as the entire chip-production supply chain tumbled. The U.S. dollar strengthened across the board as the primary safe haven, while…

Global Markets:

•  Asian Stock Markets : Nikkei down 3.75%, Shanghai Composite down 1.26% Hang Seng down 1.28% ASX down 0.70%
• Commodities : Gold at $4,432.87 (-0.51%) Silver at $67.942 (-1.69%), Brent Oil at $96.67 (3.94%), WTI Oil at $93.98 (3.80%)
• Rates : US 10-year yield at 4.573, UK 10-year yield at 4.9100, Germany 10-year yield at 3.0376

• (USD) Non-Farm Employment Change  172K  to 85K   expected

Global markets faced renewed pressure on Monday after Iran reportedly launched missiles at Israel, threatening a fragile ceasefire and escalating tensions in the Middle East. Israel responded with strikes targeting western and central Iran, raising fears of a broader conflict.

U.S. futures…

• IRGC says they responded to Israel's attack on petrochemical plant by launching missile on similar plant in Haifa
• IRGC says Israel started a dangerous game by targeting oil industry and civilian sites
• Reports say Iran fired 30 missiles at Israel since Sunday
• Iran's Foreign Ministry Spokesperson says overnight developments will only worsen the chaotic situation of the diplomatic process with the US

Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) said it launched a missile strike against a petrochemical facility in the Haifa area in response to Israeli attack on Iran's petrochemical sector. The IRGC accused Israel of "starting a dangerous game" by targeting oil and petrochemical infrastructure as well as civilian sites.

The latest exchange…

• Investor confidence -13.4 vs -14.6 expected
• Prior -16.4

Euro area investor morale picked up more than expected heading into June, as concerns about a deep economic slowdown eased compared to the previous month. That said, the overall reading remains relatively subdued following the steep drop since April.

As things stand, the mood surrounding the euro area economic outlook is still rather poor compared to other major regions.

Germany remains the biggest drag still, with the current conditions index there falling by another 0.2 points to its lowest since February 2025. The overall reading for the euro area with regards to the current situation index is at -20.0 (previously -21.5) while the expectations index rose to -6.5 (previously -11.3).

Markets closed the week out with sentiment taking a dip after stronger-than-expected US employment data removed any hopes of a Fed interest rate cut in 2026, while the situation in the Middle East remains in the balance.

The Week Ahead is relatively quiet in terms of tier 1 risk events; however, the ones that are scheduled are significant, with two major central banks set to make interest rate calls, while on the data front, we have major inflation numbers out of the US that could put a tightening cycle on the Fed’s agenda rather than the promised cuts that were being priced in a few months ago.

Once again, though, expect geopolitical updates to continue to dominate short-term moves as the week progresses, with updates on the Middle…

Iran's foreign ministry spokesperson is out with a message saying that the US is the one who is directly responsible for the recent ceasefire breaches. He also adds that Israel's actions in attacking Iran cannot be separated from US policies, and that the latest developments are fueling further distrust in any talks with the US.

The message remains clear so far to start the new week. That being the US and Iran are still no closer to a deal than they were last week, and the week before, and the week before that.

• Industrial orders -3.8% vs -2.0% m/m expected
• Prior +5.0%; revised to +4.5%

After the big surge in March, German industrial orders fell back in April as the effect from stockpiling and advanced ordering looks to fade as quickly as it all came. Even if excluding large orders (the more volatile component), the monthly figure in April still reflected a 3.8% decline compared to March.

As such, it is a good bet that the jump in March was largely tied to stockpiling and advanced ordering in anticipation of price increases and availability issues. And in April, the effect of that is wearing off as the Middle East conflict begins to bite.

Looking to the less volatile three-month comparison, new orders from February to April were 3.1% lower than in…

The exchange of blows certainly don't seem to indicate that this is just a limited salvo. If anything, it reads as something that could escalate further. I guess that explains the more direct response by Iran earlier here.

Iran state media is now reporting that Israeli strikes from earlier has damaged its Karoon Petrochemical plant in the Mahshahr zone. It's not the first time that the area has been impacted by regional conflicts but Israel being the one to stir the pot now is making it even tougher for any deal to be struck between the US and Iran.

The Karoon Petrochemical complex is one that produces essential chemicals for manufacturing flexible foams and rigid foams. Think care seats, mattresses, insulation, etc. in terms of what type…