Market News

The note gives investors a framework for Wednesday’s selloff in AI infrastructure stocks: a delay story rather than a demand collapse, which may limit further downside if pauses prove brief. A pull-forward of spending into 2027 could support near-term orders for chipmakers and power equipment suppliers, including Asian manufacturers tied to the buildout. Companies with power and permits already secured may gain relative value as new approvals slow. The main risk to the view is that pauses run longer than expected, which would shift the hit from timing to capacity.

---

Goldman sees the political backlash against data centres as a speed bump for the AI buildout, and possibly a reason to build faster before it arrives.

Summary:

• Goldman…

The roughly 13% gap between Rhythm’s close and the reported offer price leaves room for a further move if talks are confirmed, but also reflects the risk that no deal materialises. The report is likely to lift interest in other mid-sized obesity and rare disease biotechs as potential targets, given the appetite large drugmakers are showing for the space. For AstraZeneca, a deal of this size is unlikely to move its shares materially but would signal it is willing to buy growth to hit its 2030 target. Chinese drug developers that have licensed obesity assets to Western groups may also draw attention as part of the same deal flow.

- AstraZeneca is reaching for a niche corner of the obesity boom, and paying a premium to get there.

Summary:

The minutes add a hawkish edge to the yen outlook, with talk of a faster pace and getting closer to neutral “relatively soon” supporting pricing for a December move. Against that, one member’s view that market expectations are running ahead of the economy may cap how far rate pricing extends, particularly at the longer end of the JGB curve. Oil is now an explicit driver of BoJ thinking, so renewed crude strength from the Middle East is likely to feed directly into Japanese rate expectations. The Cabinet Office’s call for caution is a reminder that political resistance to rapid tightening remains a factor.

-

The BoJ board in September was arguing over how fast to go, not whether to keep going, with oil doing much of the persuading.

Summary:

The note offers a counterweight to Wednesday’s rotation out of AI and chip stocks, arguing that the political risk to data centre spending is more likely to come from state and local decisions than from Washington. For bonds, the risk is skewed toward the long end, where any upswing in deficits and Treasury supply would be felt most, supporting a preference for shorter maturities. Debt-ceiling brinkmanship next year is the event risk to watch for volatility across rates and equities. For investors already overweight AI names, the guidance favours using dips to rebalance rather than to exit.

-

UBS sees more gridlock than upheaval from the midterms, with the real fights coming over debt and the AI boom still intact.

Summary:

• UBS sees the…

The call places oil at the centre of the gold outlook, making Brent and Hormuz shipping headlines the lead indicators for bullion rather than conflict escalation itself. Any sustained drop in crude would likely flow quickly into rate expectations, with Fed pricing the main transmission channel to watch. Until then, the near-term risk for gold stays tied to energy-driven inflation and Fed hike expectations. For positioning, the view argues for treating de-escalation headlines as potentially bullish for gold, a reversal of the usual haven playbook.

Info via note doing the rounds ICYMI. 

For Citi, gold’s next bull run starts not with a crisis but with the end of one.

Summary:

• Citi has a 0-3 month gold target of $4,500 an ounce and a 6-12 month…

The split gives both sides of Wednesday’s rotation a research anchor, which may keep AI infrastructure stocks volatile as investors weigh which camp the next earnings season supports. Names exposed to data centre construction and power appear most vulnerable to the state-level permitting and cost risks both houses flag. Hyperscaler debt issuance is a pressure point to watch, given Citrini’s concern about softening demand for those securities. In Asia, the debate feeds directly into AI-linked heavyweights such as SoftBank, where sentiment toward the global buildout drives pricing.

---

UBS and Citrini agree on where the AI risk lives, and disagree completely on how big it is.

Summary:

• UBS raised its AI capex forecasts to $1.0 trillion for 2026…

BoJ minutes due on the September hike that split the board

The Bank of Japan releases the full minutes of its September 17 and 18 policy meeting at 8:50 a.m. Tokyo time on Thursday, and they cover one of the most consequential decisions of the current tightening cycle.

At that meeting the BoJ raised its policy rate by 25 basis points to 1.25%, the highest since 1995, on a 7-2 vote. The hike came three months after the previous one, compared with six months between earlier moves.

The dissents drew as much attention as the hike itself. Toichiro Asada and Ayano Sato preferred to keep the rate at 1%, with Asada pointing to core inflation below 2% and questioning whether the economy was strong enough to absorb another increase. Sato later said…

The after-hours move suggests investors are pricing the guidance rather than the quarter, with the gap between a firm revenue outlook and a softer earnings range pointing to margin pressure as the key risk. A beat that fails to lift the stock tends to weigh on near-term sentiment across the broader chip complex, particularly for names leveraged to smartphone demand. Asian handset and semiconductor supply-chain stocks may take their cue from how Qualcomm trades at the US open. A sharper sell-off in the regular session would signal that the capex surprise is being read as a drag on returns rather than an investment in growth.

---

Qualcomm cleared the bar for the quarter, but a light earnings outlook and a jump in spending left investors…

A 5% fall on a beat in both earnings and revenue shows how high the bar had been set, with the market treating guidance that only matches consensus as a disappointment. The reaction may weigh on AI-linked chip names in the regular session, where richly valued stocks have little cushion for anything short of a clear upgrade. The AGI CPU order book offers some longer-term support, but near-term trading is likely to be driven by positioning rather than the delivery timeline. A recovery would probably need clearer signs of the new processor’s revenue contribution.

---

Earlier:

• Qualcomm beats Q4 forecasts, shares slip 2% as profit guidance comes in light

---

Arm beat on every headline number, but an outlook that only matched expectations was not…

The divergence on Wall Street sets up a likely split in Tokyo, where AI-linked heavyweights could trail even as the broader market draws support from strong global risk appetite. Falling oil is a modest positive for energy-importing Japan, but a weaker dollar raises the prospect of a firmer yen, a headwind for exporters. The BoJ minutes add a second potential yen driver before the cash open. Traders looking for a relative-value signal will focus on the Nikkei-Topix spread, which tends to widen when AI and chip names diverge from the rest of the market.

---

• Arm shares fall 5% after hours despite Q2 beat as outlook only edges past forecasts

---

Wall Street gave Tokyo a strong lead, just not for the stocks the Nikkei leans on most.

Summary:

• Arm…

The share reaction was not available at the time of writing, but the mix points to a tug of war between margin-focused and growth-focused investors. A user miss tends to weigh more heavily on social media stocks than a small revenue shortfall, because audience size underpins future ad pricing. The in-line holiday-quarter outlook offers little to change sentiment either way. Read-through to other digital advertising names is likely to be limited, given the guidance gives no clear signal on the broader ad market.

---

Earlier:

• Qualcomm beats Q4 forecasts, shares slip 2% as profit guidance comes in light
• Arm shares fall 5% after hours despite Q2 beat as outlook only edges past forecasts

---

Snap is making more money from the users it has, but it…

US stocks closed sharply higher on Wednesday, with the Dow Industrial Average leading the way with a 3.03% gain. The S&P 500, Nasdaq Composite and Russell 2000 also advanced, but the Nasdaq 100 lagged as selling in Nvidia and AI infrastructure stocks limited the upside.

The rally followed the Democrats’ election victory in both chambers of Congress. Lower Treasury yields, a weaker dollar and falling oil provided a more supportive backdrop for equity buyers as markets assessed the implications of divided government.

The buyers showed up across much of the market. However, there was a clear dividing line within technology. Microsoft, Amazon and Apple posted strong gains, while a number of companies supplying the AI buildout moved sharply…