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• Industrial orders -3.8% vs -2.0% m/m expected
• Prior +5.0%; revised to +4.5%

After the big surge in March, German industrial orders fell back in April as the effect from stockpiling and advanced ordering looks to fade as quickly as it all came. Even if excluding large orders (the more volatile component), the monthly figure in April still reflected a 3.8% decline compared to March.

As such, it is a good bet that the jump in March was largely tied to stockpiling and advanced ordering in anticipation of price increases and availability issues. And in April, the effect of that is wearing off as the Middle East conflict begins to bite.

Looking to the less volatile three-month comparison, new orders from February to April were 3.1% lower than in…

The exchange of blows certainly don't seem to indicate that this is just a limited salvo. If anything, it reads as something that could escalate further. I guess that explains the more direct response by Iran earlier here.

Iran state media is now reporting that Israeli strikes from earlier has damaged its Karoon Petrochemical plant in the Mahshahr zone. It's not the first time that the area has been impacted by regional conflicts but Israel being the one to stir the pot now is making it even tougher for any deal to be struck between the US and Iran.

The Karoon Petrochemical complex is one that produces essential chemicals for manufacturing flexible foams and rigid foams. Think care seats, mattresses, insulation, etc. in terms of what type…

The salvo continues to start the new week. The latest headlines crossing are noting that the Israeli military had detected missiles launched from Iran toward the country. As such, their defensive systems are operating to intercept them. It is also being reported that these missiles are part of a coordinated ballistic missile launch by Iran from multiple bases targeting Israeli territory.

The IDF adds that precautionary alerts have been sent to mobile phones in relevant areas and instructed the public to seek shelter until further notice.

As the exchange of strikes continue, it is setting up for a tense return from the weekend. The attack by Iran here is a direct response to Israel's own strikes from earlier. And in that lieu, we are no…

• Iran and Yemen launch missiles towards Israel
• Explosions heard in Tehran and elsewhere in Iran
• Goldman Sachs drops call for December Fed rate cut
• Reports/rumors of explosions at Prince Sultan Air Base in Saudi Arabia
• Head of US equity and quant strategy at BoA sees too many red flags in stock markets
• Japan Q1 GDP (second reading) 1.8% q/q annualized vs 1.3% expected
• Trump: Israel will have 'no choice' but to accept deal with Iran
• Netanyahu "more or less" agreed to wait on striking back on Iran
• UK foreign min: Conflict between Iran and Israel is in no one's interest. S&P futures fall
• Trump says Iran close to a deal, doesn't want to blow it up over Beirut and Iran strikes
• Iran weekend news: OPEC+ continues the charade, negotiations appear stuck,…
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There are unconfirmed reports of 2 explosions in Saudi Arabia potentially via an Iranian ballistic missile attack on Prince Sultan Air Base in Saudi Arabia. That's an unusually quick response so I'm skeptical.

Saudi Arabia's civil defense earlier issued an early warning but said the threat had passed in the area of Al Kharj.

Impressively, US equity futures are back at the highs, up 0.2% and the euro is also creeping back towards the levels of pre-Israel strikes.

The market doesn't seem to be believing this report about Saudi Arabia and I understand the skepticism.

In addition to the latest rumors of strikes on a US base in Saudi Arabia, now we have a much more credible report from Israel's military, which says it has identified the launch of a missile from Yemen towards Israel. There are also other reports of launches from Iran towards Israel.

Friday was a major gut-check in markets but I don't think it was a disaster.

I'm reminded of the old adage: Bull markets go up the escalator and correct on the elevator. That means that sharp, periodic corrections are a normal part of healthy bull markets. A steady bleed lower over many days would be much more concerning.

Of course, what we've seen lately isn't just a healthy bull market but a borderline mania, particularly in places like South Korea and memory stocks. There is a sense that a bubble has formed and could pop at any point.

I share the fear but picking tops and bottoms is a terrible idea. The trend is your friend and panicking after one measly selloff following an incredible month is simply poor trading.

Moreover, today we're…

So much for Trump restraining Netanyahu. Maybe it was a ruse, maybe Bibi doesn't care what Trump wants.

There are reports of explosions in Tehran, Tabriz and Isfahan, according to Iranian reports. Earlier, I noted there were reports from the US military of objects over Jordan so this isn't entirely surprising.

It's not clear if these were Israeli missiles or planes but Israel said they were military targets.

The question now is whether Iran responds or seeks peace. There is immediately some give-back in the green shoots in markets and S&P 500 futures are negative again.

WTI crude is quickly up to $95.40 from $93.57 a few minutes ago.

One thought I have is that Iran's Tehran's international airport was hit but it was evacuated earlier today.…

• Prelim was +2.1%
• Q4 was +0.8%
• Q/Q GDP +0.5% vs +0.3% expected
• Private consumption +0.3% vs +0.3% prelim and 0.0% in Q4

Separately, current account data for April showed a surplus of 3907B yen vs 3136B expected.

Overall, this is a good report and is supportive of the yen. All eyes are on intervention today with USD/JPY above 160.00.

Israel's N12 reports on today's call between Trump and Netanyahu.

Trump asked Israel not to respond to the missile attack and to wait a few days to allow negotiations to continue. Netanyahu “more or less agreed" the report says.

The report said Netanyahu tried during the phone call to object to Trump's request not to respond, but he accepted it (though time will tell).

Trump must have a better sense of negotiations than what it looks like from the outside because it's looking grim. In any case, this has helped to lift stock futures as S&P 500 futures are now -0.2% from -0.6% at the open.

WTI remains up $2.38 to $92.93.

There was a time when the opinion of Britain Foreign Secretary mattered in Middle Eastern affairs but, unfortunately, that time has passed. I don't think Israel or Iran care what Britain thinks and I'd wager that Britain isn't interested in anything beyond a strongly-worded letter to any side.

In any case, she said Iran and Israel must show restraint and de-escalate immediately.

In terms of markets, S&P 500 futures are down 0.6% and Nasdaq futures are down 0.7%, adding to Friday's rout.

Trump is doing a real media tour today. Just in the past three hours, he's spoken to Fox News, Axios and now the FT where he says:

• Netanyahu will have 'no choice' but to accept a deal with Iran
• "I call the shots, I call all the shots. He [Netanyahu] doesn't call the shots"
• Iran's strikes have not changed his desire to conclude US-Iran negotiations
• “I decide. I decide everything. He doesn’t decide.”
• Asked what would happen if any such deal failed on its merits, he said he would consider a commando raid on Iran

The latest comments come just after Trump spoke on the phone with Netanyahu.

In any case, these comments sound like Trump is absolutely done with the war in Iran. Now that could be an attempt to help markets but it could also be a diversion…