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So much for Trump restraining Netanyahu. Maybe it was a ruse, maybe Bibi doesn't care what Trump wants.

There are reports of explosions in Tehran, Tabriz and Isfahan, according to Iranian reports. Earlier, I noted there were reports from the US military of objects over Jordan so this isn't entirely surprising.

It's not clear if these were Israeli missiles or planes but Israel said they were military targets.

The question now is whether Iran responds or seeks peace. There is immediately some give-back in the green shoots in markets and S&P 500 futures are negative again.

WTI crude is quickly up to $95.40 from $93.57 a few minutes ago.

One thought I have is that Iran's Tehran's international airport was hit but it was evacuated earlier today.…

• Prelim was +2.1%
• Q4 was +0.8%
• Q/Q GDP +0.5% vs +0.3% expected
• Private consumption +0.3% vs +0.3% prelim and 0.0% in Q4

Separately, current account data for April showed a surplus of 3907B yen vs 3136B expected.

Overall, this is a good report and is supportive of the yen. All eyes are on intervention today with USD/JPY above 160.00.

Israel's N12 reports on today's call between Trump and Netanyahu.

Trump asked Israel not to respond to the missile attack and to wait a few days to allow negotiations to continue. Netanyahu “more or less agreed" the report says.

The report said Netanyahu tried during the phone call to object to Trump's request not to respond, but he accepted it (though time will tell).

Trump must have a better sense of negotiations than what it looks like from the outside because it's looking grim. In any case, this has helped to lift stock futures as S&P 500 futures are now -0.2% from -0.6% at the open.

WTI remains up $2.38 to $92.93.

There was a time when the opinion of Britain Foreign Secretary mattered in Middle Eastern affairs but, unfortunately, that time has passed. I don't think Israel or Iran care what Britain thinks and I'd wager that Britain isn't interested in anything beyond a strongly-worded letter to any side.

In any case, she said Iran and Israel must show restraint and de-escalate immediately.

In terms of markets, S&P 500 futures are down 0.6% and Nasdaq futures are down 0.7%, adding to Friday's rout.

Trump is doing a real media tour today. Just in the past three hours, he's spoken to Fox News, Axios and now the FT where he says:

• Netanyahu will have 'no choice' but to accept a deal with Iran
• "I call the shots, I call all the shots. He [Netanyahu] doesn't call the shots"
• Iran's strikes have not changed his desire to conclude US-Iran negotiations
• “I decide. I decide everything. He doesn’t decide.”
• Asked what would happen if any such deal failed on its merits, he said he would consider a commando raid on Iran

The latest comments come just after Trump spoke on the phone with Netanyahu.

In any case, these comments sound like Trump is absolutely done with the war in Iran. Now that could be an attempt to help markets but it could also be a diversion…

It was a busy weekend in the Middle East but the good news is that Trump still appears to be trying to forge a deal.

He said he was unhappy that Israel had struck the southern suburbs of Beirut and Iran firing missiles at Israel.

About 90 minutes ago Iran fired missiles at Israel in response to Israel striking Beirut, followed by a second wave. Iran said it targeted Ramat David air base. There have been reports that Israel intends to respond but Trump encouraged them not to. At the same time, Iran said that the attack was a warning and that it would be broader if Israel continues to strike Beirut. They noted that the ceasefire was conditional from the outset on cessation of fire on all fronts.

A short time after that unfolded Trump spoke to…

• US stocks close sharply lower. The NASDAQ index has it worse trading day since April 2025
• Meta is considering raising tens of billion dollars in a stock offering
• Trump: Would like to see lower interest rates
• Baker Hughes oil rig count up 2 to 431
• Gold is sinking with the US dollar rising and yields moving higher
• Traders push bitcoin to the lowest level going back to October 2024. Stocks reach new lows
• CNN: Iran-US talks reportedly deadlocked
• Energy Sec Wright: We will refill the SPR by 40M barrels after Iran conflict is over
• Trump cheers Jobs report. Bond yields rising/ stock sliding send warnings
• Tech meltdown deepens while consumer defensive stocks shine bright
• Fed's Hammack: Today's jobs report reaffirms that the jobs market is roughly in…
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In a letter to Russia's Putin, Ukraine's Zelenskiy proposed to end the war saying "Enough of war".

In a striking public letter addressed directly to Vladimir Putin, President Zelensky called for an immediate end to the war and proposed a face-to-face meeting at a neutral venue — naming Switzerland, Türkiye, and Arab states as potential hosts. He made clear that after 26 years, there is nothing for a Ukrainian leader to do in Moscow, just as there is nothing for a Russian leader to do in Kyiv.

Zelensky pushed back on the idea that Ukraine's fate could be decided without Ukraine. Referencing the Alaska talks between U.S. and Russian officials, he was blunt: Ukrainian and European issues are not resolved in Anchorage. He called for Europe and…

• Will leave interest rate decision to Warsh
• Would like to see lower interest rates
• Says the country is doing well, market should go up
• He would not mind if Warsh were to cut interest rates.
• Will leave rate cut to Warsh during October meeting.

What is curious is his response that will leave rate cut to Warsh but cites the October meeting. He seems to be giving in for the June, July, September meetings.

On Iran and oil prices says:

• Having great success with Iran, and Iran is in no position to have a nuclear weapon.
• Has about energy prices, says that they have many options

More:

• Meeting scheduled with AI companies
• Concept of American public AI partnership it is interesting

The Baker Hughes rig count for the current week shows oil im inventories up 2 to 431 . Natural Gas inventories are down -1 to 124 and Total rigs are up 1 to 563.

The decline in rigs has been hard since the peak above 1000 rigs back in early 2019. What is the stories behind the declines?

2018 boom: The rig count averaged over 1,400 historically, but the modern shale era has been far more efficient. The period started strong with rigs climbing to a cycle peak of 1,083 in November 2018 as oil prices were high and shale was in full swing.

2019 slide: Even before COVID, the count was already retreating — oil prices softened and investors pushed E&P companies toward capital discipline over growth, pulling the count down to around 800 by late 2019.

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CNN is reporting:

• Iran says negotiations with the U.S. have stalled, with senior adviser Mohsen Rezaei claiming President Trump must act to break the impasse.
• Iran is demanding the release of $24 billion in frozen assets as part of any agreement:
  • $12 billion upon signing an interim deal.
  • Another $12 billion at a later stage.
• Iran views the asset release as a trust-building test, arguing that unlocking the funds would demonstrate U.S. commitment to a lasting agreement.
• U.S. officials reportedly oppose releasing the funds at this stage, concerned that doing so would reduce a key source of leverage over Iran.
• Rezaei warned against a return to military conflict, stating that if fighting resumes, Iran could expand operations beyond the Persian…
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Putin is back saying:

• it will be official for United States use Russia's LNG technologies in Alaska
• On benefits for Russia from war in Iran: market stability is important.
• Oil supply decline rattles markets, we are there in OPEC plus to balance the market.
• We are grateful to Saudi Arabia for cooperation on global oil market

The price of crude oil is down $-2.30 or -2.47% at $90.73.. The move to the downside is now taken the price below the 200 hour moving average at $91.87. The low prices today reached $90.47. The high today reached $93.63.

The United States maintains sanctions on Russian oil, but the sanctions are not a complete global ban on Russian oil exports.

Key points:

• The U.S. banned imports of Russian crude oil, petroleum products,…
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