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Crude oil futures are selling off sharply as traders react to comments from Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer about ending the war with Iran.

Schumer says Democrats will move to end the war and that some Republicans have joined them. He adds that Americans do not want the conflict, do not understand why it was launched, and want it to end. The prospect of congressional action is weighing on oil as traders reassess the premium tied to the war and potential supply disruptions.

Meanwhile, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth is facing increased scrutiny. CBS News reports that President Trump has asked advisers whether Hegseth should remain in his position following Republican losses in Tuesday’s elections. However, the White House says Trump…

House Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries says Democrats will pursue legislation to stop President Trump’s tariffs and bring an end to the war with Iran. He also wants to reverse Medicaid cuts and restore the enhanced Affordable Care Act tax credits, placing healthcare costs at the center of his affordability agenda.

The proposals target four areas:

• Tariffs: Reassert congressional authority over trade policy and seek to roll back Trump’s tariffs. Jeffries argues that those duties have increased the cost of everyday goods.

• Iran: Pursue legislation to end U.S. involvement in the war. He has said Democrats should examine available legislative options, including Congress’s control over funding, without committing to a specific funding…

US stocks are sharply higher, with the Dow up 2.06%, the S&P 500 up 1.75%, the Nasdaq Composite up 2.40% and the Nasdaq 100 up 2.03%. The run to the upside - especially in the tech heavy Nasdaq indices are interesting in that a Democrat sweep - along with the referendum votes on data centers - could limit expansion.  That too may slow the spending as well which may put a governor on the cost side for corporatations.  

The price action and the technicals become important in times of change and volatility.  Be aware that things can turn around, so having a technical roadmap is important. 

In the video above, I outline the key levels that will determine whether buyers can keep the momentum going or start to lose some of the control

A quick…

• Prior was -1892K
• Gasoline -222K vs +153K expected
• Distillates -3565K vs -100K expected

API data from late yesterday:

• Crude -5267K
• Gasoline +1427K 
• Distillates -270K

It's all about Trump and the Iran war today. There's a line of thinking that he will blame his advisors or others for the Iran war and look to wrap it up. In the post-mortems from the election, all sides are blaming an unpopular war and rising gasoline prices for the defeat. In contrast, Trump could go for broke on defeating Iran by escalating further in an effort to create a legacy.

WTI crude oil was last down $2.08 to $93.99 per barrel.

One of the clearest messages from Tuesday's US midterm elections had nothing to do with Republicans or Democrats. It was a resounding rejection of data centers.

Communities across the country voted on dozens of ballot measures involving data-center construction, zoning, moratoriums and development restrictions. Almost everywhere, voters came down on the same side: against new development.

The margins were extraordinary in many places.

• Granville, Ohio: 82.5% voted to prohibit data centers.

• Sunbury, Ohio: 78.6% supported a ban on large data centers, potentially affecting a proposed $2 billion Amazon project.

• Trenton, Ohio: 79.6% backed restrictions on large-scale data centers.

• Edgewater, Florida: 77.6% supported a ban on new data centers and…

• Prelim was 57.9
• Prior was 58.8
• Composite PMI 55.9 vs 57.6 prelim
• Coimposite prior was 58.4
• Sentiment regarding future activity fell to its lowest since May
• Demand was reported to be high
• Sentiment was overall at its lowest since May

This adds negative risk to the ISM services report at the top of the hour. 

I'm fearful that the Fed is behind the curve on inflation and that it's broadening. Of course, Trump could help to reverse that if he can get out of the Iran war ASAP.

Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence: “The October PMI surveys mark a strong start to the fourth quarter for the US economy, indicative of GDP rising at an annualised rate of over 4%. The star of the upturn remains the tech sector, but…

• Prior was 54.9
• Prices paid vs 74.0 prior
• New orders vs 59.8 prior
• Employment vs 50.1 prior
• Business activity vs 56.5 prior

For background, the Institute for Supply Management’s Services PMI is one of the most closely watched monthly gauges of the US economy. It’s released at 10 am ET on the third business day of the month, two days after its manufacturing counterpart, and is based on a survey of purchasing and supply executives at services firms. The report was known as the non-manufacturing index until 2020.

Like other PMIs, it’s a diffusion index where readings above 50 signal expansion and below 50 signal contraction. The headline is a composite of four equally weighted sub-indexes: business activity, new orders, employment and supplier…

US elections can have a significant impact on financial markets, not only because they determine who controls the government but also because they influence expectations about future fiscal policy. One of the most important aspects of the US political system is that Congress controls the government's spending and taxation decisions, giving election outcomes the potential to reshape the economic outlook.

When one party controls both chambers of Congress, passing legislation can become easier. Conversely, divided government, where different parties control the presidency, the House and/or the Senate, can create political gridlock and make major fiscal changes more difficult. These political dynamics matter because fiscal policy influences…

Details

• Prior was +90K
• Construction +13K vs +15K prior
• Manufacturing -1K vs +17K prior
• Natural resources and mining -8K vs -1K prior
• Financial activities +15K vs -16K prior
• Professional and business services -27K vs -11K prior
• Education and health services +28K vs +55K prior
• Leisure and hospitality +19K vs +22K prior
• Wages for all workers 4.7% vs +4.8% prior
• Job stayers 4.4% vs 4.4% prior
• Job changers 7.6% vs 7.3% prior

From the report, ADP chief economist Nela Richardson said:

"Employers of all sizes were hiring last month, and our data suggests that job-changers were lured by a combination of bonuses, overtime, and more hours in addition to higher base pay. Taken together, earnings growth for these workers hit its fastest pace since March 2024."

For…

• Prior was -$105.6 billion
• Goods trade balance -135.0B vs -$134.9 billion prelim
• US-China balance -$21.87 vs -$18.4 prior
• Exports $321.51 billion vs $315.67 billion prior

Imports of capital goods are a good measure of AI spending and that rose to $157.97 billion vs $146.41 billion previously. Expect that to stay high as long as the buildout continues.

For background, the US international trade report is published jointly by the Census Bureau and the Bureau of Economic Analysis at 8:30 am ET, about five weeks after the reference month ends. It provides the full picture of US trade, adding services and detailed breakdowns to the advance goods figures released a week or so earlier.

The headline figure is the overall trade balance in goods and…

• Prior month +4.2B

The details of the Canada Trade Balance for the month of September:

• Merchandise trade balance: C$5.4 billion surplus. Prior C$4.95 billion surplus 9revised from C$4.20B.

• Exports: +0.2% MoM to C$78.6 billion vs C$78.41B prior. Prior +3.2%.

• Imports: -0.3% MoM to C$73.71 Billion vs C$73.46B. Prior -2.2%.

• Export volumes: -4.0% MoM.

• Import volumes: -2.5% MoM.

• Trade surplus with the United States: C$12.3 billion. Prior C$12.1 billion.

• August exports revised to C$78.4 billion from C$77.9 billion; imports revised to C$73.5 billion from C$73.7 billion.

Canada’s merchandise trade surplus widened to C$5.4 billion in September from C$5.0 billion in August, according to Statistics Canada. Exports edged higher while imports declined, but the…

The US dollar is lower, Treasury yields are falling and US stocks are trading higher as markets digest a major shift in Washington. Democrats have won control of both the House and Senate, setting up divided government for the final two years of President Trump’s term. The new Congress takes office in January.

For traders, the immediate question is how much of the initial reaction can hold. Lower yields and falling oil provide a more supportive backdrop for equity buyers, but the election result alone does not determine the next trend. Inflation, employment, earnings and the Fed remain key barometers.

A tougher legislative path in Washington

The result gives Democrats greater power to challenge the administration through congressional…