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• Will leave interest rate decision to Warsh
• Would like to see lower interest rates
• Says the country is doing well, market should go up
• He would not mind if Warsh were to cut interest rates.
• Will leave rate cut to Warsh during October meeting.

What is curious is his response that will leave rate cut to Warsh but cites the October meeting. He seems to be giving in for the June, July, September meetings.

On Iran and oil prices says:

• Having great success with Iran, and Iran is in no position to have a nuclear weapon.
• Has about energy prices, says that they have many options

More:

• Meeting scheduled with AI companies
• Concept of American public AI partnership it is interesting

The Baker Hughes rig count for the current week shows oil im inventories up 2 to 431 . Natural Gas inventories are down -1 to 124 and Total rigs are up 1 to 563.

The decline in rigs has been hard since the peak above 1000 rigs back in early 2019. What is the stories behind the declines?

2018 boom: The rig count averaged over 1,400 historically, but the modern shale era has been far more efficient. The period started strong with rigs climbing to a cycle peak of 1,083 in November 2018 as oil prices were high and shale was in full swing.

2019 slide: Even before COVID, the count was already retreating — oil prices softened and investors pushed E&P companies toward capital discipline over growth, pulling the count down to around 800 by late 2019.

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CNN is reporting:

• Iran says negotiations with the U.S. have stalled, with senior adviser Mohsen Rezaei claiming President Trump must act to break the impasse.
• Iran is demanding the release of $24 billion in frozen assets as part of any agreement:
  • $12 billion upon signing an interim deal.
  • Another $12 billion at a later stage.
• Iran views the asset release as a trust-building test, arguing that unlocking the funds would demonstrate U.S. commitment to a lasting agreement.
• U.S. officials reportedly oppose releasing the funds at this stage, concerned that doing so would reduce a key source of leverage over Iran.
• Rezaei warned against a return to military conflict, stating that if fighting resumes, Iran could expand operations beyond the Persian…
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Putin is back saying:

• it will be official for United States use Russia's LNG technologies in Alaska
• On benefits for Russia from war in Iran: market stability is important.
• Oil supply decline rattles markets, we are there in OPEC plus to balance the market.
• We are grateful to Saudi Arabia for cooperation on global oil market

The price of crude oil is down $-2.30 or -2.47% at $90.73.. The move to the downside is now taken the price below the 200 hour moving average at $91.87. The low prices today reached $90.47. The high today reached $93.63.

The United States maintains sanctions on Russian oil, but the sanctions are not a complete global ban on Russian oil exports.

Key points:

• The U.S. banned imports of Russian crude oil, petroleum products,…
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US Energy Secretary Wright is saying that the US will add 40M barrels after the Iran conflict is over.

Here's the full picture:

Current level: As of the week ending May 29, 2026, the SPR recorded a release of 8 million barrels, bringing the total down to 357.1 million barrels — the lowest level since January 2024.

Trump came into office with the SPR at around 392 million barrels and promptly pledged to fill it back up. In his January 2025 inaugural address, Trump indicated his administration intended to fill the SPR to capacity, and a February 2025 DOE Secretarial Order listed "Refill the Strategic Petroleum Reserve" as a department-level priority.

For much of 2025, that refill actually happened — the SPR steadily climbed to around 411–415…

The stronger-than-expected U.S. jobs report has created an interesting tug-of-war between the White House, the market, and the Federal Reserve. President Trump wasted little time weighing in, arguing on Truth Social that a "great Jobs Report" should be bullish for stocks, not bearish, emphasizing that economic growth does not automatically translate into inflation. White House NEC Director Kevin Hassett echoed that sentiment, saying the jobs data is not foreshadowing higher inflation and that oil market disruptions are unlikely to materially impact core inflation. Hassett also argued that strong supply-side growth can help prevent runaway price pressures and suggested the Fed has room to be patient, even going so far as to say…

• Prior was +115K (revised to +179K)

• Two-month net revision +93K
• March was +185K (revised to +214K)
• Unemployment rate 4.3% vs 4.3% expected
• Prior unemployment rate 4.3%
• Unrounded unemployment 4.296% vs 4.337% prior
• Participation rate 61.8% vs 61.8% prior
• U6 underemployment rate 8.1% vs 8.2% prior
• Average hourly earnings +0.3% m/m vs +0.3% expected
• Average hourly earnings +3.4% y/y vs +3.4% expected
• Average weekly hours 34.3vs 34.3 expected
• Change in private payrolls +120K vs +85K expected
• Change in manufacturing payrolls +7K vs +2K expected
• Government payrolls +52K vs -8K in April

The US labor market entered May firmly in low-hire, low-fire mode. Hiring had cooled to a trickle — the trailing 12-month pace down around +21K — but employers weren't cutting…

• The employment change -17.7 K revised to xxK
• Employment change change 87.8K vs 10.0K estimate
• Unemployment rate 6.6% versus 6.9% estimate . Prior month 6.9%.
• Full-time employment change 154.0K versus -46.7L ;ast month.
• Part-time employment change -66.2Kvs. 29.0 K last month
• average hourly wages or permanent employees 3.2% vs 4.8% last month
• Employment rose among employees in both the private sector (+56,000; +0.4%) and the public sector (+20,000; +0.4%) in May. The number of self-employed workers was little changed.

On the surface a very strong number. The US had a stronger than expected jobs report as well. The USDCAD is trading at 1.3876 down from 1.3890 prior to the report.

Details from Statistics Canada

• Employment increased by 88,000 (+0.4%)…
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Headlines:

• Another episode of the boy who cried wolf set to air later today?
• Explosion halts crude loading at Oman's Mina al Fahal in conflict escalation
• America still refuses Iran's request to unfreeze the frozen funds - Al Arabiya
• Semiconductors continue to struggle ahead of the Wall Street open
• What is the distribution of forecasts for the US NFP?
• What are analysts expecting from the US jobs report later today?
• How have interest rate expectations changed after this week's event?
• Euro area economic growth revised down to reflect a contraction in Q1 2026
• French trade deficit narrows slightly in April on diversified energy imports
• UK house prices ease just a touch in May as housing market keeps more resilient

Markets:

• WTI crude lightly changed at…
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• Construction PMI 38.2 vs 40.2 expected
• Prior 39.7

Ouch. That's a terrible reading as things are just getting worse for UK's construction sector in Q2. The estimate indicates that construction output fell at its sharpest pace since May 2020. And if you discount the drop during the Covid pandemic, this marks the steepest decline in activity since March 2009.

The decline was broad-based with residential activity (36.0) being the weakest performing segment. Commercial construction (39.0) also saw a steeper reduction in output levels in May while civil engineering work (36.2) continued to fall but at least at a slightly less marked rate than in April.

Construction firms noted that project delays, deferred investment decisions and general cutbacks…

The median estimate is for the headline non-farm payrolls figure to come in at 85k, with the unemployment rate to keep steady at 4.3% again. Typically, there will be a lot at stake when we get to the US jobs report. However, this time around is rather different as the Fed outlook is mired by US-Iran developments for the most part.

As things stand, traders are not expecting any rate changes by the Fed for this year. Of course, the situation remains fluid. But the fact of the matter is until there is more clarity on the US-Iran conflict and/or inflation developments, the Fed cannot feel confident in pre-committing to a particular rate path just yet.

Taking that into consideration, the US jobs report today will be less influential to the macro…

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