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• Prior was +115K (revised to +179K)

• Two-month net revision +93K
• March was +185K (revised to +214K)
• Unemployment rate 4.3% vs 4.3% expected
• Prior unemployment rate 4.3%
• Unrounded unemployment 4.296% vs 4.337% prior
• Participation rate 61.8% vs 61.8% prior
• U6 underemployment rate 8.1% vs 8.2% prior
• Average hourly earnings +0.3% m/m vs +0.3% expected
• Average hourly earnings +3.4% y/y vs +3.4% expected
• Average weekly hours 34.3vs 34.3 expected
• Change in private payrolls +120K vs +85K expected
• Change in manufacturing payrolls +7K vs +2K expected
• Government payrolls +52K vs -8K in April

The US labor market entered May firmly in low-hire, low-fire mode. Hiring had cooled to a trickle — the trailing 12-month pace down around +21K — but employers weren't cutting…

• The employment change -17.7 K revised to xxK
• Employment change change 87.8K vs 10.0K estimate
• Unemployment rate 6.6% versus 6.9% estimate . Prior month 6.9%.
• Full-time employment change 154.0K versus -46.7L ;ast month.
• Part-time employment change -66.2Kvs. 29.0 K last month
• average hourly wages or permanent employees 3.2% vs 4.8% last month
• Employment rose among employees in both the private sector (+56,000; +0.4%) and the public sector (+20,000; +0.4%) in May. The number of self-employed workers was little changed.

On the surface a very strong number. The US had a stronger than expected jobs report as well. The USDCAD is trading at 1.3876 down from 1.3890 prior to the report.

Details from Statistics Canada

• Employment increased by 88,000 (+0.4%)…
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Headlines:

• Another episode of the boy who cried wolf set to air later today?
• Explosion halts crude loading at Oman's Mina al Fahal in conflict escalation
• America still refuses Iran's request to unfreeze the frozen funds - Al Arabiya
• Semiconductors continue to struggle ahead of the Wall Street open
• What is the distribution of forecasts for the US NFP?
• What are analysts expecting from the US jobs report later today?
• How have interest rate expectations changed after this week's event?
• Euro area economic growth revised down to reflect a contraction in Q1 2026
• French trade deficit narrows slightly in April on diversified energy imports
• UK house prices ease just a touch in May as housing market keeps more resilient

Markets:

• WTI crude lightly changed at…
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• Construction PMI 38.2 vs 40.2 expected
• Prior 39.7

Ouch. That's a terrible reading as things are just getting worse for UK's construction sector in Q2. The estimate indicates that construction output fell at its sharpest pace since May 2020. And if you discount the drop during the Covid pandemic, this marks the steepest decline in activity since March 2009.

The decline was broad-based with residential activity (36.0) being the weakest performing segment. Commercial construction (39.0) also saw a steeper reduction in output levels in May while civil engineering work (36.2) continued to fall but at least at a slightly less marked rate than in April.

Construction firms noted that project delays, deferred investment decisions and general cutbacks…

The median estimate is for the headline non-farm payrolls figure to come in at 85k, with the unemployment rate to keep steady at 4.3% again. Typically, there will be a lot at stake when we get to the US jobs report. However, this time around is rather different as the Fed outlook is mired by US-Iran developments for the most part.

As things stand, traders are not expecting any rate changes by the Fed for this year. Of course, the situation remains fluid. But the fact of the matter is until there is more clarity on the US-Iran conflict and/or inflation developments, the Fed cannot feel confident in pre-committing to a particular rate path just yet.

Taking that into consideration, the US jobs report today will be less influential to the macro…

The post Ex-Dividend 08/06/2026 first appeared on IC Your Trading Edge | Official Blog.

• Construction PMI 42.4
• Prior 42.1

The sharp contraction in Germany's construction sector continues in May, as pressure continues to ramp up on both demand conditions and on the price front. New orders continued to decline at a sharp rate, albeit slightly better than in April. Of note, panellists indicated strong headwinds to demand from heightened levels of uncertainty and elevated price pressures.

As for inflation pressures, the rate at which input prices rose held close to April's 47-month high. That was driven by a continued increase in the cost of energy and oil-based products.

Meanwhile, firms also faced worsening supply delays in May as average lead times on building materials and products lengthened to the greatest extent since July…

• The core gap in the negotiations is the release of the frozen Iranian funds
• The method and mechanism for releasing the frozen Iranian funds is a gap in the negotiations
• Iran informed Pakistan of its acceptance to transfer part of its uranium to a third country it agrees upon
• America still refuses Iran's request to unfreeze the frozen funds

Disagreements over the release of frozen Iranian funds continue to stand in the way of a final agreement, according to reports from an Al Arabiya correspondent citing informed sources.

The latest discussions have narrowed several major gaps that had previously stalled diplomacy, however, negotiators remain divided over how and when Iranian funds frozen abroad would be released.

According to the sources, the…

• Q1 final GDP -0.2% vs +0.1% q/q second estimate
• Prior +0.2%

That's not a good look with the revision putting the overall euro area growth in the first quarter into negative territory. That marks a contraction to start the year with another set to follow this quarter amid the fallout from the Middle East conflict.

A technical recession looms but it comes with a bit of a caveat. The first quarter estimate here is heavily influenced by a sharp drop in Ireland's GDP. While only accounting for a small weightage in the overall calculations, there was a massive swing here to see the impact punch well above the weight. That as Ireland's GDP is confirmed to drop by over 12% in the first quarter.

Outside of France, all other bigger countries that pull…

IC Markets Global – Europe Fundamental Forecast | 05 June 2026

What happened in the Asia session?

Geopolitical risk as Middle East tensions escalated and U.S.-Iran peace talks stalled, triggering defensive market positioning. Asian stocks as the AI-driven tech rally paused, with investors taking profits ahead of the weekend. The Japanese yen strengthened sharply to test the 160 level against the dollar, drawing concern from Japanese officials, while the dollar benefited from safe-haven demand. Gold prices slipped toward a weekly loss amid inflation concerns and diminished peace deal hopes, while oil prices remained flat on uncertainty surrounding the ceasefire negotiations.

What does it mean for the Europe & US sessions?

Unexpectedly…

• CPI +0.6% vs +0.8% y/y expected
• Prior +0.6%
• Core CPI +0.3% y/y
• Prior +0.3%

Swiss headline annual inflation holds steady at 0.6% in May, with the monthly estimate showing a 0.2% increase in prices compared to April. The slight increase on the month was largely driven by rising housing rentals and higher prices in the hotel sector, alongside higher petrol, car rental and car sharing prices.

As for the core estimate, there was an increase of 0.1% on the month but the annual reading remains the same as in April at 0.3%.

This indicates that while there is some increase in price pressures in the Swiss economy from higher energy prices, it isn't enough to really change the inflation outlook all too much for now.

Given time, we can expect a broadening…

  DXY (U.S. Dollar Index):

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

The price has already bounced off the pivot and may continue its bullish move toward the 1st resistance

Pivot: 99.21

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 99.05

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential area where the price could again stabilize.

1st resistance: 99.54
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart:…