Market News

•  Asian Stock Markets : Nikkei down 3.95%, Shanghai Composite down 0.98% Hang Seng down 0.31% ASX up 0.40%
• Commodities : Gold at $4,044.20 (-0.80%) Silver at $57.460 (-2.15%), Brent Oil at 84.94 (-1.07%), WTI Oil at 81.68 (-1.13%)
• Rates : US 10-year yield at 4.628, UK 10-year yield at 4.998, Germany 10-year yield at 3.1275

• (USD)   Durable Goods Orders m/m 0.3%  to 1.6% expected

U.S. stock futures edged lower in early Asian trading on Tuesday as investors prepared for a crucial week featuring earnings from major technology companies and the Federal Reserve’s latest interest rate decision.

S&P 500 futures fell 0.1%, while Nasdaq 100 futures declined 0.5%. Dow Jones…

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW

USD:

The US dollar opened the week lower yesterday after the US halted its strikes following 13 consecutive days of attacks, while Iran pledged to maintain a ceasefire so long as the US remained on pause.

This has led to some optimism as traders took this latest development as an early sign of a potential de-escalation and triggered a selloff in oil prices.

Despite this positive development, the greenback erased the losses and printed a new weekly high. The support hasn’t come from Treasury yields or economic data, so this suggests that it might have been just hedging activity ahead of tomorrow’s FOMC decision.

The Fed is expected to hold interest rates steady but…

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW

The S&P 500 has been mostly rangebound this month as the US-Iran crisis brought back inflation and growth risks. This has also happened amid overcrowded stock market positioning which has led to deleveraging across the board.

The latest weakness seems to be more about hedging/deleveraging activity ahead of tomorrow’s FOMC decision rather than fresh Middle East news. In fact, the ceasefire is still intact, and the diplomatic efforts are ongoing (although things can change on a dime).

The Fed is expected to hold interest rates steady but there might be one or two dissenters voting for a rate hike at this meeting already. The forward guidance will…

• July consumer confidence 86 vs 85 expected
• Prior 84

The reading continues to reaffirm a further rebound in French consumer sentiment in July, though keeping well below the peak earlier this year in February of 92. And overall, the estimate is still well below the long-term average reading of 100.

French households are seen feeling better about their personal financial situation, past and future, in July. Both estimates of the past and expected financial situation showed a two point increase to -26 and -14 respectively on the month. Besides that, consumers also were more optimistic about their expected saving capacity and current ability to save. So, there's that.

But perhaps the most notable part of the report is a drop in inflation…

US Stocks Mixed as Oil Extends Sharp Decline on Middle East Optimism – Dow up 0.5%

US financial markets delivered a mixed performance overnight as investors continued to respond positively to signs of easing tensions in the Middle East. Sentiment improved after President Trump stated that the US was having “good talks” with Iran, raising hopes that diplomatic progress could eventually lead to increased oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz and help alleviate concerns over global energy supply.

The prospect of improving supply conditions weighed heavily on crude oil prices, with Brent crude tumbling 9.26% to US$87.82 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) fell 8.19% to US$82.00. The sharp decline in energy prices also…

IC – Asia Fundamental Forecast | 28 July 2026

What happened in the U.S. session?

During the U.S. session overnight, geopolitical developments dominated global markets, with reports that the United States and Iran paused military strikes and resumed diplomatic engagement, significantly reducing fears of an immediate disruption to oil supplies through the Strait of Hormuz. As a result, WTI and Brent crude oil prices fell sharply by around 5–8%, reversing much of last week’s geopolitical risk premium. The decline in energy prices improved overall market risk sentiment, lifting equity futures and reducing demand for traditional safe-haven assets. Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar traded slightly weaker against most major currencies as investors…

It is one thing to have the backing of other members in the region but a whole other thing to expect Iran to accept this proposal. Here are the some of the details outlined by the source:

• Iran would not exercise sole control of Strait of Hormuz
• It will be a joint regional mechanism to manage the strait with voluntary fees
• The proposal structure is one based on the Straif of Malacca, where those who use the waterway voluntarily contribute to fund navigation, environmental protection, search and rescue

Well, just on the first point itself I think the proposal would be dead in the water. I can't imagine Iran accepting these conditions without any give, that especially with the renewed conflict with the US again. As a reminder, the US naval…

There aren't any major expiries to take note of on the day, with the full list seen below.

The market mood as we look towards European trading later is more defensive with all eyes on the rout in tech shares. It is a bloodbath in Asia and while European indices may not be as tech heavy in focus, that will only serve to put all the attention on US stocks later in the day.

S&P 500 futures are already down 0.3% with Nasdaq futures down 1.0% as the AI jitters look to permeate. And all this is setting the stage for a more nervous next few days, with big tech earnings on the agenda. As a reminder, Meta, Microsoft, Amazon, and Apple are among the feature names on the earnings calendar this week. So, that will be the make or break for the overall…

While renewed tensions in the Middle East continue to influence investor sentiment, gold is also facing headwinds from elevated US Treasury yields, a resilient US dollar and uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve’s next policy decision. 

Unlike previous geopolitical crises, military developments are no longer a major factor driving the precious metal. Instead, gold traders must assess how geopolitical events could influence inflation, interest-rate expectations and the US dollar—all of which ultimately shape gold’s direction.

With President Donald Trump delaying a major military escalation against Iran and the Federal Reserve set to announce its latest monetary policy decision on Wednesday, the precious metal could face a volatile week.

• Japan June core CPI +2.7% y/y
• Prior +2.7%
• Japan June core-core CPI +2.0% y/y
• Prior +2.1%

Just be wary though that in the case of the BOJ data set here, the core CPI estimate still includes energy but excludes fresh food and institutional factors. Meanwhile, the core-core CPI estimate also excludes energy from the equation. As such, the core-core CPI estimate is the more crucial one as it provides a better underlying picture of the inflation outlook.

Taking that into consideration, core prices continuing to stay high is no surprise especially after the surge back up in March and April. For some context, the core CPI estimate fell from a peak of 3.0% in August last year to 2.2% in February this year. That before climbing back up to 2.8% in April…