Market News

• Prior was +2.1%
• Monthly +0.3% vs +0.2% expected
• Prior monthly +0.2%

FHFA data:

• National prices +2.6% y/y vs +2.3% prior
• +0.3% m/m vs +0.0% prior

Some home buyers will be glad they did in July to lock in those mortgage rates because they've been climbing since and are now at cyclical highs. Overall, the US housing market is surprisingly healthy but home building and home improvement are in a deep recession.

Bitcoin continues to trade up and down in a relatively modest range. Today’s low came in near $82,760, while the high reached $84,459.

The key technical story remains the swing area between $81,517 and $82,833. Bitcoin broke above that area on Monday, September 21, and extended to a high near $87,334. It returned to nearly the same level on Wednesday, reaching $87,272, before rotating lower.

Since then, sellers have had several chances to push the price back through the old resistance area. Bitcoin found support near the top of that area on Thursday and again yesterday. Today’s low briefly entered the area, but the move lower quickly stalled. Buyers have continued to show up where they needed to.

What would take control away from the…

The Reserve Bank of Australia raised its cash rate by 25 basis points to 4.60%overnight. The decision was unanimous. The RBA said some upside risks to inflation are materializing, with higher energy costs and domestic price pressures among its concerns. It left the door open to another hike if needed, while emphasizing that future decisions will depend on the data and evolving outlook. Read the InvestingLive report on the decision here.www.rba.gov.au

The Australian dollar has nevertheless moved lower. In the latest supplied FX snapshot, AUDUSD is near 0.6999, down 0.21%, making it the weakest of the major currencies against the U.S. dollar. That is an important distinction for traders: the RBA raised rates, but price action is telling us…

Oil prices dipped briefly after The Atlantic reported that President Trump supports a plan to exchange the release of political prisoners for sanctions relief. The initiative, led by Trump's envoy John Coale, is still in its early stages, and Trump had reportedly expressed support for the concept several months ago.

The headline matters for the oil market because any credible prospect of easing restrictions on Russia could eventually put more Russian crude onto global markets. Russia is one of the world's largest oil producers and exporters, so a reduction in sanctions pressure could improve the availability of its barrels, particularly for major buyers in Asia.

This comes at a time when global oil markets are already dealing with…

• Prior was +0.3% m/m (revised to +0.4%)
• August preliminary reading +0.2%
• July construction +1.3%
• Utilities +1.7%
• Manufacturing -0.9% on refinery outages
• Retail trade -1.0% led by -3.5% at gasoline stations
• Wholesale trade -0.4%

This is a good reading considering the revisions that make for a very strong June number and the positive flash estimate for August that's based on better mining and retail trade. USD/CAD is up 7 pips to 1.4179 today.

For July, the goods-producing industries grouping was essentially unchanged in July as increases in construction and utilities were offset by declines in the other sectors comprising the aggregate. The services-producing industries aggregate was essentially flat, as increases across several sectors were offset…

Headlines:

• Zcash remains supported by idiosyncratic catalysts, but macro headwinds limit further gains. What's next?
• Euro area economic sentiment slips in September as inflation expectations rise
• Silver remains at risk of further downside as US-Iran talks take centre stage
• AUD/USD risks bigger breakdown below 0.7000 as RBA rate hike fails to lift aussie
• Ethereum is coiling for a breakout amid US-Iran tensions: Where will it go?
• European stock market open: Stocks edge higher but surging yields keep pressure on the risk mood
• Gold selloff pauses as US-Iran talks revive deal hopes. What to watch next?
• Spain inflation climbs to near 5%, the highest in over three years
• What are the main events for today?
• RBA governor Bullock plays down August CPI, shifts…

A new AI company can put a product in customers’ hands quickly. Keeping the economics visible is harder. Altery gives an eligible newly incorporated business an account for operating payments and cards with limits, so a founder can see what the team is spending on model providers and cloud services. Stripe Billing handles a different side of the equation, charging customers for subscriptions or measured usage. Avalara’s AvaTax helps calculate transaction taxes when a digital product’s sales create obligations across jurisdictions. Deel’s Employer of Record service addresses the cost and administration of hiring a specialist in another country. Each tackles a separate…

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW

USD:

The US dollar has been supported recently by a hawkish repricing in interest rate expectations triggered by strong US economic data and renewed US-Iran tensions.

The bullish momentum accelerated last Wednesday when Trump poured cold water on expectations of an earlier end to the Iran war after he reiterated that the US would make a deal with Tehran after the November elections.

Moreover, on Wednesday we also got a very strong set of US Flash PMIs that sent Treasury yields to new highs and the odds for a rate hike in October to roughly 70%.

Heading into the weekend, the hopes for a US-Iran deal returned after Iran sent a proposal to reopen the…

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW

Zcash has been supported into new highs by several idiosyncratic catalysts like the European asset manager 21shares launching the first European ETP tied to Zcash or Paradigm’s, a firm with $12 billion dollars in assets under management, investment in Zcash and its ecosystem.

Moreover, Grayscale's Zcash ETF (ZCSH) underwent a 3-for-1 share split, with split-adjusted trading beginning tomorrow. This is going to reduce the share price and could attract more retail demand.

On the macro side, the crypto market has come under pressure recently due to renewed US-Iran tensions. The negative sentiment started last Wednesday when Trump poured cold water on…

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW

Silver came under heavy selling pressure yesterday after Trump rejected Iran’s proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and said he expected the US to resume bombing Iran after the midterms.

The outlook initially looked increasingly negative, but sentiment improved somewhat during the US session as a series of headlines pointed to potential US concessions.

According to Axios, Trump has reportedly offered Iran sanctions relief and access to frozen funds in exchange for progress on the nuclear programme, although the US President later denied the reports.

Trump did confirm, however, that American and Iranian negotiators are holding talks…

The latest euro area sentiment readings are out:

• Economic sentiment 97.9 vs 99.0 expected; Prior 98.4
• Industrial sentiment -3.8 vs -4.7 expected; Prior -5.0 (R)
• Services sentiment 6.1 vs 6.5 expected; Prior 5.6 (R)
• Consumer inflation expectations 35.2; Prior 33.0
• Selling price expectations 20.3; Prior 16.9 (R)

The headline isn't particularly encouraging as economic confidence slipped to 97.9 in September, missing expectations and remaining below the long-term average of 100.

That being said, I wouldn't read this as a straightforward deterioration in the euro area economy either. Industrial sentiment actually improved notably from August, while services confidence also edged higher despite falling short of expectations.

That suggests the recovery…