Market News

• The Pentagon is moving additional warships to the Middle East
• Trump says war will end when he feels it "in my bones"
• US GDP for Q4 (2nd revision) 0.7% vs 1.4% estimate and prior
• US PCE inflation +2.8% y/y vs +2.9% expected
• JOLTs job openings for January 6.946M vs 6.700M estimate
• University of Michigan sentiment (preliminary) for March 55.5 versus 55.0 estimate
• Canada February employment change -83.9K vs +10K expected
• Federal Judge quashes subpoenas sent to Fed and Chairman Jerome Powell
• Trump approval slips to 44% — markets should be watching the midterm risk
• Bad news for housing. The average rate on 30 year fixed mortgage rises to 6.41%.
• Barclays pushes back expectations for Fed rate cuts
• The US and Cuba are talking

Markets:

• WTI crude oil up $2.23…

The latest NBC poll shows Trump's approval among registered voters down 3 points to 44% from 47% in March 2025, with disapproval climbing to 54%. The DDHQ polling average paints a similar picture at 43.1/54.4.

What matters for markets here is the midterm setup. Trump himself is flagging the risk, noting the historical pattern of the White House party getting punished in midterms. If Republicans lose ground in Congress, that reshapes the legislative landscape for tax policy, tariffs, and deregulation — all of which are priced into current equity valuations to some degree.

The issue-by-issue numbers are telling: border security polls at 53% approval, but immigration broadly sits at just 44% and Iran policy at 41%. The Epstein file handling…

Canada just posted its worst jobs report since the pandemic.

The 83,900 jobs losses were the worst in a month since 2022 and -- worse yet, there were 108K full-time jobs lost. That's led to a slump in the Canadian dollar and boosted USD/CAD by 90 pips to 1.3728. That's the highest for the pair since March 7.

The report led to the unemployment rate rising to 6.7% from 6.5% but that metric is worth some perspective as it had been above 7% in the middle of last year.

Looking at the chart, it's not clear if this is the start of a renewed rise or a blip.

It's the same on the headline number as Canadian jobs reports tend to be very volatile and that's particularly true lately as estimates of the country's population have bounced around due to a…

The average rate of 30 year mortgage has shot up to 6.41%. That is the highest rate since September of last year and comes after the rate dipped below the 6.00% level to 5.98% during the week of February 23.

The spike in rates is following the rise in the 10 year note. The 10 year yield has moved up from 3.926% to the current rate of 4.283% since the start of the Iranian war.

Looking at the weekly chart, the yield has moved back above its 100 week moving average at 4.248% (blue line on the chart below). Last week, the price extended back above its 200 week moving average currently at 4.024% (Green line on the chart below)..

The 10 year yield is up 0.8 basis points in trading today.

US stocks are down on the day but off its session lows.

• Dow…

The WSJ reports that the US is moving additional warships to the Middle East, citing three US officials. It says that Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has approved a request from U.S. Central Command, responsible for American forces in the Middle East, for an element of an amphibious ready group and attached Marine expeditionary unit.

Such a unit would typically include several warships and 5,000 Marines, the officials said.

The Japan-based USS Tripoli and its attached Marines are now headed for the Middle East, two of the officials said.

On that ship:

She is a America-class amphibious assault ship — essentially a flat-deck vessel that functions similarly to a light aircraft carrier. LHA-7 was built by Huntington Ingalls Industries in…

We are deep into the improvisation phase of the war with Iran.

Donald Trump told The Brian Kilmeade Show he will know the Iran conflict is over “when I feel it in my bones." On a somewhat more-concrete note, he suggested it may not last much longer.

The market doesn't appear to be shifting in that direction. A WSJ report said the Pentagon sent a marine exeditionary unit to the Middle East, though it's not clear where. The fear is that a ground war could be coming.

WTI crude oil is now down just 60 cents to $95.12 after falling as low as $92.04 earlier. The S&P 500 is down 10 points after rising by 60 points earlier.

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Mexico's President said she helped to broker talks between the US and Cuba that are now confirmed.

Various reports said the talks have started and today Cuban President Miguel Díaz-Canel confirmed his government is holding talks with the Trump administration.

"These conversations have been aimed at seeking solutions through dialogue to the bilateral differences that exist between our two nations," Díaz-Canel said.

Trump didn't tweet directly about talks but posted an article citing talks on Truth Social.

The talks are only in the initial phase and Trump previously said they may or may not include “a friendly takeover” of the island.

Díaz-Canel said today that no fuel has entered the island in three months.

A report last week in USA today…

• Consumer sentiment preliminary for March 55.5 vs 55.0 estimate. Weakest cents December of last year.
• prior month 56.6.
• Current conditions 57.8 vs 56.6 prior month
• Expectations 54.1 vs 56.6 prior month. Weakest since November of last year.
• 1 year inflation expectations 3.4% vs 3.4% prior month
• 5 year inflation expectations 3.2% vs 3.3% prior month

Surveys of Consumers Director Joanne Hsu

Consumer sentiment dipped about 2%, reaching its lowest reading of the year. Interviews completed prior to the military action in Iran showed an improvement in sentiment from last month, but lower readings seen during the nine days thereafter completely erased those initial gains. Gasoline prices have exerted the most immediate impact felt by consumers, though…

• Prior month 6.542M revised to 6.550M
• JOLTs Job openings for January 6.946MM vs 6.700 M estimate.
• Hires 5.294M vs 5.272M prior (revised)
• Separations 5.105M vs 5.203M prior (revised)
• Quits 3.137M vs 3.225M prior (revised)
• Layoffs and discharges 1.631M vs 1.666M (revised)

For 2025 what did the numbers do?

• Job openings: Annual average 7.1 million in 2025, down 571K from 2024; openings rate 4.3% vs 4.6% in 2024.

• Hires: 63.0 million in 2025, down 1.5 million from 2024; hires rate 3.3% (down from 3.4%).

• Total separations: 62.8 million, down 251K from 2024; separations rate 3.3% (unchanged).

• Quits: 38.0 million, down 1.3 million, accounting for 60.6% of total separations; quits rate 2.0%.

• Layoffs and discharges: 21.2 million, up 1.2 million, accounting for…

US equity futures are flirting with the best levels of the pre-market following a wave of economic data that points to rate cuts if/when the US or Iran reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

Notable in the pre-market news was a report saying that Trump told other world leaders earlier this week that he expected Iran to surrender shortly. We also heard from Hegseth who claimed that Iran's new supreme leader is "wounded and likely disfigured". A new report also said France and Italy opened talks with Iran in the hopes of securing safe passage for its oil.

All that's leading to some optimism the war can be wrapped up shortly, though there are certainly cogent arguments that the US has overplayed its hand and the oil can be cut off for months.

In terms of…

• Prior estimate 1.4%
• GDP 2nd estimate 0.7% versus 1.4% preliminary. This is well below the expectations going into the 1st cut of the GDP (was expecting 3.0%).
• GDP Deflator 3.8% vs 3.6% est. and 3.7% preliminary
• Core PCE 2.7% versus 2.7% estimate and 2.7% preliminary
• GDP sales preliminary 0.4% versus 1.2% preliminary.
• Consumer spending 2.0% versus 2.4% preliminary
• PCE price is preliminary 2.9% versus 2.9% preliminary
• PCE X food, energy, and housing 2.8% versus 2.8% preliminary
• PCE services excluding energy and housing 3.6% versus 3.6% preliminary

The Q1 estimate for GDP from the Atlanta Fed GDP model estimates Q1 growth at 2.7% given released data.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

• Prior was +2.9%
• PCE M/M +0.3% vs +0.3% expected
• Prior +0.4%
• Core PCE Y/Y +2.8% vs +3.1% expected
• Prior +3.0%
• Core PCE M/M +0.4% vs +0.4% expected
• Prior +0.4%

Consumer spending and income for January:

• Personal income +0.4% vs +0.5% expected
• Prior +0.3%
• Personal spending 0.4% vs +0.4% expected
• Prior +0.3%
• Real personal spending +0.1% vs +0.1% prior

This is a problematic report for the Federal Reserve doves. The numbers were mostly in-line with expectations but if you zoom in, that's back-to-back months of +0.4% core PCE. You don't need too many more months like that to get to 2% inflation and those numbers will stay in the y/y calculation for the next 10 months. In addition, the energy price shock is coming.

For some background, the Personal Income and…