Market News

China is expected to maintain targeted fiscal support for local governments as rising debt and weak revenues tighten fiscal headroom, Fitch says.

Summary:

• Fitch Ratings expects China to maintain targeted fiscal support for local and regional governments (LRGs).

• LRGs are provincial and municipal governments responsible for infrastructure spending and regional development.

• Weak revenue growth and rising borrowing needs are expected to increase LRG debt in 2026.

• The property downturn and weaker land-sale income have pressured local government finances.

• Higher debt growth could narrow fiscal headroom within China’s sovereign rating framework.

• Beijing is likely to avoid large-scale stimulus while providing selective support to prevent financial stress.

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UK housing demand weakened in February as geopolitical tensions and higher energy prices raised fears mortgage rates could remain elevated.

Summary:

• The RICS house price balance fell to -12 in February, weaker than January’s -10 and the -9 expected by economists.

• The survey indicates more respondents reporting falling prices than rising ones.

• New buyer enquiries dropped sharply to -26 from -15, the lowest level since December.

• The survey period overlapped with the start of the U.S.–Israel war with Iran.

• Higher energy prices have raised concerns that mortgage rates could stay elevated for longer.

• Near-term sales expectations slipped to -2, the weakest since November.

• House price expectations fell sharply to -18 from -6.

• Tenant demand remained…

Summary:

• Morgan Stanley limited withdrawals from its North Haven Private Income Fund after redemption requests reached nearly 11% of shares outstanding.

• The fund returned about $169 million, or 45.8% of tender requests, due to quarterly redemption caps.

• Investor scrutiny is increasing across the $2 trillion private credit market.

• JPMorgan has marked down loans used as collateral by private credit firms, reducing their borrowing capacity.

• The adjustments largely affect software company loans, where AI disruption fears are rising.

• Higher redemptions have also appeared at funds run by BlackRock, Blackstone and Blue Owl.

• Banks appear to be taking precautionary steps to reduce leverage exposure in the sector.

Fresh signs of strain are emerging in the…

The U.S. has launched sweeping Section 301 probes into manufacturing overcapacity across 16 trading partners, opening the door to a new wave of tariffs.

Summary:

• The U.S. has launched a Section 301 investigation into 16 trading partners over excess manufacturing capacity.

• Targeted economies include China, the EU, Japan, India, Mexico, Vietnam and Taiwan.

• The probe could lead to new tariffs if unfair trade practices are confirmed.

• The investigation comes after courts struck down elements of Trump’s earlier tariff programme.

• Section 301 gives the U.S. president authority to impose trade penalties after an investigation.

• A second Section 301 probe into goods linked to forced labour could launch soon and may cover around 60 countries.

• The move…

An oil tanker near Iraq’s Umm Qasr port erupted in flames, with preliminary reports pointing to a possible direct attack on the vessel.

Some reports say its multiple tankers on fire.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

An oil tanker near Iraq’s Umm Qasr port erupted in flames, with preliminary reports pointing to a possible direct attack on the vessel.

Some reports say its multiple tankers on fire.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

• Stocks finish mixed as energy surges and yields rise
• EU warns that the US war on Iran could push EU inflation above 3%
• Bitcoin continues to waffle up and down,, but the bias is to the upside
• Trump: US military is way ahead of schedule
• Iran's President sets maximalist conditions for ending the war
• US February monthly budget -307.5B vs -75.85B expected
• Iran has threatened to strike the US west coast - report
• U.S. Treasury sells $39 billion of 10 year notes at a high yield of 4.217%
• Trump administration will announce new trade investigations - report
• Macron said it will take a "few weeks" to coordinate Hormuz ship escorts
• EIA weekly US crude oil inventories +3824K vs +1055K expected
• Trump suggests there's "practically nothing left" to target in Iran,…

EU officials warn a sustained energy shock from Middle East tensions could push inflation above 3% in 2026 and slow economic growth across the bloc.

Summary:

• EU warns inflation could exceed 3% in 2026 if oil and gas prices remain elevated.

• Brent crude near $100 per barrel would significantly worsen the inflation outlook.

• EU economy chief Valdis Dombrovskis says growth could fall 0.4 percentage points below the 1.4% forecast.

• Energy shocks and supply disruptions linked to the Iran conflict could weigh on activity.

• The International Energy Agency plans to release 400 million barrels from emergency reserves to ease oil prices.

• Higher inflation risks may force the European Central Bank to consider further rate hikes despite weaker growth.

The…

There is nothing on the schedule of events to move around markets too much.

As for the war, this raises more questions than answers:

• Trump suggests there's "practically nothing left" to target in Iran, war will end soon

Q1 is why the Strait of Hormuz is not yet safe if this is the case. Anyway, this guy is not known as a straight shooter, best ignored.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

• Says oil will be coming down
• Says the US has hit 28 mine ships
• They've hit Iran's leadership twice

We've heard all this before, just announce the end already. Try to make some kind of peace deal where ships can get through.

At the end of the day, what will this have really accomplished? Forcing Iran to build a new generation of weapons? Them realizing that Hormuz is their real leverage point?

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

• Says oil will be coming down
• Says the US has hit 28 mine ships
• They've hit Iran's leadership twice

We've heard all this before, just announce the end already. Try to make some kind of peace deal where ships can get through.

At the end of the day, what will this have really accomplished? Forcing Iran to build a new generation of weapons? Them realizing that Hormuz is their real leverage point?

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

This is from Iran President Masoud Pezeshkian:

Talking to leaders of Russia and Pakistan, I reaffirmed Iran’s commitment to peace in the region. The only way to end this war—ignited by the Zionist regime & US—is recognizing Iran’s legitimate rights, payment of reparations, and firm int'l guarantees against future aggression.

Those are certainly some aspirational demands, similar to the kinds of things that Ukraine has asked for. The US counter offer is likely "we'll stop dropping bombs on you" and Iran will almost certainly take it.

That said, there is always the risk that Iran wants to keep fighting and senses leverage in the Hormuz.

Also notable is a separate report that said Pezeshkian has had no contact with Mojtaba Khamenei. So it's not…