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In the opening days of the Iran war, there was something of a shock in markets but then markets settled into the idea that it would be a temporary disruption, with oil prices retreating afterwards. That was exactly what Trump said as he outlined a 4-5 week timeline, and affirmed when he later said the US was ahead of schedule.

Now the market is sensing that the plan is falling apart as Iran weaponizes the global energy supply by bombing tankers trying to pass through the Strait of Hormuz. There is talk of naval escorts but not until month-end and it's not clear they will work.

That's kicked off a fresh bid in oil -- up 10% today -- and a rethink on the path of global growth and inflation. In the US, Fed rate cut pricing is now down to 22…

WTI crude oil is now up 10% and has risen above the highs from Asian trading.

Britain's Defence Secretary says "it's clear Iran is likely laying mines" in the Strait of Hormuz.

That's an odd phrasing that indicates both clarity and uncertainty. I guess we won't really know if there are mines until:

1) Iran says so

2) A ship hits them

3) Someone else discovers and clears them

Also importantly, Defense Minister Healey said mine clearance is near impossible during conflict and the best way to reopen the shipping route is to de-escalate. So overall, I take this as a call to de-escalate.

Further hurting equity market is that Fed rate cut pricing is down to 24 bps for the year. It was at 60 bps before the war started and we've got a poor non-farm…

• Prior month housing starts 1.387M
• Housing starts for January 1.487M vs 1.348M last month
• Building permits 1.376M vs 1.410M estimate
• Prior month 1.455M

Housing Completions for January:

• Housing completions (Jan): 1.527M annual rate, +4.8% vs Dec (1.457M)

• YoY comparison: -7.5% vs Jan 2025 (1.651M)

• Single-family completions: 970K, -1.0% vs Dec (980K)

• Multifamily (5+ units): 532K annual rate

• Takeaway: Overall completions rose month-to-month, but remain below year-ago levels; weakness mainly in single-family completions.

Bottom line: The January housing data sends a mixed signal for the U.S. housing market. Housing starts rose strongly, driven largely by a surge in multifamily construction, suggesting builders are still pushing projects forward. However,…

• Prior was -1.30B
• Exports 62.48B vs 65.55B prior
• Imports 66.13B vs 66.85B prior

Canada's merchandise exports decreased 4.7%, while imports were down 1.1%. The 4.7% decline is the largest percentage decline since April 2025. Exports of motor vehicles and parts fell 21.2% to $5.4 billion in January, the lowest level since September 2021. Changes in the models produced resulted in prolonged seasonal production stoppages in January, which strongly affected exports of passenger cars and light trucks so there should be some rebound ahead.

There was also a slowdown in gold exports but that's a lumpy category and also doesn't reflect any kind of change in the economy.

Separately:

• Wholesale trade -1.0% vs -0.6% expected (+1.8% prior)
• Building permits…

• Prior was 213K (revised to 214K)
• initial jobless claims 213K vs vs 215K est
• 4 week moving average 212K vs 216K last week
• Continuing claims 1.850M vs 1.850M expected
• Prior 1.868M revised to 1.871M

Steady. No Hire. No Fire - at least in this series.

WHAT DO JOBLESS CLAIMS MEASURE?

The US Jobless Claims indicator is a high-frequency economic report that tracks how many people are applying for state unemployment benefits. It is considered one of the most timely gauges of the health of the US labor market because it is released every Thursday at 8:30 a.m. ET, providing data that is only a few days old. The report, issued by the Department of Labor, is divided into two primary categories:

• Initial Jobless Claims

The number of new (first-time)…

• Prior was -72.9B
• Goods trade -80.8B vs -98.54B

This is a better start for Q1 after a big negative surprise in late 2025 on trade.

The U.S. international trade report, published jointly by the Census Bureau and the Bureau of Economic Analysis, tracks the monthly flow of goods and services between the United States and its trading partners. It is a key input to GDP calculations and a closely watched barometer of global demand and competitiveness.

In December 2025, the goods and services deficit widened sharply to $70.3 billion, up from $53.0 billion in November and well above the consensus forecast of $55.5 billion. Exports fell 1.7 percent to $287.3 billion, dragged down by a large decline in nonmonetary gold shipments, while imports rose 3.6…

• Iran operations to take weeks, not months
• Navy escort will happen relatively soon
• Escorts can't happen now
• Hormuz tanker escort likely by the end of the month
• You will see US working with other countries to reopen the Strait of Hormuz
• Short term disruption is needed for long term security
• Russia is not getting sanctions relief

In two days it's going to be already two weeks since the US-Iran war started, and it's hard to see a quick end to it at this point. Markets have been the best tool to change Trump's policies as we've seen time and time again last year with tariffs.

We saw a partial fold from Trump on Monday when oil prices jumped to triple digit levels and stock markets fell into new weekly lows, but it wasn't enough to end the…

• India's inflation rate increases to 3.2% in February, slightly above consensus
• India reportedly sees first oil vessel reach its port since the US-Iran conflict started
• US futures step with caution as Middle East conflict drags on
• The S&P 500 bias turns bearish again as traders don't buy Trump's jawboning anymore
• GBPUSD rejects a major trendline as US dollar bids return amid renewed risk aversion
• IEA chief confirms release of 400 million barrels in strategic in oil reserves
• Gold fails to sustain the breakout as prospects for a quick end to the war fade
• What are the main events for today?
• Middle East energy disruption shifts EUR/USD risks to the downside - Danske
• FX option expiries for 12 March 10am New York cut
• Oil prices continue to be the tail…

• CPI Y/Y 3.2% vs 3.1% expected
• Prior 2.1% (revised to 2.7%)

India’s retail inflation accelerated more than expected in February, reaching 3.21% on an annual basis. This follows a revised reading of 2.74% in January and surpasses the 3.1% consensus estimate predicted by economists.

The latest data, released by the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI) on Thursday, marks the second month of reporting under India's newly revised Consumer Price Index (CPI) framework, which recently shifted its base year from 2012 to 2024.

The primary catalyst for the uptick was a jump in food prices. Inflation for the Consumer Food Price Index (CFPI) rose to 3.47% in February, a significant increase from the 2.13% recorded in January.

Under…

• CPI Y/Y 3.2% vs 3.1% expected
• Prior 2.1% (revised to 2.7%)

India’s retail inflation accelerated more than expected in February, reaching 3.21% on an annual basis. This follows a revised reading of 2.74% in January and surpasses the 3.1% consensus estimate predicted by economists.

The latest data, released by the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI) on Thursday, marks the second month of reporting under India's newly revised Consumer Price Index (CPI) framework, which recently shifted its base year from 2012 to 2024.

The primary catalyst for the uptick was a jump in food prices. Inflation for the Consumer Food Price Index (CFPI) rose to 3.47% in February, a significant increase from the 2.13% recorded in January.

Under…

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