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The PBOC allows the yuan to fluctuate within a +/- 2% range, around this reference rate. More here on this.
Gold is trading as a rates and dollar story for now, with futures sliding to their lowest since early August on Monday as Iran headlines, higher oil and Fed hike odds above 70% for October lifted yields. That keeps the $4,000 area in focus as a psychological floor, and a break below it would test the idea that structural demand can offset a hawkish Fed. Any pullback in real yields or the dollar, for example after payrolls or a softer inflation print, is the most likely trigger for a rebound.
State Street sees gold's slide towards $4,000 as a rates-driven wobble, with China, ETF buyers and fiscal worries still pointing towards $5,000.
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A listing at the reported scale would set the first public-market benchmark for a pure-play AI lab, so the prospectus numbers are likely to be read across AI and chip stocks, which have sold off recently. The SpaceX debut gives investors a reference for how a mega-IPO trades after pricing, and a large new supply of AI equity, followed by a possible OpenAI listing, could weigh on existing AI names if appetite for the trade fades. The reported delay until after the midterms leaves time for rates, AI sentiment and the compute spending debate to shift before any pricing.
Anthropic's prospectus pairs a 12-fold revenue jump with huge losses and half a trillion dollars of compute commitments, setting up a listing that would test how Wall Street…
Dyed diesel does nothing to add barrels, so the market is likely to read it as a demand-side and political signal, not a supply fix, which leaves distillate tightness as the main support for crude. The bigger price risk remains the export ban debate: talk of it has already widened the Brent premium over WTI, and a formal move would push that spread and global diesel margins higher while pressuring US refiners' crude runs. Any sign that Washington prefers tax relief to export curbs could ease the fear of a ban, but it would not touch the Iran-driven supply disruption behind Brent near $105.
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The BRC gauge is a narrow, backward-looking snapshot, so the market is likely to look past the small dip in shop prices and focus on the official inflation path, which is forecast to climb above 4% next year. Energy is the swing factor: oil and gas prices tied to the Iran conflict feed directly into retailers' costs and into the inflation outlook, so diplomacy headlines can move UK rate and sterling expectations quickly. A budget that eases business rates would offer retailers some relief, but it would not remove the wider energy-driven cost pressure.
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Shop price inflation eased again in September, but retailers say they are close to their limit as war-driven costs mount and the budget approaches.
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The curve is now a live read on how the market is weighing Fed tightening against heavy Treasury supply, so moves in the 2s10s gap are likely to be treated as a headline signal for rate-sensitive assets. Higher short-end yields tend to keep the US dollar supported, while equities have so far shown resilience despite Treasury yields near their highest since 2007, which leaves them exposed if hike pricing keeps building. Oil is a background driver, because a rebound in crude adds to the case for tighter policy, so Iran headlines can shift rate expectations quickly.
The curve is flattening because markets expect a tighter Fed, and UBS argues that signals tighter policy rather than recession, unless jobs, earnings and credit start to weaken.
<p…Yields at these levels tighten financial conditions across mortgages, corporate debt and equity valuations, and analysts have said a sustained move above 5.2% would likely keep the US dollar supported while pressuring gold and risk assets. The S&P 500 has so far held within a few percent of its record high, so a further rise in real yields is a test of that resilience. Borrowing costs are already feeling it, with the average 30-year US mortgage rate at around 7.1%, its highest in more than two years. Oil has rebounded on Iran headlines, but the message from the bond market is that supply and Fed policy, not energy, are now the dominant drivers.
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Treasury yields are climbing on real yields and weak auction demand rather than inflation…
With most of the hike already in the price, the Australian dollar reaction is likely to hinge on the RBA's statement and Governor Bullock's press conference, especially on whether November stays open. Oil is the swing factor behind that question, because fuel pass-through is a central part of the RBA's inflation worry, so Iran diplomacy headlines feed directly into rate expectations. A deal that pulls crude lower could ease that concern, while renewed escalation would reinforce it. The global bond selloff and US Treasury yields above 5.2% remain a headwind for AUD/USD regardless of the RBA outcome.
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The message for the Australian dollar is two-sided. A hike today, and any hint of a November follow-up, would support the currency in the near term, but NAB's argument implies the rate premium Australia now holds over other G10 markets could erode if traders begin pricing earlier RBA easing than at its peers. With a 25bp hike close to fully priced, the reaction is likely to hinge on the statement and Governor Bullock's press conference, in particular whether the board keeps November open. AUD/USD has been trading around 0.70, with US dollar strength and higher Treasury yields already a headwind.
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The denial adds another layer of uncertainty to a crude market that has been trading almost entirely on Iran diplomacy headlines. Market reports noted that the original relief reports coincided with softer oil, a slightly weaker US dollar and gains in Treasuries, equities and gold, so a flat denial risks unwinding some of that repricing. The counterweight is that price reactions to Trump's social media posts on the war have been shrinking, according to Axios reporting in August, which may limit the move. For oil, the direction of travel still depends on whether mediated talks make progress on reopening the Strait of Hormuz, and on whether conflicting official messaging keeps a risk premium in the market.
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Trump's flat denial leaves…
The reference to a Tuesday timeline gives oil traders a near-term catalyst, which concentrates headline risk into the next day or so. Language that mediation has become more serious is modestly constructive for those pricing a Hormuz reopening, though Tehran has not detailed its conditions and Washington has publicly disputed the idea of sanctions relief, so the signal is mixed. Crude has been trading in both directions on each diplomatic headline, and that is likely to continue until a US reply either narrows or widens the gaps on sequencing.
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---Iran says mediation through Qatar…