Market News

There is just one key expiry level to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold below.

That being a sizable one for EUR/USD at the 1.1400 level, with the spot price sitting roughly 40 pips away from the strike. The relative proximity and the large size of €4.9 billion is enough to matter and could potentially influence price action ahead of the cut later today.

If EUR/USD does remain more rangebound and extend a little higher in the session ahead, the expiries sitting at the 1.1400 level could exert some pull on price action and also keep any further upside momentum in check. Typically when the spot price gets closer to these sort of expiries, option-related hedging flows may help contain price around the strike rather than encourage…

• Cash rate decision 4.60%
• Prior decision 4.35%
• Today’s policy decision was unanimous
• Since the previous meeting, some of the upside risks to inflation are materialising
• There continue to be heightened uncertainties about the outlook for domestic economic activity and inflation
• RBA remains focused on ensuring that high inflation does not become embedded
• Inflation is still too high; some of the upside risks flagged in August are materialising
• A further tightening in financial conditions is warranted to support a return of inflation to target in a reasonable period
• Will continue to do what is necessary to bring inflation sustainably back to target, including increasing the cash rate target further if needed
• Will be attentive to the data and the…

Heads up for the Australian dollar as we are less than a half hour away from the latest RBA monetary policy decision.

The central bank is widely expected to raise the cash rate by 25 bps to 4.60%, which would mark a fourth rate hike this year and take borrowing costs to their highest level since 2011.

Markets have already fully priced in the move with Australia's four major banks also forecasting a rate hike today. As such, I wouldn't expect the rate hike itself to necessarily be the main market mover here.

Instead, the bigger question is whether the RBA gives traders any reason to believe another hike could follow in November.

Inflation remains the key concern, particularly with higher energy prices adding another layer of upside risk to the…

• Singapore to allocate US$1.1 billion to five asset managers to boost its equities market
• Japan's Katayama says undervalued yen is problematic, agrees with Bessent on cooperation
• Australian household spending flat in August, missing forecasts ahead of RBA decision
• PBOC sets USD/ CNY central rate at 6.7411 (vs. estimate at 6.7177)
• State Street: Gold may test $4,000 on rate fears but $5,000 still possible in six months
• Anthropic IPO prospectus shows $42 billion 2025 loss and $518 billion spending plans
• What is red diesel and why is Trump weighing selling it to curb fuel prices?
• UK shop price inflation slows to 1.4% in September as BRC urges business rates help
• Flatter US yield curve explained: tighter Fed policy, but not an automatic recession call
• <a href="https://investinglive.com/central-banks/ing-cuts-year-end-aud-usd-target-to-0-72-but-sees-an-rba-hike-blocking-a-retest-of-june-lows"…

The market-making sleeve is arguably the sharper signal for traders. It goes at liquidity, the weak spot for smaller SGX names, while the manager funding aims at demand. Together they are supportive for Singapore small and mid-caps, though the effect will depend on how fast the managers deploy capital and how much third-party money follows. The sleeve's size is modest at about $16 million (currency unspecified), so any lift in trading interest is likely to be gradual.

--- Singapore is pairing fresh manager funding with a market-making sleeve, attacking both demand and liquidity in its long-lagging stock market. 

The push comes with the Straits Times Index already near record highs (chart above), though the gains have been concentrated in…

The split between Tokyo and Seoul suggests rate sensitivity, rather than chip demand alone, is setting the tone. AI-linked names look most exposed where valuations are stretched against rising yields, while Korean memory stocks are supported by a clearer demand story. Oil and yields are rising together, which keeps inflation and policy concerns in the frame, and any progress in US and Iranian mediation could quickly change the energy leg. Micron's results are the next test of whether chip strength can hold.

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Earlier from Japan:

• Japan's Katayama says undervalued yen is problematic, agrees with Bessent on cooperation

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Rate and oil worries battered Tokyo's AI-heavy market while Seoul's chipmakers kept the KOSPI afloat, leaving Micron's…

The yen is the main read-through. Katayama's line that an undervalued yen is problematic, paired with her promise of close US Treasury contact, adds to verbal pressure on USD/JPY (around 157 in recent sessions) after August's joint intervention. Her denial that the government is reflationary and her stress on market-set rates may offer a little support to the yen and to JGB sentiment, but with no level or action mentioned, traders are likely to keep testing officials' resolve.

--- Katayama kept to the familiar script of cooperation and communication, but her view that an undervalued yen is problematic keeps the pressure on USD/JPY.

Summary

• Katayama said Japan and the US agreed to step up cooperation, when asked about her September 25 phone…

The flat print gives markets a small reason to question how much further the RBA needs to go, not whether it hikes today, so any reaction is more likely in November pricing and statement tone. Softer domestic demand sits awkwardly with the RBA's inflation worries but fits the argument that the tightening cycle is nearing its end. Higher fuel costs tied to the Iran war inflate some categories in nominal terms, which keeps oil a swing factor for both spending and inflation.

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Earlier:

• ING cuts year-end AUD/USD target to 0.72 but sees an RBA hike blocking a retest of June lows

• NAB sees RBA hike supporting AUD near term, but the medium-term risk points the other way

• RBA preview: 25bp hike to 4.60% widely expected as sticky inflation lingers

• <a target="_self" class="article-link article-link article-link" href="https://investinglive.com/central-banks/sticky-core-inflation-pushes-rba-towards-its-highest-cash-rate-since-2011/" style="box-sizing: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-language-override: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; border: 0; margin: 0; padding: 0; color: rgba(140, 77, 223, 1); cursor: pointer; text-decoration: none; transition: 0.3s"…

The report is an allegation from one party's investigators, and it does not announce any action, so the direct market effect is likely to be limited to headline risk around USDT and other stablecoin issuers. Tether's roughly 60% share of the stablecoin market means any move by US officials to force faster freezes could matter for crypto liquidity more than for the token's peg. The oil angle is the one to watch: the report ties Iran's use of the token to continued oil sales to allies such as China, so tighter enforcement on those payment channels could add to supply friction at a time when Brent is trading near $105.

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Yesterday:

• Tether's $84 million question: whose money did the US actually seize?

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Senate Democrats say Tether's…

The PBOC allows the yuan to fluctuate within a +/- 2% range, around this reference rate. More here on this.

• PBoC injects 90.5bn yuan via 7-day reverse repos at 1.40%
• PBoC injects 698.5bn yuan via overnight reverse repos

Gold is trading as a rates and dollar story for now, with futures sliding to their lowest since early August on Monday as Iran headlines, higher oil and Fed hike odds above 70% for October lifted yields. That keeps the $4,000 area in focus as a psychological floor, and a break below it would test the idea that structural demand can offset a hawkish Fed. Any pullback in real yields or the dollar, for example after payrolls or a softer inflation print, is the most likely trigger for a rebound.

State Street sees gold's slide towards $4,000 as a rates-driven wobble, with China, ETF buyers and fiscal worries still pointing towards $5,000.

Summary:

• State Street Investment Management's head of gold strategy told Kitco that rising rate expectations…

A listing at the reported scale would set the first public-market benchmark for a pure-play AI lab, so the prospectus numbers are likely to be read across AI and chip stocks, which have sold off recently. The SpaceX debut gives investors a reference for how a mega-IPO trades after pricing, and a large new supply of AI equity, followed by a possible OpenAI listing, could weigh on existing AI names if appetite for the trade fades. The reported delay until after the midterms leaves time for rates, AI sentiment and the compute spending debate to shift before any pricing.

Anthropic's prospectus pairs a 12-fold revenue jump with huge losses and half a trillion dollars of compute commitments, setting up a listing that would test how Wall Street…