Market News

•  Asian Stock Markets : Nikkei down 1.76%, Shanghai Composite down 0.64 Hang Seng down 1.27% ASX down 1.20%
• Commodities : Gold at $5,158.39 (-0.41%) Silver at $85.105 (-0.62%), Brent Oil at $100.43 (9.22%), WTI Oil at $94.43 (8.21%)
• Rates : US 10-year yield at 4.238, UK 10-year yield at 4.6840, Germany 10-year yield at 2.9318

• (USD) Core CPI m/m 0.2%  to 0.2%  expected
• (USD) CPI m/m 0.3%  to 0.3%  expected
• (USD) CPI y/y 2.4%  to 2.4%  expected

Asia-Pacific markets declined on Thursday as investors reacted to volatile oil prices and rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. The uncertainty comes despite a major announcement by the U.S. and its allies to…

•  Asian Stock Markets : Nikkei down 1.76%, Shanghai Composite down 0.64 Hang Seng down 1.27% ASX down 1.20%
• Commodities : Gold at $5,158.39 (-0.41%) Silver at $85.105 (-0.62%), Brent Oil at $100.43 (9.22%), WTI Oil at $94.43 (8.21%)
• Rates : US 10-year yield at 4.238, UK 10-year yield at 4.6840, Germany 10-year yield at 2.9318

• (USD) Core CPI m/m 0.2%  to 0.2%  expected
• (USD) CPI m/m 0.3%  to 0.3%  expected
• (USD) CPI y/y 2.4%  to 2.4%  expected

Asia-Pacific markets declined on Thursday as investors reacted to volatile oil prices and rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. The uncertainty comes despite a major announcement by the U.S. and its allies to…

US Stocks Mixed as Oil Rallies and War Continues – Dow down 0.6%
US equity markets experienced another choppy trading session overnight as investors continued to monitor developments in the Middle East. The Dow Jones led the declines, falling 0.61% to close at 47,417, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq closed near flat. The S&P slipped 0.08% to finish at 6,775, while the Nasdaq managed to edge slightly higher, rising 0.08% to end the session at 22,716. In currency markets, the US Dollar eventually strengthened in whippy trading during the day, with the DXY rising 0.35% to 99.26 by the close as higher Treasury yields supported the greenback. US bond markets saw yields push higher again as traders continued to scale back expectations for Federal…

IC Markets Global – Asia Fundamental Forecast | 12 March 2026

What happened in the U.S. session?

February’s CPI inflation figures, alongside OPEC’s monthly oil market report, EIA weekly U.S. oil inventories, and U.S. federal budget data, collectively drove significant market reactions. These releases heightened focus on inflation trends, energy supply dynamics, and fiscal health, with CPI outcomes particularly pivotal for gauging Federal Reserve rate path expectations.

What does it mean for the Asia Session?

Ongoing Middle East tensions, particularly US-Iran developments, as President Trump’s hints at a potential war end have spurred partial market rebounds, but oil prices remain volatile above $85-$100 per barrel for WTI/Brent amid…

• Prior +2.3%
• HICP +2.5% vs +2.5% y/y prelim
• Prior +2.4%
• Core CPI +2.7% vs +2.6% y/y prior

No changes to the preliminary estimates here. As mentioned for the French CPI, the data hasn't been much of importance for the market as the focus remains on the US-Iran war and the disruption in the Strait of Hormuz which is keeping oil prices elevated.

The market is pricing in two rate hikes for the ECB by year-end. In my opinion, these expectations are overblown as that would just increase the pressure on stock markets, tighten financial conditions further and exacerbate the negative impact on the broader economy.

• Prior +0.3%
• HICP +1.1% vs +1.1% y/y prelim
• Prior +0.4%

The HICP is the more important measure as that's what the ECB targets. The final figure matches the preliminary estimate, so there's nothing to see here.

The data hasn't been much of importance for the market anyway as the focus remains on the US-Iran war and the disruption in the Strait of Hormuz which is keeping oil prices elevated.

• Prior +0.1%
• GDP +0.8% vs +0.9% y/y expected
• Prior +0.7%

The more detailed breakdown as per the following:

• Services +0.0% vs +0.2% m/m expected
• Prior +0.3% (revised to +0.2%)
• Industrial output -0.1% vs +0.2% m/m expected
• Prior -0.9%
• Manufacturing output +0.1% vs +0.2% m/m expected
• Prior -0.5%
• Construction output +0.2% vs 0.0% m/m expected
• Prior -0.5%

This is lower than expected and it doesn't bode well for the UK economy if we start to see more weakness going forward. We've seen some downside in the pound as weakening growth coupled with higher inflation expectations and rate hike bets is an awful recipe.

The Director of Economic Statistics, Liz McKeown, said: "Growth ticked up slightly in the latest three months, partly reflecting the recovery of car…

• Japan warns on oil price impact, signals FX action as USD/JPY nears 160
• ICYMI - Tesla wins UK licence to supply electricity to households
• US, EU and Japan advance critical minerals trade deal with price floor plan
• Poor US decision-making process underestimated Iran’s willingness to disrupt Hormuz
• PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 6.9007 (vs. estimate at 6.8888)
• FX option expiries 13 March 2026 New York cut (10:00 ET)
• Australia to release 762 million litres of fuel after easing stockpile rules
• Reuters poll: RBA seen raising cash rate to 4.10% on March 17, then 4.35% by end-2026
• US grants temporary license allowing sale of Russian oil cargoes already loaded (oil TACO)
• Five pipelines that can bypass the Strait of Hormuz. But not replace…

Japan trade minister Akazawa:

• Will continue to discuss Japan’s allocation and timing of IEA-led coordinated oil reserves release
• Japanese government, together with private sector operators, will make utmost efforts in securing alternative sources of crude oil.
• Japanese companies are exploring alternative sources for crude oil procurement, including U.S., Central Asia, and South America

ICYMI - Tesla receives UK licence to supply electricity to homes, expanding its push into retail energy.

Summary:

• Tesla Energy Ventures has been granted a UK electricity supply licence by regulator Ofgem.

• The move allows Tesla to sell electricity directly to British households.

• Tesla aims to combine solar generation, battery storage and energy retail services.

• The company will compete with suppliers such as Octopus Energy, British Gas and EDF.

• The development comes amid rising energy price concerns linked to the Iran conflict.

Tesla is preparing to enter Britain’s retail electricity market after receiving regulatory approval to supply power directly to households, marking a new step in the company’s push into energy services.

Britain’s energy…

The U.S., EU and Japan are preparing a coordinated critical minerals trade framework that could include price floors and tariffs aimed at countering China’s dominance in key supply chains.

Japan Times with the info.

Summary:

• The U.S., EU and Japan are preparing a framework for a critical minerals trade agreement.

• The proposal may include price floors and tariffs to counter Chinese market influence.

• Talks are being led by the U.S. Trade Representative with negotiations expected to begin in April.

• The push follows Chinese export controls on rare earths and key minerals.

• The deal could include stockpiling, investment coordination and research collaboration.

The United States, Japan and the European Union are moving toward a coordinated strategy to…