Market News

●         Asian Stock Markets : Nikkei up 0.02%, Shanghai Composite down 1.74% Hang Seng up 0.54% ASX up 0.30%

●        Commodities : Gold at $4,231.90 (-2.06%) Silver at $62.500 (-3.56%), Brent Oil at 99.01 (1.60%), WTI Oil at 94.00 (1.71%)

●        Rates : US 10-year yield at 5.209, UK 10-year yield at 5.3593, Germany 10-year yield at 3.6210

●        (USD)    Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment

        48.1 to 47.4  expected

U.S. stock futures fell early Monday after equities posted weekly gains, as rising oil prices and surging Treasury yields weighed on sentiment.

Dow Jones Industrial Average futures declined 180 points, or 0.4%, while S&P 500 futures slipped 0.4%.…

Monday starts slow with nothing significant in terms of scheduled economic events for the FX market. On Tuesday the highlights will be the RBA monetary policy announcement, Canada's GDP m/m, and the U.S. CB consumer confidence and JOLTS job openings prints.

On Wednesday, we'll get inflation data for Australia following the RBA meeting and for the U.S., the ADP non-farm employment change, core PCE price index m/m and final GDP q/q. Thursday will bring the U.S. the unemployment claims and ISM manufacturing PMI.

Finally, on Friday data releases will include the Tokyo core CPI y/y, the eurozone inflation figures, and the U.S. average hourly earnings m/m, non-farm employment change and unemployment rate. 

Several FOMC members are expected to…

It's only Monday but it feels like markets already have plenty to digest this week.

Geopolitical tensions remain up in the air. Higher oil prices. Surging bond yields. Stocks and gold under threat again. It's all to play for with month-end and quarter-end volatility also set to kick into gear.

But in terms of macro catalysts, the big one is arguably the US jobs report that will only come on Friday.

The main worry for markets right now isn't that employment conditions suddenly look weak. It's almost the opposite.

US economic activity has remained surprisingly resilient despite higher rates, and that resilience is becoming more and more difficult for the bond market to ignore. The September flash composite PMI jumped to 58.4, its strongest…

US Stocks Rally into the Weekend – Dow up 0.9%

US equity markets finished the trading week on a positive note on Friday, with all three major indices advancing as technology stocks once again helped support sentiment. The Dow Jones gained 0.93% to close at 51,828, while the S&P 500 rose 0.51% to 7,743. The Nasdaq also moved higher, adding 0.48% to finish the session at 27,068.

US Treasury yields retreated from recent highs as some buying returned to the bond market. The policy-sensitive 2-year yield fell 7.3 basis points to 4.852%, while the benchmark 10-year yield declined 3.7 basis points to 5.160%. The pullback in yields also weighed on the US dollar, with the Dollar Index dropping 0.25% to close at 101.04.

The yen was a key…

There are just a couple of key expiry levels to watch out for today, as highlighted in bold below.

They are for EUR/USD at the 1.1350 and 1.1400 levels, sandwiching the current spot price within 15-35 pips of the respective strikes. The €4.5 billion expiry at 1.1400 is the standout. It is both exceptionally large and almost sitting on top of current price, while 1.1400 is also an obvious psychological level.

In adding to that, the 100-hour moving average sits at 1.1404 currently. So, that will add a key near-term technical resistance layer in keeping price action capped closer to the 1.1400 region in the session ahead.

As such, the expiry at the figure level could give EUR/USD a gravitational pull towards 1.1400 heading into the cut -…

We'll finally have a notable tech name to watch on the earnings calendar this week.

Micron will be reporting its fiscal fourth-quarter earnings on Wednesday, and expectations are hardly modest.

The company itself is guiding for revenue of around $50 billion, an adjusted gross margin of roughly 86% and adjusted EPS of close to $31.00. Meanwhile, market expectations are also thereabouts with $50.4 billion in revenue and $31.14 in EPS estimated ahead of the earnings call.

The numbers here follows from an already exceptional third quarter, when Micron delivered $41.46 billion in revenue and $25.11 in adjusted EPS.

But with most tech earnings, I think the headline numbers would almost certainly take a back seat. Perhaps the more interesting…

It's a brand new week but same old struggles for gold. The precious metal is kicking things off with another leg lower today, falling below $4,200 to its lowest in almost eight weeks. That as the pressure from the bond market continues to build.

This time around, there is a more meaningful technical break to go alongside it.

For the better part of the past two weeks, we've seen price action consolidate between $4,240 to $4,400. Buyers have stepped in to defend the $4,240 floor on just a few ocassions, with that lining up with the 61.8 Fib retracement level at around $4,241 on the chart. But now, that floor looks to be giving way and is leaving gold trading at its lowest level since early August.

That continues to reinforce the narrative that…

• Nikkei gives up early gains as Nasdaq futures slip before Micron earnings
• Treasury's $202 billion settlement is routine, not a Bitcoin trigger
• Goldman: US diesel export ban would cut US prices about 4%, lift European cost (d'uh)
• China industrial profits rise 4.2% in August, weakest monthly gain this year
• China and U.S. to set up Trade Council and extend trade truce to January 2027
• PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 6.7399 (vs. estimate at 6.7085)
• Gold breaks key support, slides below $4,230 as danger zone gives way
• Japan services producer prices rise 3.7% in August, fastest pace in over two years
• OpenAI agents used aggressive techniques ("borderline hacking") to reach U.N. data site, report find
• BOJ minutes show dissent for faster…

The turn in Nasdaq futures shows how closely Japanese equities are tied to US chip sentiment, so Micron's results on Wednesday are the near-term catalyst. One analyst quoted by Reuters expects the US semiconductor index to stay inside a wide trading range for the next three to four months, and the Nikkei is likely to mirror it. That points to choppy, two-way trade rather than a clean breakout for now. The same analyst flagged a longer-run risk for bank shares, which could lose support once the Bank of Japan's policy rate approaches its terminal level.

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Japan earlier:

• Japan services producer prices rise 3.7% in August, fastest pace in over two years
• BOJ minutes show dissent for faster hikes as price risks skew higher

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The Nikkei's morning…

Repo funding is the part of this story with real substance. Quarter end is a seasonal pinch point for overnight borrowing costs, and the added coupon supply gives dealers more to fund at once, which is why the Federal Home Loan Bank of New York flagged the risk even while calling current conditions calm. A brief spike in SOFR around settlement would be unremarkable and likely to fade. Persistent pressure would matter more, and traders will be watching whether it shows up in Bitcoin funding rates or futures premiums rather than assuming a link exists. Bitcoin's current position near $84,000 already reflects a tougher macro backdrop, with the 10 year Treasury yield at its highest since 2007 and rate hike odds elevated, so any move after…