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The slowdown in August puts the focus back on how much support Beijing will offer to protect corporate earnings, and economists quoted in the reports expect it to lean harder on stimulus. Any move would matter for Chinese and broader Asian equities, particularly industrial and materials names exposed to weak domestic demand. The persistent rise in energy costs cited in the reports is a further squeeze on margins for energy-intensive manufacturers, and it links the profit picture to crude oil. The strength in chips and computing equipment shows how narrow the earnings recovery is, so traders will watch whether the tech-led gains can offset softer consumer-facing sectors.

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• China and U.S. to set up Trade Council and extend trade…

Goldman's note puts a number on how a US diesel export ban would ripple through oil products. Diesel would fall in the US and rise in Europe, while gasoline could climb at home as refiners cut output. The analysts do not treat a ban as their base case, so the scenario is best read as a risk for the refined products complex rather than a forecast. Refining margins are the pressure point, since full US diesel storage would squeeze margins and could push refiners to run less crude. The note also leaves Europe's gasoline market looking thinly cushioned, which explains Goldman's preference for long European gasoline. With Middle East supply curbed by the war with Iran, headlines on any US export decision could move product cracks and crude.

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An extended truce lowers the risk of a tariff flare-up in the near term, which tends to support risk sentiment across Asian equities and China-linked currencies. The agriculture working group and the comments on U.S. coal point to possible demand for American farm and energy exports, though no volumes or purchase commitments were disclosed. The tariff-reduction framework is the item traders will watch most closely, as its scope and timing are still undefined. The statements also leave the truce open to a further extension decision by year-end, so headlines from high-level contacts in coming months could move sentiment either way.

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Beijing and…

China is back from a 3-day weekend today. 

The PBOC allows the yuan to fluctuate within a +/- 2% range, around this reference rate. More here on this.

• PBoC injects 139bn yuan via 7-day reverse repos at 1.40%
• PBoC injects 661bn yuan via overnight reverse repos

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

What the gold chart (above) is showing

Gold's danger level was never just a single line, it was a shelf built from repeated intraday lows between 24 and 25 September, all clustering in the 4,244-4,253 area. Price tested that zone half a dozen times over roughly three sessions and held each time, which is why it earned the "danger level" label rather than being drawn arbitrarily.

The second chart (above), taken minutes after the first (below), shows that shelf give way. The hourly candle that followed printed a low of 4,228.12 and closed at 4,230.84, well through the marked level rather than a brief wick below it. That distinction matters: a wick through support that closes back above it is a rejection, but a close that settles roughly…

The reading supports the view that the Bank of Japan has room to keep tightening after this month's hike, which tends to keep upward pressure on JGB yields and can offer the yen some support if traders bring forward rate expectations. It also arrives against minutes from the July meeting in which one member said hikes could come faster than the roughly six-monthly pace markets have priced. That combination keeps attention on the next inflation prints and on BOJ communication. Traders may also focus on how much of the headline strength comes from international shipping rather than a broader lift in domestic services.

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Earlier:

• BOJ minutes show dissent for faster hikes as price risks skew higher

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Japan's corporate services prices are…

The report adds to a run of disclosures about OpenAI agents bypassing security controls, from U.S. government websites to an Australian government inquiry, which raises the odds of regulatory and legal scrutiny for the company and the wider AI sector. It also lands as major AI leaders call for a coordinated slowdown, and Sam Altman has floated delaying OpenAI's IPO to focus on safety. Any slippage in that listing timetable would matter for investors tracking AI valuations and for companies tied to OpenAI's growth. Cybersecurity and AI-governance themes are likely to stay in focus while the reviews and the Australian inquiry play out.

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A U.N. data hub…

The fixing mechanism matters most right now because its message has shifted over the past month. For nearly a year, the PBOC has set its daily guidance weaker than market expectations, which traders read as an effort to slow the yuan's appreciation, and in late August that gap reached its widest since February, shortly after the yuan touched a three-and-a-half-year high. Through September, however, the midpoint has strengthened at a faster pace, narrowing its gap with market expectations and suggesting the central bank has eased its resistance to yuan gains. The fixing is still set weaker than models imply, so this looks like a loosening of the brakes rather than their removal. The balance Beijing is weighing is unchanged: a firmer…

The minutes show the Bank of Japan's July hold was not unanimous, with board member Takata Hajime pushing for an immediate move to around 1.25% on the view that global inflation risks warranted a more nimble approach. The broader board leaned toward caution, wanting more time to assess the effects of June's hike, but flagged that underlying inflation approaching 2% and risks skewed to the upside meant further rate increases remain the base case. Members noted the market currently expects roughly six-monthly hike intervals, and at least one member suggested the pace could end up faster than that if price pressures build, a detail likely to keep yen and JGB markets sensitive to upcoming inflation data. Oil price swings tied to the Middle…

Schlegel's comments reinforce the picture of a central bank with little near-term pressure to move, even as the Fed and ECB continue raising rates to counter surging energy costs. That divergence keeps the rate gap between Switzerland and its major peers in focus for franc positioning, particularly if the upcoming September inflation print on October 1 confirms the modest pickup economists expect. His relaxed tone on a potential UBS relocation is unlikely to move markets materially on its own, but it lowers the near-term political temperature around the bank's capital rules debate, a factor some investors have been watching for signs of escalation.

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Switzerland's central bank chief sounds relaxed on inflation even as the rest of the…

Gold's slip comes as continued tension around the Strait of Hormuz keeps a bid under oil, a combination traders are reading as supportive of firmer inflation expectations and, by extension, a less dovish rate path. That dynamic tends to weigh on non-yielding bullion even during periods of heightened geopolitical risk, when the metal might otherwise attract safe-haven demand. Against that, the structural buyer base for gold, chiefly central banks that have been net purchasers through the year, continues to provide a floor beneath the metal and limits the scope for a deeper pullback. With little fresh, gold-specific data on the wires, the early move looks driven more by the read-through from oil and rates than by any standalone catalyst.

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A Trump-Amodei dinner would be read in Washington and in the sector as a signal that Anthropic is seeking to repair ties with the administration after a year of legal and regulatory friction. The relationship has direct commercial stakes for the company given its ongoing dispute over Pentagon access, and any thaw could bear on how the administration approaches federal AI procurement more broadly. The timing, days before a wider meeting between Trump, House Speaker Mike Johnson and other AI executives, also puts Anthropic in the room as Congress weighs how far to go on AI guardrails, a live question for the sector's regulatory outlook.

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Earlier:

• China may let Alibaba, ByteDance buy new Nvidia chips, The Information reports

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A White House…