Market News

IC Markets Global – Europe Fundamental Forecast | 10 March 2026

What happened in the Asia session?

Asian markets traded mixed-to-higher as China’s blockbuster trade surplus ($213.62B, exports +21.8%) offset soft imports and supported risk sentiment, while Japan’s below-consensus GDP (0.1% QoQ) lifted Nikkei 225 +3.26% and yen; most impacted were JPY pairs, AUD (China trade sensitivity), Nikkei exporters, and Hang Seng tech amid global cues.

What does it mean for the Europe & US sessions?

Traders should monitor escalating Middle East tensions, particularly U.S.-Iran conflicts, driving oil prices toward triple digits (Brent nearing $100/barrel) and boosting safe-haven demand for gold near $5,100/oz, while pressuring equities and…

•  Asian Stock Markets : Nikkei up 1.60%, Shanghai Composite up 0.39%, Hang Seng up 1.48% ASX up 0.72%
• Commodities : Gold at $5,164.46 (1.20%) Silver at $88.230 (4.40%), Brent Oil at $94.94 (-4.04%), WTI Oil at $91.07 (-3.96%)
• Rates : US 10-year yield at 4.210, UK 10-year yield at 4.6540, Germany 10-year yield at 2.8649

• (JPY) Leading Indicators 112.4%  to 113.0%  expected

Asian stock markets traded mostly higher on Tuesday, supported by positive cues from Wall Street overnight and easing geopolitical concerns. Investor sentiment improved after U.S. President Donald Trump suggested that the U.S. conflict with Iran could end soon, stating that Iranian forces had lost…

•  Asian Stock Markets : Nikkei up 1.60%, Shanghai Composite up 0.39%, Hang Seng up 1.48% ASX up 0.72%
• Commodities : Gold at $5,164.46 (1.20%) Silver at $88.230 (4.40%), Brent Oil at $94.94 (-4.04%), WTI Oil at $91.07 (-3.96%)
• Rates : US 10-year yield at 4.210, UK 10-year yield at 4.6540, Germany 10-year yield at 2.8649

• (JPY) Leading Indicators 112.4%  to 113.0%  expected

Asian stock markets traded mostly higher on Tuesday, supported by positive cues from Wall Street overnight and easing geopolitical concerns. Investor sentiment improved after U.S. President Donald Trump suggested that the U.S. conflict with Iran could end soon, stating that Iranian forces had lost…

US Stocks Close Higher on Peace Hopes – Nasdaq up 1.4%
Financial markets experienced another highly volatile trading session overnight, with sharp swings across financial products as investors reacted to ongoing developments in the conflict in the Middle East. Despite significant intraday losses earlier in the session, US equity markets recovered strongly to close in positive territory after comments from President Trump raised hopes that the conflict could be approaching a resolution. The Dow Jones finished the day up 0.50% to close at 47,740, while the S&P 500 gained 0.83% to close at 6,795, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq rose 1.38% to close at 22,695. Currency markets also experienced choppy conditions throughout the session. The US dollar…

IC Markets Global – Asia Fundamental Forecast | 10 March 2026

What happened in the U.S. session?

markets digested a steady 3.1% U.S. consumer inflation expectations print alongside an aggressive continuation of the conflict‑driven oil spike, which kept stagflation fears front and center. WTI and Brent pushed further toward and above the mid‑90s/near‑100 area, hammering U.S. equity futures, particularly tech, while supporting U.S. yields and the dollar and sustaining elevated gold prices on safe‑haven demand.

What does it mean for the Asia Session?

Escalating Middle East tensions, particularly the US-Iran conflict, have driven oil prices above $100 per barrel and sparked volatility in equities and safe-haven assets like gold. Regional…

China exports surge at start of 2026 as trade surplus widens sharply.

Summary:

• China’s exports surged 21.8% y/y in January–February, far exceeding expectations and accelerating sharply from December’s 6.6% growth.

• The country recorded a $213.6B trade surplus, well above forecasts and last year’s level.

• Imports also jumped 19.8% y/y, suggesting stronger trade flows despite weak domestic demand.

• China’s export strength continues despite renewed U.S. tariffs, with manufacturers shifting shipments toward emerging markets.

• Energy trade data showed crude imports up 15.8%, while refined product exports rose and natural gas imports edged lower.

• Large stockpiles and diversified supply chains may help China weather global energy disruptions tied to…

China’s trade data for January–February came in much stronger than expected.

• Exports (USD terms) rose 21.8% y/y (expected 7.1%, previous 6.6%).

• Imports (USD terms) increased 19.8% y/y (expected 6.3%, previous 5.7%).

• Trade balance printed at $213.62B, well above the $179.6B forecast (previous $114.10B).

• ICYMI: Goldman Sachs & Barclays warn sustained oil surge could push US inflation toward 3%
• Trump advisers urge Iran war exit plan amid epic oil price surge. Epic Blunder?
• Recap - Japan upgrades Q4 GDP to 1.3% on strong investment, Iran war clouds outlook
• PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 6.8982 (vs. estimate at 6.8891)
• Iran plans shipping levies in Gulf. Trump warns massive retaliation if oil flows disrupted
• Australian business confidence turns negative as conditions hold steady (pre war survey)
• Iran rejects Trump’s claims of progress in war, warns regional oil exports could halt
• UK consumer spending remains subdued as inflation fears rise and wage growth firms
• Japan Q4 GDP final revision improves from a porr preliminary result
• Japan…

Japan’s GDP growth revised sharply higher as investment strengthens, but energy risks cloud outlook.

Summary:

• Japan’s fourth-quarter GDP growth was revised sharply higher to 1.3% annualised, far above the preliminary estimate of 0.2%.

• The upgrade was driven by strong capital expenditure, which rose 1.3%, the fastest increase in a year.

• Private consumption also improved, revised up to 0.3% growth, indicating steady domestic demand.

• However, household spending fell 1.0% year-on-year in January, raising concerns about momentum heading into 2026.

• The war involving Iran threatens higher energy costs that could dampen consumption and investment.

• The Bank of Japan remains open to further rate hikes if growth continues broadly in line with its outlook.

Iran signals shipping pressure in Gulf while Trump warns of massive retaliation if oil flows are disrupted.

Summary:

• Iran is reportedly preparing “security duties” on ships linked to U.S.-allied countries in the Persian Gulf, signalling potential leverage over oil flows.

• Iranian sources claim Tehran holds influence over global oil prices through its position around the Strait of Hormuz.

• The Strait is one of the world’s most critical energy chokepoints, carrying roughly one-fifth of global oil shipments.

• Meanwhile, Donald Trump warned Iran would face overwhelming military retaliation if it disrupts oil flows through the strait.

• Trump also suggested the U.S. is not currently close to deciding on deploying troops to secure Iran’s nuclear stockpile.

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