Market News

Australian business conditions hold steady while confidence slips into negative territory.

Note - this survey was taken before the war. With the surge in energy prices confidence will not have improved.

Summary:

• Australian business conditions held steady in February, while confidence slipped into negative territory.

• The NAB business conditions index remained at +7, around its long-run average.

• Business confidence fell sharply to -1 from +4, the first negative reading in almost a year.

• Sales strengthened modestly, while profits held steady and employment eased slightly.

• Labour and input cost pressures rebounded and retail price growth accelerated.

• Investment plans and forward orders improved, suggesting underlying demand remains resilient.

Summary:

• UK consumer spending grew modestly in February, rising 1.1% year-on-year, highlighting fragile household demand.

• Sentiment weakened as the Middle East conflict raised fears of higher fuel prices, energy bills and inflation.

• Retail sales growth slowed sharply, with wet weather and cautious spending weighing on the high street.

• Meanwhile, private sector pay awards accelerated to 3.4% in the three months to January.

• The pickup in wage settlements suggests cost-of-living pressures remain persistent despite easing inflation in 2025.

• The combination of resilient wage growth and geopolitical inflation risks could complicate the Bank of England’s policy outlook.

UK consumer spending expanded modestly in February but remained subdued overall as…

Japanese GDP Q4 2025, final.

0.3% q/q

• expected 0.3%, prior -0.6%

Annualized 1.3%

• expected 1.2%, prior -2.3%

GDP inflation measure 3.4% y/y

• expected 3.4%, prior 3.5%

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External Demand 0% q/q

• expected 0.0%, prior -0.2%

Capital Expenditure 1.3% q/q

• expected 1.1%, prior -0.2%

Private Consumption 0.3% q/q

• expected 0.1%, prior 0.2%

---

I'll have more to come on this separately

Japanese Household Spending January 2026

-2.5% m/m

• expected +0.8%, prior -2.9%

-1.0% y/y

• expected +2.5%, prior -2.6%

Australian consumer sentiment edges higher but households remain pessimistic as inflation fears rise.

Summary:

• Australian consumer sentiment rose modestly in March, breaking a three-month run of declines.

• The Westpac–Melbourne Institute index increased 1.2% to 91.6, though pessimists still outnumber optimists.

• Sentiment deteriorated later in the survey period as the U.S.–Israeli war with Iran intensified.

• Inflation expectations surged to 6.1%, marking the largest weekly increase since the series began in 2010.

• The Reserve Bank of Australia recently lifted the cash rate to 3.85% and warned further tightening may be needed.

• A separate ANZ-Roy Morgan survey showed confidence dropping sharply last week as rising petrol prices weighed on households.

Earlier on Monday Trump did a TACO for the benefit of markets, sending oil down from its highs and boosting stocks:

• US Trump: The war could be over soon

He has since spoken at a Republican conference where he has delivered much more mixed messaging.

Summary:

• Donald Trump delivered hawkish remarks on the war with Iran at a Republican conference, signalling the U.S. intends to pursue a decisive outcome.

• Trump said the U.S. has already achieved major battlefield success but insisted the conflict will continue until Iran is fully defeated.

• He claimed Iran’s drone and missile capabilities are being “demolished” by ongoing military operations.

• Trump argued Iran had been preparing attacks against the U.S., Israel and the broader Middle East before the…

• US stocks rebound into the close as Trump signals war could be over soon
• US Trump: The war could be over soon
• Crude oil futures settle up $3.87 and $94.77
• The good news? Crude oil is -16% off the high.The bad news? It is 10% higher on the day
• Tech turmoil: Financial stocks slump while energy sees a surge
• White House is mulling releasing oil from the SPR, but no formal decision has been made.
• Aureus Greenway shares soar on Trump-backed drone merger
• S&P 500 falls below December lows, opening the door for a retest of November's trough
• The USD is higher but off the highs for the day. What next technically?
• investingLive European markets wrap: Oil prices come off the boil, eyes on G7/IEA action
• Rate cut bets evaporate amid surging oil prices but rate…

The focus is of course the warmongers, not the data. Nevertheless it's a busy data agenda.

We'll get revised GDP from Japan, for Q4 2025. The preliminary reading for this was disappointing. In brief, from the day of the flash data:

Japan eked out weak Q4 growth, but momentum remained weak:

• Q4 GDP barely positive, rising 0.1% q/q and 0.2% annualised, well below expectations.

• Private consumption slowed, up 0.1% q/q amid persistent food price pressures.

• Capex underwhelmed, increasing just 0.2% versus forecasts of 0.8%.

• Exports fell 0.3%, with external demand contributing zero to overall growth.

• GDP deflator rose 3.4% y/y, highlighting ongoing inflation pressures.

Inflationary dynamics remained firm, with the GDP deflator rising 3.4% year-on-year,…

Major US stock indices are rebounding after Trump said that the war could be over soon. He also said that he may look to lower sanctions on Russian oil.

He said he is thinking about taking over the Strait of Hormuz and he has someone in mind to replace the Supreme Leader. Pres. Trump will give a news conference at 5:30 PM>

That sent oil prices lower, and US yields lower as well. The 10 year yield which was close to 4.20% at its highest today is trading at 4.105%. Crude oil which reached the near $120 ($119.48 was the high), traded as low as $81.19. The current price is trading at $87, or -4.76% on the day

The gains are led by the Nasdaq index. A look at the final numbers shows:

• Dow industrial average +239.19 points or 0.50% at…

Pres. Trump has told CBS news: "The war could be over soon"

He says that the Iran War is very complete, pretty much"

• They have no Navy, no communications, they got no Air Force.
• The US is very far ahead of his initial 4 – 5 week estimated timeframe.
• Says that ships are moving through thet Strait of Hormuz right now, but he is thinking about taking it over

The NASDAQ is now up 300 points or 1.33%. The S&P index is up 0.83% and the Dow industrial average is up 0.60%.

Crude oil is now down $-6.60 or -7.17% at $84.67

There is a report that the White House is mulling releasing oil from the strategic petroleum reserve (SPR), but no formal decision has been made.

According to Politico there is fierce opposition to tapping the SPR. Those who oppose tapping the reserve say a release would solve what they consider the underlying problem (war?).

The Trump administration was critical of the by the administration for tapping the SPR after Russia invaded Ukraine. The SPR was at 394,000 thousand barrels at the start of the Trump term. The price of oil went to $55 on a number of dips since then.

The price of crude oil is trading above and below $100 today. The price reached a high of $119.48 overnight. The current US SPR is at 415,000 thousand barrels currently…