Market News

Goldman Sachs is modeling the potential impact of US restrictions on diesel exports—and says the policy could create sharp divergences between domestic and overseas fuel markets.

The bank says an export ban would initially weigh on US diesel prices as inventories build. With storage still available, every week of restrictions could push US retail diesel prices about 25 cents per gallon lower, equivalent to just under 4% of current prices near $6.50 per gallon.

The situation would become more complicated if the restrictions lasted long enough to fill storage capacity. Diesel, gasoline and jet fuel are largely produced together, meaning weaker diesel economics could eventually force US refiners to reduce overall output. That would tighten…

Trump will make an announcement in the Oval Office today. The scheduled time is 2 pm ET but White House events never happen on time. The topic is a $15 billion steel mill in Iowa but reporters will be there and will surely ask him about Iran. In all likelihood he will have the usual rhetoric but it's something to keep an eye on.

WTI was last up 18-cents to $92.59 after rising as high as $96.54 earlier.

Perhaps diplomacy isn't dead. Al Jazeera reports that diplomacy is continuing, citing a US official, and that Trump is prepared to ease sanctions and release frozen funds for progress on the nuclear issue.

There isn't much detail on the report but it's starting to get a wider viewing and it's moving markets.

The report also says the US is continuing 'positive' discussions and adds that Iran is 'flexible' on nuclear but that they're far apart on who takes the first steps.

Irib reports -- and it was confirmed by an Iranian spokesman -- that Aragchi's New York stay has not been extended. he met with mediators today but I imagine they relayed that the US hadn't accepted their proposal and hadn't offered anything constructive back.

Oil shot higher on the report.

• Prior was 11.6
• New orders 30.7 vs 22.0 prior
• Shipments 24.8 vs 14.1 prior
• Employment 15.1 vs 8.0 prior
• Capex 8.5 vs 8.2 prior
• Production 29.5 vs 16.1 prior
• Outlook 8.7 vs 19.2 prior

The production index, a key measure of state manufacturing conditions, jumped 13 points to 29.5, which is a nice pickup but executives remain pessimistic.

Here are the comments in the report:

• Tariffs and fuel prices are affecting incoming and outgoing products/costs. Customers have hit the limit on what they can pay. We are getting pushback and cancellations.

• Fuel costs (diesel, in particular) are adversely impacting our bottom line and that of our customers. We'd welcome a quicker resolution to the…

Iran foreign minister Araghchi remains in New York following the UN, raising hopes for a deal. Oil is higher today after Trump rejected an initial offer from Iran but it looks like diplomacy isn't dead.

I find it very difficult for either side to make a deal at this point, as Iran could see any deal as politically-motivated and short-term given the midterms. If they think that's the case, they will struggle to trust any deal. Both sides are also reloading their arsenals.

We are watching to see if there are any developments coming out of this, as it could be a short meeting if the message from mediators is that Trump rejected the deal and didn't offer anything new. If that's the case, oil could get back to the highs of the day and beyond.…

• Growth has been broad-based across most countries and sectors, we expect this to continue
• Manufacturing is performing solidly
• The labor market remains robust
• The outlook continues to be highly uncertain
• Major tech advancements have not reduced unemployment but the verdict is still out
• We see higher inflation ahead but not signs it is being embedded
• The inflation outlook will be higher for 2027 and 2028 than we expected a few months ago
• We remain in the 'middle path' for mon pol that we laid out earlier this year
• We view a 'measured response' as appropriate to keep inflation in check
• Measured response means that while the shock is too large to look through, we view a measured response as approriate to keep inflation in check

The euro is down 25…

Headlines:

• Gold price breaks below $4,200 as surging Treasury yields deepen the technical damage
• Gold collapses as Trump rejects Iran's proposal to reopen Strait of Hormuz and signals new bombings
• Japanese yen jumps as top currency diplomat Mimura reiterates strong currency alliance with the US
• US jobs report could decide how much higher Treasury yields can go
• Stock earnings pick of the week: Can Micron earnings keep the AI memory boom running?
• Market outlook for the week of 28th September - 2nd October
• BoE's Ramsden warns persistent elevated energy prices could warrant a rate hike

Markets:

• Gold down 3.1% to $4,151
• WTI crude up 3.6% to $95.77
• JPY leads, CHF lags on the day
• 10-year Treasury yields up 3.6 bps to 5.217%
• European equities steadier; S&P…

Diplomatic efforts between the US and Iran could resume as early as Monday or Tuesday, with mediators expected to hold separate discussions with both sides, according to an official briefed on the negotiations.

Iranian Foreign MinisterAraghchi and Qatari mediators are expected to remain in the US as the talks take place. The discussions are reportedly focused on an amended version of Iran's seven-day proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, which Tehran presented on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly.

The development comes after hopes for a diplomatic breakthrough were revived over the weekend, before being hit by Trump's rejection of Iran's initial proposal. The possibility of renewed talks gives markets once again a glimmer of hope.

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW

In terms of idiosyncratic catalysts, Alpenglow, which is Solana's major consensus upgrade, reached the second public test network on September 26. It aims to reduce transaction finality from roughly 12.8 seconds to around 150 milliseconds by replacing the existing TowerBFT architecture with the Votor consensus mechanism. The rollout is occurring in phases and it’s one of the largest protocol upgrades in Solana’s history.

On the macro side, heading into the weekend, the hopes for a US-Iran deal returned after Iran sent a proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz within seven days on certain conditions. That helped turning the risk sentiment around…

BoE Deputy Governor Ramsden maintained a cautious stance on monetary policy, saying he does not foresee the need for further quantitative easing anytime soon while stressing that the inflation outlook has tilted more to the upside.

As a reminder, the BoE held the Bank Rate at 3.75% last week by a 6–3 vote, with three members voting for a 25 bps hike. The MPC highlighted the sharp rise in energy prices caused by the prolonged Middle East conflict and warned that inflation could rise to around 3.75% in Q4 2026 and slightly above 4% in Q1 2027 if current energy prices persist. The Bank also said the longer elevated energy prices last, the greater the risk of second-round effects through wages and prices.

Ramsden's focus is centred on the…

For years, crypto has been trying to convince the world that we need a new way to pay for everything. However, the only problem with that is most of us already have pretty good options.

Let's say I want to buy something online, I can use Visa, Mastercard, Apple Pay or even a bank transfer. They are familiar, quick and generally work well enough. So, imagine telling consumers they should suddenly start paying in stablecoins. It's a slightly difficult argument to make.

But perhaps humans were never going to be the most interesting customer. That designation may actually turn out to belong to AI agents instead.

Last week, BlackRock argued that AI could become an important driver of digital asset adoption. That especially as autonomous agents…