Market News

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW

Crude oil has been under pressure at the start of last week as expectations of a de-escalation and an earlier end to the conflict increased going into the UN General Assembly.

However, those expectations started to fade when Trump reiterated that the US would make a deal with Iran after the November elections. His remarks reduced optimism over a near-term resolution and contributed to a renewed rise in oil prices.

Going into the weekend, the hopes for a US-Iran deal returned after Iran sent a proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz within seven days on certain conditions. Unfortunately, Trump rejected the proposal on Saturday and told reporters…

USD/JPY is starting the new week on the back foot again, and Credit Agricole thinks that traders may be getting increasingly comfortable with a familiar range.

The bank argues that the pair has potentially settled back into the region of 155.00 to 160.00, after the fall earlier this month failed to decisively hold below the 155.00 level. And to the topside, Credit Agricole expects traders to be more cautious about pushing USD/JPY back above 160.00 given the threat of renewed intervention.

Well, that view seems to be fitting neatly with what we have been hearing out of Tokyo as of late. Japan's top currency diplomat Mimura reinforced the intervention message again today, telling markets to take the "very clear" signal from Tokyo and…

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FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW

Bitcoin hasn’t been immune to the deteriorating macro picture in the past few days amid increasing Fed rate hike bets and worsening geopolitical developments.

The negative sentiment was triggered by Trump pouring cold water on expectations of an earlier end to the Iran war when he repeated that the US would make a deal with Tehran after the November elections.

Heading into the weekend though, the hopes for a US-Iran deal returned after Iran sent a proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz within seven days on certain conditions.

Unfortunately, Trump rejected the proposal on Saturday and told reporters that he expected to resume bombing Iran after the midterms.…

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW

Gold came back under pressure last week after Trump poured some cold water on expectations of an earlier end to the Iran war when he repeated that the US would make a deal with Tehran after the November elections. Oil prices, real yields and the US dollar started to rise again after his remarks and weighed on gold.

Heading into the weekend, the hopes for a US-Iran deal returned after Iran sent a proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz within seven days on certain conditions and helped averting a collapse in the precious metal.

Unfortunately, Trump rejected the proposal on Saturday and told reporters that he expected to resume bombing Iran after the…

The RBA looks set to raise its cash rate again tomorrow, but at this stage I would argue that the rate decision in itself is probably the least interesting part of the meeting outcome.

Markets have more or less fully priced in a chance of a 25 bps rate hike, which would take the cash rate from 4.35% to 4.60% - its highest level in almost 15 years.

Ahead of the decision, Australia's four major banks are anticipating the RBA to move with a rate hike tomorrow. So barring a major surprise, the bigger question for markets is what happens next.

Let's start with a bit of background in the run upt to tomorrow's key decision. Over the past month, the case for another RBA rate hike has strengthened considerably. Headline inflation eased to 3.5% in…

Japan is maintaining a close watch on the yen, with its top currency diplomat, Mimura, reiterating that authorities remain concerned about the currency's underlying moves and are prepared to respond if necessary.

Mimura said that Japan, the finance minister and the US have sent a clear message regarding the yen, highlighting the close coordination between the two countries. He also pushed back against concerns that funding constraints could limit Japan's ability to conduct yen-buying intervention, saying he has "absolutely no such concern".

The comments highlights that Japanese authorities continue to monitor the currency closely, particularly the impact of Japan-US interest rate differentials on market moves. Mimura said Japan is always…

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW

USD:

The US dollar has been under some pressure at the start of last week as the sharp decline in oil prices on expectations of a de-escalation and an earlier end to the conflict increased going into the UN General Assembly.

However, those expectations faded after the UN General Assembly, where Trump reiterated that the US would make a deal with Iran after the November elections. His remarks reduced optimism over a near-term resolution and contributed to a renewed rise in oil prices.

Moreover, on Wednesday we got very strong US Flash PMIsthat triggered another hawkish repricing in interest rate expectations, sending Treasury yields to new highs and the odds for…

If there's anything the US-Iran conflict has taught us, it is that the oil market has proven remarkably good at finding ways around disruption.

Barrels are still moving out of the Middle East despite the upheaval around traditional shipping routes. But the main problem is moving them has become extraordinarily expensive.

And that is arguably where the real oil shock is shifting to next. Given enough time, we will be moving from outright supply losses and into the cost of moving energy around the world instead.

Now, oil producers have increasingly relied on ship-to-ship transfers around Oman as the conflict disrupts traditional export routes. Those transfers are expected to reach roughly 2.5 million bpd in September, up from around 1.4…

IC – Asia Fundamental Forecast | 28 September 2026

What happened in the U.S. session?

Strong U.S. business investment and rising inflation expectations supported the Fed-tightening narrative, while falling oil prices and easing Middle East tensions provided some relief to equities and inflation-sensitive markets.

The biggest cross-market signal remains the combination of elevated Treasury yields and persistent inflation expectations, which continues to support a tighter-for-longer Fed outlook.

What does it mean for the Asia Session?

Asian traders are focused on the interaction between U.S.-China diplomacy, Middle East energy risks, and elevated global yields. The reported extension of the U.S.-China tariff reduction and trade truce…

IC – Europe Fundamental Forecast | 28 September 2026

What happened in the Asia session?

During today’s Asia session, markets were driven by several key themes. Weaker growth in Chinese corporate profits weighed on sentiment, while firm industrial activity in Singapore provided some support. Crude oil prices continued to rise, while elevated bond yields and ongoing geopolitical uncertainty in the Middle East kept investors cautious. Asian equities traded mixed, while oil and gold remained supported by demand for safe-haven and inflation hedges.

What does it mean for the European & US sessions?

Today’s key event is Christine Lagarde’s appearance before the European Parliament. Traders will be watching for clues on ECB policy, inflation,…