Market News

• Prior was +2.4%
• Real cash earnings +1.4% vs +0.9% expected
• Overtime pay vs +1.5% prior

Japan's Monthly Labour Survey, published by the Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare (MHLW), is one of the country's most closely watched economic indicators. The report tracks average monthly cash earnings across establishments with five or more employees, encompassing contractual earnings (scheduled and overtime pay) as well as special cash earnings such as summer and year-end bonuses. Because private consumption accounts for more than half of Japan's GDP, the survey serves as a key barometer of household purchasing power and a critical input for Bank of Japan monetary policy decisions.

Throughout 2025, the data told a mixed story. Japan's spring wage…

Well, if there was any question about whether Trump was watching the oil futures open, it's been laid to rest. He wrote on Truth Social:

Short term oil prices, which will drop rapidly when the destruction of the Iran nuclear threat is over, is a very small price to pay for U.S.A., and World, Safety and Peace. ONLY FOOLS WOULD THINK DIFFERENTLY! President DJT

Now, he's obviously right but ending this conflict might not be as easy as Trump think.

What I find most-notable about this message is three things:

1) There is some urgency here with him addressing oil prices less than an hour after the futures open. He notoriously hates high oil prices and endlessly blamed Joe Biden for high gasoline prices and inflation. This isn't going to poll…

Axios reports that Trump is unhappy that Israel bombed 30 Iranian fuel depots on Saturday.

From the report:

Israel's strikes on 30 Iranian fuel depots Saturday went far beyond what the U.S. expected when Israel notified it in advance, sparking the first significant disagreement between the allies since the war began eight days ago, according to a U.S. official, Israeli official and a source with knowledge.

Trump's anger is sure to rise with WTI jumping $15 at the open today to $108 (and as high as $111).

"The president doesn't like the attack on the oil facilities. He wants to save the oil. He doesn't want to burn it. And it reminds people of higher gas prices," a Trump adviser told Axios.

The Trump administration has repeatedly floated plans…

United States Senator Lindsey Graham of South Carolina is a strong Trump supporter and he was on Fox News on the weekend and had this to say:

"If we get in a fight, I want to win it quick. I'm in Miami. You see this hat? 'Free Cuba.' Stay tuned. The liberation of Cuba is upon us... We're marching through the world. We're clearing out the bad guys... Iran is going down and Cuba is next."

I don't think that comes as any surprise but it will really hurt Trump's chances of winning the Nobel Peace Prize. You have to wonder how Cuba is going to take this as well, as it hasn't exactly proven safe or wise to enter into negotiations with the United States.

Cuba's military doctrine has been built around the concept of "War of All the People" (Guerra…

Nonfarm payrolls came in at -92K in February, a massive miss against the +55K consensus. To add insult to injury, the prior two months were revised down by a combined 69K. The three-month average pace of job growth is now running at a paltry 6K.

The unemployment rate ticked up to 4.4% from 4.3%. Not a disaster on its own, but the direction of travel here is not your friend if you're in the soft-landing camp and it came with a drop in labor force participation to 62.0% from 62.5%.

The losses were broad-based. Services shed 61K, goods-producers dropped 25K. Leisure and hospitality got hit for 27K, healthcare lost 19K (healthcare strikes played a role there), and manufacturing gave back 12K. Retail was basically the only sector that managed…

• China gold reserves at the end of February 2026: 74.22 million troy ounces
• In January 2026: 74.19 million troy ounces
• China gold reserves value at the end of February 2026: $387.59 billion
• In January 2026: $369.58 billion

Is anyone really surprised? China has arguably the biggest buyer out there for a while now. And that also might be evident with the kind of price action we've seen with gold in the past week.

The precious metal has been bid up in every Asian trading session all through the week, only to fall back afterwards later in the day. From yesterday: The bid for gold in Asia has been relentless this week

It still wasn't enough to see gold succumb to a 2% weekly loss though, its first weekly drop in five and only the second one so far…

• US stocks close sharply lower. Indices are down for the week.
• Fed's Hammack: Dollar dominance remains intact as Fed stays patient
• Fed's Collins: Expects the Fed rate target to hold steady for some time
• U.S. to launch $20B reinsurance facility for Gulf shipping
• Iran launches attack on US forces in Bahrain, and in Baghdad.
• ECB Schnabel: ECB is still in a good place, but war increases upside inflation risks
• Kansas City Fed Pres. Schmid: Businesses are pausing on hiring
• Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q1 estimate 2.1% versus 3.2% previously
• Fed Gov. Miran: Hesitant to read too much into one month job report
• Crude oil futures stretch toward $90 a barrel
• US business inventories for December 0.1% versus 0.1% expected
• Fed's Goolsbee: The jobs report was a tough miss.…

U.S. officials are set to launch a $20 billion reinsurance facility designed to support Gulf shipping and help restart maritime cargo coverage. The program is expected to be unveiled on Friday by DFC Chief Executive Ben Black and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent.

According to the U.S. International Development Finance Corporation, the initiative will partner with U.S. insurance companies that have already been identified to participate in the program, helping provide additional insurance capacity for vessels operating in the region.

The problem is how many warships are available to usher the ships through the Straits of Hormuz and at what risk?

Nevertheless, oil prices have come off and trades back toward the $90 level. At the corrective…

Reports that Iran is launching attacks on US forces in Bahrain, and also attacking military base housing US diplomatic centered near Baghdad international airport. The price of crude oil is extending above the $92 level. The high price of just reached $92.61. The current price is trading at $92.20. That's up $11.19 or 13.81% on the day.

Earlier today, I highlighted the 5-minute chart and outlined levels that would tilt the bias more toward the downside and give sellers greater control. A key requirement was a move below the 38.2%–50% retracement of the most recent rally. The corrective move off the high dipped into that retracement zone but quickly found willing buyers, keeping the downside momentum in check.

Since then, the price has…

The Atlanta Fed GDPNow estimate for Q1 has declined to 2.1% from 3.2%.

• The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2026 is 2.1 percent on March 6, down from 3.0 percent on March 2. After recent releases from the US Census Bureau, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis, and the Institute for Supply Management, the nowcasts of first-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth and real gross private domestic investment growth decreased from 2.8 percent and 7.9 percent, respectively, to 1.8 percent and 6.8 percent.

The next GDPNow update is Thursday, March 12. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming…

For what it is worth, the US business and retail inventories for the month of December was released:

• Business inventories rose 0.1% versus 0.1% expected. Prior month was revised lower to 0.0% from 0.1%.
• Retail inventories rose 0.4% versus 0.2% last month.

Details:

• Total sales (manufacturers’ shipments + distributive trade): $1,965.9B in December

  • +0.5% m/m vs November 2025

  • +3.2% y/y vs December 2024

• Inventories-to-sales ratio: 1.36 in December

  • 1.39 in December 2024 (ratio declined year over year)

It is early March, so the December data is old as the Census Department continues to catch up after the government shutdown..

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

• Prior was 0.0%

Details:

• Ex-autos 0.0% vs 0.0% expected
• Prior ex autos 0.0%
• Ex autos and gas +0.3% vs 0.0% prior (revised to +0.1%)
• Control group +0.3%% vs +0.2% expected
• Prior control -0.1% (revised to 0.0%)
• Retail sales y/y +3.2% vs +2.4% prior

This is January data, so it's old news and it's not going to change anything for the market as the focus remains on the US-Iran war and the surging energy prices.

The NFP report is also stealing the show with the huge downside surprise in the headline jobs number and the uptick in the unemployment rate.

What does the Retail Sales report measure?

The Advance Monthly Retail Sales report, published by the U.S. Census Bureau, provides the earliest monthly snapshot of consumer spending across retail sectors.…