Market News

• Prior 130K revise to 126K
• nonfarm payroll -92K vs +50 9K estimate
• December was 48K. November was 41K
• Two month that revision:
• Unemployment rate 4.4% vs 4.3% expected. Prior month 4.3%.
• Average hourly earnings 0.4% versus 0.3% expected. Prior month 0.4%
• average hourly earnings YoY 3.8% versus 3.7% expected. Prior month 3.7%.
• Participation rate 62.0% versus 62.1% (revise from 62.5%)
• U6 unemployment rate 7.9% versus 8.1% (revised from 8.0%)

There was some weather. There was some strike effects of around -30K (which will come back).

Headlines:

• Oil prices resume climb to start European morning trade
• Qatar warns that the Middle East conflict could disrupt energy exports for weeks to months
• Qatar reportedly offers to lease LNG tankers as Ras Laffan plant stays shut
• What is the distribution of forecasts for the US NFP?
• Japan reportedly mulls releasing national oil reserves amid Middle East conflict
• Japan finance minister says will respond nimbly to latest market movements
• BOJ policymaker Himino: Underlying inflation gradually accelerating to 2% target
• ECB policymaker Sleijpen: We can tolerate a small inflation overshoot
• Eurozone Q4 final GDP +0.2% vs +0.3% q/q second estimate
• UK February Halifax house prices +0.3% vs +0.3% m/m expected

Markets:

• WTI crude oil up 6% at $86.15, Brent…

IC Markets Global – Europe Fundamental Forecast | 06 March 2026

What happened in the Asia session?

Markets opened amid ongoing Middle East tensions, particularly the US-Iran conflict escalation, with no major new macroeconomic data releases specifically highlighted for that day, though ongoing China National People’s Congress meetings influenced sentiment. Escalating geopolitical risks drove oil prices higher toward $80 per barrel and boosted safe-haven demand for gold and the US dollar, while Asian equities extended declines following Wall Street’s prior drop.

What does it mean for the Europe & US sessions?

Traders should closely monitor the ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict, entering its sixth day, which has driven oil prices higher,…

•  Asian Stock Markets : Nikkei down 0.05%, Shanghai Composite up 0.04%, Hang Seng up 1.77% ASX down 1.20%
• Commodities : Gold at $5,144.01 (1.28%) Silver at $84.630 (2.97%), Brent Oil at $84.47 (-1.08%), WTI Oil at $79.99 (-1.26%)
• Rates : US 10-year yield at 4.139, UK 10-year yield at 4.5440, Germany 10-year yield at 2.8535

• (USD) Unemployment Claims  K  to 215K  expected

Asian stock markets are trading mixed on Friday following broadly negative cues from Wall Street overnight, as investors remain cautious about the escalating conflict in the Middle East. Concerns over supply disruptions pushed crude oil prices above $81 a barrel, although gains in energy stocks…

•  Asian Stock Markets : Nikkei down 0.05%, Shanghai Composite up 0.04%, Hang Seng up 1.77% ASX down 1.20%
• Commodities : Gold at $5,144.01 (1.28%) Silver at $84.630 (2.97%), Brent Oil at $84.47 (-1.08%), WTI Oil at $79.99 (-1.26%)
• Rates : US 10-year yield at 4.139, UK 10-year yield at 4.5440, Germany 10-year yield at 2.8535

• (USD) Unemployment Claims  K  to 215K  expected

Asian stock markets are trading mixed on Friday following broadly negative cues from Wall Street overnight, as investors remain cautious about the escalating conflict in the Middle East. Concerns over supply disruptions pushed crude oil prices above $81 a barrel, although gains in energy stocks…

We're starting to see oil prices approach the highs from yesterday and most notably, WTI crude oil is wanting to hold above the crucial $80 mark. Despite all the volatility and a couple of downside spikes here and there, it's been an otherwise one-sided push higher mostly for oil prices all through this week.

Right now, we're seeing WTI crude oil be up 0.7% on the day to $81.70 while Brent crude oil is up 0.6% near the $86 mark. All of this will just continue to reinvigorate talks of prices potentially hitting triple digits next.

The way I see it, the oil market is basically a translation of the vote of confidence from broader market participants towards the US-Iran conflict. And with weekend positioning risks to consider, traders appear to…

US Indices Fall as War in the Middle East Rolls on – Dow down 1.6%
US equity markets moved lower overnight as the conflict in the Middle East entered its sixth day. All three major US indices closed the session in negative territory. The Dow Jones declined 1.61% to finish at 47,954, while the S&P 500 fell 0.56% to 6,830. The Nasdaq proved comparatively resilient, easing 0.26% to close at 22,748. The US dollar continued to strengthen, with the DXY rising 0.29% to 99.08 as investors sought relative safety in the greenback. US Treasury yields also extended their recent move higher, recording a fourth consecutive daily gain. The 2-year Treasury yield increased by 3.2 basis points to 3.579%, while the 10-year yield rose 4.0 basis points to…

IC Markets Global – Asia Fundamental Forecast | 06 March 2026

What happened in the U.S. session?

U.S. markets on March 5 dipped amid surging oil prices from U.S.-Iran conflict fears, despite steady jobless claims at 213K bolstering labor stability; equities like S&P 500 (-0.27%), Dow (-0.52%), and Nasdaq (-0.31%) were hit hardest, while oil rallied sharply on supply risks, underscoring geopolitics’ dominance over macro data.

What does it mean for the Asia Session?

Ongoing Middle East tensions are driving oil price swings and fragile equity rebounds. Key watchpoints include South Korea’s Kospi, which surged 10% on Thursday after steep losses, supported by stabilizing oil and strong memory chip demand from Samsung and SK Hynix, though…

• Prior +0.7%

Slight delay in the release by the source. UK house prices continue to edge up in February, with the average property price now touching £301,151 - marking a new record high. The annual growth for house prices also accelerated further to 1.3%, its strongest in four months.

Halifax notes that:

"The housing market built on its steady start to the year in February, with average prices rising by +0.3%, following an increase of +0.8% in January. Annual growth also picked up to +1.3%, its strongest rate for four months. Since the start of the year, average prices have increased by around £3,000, with a typical property now costing £301,151.

These latest figures suggest the market has regained some momentum after a softer end to…