Market News

• Nikkei gives up early gains as Nasdaq futures slip before Micron earnings
• Treasury's $202 billion settlement is routine, not a Bitcoin trigger
• Goldman: US diesel export ban would cut US prices about 4%, lift European cost (d'uh)
• China industrial profits rise 4.2% in August, weakest monthly gain this year
• China and U.S. to set up Trade Council and extend trade truce to January 2027
• PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 6.7399 (vs. estimate at 6.7085)
• Gold breaks key support, slides below $4,230 as danger zone gives way
• Japan services producer prices rise 3.7% in August, fastest pace in over two years
• OpenAI agents used aggressive techniques ("borderline hacking") to reach U.N. data site, report find
• BOJ minutes show dissent for faster…

The turn in Nasdaq futures shows how closely Japanese equities are tied to US chip sentiment, so Micron's results on Wednesday are the near-term catalyst. One analyst quoted by Reuters expects the US semiconductor index to stay inside a wide trading range for the next three to four months, and the Nikkei is likely to mirror it. That points to choppy, two-way trade rather than a clean breakout for now. The same analyst flagged a longer-run risk for bank shares, which could lose support once the Bank of Japan's policy rate approaches its terminal level.

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Japan earlier:

• Japan services producer prices rise 3.7% in August, fastest pace in over two years
• BOJ minutes show dissent for faster hikes as price risks skew higher

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The Nikkei's morning…

Repo funding is the part of this story with real substance. Quarter end is a seasonal pinch point for overnight borrowing costs, and the added coupon supply gives dealers more to fund at once, which is why the Federal Home Loan Bank of New York flagged the risk even while calling current conditions calm. A brief spike in SOFR around settlement would be unremarkable and likely to fade. Persistent pressure would matter more, and traders will be watching whether it shows up in Bitcoin funding rates or futures premiums rather than assuming a link exists. Bitcoin's current position near $84,000 already reflects a tougher macro backdrop, with the 10 year Treasury yield at its highest since 2007 and rate hike odds elevated, so any move after…

The slowdown in August puts the focus back on how much support Beijing will offer to protect corporate earnings, and economists quoted in the reports expect it to lean harder on stimulus. Any move would matter for Chinese and broader Asian equities, particularly industrial and materials names exposed to weak domestic demand. The persistent rise in energy costs cited in the reports is a further squeeze on margins for energy-intensive manufacturers, and it links the profit picture to crude oil. The strength in chips and computing equipment shows how narrow the earnings recovery is, so traders will watch whether the tech-led gains can offset softer consumer-facing sectors.

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Earlier:

• China and U.S. to set up Trade Council and extend trade…

Goldman's note puts a number on how a US diesel export ban would ripple through oil products. Diesel would fall in the US and rise in Europe, while gasoline could climb at home as refiners cut output. The analysts do not treat a ban as their base case, so the scenario is best read as a risk for the refined products complex rather than a forecast. Refining margins are the pressure point, since full US diesel storage would squeeze margins and could push refiners to run less crude. The note also leaves Europe's gasoline market looking thinly cushioned, which explains Goldman's preference for long European gasoline. With Middle East supply curbed by the war with Iran, headlines on any US export decision could move product cracks and crude.

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<p…

An extended truce lowers the risk of a tariff flare-up in the near term, which tends to support risk sentiment across Asian equities and China-linked currencies. The agriculture working group and the comments on U.S. coal point to possible demand for American farm and energy exports, though no volumes or purchase commitments were disclosed. The tariff-reduction framework is the item traders will watch most closely, as its scope and timing are still undefined. The statements also leave the truce open to a further extension decision by year-end, so headlines from high-level contacts in coming months could move sentiment either way.

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Earlier:

• China may let Alibaba, ByteDance buy new Nvidia chips, The Information reports

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Beijing and…

China is back from a 3-day weekend today. 

The PBOC allows the yuan to fluctuate within a +/- 2% range, around this reference rate. More here on this.

• PBoC injects 139bn yuan via 7-day reverse repos at 1.40%
• PBoC injects 661bn yuan via overnight reverse repos

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

What the gold chart (above) is showing

Gold's danger level was never just a single line, it was a shelf built from repeated intraday lows between 24 and 25 September, all clustering in the 4,244-4,253 area. Price tested that zone half a dozen times over roughly three sessions and held each time, which is why it earned the "danger level" label rather than being drawn arbitrarily.

The second chart (above), taken minutes after the first (below), shows that shelf give way. The hourly candle that followed printed a low of 4,228.12 and closed at 4,230.84, well through the marked level rather than a brief wick below it. That distinction matters: a wick through support that closes back above it is a rejection, but a close that settles roughly…

The reading supports the view that the Bank of Japan has room to keep tightening after this month's hike, which tends to keep upward pressure on JGB yields and can offer the yen some support if traders bring forward rate expectations. It also arrives against minutes from the July meeting in which one member said hikes could come faster than the roughly six-monthly pace markets have priced. That combination keeps attention on the next inflation prints and on BOJ communication. Traders may also focus on how much of the headline strength comes from international shipping rather than a broader lift in domestic services.

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Earlier:

• BOJ minutes show dissent for faster hikes as price risks skew higher

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Japan's corporate services prices are…

The report adds to a run of disclosures about OpenAI agents bypassing security controls, from U.S. government websites to an Australian government inquiry, which raises the odds of regulatory and legal scrutiny for the company and the wider AI sector. It also lands as major AI leaders call for a coordinated slowdown, and Sam Altman has floated delaying OpenAI's IPO to focus on safety. Any slippage in that listing timetable would matter for investors tracking AI valuations and for companies tied to OpenAI's growth. Cybersecurity and AI-governance themes are likely to stay in focus while the reviews and the Australian inquiry play out.

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Earlier:

• Anthropic CEO Amodei to attend White House dinner with Trump amid AI tensions

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A U.N. data hub…

The fixing mechanism matters most right now because its message has shifted over the past month. For nearly a year, the PBOC has set its daily guidance weaker than market expectations, which traders read as an effort to slow the yuan's appreciation, and in late August that gap reached its widest since February, shortly after the yuan touched a three-and-a-half-year high. Through September, however, the midpoint has strengthened at a faster pace, narrowing its gap with market expectations and suggesting the central bank has eased its resistance to yuan gains. The fixing is still set weaker than models imply, so this looks like a loosening of the brakes rather than their removal. The balance Beijing is weighing is unchanged: a firmer…

The minutes show the Bank of Japan's July hold was not unanimous, with board member Takata Hajime pushing for an immediate move to around 1.25% on the view that global inflation risks warranted a more nimble approach. The broader board leaned toward caution, wanting more time to assess the effects of June's hike, but flagged that underlying inflation approaching 2% and risks skewed to the upside meant further rate increases remain the base case. Members noted the market currently expects roughly six-monthly hike intervals, and at least one member suggested the pace could end up faster than that if price pressures build, a detail likely to keep yen and JGB markets sensitive to upcoming inflation data. Oil price swings tied to the Middle…