Market News

The broader US stock indices have erased their earlier declines and moved into positive territory. The turnaround followed tests of key technical support in each index:

• S&P 500: Fell 43.45 points at its session low; now up 7.59 points, or 0.10%.
• Nasdaq Composite: Fell 229.90 points at its session low; now up 19.65 points, or 0.07%.
• Nasdaq 100: Fell 266.13 points at its session low; now up about 50 points, or 0.17%.

As discussed in the earlier video and post, each index was approaching a support target. Buyers had their shot at those levels, and so far they have taken it.

• S&P 500: The decline found support near the 100-hour moving average at 7667. The index then moved back above its 200-hour moving average at 7681.68. Those two moving averages…

Reuters, citing sources, reports on discussions over a phased arrangement between Washington and Tehran:

• Gulf states reject Iranian control of the strait.
• Iran signals flexibility on fees, not on the Strait of Hormuz.
• Neither side wants to surrender leverage driving diplomacy.
• A senior Iranian official said the most plausible way to end the impasse would be a phased arrangement, with Iran allowing navigation through Hormuz in return for the US lifting its economic blockade and Tehran potentially gaining access to frozen assets.

Analysis: The key word is phased. Iran wants relief as ships regain passage; the US wants passage restored. Neither side appears willing to give up its leverage first. That makes the order of any steps just as…

Reuters, citing sources, reports on discussions over a phased arrangement between Washington and Tehran:

• Gulf states reject Iranian control of the strait.
• Iran signals flexibility on fees, not on the Strait of Hormuz.
• Neither side wants to surrender leverage driving diplomacy.
• A senior Iranian official said the most plausible way to end the impasse would be a phased arrangement, with Iran allowing navigation through Hormuz in return for the US lifting its economic blockade and Tehran potentially gaining access to frozen assets.

Analysis: The key word is phased. Iran wants relief as ships regain passage; the US wants passage restored. Neither side appears willing to give up its leverage first. That makes the order of any steps just as…

Bitcoin’s pullback from this week’s high reached a new corrective low of $82,873 today. That brought the price close to the top of a key swing area between $81,517 and $82,833. Buyers stepped in before the price could move back into that area, and bitcoin has since bounced to around $84,380.

Former resistance holds as support

The bounce took the price back above $83,916, the 38.2% retracement of the decline from the October 2025 high to the low reached in early July 2026. That gives dip buyers two encouraging signs: the former resistance area has held as support so far, and the price has recovered a retracement level it briefly broke.

When a price breaks above a ceiling, traders often watch the first pullback to see whether buyers will…

The broader US stock indices are lower again today after yesterday’s sharp decline. Treasury yields spiked as traders increased their expectations for further Fed rate hikes. Higher yields can weigh on stocks because they raise borrowing costs and make future earnings less valuable in today’s terms. That pressure can be especially pronounced for growth stocks.

Each index is now testing a different downside level. These levels are short-term barometers for traders: holding support could give buyers room to push back, while a break with momentum would put sellers more firmly in control. A brief move below a level is one thing; staying below it adds conviction to the break.

In the video above, I walk through the levels and explain why they…

President Donald Trump is hosting Chinese President Xi Jinping at the White House during Xi’s three-day U.S. state visit. The leaders are expected to discuss trade, technology, Taiwan and the war with Iran. No outcome from today’s talks should be assumed yet.

• Trade starts from a better position than it did a day ago. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Wednesday that the U.S. and China had agreed to extend their existing “Busan agreement” through January 10. That reduces the immediate risk of renewed tariff escalation. The question for the summit is whether Trump and Xi can add anything substantive: more reliable access to Chinese rare earths, progress on agricultural purchases, or a broader trade deal.
• Technology is the next pressure…

Comments from Philadelphia Fed President Anna Paulson cross the wires:

• US central bank may need to raise interest rates again to lower inflation.
• September rate hike helped move policy to better inflation-fighting posture.
• Says she will support doing what’s needed to get inflation back to 2%.
• Best you can say about inflation is that it has not gotten worse.
• Inflation balance of risks shifted ahead of September policy meeting.
• AI buildout helping drive inflation pressures.
• Underlying inflation “remains stubbornly high.”
• Economy resilient and showing signs of increased momentum.
• The labor market is stable.

Analysis: Paulson’s message is hawkish. She sees little evidence that inflation is heading back toward 2%, while a stable labor…

• Prior month 0.643 million revised from 0.607 million

August new home sales beat expectations, according to figures released jointly by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. The July revision also changes the picture: the 6.4% August gain is measured from 643,000, rather than the 607,000 initially reported for July.

August details compared with July:

• Homes for sale:483,000 vs 483,000 last month.
• Months’ supply:8.5 months vs 9.0 months last month.
• Median sales price:$393,700 vs $392,200 last month.
• Average sales price:$478,700 vs $526,400 last month.

Inventory was unchanged, while the faster sales pace reduced months’ supply. The median price was little changed, but the average price fell 9.1%. That…

Comments from Bank of England Deputy Governor Breeden on energy prices and inflation cross the wires:

• Not at all obvious that there is a path to lower energy prices.
• Indirect pass through of energy price rises limited so far, suggests slack in economy.
• The larger and longer the energy shock, the more likely policy will need to respond.
• Balance of risk has shifted; risks crystallise increasingly likely BOE will need to respond.
• You can’t wait too long for conclusive evidence of 2nd round effects.
• I like to focus on what firms say about how they’re approaching pricing decisions.
• DMP survey, PMI, Agents' survey are important for me. 
• Unlike 2022, we are starting at point where policy is restrictive.
• We have to take a meeting by meeting…

The Swiss National Bank left its policy rate unchanged at 0%, as expected. It raised its inflation forecasts slightly, but still expects inflation to average just 0.8% in both 2027 and 2028. Higher energy prices have lifted inflation recently, while the SNB sees only a small increase in medium-term pressure. That gives the bank little reason, for now, to follow the Fed toward tighter policy. (snb.ch)

There was a change in the SNB’s language on the Swiss franc. It dropped June’s reference to an “increased willingness” to intervene in the foreign exchange market. It now says it is “willing to be active” as necessary. Intervention is still on the table, but the change suggests less urgency about franc strength. The franc weakened after the…

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW

Silver has benefited recently from the sharp decline in oil prices as expectations of a de-escalation and an earlier end to the conflict increased. Lower energy prices eased inflation concerns and reduced expectations for more aggressive tightening, creating a supportive environment for silver.

However, those expectations faded after the UN General Assembly, where Trump reiterated that the US would make a deal with Iran after the November elections. His remarks reduced optimism over a near-term resolution and contributed to a renewed rise in oil prices.

Risk sentiment subsequently deteriorated, with silver coming under additional pressure yesterday after the <a href="https://investinglive.com/news/investinglive-americas-market-news-wrap-strong-us-services-pmi-leads-to-a-big-breakdown-in-bonds/" style="color: rgba(70, 120, 134, 1); text-decoration: underline"…

The bond market remains a central story for traders this morning. The U.S. 10-year yield is at 5.1226%, near its highest level since 2007, while the 30-year yield has moved higher as well. Yesterday’s strong U.S. business activity data added to concerns that the Fed may need to do more to contain inflation. Oil is also rebounding, keeping the potential effect of energy costs on inflation in view.

That combination is weighing on stocks ahead of the U.S. opening. At 7:35 a.m. ET, futures were indicating:

• Dow industrial average: −178 points
• S&P 500: −38 points
• Nasdaq: −274 points

The dollar is higher against all seven major currencies in the supplied FX snapshot. The largest move is against the Japanese yen, with USDJPY up 0.28% to 158.74.…