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Crude has been swinging on missile headlines and on diplomatic ones, and this is firmly one of the diplomatic ones. It adds to the oil price downside risk traders face if talks lead to Hormuz reopening. Iran's openness on nuclear inspections matters because it touches a core US demand, so it carries more weight than a general call for peace. A caveat ... the market is discounting words until they come with steps on Hormuz or the blockade. With the midterms now a deadline for both sides, oil is likely to stay very sensitive to any sign of movement from Iran and the US over the coming weeks.

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Earlier:

• Oil jumps to one-week high as Houthi strikes on Saudi Arabia outweigh Hormuz deal hopes
• ICYMI: France to send troops and air defences to Saudi…

A 10-year yield above 5.1% (5.2%+ as I update) raises the discount rate on equities and makes it harder to justify high valuations, especially for rate-sensitive growth stocks. Higher yields also support the US dollar, which tends to weigh on the Australian dollar. The RBA's widely expected hike on Tuesday gives AUD some offset by keeping policy rates higher relative to the US. If UBS is right that October hike odds are overdone, that could reverse quickly: a softer core PCE revision could trigger a sharp rally at the front end of the Treasury curve. The weak five-year auction is worth watching: another poorly received sale would suggest debt supply, not just the Fed outlook, is pushing yields up.

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Bond markets are pricing an October…

A two-month extension avoids a November tariff cliff, but it gives markets no lasting relief, and the January 10 deadline now becomes the next risk event for trade-sensitive assets. The Australian dollar, as a liquid proxy for China's growth, is likely to take its lead from progress at the Shenzhen and Miami summits more than from this week's ceremony. Farm purchases lagging and rare-earth deliveries falling short give Washington grounds to push harder, which keeps risk alive in soybeans and in supply chains that depend on critical minerals. Xi's push for tougher US language on Taiwan adds a geopolitical tail risk that tends to support demand for safe havens if rhetoric escalates.

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Plenty of flyovers and marching bands, not much…

Paris is guarding Yanbu because the port is now the main outlet for Saudi supply while Hormuz is closed. That shows how much of the world's oil depends on that one pipeline. Air defences could reduce the risk that a single strike halts exports, which would limit how far prices spike on each Houthi attack. It does not remove the risk premium: the pipeline runs about 1,200 km across the kingdom, and a port can be defended far more easily than the full route. The deployment also adds a new foreign target in the Red Sea, and the Houthis have vowed to answer escalation with escalation. That keeps Brent's reaction to headlines lopsided, with escalation moving prices up more than calm brings them down.

--- France is putting soldiers and air…

• US stocks finish mixed as Meta’s Muse rally helps mask the losers.
• Iran’s Pezeshkian wants a deal with the US before the midterm elections, NBC reports
• Meta shares approach all-time highs as the Muse rally begins yet another leg higher
• US treasury sells $44 billion of 7 year notes at a high yield of 5.085%
• US/Iran discussed phasing in a deal to reopen Hormuz and end the US blockade
• Bitcoin trades lower but holds support near the high of a swing area target. What next?
• Trump and Xi meet at the White House: What traders should watch
• Fed’s Anna Paulson says another rate hike may be needed to lower inflation
• US new-home sales for the month of August 0.684 million versus 0.615 million estimate
• BOE’s Breeden: Not at all obvious there is a path to lower…

The session showed how finely balanced crude is. Houthi strikes added about $5 at the peak, and talk of a Hormuz deal took roughly half of that back within hours. Targeting Yanbu matters more than the headline count suggests: it is Saudi Arabia's route around Hormuz, so strikes there threaten the main workaround for Gulf supply. After WTI's 13% drop, short positioning leaves room for sharp rebounds on escalation. A credible phased deal remains the biggest downside risk. Record diesel prices and a possible US limit on diesel exports keep refining margins elevated, even on days when crude eases.

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Houthi missiles aimed at Saudi Arabia's Red Sea export route put the risk premium back into crude. Talk of a phased US-Iran deal on Hormuz then…

U.S. stocks finished a choppy session little changed across the broader indices. The Nasdaq Composite and Nasdaq 100 managed small gains, but the Dow and Russell 2000 closed lower. The S&P 500 finished just below unchanged.

• Dow Jones Industrial Average: 51,355.15, down 162.02 points or 0.31%
• S&P 500: 7,704.22, down 1.80 points or 0.02%
• Nasdaq Composite: 26,939.37, up 3.34 points or 0.01%
• Russell 2000: 2,835.58, down 3.08 points or 0.11%
• Nasdaq 100: 30,478.86, up 8.56 points or 0.03%

The small closing changes hide a more interesting session. Earlier, the S&P 500 was down as much as 43.45 points and the Nasdaq Composite was off 229.90 points. Both recovered as buyers stepped in near the technical support levels I highlighted earlier today.…

With 33 of 34 economists expecting a hike, Tuesday's move is close to fully priced. The Australian dollar is therefore more likely to react to the RBA's statement and Governor Bullock's press conference than to the decision itself. If the bank signals it is open to hiking again, AUD could get a boost and front-end yields could rise, as markets price in a November move. A clear "one and done" message could instead take some of the tightening premium out of the currency. Australia's policy rate would also rise further above most of its G10 peers, which supports AUD on the crosses, especially AUD/JPY and AUD/NZD.

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Report via Reuters on its poll. 

Jobs data yesterday won't stand in the way of nrext week's hike:

• AUD little changed: Australia…

When I first wrote about Meta on September 11, the market was beginning to price in the potential of its new Muse AI assistant. Shares had climbed from around $623 to $665, but sellers leaned against a well-defined trend line. The question was whether buyers could get above that line and then take out the next resistance area at $685–$690.

By September 16, the price had reached $690. Sellers leaned again, pushing the stock modestly lower. That pause mattered. A trend does not have to move higher every day to remain healthy. What matters is where buyers show up on the pullback. In Meta’s case, they regrouped near $665 on Friday, September 18, keeping the broader move intact.

The next test came on September 21. This time, buyers pushed…

Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian spoke briefly with NBC News and other news organizations on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly:

• “We wish Americans to return to the MOU before the midterms.”
• “We don’t want it to get to the midterm elections.”

Analysis: The timing is the message. Pezeshkian is signaling that Tehran would prefer progress before the US midterms. For traders, the next question is whether the two sides take concrete steps toward talks. His comments alone do not establish that an agreement is close.

Fox News is expected to air an interview with Pezeshkian at 6 p.m. It is unclear whether these remarks are part of that interview. On their face, his comments suggest he wants a deal before the US midterm…

In this post yesterday, I showed a chart and outlined a key target.  

I commented in the post:

The next upside targetOn the topside, the upper channel trendline points toward the next swing area at 1.41297–1.41488. That is the next target for buyers if the price can stay above 1.4080.If USDCAD can move above that swing area, it would enter the broader consolidation area that reached 1.42474 on June 24. That June high was the highest level since April 8, 2025.

USDCAD held support at 1.4080 yesterday and moved higher. The momentum continued today, taking the price into the next swing area between 1.41297 and 1.41488. The high reached 1.41490, barely above the top of that area, before the price turned lower (see the chart currently below) .

That…

• WI level at the time of the auction: 5.078%
• High yield: 5.085%
• Tail: 0.7 basis points vs the average of 0.2 basis points
• Bid to cover: 2.42X vs the average of 2.49X
• Directs: 30.27% vs the average of 23.3%
• Indirects: 57.2% vs the average of 64.6%
• Dealers: 12.53% vs the average of 12.1%

Auction grade: C−

The auction was a little softer than average. The 0.7-basis-point tail was wider than the 0.2-basis-point average, meaning buyers required a slightly higher yield than the WI level going into the sale. The bid to cover was also below average. Direct demand was strong, but indirect demand fell well short of its average, while dealers took a slightly larger share. Those results tilt the grade below the C that represents an average…