Market News

IC Markets Global – Europe Fundamental Forecast | 04 March 2026

What happened in the Asia session?

Today’s Asia session saw markets grappling with escalating US-Iran tensions, which overshadowed key macroeconomic data releases like China’s ongoing policy signals ahead of the ‘Two Sessions’ meetings (March 4-11) and Australia’s Q4 current account deficit data showing export weakness. Escalating geopolitical risks drove oil prices toward $80/barrel amid supply disruption fears, boosting energy stocks while hammering airline, tourism, and broader equities.

What does it mean for the Europe & US sessions?

Escalating geopolitical tensions from the U.S.-Iran conflict, which have driven a sharp Dow drop of 1,200 points, surging oil prices,…

•  Asian Stock Markets : Nikkei down 3.91%, Shanghai Composite down 1.43%, Hang Seng down 2.85% ASX down 2.02%
• Commodities : Gold at $5,179.66 (1.07%) Silver at $85.093 (1.95%), Brent Oil at $82.60 (1.46%), WTI Oil at $75.36 (1.07%)
• Rates : US 10-year yield at 4.065, UK 10-year yield at 4.4640, Germany 10-year yield at 2.7752

• (EUR) Core CPI Flash Estimate y/y  2.4%  to 2.2%  expected

Asian stock markets declined sharply on Wednesday following weak global cues, as investors grew increasingly concerned about the inflationary impact of the ongoing Middle East conflict, which has now entered its fifth day. U.S. President Donald Trump suggested the war could last four to…

Stocks Hit as Middle East Conflict Escalates – S&P down 1%

Global financial markets experienced a broad-based selloff overnight as escalating tensions in the Middle East dampened hopes of a swift resolution and reignited inflation concerns. Risk sentiment deteriorated throughout the session, with equity markets finishing firmly in negative territory despite a late attempt at stabilisation. During the US session, Donald Trump stated that the United States would escort commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, offering some reassurance to markets. The Dow Jones declined 0.83% to finish at 48,501, while the S&P 500 fell 0.94% to 6,816. The technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite led the retreat, shedding 1.02% to close at 22,516. In…

Stocks Hit as Middle East Conflict Escalates – S&P down 1%

Global financial markets experienced a broad-based selloff overnight as escalating tensions in the Middle East dampened hopes of a swift resolution and reignited inflation concerns. Risk sentiment deteriorated throughout the session, with equity markets finishing firmly in negative territory despite a late attempt at stabilisation. During the US session, Donald Trump stated that the United States would escort commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, offering some reassurance to markets. The Dow Jones declined 0.83% to finish at 48,501, while the S&P 500 fell 0.94% to 6,816. The technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite led the retreat, shedding 1.02% to close at 22,516. In…

IC Markets Global – Asia Fundamental Forecast | 04 March 2026

What happened in the U.S. session?

The U.S. session saw a toxic mix of hotter-than-expected PPI (0.8% MoM), resilient ISM PMI (52.4), and oil spikes from Iran tensions triggering broad selloffs in stocks, yield rises, and USD/gold gains, most impacting energy, equities, bonds, and the dollar amid revived inflation worries.

What does it mean for the Asia Session?

Asian traders should watch persistent Middle‑East‑driven risk‑off and oil‑driven moves, China’s Two Sessions‑driven growth‑target and policy signals, and key data from South Korea (inflation, exports) and China (PMI), all of which will shape whether Asian equities, currencies, and bond markets remain defensive or…

IC Markets Global – Asia Fundamental Forecast | 04 March 2026

What happened in the U.S. session?

The U.S. session saw a toxic mix of hotter-than-expected PPI (0.8% MoM), resilient ISM PMI (52.4), and oil spikes from Iran tensions triggering broad selloffs in stocks, yield rises, and USD/gold gains, most impacting energy, equities, bonds, and the dollar amid revived inflation worries.

What does it mean for the Asia Session?

Asian traders should watch persistent Middle‑East‑driven risk‑off and oil‑driven moves, China’s Two Sessions‑driven growth‑target and policy signals, and key data from South Korea (inflation, exports) and China (PMI), all of which will shape whether Asian equities, currencies, and bond markets remain defensive or…

The New York Times reports that despite publicly refusing to negotiate with President Trump over the ongoing U.S. and Israeli military campaign, Iran appears to have quietly explored the possibility of ending the conflict. According to officials familiar with the matter, operatives from Iran’s intelligence services reached out indirectly to the C.I.A. shortly after the attacks began, proposing discussions about potential terms for ending the war. The communication was reportedly passed through a third country’s intelligence agency.

American officials, however, are doubtful that either side is genuinely prepared to pursue negotiations in the near term. In Washington, the outreach is not being treated as a serious breakthrough, particularly…

• Prior -0.3%

That's a notable bump to start the year and even if you exclude energy prices (+1.3%) from the equation, euro area producer prices were still up 0.6% in January. The breakdown shows increases across the board in the likes of intermediate goods (+1.0%), capital goods (+0.6%), and durable consumer goods (+0.8%). That is all only marginally offset by a decline in prices for non-durable consumer goods (-0.2%) on the month.

But when compared to the same month last year, euro area producer prices are down 2.1%. That being said, it owes much to base effects as energy prices are the biggest drag. The year-on-year reading for energy prices show a 8.9% decline. So if you strip that out, producer prices are actually seen up 1.2% in…

For some context: Saudi Aramco's Ras Tanura refinery forced to shut down after reported drone attack

Even if Iran's offensive threats appear to be diminishing, they are trying to make the most out of it by hitting back at where it hurts most. As a reminder, Aramco's Ras Tanura refinery is the largest oil refinery in the Middle East. As such, this will just continue with the ongoing disruption to the oil market - not least with the de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

The strike above is also confirmed by the Saudi defense ministry, saying that there was "an attempted attack" on Aramco's Ras Tanura refinery. Adding that "the initial evaluation shows it was carried out by a drone". The good news though is that "no damage" is being…

For some context: Saudi Aramco's Ras Tanura refinery forced to shut down after reported drone attack

Even if Iran's offensive threats appear to be diminishing, they are trying to make the most out of it by hitting back at where it hurts most. As a reminder, Aramco's Ras Tanura refinery is the largest oil refinery in the Middle East. As such, this will just continue with the ongoing disruption to the oil market - not least with the de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

The strike above is also confirmed by the Saudi defense ministry, saying that there was "an attempted attack" on Aramco's Ras Tanura refinery. Adding that "the initial evaluation shows it was carried out by a drone". The good news though is that "no damage" is being…

• Prior 54.0
• Final Composite PMI 53.7 vs 53.9 prelim
• Prior 53.7

Key findings:

• Business activity rises for tenth month running in February
• New order growth loses momentum
• Job cuts persist amid pressure on margins from rising costs

Comment:

Tim Moore, Economics Director at S&P Global Market Intelligence, said:

"Business activity continued to pick up across the UK service economy in February, with growth holding close to the five-month high seen at the start of 2026. Survey respondents commented on rising new business intakes and improving sales pipelines. This was linked to greater business and consumer spending, especially in domestic markets. Export orders were relatively subdued, however, and the rate of expansion slipped to a three month…